There is still one more match that I have picked which is yet to play from yesterday, but it was an interesting day already and one that could have been much better when it was all said and done.
Philipp Kohlschreiber and Daniela Hantuchova both won their first sets of their respective matches with relative comfort, but then seemed to capitulate and fall apart... Kohlschreiber did enough to win his match, but Hantuchova was beaten outright although both failed to cover the spread on offer from a position of strength.
Kohlschreiber's match is hard to explain without watching it as he won the first set 6-1 while being fairly comfortable on serve, and then lost 1-6 in the next set while barely being able to win points on his own serve.
Hantuchova looked like being in a position where she would cruise through as she moved a set and a break up, but maybe the travel from Thailand got to her as she fell apart in the second set and then was beaten in a third set tie-break.
Both Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo and Mikhail Youzhny lost the second sets in their matches too, but both at least made it a day where a minimal defeat was suffered, albeit with Robby Ginepri to play.
As with the other days, a lot of the layers seem to be taken their time getting their markets together for all the tennis that is taking place across the board so the picks will come up as soon as they are available and I will do my best to put them up in adequate time although that cannot always be possible with work demands.
I will update my Twitter page whenever the picks are made with a link to this post (@DavAulak)
Marcos Baghdatis - 4.5 games v Matthias Bachinger: The spread is a little dangerous as any kind of form like I have experienced over the last couple of days will effectively kill my chances before the match is even close to being completed, but I do think Marcos Baghdatis can get the better of his German opponent here.
Matthias Bachinger has won a couple of matches to qualify for this tournament, and he will provide a tough test I am sure, but Marcos Baghdatis did beat him comfortably when they last met and showed some good form in reaching the Semi Final in Zagreb ten days ago.
Baghdatis should be a little too consistent for Bachinger although I do expect a tight first set between the players. I just feel Baghdatis is capable of creating chances on the Bachinger serve and will have the opportunity for a couple of breaks in one of the sets and thus able to cover this spread.
The Cypriot will need to serve at around 58-63% of first serves and that should allow him to hold serve without too many issues and thus allow him to focus his energy on breaking Bachinger's service games. As I say, it will be close but I think Baghdatis wins 6-4, 6-2.
Potito Starace - 1.5 games v Paul Capdeville: Now the only reason I can see for this small spread is the fact that Capdeville has been playing only in clay court tournaments since the end of last season, while Potito Starace has to travel in from Europe having been in Davis Cup action for Italy on an indoor hard court.
The bottom line for me here is that Starace is at his most comfortable on a clay court and the schedulers have been kind enough to give him a couple of extra days to get used to the conditions and the change in time zone in Brazil.
Capdeville does not have much success at this level of competition any more and was beaten last year in his home tournament by the Italian so I am not sure why the layers think this will be as close as this.
The Chilean does have 3 Qualifying wins behind him here, but I just think Starace will be too strong, although it could take 3 sets to separate them.
David Nalbandian - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: Now the spread is a little high considering this is only a best of three match, but I think David Nalbandian will be too good on the ground for his young French opponent, one who has not played any competitive tennis since the Australian Open.
There is the intangible of how Nalbandian is feeling after playing in Europe in the Davis Cup, although he did look very good after a shaky first set against Florian Mayer. Nalbandian will exert plenty of pressure if on his game, especially with his attacking return of serve and that may cause Paire all sorts of problems today.
Paire is beginning to play more and more tennis at the main event level as he looks to push on now he has reached the top 100. He is young and will be getting used to the conditions having not played on a clay court this season. I just think that Nalbandian still thrives on matches like this, even if he is not as consistent as he was in his prime.
With the pressure from the returns, I can see Nalbandian getting a couple of breaks of serve per set, and that should hopefully be enough to see him over the spread.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Potito Starace - 1.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 4.5 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.56 (16 Units Staked) Still have Robby Ginepri to play
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