The last week of the NFL season is always a minefield to negotiate as you have to keep a real eye on incentive and whether Head Coaches are going to rest players ahead of the Play Offs.
The other factor is whether teams are still playing for their Head Coaches with Black Monday almost upon us. All of this adds up to taking a bit more care than usual in trying to negotiate Week 17.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I'll be taking the underdog in this one to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I am very surprised to see the Buffalo Bills as favourites of more than a field goal- This is a team that has lost 3 straight and shown very little Offensively in those games.
Second, it would be silly to ignore the fact that the Jets have won the last 6 in this Divisional series and they are 8-1 in the last 9. That run includes 4 wins on the road.
Third, I think the New York Jets players are still very much in line with what Rex Ryan wants to do at the club, while Buffalo have looked a little downbeat on how the season has developed.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: I think both of these clubs are locked into their positions and they won't be meeting one another in the Play Offs next week. However, I think the Coaches are taking a different stance on the game so I am taking the home favourites to cover for the following reasons:
First, the suggestion is that John Harbaugh will be resting players as he looks to get his Ravens side healthy... On the other hand, Marvin Lewis has been talking about how resting his starters did no good for the team last season and he will be playing his main men.
Second, the Bengals will want to prove themselves after knocking off the Steelers last week and they will want people to take them seriously by knocking off the other big boy in the AFC North.
Third, the Bengals did lose to Baltimore here last season, but they had beaten them in back to back games at home before that loss.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I'll back the Houston Texans in this game for the following reasons:
First, this game is much more important to the Texans than it is for the Colts- simply put, the Texans need to win to ensure they have home-field advantage in the Play Offs, while the Colts are definitely the Number 5 seed in the AFC.
Second, there is a real suggestion that Indianapolis will rest their starters- their Defense has stunk for the most part this season so I have little faith the second string will be able to stop the Houston starters. Without Andrew Luck, I don't see a backdoor cover.
Third, Houston have always played hard in Week 17 and they are 3-0-2 against the spread over the last 5 seasons in that spot.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: I'll back the underdog to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I hate when a team needs to win- someone much more famous than me once said 'if you need to win, it's probably because you're a bad team'... The Giants need to win and hope a lot of good things go their way, but they have been playing badly in recent weeks so getting almost a touchdown head-start looks big.
Second, this is the Eagles Super Bowl- I think there is a lot of respect for Andy Reid and I believe the team will play hard for him even if they do come up a little short.
Third, the Eagles have owned the Giants in recent games in the series and they are 8-1 straight up in those games.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Chicago Bears are another that 'need' to win to give themselves a chance to make the Play Offs and I like their chances in this one for the following reasons:
First, the Detroit Lions just make far too many mistakes that kills their drives and they don't have any Offensive options outside of Calvin Johnson.
Second, injuries to the Defensive front four will make life a little easier for Jay Cutler to expose a soft Secondary.
Third, the Bears have owned this Divisional series, going 8-1 in the last 9 in the series. They did lose here last season, but had won 3 in a row on the road before that.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots have a chance to wrap up one of the top two seeds in the AFC and I think they win this one in style for the following reasons:
First, I think Bill Belichick can scheme well enough to make it tough for the rookie Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill, while Tom Brady should be able to move the chains much more consistently.
Second, Miami are one of the best underdog teams to back in the NFL, but they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five seasons in Week 17, while going 0-3 as the underdog.
Third, New England won a close one last season at home against the Dolphins, but their previous 2 home wins were by double-digits.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I like the Green Bay Packers in this one for the following reasons:
First, Green Bay have just as much motivation as Minnesota in this game with Play Off implications and they will want that bye next week in the first round of the Play Offs... Then I just believe they are the better team of the two.
Second, the Packers have won 5 straight in the series including back to back wins on the road at Minnesota.
Third, I expect Adrian Peterson to get some big numbers, but I also believe Christian Ponder will make a mistake or two that will be punished by Green Bay and allow them to win this game with the cover.
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers Pick: I like the San Diego Chargers in this one for the following reasons:
First, Norv Turner is almost certainly going to lose his job as Head Coach of the Chargers at the end of the season, but the players do seem to like him and I think they give their all for him in this one.
Second, Oakland have just looked lethargic down the stretch and there are going to be some big personnel changes on the playing field and they look like a team that hasn't cared enough in recent games.
Third, the Raiders are also stating Terrelle Pryor in this one and I believe the San Diego Defense is good enough to take advantage of his inexperience and help the team to the win and cover
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: Some of the line value has gone, but I still like the Dallas Cowboys with the points for the following reasons:
First, this looks like a very close game so getting the points is a big bonus to me. I think both teams will have a lot of success Offensively, so 3 points could be very big at the end of the day.
Second, the Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Washington and may have a better idea of what to expect from the Redskins the second time they play them this season.
Third, Dallas are 11-5 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons.
Fourth, the Redskins are just 4-10 against the spread as the home favourite in recent seasons.
MY PICKS: New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 3 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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