Indian Wells Tennis Outright Picks

I am going to preview both Men's and Women's events in this thread and I will put down any outright picks I am making for the first big tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.

Men's Tournament
The Masters Events have been dominated by the big four players in the Rankings and I would be surprised if we were to get a winner outside of one of them as they all have one quarter to themselves in what looks like a good chance for all four to get to the Semi Finals.

Novak Djokovic has already lost his first match in 2012 after going five months without one last season, but I think I want to oppose him at the short odds considering he has looked a little jaded and perhaps struggling to cope with the expectations of a World Number 1, and not just on the court but off it too with media commitments.

Djokovic has more than a couple of lively challengers in his section of the draw, with early potential meetings against Kevin Anderson, a winner at Delray Beach recently, and Richard Gasquet. This is all before a likely meeting with one of the early form players in the form of Tomas Berdych.

All in all, I think the 2.75 on Djokovic winning the tournament is a touch short for me.

An even bigger problem for the Serb could be lying in wait in the Semi Final where I think Andy Murray will be waiting for him. Murray has been given an extremely kind draw through to the Quarter Finals, but that is when he could face one of his bigger challengers in the form of Mardy Fish.

I think Fish is going to have an upturn in fortunes after helping the United States win a Davis Cup tie in Switzerland and I think he has been given a decent draw, although a tough potential battle with John Isner is in prospect in the Fourth Round.

Fish has a decent record against Murray and would fancy his chances, but I think the British Number 1 has been in fine form to open this season and is definitely worth chancing at 6.50 as an each-way pick to at least get to the Final.

Murray has had some success here in the past, reaching a Final, a Semi Final and a Quarter Final, and he could really close the gap on Roger Federer in 3rd place in the Men's Rankings with a big couple of weeks here and next up in Miami.

The bottom half of the draw will see the return of Rafael Nadal to competitive tennis after he had decided to take February off following the Australian Open. It is going to be interesting to see how he has recovered mentally from losing yet another big Final to Novak Djokovic, although he can have no complaints with the way the draw has panned out for him.

I can't see the Spaniard having any problems before the Quarter Finals as there are too many inconsistent players, or ones that have taken too many losses to him in the past, to really knock Nadal off course.

A potential threat at that stage is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but I think it is tough to back the Frenchman to cause a surprise as he has had a poor record at this event where the courts play slower and the windy conditions can sometimes make it very tough. However, Tsonga did push Nadal to three close sets in his first appearance at Indian Wells and could be a big challenge if he can negotiate the first few Rounds.

Tsonga also has a couple of real early tests, meeting the winner of Michael Llodra and Ernests Gulbis in his first match at the event, while further challengers from the likes of Xavier Malisse, Radek Stepanek and Janko Tipsarevic could cause problems.

With that in mind, I think I am avoiding backing a player in this section with the amount of question marks surrounding the key players. Rafael Nadal looks a touch short considering he hasn't played since the end of January and I will just take a keen interest to see how he does ahead of the event in Miami.

One player who is definitely in form in the bottom half of the draw is Roger Federer who has won back to back events at Rotterdam and Dubai to increase his good run of form since the US Open last September.

Federer hasn't won this event since 2006, but has reached three Semi Finals since then and he has been given a draw I think he can take advantage of. Milos Raonic is a potential hazard in the Third Round, but I think the slower courts will negate his game somewhat against someone like the former World Number 1, while players like Jurgen Melzer and Gael Monfils have their own issues to contend with.

Some will point to David Ferrer or Juan Martin Del Potro as players that can perhaps derail the Fed Express if they meet him in the Quarter Finals but I would have reservations about both- Ferrer played brilliantly to win back to back events on the clay courts of South America coming into this one, but he has to contend with a change of surface and has been beaten in his first match at this event in the last two seasons. To further trouble me, Ferrer has never moved beyond the Quarter Final at Indian Wells and has lost all 12 meetings with Federer.

Juan Martin Del Potro has shown he is getting better and better in each passing week, but it has been Roger Federer that has stopped him in tournaments for the most part and that is a mental hurdle to overcome for the big hitting Argentine. However, he does have some history here by beating Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Finals of 2009 before losing in the Semi Final to Andy Murray.

I just think he is not quite up to that level just yet in his play and I think it will be tough for him to beat potentially David Ferrer and Roger Federer in back to back matches, while I still think Federer has his number from recent meetings between the two players.

The trouble for me is I don't really want to pick Federer at the same price as Nadal as that potential Semi Final is going to be a huge mental challenge for the Swiss man. The bottom line is Federer has lost the last 7 matches on an outdoor court against Nadal and I think the price is a little too short with some of the tests lying ahead.

It's a little boring, but I am keeping just Andy Murray in my staking plan as an each-way pick for the week.

Women's Tournament
I am sure I am not the only person to be asked on more than one occasion whether I believe Victoria Azarenka is going to 'do a Novak Djokovic' and dominate the Women's Tour much as the Serb dominated the Men's last season.

Azarenka is unbeaten this season, winning all 3 tournaments she has contested including her first Grand Slam title from the Australian Open. She has also moved to World Number 1 and only lost 4 sets from her 17 matches so far in 2012.

It is, therefore, no surprise to see her as the short priced favourite to win this event, but I am going to avoid picking her as she is coming back from a left ankle issue, as well as facing a couple of potentially tough matches in the early Rounds, particularly the Third Round meeting with Svetlana Kuznetsova who has won 4 of their 5 meetings.

Another danger could be Agnieska Radwanska in the Quarter Finals- the Polish player has won the tournament in Dubai in the absence of Azarenka and she is also the player that has forced the World Number 1 to three sets in 2 of their 3 meetings this season.

Both Kuznetsova and Radwanska are definitely live contenders to beat Azarenka before the Final so I think I will avoid the World Number 1 in this tournament.

I am also going to avoid Petra Kvitova who looks remarkably short in the outright markets considering she has played just two matches since the Australian Open and I am not so sure how well she has recovered from the illness that kept her out of the last two events in Dubai and Doha.

On her usual form, Kvitova would look a really good choice to go deep in this tournament as she has been given more than just a kind draw. There are plenty of questions surrounding many of the players in her section of the draw, although her biggest challenge could come early in the form of Angelique Kerber- the German player won a recent tournament in Paris and could cause one or two problems if Kvitova is not on form, but I am going to look at another section of the draw to see if I can grab an outright winner.

And in doing so, I feel Maria Sharapova is definitely worth chancing to go deep this year- Sharapova has won this tournament once before in 2006 and she has also reached the Semi Final on three other occasions so she has course and distance in her favour.

The Russian has not played a lot of tennis since the Australian Open and did suffer a surprise early exit at the indoor tournament in Paris, but she could not have hand picked a better path through the draw. I see almost no issues for Sharapova getting through to the Quarter Final where she is scheduled to meet Sam Stosur, a player she has beaten 9 times in a row before losing the last time they met.

My biggest concern is the windy conditions here considering Sharapova's serve can sometimes go AWOL, but if she can keep control of that, I think she has a great chance of going all the way.

A potential Semi Final against either Marion Bartoli or Caroline Wozniacki will not really hold any fears for Sharapova if she has progressed this far into the tournament, and at 6.50 she has to be worth taking a chance on in the each-way stakes market.



MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Andy Murray @ 6.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
Maria Sharapova @ 6.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)