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Wednesday 27 June 2012

Wimbledon Day 3 Picks (June 27th 2012)

While we are in the early rounds here at Wimbledon, it means there is a lot of focus on the British contingent, a focus that doesn't usually last beyond the first few days as most will have exited by then (apart from Andy Murray who is a regular feature in the second week of most Grand Slam events).

That means the viewers are 'treated' to a bunch of commentators hyping up the potential of the British players and taking a keen interest in how they do, despite the fact that were pay so much interest outside of the four week grass court season.

The last couple of days have provided some stunningly bad insights into how the British players are doing (again I exclude Andy Murray from this criticism as he has achieved plenty in his career already).

We had Sam Smith comparing Laura Robson to Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova- it makes me wonder why Robson is ranked so low if she really is as good as those players and she is 18 now so this is a time for her to make a breakthrough. I actually think Robson has plenty of talent, but she needs to be given better direction on the tactical side and a better game plan in matches rather than 'hit the ball as hard as possible from all angles and don't worry about actually building a point'!!

I also don't think Smith's comparison is healthy for a player that has yet to make such a breakthrough and it would be better to suggest she may be 'under-achieving' to try and get a reaction from her. Robson has probably heard the big comparisons plenty ever since winning Junior Wimbledon and she hasn't progressed enough that people have to take a different tact and expect better from her throughout the year and not just during the time of Wimbledon.

The other player that seemed to get an 'over-hyped' reaction was Heather Watson- some 'experts' spoke of the big shock of her getting through her First Round match, but all failed to mention that she was the favourite in the match with the layers and that anything less than a win may have actually been a disappointing result. Again, I do question why no one tries to push these youngsters rather than praising them for doing what they should be and it is no surprise that Britain have failed to produce consistent stars on the Tour for twenty years.


It was a mixed day for the picks yesterday as the winning line saw two picks in the winning enclosure, while Tommy Haas was a 5 set loser rather than a 4 set winner. However, both Stanislas Wawrinka and Andy Roddick are in tough spots in their matches and that means we could be seeing a slight losing day once it is all said and done.

Wawrinka is probably the more disappointing result as he led 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 after the first three sets were completed, but he struggled after that and failed to record another break and now finds himself down 5-4 in the fifth set with the match suspended at deuce on the Jurgen Melzer serve.


Day 3 Picks:

Shuai Peng - 3.5 games v Ayumi Morita: This is a battle between two Asian players as China takes on Japan in a Second Round match, but I am favouring the higher ranked Shuai Peng to take out Ayumi Morita.

This is actually the sixth meeting between the players and it is Peng who leads the way 4-1, winning the last three matches over the last two years.

Peng actually hasn't had the best of seasons, but she has reached the Third Round or better in six of her last seven Grand Slam events including the Fourth Round here at Wimbledon last season. Morita, on the other hand, has failed to get beyond the Second Round in her last six Grand Slam appearances, while she also lost her last five matches on a grass court before beating Jarmila Gajdosova in the First Round.

The Chinese player has also covered this spread in the last three matches between the two players and in all four wins over Morita and I will look for her to do the same again in this one.


Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: My biggest concern here is that Ernests Gulbis is going to have been celebrating his First Round win over Tomas Berdych and completely forgotten that he has another match to play today.

Gulbis won't be on the big Centre Court for this one either so his motivation may not be at its highest, despite him exclaiming the win over Berdych will be a turning point in his career (there have been plenty of those occasions where Gulbis believes this so take that with a pinch of salt), but he has to consider that the draw has really opened up for him now that he has taken out one of the top seeds.

Jerzy Janowicz is moving up the rankings and the young Polish player should be full of confidence having come through the qualifiers and then beating Simone Bolelli from a set down in the First Round. However, he hasn't played a Main Tour tournament this year before Wimbledon so fatigue may eventually become a problem for him.

These two players have split two previous meetings, with Janowicz winning most recently in a qualifier for the Masters event in Rome, but I expect this one to go in a similar manner to when Gulbis beat the Pole in four sets in a Davis Cup tie a couple of years ago.

I can see the first two sets being tight affairs, but if Gulbis can at least split those, I think he will be good enough to come through and grab the cover.


Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Ryan Harrison: This is a big match for the young American, but I think Ryan Harrison is going to have a really tough day in the office against a motivated Novak Djokovic that will not want to spend too much time on court with the unsettled weather that we are supposed to have on Wednesday in London.

I do think Harrison has a lot of talent and he has done well to reach the top 50 in the World Rankings at just 20 years old, but he might not have pushed on as much as he may have due to a temper on court where he mentally gives up sets.

Harrison seems to get down on himself when he is making errors and that is something Djokovic is likely to extract from him in a set or two as the World Number 1 is a very competent defender that can quickly turn defence into attack.

Djokovic beat Harrison 6-2, 6-3 on the hard courts of Cincinnati last season, and I think he will be too strong for the American again and I believe he will end up getting through 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.


Richard Gasquet - 7.5 games v Ruben Bemelmens: Richard Gasquet can be one of the more frustrating players on the Tour to follow as he seems far too passive and that holds him back from really making another impact at the Grand Slam tennis. The Frenchman has all the talent in the World, but he doesn't always put it together, either losing the real estate contest against his opponent or mentally checking out as he did in the French Open against Andy Murray.

However, I have also been adamant that Gasquet seems to be a little more forward when playing opponents he feels he can beat and I believe Rubens Bemelmens falls into that category.

I actually saw Bemelmens play David Nalbandian at Queens this year and he looked a player that had plenty of good shots and could be awkward with his lefty stance- however, his backhand is more than a little weakness and I expect Gasquet to get plenty of success attacking that wing and that may prove to be the big difference between the players.

Where I feel Gasquet won't be too upset rallying with his backhand to the lefty forehand, the Frenchman's forehand should have plenty of success going into Bemelman's backhand.

The Belgian has done well to get through the qualifiers and a tough match with Carlos Berlocq in the First Round, but Gasquet showed enough in his own First Round match to suggest he is likely to be a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 winner.


Radek Stepanek - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Radek Stepanek is definitely on the downturn of his career, but I still think he will be too strong for Benjamin Becker even if the German player enjoys the grass courts.

Stepanek is one of the few players that is very happy coming to the net at any opportunity and I think that could be a huge difference in this match as I don't think I believe in the consistency of Becker to continuously pass him or make the Czech player hit awkward volleys and that pressure should be able to tell in at least one Becker serve per set.

The Czech also has a very solid record at Wimbledon in the past when he gets through the First Round and he has shown plenty of resolve by coming back from two sets down on occasions here. However, Stepanek needs to be careful as the last two exits from Wimbledon have come when he has been leading 2-0 in sets, but they have come against better players than Becker in my opinion.

Also, Becker's best performances on grass courts have generally come in events outside of Wimbledon and I think Stepanek will be too good for him.


MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units) To be completed 6-3, 6-7, 6-2, 4-6, 4-5 40-40
Andy Roddick - 7.5 games @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units) To be completed 7-6, 4-2
Shuai Peng - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games @ 2.10 Panbet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games @ 1.90 Panbet (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 4-2, + 6.40 Units (11 Units Staked)

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