Tennis Picks February 24th

It was not a good day yesterday as the picks went 1-2, while Davydenko retired from his match with Del Potro to void that pick.

There are a few players on my 'blacklist' that I refuse to back or go against as they always seem to do exactly the opposite of what I think they will... The latest to join the list is Daniela Hantuchova, a player that plays well when she wants but one that I cannot seem to read anymore.

I ignored her match with Peng earlier in the tournament after seeing her struggles against Hercog, yet Hantuchova is barely threatened on serve and looks very good, all this after winning a tournament a couple of weeks ago so confidence is clearly high.

However, I was very disappointed with her performance against Julia Goerges today, a match she seemed to have in control before falling apart, and so I will keep a mental tab on her matches but I will not be playing them anytime soon.

Just out of interest, the other players on that list at the moment are Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ana Ivanovic, and now Daniela Hantuchova (these are the more 'famous' names, but there are a few others).


The tournament in Dubai has already reached the Semi Finals stage as they want to keep Sunday as a day of rest so will finish earlier than the other tournaments taking place this week, all of which will have reached the Quarter Final stage tomorrow.

I will update a link to this thread on Twitter once my picks have been made- these should be up in the morning, at least a couple of hours before the first matches are scheduled.

Agnieska Radwanska - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: A slightly risky pick considering the form of the latter so far this week, but I think Radwanska has shown herself more than capable of beating most players on the Tour over the last few months... Well most players not called Victoria Azarenka.

Radwanska has lost just 6 matches since the US Open, 3 of those to Azarenka, while other defeats to Caroline Wozniacki and Petra Kvitova were expected.

However, I think she has full belief in her ability to knock off any other opponent and that has shown this season so far where only Azarenka has managed to get the better of the Polish Number 1.

Jankovic has been playing very well, but she still shows signs of frustration at times, and I think Radwanska's ability to make her play one more ball will be the telling factor.

Radwanska won their most recent meeting on the hard courts of Tokyo in a 3 set match... I don't think it will go that far today and I am looking at her winning in straight sets with a break of serve more than Jankovic can manage (I know that's how tennis works to win sets, I mean in the sense that I expect a number of breaks of serves with Radwanska coming out on top in each set).

Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: This is a pick that could die a very early death if Goerges is in her 'make 3 unforced errors a game' mode, but I am backing the German to at least keep it close against an opponent she has beaten twice in a row, both wins coming last season.

Goerges is really a hit or miss character, going from the unplayable to the inability to hit the ball over the net, but the match up does work for her as Wozniacki is unlikely to power her way past her.

I have noticed that Wozniacki is being a little more attacking at the moment in her game, with an obvious need to improve that aspect if she wants to win Grand Slams, but that also leads to more errors and mistakes than she is used to making.

Goerges has clearly been comfortable on the courts here and she will have her opportunities to perhaps even win the match outright... However, I like having the games on my side in this one.

Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: A quick look at the results and you could be forgiven for thinking Richard Gasquet has cruised through to this stage of the tournament in Marseille, but that has really not been the case at all.

Gasquet was a little fortunate to beat Igor Kunitsyn as simply as he did in the last Round, offering up far too many opportunities and this is something that can come back to bite him against Del Potro.

I also feel there is still a mental block for the Frenchman when he comes up against the best players on the Tour and Del Potro certainly fits into that department. The Argentine has looked like gettting closer and closer to the form that took him to the French Open Semi Final and winning the US Open in 2009 as he continues to find confidence in his own game.

His big hitting style is certainly going to pose Gasquet problems and I think he should be able to take advantage of the opportunities Gasquet is allowing on his own serve- that should hopefully lead to a straight sets win with a break in each set.

Ivan Ljubicic + 3.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: Anyone who has followed my picks since last season will know how much I like Janko Tipsarevic, but this could be a tough evening for him in prospect.

Ivan Ljubicic is clearly not the same force of old, but he still can cause problems if his serve is 'on' and he should have some confidence having already won a couple of matches here. Ljubicic hasn't got the same consistency in rallies, but can pressure opponents if he is getting through his own service games and he will look to do that tonight.

Tipsarevic has looked comfortable as a Top 10 player and he seems happy with the way things have been happening for him. He has reached the Final in Chennai this season, although a Third Round loss at the Australian Open was a disappointment.

The courts should aid Tipsarevic with his own serve, which is very much under-rated as far as I am concerned, but this match easily has the potential to reach a couple of tie-breaks and I am hoping that will be enough to ensure Ljubicic can cover the spread.

Igor Andreev + 3.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: I said earlier this week when backing Andreev to beat Kavcic that I believe the Russian is playing as well as he has for at least a couple of seasons, and he has backed up those comments by reaching a Quarter Final here in Argentina.

He won as the underdog yesterday against Fernando Verdasco and his serve has been working very very well in the last couple of tournaments. He also showed tremendous guts last week against Albert Ramos to stay in the match, although ultimately losing in two tie-breakers, but I was impressed as his determination has not been so great the last couple of seasons.

Nicolas Almagro is a very tough clay court competitor, but he has played a lot of tennis of late and has begun to make life a little tougher for himself in matches than it needs to be. While he did win impressively yesterday, he struggled against Filipo Volandri and Potito Starace recently and I can easily see this going the distance.

In that case, the extra 3.5 games on Andreev looks a touch high in what I foresee being a closely contested match.

They have met 7 times in the past (Andreev leads 4-3), but the majority of those matches have been closely contested. The way Andreev is playing at the moment, this could be another one to add to that list.

Milos Raonic - 4.5 games v Olivier Rochus: This looks like a fairly large spread that could all be decided on whether Milos Raonic decides to start serving first or whether Rochus is given that opportunity.

However, at odds against, this is definitely worth chancing that the Canadian continues his form of the last two weeks when he has been serving like a machine and not allowing his opponents too many chances of winning points, let alone breaking serve.

The courts here in Memphis will aid Raonic all the more and will heap the pressure on the diminutive Belgian to try and keep up, something we have seen scupper a couple of opponents in recent matches.

The big serving Canadian can break the spirits of his opponents when he is serving as well as he is, and they can fall apart if Raonic does move ahead in the set as they begin to feel there is no chance of them recovering.

Rochus also has to earn every point he is going to win in this match and that should present Raonic with the opportunity to break serve- yesterday, Ryan Harrison earned 6 break point chances while Alex Bogomolov earned 9 in their matches with Rochus.

I can just see Raonic breaking serve in the first two sets and serving out the match... If he serves first, I think this will be an easier cover than if he is forced to break twice in a set, although that is entirely possible too if the pressure of saving serve gets a little too much for Rochus.


MY PICKS: Agnieska Radwanska - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic + 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Igor Andreev + 3.5 games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 3.04 Units (26 Units Staked)