After a tough stretch in the regular season, the post-season has at least been a little better with the picks going 6-4 and with this final game to go... One that I feel will be definitely worth viewing for all.
So how do I think this game will break down:
We all know what the New England Patriots (15-3) are about- It all begins with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, with the other players just fitting into a model of professionalism, a system that has clearly served them well over the years.
There has always been some special players on either side of the ball that has complemented the two key members of the Patriots, this year being the turn of Rob Gronkowski, but it really all begins and ends with Belichick and Brady.
The big story before this game is the health of Gronkowski, but I would be more than just a little surprised if he does not take part in this game. As you would have heard throughout the week, his running routes do not involve a lot of cuts so his high ankle sprain will be relatively protected unless taken down in a tackle.
The Patriots will look to take their chances against this Giants Secondary, although a lot of their passing prowess is horizontally with routes from the flat rather than the vertical game that took them to their unbeaten path through to the SuperBowl in 2007.
A key to this game is whether the Giants front 4 has been cooled off by the 2 week break between the Conference Championship Games and the game tonight, as they had built a lot of momentum in the last 5 weeks of the season. They should be able to penetrate the Patriots Offensive Line, although I am not a fan of the Giants poking Brady with a big stick and announcing that they think he is a little scared of them.
It is obviously very important for the Giants to get some penetration into the backfield as Brady can be turned into a mere mortal with pressure in his face... If they can do this consistently, it will slow down the Patriots Offense as a whole, while also giving New York their best opportunity to win the game outright.
On the other side of the ball, I do expect Eli Manning to show why he considers himself to be an 'elite' Quarterback and also shoving a few taunts he received in the media back down the throats of those who made them before the season started.
He has his full complement of receivers that will match up very well with the New England Secondary and I expect one of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz to have a big game.
Manning will also be ably backed up by a running game that was non-existent for much of the season, but one that has come alive in the Play Offs. New England were torched effectively by Baltimore and I have no reason to think that New York will not have enough success in this game to keep the chains moving and help keep Brady and the Patriots Offense off the field.
Like a lot of people out there, I do like the Giants to win this game for the following reasons:
First, I think they do generate enough pressure to keep Brady from just sitting in the pocket and decimating the Secondary... That will be the key to this entire pick as it has been the foundation for the Giants moving through to this game.
Second, Eli Manning should be able to have his way with a New England Secondary that struggled to stop Baltimore at times in their game, and I think the Giants are a better Offense than they have faced this season.
Third, the Giants should not have too much fear in this game considering they knocked off the Patriots 4 years ago and they have also been to Foxboro this season and won a game with a last minute drive.
Fourth, the higher seed has gone just 1-11-2 against the spread in the last 14 SuperBowl games.
It should be a fascinating game tonight, but I don't think it will be as high scoring as the layers are expecting and the 54 points looks a touch high to me, although it will get close to the total I am sure.
If you go to the right places, especially if you are in Vegas, it might be a nice little double to play the Giants with the points and taking the under total, although it is a shame we missed the 56 points the total opened up.
You may be a little worried with the Patriots in a 'revenge' spot after losing earlier this season, and they do have an impressive 11-2 record against the spread in such a spot, but I think the Giants are better in all aspects bar the Head Coach and the Quarterback, but even those two spots you would say New York are not too far behind.
MY PICK: New York Giants + 2.5 Points/Under 54 Points Double @ 3.60 (1 Unit) Most British layers will not accept this, but you can use other places OR if you're lucky enough to be in Vegas
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