Tennis Picks February 17th

With the tournaments in Rotterdam, Doha, Sao Paulo, Bogota and San Jose all reaching the Quarter Final stages this evening, it does mean that we have to wait for the layers to get their markets ready overnight.

That means that all the picks for this day will begin to be made in the morning, but the earliest tennis match scheduled is at 11:30am so that should provide ample time for the picks to go up and give you time to follow them if you like.

You can keep an eye on my Twitter page which will provide a link to this thread as the picks are updated throughout the day.

Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The spread is a touch big here as it does need Berdych to win both sets, one of those with a double break at least, but I think he will be capable of doing so with the slow conditions at Rotterdam.

The Czech player was the beneficiary of a Marcos Baghdatis retirement yesterday so should be fairly fresh despite playing a lot of tennis over the last month, and I think he will hold a clear advantage in the serving department that could lead to the cover.

Andreas Seppi is not an easy out for any player, but he has a weakness in the second serve department which is not good enough at the top level. The slower courts will also not help him when it comes to penetrating the Berdych defences in the match and I just have the feeling he will be forced to work too hard to win points and that could lead to a lot of pressure on his shoulders.

The players have not met since 2008 and have split their four matches 2-2, but Berdych is a much improved player now.

It is odds against that the Czech player covers and it will be close, likely being a game either way to decide this... I just have a gut feeling we will be looking at a 6-4, 6-2 win for the World Number 7.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: This should be a tough match for Juan Martin Del Potro as he looks to return to his 2009 form that brought him his first Grand Slam at the US Open, but it is also considered a very winnable match.

Del Potro has had a couple of tough matches here in Rotterdam already, but that should have sharpened him up for the conditions we are seeing on the court, one which is playing unusually slow for an indoor hard court.

That won't bother Del Potro too much as he has more than the ability to hit through any court and any surface so I do believe he will be able to hurt Victor Troicki off the ground.

Troicki has had a slow start to 2012 and I think he has probably reached about high as he will when it comes to the Rankings being a former World Number 12. He has a decent serve, but it is one that can break down, and I think his inconsistencies off the ground can be exposed by the better players.

It is no surprise that Del Potro has won all 4 meetings with Troicki, and he leads 9-1 in sets in those matches. The Argentine should be able to exert enough pressure to cover the spread as he has won the first set 6-3 on every occasion they have met and has covered this number in 3 of their 4 meetings.

I hope Del Potro wins the toss and gets to serve first, as that would make the cover that much easier, and I will back him to come through 6-3, 6-4.


Lucie Safarova + 3.5 games v Marion Bartoli: This should be an interesting match to watch this afternoon as the in-from Lucie Safarova looks to secure her third big scalp in a row.

Safarova has beaten Caroline Wozniacki and Svetlana Kuznetsova in consecutive Rounds to reach this Quarter Final, with the win over the former coming under intense pressure which she handled very well.

The Czech player has a very effective lefty serve and can be a very hard player to stop when she gets ahead of steam as she has in this tournament and I think she has the capabilities of pushing Marion Bartoli close at the very least.

Bartoli is a tough player and has shown that she is in good nick by reaching the Final in Paris last week and coming through a couple of Rounds here with ease. However, Safarova does present a big rise in the level of competition she has faced in Doha.

These two players met twice last season, with Safarova winning easily in Kuala Lumpur and Bartoli winning a tight match in Eastbourne. With the confidence that Safarova has surely built up this week, the spread is just high enough for me to back her to do enough to keep this close again, perhaps even winning the match.


Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I was a little surprised with the spread being this low in favour of Almagro as I think he is the superior player on the clay courts and has started 2012 in impressive fashion while not playing too much on his favoured surface.

There is no doubt that Carlos Berlocq is in very good form himself having reached the Final in Chile a couple of weeks ago, but a quick look at the players he has faced shows that Almagro is going to be a huge step up in class, while the Argentine's one defeat in that time came to Juan Monaco in relative comfort.

Berlocq did push Almagro to three sets in their one meeting in 2011 on the clay courts in Nice, France, but he failed to cover the spread on offer today in that match and I just think the Spaniard is going to be too strong here, likely winning 6-3, 6-4.


MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova + 3.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-8, - 0.36 Units (32 Units Staked)