At the end of the Australian Open a couple of weeks ago, I said I would not be making any picks from the tennis circuit until the Davis Cup was beginning as I wasn't entirely sure how serious some players would be taken the few tournaments we had in the last two weeks.
Now the draw for the ties came out a while ago, but the actual order of the matches was decided earlier today and there are some matches that do interest me, although the layers have been remarkably slow on the uptake and that means they have not put up their entire prices for all the markets that could be of interest.
With that being said, it means I will not be making any picks at this moment, BUT I am hoping that all the markets will be ready by the time I get to work in the morning, and I will put up my picks at that moment.
Until then, I would keep an eye on my Twitter account where I will update as soon as the picks have been locked in... With a little luck, the first picks will be put up at least a couple of hours before the Switzerland-USA tie begins at Midday British time.
Update 12pm Friday 10th February: I was beginning to give up expecting the handicaps to be posted, but patience has finally paid off as some, not all, of the layers got their act together and offered up prices.
Below I will have Day 1 Picks from the Davis Cup and will update this thread over the course of the weekend as ties are completed;
DAY 1 DAVIS CUP PICKS
Juan Monaco - 5.5 games vs Philipp Petzschner: This will be the first time these players are meeting, but I have a feeling the spread is a little too low considering the Argentine player is coming in off an impressive win in the tournament held in Chile last week.
The only reason I can offer for this is the fact that he has had to travel into Europe over the last few days and the fact that this is an away tie for Argentina, but this is more than a winnable contest for Monaco.
Petzschner has not played a lot of tennis in 2012 with early exits in the three tournaments he has entered, and he has never really pulled up any trees on a clay court, going 11-11 in main tour events over the last two seasons.
Monaco doesn't have a great record in Davis Cup for his country, but the clay court should suit him better and I think he should come through 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3.
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 6.5 games vs Mikhail Kukushkin: This is another match where I think the spread would usually be a lot higher, but has been skewed by the fact that Mikhail Kukushkin had such an impressive tournament at the Australian Open.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has seen his best playing days come and go, but he is still a tough test for players on a clay court and that gives him a huge edge here, particularly in front of the passionate Spanish fans.
Last season, Ferrero won a tournament on the surface as well as reaching the Semi Final and Quarter Final in others and is still more than capable of providing a stern test for those who are less comfortable with the red dirt underneath their feet.
Kukushkin falls into that category as his 1-6 record in main tour events last season indicates, and he was heavily beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro and Juan Monaco in Davis Cup action on a clay court too.
A hard court would have made this a much more intriguing contest in my eyes, but I think Ferrero will be too good on a clay court and come through 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.
Roger Federer - 7 games vs John Isner: This will be the second rubber in the Switzerland-USA tie and one that many are looking forward to as Roger Federer plays the opening Davis Cup tie for the first time in a while.
It is clear that Federer is very keen to defend his Doubles Gold Medal at the Olympics this Summer, as well as trying to win a Singles, and his presence has definitely given Switzerland the edge in the tie.
John Isner pushed Rafael Nadal all the way to five sets at the French Open last season so there is a chance that he can spring a surprise, although he has struggled against Federer in the past. They have met twice, both on hard courts, and Isner has fashioned just ONE break point in those matches, losing 5 of the 6 sets they have competed in.
I think Federer will make enough balls back on the service games to suggest he will have chances to break serve and I think that will be the telling angle in this game for him to cover the spread.
The former World Number 1 looked good at the Australian Open and the clay court will only aid him more than it does Isner in this match so I expect he will eventually prove too strong in a 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 victory.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: This match intrigued me as David Nalbandian is not the player he used to be and the fact he was beaten fairly comfortably by Florian Mayer at the back end of last season, albeit on a hard court.
However, I think Nalbandian has begun to reserve his best tennis for these Davis Cup ties and he has an impressive 22-5 record in Singles action, going 7-1 in his last 8 rubbers.
Mayer is no slouch on a clay court and has been playing some of the best tennis in his career over the last season, but he has only recently come off an injury and has not played a lot of tennis recently. Nalbandian's return of serve should ensure that Mayer is forced to work hard to win points and I can this being a gruelling encounter for the German where his fitness will be tested to the full.
Nalbandian is coming to the end of a very successful career, and I think he does feel there is still a window open for Argentina to win the Davis Cup, while the clay courts should favour his game.
I expect a couple of close sets to begin, but if Nalbandian can split the first two, I expect him to go on and win in four... 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
James Ward vs Martin Klizan: This is the second rubber from the Great Britain-Slovakia tie this afternoon and I am going to back the British player to win as the underdog on a fast indoor surface.
Martin Klizan should not be underestimated as his lefty serve alone should cause problems, but he is a player that has not really had a lot of success on the indoor hard courts over the last year, going 9-11 in all tour events (both main tour and Challenger circuits).
Klizan has shown he has the temperament to compete in Davis Cup ties by winning both rubbers against the Ukrainians in the last time for Slovakia, but I think it could be a tough test for him against James Ward in an Arena where has enjoyed some good times.
Ward has really struggled to make an impact on the main tour, although he did manage to qualify for the Australian Open recently. Without Andy Murray, there is a bit more pressure on Ward to win this tie, as Great Britain are unlikely to go through without that, but he has performed well in this position before.
The Brit went 4-1 in Davis Cup ties last year, his only loss coming to Gilles Muller, and this will not be easy. However, he is set as the slight underdog in this one and I think he is worth chancing to at least give Britain a fighting chance to win this tie.
It won't be easy, and could go to five sets, but I'll have a chance on Ward
DAY 1 Picks: Juan Monaco - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 2.00 188Bet (2 Units)
James Ward @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
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Friday, 10 February 2012
English Football Weekend Picks (February 11-12)
Wow, what more can I say about the miserable start I have made to February as games continue to surprise me with the way they have been going...
I have blamed myself for some poor picks so far and am hoping the week between Premier League games has given me enough of a chance to recharge the batteries and get back on-line.
Hopefully it will be a better week all around... I will post my picks up during the next 24 hours and will update Twitter whenever new picks have been placed on the blog.
Blackburn Rovers v QPR Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13157-Blackburn-Rovers-v-QPR.htm)
Fulham v Stoke City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13160-Fulham-v-Stoke-City.htm)
Everton v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13161-Everton-v-Chelsea.htm)
Sunderland v Arsenal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13162-Sunderland-v-Arsenal.htm)
Manchester United v Liverpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13164-Manchester-United-v-Liverpool.htm)
Swansea v Norwich City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13165-Swansea-v-Norwich-City.htm)
Peterborough United v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13177-Peterborough-United-v-West-Ham.htm)
Southampton v Burnley Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13178-Southampton-v-Burnley.htm)
Wolves v West Brom Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13184-Wolves-v-West-Brom.htm)
Aston Villa v Manchester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13185-Aston-Villa-v-Manchester-City.htm)
MY PICKS: Blackburn Rovers-QPR Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fulham @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 188Bet (2 Units)
Sunderland-Arsenal Draw @ 3.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Ham @ 2.10 William Hill (1 Unit)
Southampton-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 SkyBet (1 Unit)
Wolves-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Draw HT-Manchester City FT @ 4.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
I have blamed myself for some poor picks so far and am hoping the week between Premier League games has given me enough of a chance to recharge the batteries and get back on-line.
Hopefully it will be a better week all around... I will post my picks up during the next 24 hours and will update Twitter whenever new picks have been placed on the blog.
Blackburn Rovers v QPR Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13157-Blackburn-Rovers-v-QPR.htm)
Fulham v Stoke City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13160-Fulham-v-Stoke-City.htm)
Everton v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13161-Everton-v-Chelsea.htm)
Sunderland v Arsenal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13162-Sunderland-v-Arsenal.htm)
Manchester United v Liverpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13164-Manchester-United-v-Liverpool.htm)
Swansea v Norwich City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13165-Swansea-v-Norwich-City.htm)
Peterborough United v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13177-Peterborough-United-v-West-Ham.htm)
Southampton v Burnley Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13178-Southampton-v-Burnley.htm)
Wolves v West Brom Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13184-Wolves-v-West-Brom.htm)
Aston Villa v Manchester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13185-Aston-Villa-v-Manchester-City.htm)
MY PICKS: Blackburn Rovers-QPR Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fulham @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 188Bet (2 Units)
Sunderland-Arsenal Draw @ 3.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Ham @ 2.10 William Hill (1 Unit)
Southampton-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 SkyBet (1 Unit)
Wolves-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Draw HT-Manchester City FT @ 4.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Thursday, 9 February 2012
Fabio Capello Leaves England Post
So everyone would have heard by now that Fabio Capello has decided to leave his position as manager of the England national team and I have been a little surprised by some of the reactions across the board, although others are more understandable.
The first thing I would like to say is that I fully agree with Capello's reasoning for walking from the job, even at this moment just four months before England are due to take part in the Euro 2012 tournament in Poland/Ukraine. The FA have completely botched the way they have handled the John Terry case, and stripping of the Captaincy was the final straw for the Italian.
It is no surprise to see the FA once again making the wrong decision- I don't think England should have John Terry leading them with the charge that was levelled against him, especially not before he was found innocent. Racism is too big an issue for the FA to take the wait and see approach and their first big mistake was not to remove the Captain's armband from Terry back in October when the issue with Anton Ferdinand came to light.
Even then, they could have been excused in waiting to see what the police investigation had resulted in before making the decision. The second opportunity for the FA was when it was made clear that there was ENOUGH of an issue that Terry should hear his case in front of a magistrates court. This was another opportunity that was lost on the FA to ask Terry to give up the armband.
So what exactly has changed in the last three months that they now decided they will not wait until the court case, but they will strip Terry of the armband now? Like I say, I disagreed that Terry was allowed to keep the Captaincy as far as this, but there has been nothing that should have made the FA change their mind from October to February.
It was completely reasonable to expect Fabio Capello was not going to take it positively when the FA decided that it was correct, after all, to take the armband off Terry. I also think it is no surprise that the likes of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger offered their support to Capello- I can't imagine either of those two managers would be treated in this manner by their clubs, especially not after offering implied support for four months.
The FA have been poorly run and advised through this whole issue so far... I like watching other sports as well as football and I just think the way the Pittsburgh Steelers dealt with Ben Roethlisberger (suspended for the first four games in 2010) after he was alleged, but never convicted, of sexual assualt on a girl was the way the FA should have dealt with the Terry case- it should have made an immediate decision on how they were going to move forward, rather than swaying left and right with their opinion and finishing off by undermining their manager.
A lot of people have been very happy to see Capello leave the job, but it once again highlights the level of incompetency at the FA... Capello had done a fabulous job of picking up a group of players that had failed to QUALIFY for the Euro 2008 tournament while leading them to a simple and effective qualification for the World Cup in 2010.
I don't disagree that the tournament performances were not good enough for the public, with England struggling against the USA, Algeria and Slovenia before being beaten by Germany in the last 16. Even then, who knows what the side would have done if England's 'goal' from Frank Lampard was allowed to stand when the game was stuck at 1-1?
The FA again failed to make a real decision and decided to keep Capello on after that tournament, even after most people wanted the Italian removed for the dressing room unhappiness and shocking performances. It seems the last 18 months has convinced those in power down in Soho that Capello was not the man after all, and they seemed to undermine him here, although I won't say how deliberately I think that is. This has also left the National team in a very tough spot to really compete in the upcoming tournament and is another insight into the poor workings at the Association.
As soon as the news was released, you saw how some people were celebrating like England were now free from the 'foreigners shackles' and would be allowed to play with 'passion' that would help them win tournaments- the reactions of Barry Fry and Neil Warnock were particularly funny to watch.
Fry has always been 'passionate', but his criticisms were a joke considering Fabio Capello has more Champions League winning medals (1) as a manager than Fry has managerial experience in the top flight (0) of English football... If ever there is proof that 'passion' will not take you to the top, take a quick look at the amount of teams Fry has 'fired up' to even get to the top flight.
Another manager who was open to all channels to air his voice was Neil Warnock... Yes, the same Neil Warnock who has recently been heavily criticised by his former Captain, Joey Barton, for essentially having no knowledge of tactics or setting his team up properly in preparation for games.
Yet here was Warnock spouting off at being 'over the moon' that Capello had left, a manager who has won more League titles (6) than Warnock has had years managing in the top flight (2.5 years).
The likes of Fry and Warnock think it's easy to inspire by being passionate and 'bringing humour into the dressing room' but both have been shown up when it comes to actually managing, with the latter being heavily criticised for his ability by his former Captain just a week after leaving QPR.
Their reactions are very similar to what a lot of fans were saying when on the airwaves, and from what I have heard from friends and work colleagues since Capello was fired. The thoughts that it was 'all the foreigners fault' because he wasn't 'passionate' are a joke considering England have hardly pulled up trees since winning the World Cup in 1966, a time since they have had just 2 foreign managers.
Steve McClaren failed to qualify for the Euro 2008 tournament, Kevin Keegan proved totally out of his depth, while the less said about Graham Taylor the better.
The players seem to escape some of the criticism as people buy into the Sky Sports mantra that the 'Premier League is the best League in the World'... But how much of that is down to the English players? It is the foreign players and managers that have helped the League move forward and it is telling that no English manager has won a League title since 1992.
Now in saying that, I think Harry Redknapp should be given the job if the FA have decided it is time for an English manager to take charge. He has the credentials in recent seasons to suggest he would do a decent enough job, although I am sure it will all end in tears as it usually does for England.
The bottom line is that the players are simply not good enough to win a major international tournament right now. There are some positives as I think Jack Wilshire, Joe Hart and Wayne Rooney can help lead England to the next few tournaments, but I just don't believe there are enough quality players coming through to expect England to make a real impact at a big international event... And no, I don't count the Olympics as a major tournament.
Redknapp would be a popular choice for both players and the media, and I think he has earned this opportunity ahead of Roy Hodgson, who would have been a major favourite outside of his time at Liverpool.
The one person who should NOT be getting the job is Stuart Pearce and I am really surprised his has positioned himself in such a way that he is now second favourite to take the job on a permanent basis. His time at Manchester City was an absolute joke, and I am not sure he has the CV to take the 'top job in England' based on being part of the set-up and managing the Under-21 team? I am frankly a little stunned to seem him in the position he is and I just am left scratching my head at this development...
With Harry Redknapp being the most likely choice to fill the England manager's post, it will mean there is one big vacancy in the Premier League in the coming months as the Tottenham Hotspur job would be available.
There has been a lot of big talk over who should take over if it does become available, with a lot of people mentioning Jose Mourinho, although I am sure the Portuguese manager has his eye on just one job in England at the moment, the one that is likely to come up at Old Trafford in the next few seasons.
I really hope that David Moyes is offered the job at White Hart Lane as I think he is the most under-rated and deserving manager in the Premier League. Moyes has been brilliant in his time at Everton, getting the best out of a limited squad and he clearly has an eye for a good purchase as we saw when he brought in Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill.
The Scot has never had the money that the 'big' clubs have enjoyed, yet he consistently has Everton exceeding expectations and also led them to a Champions League in 2005. I think Moyes would really flourish at White Hart Lane and I think he would maintain their success that they have enjoyed in recent seasons.
I always thought it was a shame that Moyes has not added a bit of silverware to his time at Goodison Park, but I think it would be a good time for him to move on and show his capabilities at a higher level. I have a lot of respect for Moyes, and would be very happy if he is given his chance at White Hart Lane, IF the job is available this Summer.
The first thing I would like to say is that I fully agree with Capello's reasoning for walking from the job, even at this moment just four months before England are due to take part in the Euro 2012 tournament in Poland/Ukraine. The FA have completely botched the way they have handled the John Terry case, and stripping of the Captaincy was the final straw for the Italian.
It is no surprise to see the FA once again making the wrong decision- I don't think England should have John Terry leading them with the charge that was levelled against him, especially not before he was found innocent. Racism is too big an issue for the FA to take the wait and see approach and their first big mistake was not to remove the Captain's armband from Terry back in October when the issue with Anton Ferdinand came to light.
Even then, they could have been excused in waiting to see what the police investigation had resulted in before making the decision. The second opportunity for the FA was when it was made clear that there was ENOUGH of an issue that Terry should hear his case in front of a magistrates court. This was another opportunity that was lost on the FA to ask Terry to give up the armband.
So what exactly has changed in the last three months that they now decided they will not wait until the court case, but they will strip Terry of the armband now? Like I say, I disagreed that Terry was allowed to keep the Captaincy as far as this, but there has been nothing that should have made the FA change their mind from October to February.
It was completely reasonable to expect Fabio Capello was not going to take it positively when the FA decided that it was correct, after all, to take the armband off Terry. I also think it is no surprise that the likes of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger offered their support to Capello- I can't imagine either of those two managers would be treated in this manner by their clubs, especially not after offering implied support for four months.
The FA have been poorly run and advised through this whole issue so far... I like watching other sports as well as football and I just think the way the Pittsburgh Steelers dealt with Ben Roethlisberger (suspended for the first four games in 2010) after he was alleged, but never convicted, of sexual assualt on a girl was the way the FA should have dealt with the Terry case- it should have made an immediate decision on how they were going to move forward, rather than swaying left and right with their opinion and finishing off by undermining their manager.
A lot of people have been very happy to see Capello leave the job, but it once again highlights the level of incompetency at the FA... Capello had done a fabulous job of picking up a group of players that had failed to QUALIFY for the Euro 2008 tournament while leading them to a simple and effective qualification for the World Cup in 2010.
I don't disagree that the tournament performances were not good enough for the public, with England struggling against the USA, Algeria and Slovenia before being beaten by Germany in the last 16. Even then, who knows what the side would have done if England's 'goal' from Frank Lampard was allowed to stand when the game was stuck at 1-1?
The FA again failed to make a real decision and decided to keep Capello on after that tournament, even after most people wanted the Italian removed for the dressing room unhappiness and shocking performances. It seems the last 18 months has convinced those in power down in Soho that Capello was not the man after all, and they seemed to undermine him here, although I won't say how deliberately I think that is. This has also left the National team in a very tough spot to really compete in the upcoming tournament and is another insight into the poor workings at the Association.
As soon as the news was released, you saw how some people were celebrating like England were now free from the 'foreigners shackles' and would be allowed to play with 'passion' that would help them win tournaments- the reactions of Barry Fry and Neil Warnock were particularly funny to watch.
Fry has always been 'passionate', but his criticisms were a joke considering Fabio Capello has more Champions League winning medals (1) as a manager than Fry has managerial experience in the top flight (0) of English football... If ever there is proof that 'passion' will not take you to the top, take a quick look at the amount of teams Fry has 'fired up' to even get to the top flight.
Another manager who was open to all channels to air his voice was Neil Warnock... Yes, the same Neil Warnock who has recently been heavily criticised by his former Captain, Joey Barton, for essentially having no knowledge of tactics or setting his team up properly in preparation for games.
Yet here was Warnock spouting off at being 'over the moon' that Capello had left, a manager who has won more League titles (6) than Warnock has had years managing in the top flight (2.5 years).
The likes of Fry and Warnock think it's easy to inspire by being passionate and 'bringing humour into the dressing room' but both have been shown up when it comes to actually managing, with the latter being heavily criticised for his ability by his former Captain just a week after leaving QPR.
Their reactions are very similar to what a lot of fans were saying when on the airwaves, and from what I have heard from friends and work colleagues since Capello was fired. The thoughts that it was 'all the foreigners fault' because he wasn't 'passionate' are a joke considering England have hardly pulled up trees since winning the World Cup in 1966, a time since they have had just 2 foreign managers.
Steve McClaren failed to qualify for the Euro 2008 tournament, Kevin Keegan proved totally out of his depth, while the less said about Graham Taylor the better.
The players seem to escape some of the criticism as people buy into the Sky Sports mantra that the 'Premier League is the best League in the World'... But how much of that is down to the English players? It is the foreign players and managers that have helped the League move forward and it is telling that no English manager has won a League title since 1992.
Now in saying that, I think Harry Redknapp should be given the job if the FA have decided it is time for an English manager to take charge. He has the credentials in recent seasons to suggest he would do a decent enough job, although I am sure it will all end in tears as it usually does for England.
The bottom line is that the players are simply not good enough to win a major international tournament right now. There are some positives as I think Jack Wilshire, Joe Hart and Wayne Rooney can help lead England to the next few tournaments, but I just don't believe there are enough quality players coming through to expect England to make a real impact at a big international event... And no, I don't count the Olympics as a major tournament.
Redknapp would be a popular choice for both players and the media, and I think he has earned this opportunity ahead of Roy Hodgson, who would have been a major favourite outside of his time at Liverpool.
The one person who should NOT be getting the job is Stuart Pearce and I am really surprised his has positioned himself in such a way that he is now second favourite to take the job on a permanent basis. His time at Manchester City was an absolute joke, and I am not sure he has the CV to take the 'top job in England' based on being part of the set-up and managing the Under-21 team? I am frankly a little stunned to seem him in the position he is and I just am left scratching my head at this development...
With Harry Redknapp being the most likely choice to fill the England manager's post, it will mean there is one big vacancy in the Premier League in the coming months as the Tottenham Hotspur job would be available.
There has been a lot of big talk over who should take over if it does become available, with a lot of people mentioning Jose Mourinho, although I am sure the Portuguese manager has his eye on just one job in England at the moment, the one that is likely to come up at Old Trafford in the next few seasons.
I really hope that David Moyes is offered the job at White Hart Lane as I think he is the most under-rated and deserving manager in the Premier League. Moyes has been brilliant in his time at Everton, getting the best out of a limited squad and he clearly has an eye for a good purchase as we saw when he brought in Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill.
The Scot has never had the money that the 'big' clubs have enjoyed, yet he consistently has Everton exceeding expectations and also led them to a Champions League in 2005. I think Moyes would really flourish at White Hart Lane and I think he would maintain their success that they have enjoyed in recent seasons.
I always thought it was a shame that Moyes has not added a bit of silverware to his time at Goodison Park, but I think it would be a good time for him to move on and show his capabilities at a higher level. I have a lot of respect for Moyes, and would be very happy if he is given his chance at White Hart Lane, IF the job is available this Summer.
Wednesday, 8 February 2012
NFL/NCAA Season Recap
I actually cannot believe that the NFL/NCAA Football seasons are already over after six months of fascinating stories that culminated with the Alabama Crimson Tide and the New York Giants being crowned as the Champions.
I easily had my worst time ever picking NFL games as the weekly results kept throwing up surprises, something I have put down to the lockout inspired season. There are some results I will never understand, for example seeing the New Orleans Saints lose, indoors no less, to the St Louis Rams as the 14 point favourites.
Or how about the thought that the Super Bowl Champions, the Giants, lost twice to the Washington Redskins and also to Seattle at home.
It was a season dominated by stories concerning Andrew Luck and the 'Suck for Luck' sweepstakes that were eventually 'won' by the Indianapolis Colts, although that does mean that we are VERY unlikely to be seeing Peyton Manning play in the Blue again.
The Manning story looks to dominate the next month before free agency starts as we get closer and closer to the March 8th deadline when he is due a roster bonus from the Colts, or will be cut from the team. Then we will get the Washington Redskins and the Miami Dolphins fighting for the signature, as well as Matt Flynn from the Green Bay Packers.
The NCAA season was much better in terms of reading the games, although it wouldn't have taken much for a blind monkey to do well on that front considering the favourites were dominant against the spread for much of the early part of the season.
The top 6-10 teams in the nation were head and shoulders clear of the rest and has once again got people clamouring for a Play Off system after Alabama were controversially picked to play the LSU Tigers in New Orleans for the National Championship. It seems the prospect of the top 4 being invited into a Semi Final and then a Final has been raised again and could potentially be brought in for the 2014 season.
We have already got through 'Signing Day' for new College recruits, and the next 4-5 months we will get to see which teams have begun filling in the gaps the most effectively. At the moment, the LSU Tigers look to be in a great position to get back to the National Championship Game and possibly go one further, although all the stories will be about the Bowl Eligible USC Trojans who have been given a boost by the returning Matt Barkley at QB.
Fortunately, we will not have daily updates of how the Labour Negotiations are going, like we did last season, and the NFL will revert to a familiar pattern moving forward to the Draft in April. That also means we will get the 'excitement' of free agency from March 13th, although I have generally been disappointed with the action the Miami Dolphins take when that comes about.
Looking ahead at this early stage to the next season, you would imagine the likes of Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Giants will be the leading contenders in the NFC, with the likes of Philadelphia and Detroit being definite dark horses to upset the apple cart.
The AFC has less teams that can really make an impact in my mind, with New England, Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh being the leading teams before Free Agency and the Draft have been completed. We could see another improvement from Cincinnati if they are smart in the Draft, while I expect better from the New York Jets and San Diego.
Seeing how the next four months develop will help sharpen these thoughts in what was another entertaining season at both College and professional levels.
NCAA Season 2011-12: 63-36, + 23.25 Units
NFL Season 2011-12: 80-83-2, - 13.72 Units
I easily had my worst time ever picking NFL games as the weekly results kept throwing up surprises, something I have put down to the lockout inspired season. There are some results I will never understand, for example seeing the New Orleans Saints lose, indoors no less, to the St Louis Rams as the 14 point favourites.
Or how about the thought that the Super Bowl Champions, the Giants, lost twice to the Washington Redskins and also to Seattle at home.
It was a season dominated by stories concerning Andrew Luck and the 'Suck for Luck' sweepstakes that were eventually 'won' by the Indianapolis Colts, although that does mean that we are VERY unlikely to be seeing Peyton Manning play in the Blue again.
The Manning story looks to dominate the next month before free agency starts as we get closer and closer to the March 8th deadline when he is due a roster bonus from the Colts, or will be cut from the team. Then we will get the Washington Redskins and the Miami Dolphins fighting for the signature, as well as Matt Flynn from the Green Bay Packers.
The NCAA season was much better in terms of reading the games, although it wouldn't have taken much for a blind monkey to do well on that front considering the favourites were dominant against the spread for much of the early part of the season.
The top 6-10 teams in the nation were head and shoulders clear of the rest and has once again got people clamouring for a Play Off system after Alabama were controversially picked to play the LSU Tigers in New Orleans for the National Championship. It seems the prospect of the top 4 being invited into a Semi Final and then a Final has been raised again and could potentially be brought in for the 2014 season.
We have already got through 'Signing Day' for new College recruits, and the next 4-5 months we will get to see which teams have begun filling in the gaps the most effectively. At the moment, the LSU Tigers look to be in a great position to get back to the National Championship Game and possibly go one further, although all the stories will be about the Bowl Eligible USC Trojans who have been given a boost by the returning Matt Barkley at QB.
Fortunately, we will not have daily updates of how the Labour Negotiations are going, like we did last season, and the NFL will revert to a familiar pattern moving forward to the Draft in April. That also means we will get the 'excitement' of free agency from March 13th, although I have generally been disappointed with the action the Miami Dolphins take when that comes about.
Looking ahead at this early stage to the next season, you would imagine the likes of Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Giants will be the leading contenders in the NFC, with the likes of Philadelphia and Detroit being definite dark horses to upset the apple cart.
The AFC has less teams that can really make an impact in my mind, with New England, Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh being the leading teams before Free Agency and the Draft have been completed. We could see another improvement from Cincinnati if they are smart in the Draft, while I expect better from the New York Jets and San Diego.
Seeing how the next four months develop will help sharpen these thoughts in what was another entertaining season at both College and professional levels.
NCAA Season 2011-12: 63-36, + 23.25 Units
NFL Season 2011-12: 80-83-2, - 13.72 Units
Tuesday, 7 February 2012
A few thoughts from the last week in Football (February 1-7)
Due to the work load in the early part of the New Year, I have not been able to get too many of my own thoughts down in recent weeks, although it does seem a little easier now there is no Grand Slam tennis, the American Football season is over and there is a slight lull in the amount of football to be played this week as the Champions League and Europa League begin next week.
There have been some real issues over the last week that have caught my eye and I will get to them now:
Kenny Dalglish's latest comments are just ridiculous: Over the last week, we have seen Fabio Capello being roundly criticised in the media for his comments about the FA stripping John Terry of the England Captain role after his trial for alleged racial abuse was pushed back to July, after the Euro 2012 tournament was to be concluded.
Capello told Italian TV that he did not agree with the decision and that Terry should only have been punished if he had been found guilty and not beforehand, something I have to disagree with myself.
We all saw how the Pittsburgh Steelers dealt with Ben Roethlisberger's indiscretions a couple of years ago, even though there was nothing that he was charged with by the police at the time, so I think the FA have made the correct decision to not have Terry representing the country in a European tournament.
So while Capello has been ridiculed in places, while others have asked for him to be removed as manager of the national team, Kenny Dalglish told Sky Sports that 'Suarez should never have been banned in the first place', comments that have not provoked the outrage that Capello's did.
Now I don't know how Dalglish can continue to undermine the FA's decision without being punished, and I really don't understand why he is not being criticised heavily for a foolish defence of a player that has been found guilty of racial statements.
I understand managers want to protect their players, but to continually bring up the issue with these crass remarks shows little class, remorse or regret at the way things have been handled.
These kind of remarks make it easier for the morons out there to make their own ridiculous gestures and statements, as we have seen at the Liverpool-Oldham game in the FA Cup, as well as another being caught in the recent game between Liverpool and Manchester United making monkey gestures at Patrice Evra... The manager has shown little or no intention to let this issue go, and some of the supporters are taking it as their cue to act out their racial tendencies, believing there will be no repercussions.
Talking about morons, what was with the Chelsea fans booing Rio Ferdinand? I could not believe for the life of me that Rio Ferdinand was booed throughout the game at Stamford Bridge on Sunday and it makes me really worry about the mentality of some people that are allowed into football grounds...
You see I am of the opinion that the people booing Ferdinand are in one of two camps: Either they are too stupid to realise it was ANTON Ferdinand of QPR that made the allegations against John Terry and not RIO Ferdinand of Manchester United, OR they are knowingly booing a player whose brother was supposedly racially abused by another player?
Personally, I don't particularly care the which of those two reasons the Chelsea fans decided they fall into, either way they sounded like a bunch of morons... It goes to show how far some people leave their morals at the gates when they go to 'support' their football team and I personally think it's a disgrace.
The fella arrested at Old Trafford for alleged racist comments during the game with Stoke City: I hope this guy is banned from coming back to a Manchester United game as it is something I have never encountered in all my years of watching our boys play.
United fans have always been proud of being Reds, and that is the only colour we have ever cared about, so anything else is not welcome at Old Trafford.
The 3-3 draw between Chelsea and Manchester United was a fitting tribute to the Busby Babes: The anniversary of the Munich Air Disaster was on Monday and it was a fitting game of football played between Chelsea and Manchester United on Sunday, one that would have made Sir Matt very proud I'm sure.
Over the years, we have always heard the rubbish about 'Fergie Time' due to the number of late goals we get, but this game on Sunday showed WHY United have done so- they just don't know when they are beaten!
It was sloppiness (and a tremendous finish from Juan Mata) that left United in a huge hole after 50 minutes, but the game was dominated by the Reds and they deserved a lot more than the 1 point they earned, although it felt like more than that at the end of the game.
It could have been a lot better for the team if Gary Cahill had perhaps received his marching orders in the first half for a mis-timed tackle on Danny Welbeck, while Sir Alex was understandably upset over the lack of decisions made by the Assistant Referee in the first half.
However, all of that should not distract from a fabulous game of football, a game in which both sides played their part.
It will be more than just a miracle if Wigan can maintain their position in the Premier League this season: I really like Dave Whelan and I think Roberto Martinez is a very good young manager, but I think this is going to be a step too far for them to save Wigan this season from the drop back to the Championship.
The problem is that the other sides in the bottom 6 places all seem capable of picking up points, even from games against sides in the upper end of the table, and that is the clear difference between those teams and Wigan.
They must consider the 1-1 draw with Everton at home as 2 points dropped after taking the lead with less than 15 minutes left on the clock, and this weekend is perhaps the biggest game they will face as they visit Bolton Wanderers... Lose that one, and I think the Funeral March will begin playing on their Premier League future.
I can't praise Alan Pardew and Newcastle United enough: I have said this before, but I remain totally impressed with the job Alan Pardew has done this season as Newcastle United remain in the hunt for a VERY surprising Champions League berth.
I really thought they may have a tough second season back in the Premier League, but Demba Ba has been an inspired signing, while the rest of the team have bought into the work ethic that has made them so tough to get the better of.
I still think getting into Europe through their League place would be an amazing achievement for the side; It still will be tough for them to finish above Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool for the 4th Champions League spot, but Pardew has to be in consideration for the 'Manager of the Year' award.
The only negative I can give the team is their lack of a real Cup run after this club has been starved of silverware for so long, but I have nothing but praise for their performances.
There have been some real issues over the last week that have caught my eye and I will get to them now:
Kenny Dalglish's latest comments are just ridiculous: Over the last week, we have seen Fabio Capello being roundly criticised in the media for his comments about the FA stripping John Terry of the England Captain role after his trial for alleged racial abuse was pushed back to July, after the Euro 2012 tournament was to be concluded.
Capello told Italian TV that he did not agree with the decision and that Terry should only have been punished if he had been found guilty and not beforehand, something I have to disagree with myself.
We all saw how the Pittsburgh Steelers dealt with Ben Roethlisberger's indiscretions a couple of years ago, even though there was nothing that he was charged with by the police at the time, so I think the FA have made the correct decision to not have Terry representing the country in a European tournament.
So while Capello has been ridiculed in places, while others have asked for him to be removed as manager of the national team, Kenny Dalglish told Sky Sports that 'Suarez should never have been banned in the first place', comments that have not provoked the outrage that Capello's did.
Now I don't know how Dalglish can continue to undermine the FA's decision without being punished, and I really don't understand why he is not being criticised heavily for a foolish defence of a player that has been found guilty of racial statements.
I understand managers want to protect their players, but to continually bring up the issue with these crass remarks shows little class, remorse or regret at the way things have been handled.
These kind of remarks make it easier for the morons out there to make their own ridiculous gestures and statements, as we have seen at the Liverpool-Oldham game in the FA Cup, as well as another being caught in the recent game between Liverpool and Manchester United making monkey gestures at Patrice Evra... The manager has shown little or no intention to let this issue go, and some of the supporters are taking it as their cue to act out their racial tendencies, believing there will be no repercussions.
Talking about morons, what was with the Chelsea fans booing Rio Ferdinand? I could not believe for the life of me that Rio Ferdinand was booed throughout the game at Stamford Bridge on Sunday and it makes me really worry about the mentality of some people that are allowed into football grounds...
You see I am of the opinion that the people booing Ferdinand are in one of two camps: Either they are too stupid to realise it was ANTON Ferdinand of QPR that made the allegations against John Terry and not RIO Ferdinand of Manchester United, OR they are knowingly booing a player whose brother was supposedly racially abused by another player?
Personally, I don't particularly care the which of those two reasons the Chelsea fans decided they fall into, either way they sounded like a bunch of morons... It goes to show how far some people leave their morals at the gates when they go to 'support' their football team and I personally think it's a disgrace.
The fella arrested at Old Trafford for alleged racist comments during the game with Stoke City: I hope this guy is banned from coming back to a Manchester United game as it is something I have never encountered in all my years of watching our boys play.
United fans have always been proud of being Reds, and that is the only colour we have ever cared about, so anything else is not welcome at Old Trafford.
The 3-3 draw between Chelsea and Manchester United was a fitting tribute to the Busby Babes: The anniversary of the Munich Air Disaster was on Monday and it was a fitting game of football played between Chelsea and Manchester United on Sunday, one that would have made Sir Matt very proud I'm sure.
Over the years, we have always heard the rubbish about 'Fergie Time' due to the number of late goals we get, but this game on Sunday showed WHY United have done so- they just don't know when they are beaten!
It was sloppiness (and a tremendous finish from Juan Mata) that left United in a huge hole after 50 minutes, but the game was dominated by the Reds and they deserved a lot more than the 1 point they earned, although it felt like more than that at the end of the game.
It could have been a lot better for the team if Gary Cahill had perhaps received his marching orders in the first half for a mis-timed tackle on Danny Welbeck, while Sir Alex was understandably upset over the lack of decisions made by the Assistant Referee in the first half.
However, all of that should not distract from a fabulous game of football, a game in which both sides played their part.
It will be more than just a miracle if Wigan can maintain their position in the Premier League this season: I really like Dave Whelan and I think Roberto Martinez is a very good young manager, but I think this is going to be a step too far for them to save Wigan this season from the drop back to the Championship.
The problem is that the other sides in the bottom 6 places all seem capable of picking up points, even from games against sides in the upper end of the table, and that is the clear difference between those teams and Wigan.
They must consider the 1-1 draw with Everton at home as 2 points dropped after taking the lead with less than 15 minutes left on the clock, and this weekend is perhaps the biggest game they will face as they visit Bolton Wanderers... Lose that one, and I think the Funeral March will begin playing on their Premier League future.
I can't praise Alan Pardew and Newcastle United enough: I have said this before, but I remain totally impressed with the job Alan Pardew has done this season as Newcastle United remain in the hunt for a VERY surprising Champions League berth.
I really thought they may have a tough second season back in the Premier League, but Demba Ba has been an inspired signing, while the rest of the team have bought into the work ethic that has made them so tough to get the better of.
I still think getting into Europe through their League place would be an amazing achievement for the side; It still will be tough for them to finish above Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool for the 4th Champions League spot, but Pardew has to be in consideration for the 'Manager of the Year' award.
The only negative I can give the team is their lack of a real Cup run after this club has been starved of silverware for so long, but I have nothing but praise for their performances.
Monday, 6 February 2012
English FA Cup Replays (February 7-8)
There isn't too much football going on this week, but we do have a few FA Cup replays to get through before the 5th Round commences a week on Saturday.
I will get through a few observations of the last week in football tomorrow, and on Wednesday I will put down a break down of the NFL/NCAA seasons that have sadly concluded until September.
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13144-Sheffield-Wednesday-v-Blackpool.htm)
Southampton v Millwall Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13145-Southampton-v-Millwall.htm)
Middlesbrough v Sunderland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13147-Middlesbrough-v-Sunderland.htm)
MY PICKS: Sheffield Wednesday-Blackpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton-Blackpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sunderland @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)
I will get through a few observations of the last week in football tomorrow, and on Wednesday I will put down a break down of the NFL/NCAA seasons that have sadly concluded until September.
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13144-Sheffield-Wednesday-v-Blackpool.htm)
Southampton v Millwall Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13145-Southampton-v-Millwall.htm)
Middlesbrough v Sunderland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13147-Middlesbrough-v-Sunderland.htm)
MY PICKS: Sheffield Wednesday-Blackpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton-Blackpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sunderland @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)
NBA February Picks
January ended on a bad note, but I am hoping this lockout shortened season will start having a little more structure to it and the surprises are not so frequent in the final months of the season.
The February Picks will be placed on this thread and I will update Twitter whenever I make any picks, although I don't usually make them every day.
Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13143-Utah-Jazz-at-New-York-Knicks.htm) Since writing this preview and making the pick, news has been confirmed that Amare Stoudemire's older brother has sadly passed away in a car accident earlier today and the All-Star has left the team to be with his family... Spread has come down since news broke so bear that in mind
February 7th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13146-Oklahoma-City-at-Golden-State.htm)
February 8th
LA Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13150-LA-Clippers-at-Cleveland-Cavaliers.htm)
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13151-Miami-Heat-at-Orlando-Magic.htm)
February 12th
LA Lakers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I am going to take the road team, despite this being the end of their 6 game road trip, to come through and win this game for the following reasons:
First, the Lakers have dominated Toronto in recent seasons and I still think they have the better depth as the Raptors are missing Andrea Bargnani.
Second, there might be a bit of pressure on the Raptors to follow up their impressive win over Boston from a couple of nights ago. That is backed up by their recent 7-15-1 record against the spread in the game following a win.
Third, Toronto are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a win by double-digits.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Again I am going to back the road team in this one to cover for the following reasons:
First, Atlanta seem to under-perform at home and have gone 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games here.
Second, Miami are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against Atlanta and have covered in their last 4 games in Atlanta.
Third, I like backing the Heat in these kind of games as they generally put in a much better effort. They are 2-1 against the spread in games against teams currently in the Eastern Conference top 8 positions as they will look to make statements in them before the Play Offs begin.
February 13th
Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick: I am going to take the Philadelphia 76ers to cover the big spread tonight for the following reasons:
First, Charlotte are really struggling with the ball in their hands and now face one of the tougher Defenses in the NBA coached by Doug Collins.
Second, Philadelphia are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games when they are favoured by more than 8 points to win. They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games being favoured by at least double-digits.
Third, the 76ers are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 trips to Charlotte and they have already beaten the Bobcats by 17 at home this season.
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I would not normally back Miami in the second of back to back nights play, especially considering they have another big showdown at Indiana tomorrow night during this road trip, but there are enough reasons for me to back them again tonight:
First, revenge is definitely in the minds of the Heat after being beaten twice already this season by Milwaukee, and the starters had plenty of rest last night in the blowout of Atlanta.
Second, Miami were beaten here 12 days ago, but they had won on their 3 previous visits to this Arena and will want to prove that there is no team in the Eastern Conference that can slow them down.
Third, Miami are 16-4 straight up against Eastern Conference opponents this season... They have beaten Atlanta twice since losing one of those games to them, and now will look to get back on track with two defeats coming to Milwaukee.
February 14th
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I'll admit it, as a New York Knick fan I am completely suffering from Lin-Sanity over the last week or so and I like their chances of continuing their run of form tonight in Canada for the following reasons:
First, Amare Stoudemire is back tonight after leaving the team to be with his family. He is going to be over the moon to be playing with someone like Jeremy Lin who will make sure Stoudemire gets at least 20 points on the board tonight. I think the return of Stoudemire makes the Knicks that much better.
Second, the road team is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series between these teams and the Knicks should be focused after being beaten in the Garden last month by Toronto.
Third, the Knicks have been a covering machine over the last couple of weeks, covering the last 8 games they have played.
San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I am also going to back the road team in this game to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, San Antonio have really pulled their socks up on the road in recent games, winning their last 3 to improve to 6-8 on the road. They have also covered the spread in their last 8 games overall.
Second, the return of Manu Ginobili is a huge boost to the team on this road trip and will help give them a little more depth on their rotation.
Third, San Antonio have won 4 of their last 5 games by double-digits and that would be enough to cover the spread here.
February 21st
Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13256-Sacramento-Kings-at-Miami-Heat.htm)
February 23rd
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Pick: I am taking the Miami Heat to continue their run of double-digits wins for the following reasons:
First, the Heat have got to be a little mad that they are almost an after-thought in the last couple of weeks despite being in fantastic form and you just know LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will want to make a statement.
Second, the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they create a lot of turnovers, the exact issue that Jeremy Lin has struggled with so far in his short time starting for the Knicks.
Third, the Heat are crushing teams at the moment and I think they are going to put the pounding on the Knicks before the All-Star break as a marker for the rest of the season.
LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I am going to back the Oklahoma City Thunder to confirm why they are the favourites to win the Western Conference this season:
First, I think the Thunder are ready to proclaim themselves the best team in this Conference and I think they are younger and with a much deeper rotation than the Lakers.
Second, the Lakers are just 1-1-4 against the spread in their last 6 visits to Oklahoma City and the Thunder are much better team now.
Third, the Lakers have shown their age a little bit this season, going 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games when playing on back to back nights.
Fourth, the Lakers had a big emotional win at Dallas last night and they may struggle to get that sort of effort on two nights in a row against an opponent that can score a lot of points.
February 29th
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards Pick: I am playing the Over 192.5 Total Points in this game between two teams that have combined for more than this target in their last 4 meetings here. There is the concern that the Wizards may struggle emotionally having lost a close one at Milwaukee last night, but that was the fourth time in their last six games that they have both scored and allowed at least 100 points.
The Magic will need to be on with their three point shooting as that either makes or breaks their games, but I think together the teams can reach this target.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I am going to take the Detroit Pistons to cover tonight despite their blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers here last night.
However, they are playing a really bad Charlotte team that they demolished on the road in early January, and I am putting the Pistons defeat down to just a bad day in the office yesterday as they had been playing a lot better in recent games and may just have been cooled down by the All-Star break.
The Pistons are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against Charlotte and I will look for them to improve that here.
MY PICKS: 06/02 New York Knicks - 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
07/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/02 LA Clippers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/02 Miami Heat - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/02 LA Lakers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/02 Miami Heat - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/02 Philadelphia 76ers - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/02 Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
14/02 New York Knicks - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
14/02 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/02 Miami Heat - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/02 Miami Heat - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
29/02 Washington Wizards-Orlando Magic Over 192.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
29/02 Detroit Pistons - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
February Update: 8-7, + 1.02 Units
The February Picks will be placed on this thread and I will update Twitter whenever I make any picks, although I don't usually make them every day.
Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13143-Utah-Jazz-at-New-York-Knicks.htm) Since writing this preview and making the pick, news has been confirmed that Amare Stoudemire's older brother has sadly passed away in a car accident earlier today and the All-Star has left the team to be with his family... Spread has come down since news broke so bear that in mind
February 7th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13146-Oklahoma-City-at-Golden-State.htm)
February 8th
LA Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13150-LA-Clippers-at-Cleveland-Cavaliers.htm)
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13151-Miami-Heat-at-Orlando-Magic.htm)
February 12th
LA Lakers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I am going to take the road team, despite this being the end of their 6 game road trip, to come through and win this game for the following reasons:
First, the Lakers have dominated Toronto in recent seasons and I still think they have the better depth as the Raptors are missing Andrea Bargnani.
Second, there might be a bit of pressure on the Raptors to follow up their impressive win over Boston from a couple of nights ago. That is backed up by their recent 7-15-1 record against the spread in the game following a win.
Third, Toronto are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a win by double-digits.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Again I am going to back the road team in this one to cover for the following reasons:
First, Atlanta seem to under-perform at home and have gone 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games here.
Second, Miami are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against Atlanta and have covered in their last 4 games in Atlanta.
Third, I like backing the Heat in these kind of games as they generally put in a much better effort. They are 2-1 against the spread in games against teams currently in the Eastern Conference top 8 positions as they will look to make statements in them before the Play Offs begin.
February 13th
Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick: I am going to take the Philadelphia 76ers to cover the big spread tonight for the following reasons:
First, Charlotte are really struggling with the ball in their hands and now face one of the tougher Defenses in the NBA coached by Doug Collins.
Second, Philadelphia are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games when they are favoured by more than 8 points to win. They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games being favoured by at least double-digits.
Third, the 76ers are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 trips to Charlotte and they have already beaten the Bobcats by 17 at home this season.
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I would not normally back Miami in the second of back to back nights play, especially considering they have another big showdown at Indiana tomorrow night during this road trip, but there are enough reasons for me to back them again tonight:
First, revenge is definitely in the minds of the Heat after being beaten twice already this season by Milwaukee, and the starters had plenty of rest last night in the blowout of Atlanta.
Second, Miami were beaten here 12 days ago, but they had won on their 3 previous visits to this Arena and will want to prove that there is no team in the Eastern Conference that can slow them down.
Third, Miami are 16-4 straight up against Eastern Conference opponents this season... They have beaten Atlanta twice since losing one of those games to them, and now will look to get back on track with two defeats coming to Milwaukee.
February 14th
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I'll admit it, as a New York Knick fan I am completely suffering from Lin-Sanity over the last week or so and I like their chances of continuing their run of form tonight in Canada for the following reasons:
First, Amare Stoudemire is back tonight after leaving the team to be with his family. He is going to be over the moon to be playing with someone like Jeremy Lin who will make sure Stoudemire gets at least 20 points on the board tonight. I think the return of Stoudemire makes the Knicks that much better.
Second, the road team is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series between these teams and the Knicks should be focused after being beaten in the Garden last month by Toronto.
Third, the Knicks have been a covering machine over the last couple of weeks, covering the last 8 games they have played.
San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I am also going to back the road team in this game to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, San Antonio have really pulled their socks up on the road in recent games, winning their last 3 to improve to 6-8 on the road. They have also covered the spread in their last 8 games overall.
Second, the return of Manu Ginobili is a huge boost to the team on this road trip and will help give them a little more depth on their rotation.
Third, San Antonio have won 4 of their last 5 games by double-digits and that would be enough to cover the spread here.
February 21st
Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13256-Sacramento-Kings-at-Miami-Heat.htm)
February 23rd
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Pick: I am taking the Miami Heat to continue their run of double-digits wins for the following reasons:
First, the Heat have got to be a little mad that they are almost an after-thought in the last couple of weeks despite being in fantastic form and you just know LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will want to make a statement.
Second, the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they create a lot of turnovers, the exact issue that Jeremy Lin has struggled with so far in his short time starting for the Knicks.
Third, the Heat are crushing teams at the moment and I think they are going to put the pounding on the Knicks before the All-Star break as a marker for the rest of the season.
LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I am going to back the Oklahoma City Thunder to confirm why they are the favourites to win the Western Conference this season:
First, I think the Thunder are ready to proclaim themselves the best team in this Conference and I think they are younger and with a much deeper rotation than the Lakers.
Second, the Lakers are just 1-1-4 against the spread in their last 6 visits to Oklahoma City and the Thunder are much better team now.
Third, the Lakers have shown their age a little bit this season, going 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games when playing on back to back nights.
Fourth, the Lakers had a big emotional win at Dallas last night and they may struggle to get that sort of effort on two nights in a row against an opponent that can score a lot of points.
February 29th
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards Pick: I am playing the Over 192.5 Total Points in this game between two teams that have combined for more than this target in their last 4 meetings here. There is the concern that the Wizards may struggle emotionally having lost a close one at Milwaukee last night, but that was the fourth time in their last six games that they have both scored and allowed at least 100 points.
The Magic will need to be on with their three point shooting as that either makes or breaks their games, but I think together the teams can reach this target.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I am going to take the Detroit Pistons to cover tonight despite their blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers here last night.
However, they are playing a really bad Charlotte team that they demolished on the road in early January, and I am putting the Pistons defeat down to just a bad day in the office yesterday as they had been playing a lot better in recent games and may just have been cooled down by the All-Star break.
The Pistons are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against Charlotte and I will look for them to improve that here.
MY PICKS: 06/02 New York Knicks - 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
07/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/02 LA Clippers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/02 Miami Heat - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/02 LA Lakers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/02 Miami Heat - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/02 Philadelphia 76ers - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/02 Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
14/02 New York Knicks - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
14/02 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/02 Miami Heat - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/02 Miami Heat - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
29/02 Washington Wizards-Orlando Magic Over 192.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
29/02 Detroit Pistons - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
February Update: 8-7, + 1.02 Units
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