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Thursday, 1 March 2012

NBA March Picks

Well I ended February with a run of 4 winners to finish the month with a slight profit, although I am hoping to improve my hit rate to above 63% in March.

Still, I guess a slight profit is better than a big loss, so those 4 winners came very handy as the month drew to a close.

As always, I will post my plays on this same thread throughout the month while updating the win-loss column before I make new plays. As I say, I am aiming to improve to above 63% although I don't make plays every day, especially if I feel a little out of form.

March 1st
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13317-Miami-Heat-at-Portland-T-Blazers.htm)

March 3rd
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13344-Utah-Jazz-at-Dallas-Mavericks.htm)

March 5th
It took me a day to recover from the Dallas Mavericks failure to cover the spread against the Utah Jazz as they allowed 41 points in the final quarter as well as being outscored by 13 points to win by 6 and just fail to get over the line. The backdoor cover always seems to hurt that much more than when the game is close throughout and I decided to leave Sunday's games alone.

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I have decided to play the Over total points in this one for the following reasons:

First, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the teams in the series would have gone over the total set in this game. I think it has been set a little low as Toronto played last night and they are perhaps taking tiredness as a key factor for the home team.



Second, the Raptors have actually gone over 3-1-1 in their last 5 games playing the second of back to back nights play.


Third, the Magic have reached a 100 point total in 4 of their last 5 matches and could really set the scene for the cover if they can go at a reasonable rate from the three point arc.


March 7th
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13379-Portland-T-Blazers-at-Minnesota-T-Wolves.htm)

Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13380-Phoenix-Suns-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)

March 8th
I am not going to lie- I really felt last night I got the luck that deserted me in the Dallas-Utah game on Saturday as Oklahoma City went into overdrive to cover the spread by 1.5 points with a fourth quarter blowout of the Phoenix Suns.

The Thunder had really struggled for the first three quarters to get things going consistently and I figured they were unlikely to cover, but a big fourth quarter meant the picks both won thankfully.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Pick: I am going to back the road team to win and cover for the following reasons:

First, Phoenix played in an emotional loss last night as they blew a decent lead to lose at the Oklahoma City Thunder and they could suffer a letdown tonight.



Second, Dallas have gone 8-0 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series between the teams, including winning all 3 games this season as well as the last 3 in Phoenix.


Third, Phoenix are 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 home games when playing on consecutive nights.


March 9th
So the Dallas Mavericks can say they are almost single-handedly responsible for my 50% strike rate so far this month as they screwed my pick for the second time in the last few days.

First they blew that game with Utah Jazz by failing to cover when leading by 19 going into the final quarter and winning by just 6 when I had them - 7.5 points.

Yesterday, they were leading by 10 with 15 minutes left to play, but proceeded to go on a 6-27 run and then missed two shots to take the game into overtime and keep the chances of the cover alive. I am done with the Mavs until they find some consistency.

New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick: I am picking the road team to cover for the following reasons:


First, they have beaten the Bobcats twice already this season, including here last week behind Deron Williams' 57 points effort.


Second, I don't think Charlotte deserve to be a close underdog against anyone this season.


Third, New Jersey have been in decent, if not spectacular, form of late and I think they are the better team and this spread should be as high as the 4.5 points it was when they met a few days ago.


LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: I am going to continue riding the Overs in the Minnesota games here for the following reasons:


First, the last 3 meetings between the teams have gone 'Overs' including both played this season.


Second, Minnesota continue getting involved in high scoring games as their defence is not great but they have some fine three point shooters.


Third, the Overs has been popular in Lakers matches recently, going 7-3 in their last 10 games.


New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I am going to back the Milwaukee Bucks to win this game outright for the following reasons:


First, Milwaukee have been playing some really good basketball recently and have been a little unfortunate not to get the results their play has deserved. However, they continue fighting hard which shows a team that is not getting down on themselves.


Second, the Bucks are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games against New York including a win at the Garden earlier this season.


Third, this game potentially means more to Milwaukee than it does for New York. The Bucks need to get back into the Play Off picture and face one of their potential rivals on that front, while the Knicks are facing the Philadelphia 76ers next as they look to close on the Atlantic Division leaders.


March 10th
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13412-Indiana-Pacers-at-Miami-Heat.htm)

March 12th
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13425-New-York-Knicks-at-Chicago-Bulls.htm)

March 13th
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13434-Houston-Rockets-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)

March 21st
I took a few days off after going 1-2 with my last 3 picks and decided to take a breath and figure out what I was doing right/wrong. Hopefully I can end the month on form and build a healthy profit as the regular season draws to a close.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13503-New-York-Knicks-at-Philadelphia-76ers.htm)

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: I am going to back another underdog in the form of the LA Lakers for the following reasons:

First, Dallas have struggled under expectations all season and are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite. They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 as the home favourite.



Second, the Lakers have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.


Third, the Lakers are 4-3 against the spread when being beaten as the favourite in their previous game and I think they may already have been focused on this game when they blew their game at Houston last night.


March 22nd
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13513-Boston-Celtics-at-Milwaukee-Bucks.htm)

LA Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13514-LA-Clippers-at-New-Orleans-Hornets.htm)

March 23rd
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13524-New-York-Knicks-at-Toronto-Raptors.htm)

New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13525-New-Jersey-Nets-at-Atlanta-Hawks.htm)

Portland Trail Blazers @ LA Lakers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13526-Portland-T-Blazers-at-LA-Lakers.htm)

March 24th
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13536-Atlanta-Hawks-at-Washington-Wizards.htm)

March 25th
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13547-Miami-Heat-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)

Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13545-Memphis-Grizzlies-at-LA-Lakers.htm)

March 27th
Talk about a bad run of form... I have been really struggling over the last week and that has seen the profits fall through the floor for this month. I decided to take yesterday off from the games and, you guessed it, had 3 winners from my 4 team shortlist. Hopefully that proves to be a turning point to end the month.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13569-Cleveland-Cavaliers-at-Philadelphia-76ers.htm)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13568-Minnesota-T-Wolves-at-Memphis-Grizzlies.htm)

March 28th
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13577-Orlando-Magic-at-New-York-Knicks.htm)

Indiana Pacers @ New Jersey Nets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13574-Indiana-Pacers-at-New-Jersey-Nets.htm)

Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13575-Utah-Jazz-at-Boston-Celtics.htm)


MY PICKS: 01/03 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
03/03 Dallas Mavericks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
05/03 Toronto Raptors-Orlando Magic Over 186 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
07/03 Minnesota Timberwolves-Portland Trail Blazers Over 195.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
07/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
08/03 Dallas Mavericks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/03 New Jersey Nets - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/03 Minnesota Timberwolves-LA Lakers Over 192.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
09/03 Milwaukee Bucks @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)
10/03 Miami Heat - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/03 New York Knicks + 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 11 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/03 New York Knicks + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/03 LA Lakers + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
22/03 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
22/03 LA Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/03 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 188Bet (2 Units)
23/03 Atlanta Hawks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/03 LA Lakers - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
24/03 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
25/03 Miami Heat + 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
25/03 LA Lakers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
27/03 Philadelphia 76ers - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
27/03 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.92 (2 Units)
28/03 Orlando Magic - 2 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
28/03 Indiana Pacers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
28/03 Boston Celtics-Utah Jazz Over 189.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


March Update: 11-12-1, - 2.98 Units

February Final: 8-7, + 1.02 Units

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