Sometimes you just have to take your medicine, but the last two weeks has really bothered me with the number of crappy things that have happened to my picks that has left me with two terrible weeks under the belt.
Last week was probably the worst of all as I only liked three picks and all three let me down in ridiculous ways: New Orleans lost by 10 in Atlanta, but should have covered and maybe even won the game as they managed to put up a lot more yards than the Falcons. Just to rub it in though, the Saints scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery in the 4th Quarter which was rightly taken away.
While that officiating was correct, the week before the officials screwed up the spot in the Baltimore Ravens win at San Diego and allowed the Ravens to win the game and beat out my pick again.
Back to last week, Dallas are up 11 points and have run the clock down to 30 seconds left and are punting the ball back to the Eagles who have no time outs left... All they have to do is not give up a punt return touchdown and the Cowboys will likely win the game as there isn't much Nick Foles has done in the last Quarter to suggest he can produce a scoring drive.
It was not to be as Dallas allow the punt return with at least 4 players in a position to make a tackle and it feels like the millionth time that the Cowboys have screwed up a cover by a lack on intensity in tackling and shooting themselves in the foot.
Then the final rub was in the New York Giants game where the Giants dominated the game in time of possession but kept killing themselves with penalties to prevent drives from turning into touchdowns- let me make this statistic clear... It was the most penalties given up by New York in TWO years and I would say the majority of them came on the Offensive side of the ball and the Giants ended up 1 point losers.
Anyway, I had to vent a little as that has ruined all the good work from Week 11 and these are the picks for the coming week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins Pick: I like the underdog Baltimore Ravens to at least cover the spread for the following reasons:
First , Baltimore are a team that has regularly bounced back from losses and haven't lost 2 straight games since 2009. They are also 15-8 against the spread in their last 23 games following a home loss.
Second, I understand it was a tough emotional loss for the Ravens last week against Pittsburgh, but they are still in with a shot of finishing in one of the top two seeds in the AFC so I can't imagine they will overlook this game, while Washington are off 3 successive Divisional wins and could have a let down moment.
Third, I just don't trust Washington as the home favourite considering they are 1-7 against the spread in that spot in recent seasons.
However, Robert Griffin III is playing so well at the moment that I won't go too deep on this pick, especially with the Baltimore injuries to consider on the Defensive side of the ball.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I'll back the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers know they cannot afford to drop any games against AFC teams with their best route into the Play Offs likely going to come through the Wild Card spot. The return of Ben Roethlisberger makes them a more dangerous team going into the post-season.
Second, the Chargers are out of the Play Off race and have looked like a team that isn't focused at the moment with the expected Head Coach change up coming.
Third, San Diego also have a poor record in the Eastern Time Zone for an early game, going 5-8 against the spread in that spot in recent games.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Colts have dominated the recent series between these two Divisional rivals and have already knocked off the Titans on the road this season.
Second, I think Andrew Luck will make more big plays and less mistakes than Jake Locker and that could be the difference between a cover and not.
Third, Tennessee have struggled when playing teams with winning records under Mike Munchak, going 2-8 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of last season.
Fourth, this is the third Divisional game in a row for the Titans so they could be a little physically worn out, while the Colts should be on a high after their come from behind win against the Detroit Lions last week and with an AFC Wild Card spot within their grasp.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: This is a big Divisional game with Play Off implications, but I am backing the Chicago Bears to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Bears beat down the Vikings earlier this season at home and they have won 6 in a row in the series, including on their last 2 visits to Minnesota, while covering the spread in all of those games.
Second, the continuing absence of Percy Harvin is huge for the Vikings and even the fact that Chicago are missing Tim Jennings and Brian Urlacher from their Defense, I still think they can cause Christian Ponder to turn the ball over.
Third, after the fast start to the season, Minnesota have come off the pace in recent weeks and I think they are wearing down on both sides of the ball, although Adrian Peterson is playing at an exceptionally high level.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I like the home underdog to do enough to keep this close for the following reasons:
First, since Cam Newton has arrived at Carolina, the Panthers have been close in all 3 games against the Falcons including a 2 point loss earlier this season.
Second, I think the Panthers can also have more consistent success moving the ball in this one and I also think they are going to leave everything on the line with this being the last big home game they play this season in an otherwise disappointing season.
Third, Atlanta have virtually got the Number 1 seed in the NFC locked up, but I think they may also have motivated Carolina when Matt Ryan told them to 'get off his fucking field' earlier in the season in that 2 point win and I think it could be a tough day for him.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I'll back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, the Eagles are still giving up far too many big plays in the passing game and I think the likes of Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Dallas Clark could all have big games in this one.
Second, how do Philadelphia get up for this game after putting in all they have in their loss to Dallas last week when they led for much of the game?
Third, these two teams are at opposite ends of the market when it comes to results against the spread with Tampa Bay covering a lot in recent weeks and the Eagles being on a 1-6 run.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I'll have a small interest in the Miami Dolphins to stay within the spread for the following reasons:
First, Miami are one of the better road underdogs in the NFL and this looks a lot of points to be giving them despite the trip out West. The Dolphins are 23-9-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last few seasons.
Second, this game comes right in the middle of a tough set for the 49ers and it is easy to think they could overlook the Dolphins after back to back road games at New Orleans and St Louis (where they lost last week) and travelling to New England and Seattle following this game.
Not a lot of reasons for this pick, but it is easy to think the 49ers have a let down spot and not necessary go for a win that covers a big spread.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Pick: Drew Brees owes me after pretty much knocking me out of two Fantasy pools thanks to his performance at Atlanta last week and I think he can bounce back in this one for the following reasons:
First, both Defenses have struggled against the pass so I think this has all the makings of a game that could be decided by which team has the ball last in the contest... Getting more than a field goal in that situation looks very generous.
Second, New Orleans have played well against the Giants and seem to match up well against them, winning the last 3 in a row although 2 of those were in the Superdome.
Third, I just think the Brees performance against Atlanta will inspire him to have a big game against this New York Giants Secondary on Sunday and maybe even get close to pulling the upset outright.
Fourth, the Giants are a poor home favourite and are just 6-11-1 against the spread in that situation when playing non-Divisional opponents at home.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I am backing the road underdog to keep this game close for the following reasons:
First, Detroit have recently given Aaron Rodgers plenty of issues and they have a Defensive front that will cause this Offensive Line all sort of problems.
Second, the Lions have been putting up a lot of yards at the moment and I think they can expose a Green Bay Secondary that has given up a lot of yards, while Matt Stafford should have time to hook up with Calvin Johnson without Clay Matthews in the line up.
Third, the injuries on the Packers Defense will give the Lions a chance to even grab a backdoor cover in this one and this is the last game where they can have a real impact on the Division (Detroit play Chicago in Week 17, but the Bears could already have a Play Off place wrapped up by then and it wouldn't be as important as this game to the fans).
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bwin (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Detroit Lions + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
No comments:
Post a Comment