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Sunday, 17 March 2013

Tennis Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 17th)

What has been a successful week with the daily picks has been the exact opposite when it came down to the outright picks as both the last two players I had in my book were knocked out in the Semi Final stage last night.

That really concluded a poor end to the tournament as Victoria Azarenka's decision to pull out of the event did me no favours. Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych both had chances to win their individual matches yesterday, but came up short and that means it will only be a small profit from the event here.

However, it could be worse as any profit is better than any loss so I won't complain too much.

The two Finals will be played back to back today and while I think Maria Sharapova wins the WTA event, I think the spreads and outright markets have been priced with that in mind and I'll choose to just watch that match. On the other hand, here is my pick from the Men's Final:

Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: If this match had been played at the Quarter Final or even the Semi Final stage, I would have considered Juan Martin Del Potro having a big chance to beat the Spaniard.

However, Del Potro has had to beat the top two Men's players in the World back to back and I just have a hard time trying to figure how he will have recovered physically from a couple of gruelling battles, particularly the one against Novak Djokovic last night.

And it isn't just the fact that he had a long match- Rafael Nadal is not exactly known for shortening points so Del Potro will be forced to go through the pain of long rallies in this one if he is to to beat Nadal.

Rafael Nadal has looked in good form this week and it is correct to think he is back and ready to play a key part in the rest of the season. He has also beaten Del Potro 4 times in a row, although he hasn't met the Argentine on a hard court since the 2009 US Open Semi Final when Nadal picked up just 6 games in a demolition job.

The positives for Del Potro fans is that he is 3-3 on the hard courts against Nadal in his career, although I think the physical toll of playing back to back tough three setters, plus the knowledge of having to go through all that again will prove too much. By a strange quirk, Del Potro has a Grand Slam title but never won a Masters event, although I think his wait will continue for at least one more event today.

MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 20-11, + 17.92 Units (61 Units Staked, + 29.38% Yield)

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