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Saturday 29 December 2012

Weekend Football Picks (December 29-30)

So this is it... The final Premier League fixtures of 2012 are upon us and these are the final picks of 2012 from those set of games. I had an awful week last week which took away all of the profit earned this month with 7 straight losing picks as nothing quite went right.

It is best not too worry too much about that because it has still been a successful 5 months of the season and you just have to take the rough with the smooth.


Fulham v Swansea Pick: Martin Jol must be feeling the pressure somewhat as his Fulham side have been struggling for consistent results in recent weeks, but I do feel this game will present them with an opportunity to pick up three points and keep a nice buffer between themselves and the bottom three sides.

Fulham haven't been the same team of previous years, but that is unsurprising considering they loss the likes of Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey in the last transfer window. However, they have still got enough about them to win games like this even though they could only manage a 1-1 draw with Southampton here on Boxing Day.

One element in Fulham's favour is the fact that Swansea are likely missing Michu who has been an inspiring signing made by Michael Laudrup- without the Spaniard's feel for a goal, I think Swansea will struggle to get on the scoreboard and Fulham will sneak the win at odds against.


Manchester United v West Brom Pick: It was entertaining at Old Trafford on Boxing Day, but Sir Alex Ferguson will not want to be taken through the mill in this game and I expect Manchester United to come out with a little more control of this game.

West Brom have been very good this season and are a real surprise outfit, but they have lost 4 games away from home and 3 of those have come by a couple of goals at least and I fancy United will be the latest side to manage that against them.

United have beaten West Brom by at least 2 goals the last 4 times they have beaten them at Old Trafford and there are still plenty of goals in the side even without Wayne Rooney who won't be back in the line up until the second week of January.

I'll be looking for United to get on the front foot early and try and put this game to bed so they can then start thinking about the trip to Wigan Athletic on Tuesday.


Norwich City v Manchester City Pick: All is certainly not right at Manchester City and I truly believe that Pep Guardiola is being lined up to take over from Roberto Mancini who seemingly has lot the knack of getting the best out of a squad that cost multi-millions to put together.

Their loss at Sunderland hurt all the more with Manchester United's last winner against Newcastle United, but there is surely too much quality for them to continue failing to get the results they need desperately.

This won't be an easy game at Norwich City who have already beaten Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United here this season, although they were defeated by Liverpool and Chelsea. I think they can push Manchester City, but can they get a result?

Pinnacle are offering 2.63 that Norwich can get a result in this one and the current downbeat nature of City and their strangely lethargic performances makes that seem a big price to me.


Reading v West Ham United Pick: This is the biggest game of the season for Reading as I truly believe a failure to win could already signal the death knell for their Premier League future. A 0-0 home draw against Swansea on Boxing Day at least ended a run of 7 straight losses for the Royals, but that might be seen as two points dropped rather than one gained when it is all said and done in May.

I was surprised that Reading have now twice failed to score at home this season in the League, especially considering they have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their 11 home games in all competitions this season, including in losing efforts against Manchester United and Arsenal.

With the injuries in the West Ham United squad, there is every chance that Reading can reach that total again and I think the familiarity of playing West Ham may work to their favour. Reading beat West Ham 3-0 here and 2-4 at Upton Park last season as both were promoted from the Championship and I do think the 2.63 offered by Coral for at least 2 home goals looks a decent shout in this one.


Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: Alan Pardew has been put in his place by Sir Alex Ferguson in the latter's press conference on Friday, but the bigger issue may be a tiredness in the Newcastle United squad that would have come from putting in a big effort in the 4-3 loss at Old Trafford on Wednesday.

At the same time Arsenal would have been resting with their game against West Ham United being called off due to a planned tube strike and that should give the home side enough of an edge to see off Newcastle with a little more ease than Manchester United did.

I expect Arsenal's pace will expose a backline that struggled in that regards against Manchester United, and I also think the lack of creativity in the midfield will make it tough for Newcastle to keep hold of the ball for long enough to do any damage themselves.

Arsenal are 2.10 to win this game by a couple of goals at least and that is what I'll be picking in this one.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: This looks like being a tight, tense game and there won't be much between the sides when the final whistle is blown. In fact, I think it will be so tight that the game will end in a draw.

Everton have been one of those sides involved in a number of draws this season, including here at Goodison Park against Liverpool and Arsenal. I also am not convinced that Chelsea have definitely turned a corner and this looks the type of game where they would drop points.

Both sides would likely be happy with a draw when it is all said and done and it could become a vital point at the end of the season.


Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool Pick: Queens Park Rangers feel like they were very unlucky to lose their last game against West Brom at home and you have to think that Harry Redknapp will send them out with a point to prove knowing that the other sides down the bottom got some very good results on Saturday.

Liverpool are another side that may be looking at the transfer window in a bid to inject more life into a squad that looks a little tired at times. They do look ripe for the upset in this one having been beaten comfortably at Stoke City during the week.

This was also the game that got QPR the belief that they would survive last season and I think they look a big price to repeat those efforts in this one.


MY PICKS: Fulham @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet Fred (3 Units)
Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.63 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Reading Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.63 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Draw @ 3.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers @ 4.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)



December Update15-19-1, + 0.21 Units (42 Units Staked, + 0.05 % Yield)

November Final8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

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