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Tuesday 26 June 2012

Wimbledon Day 2 Picks (June 26th 2012)

The first day of a Grand Slam usually throws up a couple of surprises and this years Wimbledon proved to be no different as Tomas Berdych, a dark horse that was fancied by a few people to go deep in the tournament (includes me), was beaten in three tie-breakers to exit at the first hurdle.

Ernests Gulbis was brilliant today, but he has shown this level of performance so little in his career and that is the reason he has failed to match the potential he has. I wouldn't be considering this a turning point in his career just yet, and it is going to be interesting to see how he copes against an opponent in the Second Round where he will be expected to win.

That match was the major talking point of the day as Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic comfortably made their way through this first step on the way to a potential Semi Final and I feel the road has already been cleared a little to that eventuality with John Isner another awkward opponent already out of the tournament.


The Women's side of the draw saw the end of Venus Williams and it is going to be interesting to see if the older Williams sister decides to keep going. In the immediate aftermath of her defeat, Venus did say that she was going to be coming back next year, but it is hard to imagine her accepting too many more defeats like today when it is clear that she would have handled her opponent in her prime.

The other main contenders for the title all got through on day one, including Maria Sharapova who is the favourite to win the title. Things are going to be a lot tougher for Sharapova in the next Round as she faces Tsvetana Pironkova, but she did look comfortable in her first match on the surface since winning the French Open.


The picks went 2-1 yesterday, but I was vastly disappointed that Fernando Verdasco could not get the cover despite getting through in straight sets. Verdasco was 5-3, 40-15 in the first set before heading into a tie-break, then he was 5-3 up in the second and was broken serving for the set, while he STILL could have covered if he had completed the win at 5-2, 40-0 in the third set!

Still, it's best not to be greedy and just accept at least it was a winning day and try and kick on from there.


Day 2 Picks:

Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games v Irina Falconi: I am not a big fan of these extremely big handicaps, particularly in a best of three rather than a best of five match, but I do like Victoria Azarenka to make a strong start to this Wimbledon against Irina Falconi.

Azarenka should be able to play with a little bit of freedom now that she is not coming into a tournament with too many expectations and she is not a World Number 1... In a way, Azarenka is coming in under the radar with few tipping her to go on and win this event and that, I believe, will play into her hands.

Irina Falconi won't be an easy test as she has performed well in the warm up events ahead of this tournament, but this is the hardest test she will have faced in that time and she was crushed in the First Round here last season by a player not on the same level as Azarenka.

If the World Number 3 can hold her nerves in playing her first match on the grass this season, I think we could see a 6-3, 6-2 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Kevin Anderson: Before I get on with the pick, I have a confession to make that I backed Kevin Anderson to beat Grigor Dimitrov when the players met at Queens a couple of weeks ago, but I saw enough from that match to think the Bulgarian can frank that form with another win over the big South African.

Dimitrov showed a lot of talent at Queens and is clearly comfortable on the grass- it was an extremely tough day to play tennis when he was beaten in the Semi Final by David Nalbandian- and I don't think he will be too perturbed in playing Anderson again.

The potential star also seemed to get a decent read on Anderson's serve and that could be the key to his success in this First Round match. I don't usually take too much from one match, but Dimitrov seemed to be consistently finding himself in front of Anderson when the big man was serving and that pressure can be tough to take.

Dimitrov also beat Anderson on the grass courts at Eastbourne last season for the loss of just 5 games and that means he has won 4 of the 5 sets these two have competed on grass courts so backing him to come through in 3/4 sets looks the value here.


Tommy Haas to win 3-1 in sets v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Philipp Kohlschreiber suffered an ankle injury last week in Eastbourne so I am not entirely sure how ready he will be for Wimbledon and whether that was just a precautionary retirement to ensure he is OK.

IF Kohlschreiber is at 100%, I think we could see a very good contest between him and his compatriot Tommy Haas who has been showing some really good form in recent weeks. Haas reached the Third Round at the French Open having qualified for the event and he followed that up with a tournament win at Halle where he beat Roger Federer in the Final.

Haas also beat Kohlschreiber there in the Semi Final in two tight sets meaning he has won the last two meetings between the players, both on the grass courts in Halle, although it was Kohlschreiber who won the first meeting which also took place at Halle.

Only five points separated them when they met two weeks ago and while I think Haas is still going to be too strong for Kohlschreiber, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes him four sets to do so.


Andy Roddick - 7.5 games v Jamie Baker: The headlines in Britain will be all about a Scottish player representing the country as he goes up third on one of the main show courts... Jamie Baker will be hoping that he is the one making the headlines on Wednesday morning if he can beat Andy Roddick at the same time Andy Murray is due to start his latest assault on a Grand Slam.

Roddick is not the same player as a couple of years ago, but he should have picked up a lot of confidence after winning the event at Eastbourne last week and he still has the serve that can see him through matches on the grass courts.

The American also showed enough in his return game to suggest he will create chances against Baker and I think he will have enough ability to create a couple of breaks of serve in one set and that should help him along to the cover.

Baker doesn't have the huge weapons that will be able to affect Roddick's game in my opinion and I think he may end up falling to a valiant 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 loss.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: Jurgen Melzer is definitely on the downward curve in his career and I can't help but think he is being a tad over-rated due to his past experiences at Wimbledon.

That, coupled with the struggles Stanislas Wawrinka has faced in the last couple of years, seems to have had the layers making this a closer match than I think it will be.

Wawrinka hasn't made it past the Second Round in his last two appearances at Wimbledon, but it has to be remembered that he has twice got as far as the Fourth Round and also pushed Andy Murray in a five set epic back in 2009. The Swiss Number 2 has also displayed much better form in recent months, especially compared with Melzer.

Melzer cannot have a great deal of confidence having gone just 13-13 in main Tour matches this season, although he does have the tools to be effective on grass. However, a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Tatsuma Ito last week in Holland cannot have helped his mindset.

The Austrian was also beaten 6-4, 6-1, albeit on a clay court, when he faced Wawrinka earlier this season and I just think the latter is going to have enough to win this in 3, possibly 4 sets. As long as Wawrinka doesn't take a heavy loss in the one set he may lose, I expect him to cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Haas to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Stan James (1 Unit)
Andy Roddick - 7.5 games @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)


Wimbledon Update: 2-1, + 2.64 Units (6 Units Staked)

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