Tennis Picks March 3rd

It looked like I was going to suffer a devastating day yesterday as the first three picks I made all lost, some unfortunately, others heavily.

Fortunately, Fernando Verdasco continued his hot week and brought in some profits for the third day in a row, and then Kevin Anderson fought back from a set down to take out Andy Roddick. Those two wins means it was only a slight loss on the day and maintaining profit for the week.

We will have a slight break after today as Indian Wells gets up and running with qualifiers during the week- I won't make picks at that stage, but the actual tournament begins next Saturday so I should have an outright preview of both Men's and Women's events before then and once the draw is out.

Roger Federer v Andy Murray: The Dubai Final takes place today and I am going to back the former World Number 1 to get the better of Britain's Andy Murray.

Murray actually has a winning record over Federer, leading the head to head 9-6, which includes a 6-3 lead on outdoor hard courts.

However, they have not played much recently, with only one meeting all of last season on the indoor courts at the ATP World Championships in London (Federer won 6-4, 6-2).

I like Federer today as he has definite course and distance form being a four time winner in Dubai, and I think he has been serving very well all week. That may just give him the edge in this contest although Murray is an effective returner of serve.

Murray was very efficient yesterday against Djokovic and will need to serve as well as that if he is to win this game. However, he can be a bit up and down as we have seen all week and a serving display similar to the ones against Michael Berrer and Tomas Berdych may give Federer too many chances and allow him to pick up his 5th Dubai title and close the gap to Nadal and Djokovic at the top of the Men's Rankings.

David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: As well as Fernando Verdasco has done this week, I think it will come to an end without a title as he faces the dogged David Ferrer in what is likely to be a mental and physical battle for Verdasco.

I remember a few years ago, Verdasco really had the Indian sign over Ferrer despite being much lower in the Rankings for much of that time. Verdasco won 6 of the first 9 meetings between the compatriots and regularly upset the odds in doing so, winning 3 of those matches as a big underdog.

However, things have begun to change now and Ferrer is the winner of 3 of their last 4 matches- I think Ferrer has a lot more belief in his game against his fellow Spaniards in the last few seasons than he did earlier in his career when he would regularly state how his fellow players were much more talented than he was.

Ferrer has quietly gone about his business this week as he looks to secure back to back titles on the clay courts of South America and I think he will force Verdasco to play one too many shots to win points, something I think the latter will struggle to do with consistency.

It might be a close set to start, but I think Ferrer will mentally break down Verdasco by pressuring him to get closer and closer to the lines and that should allow him to win through while covering the spread.

Dudi Sela-Marinko Matosevic Over 22.5 Games: Both players surprised me by winning their Quarter Finals matches yesterday and I think we are going to get a tight game between them tonight, especially judging from their previous meetings.

Dudi Sela holds the 3-0 head to head lead, but all three matches have had to go the distance, while we have seen tie-breaks having to settle a couple of the sets they have competed in.

They also met here last season with Sela coming back from a set deficit to win that match, although all the sets were fairly comprehensive.

It is a slight risk as I am likely going to need this going the distance again to get the cover, but they have shown that they are both capable of winning sets against one another and so the Over looks a decent shout.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 188Bet (2 Units)
Dudi Sela-Marinko Matosevic Over 22.5 games @ 1.92 188Bet (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 8-6, + 4.36 Units (28 Units Staked)