So how many people seriously though Sara Errani was going to reach the Final of the French Open? She once again showed a lot of heart and determination to see of Sam Stosur, but the Australian is going to be kicking herself that she didn't ride the momentum from the second set to see herself through to her second Final here.
Errani has really played well during the last week when I have seen more of her and her tactics have been spot on, but she is going to face a vastly tougher challenge in the form of Maria Sharapova who looks determined to complete her set of Grand Slams.
Sharapova dismissed the challenge of Petra Kvitova in a surprisingly straight-forward manner and it was a big surprise that her serve held together so well in the conditions we saw today. She will now be a pretty big favourite to win the tournament and I don't think I will be moving out of my position as I have a unit on her to win the tournament in the outright markets.
I would expect the Russian to be the big favourite, but that is going to lead to a different kind of pressure on her and she has failed to win in the Final of Wimbledon last year as well as the Australian Open this year so she has to prove she can cope with this stage. Sara Errani will surely be nervous in her first Grand Slam Final as a singles player, but she has played with destiny on her side as she has overcome big test after big test and I am sure the Italian will come out with full belief she can win this match.
Day 13 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: This is not going to be an easy Semi Final for Rafael Nadal, but his dominance of clay in general as well as against David Ferrer is surely going to give him a huge edge in the match at some point and I think he will be able to win this one in straight sets while covering the spread.
David Ferrer has had a very good tournament, but this is by the far the biggest challenge he will have faced and Nadal is not going to be as happy to gift wrap unforced errors as Andy Murray was in the Quarter Final. Ferrer is going to have to work for every point and we have seen him being successful like that in matches against Nadal in the past, but the best of five sets makes me a little more comfortable taking this spread.
There is likely going to be a point in this match where Ferrer will almost accept that he has lost and that could lead to Nadal running away with at least one set and that should be enough to see him over the handicap.
While they have had some close matches on clay at times, the fact is that Nadal has won the last 15 sets on the surface and that has to garner a reaction from Ferrer if he falls a set and a break down.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ferrer just goes away a little once Nadal gets the conditions read and it could end in a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win for the higher ranked Spaniard as the 'King of Clay' marches on to yet another Final here.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: Novak Djokovic won his last match in five sets and had to save four match points along the way and I think he has a lot more belief against Roger Federer than he did say 12 months ago.
Djokovic has won 6 of their last 7 matches between himself and Federer and he has looked the more impressive for the most part in this tournament. They both went five sets in their Quarter Final, but the difference was that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played lights out tennis against Djokovic, while Federer was fortunate that Juan Martin Del Potro seemed to lose something physically from a position of 2-0 in sets.
I expect the heavier conditions expected in Paris is not going to favour Federer too much and I am sure there is something not quite right with him at this tournament, especially when seeing his matches with lesser opponents.
Federer did hold a 3-1 lead in the head to head between the two players on clay courts, but he then lost in Rome fairly comfortably in straight sets and that is the final mental piece I think Djokovic will need to get the job done.
I would like to see a close contest, but I have a feeling it could be a little anti-climatic and I am favouring Djokovic to come through 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 20-23, - 0.54 Units (71 Units Staked)
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