It was another decent day for the tennis picks yesterday, but I'll be the first to admit that I didn't see Gael Monfils' performance coming in his defeat against Daniel Brands. I've only seen highlights of that match and it has seemed that Brands has played better than I thought he would, while Monfils was a little too passive against a player he should be dominating.
Overall, it hasn't been a bad week for Monfils and I think he will take the positives ahead of the first Grand Slam of the season.
On another note, Andy Murray made hard work of his first match of the 2013 season, but was eventually too strong for John Millman. Murray admitted that Ivan Lendl would have been a little annoyed if he had lost that match and I think it is clear that he has been sent to Brisbane in a bid to retain his title from a season ago.
There aren't too many obstacles here that should worry the World Number 3, and the same could be said of David Ferrer in Doha where he does look head and shoulders the best player in the tournament.
Today, we will also see the first real marquee match of the new season as Serena Williams takes on Victoria Azarenka in the Semi Final at Brisbane and the winner will be the big favourite to lift their first title of 2013.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: Yesterday I said that I do believe Jurgen Melzer will be going down the Rankings this season, but that I still favoured to beat his young opponent David Goffin... This time I think he is playing someone who should make a significant move up the Rankings this season and a player that is ready to beat him.
Grigor Dimitrov has had a lot of hype surrounding him for a few seasons, especially so since he won the Junior Wimbledon title in 2008 and comparisons to Roger Federer have been rife in the media.
I'm not sure he will ever reach those very high heights that Federer has in his career, but I think he has the nous in this one to make life difficult for Melzer and follow up his win over the Austrian that he achieved on an indoor hard court at the back end of last season.
Melzer is not as effective on an outdoor hard court and I'll look for Dimitrov to record a 6-3, 7-6 win.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Denis Istomin: Andy Murray had a scare in his first official match of the new season and I expect him to be much more focused on this one and he should be able to give Denis Istomin plenty of problems.
I don't want people to under-estimate Istomin as he does have a decent game, one that he can sometimes exploit to a higher level where he hits winner after winner. My issue for the Uzbek is that he should find himself under pressure on his own serve against one of the best returners in the game and that should lead to a fairly routine win for Murray.
Istomin has certainly pushed some of the better opponents he faced in 2012, but he didn't play too many players like Murray who are capable of making players play an extra ball in rallies and the one time he did face someone like that was Rafael Nadal in a match where he won 4 games in 3 sets, albeit on Nadal's favourite clay surface.
Murray should be too strong and win fairly routinely, 6-3, 6-4.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: The US Open was as close as Victoria Azarenka has got over the last 18 months to knocking off Serena Williams, but she fell a little short and has now lost 9 times in a row to the American.
Azarenka has been playing the more solid tennis of the two this week, but Serena raises her game for the competition she faces and has hardly been troubled herself. When the serve is working, Serena can put a lot of pressure on opponents and I think she will see this as a chance to lay down a marker for the 2013 season, in particular for the Australian Open.
I love Azarenka's passion, but opposing her against Williams has been the call and most of the times she has been beaten fairly comfortably. The spread needs Williams to win a much tighter one this time and I have to back it until Victoria Azarenka proves she is over the mental hurdle of playing the 'real' World Number 1.
A 6-4, 6-4 win, the same at the End of Year Championships in Istanbul, shouldn't be far off the mark.
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Go Soeda: This is a rematch from a year ago and I believe we are going to see a similar scoreline to the 6-1, 6-4 win recorded by Janko Tipsarevic in the Semi Final of this tournament against Go Soeda.
This time they meet in the Quarter Final and I just think Tipsarevic is too consistent in almost all facets of the game and should be able to take care of this opponent.
Soeda has not played anyone close to the level Tipsarevic is at in the first two rounds here and he just doesn't trouble the best players on the ATP Tour. Tipsarevic should be too good for him from the start and while Soeda may get an extra game on the board, I think the Serb will be able to cover this spread at very reasonable odds.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Daniel Brands: I am hoping that I haven't begun laying a player that is going to have a break out tournament, but I do like Richard Gasquet to perform stronger than Gael Monfils and win this match.
It has already been a long week for Daniel Brands who had to come through three qualifying rounds to get through to this Semi Final and I think that is going to catch up on him at some point. Richard Gasquet will also know Brands' game having played him three seasons ago and I think he can up the ante on the German in a way that Monfils was unable to do yesterday.
Hopefully Gasquet doesn't make the slow start that affected his compatriot yesterday and I think he can win with a break in each set, or at least a break more in each set that Brands can manage.
David Ferrer - 4 games v Nikolay Davydenko: A couple of seasons ago, this would have been a really tough match to predict as Nikolay Davydenko had the shot making and consistency to trouble even a player like David Ferrer that loves making opponents play one more shot.
However, I think at this stage of their careers, Ferrer is far too consistent for Davydenko and will exert enough pressure to win this Semi Final with a little room to spare.
Ferrer beat Davydenko 6-3, 6-4 when they last met around 14 months ago and I can see a similar scoreline in this one.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-3, + 7.17 Units (17 Units Staked, + 42.2% Yield)
Thursday, 3 January 2013
Wednesday, 2 January 2013
Tennis Picks (January 3rd)
It was another decent day yesterday with 2 of the 3 picks coming in as winners, and hopefully that will continue this week. This is the time when the top players start entering the tournaments and Andy Murray will play his first match of the 2013 season when he takes on John Millman in Brisane- I think it could be a big season for Murray and definitely think he is a big contender to win back to back Grand Slams when the Australian Open begins in under two weeks time.
As I mentioned yesterday, the picks from the tournaments in the Pacific and the one in Doha have to be split when the layers get their markets up.
Jurgen Melzer v David Goffin: I am expecting these two players to be exchanging places in the Rankings with David Goffin to finish 2013 higher than Jurgen Melzer, but I still think Melzer shouldn't be the underdog in this contest just yet.
Melzer beat Goffin in a close contest a couple of months ago as a big favourite and I think his game is still big enough for him to take this win, although it could require three sets to do so.
I wouldn't be overly confident on the Austrian that seems to lose focus more often these days, but a small interest on the dog has to be taken on.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Agnieszka Radwanska is one of the most consistent players on the Tour and she rarely makes tough work of opponents she should be beating- Elena Vesnina counts as one of those players and she has barely got close to making it a match the last three times she has played Radwanska.
In fact, Vesnina has won a total of 4 games in the last 3 sets these two have competed against one another. The Russian has struggled against the best players on the WTA Tour over the last season and I think it could be more of the same in this one.
I can see Radwanska winning this, likely with a 6-3, 6-2 scoreline.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Daniel Brands: While Gael Monfils is on the comeback trail, I like the way he has performed so far this week and I think he will be too strong for Daniel Brands.
As long as the week isn't catching up with Monfils, he should be able to beat a player whose best results have come on the clay courts. Brands has done well to get to this Quarter Final, but beating Jeremy Chardy and Mohamed Safwat isn't enough to convince me that he can beat a player that could easily finish in the top ten.
I'd expect a break more for the Frenchman in each set and a 6-4, 6-4 win looks on the cards.
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games v Simone Bolelli: This is a bit of a risky pick as Nikolay Davydenko is certainly not the player of even a couple of seasons ago, but he should be too consistent for Simone Bolelli.
Bolelli has probably under-achieved in his career, but he has fought through two rounds this week to reach this Quarter Final, his best showing on a hard court in his career (at this level). That strengthens my belief that Davydenko will be too good for the Italian as he is far by and away the best player he would have faced this week.
Davydenko has performed well to knock of Mikhail Youzhny as easily as he did and he has also dominated the three previous meetings with Bolelli.
He should be able to win this 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Jurgen Melzer @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 4.30 (10 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
As I mentioned yesterday, the picks from the tournaments in the Pacific and the one in Doha have to be split when the layers get their markets up.
Jurgen Melzer v David Goffin: I am expecting these two players to be exchanging places in the Rankings with David Goffin to finish 2013 higher than Jurgen Melzer, but I still think Melzer shouldn't be the underdog in this contest just yet.
Melzer beat Goffin in a close contest a couple of months ago as a big favourite and I think his game is still big enough for him to take this win, although it could require three sets to do so.
I wouldn't be overly confident on the Austrian that seems to lose focus more often these days, but a small interest on the dog has to be taken on.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Agnieszka Radwanska is one of the most consistent players on the Tour and she rarely makes tough work of opponents she should be beating- Elena Vesnina counts as one of those players and she has barely got close to making it a match the last three times she has played Radwanska.
In fact, Vesnina has won a total of 4 games in the last 3 sets these two have competed against one another. The Russian has struggled against the best players on the WTA Tour over the last season and I think it could be more of the same in this one.
I can see Radwanska winning this, likely with a 6-3, 6-2 scoreline.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Daniel Brands: While Gael Monfils is on the comeback trail, I like the way he has performed so far this week and I think he will be too strong for Daniel Brands.
As long as the week isn't catching up with Monfils, he should be able to beat a player whose best results have come on the clay courts. Brands has done well to get to this Quarter Final, but beating Jeremy Chardy and Mohamed Safwat isn't enough to convince me that he can beat a player that could easily finish in the top ten.
I'd expect a break more for the Frenchman in each set and a 6-4, 6-4 win looks on the cards.
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games v Simone Bolelli: This is a bit of a risky pick as Nikolay Davydenko is certainly not the player of even a couple of seasons ago, but he should be too consistent for Simone Bolelli.
Bolelli has probably under-achieved in his career, but he has fought through two rounds this week to reach this Quarter Final, his best showing on a hard court in his career (at this level). That strengthens my belief that Davydenko will be too good for the Italian as he is far by and away the best player he would have faced this week.
Davydenko has performed well to knock of Mikhail Youzhny as easily as he did and he has also dominated the three previous meetings with Bolelli.
He should be able to win this 6-3, 6-4
MY PICKS: Jurgen Melzer @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 4.30 (10 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Tuesday, 1 January 2013
Tennis Picks (January 2nd)
I have made a slow start to the new season as you can't always try and second guess how some players have come off their break- a lot of them haven't played for a couple of months now and it is understandable that there will be some surprise results in the next two weeks.
Most of the 'big name' players are already pretty much focused on getting themselves ready for the Australian Open that begins on January 14th and that has already seen the likes of Rafael Nadal out of the event, while Maria Sharapova is a potential big name player out of the Woman's draw.
Yesterday, Tatsuma Ito didn't get the job done against John Millman- Ito actually let 3-2 in the first set with a break of serve, but almost nothing went right from him going on from that point and he lost 10 of the next 12 games to fall to a comfortable loss. That means I am still up for the first couple of days, although the 100% record for the picks is finished on the first day of the calender year and second day of the tennis season.
I only jest of course, show me someone who gets 100% picks right and I'll show you a liar!!
With the way the tournaments are being played this week, I will make my picks from the tournaments in New Zealand, Australia, China and India early, and I will update if there are any additions from the tournament in the Middle East. I hate having to do things this way as it can look like 'chasing' if early picks are unsuccessful, but unfortunately the layers don't keep up and the proper markets are down until the morning for Doha, while the other tournaments are priced up 'a day early' with the timezone difference.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: Victoria Azarenka is the official Woman's Number 1 as Serena Williams just doesn't play enough tournaments to take that off of her, but she is not like Caroline Wozniaki... Azarenka is the second best player in the Woman's game in my opinion and she is a real threat to win any of the Grand Slam tournaments this season, especially if she can avoid playing Williams.
With that in mind, I think Azarenka will be far too consistent for Sabine Lisicki, a player that I would consider as under-achieving in her career so far. They met towards the back end of last season and Azarenka had considerable success on the Lisicki serve and anything like that here will see her have a chance to cover.
My biggest concern is that this is Azarenka's first match of the new season, but memories of her incredibly fast start to last season is still fresh in my mind and I like her chances in this one to win with a 6-2, 6-4 scoreline.
Mikhail Youzhny v Nikolay Davydenko: Both of these players will know each other very well and both are now coming towards the back end of their respective careers.
Mikhail Youznhy and Nikolay Davydenko have been priced as a pick 'em contest for the most part, but I think Youzhny is the tougher player mentally and is less likely to give the match away if things are not going his way.
Last season, it quickly became clear that Davydenko's consistency, which had helped him reach the heights of the ATP Tour, was no longer as devastating as it once was and he makes far too many mistakes these days. I think Youzhny now will be able to hold his own on the ground and I think it is telling that he has won the last two meetings between these players on the Tour.
I feel Youzhny will make it a hat-trick of wins in a row against Davydenko in this one.
Gael Monfils v Philipp Kohlschreiber: I do get frustrated watching Gael Monfils sometimes as he looks like a player that has all the talent in the World but doesn't want to put in the long hours to get everything possible out of his own potential.
However, with all that said, I really missed seeing the Frenchman on the Tour for much of last season and it was good to see him playing in a couple of tournaments at the end of last season in anticipation of this year.
I am surprised that the layers have set him as the underdog in this one considering Monfils has said that he is 100% fine and has set himself a goal of reaching the top ten. I am hoping his enforced lay off will make him appreciate what he gets to do as a 'job' and may also build the fire to improve within him.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough opponent, but Monfils has beaten him in 7 of their 8 professional matches, while the Frenchman also took care of him in his first tournament back in action after a 6 month lay off. Monfils shouldn't be the underdog and I'll back him to win this one.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.06 (4 Units Staked, + 51.5% Yield)
Most of the 'big name' players are already pretty much focused on getting themselves ready for the Australian Open that begins on January 14th and that has already seen the likes of Rafael Nadal out of the event, while Maria Sharapova is a potential big name player out of the Woman's draw.
Yesterday, Tatsuma Ito didn't get the job done against John Millman- Ito actually let 3-2 in the first set with a break of serve, but almost nothing went right from him going on from that point and he lost 10 of the next 12 games to fall to a comfortable loss. That means I am still up for the first couple of days, although the 100% record for the picks is finished on the first day of the calender year and second day of the tennis season.
I only jest of course, show me someone who gets 100% picks right and I'll show you a liar!!
With the way the tournaments are being played this week, I will make my picks from the tournaments in New Zealand, Australia, China and India early, and I will update if there are any additions from the tournament in the Middle East. I hate having to do things this way as it can look like 'chasing' if early picks are unsuccessful, but unfortunately the layers don't keep up and the proper markets are down until the morning for Doha, while the other tournaments are priced up 'a day early' with the timezone difference.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: Victoria Azarenka is the official Woman's Number 1 as Serena Williams just doesn't play enough tournaments to take that off of her, but she is not like Caroline Wozniaki... Azarenka is the second best player in the Woman's game in my opinion and she is a real threat to win any of the Grand Slam tournaments this season, especially if she can avoid playing Williams.
With that in mind, I think Azarenka will be far too consistent for Sabine Lisicki, a player that I would consider as under-achieving in her career so far. They met towards the back end of last season and Azarenka had considerable success on the Lisicki serve and anything like that here will see her have a chance to cover.
My biggest concern is that this is Azarenka's first match of the new season, but memories of her incredibly fast start to last season is still fresh in my mind and I like her chances in this one to win with a 6-2, 6-4 scoreline.
Mikhail Youzhny v Nikolay Davydenko: Both of these players will know each other very well and both are now coming towards the back end of their respective careers.
Mikhail Youznhy and Nikolay Davydenko have been priced as a pick 'em contest for the most part, but I think Youzhny is the tougher player mentally and is less likely to give the match away if things are not going his way.
Last season, it quickly became clear that Davydenko's consistency, which had helped him reach the heights of the ATP Tour, was no longer as devastating as it once was and he makes far too many mistakes these days. I think Youzhny now will be able to hold his own on the ground and I think it is telling that he has won the last two meetings between these players on the Tour.
I feel Youzhny will make it a hat-trick of wins in a row against Davydenko in this one.
Gael Monfils v Philipp Kohlschreiber: I do get frustrated watching Gael Monfils sometimes as he looks like a player that has all the talent in the World but doesn't want to put in the long hours to get everything possible out of his own potential.
However, with all that said, I really missed seeing the Frenchman on the Tour for much of last season and it was good to see him playing in a couple of tournaments at the end of last season in anticipation of this year.
I am surprised that the layers have set him as the underdog in this one considering Monfils has said that he is 100% fine and has set himself a goal of reaching the top ten. I am hoping his enforced lay off will make him appreciate what he gets to do as a 'job' and may also build the fire to improve within him.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough opponent, but Monfils has beaten him in 7 of their 8 professional matches, while the Frenchman also took care of him in his first tournament back in action after a 6 month lay off. Monfils shouldn't be the underdog and I'll back him to win this one.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.06 (4 Units Staked, + 51.5% Yield)
NBA Picks January 2013
The first two months of the season have seen some familiar things, for example the San Antonio Spurs/Miami Heat/Oklahoma City Thunder being amongst the leading teams in their respective Conferences.
We have also seen the regularly slow-starting Boston Celtics, while Los Angeles seems to have flipped on its head with the Clippers looking dominant and the Lakers struggling to get things going. The last month will at least seen some positives for the Lakers as they have finally begun to look like the team they were expected to be in the off-season and they are beginning to move up the Western Conference standings.
The biggest disappointments so far have to be the Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks as injuries have taken their toll on their squads and both are going to be in a fight to make the Play Offs if they don't produce a better January.
We are still some six weeks until the All-Star Game, a game that represents a turning point for some of the better teams as they start getting themselves into Play Off mode, but this is still an important time for the not so good teams to at least get some momentum and keep wins ticking along. No one wants to put themselves in a position where they need long winning streaks in March and April to make the Play Offs.
January 1st
Philadelphia 76ers @ LA Lakers Pick: I think this is a good spot for the LA Lakers to finally get back above 0.500 as they can fully focus on the game with a couple of rest days coming up before a 5 game run against some of the best teams in the Western Conference.
The Lakers are on a 6-1 run and they are playing a Philadelphia team that have lost 8 of their last 9 on the road and who have to be a little weary during their current long road trip.
There seems to be too much scoring power in the Lakers Offense at the moment to think the 76ers will be able to contain them in my opinion.
January 2nd
New Orleans Hornets @ Houston Rockets Pick: The New Orleans Hornets put in a big effort last night before coming up short against the Atlanta Hawks and they have struggled in this spot previously. In fact, the Hornets are just 2-6 straight up in the second of back to back nights play and they have lost their last 3 against the spread.
Houston continue to churn out a lot of points in recent games and that makes me believe they will be too good for the Hornets and will be able to pull away in this game.
The spot is a good one for the Rockets who have been as productive at home as the Hornets have been poor on the road.
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I backed against the Brooklyn Nets when they travelled to face one of the Western Conference powerhouses on New Year's Eve and they didn't show anything in that game to prevent me from backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this one.
The Thunder are off a couple of blow out wins and I think there is every chance the Nets are just looking forward to getting back to the East where they will travel to face Washington and then host Sacramento, two much more winnable contests for them.
Oklahoma City look like a team with too much scoring power and while it won't be the 30 point beating the Nets took from San Antonio, I do like the Thunder to cover.
January 7th
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Pick: Being a Knicks fans means it can be hard to let my head rule my heart, but giving up 6 points to Boston who have the clear edge at Point Guard looks too much for me.
Boston have just picked up a couple of positive results in their last couple of games and they have a good record at Madison Square Garden. I think the Celtics will give New York a hard time, particularly with Avery Bradley giving them more defensive energy, and they should be able to keep this close.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: The Spurs have beaten the Hornets twice this season, but only by a combined 9 points yet I do like them to win this one and cover the spread.
New Orleans struggle to score points Offensively and I think San Antonio have enough depth to out-score this Hornets team. It also seems a better spot for San Antonio as they face a team that put in a huge effort to eventually knock off the Dallas Mavericks last time out. The Spurs also have a couple of days to spare before they meet the LA Lakers.
I just see too much scoring from the Spurs against a New Orleans averaging 91.7 points per game.
January 8th
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Miami Heat are probably not going to really pick up the pace until after the All Star Game next month, but they should be fully motivated in this one against the Indiana Pacers.
We saw how chippy the Play Off series between these sides was and I think the Heat are too athletic for the Pacers. The penetration that LeBron and Wade can get should open up the three point range and as long as Miami concentrate defensively, I think they cover this spread, although it could be close throughout.
January 9th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: I am backing the Chicago Bulls in this game as they are well matched against the Bucks and I do think they will get a measure of respect back after blowing a 27 point lead in their loss against Milwaukee most recently.
Chicago have opened up 2013 in good form, winning at Miami, while Milwaukee have an awful record when playing on the second of back to back nights play.
Tiredness could set in for the Bucks as the game goes on and I think the Bulls will do enough to cover the 5.5 points.
January 22nd
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I have taken another couple of weeks off from the NBA picks as it was a tough start to the month and I felt I wasn't capping things correctly.
I am back with a couple of picks today, the first being the Detroit Pistons to cover the spread against the Orlando Magic. Both of these teams have losing records, but momentum is certainly with the Pistons and I think they can roll to another win on their home court and progress beyond 0.500 that they are at the Palace of Auburn Hills.
Confidence is higher in the Pistons locker room I would feel, and Orlando could easily be looking to getting back home where they host Toronto and Detroit in the coming week. With the Pistons moving on to face Chicago and Miami, they should be focused on picking up a win here to build on their recent run ahead of facing two of the better teams in the East.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Firing Scott Skiles seems to have fired up the Milwaukee Bucks and I think they are in a good spot to cover the spread against an under-achieving Philadelphia squad.
The 76ers put in a huge effort at San Antonio yesterday and they have lost their last 7 games when playing the second of back to back nights scheduled, losing those games by 13 points per game.
Milwaukee have been playing inspired basketball under Jim Boylan and they are scoring plenty of points- neither side has another game scheduled until later in the week so should fully concentrate on this one... The difference may be the fatigue, both mental and physical, that Philadelphia could be suffering from their efforts last night and so I like the Bucks to cover.
January 23rd
LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It's been a pretty crappy season for the LA Lakers and it may just get a little worse before it gets better for them as they visit the tough Memphis Grizzlies.
Memphis have struggled Offensively, failing to exceed 85 points in 6 consecutive games, but they are facing a team in disarray and have a real chance to put a marker down for their ambitions in the Western Conference.
The Lakers are completing a road trip here before heading back to the Staples Center and they may just be looking ahead to that time where they can rediscover some semblance of form. Instead, I'll take the Grizzlies to extend their road woes with a win and a cover.
January 24th
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: I am taking the awful Orlando Magic in this one, because the spot looks a good one for the team as they are facing Toronto off a couple of big performances against the LA Lakers and the Miami Heat.
Toronto beat the Lakers and then took the Heat to Overtime last night and there is little doubt that they could be flat in this one against an opponent they won't really care about. The Raptors also return to Canada after this one.
Orlando have been terrible Defensively in their last 14 games so it is a risky proposition, but it looks an appealing spot to ignore.
January 25th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks look the better team in this one and Cleveland could have a slight letdown following a good win over the Boston Celtics.
The Bucks have the back court duo of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis that could win the battle with Kyrie Irving and that could prove to be the difference. Milwaukee have also dominated the recent series between the teams and look worth backing to cover the spread.
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: Both teams have been struggling Defensively while proving more than capable of performing Offensively and that should lead to a high-scoring game between them in this one.
New Orleans are looking to improve Defensively, but that won't be easy against this Houston team that is very productive through James Harden. There is every chance both teams score triple digits in this one and that should lead to the total points being surpassed.
Utah Jazz @ LA Lakers Pick: I like the Utah Jazz to at least keep this game close as the LA Lakers are still trying to get on the same page with one another after yet another 4 game losing streak.
Rumours are that Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant got into some sort of altercation in a team meeting on Wednesday and the All-Star Center is set to miss this game after re-injuring a shoulder in the loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Jazz have also won the last 4 in the series between the teams, including 3 of their last 4 at the Staples Center. There is every chance they can become the latest team to expose the poor Defensive schemes used by the Lakers and keep this close at the very least.
January 27th
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Pick: Miami are definitely playing the better basketball of the two teams at the moment, but that form can go out of the window as this rivalry will inspire Boston to up their own game.
However, the Heat have the added motivation of performing at a high level for Ray Allen, who will be making his first return to Boston since leaving in the off-season, and we have seen how Miami reacted to LeBron James' first game back at Cleveland.
I would not at all be surprised if Allen sinks a couple of big threes to ice the game late on and I like the a motivated Heat in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers Pick: Oklahoma City have looked a little weary as their 6 game road trip comes to an end at the Staples Center, but they have dominated the LA Lakers in recent games in the series and I think they carry that on here.
I know the Lakers looked better in their win against Utah, but this is the team with the best record in the NBA that they are facing and I think their defensive schemes will be pushed to the extremes.
This game is arguably more important for Oklahoma City to prove to the NBA that they are the real deal in the Western Conference and I think the win and cover.
New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have picked up some real momentum in recent games and they have found their Offensive groove, which doesn't bode well for teams taking on one of the better Defensive teams in the NBA.
With that momentum, the Grizzlies should take care of the New Orleans Hornets who have come off the boil following 7 wins from 9 games and they struggled to score points against Houston last time out.
Memphis have dominated the recent series and should be able to win the game and cover the spread.
January 28th
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: I've had a terrible week, but hoping the next two picks will turn things around when it comes to the basketball picks.
I like the Denver Nuggets to cover in this game against Indiana as the Pacers are concluding a four game Western Conference road trip and may be focusing on heading back home.
It is already tough to play at the Pepsi Center against this Denver team that has plenty of Offense and that could be the difference again.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz Pick: I do like the way the Houston Rockets play, but this is a really tough road game for them against the Utah Jazz and I believe the home team will have a little too much and win the game and cover the spread.
The status of Gordon Hayward is a concern for the home team, but they have been very solid in front of their own fans all season, while Houston have recently come off a long losing run and may not be quite ready to win here.
There could be a lot of Play Off implications resting on which of these teams wins the season series, which stands at 1-1 at the moment, but Utah have been solid when hosting Houston in recent games and should be a little too good again.
No more picks this month after a terrible run of form, although my frustrations just boiled over after watching the way Denver screwed the pick... Andre Iguodala decides easy lay ups are no longer for him as the Nuggets are outscored 19-6 in final 6 minutes. It wasn't just the fact he missed easy buckets, he then misses all FOUR free throws only to then score his one free throw with 0.4 seconds left to win the game.
I feel I have lost my edge a little this last week and I am not entirely sure why, although teams blowing big leads have just about got the better of me (Denver and Milwaukee just two off the top of my head that had double digit leads by the middle of the third quarter and won by 1 and lost by 3 respectively).
Some of the picks felt and looked right, but the players failed to perform (how did the Heat lose to Rondo-less Boston and Oklahoma City lose to the terrible LA Lakers?)
The season has still been positive but this last week makes me think it is time to take a break and just follow the games before getting back involved. Will be back probably just the week prior to the All-Star game for February picks.
MY PICKS: 01/01 LA Lakers - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
02/01 Houston Rockets - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
07/01 Boston Celtics + 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
07/01 San Antonio Spurs - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/01 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/01 Chicago Bulls - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/01 Detroit Pistons - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/01 Memphis Grizzlies - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
24/01 Orlando Magic - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 New Orleans Hornets-Houston Rockets Over 200.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 Utah Jazz + 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/01 Miami Heat - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/01 Memphis Grizzlies - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/01 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/01 Utah Jazz - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Season 2013: 30-15-2, + 17.22 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
We have also seen the regularly slow-starting Boston Celtics, while Los Angeles seems to have flipped on its head with the Clippers looking dominant and the Lakers struggling to get things going. The last month will at least seen some positives for the Lakers as they have finally begun to look like the team they were expected to be in the off-season and they are beginning to move up the Western Conference standings.
The biggest disappointments so far have to be the Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks as injuries have taken their toll on their squads and both are going to be in a fight to make the Play Offs if they don't produce a better January.
We are still some six weeks until the All-Star Game, a game that represents a turning point for some of the better teams as they start getting themselves into Play Off mode, but this is still an important time for the not so good teams to at least get some momentum and keep wins ticking along. No one wants to put themselves in a position where they need long winning streaks in March and April to make the Play Offs.
January 1st
Philadelphia 76ers @ LA Lakers Pick: I think this is a good spot for the LA Lakers to finally get back above 0.500 as they can fully focus on the game with a couple of rest days coming up before a 5 game run against some of the best teams in the Western Conference.
The Lakers are on a 6-1 run and they are playing a Philadelphia team that have lost 8 of their last 9 on the road and who have to be a little weary during their current long road trip.
There seems to be too much scoring power in the Lakers Offense at the moment to think the 76ers will be able to contain them in my opinion.
January 2nd
New Orleans Hornets @ Houston Rockets Pick: The New Orleans Hornets put in a big effort last night before coming up short against the Atlanta Hawks and they have struggled in this spot previously. In fact, the Hornets are just 2-6 straight up in the second of back to back nights play and they have lost their last 3 against the spread.
Houston continue to churn out a lot of points in recent games and that makes me believe they will be too good for the Hornets and will be able to pull away in this game.
The spot is a good one for the Rockets who have been as productive at home as the Hornets have been poor on the road.
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I backed against the Brooklyn Nets when they travelled to face one of the Western Conference powerhouses on New Year's Eve and they didn't show anything in that game to prevent me from backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this one.
The Thunder are off a couple of blow out wins and I think there is every chance the Nets are just looking forward to getting back to the East where they will travel to face Washington and then host Sacramento, two much more winnable contests for them.
Oklahoma City look like a team with too much scoring power and while it won't be the 30 point beating the Nets took from San Antonio, I do like the Thunder to cover.
January 7th
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Pick: Being a Knicks fans means it can be hard to let my head rule my heart, but giving up 6 points to Boston who have the clear edge at Point Guard looks too much for me.
Boston have just picked up a couple of positive results in their last couple of games and they have a good record at Madison Square Garden. I think the Celtics will give New York a hard time, particularly with Avery Bradley giving them more defensive energy, and they should be able to keep this close.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: The Spurs have beaten the Hornets twice this season, but only by a combined 9 points yet I do like them to win this one and cover the spread.
New Orleans struggle to score points Offensively and I think San Antonio have enough depth to out-score this Hornets team. It also seems a better spot for San Antonio as they face a team that put in a huge effort to eventually knock off the Dallas Mavericks last time out. The Spurs also have a couple of days to spare before they meet the LA Lakers.
I just see too much scoring from the Spurs against a New Orleans averaging 91.7 points per game.
January 8th
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Miami Heat are probably not going to really pick up the pace until after the All Star Game next month, but they should be fully motivated in this one against the Indiana Pacers.
We saw how chippy the Play Off series between these sides was and I think the Heat are too athletic for the Pacers. The penetration that LeBron and Wade can get should open up the three point range and as long as Miami concentrate defensively, I think they cover this spread, although it could be close throughout.
January 9th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: I am backing the Chicago Bulls in this game as they are well matched against the Bucks and I do think they will get a measure of respect back after blowing a 27 point lead in their loss against Milwaukee most recently.
Chicago have opened up 2013 in good form, winning at Miami, while Milwaukee have an awful record when playing on the second of back to back nights play.
Tiredness could set in for the Bucks as the game goes on and I think the Bulls will do enough to cover the 5.5 points.
January 22nd
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I have taken another couple of weeks off from the NBA picks as it was a tough start to the month and I felt I wasn't capping things correctly.
I am back with a couple of picks today, the first being the Detroit Pistons to cover the spread against the Orlando Magic. Both of these teams have losing records, but momentum is certainly with the Pistons and I think they can roll to another win on their home court and progress beyond 0.500 that they are at the Palace of Auburn Hills.
Confidence is higher in the Pistons locker room I would feel, and Orlando could easily be looking to getting back home where they host Toronto and Detroit in the coming week. With the Pistons moving on to face Chicago and Miami, they should be focused on picking up a win here to build on their recent run ahead of facing two of the better teams in the East.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Firing Scott Skiles seems to have fired up the Milwaukee Bucks and I think they are in a good spot to cover the spread against an under-achieving Philadelphia squad.
The 76ers put in a huge effort at San Antonio yesterday and they have lost their last 7 games when playing the second of back to back nights scheduled, losing those games by 13 points per game.
Milwaukee have been playing inspired basketball under Jim Boylan and they are scoring plenty of points- neither side has another game scheduled until later in the week so should fully concentrate on this one... The difference may be the fatigue, both mental and physical, that Philadelphia could be suffering from their efforts last night and so I like the Bucks to cover.
January 23rd
LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It's been a pretty crappy season for the LA Lakers and it may just get a little worse before it gets better for them as they visit the tough Memphis Grizzlies.
Memphis have struggled Offensively, failing to exceed 85 points in 6 consecutive games, but they are facing a team in disarray and have a real chance to put a marker down for their ambitions in the Western Conference.
The Lakers are completing a road trip here before heading back to the Staples Center and they may just be looking ahead to that time where they can rediscover some semblance of form. Instead, I'll take the Grizzlies to extend their road woes with a win and a cover.
January 24th
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: I am taking the awful Orlando Magic in this one, because the spot looks a good one for the team as they are facing Toronto off a couple of big performances against the LA Lakers and the Miami Heat.
Toronto beat the Lakers and then took the Heat to Overtime last night and there is little doubt that they could be flat in this one against an opponent they won't really care about. The Raptors also return to Canada after this one.
Orlando have been terrible Defensively in their last 14 games so it is a risky proposition, but it looks an appealing spot to ignore.
January 25th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks look the better team in this one and Cleveland could have a slight letdown following a good win over the Boston Celtics.
The Bucks have the back court duo of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis that could win the battle with Kyrie Irving and that could prove to be the difference. Milwaukee have also dominated the recent series between the teams and look worth backing to cover the spread.
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: Both teams have been struggling Defensively while proving more than capable of performing Offensively and that should lead to a high-scoring game between them in this one.
New Orleans are looking to improve Defensively, but that won't be easy against this Houston team that is very productive through James Harden. There is every chance both teams score triple digits in this one and that should lead to the total points being surpassed.
Utah Jazz @ LA Lakers Pick: I like the Utah Jazz to at least keep this game close as the LA Lakers are still trying to get on the same page with one another after yet another 4 game losing streak.
Rumours are that Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant got into some sort of altercation in a team meeting on Wednesday and the All-Star Center is set to miss this game after re-injuring a shoulder in the loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Jazz have also won the last 4 in the series between the teams, including 3 of their last 4 at the Staples Center. There is every chance they can become the latest team to expose the poor Defensive schemes used by the Lakers and keep this close at the very least.
January 27th
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Pick: Miami are definitely playing the better basketball of the two teams at the moment, but that form can go out of the window as this rivalry will inspire Boston to up their own game.
However, the Heat have the added motivation of performing at a high level for Ray Allen, who will be making his first return to Boston since leaving in the off-season, and we have seen how Miami reacted to LeBron James' first game back at Cleveland.
I would not at all be surprised if Allen sinks a couple of big threes to ice the game late on and I like the a motivated Heat in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers Pick: Oklahoma City have looked a little weary as their 6 game road trip comes to an end at the Staples Center, but they have dominated the LA Lakers in recent games in the series and I think they carry that on here.
I know the Lakers looked better in their win against Utah, but this is the team with the best record in the NBA that they are facing and I think their defensive schemes will be pushed to the extremes.
This game is arguably more important for Oklahoma City to prove to the NBA that they are the real deal in the Western Conference and I think the win and cover.
New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have picked up some real momentum in recent games and they have found their Offensive groove, which doesn't bode well for teams taking on one of the better Defensive teams in the NBA.
With that momentum, the Grizzlies should take care of the New Orleans Hornets who have come off the boil following 7 wins from 9 games and they struggled to score points against Houston last time out.
Memphis have dominated the recent series and should be able to win the game and cover the spread.
January 28th
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: I've had a terrible week, but hoping the next two picks will turn things around when it comes to the basketball picks.
I like the Denver Nuggets to cover in this game against Indiana as the Pacers are concluding a four game Western Conference road trip and may be focusing on heading back home.
It is already tough to play at the Pepsi Center against this Denver team that has plenty of Offense and that could be the difference again.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz Pick: I do like the way the Houston Rockets play, but this is a really tough road game for them against the Utah Jazz and I believe the home team will have a little too much and win the game and cover the spread.
The status of Gordon Hayward is a concern for the home team, but they have been very solid in front of their own fans all season, while Houston have recently come off a long losing run and may not be quite ready to win here.
There could be a lot of Play Off implications resting on which of these teams wins the season series, which stands at 1-1 at the moment, but Utah have been solid when hosting Houston in recent games and should be a little too good again.
No more picks this month after a terrible run of form, although my frustrations just boiled over after watching the way Denver screwed the pick... Andre Iguodala decides easy lay ups are no longer for him as the Nuggets are outscored 19-6 in final 6 minutes. It wasn't just the fact he missed easy buckets, he then misses all FOUR free throws only to then score his one free throw with 0.4 seconds left to win the game.
I feel I have lost my edge a little this last week and I am not entirely sure why, although teams blowing big leads have just about got the better of me (Denver and Milwaukee just two off the top of my head that had double digit leads by the middle of the third quarter and won by 1 and lost by 3 respectively).
Some of the picks felt and looked right, but the players failed to perform (how did the Heat lose to Rondo-less Boston and Oklahoma City lose to the terrible LA Lakers?)
The season has still been positive but this last week makes me think it is time to take a break and just follow the games before getting back involved. Will be back probably just the week prior to the All-Star game for February picks.
MY PICKS: 01/01 LA Lakers - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
02/01 Houston Rockets - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
07/01 Boston Celtics + 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
07/01 San Antonio Spurs - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/01 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/01 Chicago Bulls - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/01 Detroit Pistons - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/01 Memphis Grizzlies - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
24/01 Orlando Magic - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 New Orleans Hornets-Houston Rockets Over 200.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 Utah Jazz + 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/01 Miami Heat - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/01 Memphis Grizzlies - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/01 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/01 Utah Jazz - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
January Update: 5-14, - 9.31 Units
December Final: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units
December Final: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units
November Final: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units
Season 2013: 30-15-2, + 17.22 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Midweek Football Picks (January 1-2)
The festive period was a tough time to get a real read on games as managers made changes and tiredness effected some squads a lot more than others. It was a tough couple of rounds to end the month which meant a small loss was made, but it has been a productive season so far so there aren't too many reasons to complain, if any at all.
Manchester City v Stoke City Pick: I know Stoke City have statistically got one of the best defences in Europe (or they did have before conceding three to Southampton at the weekend), but I think those goals conceded to the Saints may have burst their bubble somewhat.
Manchester City have not been the free-scoring side of twelve months ago, but they may just have turned a corner with the four goals they got at Norwich City. City have also not been the all-conquering side at the Etihad Stadium that they were a season ago, but they have usually been too good for Stoke and I think they will likely win this game by a couple of goals at the least.
Tottenham Hotspur v Reading Pick: Tottenham Hotspur have been a lot better away from home than they have been at White Hart Lane and the absence of Gareth Bale will not help matters in this one. However, they are facing a Reading team that has struggled on their own travels and I think Spurs are going to win this game.
The home side have also picked up a couple of clean sheets in recent home games and Reading have really struggled for goals away from home. With Spurs also conceding just 1 goal in their last 4 Premier League games and Reading failing to score in 4 straight away games, the Spurs win to nil looks the best angle on this game.
West Ham United v Norwich City Pick: Both of these sides have just hit a bad patch of form as they meet one another and the three points will be vital for both to ensure they keep a nice buffer between themselves and the relegation trouble brewing below them.
Both sides seem to have similar issues in recent weeks- both look capable of scoring goals but have also struggled defensively and I will look for that to be the case when they meet at Upton Park. Neither team will be that happy with a draw and I see one of them winning this game 2-1 so taking the chance of there being goals in this one looks the best call.
Wigan Athletic v Manchester United Pick: Many Manchester United fans point to the 4-4 draw with Everton last season as the one that ultimately cost us the title, but I think Rene Meulensteen is more correct in suggesting the defeat at Wigan Athletic was the more damaging result.
I expect United to be on high alert as they come back to the DW Stadium for the first time since then and I think there is a chance that United are going to start picking up more clean sheets going forward. They earned one at the weekend against West Brom and the return of Nemanja Vidic does make United that much more solid.
They have conceded just 2 goals against Wigan in 11 previous games against them and I think everyone knows what to expect from Roberto Martinez' side in this one- they will try and pass the ball and I think they will create some chances, but I fancy United to join Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal and become the latest side to win here with a clean sheet to boot.
Southampton v Arsenal Pick: I was struggling to find any real angle with this game except that I liked Arsenal to win it and so I will take the away side in this one.
We saw what Arsenal did to a tired Newcastle United side on Saturday and I think they may be getting Southampton at the right time following their efforts in a 3-3 draw with Stoke City when they were mentally worked over at the end of the game while trying to hang on to the three points.
With only a couple of rest days, there is every chance they will be feeling worn out and Arsenal certainly have the players that can punish them, particularly as they had an extended break during the festive period that other teams did not enjoy.
There are goals in the Arsenal side and I think they will be too strong for Southampton when it is all said and done.
Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Rafa Benitez has definitely helped Chelsea improve defensively in recent games and they have actually picked up clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 games at Stamford Bridge.
I fancy them to get another one in this game in a winning effort as Queens Park Rangers looked like a side that definitely needs some new faces to freshen up their squad if they are to survive in the Premier League this season.
They barely created a chance against Liverpool and I think it may be more of the same in this one. At the prices, the Chelsea win to nil looks like the right call.
Liverpool v Sunderland Pick: Sunderland have shown some tough recent form which gives me enough belief that the prices on Liverpool are far too short in this one. Martin O'Neill has got his side playing a little better in recent weeks and have begun moving up the table.
Liverpool had a terrible home record throughout 2012 and they just shouldn't be as short as they are, even though they have won 3 of their last 4 at Anfield in the Premier League. However, the exception in that time was that shocking 1-3 loss to Aston Villa and I just don't think they should be trusted.
With the prices being as low as they are, it means Sunderland are given a 1.5 head start on the Asian Handicap and I'll look to them to make this a tight, tough contest for Liverpool and not to get beaten comfortably.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 3.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Sunderland + 1.5 Asian Handicap (1 Unit)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 18.84 Units (203 Units Staked, + 9.28 % Yield)
Monday, 31 December 2012
Tennis Picks (January 1st)
The first day of the new season couldn't have gone much better if I am honest as both picks came in, but this is an extremely long season that is just beginning so I wouldn't go overboard about any successes and failures that we see this early on.
Let's see what happens on the second day as tournaments in Australia, New Zealand and the Middle East continue.
Tatsuma Ito v John Millman: These two players are of a similar age but it is Tatsuma Ito that has had considerable more success on the main Tour than his Australian opponent John Millman.
I am surprised that the layers have made Ito the underdog in this contest and think that is mainly down to the fact that Millman has won three rounds to get through to this main draw. Millman did the same last season before being beaten by Santiago Giraldo in the first round here.
Ito has also dominated Millman in previous meetings, winning on all 3 occasions they played each other in the previous season with all the wins coming on a hard court. As the underdog, he has to be worth a small play in this one.
MY PICKS: Tatsuma Ito @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.06 (3 Units Staked, + 102% Yield)
Let's see what happens on the second day as tournaments in Australia, New Zealand and the Middle East continue.
Tatsuma Ito v John Millman: These two players are of a similar age but it is Tatsuma Ito that has had considerable more success on the main Tour than his Australian opponent John Millman.
I am surprised that the layers have made Ito the underdog in this contest and think that is mainly down to the fact that Millman has won three rounds to get through to this main draw. Millman did the same last season before being beaten by Santiago Giraldo in the first round here.
Ito has also dominated Millman in previous meetings, winning on all 3 occasions they played each other in the previous season with all the wins coming on a hard court. As the underdog, he has to be worth a small play in this one.
MY PICKS: Tatsuma Ito @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.06 (3 Units Staked, + 102% Yield)
Tennis Picks (December 31st)
It feels like yesterday we saw the end of the tennis season with both Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych helping the Czech Republic lift the Davis Cup a little under a week after Novak Djokovic had won the End of Year Championships at the O2 Arena.
It seems like the layers have been taking a casual approach to the first tournaments of the 2013 season, with some of the tournaments not having their outright winner prices up. That could be down to late withdrawals, while Andy Murray is the big favourite to retain his title in Brisbane.
All of that meant I am not going to make any outright selections to open this new season, but I will be making my picks from the action as always. At some point before the Australian Open, I will post a thread with things I am looking forward to in the 2013 season and also just updating how the 2012 season went, another profitable season from the tennis picks I made.
Let's hope for another wonderful season of action...
Jarkko Nieminen - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: Both of these players are likely to slip in the Rankings this season as their better days are behind them, but I like Jarkko Nieminen's chances as he has beaten Julien Benneteau in all 5 professional meetings.
Nieminen and Benneteau are similar players, but I do believe the Finnish player has had the better of the meetings because his form doesn't fluctuate as much as Benneteau's can.
Nieminen beat Benneteau in the Final in Sydney last season, winning that match 6-2, 7-5 and I think he has the mental edge to beat the Frenchman again.
Simone Bolelli v Daniel Gimeno-Traver & Victor Troicki v Bjorn Phau Double: The layers have not put up any of the handicap markets for the matches in Doha, so I'll stick these two players in a double.
Both should be too strong for their respective opponents, although I don't trust either player enough to make this more than a unit play. Simone Bolelli and Victor Troicki are the better hard court players than their opponents, although both are capable of playing stinkers. However, their opponents are also guilty of too many unforced errors and beating themselves so I'll chance this double.
MY PICKS: Jarkko Nieminen - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli & Victor Troicki Double @ 2.36 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
It seems like the layers have been taking a casual approach to the first tournaments of the 2013 season, with some of the tournaments not having their outright winner prices up. That could be down to late withdrawals, while Andy Murray is the big favourite to retain his title in Brisbane.
All of that meant I am not going to make any outright selections to open this new season, but I will be making my picks from the action as always. At some point before the Australian Open, I will post a thread with things I am looking forward to in the 2013 season and also just updating how the 2012 season went, another profitable season from the tennis picks I made.
Let's hope for another wonderful season of action...
Jarkko Nieminen - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: Both of these players are likely to slip in the Rankings this season as their better days are behind them, but I like Jarkko Nieminen's chances as he has beaten Julien Benneteau in all 5 professional meetings.
Nieminen and Benneteau are similar players, but I do believe the Finnish player has had the better of the meetings because his form doesn't fluctuate as much as Benneteau's can.
Nieminen beat Benneteau in the Final in Sydney last season, winning that match 6-2, 7-5 and I think he has the mental edge to beat the Frenchman again.
Simone Bolelli v Daniel Gimeno-Traver & Victor Troicki v Bjorn Phau Double: The layers have not put up any of the handicap markets for the matches in Doha, so I'll stick these two players in a double.
Both should be too strong for their respective opponents, although I don't trust either player enough to make this more than a unit play. Simone Bolelli and Victor Troicki are the better hard court players than their opponents, although both are capable of playing stinkers. However, their opponents are also guilty of too many unforced errors and beating themselves so I'll chance this double.
MY PICKS: Jarkko Nieminen - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli & Victor Troicki Double @ 2.36 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
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