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Saturday 2 June 2012

French Open Day 7 Picks (June 2nd)

I haven't been more frustrated with results in a long time, but I can have real complaints about Day 6 as it didn't seem to matter who I picked, they would tease me enough before falling short.

Ana Ivanovic, Fernando Verdasco and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga would likely have covered on a different day, but all were guilty of blowing big leads in their matches and the hole I thought I had climbed out of has dragged me back in.

The only saving grace so far in this tournament is the fact that the outright picks are moving on, although both Maria Sharapova and Na Li have tough tests in the Third Round matches they have. I am still confident that both will progress to the last 16, but I think at least one of those players will have a scare in their matches.

Rafael Nadal has looked comfortable in his first two matches and I think he will be too strong for Eduardo Schwank and I haven't seen anything to think the Spaniard will not be contesting the Final on June 10th.


I know it has been a crappy tournament for me so far, but I refuse to hide behind anything and not put up my record. I am very pleased with how my tennis picks have performed since opening up my picks for you readers since the French Open in 2011, and I just feel the luck has not been on my side so far in this tournament, something that should change.

It's easy to ride along the good times, but sometimes you have to take the rough with the smooth and I am trying to keep my thinking clear as we almost get through the first week and enter the second week of the event.

Day 7 Picks:

David Ferrer - 7.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: This is an interesting match considering Mikhail Youzhny has the head to head lead between the players having won 4 of their 6 previous matches.

However, David Ferrer has been playing well and is a much improved player since these two last met in 2009, while Youzhny has definitely come down from the level he could still show back then.

This will be a grinding contest, but you have to think that Ferrer's consistency will be the difference between the two players. Youzhny will have to earn every point he wins against the Spaniard and that could be tough to do both physically and mentally in what could develop into a long match in terms of time spent on the court.

Youzhny has fallen short, fairly comfortably too, against Juan Martin Del Potro, Marin Cilic and Frederico Gil on the clay courts this season, while he was also crushed at this stage by Albert Montanes at Roland Garros last year, and David Ferrer is better or at least the equivalent of all of those players.

A 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 win for Ferrer would not surprise me at all.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: More fool me I say as I am going to back Andy Murray to put in a big performance just two days after admitting he was just a few points from pulling out in a Second Round win over Jarkko Nieminen.

The reason is that Murray's back issue has been with him all season and it seems he was just the unfortunate victim of back spasms after sleeping on it and going on first on Thursday did not help his cause. He has been told that it was a one-off and goes on second on Saturday so will have time to loosen his back if he does wake up in pain again, although I don't expect that.

Some will think the injury was more serious than the back spasms we have been told, but I tend to believe Murray as he looked in decent shape, even if not at 100%, at the end of his win over Nieminen.

I also like Murray's match up against Santiago Giraldo- I hadn't seen much of the Colombian until he beat Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 2010 event at Rome. Giraldo is clearly at his most comfortable when playing on the clay courts, something you would expect from a South American, and he is a flashy shot-maker on the court.

However, he is very inconsistent and someone like Murray could frustrate the life out of him and force a number of errors from the game while also extracting unforced errors as the Colombian is likely going to have to hit the lines a little more to win points.

Murray beat Giraldo for the loss of just three games in Barcelona earlier this season and while I don't think it will be that easy, I expect him to get through and find a double break in one set to ensure he covers the spread too.


Nicolas Almagro - 6.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Nicolas Almagro is quietly making his way through the draw, although I would be interested to hear what he thinks about being placed on one of the outer courts again.

Almagro is yet to drop a set at the French Open this year after winning the title in Nice without dropping a set so his confidence has to be high, while the match against Leonardo Mayer is much more to his liking than against the dangerous Philip Kohlschreiber who was beaten in the last Round by Mayer.

Mayer is a clay court specialist, but his best results mainly come on the Challenger circuit rather than the main tour. He has failed to make a real impact this season, although he clearly likes something about Roland Garros having reached the Third Round last year as well.

On that occasion he ran into Robin Soderling and had his challenge dismissed in straight sets and I think he will face the same problem against Almagro in this one.

The two players have only met once previously on the main tour, Almagro winning in three sets in Argentina last season. However, Almagro lost a tie-break before losing just 4 more games in that match and I think he is going to be too strong for Mayer here.


Juan Monaco v Milos Raonic: This pick may surprise people- either because I am picking against one of the top youngsters in the game or because Juan Monaco is actually being priced as the underdog in the contest...

Monaco has really found some new belief in his own game after suffering a pretty average 2011 and he is now just 9 wins short of matching his total from last season. He has won tournaments in Vina del Mar and Houston on the clay courts, but his European clay court season was cut short as he was injured in Monte Carlo. However, he has since pushed Novak Djokovic to the distance in Rome to show that he is still in good nick.

Milos Raonic may not be a household name just yet, but the Canadian has made waves all season and he should be breaking into the Top 20 in the Rankings after this tournament is finalised. He has a big serve and powerful groundstrokes, although I am still sure his game will be much more suited to the hard courts in North America and I believe he will be a big danger on the grass.

Raonic has had a productive time on the clay and has proved he is no mug on the surface- he has pushed Roger Federer and David Ferrer in losing efforts and beaten the likes of Andy Murray, David Nalbandian and Nicolas Alamagro on the surface. Other defeats to Albert Montanes and Florian Mayer are a little more baffling.

I just have a feeling that the conditions in Paris are just going to make this slow enough for Monaco to really have an impact in the match and I think his experience will tell. The Argentine is a decent returner and is a decent player off both wings on the ground and I am going to back to him to pull the minor upset in a tight five setter.


MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 6.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Monaco @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)



FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 10-17, - 8.82 Units (50 Units Staked)

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