Tennis Picks 2026 (Monday 9th February)

Last week was not the most convincing for the Tennis Picks, but a new set of tournaments offers an opportunity to bounce back.

There were a number of 250 events taking place last week alongside the WTA 500 event in Abu Dhabi, but three big tournaments are set to be played over the coming days.

The WTA Doha event is the top one as an 1000 event with some of the very best players on the Tour involved, including new Australian Open Champion Elena Rybakina.

On the ATP side, tournaments in Rotterdam and Dallas are 500 level events, while the Golden Swing begins in South America.

So while last week was a relatively quiet one for the Picks after the conclusion of the Australian Open, this week should be busier, which means considerable work to do in order to get back to putting some solid returns on the board.

Monday is usually a quiet day at most tournaments, especially the start of those tournaments, but the Middle East swing means those events begin on Sunday and so there is plenty of tennis scheduled in Doha.

Any selections from Buenos Aires from the Monday schedule will be added to this thread.

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: The Australian Open is now in the history books and the WTA Tour is swinging through the Middle East with back to back 1000 events.

The Second Round is where the majority of the top names enter the tournament in Doha and Amanda Anisimova is going into the event as the Number 3 Seed.

Her head to head with Karolina Pliskova has to be a concern with the veteran winning five of the six previous matches on the Tour, although it has been over two and a half years since they last played one another. That was on the hard courts in Canada and Karolina Pliskova only dropped two games, while all of those previous matches have been on this surface, which has to give Pliskova a huge boost.

Of course it should be noted that Karolina Pliskova was the higher Seeded player in all of those previous matches and was in the top 15 of the World Rankings in all of those.

Things have changed in February 2026 with Karolina Pliskova making her way back up the World Rankings having missed much of 2025 through injury and she is the World Number 416. An early loss in Cluj will have dented some of the confidence that was earned by reaching the Australian Open Third Round, but Pliskova was a strong winner in the First Round in Doha and the serve continues to be a big weapon.

It should be a positive for her in this Second Round match against an aggressive player in Amanda Anisimova, but one who has yet to really get on top of return games as much a World Number 4 may expect.

However, that return number has improved when Amanda Anisimova has played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 50 on hard courts over the last twelve months. She has been able to back up her improvement by winning twenty-one out of twenty-five matches in that spot, while the American has also been able to back up her powerful first serve very efficiently.

The performances over the last month have given Karolina Pliskova some confidence, but she was beaten pretty handily by Madison Keys in Melbourne.

Madison Keys is the highest Ranked player Pliskova has played since she returned to the Tour at the end of last year and the other matches have been against players who have not been Ranked above Number 59. Confidence and having plenty of experience taking on some of the stronger players on the Tour will give Karolina Pliskova enough to carry her onto the court, but Amanda Anisimova may prove to be a little too tough and can earn the Breaks of serve that can see her move through to the Third Round.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Magda Linette: Reaching the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam would be seen as a positive for most 18 year olds, but that is not the case for the current World Number 7.

After reaching the Quarter Final in Brisbane and then winning the title in Auckland, Mirra Andreeva looked to have plenty of momentum to take into the first Grand Slam of the season. She made a decent enough start to the event, but the performance in the Fourth Round defeat to Elina Svitolina will have really been one that disappointed her and her team and Andreeva will be looking to bounce back in Doha and Dubai over the next couple of weeks.

Big Ranking points are on offer in those events, but looking too far ahead would be a mistake and Mirra Andreeva will be aware of the threat this opponent poses.

Magda Linette has started the season with a 5-2 record and she did upset Emma Navarro at the Australian Open, although the latter has been in poor form for several months. The two defeats were both in one-sided contests, including a crushing loss at the hands of Karolina Muchova in Melbourne, while Magda Linette has mainly feasted on beating those further down the World Rankings.

She battled past Sonay Kartal in the First Round in Doha, but Linette is going to have to be a lot better if she is going to upset one of the top Seeds in the tournament.

With Aryna Sabalenka missing, Mirra Andreeva has to be amongst the favourites to win the title in either Doha or Dubai, and her overall numbers remain very impressive.

The first serve continues to be an improving weapon for the young player and Mirra Andreeva can be a very dangerous returner when at her best.

The expectation is that Andreeva is going to be able to attack Magda Linette in plenty of the games played on the Linette serve, and that should keep the scoreboard pressure on the lower Ranked player.

Of course it has to be respected that Magda Linette has played a match here meaning having some experience of the conditions, while Mirra Andreeva is playing her first match two weeks. This could mean needing a bit more time to find her feet, but the World Number 7 should have a considerable edge on the serve and that has been the case in the three previous matches on the Tour.

They have not faced one another since the latter part of the 2024 season, but Mirra Andreeva is improved since that match in Beijing which she dominated and she can move through the gears to produce something like a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win in the Second Round here.

Last year Mirra Andreeva was beaten in the Third Round in Doha before winning the title in Dubai and she can make a positive start to her return to the Middle East.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Brandon Nakashima - 3.5 Games @ 2.20 William Hill (1 Unit)

Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 38-27, + 13.21 Units (131 Units Staked, + 10.08% Yield)

NFL Super Bowl LIX Pick 2025 (Sunday 9th February)

A seven month wait for the next NFL game will begin on Sunday evening when Super Bowl LIX concludes the 2024 season.

Back in Week 2 of the season my early thoughts on the year had identified the Kansas City Chiefs as the favourites and the Philadelphia Eagles as a team that could have enough improvement to turn things around after the poor end to the 2023 season and with Head Coach Nick Sirianni barely clinging onto his role.

It has proven to be the right decision, even if Sirianni and the fans were not always reading from the same page during the season and a repeat of Super Bowl LVII looks a very strong way to end the season.

If the game is anything like that one two years ago, this could be a brilliant Super Bowl in New Orleans.

The NFL might not have any competitive action until early September following the Super Bowl, but this is not a sport that will be quiet over those months with teams preparing for the 2025 season.

Free Agency and the Draft will draw plenty of attention, while it has already been a big week for international fans of the NFL after news was announced that Melbourne, Madrid and Dublin will be hosting games featuring Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers as designated home teams. The fans in Australia will have to wait until 2026, but Madrid and Dublin join the international party later in the year.

London will still have three games and Berlin will host one too as the NFL continues to expand the boundaries of the sport and there could yet be further additions to the international schedule.

Another NFL season is going to finish with a positive return for the Picks on these pages and there can never be any complaints about that.

The Playoff results have been mixed, but the strong Wild Card Round has been the key to a positive post-season run too with just one more Pick to be made in the 2025 season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) edged out the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) thanks to a Field Goal being scored with just eight seconds left in Super Bowl LVII.

There would have been a lot of regret on the Philadelphia sideline considering they had secured many more yards than the Kansas City Chiefs in the game and the Eagles were looking the stronger team as the game was ticking down in the Fourth Quarter.

Last season was a disappointing one for the Eagles, while the Kansas City Chiefs ended up repeating, but the two best teams in the NFL meet again in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans and there is plenty on the line for both.

For a team that has won seventeen games, there are still one or two questions about the Kansas City Chiefs that perhaps leads to some doubting their ability to become the first team to win three straight Championships in the Super Bowl era. It would be a remarkable achievement, but there is plenty of reason to think that the Philadelphia Eagles are the toughest team they could have faced in the Super Bowl.

Doubting Patrick Mahomes would be a big mistake and it would be incredible if the Eagles are underestimating this Kansas City Quarter Back.

When Kansas City have the ball, the pressure may be on Patrick Mahomes to make the plays for his team, and he has shown in the post-season that he is capable of tucking the ball and looking to keep the Chiefs in front of the chains.

Offensively the Chiefs do not match up as they would like with the Philadelphia Eagles- while recent opponents have had some success running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line, the Kansas City Chiefs have not found sustained success on the ground and instead it may be the odd look that helps get someone loose.

It is unlikely to be a traditional running game and so Patrick Mahomes is going to be asked to make plays through the air against one of the stronger Secondaries in the NFL this season.

Again, it is simply not an option to doubt Mahomes and his ability to attack the Secondary with some success and Kansas City have got some key Receivers back into action over the last month, which will help. Patrick Mahomes is capable of making the clutch throw and the Kansas City Chiefs seem to find a way to put a scoring drive together when they really need to do that, while Head Coach Andy Reid will have prepared to find a way to exploit gaps in the Philadelphia Secondary.

The Patrick Mahomes record against Vic Fangio cannot be ignored either, but there still has to be a feeling inside the Eagles camp that they can at least stall some drives and give the Offensive unit every chance of winning this game.

It is the Philadelphia Offensive Line and Saquon Barkley that are going to be all important in this game- you know the Eagles will go as far as the Offensive Line will carry them, especially with a Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and his ability to make plays with his legs too, but it is also key to draw out drives and wear down the Kansas City Chiefs up front, and leave Patrick Mahomes stewing on the sidelines while waiting his turn.

Over the season, Kansas City's Defensive Line have played pretty well, but there have been signs of some weakness during this post-season run.

Joe Mixon and James Cook have had big games against the Chiefs in the Playoffs and now they have to deal with Saquon Barkley and this powerful Eagles Offensive Line. There has been no doubt about how strong Philadelphia have been when it comes to punishing teams on the ground and Barkley could have yet another big performance to round out what has been a very special first year with the Eagles.

Those two Running Backs had big games, but so did CJ Stroud and Josh Allen as Quarter Backs very comfortable running with the ball and Jalen Hurts can follow suit here.

It could be very important for Jalen Hurts to be given some time when he does choose to target his big name Receivers down the field, especially against this Chiefs Secondary, and the Quarter Back may just help Philadelphia earn their revenge.

Without the same kind of running support, Patrick Mahomes could find himself under siege at times by a very strong and effective Philadelphia pass rush and the narrow lean is with the Eagles to earn revenge.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never an easy decision and he has been very good in the Playoffs, while also being a player that has a very strong covering record when the Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with a spread that covers them between a three point underdog or favourite.

The Chiefs are going for an unprecedented three-peat in the NFL, but it should be noted that the last two Super Bowl wins have both been as the narrow underdog and this time they are favoured. Over recent seasons, the underdog has actually been the right play when it comes to the spread and those two Kansas City wins have pushed the underdog to 17-6 against the spread in the last twenty-three Super Bowls played.

You may believe that being a higher Seed heading into the Super Bowl or having the superior regular season record is important, but those teams have actually been on the wrong end of the final Super Bowl score far too often. The higher Seed is now 2-16-2 against the spread over the last twenty-seven years (equal Seeds make up the remainder), while the team with the better regular season record is 1-16 against the spread in the last seventeen Super Bowls when that applies.

This is going to be close and it would not be a surprise if it comes down to another late Field Goal kick, but the Philadelphia Eagles might have been preparing to beat the Kansas City Chiefs ever since losing the Super Bowl two years ago. They look to match up well with the Chiefs on both sides of the ball and the Eagles Offensive Line can lead the NFC team to a second Super Bowl Championship in the history of the franchise.

MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.15 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7.5% Yield)

Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.75 Units

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 9th February)

The tennis week has been a mixed one, but there is still an opportunity to finish off with a strong run.

That has to be the aim when the Quarter Finals are played on Friday at the six tournaments being played on both the ATP and WTA Tour.

While it has been a winning week so far, it has not quite been as strong as I would have liked and so there is work to do over this weekend.

Ons Jabeur - 2.5 games v Beatriz Haddad Maia: Winning big matches against Ons Jabeur is never going to be easy for players on the Tour, but the confidence will be behind Beatriz Haddad Maia who did just that at the French Open last year.

The Quarter Final win was the first time the Brazilian had beaten Ons Jabeur and she has played a lot more tennis than the latter this season.

It should mean Beatriz Haddad Maia is in confident mood, even if her Second Round match took almost four hours to be completed. She ultimately rolled through the final set, but there was plenty of emotional and physical energy invested into the win over Magda Linette and Haddad Maia will be hoping she has recovered.

Beatriz Haddad Maia has shown she can find the energy needed even after putting in such a strong effort, but Ons Jabeur was an impressive Second Round winner and looked to be in decent form.

Motivation should be easy to find during this swing through the Middle East and Ons Jabeur will feel she should have beaten Haddad Maia in that Quarter Final loss at the French Open. Winning a Grand Slam is the biggest ambition for Jabeur this season, but she should have enough focus to wear down an opponent that has to have some fatigue issues.

Serving well and getting plenty of first serves in play will be key for the World Number 6 and doing that should help her cover this spread.

Tommy Paul - 2.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: There has been a tournament being played on the hard courts in Dallas and in general the early Rounds have offered unappealing angles.

The Quarter Finals should change that and Tommy Paul has the qualities to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, who has benefited from fine margins landing his way.

No one should dismiss the chances of the German who has won a Challenger title on the hard courts last month and, ultimately, has won two matches to progress through the Dallas Open into this Quarter Final match.

However, Koepfer has lost his last five matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and his numbers over the last twelve months when coming up against some of the best players on the Tour have been disappointing. The lefty serve can be a strength, but Dominik Koepfer has overachieved this week and a player like Tommy Paul should be capable of breaking down that part of his game.

It should mean pressure on the Koepfer return, but he has broken in just 12% of return games played on the hard courts when facing up to top 50 Ranked opponents.

Ben Shelton - 2.5 games v Jordan Thompson: At his best, Jordan Thompson has a serve that can be very dangerous and that allows the Australian to allow scoreboard pressure to build up on his opponents.

He pushed Stefanos Tsitsipas to four sets at the Australian Open, while Jordan Thompson made some headlines by beating Rafael Nadal on his way to the Semi Final in Brisbane.

You have to respect that and his two wins at the Dallas Open will only have increased the confidence, even if those have come against the World Number 829 and 174.

There is a big step up to facing Ben Shelton, who has had a relatively disappointing opening six weeks of the 2024 season.

That is largely compared to the kind of start Shelton would have expected from himself, but he was a clear winner in the Second Round and being back on home soil will certainly inspire the American. Ben Shelton has a massive serve, but he has also found a bit more out of his return game early in the season and that will be encouraging for him.

In two previous matches against Jordan Thompson, Ben Shelton has had a clear edge with holds in 89% of his service games played compared with the Australian's 76% mark. Ben Shelton did have to fight back from dropping the first set when these two met in Tokyo at the end of October, but he was clearly the stronger player on the day and created 11 Break Points compared with just 2 for Jordan Thompson and the home fans can drive Shelton forward for a strong win.

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 games v Marcos Giron: There was a push into the top 10 of the World Rankings for the first time in June 2023, but it has been a difficult twelve months for Frances Tiafoe.

He looked to have finally figured out how to manage the consistency needed on the Tour, but some of those efforts look to have been forgotten and the World Number 14 has just slipped.

The numbers had improved, but those have not hit the levels of twelve months ago and it has been a disappointing start to 2024.

A win over Alex Michelsen looks solid, but backing that up is the key for Tiafoe when taking on compatriot Marcos Giron.

He was another who made a slow start to 2024, but two strong wins in Dallas will make Marcos Giron feel much better about his tennis. This is another step up in terms of level of opponent, but Giron has to believe he can at least try and exert some pressure with his serve.

Marcos Giron has just gotten a bit more out of his return game too compared with Frances Tiafoe and that may be key, although the latter has the mental edge having won the last three pro meetings between these two Americans.

The win at the US Open in 2022 was a competitive one for Frances Tiafoe, but he did crush Marcos Giron at Indian Wells last year. That will help a player who is perhaps not feeling at his very best and Tiafoe can find a way to win and cover on his way to a Semi Final appearance.

MY PICKS: Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.10 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (February 9th)

It was a shame that Anett Kontaveit was not able to finish her match against Shelby Rogers when it looked like the Tennis Picks were going to have a clean sweep of winners on Wednesday.

The tournament in Abu Dhabi is where the focus will be again for the Picks as the Second Round is completed in the sole 500 event of the week.

Now the numbers are in a positive place for the week, I am looking for a strong final four days in a bid to keep the winning momentum going.

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The top of the WTA Tour is open enough for a number of players to really believe they can win a Grand Slam title in the coming years.

Without a dominant Champion, anyone playing on the Tour can get hot enough over a two week spell and run through a draw and there have been a number of surprising Champions crowned in recent years. Having that in mind, there is little doubt that Beatriz Haddad Maia will have been massively disappointed with her First Round upset loss at the Australian Open and especially when you consider the improvements the Brazilian has made on the Tour over the last eighteen months.

She did need three sets to win her First Round match in Abu Dhabi, but Beatriz Haddad Maia will feel better for the victory having lost her last two matches on the Tour. The lefty had a decent January before the loss in Melbourne and her game continues to operate effectively on the hard courts.

My numbers had her down as a stronger favourite than the layers when she is set to meet Yulia Putintseva in the Second Round on Thursday, although I have a healthy respect for the capabilities of the lower Ranked player. While not being in possession of any great shot, Putintseva can get around the court and test players and their ability to find the big shots consistently, while the return is a strength of her tennis.

It needs to be with a vulnerable serve and Yulia Putintseva deserves more respect having won three matches in Abu Dhabi having fought through the Qualifiers. The win over Bianca Andreescu in the First Round is a good one, but it has been tougher going in the early part of 2023 when Yulia Putintseva has been pitting against top 100 Ranked opponents.

Yulia Putintseva has suffered particular hardship when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and she has found her second serve and return game has not been able to stand up against the best players on the Tour. The Kazakhstani player has lost two matches to those top 20 players just last month and both were in pretty routine fashion.

Beatriz Haddad Maia can serve effectively with the lefty side making things tougher for the return player and I do think she will be able to get on top of enough return games to win this match and cover the handicap line set.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: It will be interesting to see how Elena Rybakina handles the disappointment of coming within one match of becoming a multiple time Grand Slam Champion. At least the Kazakhstan Number 1 has earned her rightful place within the top 10 of the World Rankings and Elena Rybakina would be considerably higher if her Wimbledon Ranking points had not been scrapped by the WTA Tour.

She makes her return in Abu Dhabi where some of the top players on the Tour have come together to try and win a big title in what is a couple of big months of hard court tennis. The performance in Melbourne shows that Elena Rybakina is a threat at every Grand Slam that will be played, even on the clay courts where some would feel her power is perhaps not as effective as on the faster surfaces.

Elena Rybakina has shown she is a player that can deal with the moment effectively and I do think the time off would have done her good.

However, she will also be under a different pressure which comes with the increased expectations that her run in Melbourne would have generated. Despite being the Wimbledon Champion, Rybakina has not been under the same spotlight as she may experience now and the first match following the Australian Open is not an easy one.

Karolina Pliskova did not have the best 2022 with injury and inconsistent form and her own hopes of winning a Grand Slam title may have faded, but the Czech player did reach the Australian Open Quarter Final last month. A strong win in the First Round in Abu Dhabi shows she has turned the page from Melbourne and Karolina Pliskova has plenty of power and a solid serve that can put opponents under pressure.

A problem has been trying to get more out of her return and I do think that is where Elena Rybakina will hold a significant edge over Karolina Pliskova in this big Second Round match.

My feeling is that Karolina Pliskova is not the force she once was and it is hard to ignore the fact that she has lost her last four hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents. Those four losses have all been in relatively straight-forward manner, including both played last month when Karolina Pliskova really struggled on the serve and only managed to win 36% of return points played.

I think that could show up in this Second Round match once Elena Rybakina gets herself comfortable on the court- the first set should be competitive, but the Wimbledon Champion has the capability to build pressure with her own serve and aggressive returns can pay off the longer the match goes.

It was the case when these two met in October on the hard courts of Guadalajara as Elena Rybakina used a first set tie-breaker win to move through the second set relatively comfortably. She won 41% of return points played compared with Karolina Pliskova's 32% mark on that day and I will look for the top ten Ranked player to come through with a good win in this Second Round match in Abu Dhabi.

MY PICKS: Beatriz Haddad Maia - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.70 Units (10 Units Staked, + 7% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2021 (February 9th)

The first day at the Australian Open 2021 tournament got underway on Monday and for the main part it was dominated by the big names who all managed to work their way into the Second Round.

Unsurprisingly there were some long matches that ebbed and flowed, but most fans will have been happy to see some live, competitive Tennis and the hope is that it will be the start of a very strong fortnight which leads into a strong year on the Tour.

Not everyone was happy- Benoit Paire was beaten in the First Round and decided he would tell the press that the Australian Open is a 'shit' tournament and he basically only played for the money on offer. His complaints largely revolved around the quarantine issues that continue to cause controversy even though I personally can't understand why the players felt they were not informed about the procedures involved in travelling to Australia.

I mean I don't play and I know they have quarantine in place and certainly would have been aware of the risks that it could be a much harder one if there was a positive test on my transport. It sounds like sour grapes to me and Paire isn't going to be going hungry if he decided he would stay in Europe and get ready for the tournaments that are scheduled to be played there in the coming weeks leading into the clay court season which is still set to begin in April.

Ultimately he wasn't forced to travel to the event (with all the paid expenses that Tennis Australia provide for the players) and if he really feels so strongly about the event he shouldn't go back in the years ahead.

The ebbs and flows were not only seen on the court on Monday, but my Day 1 Picks were on a rollercoaster ride, or so it felt. Eventually I came down on the right side, but I would like to see more consistency going forward, even if I am fully aware of how these Grand Slam tournaments can go when making selections every day.

You can also read my Australian Open Tennis Picks with the bottom half of the Men's draw and the top half of the Women's draw getting underway on Tuesday. You can read those here.

Elise Mertens - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: It has been two years since Elise Mertens last won a title on the WTA Tour and winning an event in the warm up to the Australian Open will give the Belgian player some confidence to take into the tournament. She is still Ranked inside the top 20, but Elise Mertens needs to find a bit more consistency in her performances against the very best players if she is going to crack the top 10 for the first time.

She was a surprising Semi Finalist at the Australian Open in 2018, but Elise Mertens has reached the Third Round and Fourth Round in the two years since then. The Belgian has twice reached the Quarter Final at the US Open in that time, but it has become a feature of the Mertens performances at the Grand Slam level that she has been strong early and then struggled as soon as the competition ramps up.

Realistically it would take an upset for Mertens to be beaten before the Third Round at any Slam, especially from her Seeding spot. The early wins have tended to come with relative ease for Elise Mertens and she has a perfect 16-0 record in hard court Grand Slam matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 since January 2018.

The serve can sometimes be a problem for Elise Mertens, but in those matches she has found herself playing much better behind that shot as overmatched opponents struggle to breakthrough the Belgian's defences. She has also won 52% of points played against the serve and it will be a big challenge for Leylah Fernandez despite the 18 year old being close to her best career World Ranking and looking like a big talent on the Tour.

Leylah Fernandez is a strong return player which will have her believing she can at least give her higher Ranked player something to think about, but the serve is still developing. It makes it entirely possible that she will be put under consistent pressure by someone who returns as well as Mertens can and this is a player that won't give a lot away.

It also has to be remembered that Fernandez is still a developing player on the Tour and in her career matches against top 20 players on the hard courts, it has to be noted that the return has not been as effective as the Canadian would like. In those three previous matches, Fernandez has won just 33% of the return points played and I think this could be a match which proves to be a learning experience for the younger player.

Elise Mertens can be hard to trust, but she has regularly dominated those players she should and I think she will have every chance of covering this big mark.

Heather Watson v Kristyna Pliskova: For the second year in a row Heather Watson and Kristyna Pliskova are meeting in the First Round at the Australian Open and I think there is every chance for the British player to frank the win she earned a little under thirteen months ago.

Both players will be aware that their own form has been a little sketchy and the tough quarantine rules will have made it difficult for them to really get the kind of practice time they would have liked. The two players were beaten in their first matches in the warm up events played over the last week which does make it hard to really know what kind of form they are in, but Watson will feel she does have the edge in this First Round match.

Last season Heather Watson was able to win a title on the hard courts and she has at least had one win and a competitive loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova under her belt before heading to Melbourne. It is certainly going to mean having a bit more confidence than Kristyna Pliskova who has lost her last seven hard court matches played over the last twelve months and the numbers have been pretty disappointing too.

The Czech player has not really come close to the kind of successes twin sister Karolina has had on the Tour, but her World Ranking has slipped to Number 70 behind the poor form she has been in. Kristyna Pliskova does have a good serve which makes her dangerous, but her return game has simply not developed to the level it should have and I think that gives Heather Watson the edge in this match as she looks to move into a 3-1 head to head lead over this opponent.

Even during her losing run on the hard courts, you couldn't say Pliskova has just been unfortunate with her draw and that has to be a concern for her.

And in the head to head with Heather Watson it is clear that the British player has been able to match the service numbers that Pliskova has been able to produce, but the superior returning has proved to be a key for her. Even in the defeat Heather Watson will feel she was a little unlucky and the match here in Australia last year saw her deserve to beat Pliskova even if it took three sets to get the job done.

There is no doubt that Heather Watson has not achieved what she may have thought she could on the pro Tour, but she is a solid enough player to get the better of an erratic and out of form Kristyna Pliskova. The return of serve should prove to be key for Watson on the day as she moves into the Second Round at the Australian Open for the third time in five years.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich + 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: A decision was made that the two Semi Final winners would share the title at the Grampians Trophy tournament that was put together as a warm up event for the Australian Open. One of the Champions ended up being Anett Kontaveit and there has been enough to like about her development to believe she can have a big impact at the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season.

The Estonian has only just turned 25 years old and there is time for her to push back towards the top 10 of the WTA Tour, although the depth of talent on this side of the Tennis Tour has certainly gotten deeper in recent times.

Winning a title will help the confidence of a player who had her best Grand Slam result when reaching the Quarter Final of the Australian Open in 2020- however it is somewhat disappointing to think that is the only time Anett Kontaveit has managed to reach the last eight of a Slam despite the obvious talent she possesses.

She has proven to be an effective all-court player and Anett Kontaveit goes into the First Round as a big favourite to see off Aliaksandra Sasnovich, although I think the number of games makes the underdog appealing.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich has been as high as World Number 30, but her current Ranking is down at Number 90, although the numbers suggest she should be moving up from that position over the coming months. The draws will need to be kinder than this one, but Sasnovich won't be intimidated by having to face a player against whom she has a winning record overall and a 4-2 advantage on the hard courts.

The last of those hard court wins came just two years ago at the Australian Open and the Sasnovich serve has been good enough to not only keep her competitive against Anett Kontaveit, but to put those wins on the board.

It can't be ignored that Aliaksandra Sasnovich has a poor record when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last three seasons, but her numbers in those matches in 2020 were encouraging. Even the one-sided loss to Garbine Muguruza this season isn't one to overly concern Sasnovich considering how well Muguruza has been playing, while she does seem to match up well enough with Anett Kontaveit to at least expect this match to be kept close.

In most cases Kontaveit has dominated those players she has met in Grand Slams who have been Ranked outside the top 50 at the time of the match and she has won the last seven matches in that situation. I do think she is most likely going to progress to the Second Round, but I am looking for Aliaksandra Sasnovich to have the right game plan to make this a more competitive match than some may think and taking the games with the underdog looks the right a reasonable selection here.

Shelby Rogers - 5.5 games v Francesca Jones: There is little doubt that Francesca Jones is going to be a real inspiration for people around the world and the attention her first appearance in a Grand Slam draw is generating is for very good reason. On the face of things it may seem strange that a 20 year old from Great Britain who is ranked at Number 245 in the world would be achieving the attention she is, but Francesca Jones has already overcome the odds to simply be playing professional tennis.

If she had listened to the experts, Jones would have put her racquet down a long time ago having been born with a condition which means she is missing fingers and toes on all four hands and feet. The British player needs a specially tailored racquet to play and has had to adjust her style to make up for her situation, but Jones will be seen as a role model to so many that wish to pursue dreams when it seems like those are beyond them.

Winning three Qualifiers has given Francesca Jones her first taste of the main Tour as she is set to play in the First Round at the Australian Open, although her early defeat in her maiden match on the main WTA Tour has underlined how tough it will be to bridge the gap to the next level. She will be playing with a nothing to lose attitude, but Jones has a tough First Round match in front of her in the shape of Shelby Rogers who is comfortably entrenched in the top 100 of the World Rankings.

The American reached the US Open Quarter Final back in September, but Shelby Rogers has not enjoyed much success at the Australian Open which will offer Jones some encouragement. However, Rogers reached the Quarter Final in the warm up event for the Australian Open and was only narrowly beaten by Ashleigh Barty who is amongst the favourites to win the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season.

A big serve will always make it possible for Shelby Rogers to set up a match in her favour and Francesca Jones will have to return better than she did in her relatively straight forward loss to Nadia Podoroska last week. The favourite also looks a little more comfortable dealing with those opponents she should be beating and produced a 7-1 record against players Ranked outside of the top 100 when playing them on a hard court in 2020.

In those matches, Shelby Rogers saw her serve dominate matches and she was then able to do enough on the return of serve to win the majority of them. Her return is one that can be improved, but I think Shelby Rogers will be aided by Francesca Jones who will be learning on the job on Day 2 at the Australian Open.

Francesca Jones did have two solid wins in the Qualifiers for the Australian Open, but this is a big step up for her and I think Shelby Rogers might have too much firepower for a player who will learn a lot from her experiences to open 2021.

Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Kaja Juvan: Any player who has reached the Quarter Final at every Grand Slam has to be respected and Johanna Konta is the top British player going into the Australian Open this year. 2020 was a largely disappointing year for Johanna Konta who did not progress beyond the Second Round in any of the three Grand Slam tournaments played and she was beaten in the First Round both at the French Open and here in Melbourne.

After back to back Semi Final and Quarter Final runs, Johnna Konta has struggled to compete in Melbourne in recent visits despite growing up in Australia until the age of 14. You couldn't really blame the conditions for her early exits, but Konta has been unfortunate with the draws as the last two losses in the Second Round and First Round have come against Garbine Muguruza and Ons Jabeur, two players who are Seeded here this year.

She has admitted she has been fortunate in being able to at least practice while quarantining in Australia on her arrival, but a tight early loss in the warm up events last week means she has just two competitive matches under her belt. That could be an issue as she faces a Qualifier in the First Round, although Qualifying did take place in the Middle East before players headed to Australia once confirming their place in the main draw.

Kaja Juvan looks like a player that will have a decent impact on the Tour in the years ahead, but she is currently Ranked outside the top 100 and is a deserved underdog. Her three Qualifier wins came against players Ranked 163 or lower so this is a big step up, although Juvan has to be respected having taken a set off French Open Champion Iga Swiatek in a losing effort in preparation for the first Grand Slam of the season.

Her numbers on the hard courts in main Tour events have been solid rather than spectacular, but Kaja Juvan will know she will have to be better than that if she is going to beat a player who has multiple Grand Slam Quarter Finals under her belt. The Slovenian is also just 2-7 when playing top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts and Juvan has really struggled with her return in those matches while trying to protect what is a vulnerable serve.

One of the issues Johanna Konta has had is getting more from her return game which would have really helped her when it came down to the business end of big tournaments. The return numbers on the hard courts are not terrible, but there is plenty of scope for improvement.

I don't think that will be a factor in this First Round match as Johanna Konta is likely to get plenty of returns back in play and put some pressure on Kaja Juvan, but the big edge will come behind the World Number 15's serve. Johanna Konta should be able to win enough easy points on the first serve in the expected conditions to at least keep the pressure on her younger opponent and I think it will eventually see the Seed move through with a good win on the board.

Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: You have to think the window for Karolina Pliskova to pick up a maiden Grand Slam title is closing all the time and she had a poor Slam record in 2020. However it is only two years since the big-serving Czech player reached the Semi Final here in Melbourne and I think she should be able to make a strong start to the tournament this year.

There will be some disappointment with the early season form, but everything is put together to prepare for the Australian Open and Pliskova will be happy enough with the draw. In recent years she has dominated those players Ranked outside the top 50 especially on the hard courts, while Karolina Pliskova is 17-1 against them in Grand Slam matches at either the Australian or US Open since 2017.

Unsurprisingly the first serve has set her up in those matches, but Karolina Pliskova's return game is also very strong and that is very much the case compared with her seasonal numbers. She is able to win around 50% of the return points played and that will always give Pliskova a chance to not only win matches, but win without spending too long on court early in a Grand Slam tournament.

This year Karolina Pliskova takes on Jasmine Paolini, an Italian player whose career best World Ranking is just inside the top 100. It is a mark that Paolini is hovering around right now, but her hard court numbers make it hard to believe she can put together enough tennis to earn the upset in this First Round match.

Jasmine Paolini had a couple of decent wins when preparing for this tournament last week, while she pushed Karolina Muchova into a third set in a losing effort too. However Paolini is just 2-10 on the hard courts in her career matches against top 50 Ranked players and her return numbers have really fallen in those matches which is perhaps going to be underlined when facing someone who can serve as well as Karolina Pliskova can.

The Italian's own serve is not really going to be good enough to keep Pliskova at bay either and I think it will lead to the Seed winning in relatively routine matter. My one concern with backing Karolina Pliskova is that she would have covered this mark in just eleven of the eighteen hard court Grand Slam matches played against players outside of the top 50 as she can sometimes lose some focus, but the power should be enough for the Czech player to get this done.

MY PICKS: Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Heather Watson @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Aliaksandra Sasnovich + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens + 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ricardas Berankis - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniel Evans - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kevin Anderson-Matteo Berrettini Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 1.48 Units (22 Units Staked, + 6.73% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (February 8-17)

The English Winter Break is in play for the first time this season and I think it has not gone as well as the Premier League and the top clubs would have hoped.

Teething problems for a new part of the calendar are not that surprising, but you have to think the FA would have realised that placing FA Cup Fourth Round Replays during what should have been the time off was going to be problematic. Some are calling for Replays to be scrapped all together, but I am not sure that is going to be passed by lower League clubs who know the kind of impact this competition gives them from a financial point of view, especially when lucky enough to pair up with a big name.

The Fifth Round Replays are already gone so it wouldn't be a big surprise if further changes are made to the famous old Cup, but something is going to have to be done which could include starting the Premier League one week earlier than normal, or making changes to the League Cup Semi Final and removing the two Legs.

Things could become more problematic in the years ahead if UEFA make changes to their Champions League format as has been long rumoured, while the addition of a third European competition won't be easing what is a congested English calendar already. The potential of the Premier League being cut from 20 to 18 teams can't be ignored either, even though many clubs will rail against that too, and it looks to be some decisions that need to be made.


The Winter Break is here for now in a format where eight of the Premier League clubs will play this weekend and the remaining twelve will play next weekend. It will satisfy the television companies who can broadcast every game, while the majority of teams involved will get their full rest that was promised to them in April 2019.

I will add the remaining Picks from this round of games to this thread next week, but the Fantasy Football deadline is Saturday 8th February which covers two weekends. More on that after the Football Picks are placed below.


Everton v Crystal Palace Pick: The Premier League is going on a Winter Break, but unlike other European Leagues which do the same it means the ten fixtures scheduled in this week will be split over two weeks.

This weekend we have four League games beginning with this one from Goodison Park and both Everton and Crystal Palace will be looking for some key points to get closer to fulfilling their ambitions for the season.

Everton have been in fine form under Carlo Ancelotti and key figures were back last weekend which helped them overcome Watford at Vicarage Road. They have been creating chances galore under the Italian manager and the team would have been flying up the League standings if they had not blown a 2-0 lead over Newcastle United last time out here.

Frustratingly for the home fans and Everton backers they conceded twice within 60 seconds deep into injury time in that game so Crystal Palace will note there are some vulnerabilities which can be exploited. And despite the back to back home League losses, Crystal Palace have remained a stubborn and hard to beat team when they go out on their travels.

Roy Hodgson would likely accept a point from this game, but Everton might have a bit too much in the final third. The improving injury crisis at Crystal Palace makes them more dangerous, but the side have not defended as well as they would have liked and they struggle for goals.

Everton have won their last couple at Goodison Park against Crystal Palace, and I think they can be backed to win this one in a game that features two or more goals shared out.


Brighton v Watford Pick: It might be too early to describe this a 'relegation six pointer', but there is no doubting the importance of this Premier League fixture between Brighton and Watford.

Just 3 points separate Brighton in 15th place and Watford in 19th place so there is no doubt the outcome of the fixture is going to have a big impact in how these teams will go into the remainder of the season.

A Brighton win will certainly make them feel they are well on the way to safety, but a Watford victory drags a number of clubs back towards the relegation fight so there will be plenty of eyes on this one.

Brighton have been playing well, but they have looked very poor defensively which has been exploited by clubs. Conceding three times to both Bournemouth and West Ham United underlines the point, although both were played away from the Amex Stadium.

The one theme that continues to be displayed is that Brighton are likely to concede goals, but they create enough chances to hurt teams too.

This weekend they host a Watford team who might be regretting recent dropped points- Nigel Pearson's men missed a penalty in the goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur and had a 0-1 lead at Aston Villa and 2-0 lead over Everton but lost both of those games.

In the main the manager has to be happy with the reaction of his players to his voice since coming in, but Pearson will also recognise how important those dropped points could be. I don't think he will change his style where Watford have been creating chances and scoring goals, but they have struggled defensively despite having a goalkeeper like Ben Foster between the sticks and like Brighton they look like a team that will score and concede goals.

A draw might not be the worst result for either team in the bigger picture, but I don't think either Graham Potter nor Nigel Pearson would take that before a ball has been kicked. With that in mind I am expecting to see an attacking game and the teams pushing forward which could see them combine for three or more goals.

In recent seasons this has not been a fixture which has been very high-scoring, but Brighton scored three earlier this season and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out here with my expectation being that both score at least once.


Sheffield United v Bournemouth Pick: With the majority of teams in and around them not playing until next weekend, Sheffield United have a chance to really put their credentials for a European berth open for all to see on Sunday.

This weekend they host a Bournemouth team who have won consecutive Premier League games, but Sheffield United have been in fine form themselves and looking to make Bramall Lane a little more difficult to visit.

Chris Wilder has done a fine job at Sheffield United this season, but the manager will be a touch disappointed that they have lost 5 of their 12 League games here. For all the good football that they are capable of playing, Sheffield United can be a little short of goals and will need to improve that if they are going to push on for a European place.

It might be something that needs to be addressed in the summer, but Sheffield United do create chances and they should cause problems for a Bournemouth team who have struggled defensively for much of the season. Eddie Howe's men have relied on some fortune to avoid heavier defeats than they have faced, while Bournemouth have struggled for goals away from the Vitality Stadium which makes it difficult to see them causing an upset here.

Backing Sheffield United at short odds has not been productive this season, but I do think they will be too good for Bournemouth this weekend.

There will likely be enough chances for the home team to win by a good margin too if they continue to play as they have and Bournemouth continue to struggle. Backing The Blades to cut through their opponents and win a game featuring at least two goals is an odds against quote and I think that is worth backing.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: There has clearly been something a little wrong at Manchester City this season as they have struggled for consistency in the final third- some of it is down to poor decision making and some of it is down to poor finishing, but not for the first time Manchester City created some gilt-edged chances in a game they eventually threw away when losing at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.

I would expect the home team to have too much for West Ham United this weekend and bounce back from their disappointing losses to Manchester United and Spurs. They are still creating a bunch of chances and Manchester City are likely to do the same against a West Ham United team who have looked miserable at the back for much of the season.

Even the arrival of David Moyes has not really sparked them as expected and it looks like being another difficult afternoon for the East London club.

West Ham United blew a couple of two goal leads in their draw with Brighton last weekend and the next several weeks could see them cut off inside the bottom three. After this game The Hammers meet Liverpool, Southampton, Arsenal, Wolves, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea and you would not fancy them to take too many points from that run which will increase the pressure on the players.

They have been stubborn opponents for Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in recent seasons in contrast to some home heavy losses West Ham United have taken. David Moyes will have had a week to prepare his players to do the same on Sunday, but Manchester City have to be looking for a reaction and I think they are going to be too strong for the visitors.

It is a big Asian Handicap when you think of the way Manchester City's form in the final third has fluctuated, but they are capable of putting teams to the sword. After the complacency of last Sunday, I think the manager will be emphasising focus in the final third this time around and Manchester City should come away with a relatively comfortable win.


Wolves v Leicester City Pick: Two Midlands clubs meet on Valentine's Day but there will be no gifts and proclamations of love being handed out when Wolves host Leicester City in the live televised offering.

Both of these clubs will be dreaming about playing in the Champions League next season and have serious ambitions of doing that. Leicester City are well on their way to a top four finish, but Wolves could join them with a strong run in either the Premier League or the Europa League.

Both teams have not been playing as poorly as the recent results may suggest, but like many clubs outside of Manchester City and Liverpool there is a sense of inconsistency in levels being produced. On one day you will see both Leicester City and Wolves looking as good as any club out there, but on another they can be ground down and struggling for composure in the final third.

Having a two week break should help the clubs as batteries have been recharged and the game being played on the Friday night should mean they avoid the tougher conditions that might be around the United Kingdom over the remainder of the weekend.

Wolves will look to get forward and that should also mean there are opportunities for Leicester City. In recent games played by these two clubs, chances have come at both ends of the field and, while fixtures between Wolves and Leicester City have been tight in the last eighteen months, I do think we will see goals when these two meet this weekend.

The layers are less convinced, but Wolves will have hosted all of the current top six by the end of this fixture- in the last 5 we have seen 4 feature three or more goals shared out. 7 of the last 8 Leicester City away games have also featured at least three goals and I think we will see enough chances at both ends which should give us every chance of seeing that amount of goals shared out on Friday too.


Southampton v Burnley Pick: There look to be some tough conditions to deal with on the south coast on Saturday and that may make it a more difficult game to predict at this stage.

However there is still some time for things to change and Southampton have to be confident in getting back to winning ways having lost at Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur in consecutive fixtures.

The last two months have seen Southampton in some very good form and they have begun to feel more comfortable playing at home. Ralph Hasenhuttl has the players on the same page and The Saints have won half of their last 8 home games in all competitions.

Southampton did blow a 2-0 lead over Wolves in the eventual 2-3 loss here in the League which means they have won half of their last 6 Premier League games here. They are creating chances and in Danny Ings they have a striker capable of taking them which will make Southampton a threat to teams in the final three months of the season.

It won't be easy against Burnley who can be difficult to face in perfect conditions, while Southampton have been a little vulnerable at the back throughout the season. The home team have only had 2 Premier League clean sheets at St Mary's since November 2018, but the goals have been coming and Burnley have had their issues away from home which has me leaning towards the home team.

If it is the high winds and heavy rains forecasted it will make it a difficult day for both teams and the bounce of the ball could come down to a bit of luck either way. Southampton also have had a poor couple of home results against Burnley, but I think the form they are in will give them the edge.

As good as the recent Burnley run has been, they have been riding their luck at the back and I will look for Southampton to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Norwich City v Liverpool Pick: There was a storm battering the United Kingdom last weekend and there is every chance we are going to see some very difficult conditions at Carrow Road on Saturday afternoon this weekend too.

That could even things up for Norwich City who have found the top clubs in the Premier League tough to deal with even when accounting for the 3-2 success over Manchester City earlier this season. Norwich City have been tougher to face in front of their own fans, but they are vulnerable defensively and that has been exposed by a number of clubs and in only 3 of their 12 home Premier League games have ended with the visitors scoring less than two goals.

It is going to be a test for Norwich City regardless of the playing conditions as we are set to deal with heavy rain and winds for a second weekend in a row.

The problem for Norwich City is that they are a team that wants to get the ball down and play too and that means they are not likely to throw in a load of crosses and try and unsettle Liverpool that way.

They have been scoring plenty of goals at home and Liverpool are far from watertight at the back regardless of their recent record of clean sheets. However I can't see how Norwich City will keep a clean sheet with a motivated Liverpool coming back from their own two week break and looking for some momentum to take into their Champions League Last 16 tie and I do think the away side are going to prove to be too strong.

Liverpool have won 6 in a row at Carrow Road and they have scored a boatload of goals in that run. 3 of their last 5 away wins in the Premier League have come by two or more goal margins and I think that is going to be the case on Saturday barring some big mistakes at the back when dealing with wet and windy conditions.

Half of Norwich City's 6 home losses in the Premier League have come by two or more goal margins and I will back Liverpool to do that here.


Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The first game from the two Sunday offerings from the Premier League comes from Villa Park and by all accounts the really poor weather of Saturday will likely be much more reasonable when this one kicks off.

It may still be wet and a little windy, but neither Dean Smith nor Jose Mourinho can afford to make excuses for their teams who are desperate for the three points for differing reasons.

Aston Villa are trying to fight to avoid the drop and Tottenham Hotspur are trying to get back into the race for the Champions League places so neither can really expect to want to settle for a point. The home team have played attacking football under Dean Smith and that has sometimes left them vulnerable at the back, but they do score goals and they can trouble a Tottenham Hotspur team that have not had a lot of clean sheets even after Jose Mourinho has come in.

The manager has had time to work with his players during this 'Winter Break' so we may see a more disciplined Tottenham Hotspur team, although they also have the distraction of a Champions League tie coming up.

In both recent Aston Villa and recent Tottenham Hotspur games teams have created chances at both ends of the field and the feeling is that this one won't be any different. The style of the home team should make it an open fixture and I would not be surprised if both teams were to find the back of the net.

With both teams likely keen on securing the three points it may keep things open through the majority of the ninety minutes and so backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.

I was close to suggesting Aston Villa with a start on the Asian Handicap, but their defensive concerns means I am less keen on that than backing at least three goals being produced on the day.


Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: The Winter Break has come and gone for both Arsenal and Newcastle United and both managers will be hoping to feel the benefit of the short break immediately.

Mikel Arteta will be hoping the time away with his squad will help him and his players begin to understand one another a little more. The results since he took over as manager of Arsenal have been a little inconsistent with some decent performances mixed in with old defensive mistakes left over from Unai Emery's time in charge.

On the other side will be Steve Bruce who has performed better than expected as manager of Newcastle United and finally seems to be getting the fans behind him. The run to the FA Cup Fifth Round has helped him strengthen his position in charge and Bruce will be keen to have a number of squad members return from injury off the break.

The squad had looked stretched prior to the Break, but Newcastle United have been stubborn and hard to break down. They seem to be playing with a lot of belief that has helped the club fight back from losing positions and that makes them dangerous against an Arsenal team who have struggled at both ends of the field.

Arsenal fans will be hoping the break will have helped put together better patterns in attacking and defensive areas and it is a little difficult to trust them to win games at the moment. Like Newcastle United, Arsenal have saved their wins for FA Cup games rather than Premier League ones, but this is a team who have won 2 of their last 3 here.

Neither team can point to really strong defensive performances and I do think the attacking players will have the better of the game. Arsenal have won 7 in a row at the Emirates Stadium against Newcastle United which should aid the mentality of the players and I do think they will get the better of The Magpies in the second of the two live Sunday games from the Premier League.

It is not easy to trust Arsenal when you think of the prolonged poor run of results they have had, but in what could be an open game I would think they can win and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: The big game in the Premier League this weekend has been saved for Monday Night Football as Chelsea get set to host Manchester United. Both clubs have enjoyed two weeks to recharge the batteries and this is a game that could be pivotal to how the shake up for the Champions League places are concluded later this season.

Just 6 points separate Chelsea in 4th place and Manchester United in 8th and there will be a host of clubs keeping a keen eye on seeing how The Blues are coping with an increased pressure on them. While Chelsea have been stumbling, others have not been able to take advantage and that includes Manchester United who have won 1 of their last 5 Premier League games and been beaten 3 times in that run.

A lack of goals is a concern and Marcus Rashford remains sidelined so it is important for Odion Ighalo to get up and running immediately. There are chances being created by Manchester United and I do think the returns of Nemanja Matic and possibly Scott McTominay will really help the team going forward.

However they are facing a Chelsea team who have also been very good at creating chances without finding the consistency in the final third that Frank Lampard would have liked. Tammy Abraham has got goals, but not many against the better teams in the Premier League and there is a pressure on the young England striker after Chelsea were not able to bring in reinforcements in the January transfer window.

The lack of consistency in the final third has been punished by opponents taking advantage of what has been a vulnerable Chelsea defence and that may be the case here on Monday.

Manchester United have beaten Chelsea twice this season which will give them confidence, but Marcus Rashford scored four of the six goals and is missing. They are unbeaten in 3 at Stamford Bridge having scored at least twice in each of those visits, but Chelsea won't allow that to worry them and their style of play means they will likely get forward too.

I was close to backing Manchester United to avoid defeat, but it might need two goals from the away side to do that. Both teams will have their chances to score and I can see at least three goals being shared out when Chelsea and Manchester United meet on Monday.

A lack of United goals prior to the Winter Break is a concern, but they were creating chances and Ighalo has scored goals at this level. Having a more settled midfield will help, but Manchester United are far from watertight at the back and a high-scoring game is in prospect.

MY PICKS: Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Brighton-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.35 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

February 2019/20: 4-4, - 0.06 Units (16 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
January 2019/20: 5-12, - 14.66 Units (34 Units Staked, - 43.12% Yield)
December 2019/20: 16-14, - 0.58 Units (60 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 26

Of course you can understand why the Premier League has placed a Winter Break into the schedule to try and help our clubs recover after a crazy couple of months.

The one thing most Fantasy Football players wanted to know was how GameWeek 26 was going to work in terms of our deadlines- would it be one to cover the round or two considering matches would be scheduled on different weekends?

The right decision was one deadline to cover the round, but the frustration is that we will only have eight of the scheduled twenty press conferences in the books before that deadline is met. It means almost second guessing some managers, while there are some key players who have picked up knocks that we won't be able to assess for this round of games.

I am a little frustrated by that too, although the majority of my squad do have a full bill of health going into this round of matches. Some may pick up knocks during their warm weather training camps, but it is what it is and we have to take it as it comes.

I mentioned last week that the FA Cup Replays could have an impact on GameWeek 31 and we will begin to note how many teams are going to be playing that weekend. Without a doubt I think the Free Hit chip is going to be most valuable for that round of games, although I think the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round will be key.

That will be made after the Fifth Round ties are completed in the first midweek of March and barring a number of upsets I would be surprised if we don't have at least ten teams out of action in GameWeek 31. If there are less than that I may have to consider the draw and wonder if the Free Hit would be better used when the Semi Final weekend comes around, but those decisions will be for another day.

The worst case scenario is that only three Premier League matches remain in place and then the draw for the Sixth Round might be key in determining how I will handle the rest of the season.

We will come back to that in a couple of weeks once I get a few more thoughts about it cleared up.

My GW26 Team

I mentioned last weekend that I had some players on my list that will need to be removed with the Free Transfers over the next three or four weeks and I have begun that this weekend.

Last weekend I needed to change Sadio Mane for Mohamed Salah and it proved to be the key for the 79 points earned as the Egyptian managed 32 points of those with the Captain tag assigned.

While it means I had to delay some of my other transfers that I wanted to make, it is not a decision I will need to regret in what was a positive week after a difficult time of late.

The transfer this week was a pretty easy one as 'Cult' Fantasy player John Lundstram has been moved out of my team. I have had him before GW1 and the Sheffield United player has proved his worth by producing solid points all season.

However I have noted that his recent playing time has been on the decline and Chris Wilder has signed a player for a record fee that looks certain to take Lundstram's starting berth. He might still have some opportunities, but the signs are not good and moving him out in favour of team mate Enda Stevens was the call for me.

My GW27 transfer in two weeks time is also looking like a relatively straight-forward one to make, but it is always best to let fixtures be concluded in case some of the key members of the squad pick up injuries in the two weeks between the GW26 deadline and the GW27 one.

Alisson- Norwich City away and unlikely to be rested with the Champions League game at Atletico Madrid in mind.

Enda Stevens- Sheffield United been strong at keeping clean sheets and Stevens is a goal threat as well as a potential assist maker.

Serge Aurier- I am not convinced by Tottenham Hotspur at the back, but Serge Aurier can produce attacking returns.

Harry Maguire- my most difficult decision, but Manchester United have had two clean sheets against Chelsea this season. With likely better set piece delivery from Bruno Fernandes, perhaps a first League goal is not too far away either.

Mohamed Salah (C)- potential to be rested, but off a two week break I find it unlikely. Norwich City are poor at the back, and Mohamed Salah in fine form.

Kevin De Bruyne- home game against a porous West Ham United team.

Jack Grealish- tough home game against Spurs, but they are not quite right at the back and anything good from Aston Villa usually comes through Jack Grealish.

James Ward-Prowse- picked up a nasty injury against Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup Fourth Round, but I expect him to be ready in ten days time.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin- leading the line for a shot hungry Everton team against Crystal Palace.

Troy Deeney- big game for Watford this weekend, but Deeney has a habit of picking up his play in these moments. Has been in good form under Nigel Pearson.

Roberto Firmino- another I would expect to avoid a rest after a two week break and been better away from home than at Anfield in the Premier League.

Bench- Michael McGovern, Caglar Soyuncu (if Ward-Prowse can't go, I don't mind Soyuncu being first sub over other options), Federico Fernandez (difficult away game at Arsenal), Pablo Fornals (seems out of favour under David Moyes despite the attacking injuries at West Ham United).