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Tuesday 14 February 2012

Tennis Picks February 14th

It was not a good opening day of the tournaments for my picks as I went a disappointing 1-3, although it could very easily have gone 3-1 with a little more luck.

Still, it is actually only my second losing day all season in the tennis so I can't really complain, but I am hoping this day brings a little more success.

The way the tournaments are spaced out means the layers do not offer their markets for the tournaments in Bogota, Sao Paulo and San Jose until the morning here in Britain, although they have got their act together with those at Rotterdam and Doha.

That means I will likely add a couple of picks in the morning before lunch time, hopefully before any of these picks start their matches (I don't chase, so I won't put up picks just because some earlier may not have been successful... To make sure I am not doing anything stupid sub-consciously, I like having all my picks ready before any of the earlier matches I pick have started).

I will update Twitter with a link to this thread in the morning with the other picks are ready to go.

Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games vs Marcel Granollers: I like Philipp Kohlschreiber's chances in this match as he was showing some decent form at the tournament in Montpellier recently on an indoor hard court, only losing in a close match to Tomas Berdych who went on to win the tournament.

Kohlschreiber missed the Davis Cup match with Argentina last week with a stomach bug, but he has had enough days to get over that and also did not need to change surface from the indoor hard court to the clay that Germany had picked in that tie.

The German is back in the top 32, but he could find himself moving up the rankings if he can maintain the consistency that has seen him start 2012 in decent nick.

Marcel Granollers is known for his clay court play, but did win a tournament at Valencia towards the back end of last season on an indoor hard court, although he had lost all 4 other matches he played on this surface outside of that one in Valencia.

The Spaniard played the fifth rubber in their Davis Cup win over Kazakhstan on Sunday, so he has not had much of a chance to get used to the change in surface and I think that will be the telling difference. I am surprised he didn't decide to play the South American clay court swing to be honest, and I think Kohlschreiber is going to be too strong for him.

I expect the German will come through in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3.


Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Igor Kunitsyn: I was extremely surprised that Russia decided to use Igor Kunitsyn instead of Mikhail Youzhny in their Davis Cup singles matches against Austria over the weekend and I think Youzhny will demonstrate why it was a mistake.

It left me scratching my head a little more when considering Youzhny is ranked over 30 places higher in the Rankings and had won the tournament in Zagreb on an indoor hard court just the week prior to the Davis Cup tie.

Kunitsyn has now lost 8 matches in a row stretching back to last season and I think his serve is one that Youzhny can take advantage of. As I said, Youzhny recently won a tournament on an indoor hard court and he obviously enjoys himself in Rotterdam having been a previous winner of the event here.

Add to that the fact he has reached the Quarter Final twice in the last 3 seasons and also reached a Final here in that time and you have to feel a little confident that he can beat his compatriot in straight sets and cover the spread on offer.

Youzhny was beating Kunitsyn 6-3, 6-1, 3-0 at Wimbledon in 2006 when the latter had to retire in their last match... I think it will be tighter than that, but I am looking for Youzhny to win 7-5, 6-4.


Daniela Hantuchova - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: Daniela Hantuchova is really enjoying an 'Indian Summer' in her career over the last 12 months, with some impressive performances. She comes into this event having won in Thailand last week and I think that is the reason we are seeing this small (famous last words?) spread on this game.

Hantuchova left Thailand on Sunday evening to come to Doha and could be suffering a little bit of jetlag having won that tournament. However, she faces Simona Halep, a player that has a decent game but one that has not pulled up any trees over the last 12 months on a hard court.

Halep has been beaten players that are not as good as Hantuchova, and the Slovakian is in good enough form for me to think she wins this in straight sets and covers the spread in a 6-3, 6-3 win.


Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo v Rui Machado: A slightly risky pick here, but I am going to back the veteran Spaniard to earn a win in the 1st Round here at the Brazil Open as I think he is in better form than Rui Machado.

Ramirez-Hidalgo is probably most famous for being the player who was in control of providing a shock win over Roger Federer at Monte Carlo, but then tried to pass the great man with a hotdog shot when it was easier to hit a normal shot... That woke Federer up who upped his game and managed to get through on a tie break in the final set.

He has qualified for this tournament, after doing the same in Chile last week, and has to be favoured here now he is more familiar with the court conditions.

Machado has done his best work on clay courts, but he has lost all 3 matches he has played in 2012 and this will be his first match on the red dirt. With Ramirez-Hidalgo having already won a couple of matches here to get to this phase, I think he will confirm the form between the two having won their only previous meeting on a clay court last season.

It might go the distance, but I do like the Spanish veteran to move forward.


Robby Ginepri v Xavier Malisse: These two are a couple of vets winding down their careers, but I think Ginepri is a little bit more match hardened in recent weeks, while Xavier Malisse has not played since retiring in the 1st Round at the Australian Open.

Ginepri can at least point to reaching a Final on the indoor hard courts in Hawaii in that time, although it was at the lower Challenger level, and he does spend almost all of his time in United States tournaments these days.

Malisse has lost all 3 matches he has played in 2012 and I don't know how much desire he has left, especially if he is taken into a battle.

The players haven't met since 2008, a match Ginepri won in 3 sets on the hard courts of Las Vegas, but I just think he may be worth chancing as the underdog considering the lack of tennis Malisse has played in recent weeks. That run to the Final in Honolulu a couple of weeks ago could stand Ginepri in good stead here.


MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Robby Ginepri @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)



Week Update: 1-3, - 4.4 Units (8 Units staked)

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