This is the final round of games in the Champions League and the Europa League Group Stage and that does mean there are a number of teams that will rest players in anticipation of domestic League games with most of the scenarios for qualification already completed.
Therefore, you have to be careful in trying to second guess managers and what their policies will be and I would certainly suggest listening to as many press conferences as possible to get an idea as to what each manager is thinking ahead of their games.
Some teams also don't put so much faith in finishing top of their individual Groups as others, especially when you consider Real Madrid will be a 'second seed' when it comes to the draw which takes place on Thursday 20th December for the last 16. As Jose Mourinho said, it isn't much of a 'reward' to win a Group and potentially be drawn with Real Madrid who are certainly one of the leading contenders for the Champions League title this season.
While there are some games that will see much changed line ups, we also can see some strange results at this stage or convenient scores set up by teams... Shakhar Donetsk and Juventus could easily play out a draw which would send both sides through to the last 16 at the expense of Chelsea, regardless of what the current European Champions do in their final game against Nordsjaelland. The layers are aware of the situation so the draw is priced at odds on, prices you would never see in other games.
I have also updated the November final tally and you can see it was a disappointing month, but the season is still heavily in the black and the early results from December have been positive. This is going to be a busy month with the Christmas period meaning a lot of games going through a short period of time so let''s hope the first days of the month was a sign of things to come going forward.
Paris Saint-Germain v Porto Pick: This is one of the few games that has a real meaning behind it as top spot in the Group is up for grabs- Porto will win the Group as long as they avoid defeat in the French capital, while Paris Saint-Germain can steal top spot with a win.
Carlo Ancelotti is under a lot of pressure at Paris after a huge spending spree in the Summer has failed to ignite the results that would have been expecting in the French domestic League and that does mean he is looking for positives wherever he can find them. His side has won 7 of their last 9, but the 2 exceptions have been defeats and both of those have come in the last 4 games.
I think PSG have been a little vulnerable in recent games and that should lead to one of the more exciting games in the evening and I like the chances of goals in the game as both sides could create chances in this one.
Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: While all the talk in Madrid is about whether or not Jose Mourinho will be in charge of the club next Summer, Real Madrid are still concentrating on winning this Group game that doesn't have a great deal of meaning to them.
The side are locked into second spot in the Group no matter what happens in the final games, but that doesn't mean there will be sweeping changes to the first team and the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Kerim Benzema will be playing in this one.
Ajax were outclassed when they first met Real Madrid in Amsterdam and they have been comfortably beaten on their two previous visits to this ground in the last two seasons. Borussia Dortmund were also far too good for Ajax in their last game and I just think it will be a tough day in the office for the Dutch side.
Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City Pick: This might be a dead rubber for Borussia Dortmund, but both teams will still have pride to play for in what could be an entertaining game on Tuesday evening.
Both sides are certainly better going forward than they are defensively, and I think there is a reasonable chance that we will see space in this game and that could lead to a high-scoring contest.
Manchester City have been saying all the right things in the build up to this game and Roberto Mancini must be feeling some pressure from his superiors with another disappointing Champions League campaign under his belt.
Therefore, even getting the consolation prize of a Europa League spot is something that City will want to pick up and I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are at least 4 goals in the game at a decent price.
Montpellier v Schalke Pick: Montpellier may be knocked out of the Champions League and Europa League, but they will be playing for pride in this one as no one wants to end the Group Stage without a win.
They have lost both home games by the same 1-2 scoreline and Schalke certainly have the motivation and the form to think they may be the third side to manage that. However, the German side have lost 3 straight away games domestically which reduces my enthusiasm somewhat in backing them to win this one.
Schalke away games remain high-scoring affairs as they have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 games while they had scored at least 2 goals in 9 straight away games before only managing 1 in their last 2 games.
I think this could be the third high-scoring game of the evening and at odds against it looks worth chancing.
Chelsea v Nordsjaelland Pick: Rafa Benitez was a terrible choice as manager for Chelsea as far as I am concerned and the fans are still upset with the side performing really badly in their first 3 games under the Spaniard's watch.
However, this looks a perfect tonic to their woes which has seen them record just 1 win in their last 11 games in all competitions, despite the fact that Chelsea are very much looking like their defence of the Champions League ends at the Group Stage this season.
Nordsjaelland have conceded at least 4 goals in 3 of their 5 Group Stage games in the Champions League and they do look vulnerable at the back. I expect a strong side to take to the field to build confidence for Chelsea in this game and I think they will likely pull away to a convincing victory in this one.
Manchester United v Cluj: This is a tough game to read as Manchester United will be making wholesale changes to their team ahead of the Manchester derby this weekend. Cluj are a decent counter-attacking side that will likely cause problems for United during this game, but I expect Old Trafford will be a little daunting for them and it will be tough for them to pick up a result that could potentially see them through to the last 16.
I don't have a great angle and insight into the game with changes likely to make this is a 'bitty' game, but Sir Alex Ferguson has suggested Wayne Rooney will start and that is where I will focus my attention.
Rooney got a brace at Reading and he is the kind of player that goes on runs of really good form in front of goal and I think those goals at the Majedski Stadium will set him up over this Christmas period. He will be the designated penalty taker on Wednesday night and will also probably behind any free kicks within shooting range so he looks a lively contender to open the scoring in this one as long as United don't decide to fall behind yet again this season.
Bayern Munich v BATE Borisov Pick: Bayern Munich were embarrassed when they fell to a 3-1 loss in Belarus earlier on in the Group, but they have recovered to the point that a win in this one will ensure they top the Group.
So with revenge for the earlier loss and real motivation behind them to top the Group, I think BATE Borisov could be in a real spot of bother here. Remember when Basel stunned Bayern Munich with a 1-0 win in the last 16 last season? The Bavarians decided to teach them a lesson with a 7-0 home win and they also smashed 6 past Lille earlier this campaign.
I don't think Bayern will score 6 or 7 tonight, but can see them reaching 4 or 5 as BATE have looked a little suspect defensively in their last 3 Champions League games and have already secured a Europa League berth. The home side may be resting some players after a gruelling game with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but I think the prize on offer to win the Group keeps them focused and revenge will be theirs.
Tottenham Hotspur v Panathinaikos Pick: This is the first pick of two from the Europa League and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong for their Greek opponents and should be able to win the game with a little room to spare.
It is true that Spurs only need a point to progress, but it can be dangerous to play for that scoreline as a Panthinaikos win would see them through at Tottenham's expense.
However, Panathinaikos are not exactly the best travellers when it comes to European games and they have already lost 3-0 at both Maribor and Lazio in this Group already to make it three consecutive losses by that scoreline in this competition. They were also beaten 2-0 at Malaga in the Champions League Play Offs.
Gareth Bale is out, but Emmanuel Adebayor is back and this Spurs team still has goals in it. I also expect they could cause plenty of problems on the counter attack with the away side needing a win to go through and they could use the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe to get away another killer goal.
All in all, the 2.35 that Spurs win by at least 2 goals looks a little too generous to me.
Udinese v Liverpool Pick: After playing a lot of fringe players for much of this competition, Brendan Rodgers has taken a strong side to Italy in a bid to help Liverpool achieve the result they need to progress through to the last 32 of the Europa League. It is simple for Liverpool in this one- win and they are through, draw and they need Young Boys to fail to beat an already qualified Anzhi Machachkala, lose and they are out.
Udinese have no permutations to worry about as they have already been knocked out of the tournament, but they are looking to build some momentum after a poor run of form saw them win their first game in 8 at the weekend.
They have insisted they will get on the front foot in this one and this does have the makings of a high-scoring game.
Udinese's last 4 home games in all competitions has seen at least 3 goals scored and 3 of their 5 games in this Group have also seen that number covered. Liverpool themselves have also played in high-scoring games in 3 of their 5 in the Group while 5 of their last 8 away in all competitions has seen goals.
With Liverpool needing to obtain the win to be sure of their place in the last 32, I expect them on the attack to ensure that is done and this could be a game with space to be exploited... However, we have to hope Anzhi don't take a big lead over Young Boys in the other game as that could be infiltrated to the players on the pitch and Liverpool may be more content to settle with whatever positive result they have at that time.
MY PICKS: PSG-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Borussia Dortmund-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Montpellier-Schalke Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bayern Munich - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Udinese-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
December Update: 4-3, + 2.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 26.1 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
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