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Wednesday, 28 March 2012

Tennis Picks March 28th (Miami)

While I have struggled to find markets for the daily picks with the layers taking almost no chances with what they are offering, I am glad to say that my three outright picks for the tournament have all reached the Quarter Finals or better so far.

Novak Djokovic will be pleased to have seen both Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer exit the tournament and open up his half of the draw. I think David Ferrer is the biggest challenge left for him to face before the Final so I am hopeful he will get to that stage.

It isn't as straight-forward for Andy Murray as he faces at least a couple of tough matches if he is to reach the Final. The first is today against Janko Tipsarevic and then the potential Semi Final with either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Rafael Nadal will be a tough prospect to say the least.

In the Woman's draw, Victoria Azarenka has been fortunate to escape and still take part in this tournament, but I am happy enough with how my pick, Maria Sharapova, has done in the tournament. She has reached the Semi Final and now faces Caroline Wozniacki, a player she has beaten in 5 of their 7 previous meetings.

It won't be easy for Sharapova, but I do think she will be too strong and could provide a big pay out for the week.

Venus Williams v Agnieska Radwanska: I am only playing this match for one unit, but I think Venus has been playing so well this week and shown some real heart that I don't think she should be set as a fairly big underdog against a player she has beaten 5 times in a row.

Granted the last time they met was a couple of seasons ago and Radwanska is a vastly improved player since then, but Williams recorded an impressive win over Ana Ivanovic in the last Round who has been playing very well.

Don't be surprised if Radwanska does get through, I just don't think she is as short a favourite as some think in this one.

Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I know Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will have his supporters considering he has beating Rafael Nadal in 2 of their last 3 meetings, but I just feel the conditions will be against him here, particularly in the cooler night session.

The courts play slow in Miami and that should allow Nadal to get involved and use his superior speed and retrieving skills to force Tsonga into mistakes, very similar to how he would likely beat the Frenchman on a clay court.

My biggest concern is that Nadal has not really been playing that well after taking February off from the Tour and Tsonga is capable of giving him plenty of problems.

However, Nadal beat Tsonga at this stage here a couple of seasons ago and I am going for him to do so again, although it will be tighter than the 6-3, 6-2 win he recorded then I am sure.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams @ 2.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 1.19 Units (23 Units Staked)

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