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Thursday, 7 June 2012

French Open Day 12 Picks (June 7th)

So we have got down to the Semi Finals at the French Open and I have finally got back into the positive section in what has been a tough two week stretch. However, being in the positive column is far better than being in the negative so hopefully a strong end to the final few days here will lead any followers to a solid performance from the last two weeks.

Andy Murray's tournament ended yesterday and I think he summed up his performance in the match, and the tournament in general, perfectly. He was right in saying he had a lot of chances and that he couldn't put away his own service games with enough ease to turn the pressure onto David Ferrer. The Spaniard was very solid and consistent and I agree with Murray that the top four clay court players are going to contest the Semi Finals this year.

The overall tournament was decent for Andy Murray and I think he got about as far as I expected. This should give him a bit of confidence going into the grass court season when Murray is in the top 4-5 players on the surface and he could have a real impact with the right draw and as long as he holds up physically. I expect Murray to play at Queens and I expect him to most likely retain that trophy before he gets ready to move to Wimbledon which will begin at the end of the month.

Day 12 Picks:

Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Sara Errani: I have been very impressed with the way Sara Errani has handled her nerves and produced some top quality tennis to reach the Semi Final here, but I think her run will be coming to an end against a confident Sam Stosur that has reached the Final here before and will also have handled this pressure when winning the US Open last year.

Stosur's kick serve is going to cause a lot of problems for the Italian and Errani has also had her serve broken a fair few times in the last couple of wins and that is going to be the difference between them here in my opinion.

The Australian also holds a 5-0 head to head record against Errani and she has lost just one set in those meetings, while she beat her 6-3. 7-5 in Rome last month. Errani did break serve 3 times in that match, but she was struggling behind her own serve and I think this may just be the case again tomorrow.

I think Stosur will win in straight sets and will be expecting a 6-4, 6-3 win after a few breaks of serve each.

Petra Kvitova + 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: Anyone who followed the outright picks will know that I have Maria Sharapova at 5.00 just to reach the Final, so those followers may decide they want to put a little on Petra Kvitova to win this match to cover their outright pick on Sharapova.

However, I am picking this not because I think Sharapova will lose, but because I think Petra Kvitova will be able to keep this close at the least. She pushed the Russian to three sets in their Australian Open Semi Final while their most recent meeting in Stuttgart on the clay saw Sharapova win a close match 6-4, 7-6.

The Wimbledon Champion did not look great in her Quarter Final win, but she has the ability to take the racquet out of her opponents hands and I can see her having some success against the Sharapova second serve if Kvitova is on her game.

It would not surprise me at all if Sharapova comes through, but after an almighty scare in a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova + 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 20-21, + 3.46 Units (67 Units Staked)

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