The last three weeks in the NFL, ever since Thanksgiving Day in fact, have been ridiculously hard to negotiate and each week I have had a few crappy things going against me which has made it even tougher.
It's just the way it has gone and what was proving to be a decent season has suddenly gone south very very quickly. Hopefully the next two weeks and the Play Offs will prove to be a better time period.
I will say that you need to be careful in trying to determine the motivation of teams and whether they are still playing hard or not at all when capping the last couple of weeks. Another factor to look out for is the teams that are secure in a certain spot in the Play Offs who decide that they are going to rest their starters or they are going to pull them in games.
Oakland Raiders @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I like the Carolina Panthers in this game to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Panthers are definitely playing better football of the two and are on a bit of a roll at the moment. On the other hand, Oakland have won just 2 of their last 8 games and both of those were against the awful Kansas City Chiefs.
Second, I don't like when teams travel from West to East to play an early afternoon game, but that is exactly the situation that the Raiders find themselves in for this game.
Third, Oakland are just 6-13 against the spread as the road underdog when playing non-Divisional teams.
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I think the Green Bay Packers are going to be far too strong for the Tennessee Titans for the following reasons:
First, the Packers have a lot of motivation for this game as they can give themselves a real chance to still finish with the number 2 seed in the NFC and get the additional time off to rest in the Play Offs. Tennessee don't have a lot left to play for and may be more concentrated on beating Jacksonville at home in their final game of the season.
Second, Aaron Rodgers is 8-4 against the spread when favoured to win by double digits, going 1-0 in that spot this season.
Third, I don't like Tennessee's chances with the number of blow outs they have had against some of the better teams in the NFL and I just don't know how they slow down the Packers in this one.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I know the Dolphins had a big win last week, but I still don't like them as a home favourite and will be picking the Bills to keep this close enough to cover for the following reasons:
First, the Dolphins can still make the Play Offs so the pressure will be on them here and Buffalo would like nothing less than to put out one of their Divisional rivals so should play much harder than they did against Seattle last week in Toronto.
Second, the Dolphins are just 3-11 against the spread as the home favourite in a Divisional game.
Third, Miami are just 10-33-1 against the spread as the home favourite.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers know they are drinking in the last chance saloon when it comes to their Play Off hopes, but they are the better team and Cincinnati have struggled when playing the best in the NFL.
Second, Andy Dalton is just 3-6 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.
Third, the Steelers knocked off the Bengals on the road earlier this season and have now won 5 games in a row in the series, including back to back blow outs at Heinz Field.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Kansas City Chiefs have given up on this season judging by their horrible effort in a loss at the Oakland Raiders last weekend and the focus may be on the end of the season and hoping to pick up the number 1 pick in the Draft.
Second, Indianapolis can clinch a Play Off berth with a win in this one and I think Andrew Luck will make enough big plays to see the Colts pull away in this one.
Third, I know Brady Quinn has screwed me with his mixed performances over the last two weeks, but the guy is terrible and is struggling a lot more without Dwayne Bowe so I don't know how the Chiefs make enough plays to stay in this game if they fall into a big deficit.
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: A lot of credit needs to go to the Dallas Cowboys for their late comebacks the past two weeks, but I still think they are a tough favourite to back so will be picking the New Orleans Saints for the following reasons:
First, as I say, I am not convinced Dallas are ready to be made the favourites in home games where they have disappointed so often. They are just 4-16 against the spread as the home favourite over the last three seasons.
Second, the New Orleans Saints have no pressure on their shoulders and they can match Dallas point for point as long as Drew Brees continues from where he left off last week. Brees should be fully motivated as he gets to play in his home State.
Third, the Saints have won 3 straight games in Dallas and they are 6-1 in the last 7 games overall.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I am going to take the underdog Philadelphia Eagles to make this a tough game for the Washington Redskins for the following reasons:
First, it has been a horrible season for the Philadelphia Eagles, but I expect them to play really hard in their final two games against Divisional rivals as they would love to put the spanner in the works if at all possible.
Second, this is a new dynamic for the Redskins as it will be only the second time that they are favoured on the road- they lost the first time against St Louis and they may just take a breather now that Robert Griffin III has been cleared for them.
Third, Washington know they cannot afford to blow their beans in this one as they have a big game with the Cowboys on deck and I can see the Eagles at least putting in one big effort at home and even grabbing a back door cover.
New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I think the desperate New York Giants will do enough to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Baltimore have backed into the Play Offs, but they are in the Play Offs and may be looking to see how they can get things going for the post-season and not overly concern themselves with this game. On the other hand, the Giants are off a humiliating loss last week in Atlanta and can't afford a loss as wins for Dallas and Washington will see them out of the post-season.
Second, the Giants are 18-10 against the spread as the road favourite in recent seasons.
Third, Baltimore have rarely been set as the home underdog, but they are 2-6 against the spread in that spot when playing non-Divisional teams in recent seasons.
Fourth, the Ravens may be more concerned with their game at Cincinnati next week which could decide the Division and may be overlooking the Giants who need this game a lot more than Baltimore do.
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I am going to back the Chicago Bears to get something going in their bid to reach the Play Offs and win this game with some room to spare for the following reasons:
First, both Offensive Lines have struggled but I would favour Jay Cutler over Ryan Lindley at the Quarter Back position.
Second, I think the Cardinals were very good at creating turnovers last weekend, but I do like Chicago's Defense a little more in this one and think they will create enough short-fields to win this game going away.
Third, the Bears are a decent road favourite, going 8-3-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few years.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I'll have an interest in the Seattle Seahawks in this game to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Seattle have been a really tough home team for years, going 25-12 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons.
Second, this game is more important to the Seahawks than it is for San Francisco and I think they are going to come out to show they are one of the best teams in the NFC and a real threat to reach the Super Bowl.
Third, San Francisco have not won 3 games in a row at any point this season and they are coming off an emotional win over New England when they were pulled back from a 28 point lead but still managed to find some reserves of energy to win.
Fourth, the home team has dominated the recent series by going 6-1 in the last 7 games in this series.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (3 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (3 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
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