College Football Bowl Game Picks Part 2 2020 (December 31-January 2)

The second part of the College Football Bowl Games can be read here.

I will update with selections through the remainder of the post-season and I will then have a separate post for the College Football National Championship Game.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: Most would have expected this to be a season of learning for the Mississippi State Bulldogs as Mike Leach took over as Head Coach and even a place in the post-season has to be considered a success. However the reality is that the Bulldogs have been invited in despite their 3-7 record and in normal seasons that would not have been good enough.

Having the extra Bowl practices could really help the Bulldogs in 2021 when we are all hopeful that things will look a lot different for all of us. Mike Leach has decided he will go with a youth movement which will hopefully pay dividends for the Bulldogs in the years ahead as he shifts the team into the shape Leach will want, although it does mean there are going to be teething problems as we have seen this season.

The competition is not as strong as the Bulldogs may see on a week to week basis in the SEC, but the Tulsa Golden Hurricane need to be given a lot of respect. They were only narrowly beaten in the American Athletic Championship Game and Tulsa have overachieved throughout 2020 and will be highly motivated to take a big scalp on Thursday.

Much is going to come down to the Mississippi State Offensive side of the ball as they will be going up against a very strong Tulsa Defense. If the 'Air Raid' Offense is not able to have the success they are used to in this system, the Golden Hurricane should be very comfortable in their bid to win a Bowl Game for the first time in four years.

It has been a strong year for Tulsa's Defensive unit although they do have to respect the fact they are going up against a SEC Offense in this one. The Offense run by Mike Leach has always tended to struggle to run the ball and instead focusing on the pass, but Mississippi State will be looking for Will Rogers to continue his development at Quarter Back against a Tulsa Secondary which has made some very impressive plays in the passing game.

There sounds like there will be quite a bit of wind in Texas on Thursday too which may make it more difficult to throw the ball so Rogers will have to be aware of turnovers, especially as Interceptions have been an issue for the Bulldogs. The Mississippi State Offensive Line have also had one or two issues in pass protection which Tulsa will be looking to exploit and there is a feeling that the Golden Hurricane can stall some drives.

A bigger question about the Golden Hurricane is whether they have enough Offensively to compete with a SEC Defensive unit even if you have faith in their own Defense being strong enough to contain the Bulldogs. Unlike their counterparts, I do think the Tulsa Offensive Line will be able to establish the run and that will be important as they look to move the ball down the field.

Finding balance Offensively will give the Golden Hurricane confidence and they should be able to have some success throwing against this Mississippi State Secondary. A motivation to play in Texas will really appeal to many on the Tulsa roster and I do think they can win this as a narrow favourite.

The Golden Hurricane have a very strong record in Bowl Games and I do think this is a team who have worked so hard to be here that they will want to prove themselves. Tulsa are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the favourite and I like the Golden Hurricane to come through in this one.

San Jose State Spartans vs Ball State Cardinals Pick: Two teams who have been built in a similar way have achieved big successes already in 2020 and will be looking to round things off with a big time Bowl win. While some teams in College Football are unconcerned about the post-season if they don't make the College Football PlayOffs, teams like the Ball State Cardinals and San Jose State Spartans are all about reaching the post-season and having the players rewarded with a Bowl appearance.

Things have bene much better than that for both the Cardinals and Spartans in 2020 as both are heading into this Bowl Game off upset wins in their Conference Championship Games. Both were big underdogs against the Buffalo Bulls and Boise State Broncos respectively, but winning the Championship and looking to complete fantastic seasons will bring plenty of motivation to the table.

San Jose State are looking for an unbeaten season, while the Ball State Cardinals are 6-1 in 2020 and I do think there will be a confidence that can't be underestimated.

Both teams have been very strong Offensively which is going to produce a very good game, although the difference on the day looks to be the Spartans Defensive Line.

The Cardinals have been struggling to run the ball in their most recent games and I do think the San Jose State Defensive Line will be able to at least shut down that aspect of the Ball State Offense. Doing so will force the Cardinals to rely on the pass, but the Offensive Line have also had issues when it comes to giving the Quarter Back enough time to make the throws down the field and I do think San Jose State can at least rattle Drew Plitt when he is forced to drop back and pass the ball.

Even then I do think Plitt will have some successes and it will at least give Ball State the chance to be competitive.

They will have to move the ball if they are going to stay in this one because they are facing a balanced Spartans Offensive unit which should be able to have their way with the Ball State Defense. Unlike the Cardinals, San Jose State are expected to be able to establish the run and rip off some big gains against the Ball State Defensive Line and that will open things up for Nick Starkel who has found a home in San Jose.

Nick Starkel has produced some massive numbers throughout 2020 in leading the Spartans to a 7-0 record and he should be given plenty of time to expose the Ball State Secondary. With the ball being run, San Jose State should remain in front of the sticks and that will open up the playbook for Starkel who will be able to hit some big plays.

He should be aware of the Ball State tendency to bend Defensively, but also create Interceptions, but I think the Quarter Back has played well enough to believe he can help San Jose State score enough points to win this game.

The favourites should be much more comfortable in the weather compared with Ball State, especially at this time of the year, and that gives the unbeaten team another edge.

Ball State have been a very good underdog to back under Head Coach Mike Neu and I have to respect that, but San Jose State are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one games against a team with a winning record. With a more balanced Offense and with the weather conditions more suited to the Spartans, I think San Jose State will pull away for a solid looking win in this Bowl Game.

Army Black Knights vs West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: There was some real surprise when the Bowl selections were announced that a 9-2 Army Black Knights had not been offered a chance to play in the post-season. Covid-19 has actually opened the door for the Black Knights when the Tennessee Volunteers decided they needed to withdraw having had an outbreak in the team, and I do think Army are going to be highly motivated for this one to prove a point.

They won't have an easy game in front of them against the West Virginia Mountaineers who need a win to finish with a winning record. The Mountaineers should have had enough preparation time to get ready to face the triple option Offense that the Black Knights like to run, although it will be a challenge for any team facing this team.

The West Virginia Mountaineers Defensive Line has struggled to clamp down on the run down the stretch and I do think the Black Knights will be comfortable in the conditions which is going to mean a lot of running the ball. Like many teams who have run this kind of Offense, the Black Knights have not really had a lot of success throwing the ball with the main ambition to wear down teams on the ground, but I do think they will have some joy in this one.

It is a tough task for the Mountaineers whose Defensive unit has actually been better defending the pass than they have in controlling the run. With that in mind I do think Army will be able to move the chains, although they will also have to respect the fact that West Virginia have played well Defensively for large parts of the 2020 season.

Matching up poorly on the Defensive side of the ball also factors into the West Virginia Offensive play and I think that is why this feels like a very big spread for the favourite to cover. The Mountaineers have gotten plenty from Quarter Back Jarret Doege, but he will be facing a very strong Army Secondary and it looks like it is going to be a game played in windy and wet conditions which will make it very hard to throw the ball with any kind of consistency.

Instead the focus for the Offensive Line is going to be in establishing the run and West Virginia may have a touch more success in this game than they have for much of the season. In recent games the Mountaineers have not really opened the kind of holes they would have liked up front, but the Army Defensive Line has not played as well as the Secondary and the Mountaineers should be able to score some points too.

However, they are not a team who will light up the scoreboard and I think that makes this likely to be a low-scoring game. That makes the points being given to the underdog look all the more appealing.

The Mountaineers are 1-9 against the spread in their last ten games as a favourite in a game being played on neutral field. They have also failed to cover in their last seven games as the favourite in a Bowl Game.

Army do not have the best recent record as the underdog in games, but I think they can run the ball well enough to control the clock and keep this one close.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Some will question whether the Notre Dame Fighting Irish deserve their place in the College Football PlayOffs after being blown away by the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish barely held onto the Number 4 Seed, but they are a considerable underdog in this Semi Final on New Year's Day.

That isn't a big surprise if anyone had seen the performance in the Championship Game agains the Tigers that seemed to suggest Notre Dame are some way away from being one of the top teams in the nation despite the record. However I don't think it is ever wise to base an opinion on a team on one game and the Fighting Irish were unbeaten in the regular season which included a win over the Tigers, albeit it was a Clemson team missing Trevor Lawrence.

Now the challenge looks a very big one in front of Notre Dame as they get set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide who won the SEC Championship with an unbeaten record, although the Championship Game was closer than some anticipated. Even then it has been a rare occasion in 2020 when the Crimson Tide have been pushed and a balanced Offensive unit is going to be very difficult to slow down.

There is a balance on this side of the ball which makes it difficult to know how Clemson can stop them and especially if the Fighting Irish have not improved on the line on scrimmage. In their most recent games the Notre Dame Defensive Line have given up some huge plays on the ground and I have little reason to believe things will change when facing this Alabama Offensive Line.

Najee Harris might be the latest Alabama Running Back ready to make an impact at the next level and I expect him to put the Crimson Tide in front of the sticks which will make it very difficult for the Notre Dame Defensive unit to shut things down. Mac Jones has been brilliant at Quarter Back and is in the Heisman Trophy contention, and life becomes very comfortable for him if he is able to hand the ball off and see Harris rip off some big gains.

I expect Mac Jones to have considerable success throwing against the Fighting Irish Secondary while he has also been well protected so should have a strong outing.

Over the course of the season the Fighting Irish have impressed on this side of the ball, but the feeling is that they are going to have do more in what is likely going to be a shoot out at best. While the Fighting Irish can't expect to shut down the Alabama Crimson Tide, they will be looking for Ian Book to have a bounce back outing after what was a sub-par effort from the entire Offense in their defeat to the Clemson Tigers.

Unlike his counterpart, Ian Book is not likely to receive the same kind of support from the run as Alabama's Defensive Line have really clamped down on opponents up front. That will lead to plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back if the Notre Dame Fighting Irish fall behind in this one and I am not sure there is enough talent to challenge the Crimson Tide.

We have seen Florida and Mississippi have success against the Alabama Secondary, but those games have been few and far between and Ian Book has not really led the same Offensive firepower as those two teams. I do think he can make some throws, but Alabama's Secondary will likely be helped by the significant pass rush generated up front which should be able to breakthrough the Notre Dame Offensive Line whenever Ian Book steps back to throw.

If the Fighting Irish are not able to run the ball as they would like, Ian Book could be under intense pressure through much of the game and that should lead to a big Alabama win as turnovers and stalled drives take over.

Notre Dame have some solid numbers, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games as an underdog in a Bowl Game. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and I think Alabama will find a way to cover a big number with their Offensive power producing the differential on the day.

Clemson Tigers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: These teams met in the College Football PlayOffs last year and it ended up with a narrow win for the Clemson Tigers who needed a late Interception to confirm the win over the Ohio State Buckeyes. In that game the Tigers were a narrow favourite, but the spread is bigger this time and it may have something to do with the impressive dismantling of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game.

That victory showed the power of the Tigers and the layers may also be concerned with the lack of games that the Ohio State Buckeyes have played in 2020. While they remained unbeaten, Dabo Swinney was the first to mention the fact that the Buckeyes have not experienced the same kind of hardships as other teams in College Football have faced and his Ranking of the Buckeyes outside of the top ten will be motivation for the underdog.

However I think the point is a valid one because the Buckeyes have not impressed as much as some of the other teams that were chasing the PlayOff places. I would have had the Texas A&M Aggies Ranked above the Ohio State Buckeyes on their overall season performances and the fact the sole loss came to the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the Buckeyes are here and they will feel they have something to prove.

Justin Fields has not been at his best and his battle against Trevor Lawrence is not really going to impact the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft as it may have done before the season began. Now it feels like Lawrence is the clear top choice, but that should serve as inspiration to Fields to show he belongs at the next level and is as good as any other Quarter Back in College Football.

The Quarter Back has struggled to avoid mistakes in the passing game in recent games and I do think Justin Fields is going to have his problems here. For the main part he has been able to lean on the running game to put himself in front of the sticks, but Fields is not likely to have that help here, at least not consistently. The Clemson Defensive Line has prided itself on being able to stop the run and they showed how much they have learned in their defeat of the Fighting Irish having been destroyed by the ground game when those teams met earlier in the season.

If the Tigers Defensive Line can control the line of scrimmage they will feel very confident in being able to slow down the entire Buckeyes Offense, although Ohio State's Offensive Line have bullied most teams they have faced. That will be so important for Justin Fields who has struggled to connect in the passing game as he would have liked, while the Offensive Line has been struggling in pass protection and is likely to be under intense pressure from the Clemson pass rush every time the Buckeyes get behind the chains.

Running the ball is likely going to be a tough task for the Clemson Tigers too, although they will benefit from the Quarter Back who is respected enough to maybe have teams pull players from the line of scrimmage to protect the Secondary. I do think Ohio State will be confident in their Defensive Line and will feel they can at least limit the damage done by Travis Etienne, but stopping Trevor Lawrence looks like it may be beyond this Secondary.

All season it has been seen that it is possible to throw the ball against the Buckeyes and in recent games there hasn't been much of a change in that regard. The fact that a generational talent like Trevor Lawrence will be doing that here will surely see Clemson pile up some big yards through the air and especially as the Quarter Back has been well protected.

He will have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Buckeyes can generate, but I like the Clemson Tigers to prove a point here and produce a big win. You know the Head Coach will be wanting to do that and Clemson have covered in the three previous meetings between these schools since 2014.

Dabo Swinney really does coach the Tigers up when it comes to Bowl Game results and I think that is key here. The Buckeyes are a very good underdog, but they were beaten in that spot by Clemson last season and I think they will cover here.

MY PICKS: Tulsa Golden Hurricane + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

San Jose State Spartans - 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Army Black Knights + 8.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 20 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2017 (January 1st)

Happy New Year to one and all.

As you can imagine, the last few days have been very time consuming, but in a positive way, as I spent the final few days of 2016 with loved ones. Hopefully you all did the same and enjoyed the moments as well as put together some achievable New Year Resolutions.

Week 17 of the NFL season is with us on the opening day of the 2017 calendar year and most of the Play Off issues have been resolved. That doesn't mean there are only dead rubbers to be played though and I am looking to finish the regular season with some positive results to take into the Play Offs which will begin with Wild Card Weekend in the second week of the new year.

There isn't much more NFL Football to come before the seven month wait for the 2017 season to begin, but hopefully there is plenty of drama and memorable games to be played on the way to deciding the Super Bowl winner.


With the lack of time for this post to be produced, I am going to break down some of the bigger picks I have this week and then offer the picks for the other games in the 'MY PICKS' section below.


New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The Georgia Dome will be replaced with a brand new Stadium for the Atlanta Falcons, but this will not be the final NFL game to be played here after the NFC South was secured. The question remaining for the Atlanta Falcons is can they beat the New Orleans Saints, or hope Seattle fail to do the same against the San Francisco 49ers, to secure the Number 2 Seed in the NFC and ensure a bye through to the Divisional Round of the Play Offs?

The Falcons head into Week 17 as a big favourite to beat the New Orleans Saints who have had another year of underachievement even if there were some positive signs. Sean Payton's future as Head Coach remains up in the air with some linking him to a trade to the Los Angeles Rams, while Drew Brees will be another year older going into the 2017 season even if signs of regression are not really there.

The Saints Offense does tend to take care of itself, but the Defensive unit have made improvements after really bottoming out over the last two years. A lot of Draft picks have been invested in this unit and they have shown they can be better than advertised, although the Defense is in for a big test against one of the best Offenses in the NFL.

Matt Ryan and the passing game receives plenty of the plaudits, but Atlanta have the balance of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman coming out of the backfield and running the ball effectively to make them dangerous. Recent games have seen New Orleans just struggle at the Defensive Line position to slow the run so both Freeman and Coleman could have big games for the home team.

That will only open things up for Ryan even if Julio Jones has been a little limited in recent games. Freeman and Coleman are great safety blankets in the passing game with an ability to make plenty of yards after the catch, and Ryan has been very smart when throwing the ball to avoid Interceptions in recent games. The Falcons should move the ball with some consistency, although New Orleans will produce a pass rush that could have some success if they are able to get the Falcons in obvious passing situations from third and long.

Despite the injuries to a couple of key Defensive players, Atlanta's Defensive unit have been improved over the course of the season. They managed to shut down Carolina in Week 16, although that might have had a lot to do with the short week the Panthers were on, while this has to be considered a real litmus test of what the Falcons are able to do on that side of the ball.

Drew Brees is always the focal point of the New Orleans Offense, but Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower have been huge helps by establishing the run. That gives Brees a little more time to pick his passes and the Quarter Back has been in very good form over the last couple of starts. Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas offer Brees a strong Receiving corps and I do think he will have a strong statistical game, but has to avoid the Interceptions that have hurt the Saints at times.

If Brees can avoid the turnovers, this could be a shoot out and that makes this number of points very attractive. The underdog is 6-0 against the spread in the last six in this series and the pressure is all on the home team to win and lock up the Number 2 Seed. The Saints should be focused in a bid to avoid a Divisional rivals' season and I will take the points in Week 17.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: When you saw some of the injuries that the Play Off chasing teams had in Week 16, it is no surprise that some of those who have locked up their spot in the post-season have decided to play their back ups in Week 17. One of those is not the New York Giants though despite already having a hold on the Number 5 Seed in the NFC and I think that has a lot to do with the fact they were beaten in Week 16 at the Philadelphia Eagles.

It looks like Ben McAdoo has made it clear that his starters will play through the game in Week 17 at the hated Washington Redskins who are desperate to make it back to the Play Offs. The Redskins know their situation very well in that a win will put them into the Number 6 Seed in the NFC unless the Green Bay-Detroit game is a tie later in the evening, while a loss will rule them out.

That looks a key reason why the Washington Redskins are favoured as much as they are and I like the New York Giants to keep this closer than the spread. There has been enough interest in the road underdog to move this spread back down to the key number 7, but I still like the Giants in this spot to at least build some momentum to go into the Wild Card Play Off game next weekend.

That doesn't necessarily mean I believe the Giants will win the game, but I think they will be desperate to do that despite already locking up a Play Off place. Eli Manning has usually played his best in January and the Giants will be looking to their two time Super Bowl winning Quarter Back to show signs of that having been inconsistent in recent weeks.

The Manning to Odell Beckham combination continues to work very well, but Washington can shadow one of the better Receivers in the NFL with Josh Norman and hope the latter can at least limit the damage OBJ can do. This Washington Secondary have given up some big numbers in recent games, but they have shown they can turn the ball over and have a decent pass rush which may put the pressure on Manning to make the bad throws he has been guilty of over the last month.

Not having a strong running game has hurt the Giants Offense too as they have become predictable or stuck in third and long too often. That has seen Manning make some poor throws but this Washington Defense have given up some big numbers and that gives the Giants to at least stay with them.

It is actually the New York Giants Defense that should be given credit for carrying this team to the Play Offs rather than the Offense and most of the key players will be starting this one. They have been strong at the line of scrimmage and will be looking to reduce the threat Rob Kelley has given the Redskins and then see if Kirk Cousins has the confidence to win this game for Washington with his arm.

The lack of a pass rush is a problem for the Giants and that should mean Cousins has time to make his plays especially with Jordan Reed looking likely to suit up. Reed has been limited by an arm injury, but Washington are hoping the big Tight End is more than a decoy in this one.

That will give Cousins another big target and I think Washington will have some success as Janoris Jenkins won't be risked as the Number 1 Corner for the New York Giants. I expect the Redskins to move the ball, but I also think the Giants can do the same and that makes the point very appealing.

The underdog is 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 meetings and the Giants are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 against Washington. I will take the points in this game.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The San Francisco 49ers would love nothing more than to beat the Seattle Seahawks and force their rival NFC West Division winners to play on Wild Card Weekend. However there are also some self-interest concerns for the 49ers who still have a chance to finish with the Number 1 Draft Pick although that will have been decided earlier in the day if the Cleveland Browns lose as expected at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

A third win of the season might be a going away present from Chip Kelly who is expected to be replaced as the Head Coach after one season with the 49ers. The General Manager Trent Baalke is also expected to be moved on on 'Black Monday' and it will be interesting to see how the players react to the rumours in their final home game of the season after snapping a 13 game losing run in Week 16.

The talent differential might mean that doesn't matter too much with the Seattle Seahawks looking much better than the 49ers and also trying to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. That loss has given the Atlanta Falcons the inside track to the Number 2 Seed in the NFC and would mean Seattle have to play a home Play Off game next week in the Wild Card Round.

It has been an inconsistent month for the Seahawks who looked to be heading into the Play Offs as the biggest threat in the NFC. However they have suffered injuries to Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor which has ended the season for the former and at least limited the latter. Losing those two Safeties means there is more space to throw against the 'Legion of Boom' especially with the Seahawks struggling for a consistent pass rush.

There have been signs the return of Michael Bennett has given Seattle more of a push up front and they should get the better of the San Francisco Offensive Line and pressurise Colin Kaepernick at Quarter Back. I am not sure Kaepernick is going to expose the problems in the Seattle Secondary and he still has a tendency to stare down Receivers which will give Seattle a chance to turn the ball over.

Carlos Hyde has been ruled out for the rest of the season and possibly early into the 2017 season, but San Francisco are not going to find it easy to run the ball anyway. It could mean points are at a premium for the San Francisco 49ers which will give Seattle the chance to cover a big number on the road.

The San Francisco rushing Defense has been very poor for much of the season and Seattle should be able to expose those holes even if they have not run the ball as well as they would have liked. Thomas Rawls is back and could find more spaces, while Russell Wilson is always a threat to run the ball and especially more so behind an Offensive Line which hasn't been able to protect their Quarter Back.

San Francisco have been able to find an effective pass rush and could stall some drives by getting to Wilson, but it will be difficult for them to do that throughout the afternoon. The Seattle Seahawks can make some big plays in this one throwing the ball though and I think their Defensive unit will limit what the 49ers can produce.

The 49ers players should be motivated to play one last time for Chip Kelly having played hard through the season even if their talent has not quite been able to produce more wins. However I think the Seahawks are going to be too good on both sides of the ball and can win this big. The Seahawks have won by 16 and 17 points in their last couple of visits to the 49ers and I will back them to cover the number in this one.


Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is very likely to be the final game in San Diego for the Chargers as they potentially decide to move to Los Angeles in the coming weeks and I am not sure the fans are going to be behind them. This has been a disappointing season for the Chargers which has collapsed on itself through some bad turnovers and misfortunes.

They now face the Kansas City Chiefs who still have hopes of not only winning the AFC West, but finishing with the Number 2 Seed in the Conference and the bye week it will give them in the Play Offs. There is some pressure on the Chiefs because a Miami Dolphins win earlier in Week 17 would mean the Chiefs would fall to the Number 6 Seed in the Play Offs if they lose this game and that means a visit to the dangerous Pittsburgh Steelers next week.

The home loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 is going to sting for the Chiefs if they are going to finish as one of the Wild Card teams in the AFC. However I do think they can win the AFC West and finish with the Number 2 Seed and I do think the Chiefs will play their part in the scenario by winning this game on the road in San Diego.

Kansas City are one of the more unappealing teams in the NFL to watch because they play a very cautious style, but that has worked for them more often than not. They should be able to run the ball effectively which will keep the Offense in the favoured third and manageable spots on the field and that helps Alex Smith make his plays from the Quarter Back position.

However the Chiefs have found a deep threat in Tyreek Hill which has given the Offense a new look, although Hill is more than capable of being lined up in a number of positions and take the ball to the house. The San Diego Defensive unit is under-rated as they have been able to get a huge pass rush together, but motivation has to be a question mark with the season coming to an end and some big decisions to be made about the future of the franchise.

It is those motivations that could also see the Kansas City Defensive unit continue their fine success of turning the ball over with Philip Rivers being guilty of too many of those in recent weeks. Losing to the Cleveland Browns, who had been winless, has to have affected the confidence of this team and the Chargers might just struggle Offensively to put together too many scoring drives.

The Chargers have been really struggling to run the ball without Melvin Gordon and that is going to play into Kansas City's hands as they are much better at stopping the pass than the run. Forcing Rivers into third and long has been a disaster for the Quarter Back and the Offense in general and this Chiefs Secondary have found a way to stop the pass even with the pass rush floundering at times.

Opposing Rivers as the underdog has been tough throughout his career because he can raise his game and really produce some top performances even when the supporting cast have been lacking. However the Chiefs are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in San Diego and I think the motivation question marks for the home team is a concern.

The Chiefs also play the AFC West rivals well and I will look for them to win this one and cover the number in Week 17.


Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The TV companies flexed the Green Bay Packers trip to the Detroit Lions into the late Sunday Night Football and no one would have been surprised by that. The NFC North and likely Number 4 Seed in the Conference is up for grabs with only a tie being enough to send both the Lions and Packers into the Play Offs.

The Lions can only blame themselves for their current predicament having lost back to back road games at the New York Giants and already secured Dallas Cowboys. Winning either would have been enough for the Number 6 Seed in the NFC already, but now they face the Green Bay Packers who have won five in a row and look to be a real contender to go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Aaron Rodgers looks far healthier than earlier in the season and more than counterpart Matthew Stafford who has been dealing with a finger issue that has to have contributed to his poor performances in recent games. Rodgers has looked back to his elite best, but importantly his Receivers have found a way to break free in coverage and the Green Bay Packers have discovered a running game that has been absent for much of the season.

Ty Montgomery can be thanked for that and the Packers have to be confident they can run the ball against this Lions Defensive Line which has looked worn down of late. Doing that means the balance for Rodgers to find the big plays downfield and the Quarter Back has been well protected and given the time to do that. With the Lions struggling for an effective pass rush, this looks a game where the Packers can move the chains consistently for much of the evening inside Dome conditions.

The Detroit Secondary have played well, but they will struggle with Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams both finding themselves open and it will be up to Matt Stafford to try and keep the Lions with Green Bay. That is partly because the Lions have struggled to run the ball consistently all season and left the pressure on their Quarter Back and even the struggles of the Green Bay Defensive Line might not be enough to ignite the Lions on the ground.

Stafford wouldn't have a bad match up if he was fully healthy, but he has thrown a few bad passes of late and this Packers Secondary have begun to turn the ball over to cover their own problems. The Packers are getting healthier on this side of the ball and while Stafford will have some successes, there is every chance Green Bay create extra possessions for Rodgers and the Offense to pull away from Detroit.

The Lions Offensive Line has had a few issues in protection and that is another area where Green Bay have come alive in recent games. Clay Matthews has looked as healthy as any point this season and I think the Packers will be too good on both sides of the ball for the hosts who have had their confidence dented in consecutive losses.

The favourite is now 8-1 against the spread in the last nine in this series and Green Bay are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11. I think they will do enough to win this game and also cover the number as Green Bay get set to host a Wild Card Play Off game next weekend.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

New Year's Day Football Picks 2015 (January 1st)

Time doesn't stop for anyone, but I can't be the only person that has seen the 2014 calendar year zip right past faster than the click of your fingers.

Just like that, I am writing a small post in preparation for the New Year's Day Premier League games where there is a full round of games ahead of the FA Cup Third Round 'weekend'. I put that in inverted commas simply because the Third Round has been spread from Friday through to Tuesday which takes away something from one of the most popular weekends of the domestic season.


January has four rounds of League fixtures in England, while the top European Leagues return to action too. The rest of the month sees the first domestic Cup Final of the season set up once the two legged League Cup Semi Finals are completed, while the FA Cup will have reached the Fifth Round by the end of the month.

Usually this is the slowest month of the season after the Christmas holidays, but there is plenty of top football to look forward to with the importance of games increasing on a week by week basis.


Stoke City v Manchester United Pick: 2014 ended in a much more positive manner for Manchester United than it started and the confidence in the side has improved markedly in that time. The fans are feeling like 2015 is going to be a much better season now that David Moyes is no longer in charge and they have every chance of getting the New Year off to the perfect start with a victory at Stoke City.

However, it is going to be more than a little test at the Brittania Stadium considering Stoke City's recent form which has seen them only lose against Chelsea over the last month. Back to back wins over Everton and West Brom will have built some confidence and this ground is regularly a tough one to visit.

This season has been a different story though with 4 out of 9 visitors to Stoke leaving with the three points and Manchester United have certainly created enough chances in recent games to think they can do the same. United will need to be much more clinical then they were at Tottenham Hotspur when they could have had as many as three goals by half time with a little more fortune and composure when the chances came their way.

It is hard to imagine Robin Van Persie, Radamel Falcao, Juan Mata and Wayne Rooney having another off day in front of goal, although the defence is still a concern even with injuries beginning to clear up. While Manchester United should create problems for a Stoke City team that has conceded twice in games against Arsenal and Chelsea at the Brittania Stadium in recent games, I also think Stoke are going to have some joy with balls into the box for the likes of Peter Crouch.

The goals might not have come at White Hart Lane, but Manchester United games have generally seen them going in and I expect that to return to the fore on Thursday. Stoke City have both scored and conceded plenty of goals in recent games at the Brittania Stadium and I wouldn't be surprised if both teams hit the net in this one and neither is likely to sit back and settle for a draw.


Liverpool v Leicester City Pick: The decision to move Raheem Sterling up front and allow the likes of Adam Lallana and Philippe Coutinho to play behind him has sparked something from Liverpool and they produced their best performance of the season at Anfield on Monday Night Football. Dismissing Swansea as comfortably as they did should give Liverpool some confidence and they are only 5 points off a Champions League place despite a very inconsistent season.

Facing Leicester City at Anfield should give Liverpool a real chance of making it three wins in a row and that kind of momentum that was sparked by the side at the beginning of the 2014 calendar year. With Daniel Sturridge still on the road back to fitness, Brendan Rodgers will believe his side are capable of putting together a string of wins that can lead to another tilt at the Champions League and the manager would expect to win this game.

Leicester City did beat Hull City on Sunday to end a long wait for a win and also end a long losing run away from home, but Liverpool will be a different test than the goal-shy Hull side. Nigel Pearson's men have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 away games and they might find it hard to stay with the clever movement that Liverpool can produce up front.

Any similarities to the performance produced against Swansea should see Liverpool too strong for Leicester in this game, even with one less day of rest between games than their visitors. Over the last few weeks, Liverpool have really begun to create chances in their games and they should have those in this game too against a defence that has conceded plenty of goals on their travels.

If they show the same level of clinical finishing and up-tempo attacking play as they did on Monday night, Liverpool should win this by a couple of goals at least.


Queens Park Rangers v Swansea Pick: It was a disappointing goalless draw that Queens Park Rangers had to settle for in their last game at home against Crystal Palace, but I think they can bounce back in this game if Swansea are as poor defensively as they were in their loss at Liverpool.

Harry Redknapp has got the best out of his QPR side at Loftus Road and games like this, even though Swansea are in the top half of the Premier League table, are very important for Rangers to win if they want to avoid the drop. They have been very good at home all season and have caused problems for many of their visitors over the last couple of months and they have an attacking threat that will give Swansea issues to deal with.

However, I have to have a respect for the likes of Wilfried Bony, Gylfi Sigurdsson and the way Garry Monk has his team earning results this season. On the other hand, Swansea are not as good on their travels as they have been at the Liberty Stadium and they don't look the right favourite in this game.

Swansea have lost 5 of their 9 away games in the Premier League and I think QPR are a big price to put another notch in the loss column for them in this game. I'll keep stakes small though after Rangers lost some momentum at home with the draw against Palace on Sunday, but the home price is still too hard to ignore.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: This is a big game for both Ronald Koeman and Arsene Wenger as they look to get their sides in a position to challenge for the top four in the second half of the season. Arsenal have been there, done that regularly over the last twenty years and that experience is likely to prove critical down the stretch, especially if Southampton continue to struggle against the best teams in the Premier League.

Southampton have failed to beat Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea at St Mary's this season and even the draw with the current leaders of the Premier League was a touch fortunate. The players had to put in a huge effort in that game, especially in the second half, and I do wonder if Southampton will have enough time to be fully ready for this game on New Year's Day.

There is pace up front that will cause Arsenal some problems, but Southampton have to find a way to be a little more clinical against the best teams and also to try and dictate the tempo in these games. To be fair to Koeman, Southampton have played well against teams outside of the top two and were unfortunate to lose at the Emirates Stadium as well as the home game against Manchester United.

A similar performance to the one they produced against Manchester United will give Southampton a real chance of earning a surprise win in this one, although they will also have trouble coping with the strength of the Arsenal attack. Laurent Koscielny's return to the Arsenal defence will help their cause, but this looks another game that should produce goals at both ends.

The last 4 Arsenal away games have all produced at least three goals, while Southampton had seen 3 in a row also do the same before the 1-1 draw with Chelsea which had enough chances for another goal. The over 2.5 goals option is at odds against and I do think that looks a little big in this game.


West Ham United v West Brom Pick: I don't think there was any surprise when West Brom announced that they had parted ways with Alan Irvine as the side continues to slide down the Premier League table. Most seem to suggest that Irvine is a really nice man and a decent Coach, but that isn't enough to become a strong manager in a tough environment like the Premier League, although he could have learned from his experiences.

For now, West Brom will head to Upton Park without a leader at the helm and it will say a lot about these players as to how much desire they show in the face of things going wrong. West Brom have struggled for goals and this looks a very tough game for them to pick themselves up after losing 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League.

While the side did cause some problems for Stoke City, it was the lack of composure up front that cost West Brom the chance to get anything from that game and they might be under more pressure here.

West Ham United might have had their confidence dented by their two League defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal, but they had enough chances in the latter game against the Gunners to believe they can get back to winning ways. The side have played some attractive football and can put a lot of pressure on a team like West Brom that might not be up for the battle in a tough venue.

If West Ham can put recent defeats to the back of their mind, they should prove to be too strong for West Brom and can score the goals to grab the three points. If the home side score twice, I think it will be too much for West Brom to get a result in this one and I will back West Ham to win the game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: If you had hit the pause button just before some of the chances that were going to be created at White Hart Lane on Sunday, I am pretty sure most would have expected to see the net bulge soon after the shot/header had been taken. There must have been some huge forcefield in front of both goals during the Tottenham Hotspur game with Manchester United that prevented that ending up being a high-scoring game, but the chances were there for that to happen.

When Chelsea visit Spurs on New Year's Day, they will also bring some forwards that are capable of finishing the opportunities that come their way and I can see the away side posing some real problems. The pace of Eden Hazard and the passing of Cesc Fabregas creates space for Diego Costa and it would be something of a surprise if Tottenham Hotspur continue to get away with some shoddy defending they have produced.

On the other hand, I don't believe Chelsea are worthy of being such a short favourite to win considering recent results on their travels. There is plenty of quality in the Chelsea team, but their defence doesn't seem to be as strong when away from Stamford Bridge and Harry Kane has been in the kind of form where he only needs half a sight of goal to put the ball into the back of the net.

Tottenham Hotspur also have a decent home record against Chelsea in recent seasons, but I wouldn't be confident in backing them to take something from this game. My reasons are that they seem to have been getting a lot of luck for some of their results in recent weeks and even losing a bit of that will give the edge to Chelsea, who certainly have the players to take advantage.

Both teams should have their chances and I won't be surprised if both score with 1-1 being the predominant score in recent games at White Hart Lane between these two teams. In fact, 3 of the last 4 Premier League games at this ground between Spurs and Chelsea have ended 1-1, but I think the chances that are likely to be created will separate the teams and find a winner.

Therefore, I am backing over 2.5 goals in this game without the confidence of really knowing which team will win- Chelsea are more likely, but Spurs could ride their luck yet again and instead I will simply stick with the belief that there will be goals in the late kick off.

MY PICKS: Stoke City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Southampton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Ham United to Win @ 1.90 Stan James (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur- Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 70-98-1, - 18.88 Units (289 Units Staked, - 6.53% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

New Year's Day Football Picks 2014 (January 1st)

And just like that, we have reached 2014 and the start of what could be a very strong year for football fans throughout the world. Of course, the big event during the course of the year is going to be the World Cup in Brazil that will begin in June, but the Premier League looks like it will be a fascinating race with a number of teams all expecting to challenge.

The relegation battle is no less exciting thanks to a positive Christmas showing for the teams that had entered the festive period in the bottom three.

Of course, this is a good time for people to predict what they think will happen over the next five months of the domestic and European seasons and I am going to follow that trend:

Premier League Winner: Manchester City- Away form looks to be improving and I think they have too much quality in the squad compared with their rivals.

Top Four: Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea- same four as last season, but I think Liverpool will push teams all the way and Tottenham Hotspur could be improved with the attacking philosophy that Tim Sherwood seems to be showing.

Relegation: Sunderland, Cardiff City and Crystal Palace- this looks a very close race and I have just gone with Sunderland to continue the trend of bottom at Christmas and go down that has been in force during the Premier League years. I also predict Cardiff City with the management issues, and Crystal Palace who I don't believe have the requisite quality now although that could change after the January transfer window comes to a close.

League Cup: Manchester City- looks like being a Final between Manchester City and Manchester United after they were kept apart in the Semi Finals.

FA Cup: Manchester United- it has been ten years since Manchester United last won this competition, it is the one that David Moyes came closest to winning as manager of Everton and United begin with a home game in the Third Round. The draw is critical, but this could be the competition that David Moyes wins his first silverware at Old Trafford, just as it provided for Sir Alex Ferguson.

Top Scorer: Luis Suarez- the injury to Sergio Aguero opens the door for Suarez to take home the title as long as he doesn't racially abuse/bite an opponent and has to serve another long ban.

Player of the Season: Luis Suarez- should be a shoo-in if he keeps his nose clean and potentially follows last season's Player of the Year, Gareth Bale, with a move to Real Madrid if Liverpool don't finish in the top four.

Champions League Winner: Real Madrid- I have a feeling this could be their year with doubts surrounding Barcelona and Bayern Munich after tough draws in the last 16. The English sides still look short of the best teams in Europe and I think Real Madrid have the scoring power to go all the way with Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale in their ranks.

Europa League Winner: Shakhtar Donetsk- this is always a difficult competition to predict as teams don't always take it seriously, but Shakhtar have the quality and the experience of winning this before. The likes of Juventus, Napoli and Tottenham Hotspur will all believe in their chances to win this one too if they play their strong teams throughout the rest of the competition.


December proved to be another strong month for the picks to make it four months in a row with a profit from the football picks- that has turned around a terrible start to the season when August went completely down the drain, but the last four months has had a couple of big months that will hopefully continue going into the new calendar year.


Swansea v Manchester City Pick: One of my reasons for picking Manchester City to win the Premier League title is an improving away form to complement their strong record at the Etihad Stadium and I believe they can show those improvements at the Liberty Stadium.

The early live game kicks of the 2014 calendar year and City have the chance to move to the top of the Premier League, albeit for a few hours, if they can win at Swansea and follow the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton to do so.

Swansea haven't been as effective this season as they were last season and I do continue to blame the extra games of the Europa League for their plight. Too many inconsistent performances and missing the likes of Michu does give Manchester City the edge in my opinion, even though they are missing Sergio Aguero.

Goals haven't been a problem for Manchester City as they have scored at least 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 away games in all competitions which includes in 2 of their last 3 away games in the Premier League. However, they continue to ship them at an alarming rate on their travels, failing to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 11 games, and Swansea did score against the other top teams they have hosted this season.

With that in mind, backing Manchester City to win in a game where both teams score looks the right call.


Arsenal v Cardiff City Pick: I may have my doubts about this current Arsenal squad being able to mount a realistic Premier League title challenge, but they did earn an impressive win at Newcastle United in their last game which did catch my attention.

It will be results like that one that will keep Arsenal amongst the leading contenders for the title and it also meant they finished 2013 in first place, a position from which the last 4 Premier League Champions have won the title.

That bodes well for Arsenal and I expect them to see off Cardiff City in this one to make sure they end this evening at the top of the table. Mesut Ozil may not be available, but there is plenty of attacking talent in the Arsenal squad to think they can score in this one, but the bigger impact may come from a defence that has been strong at home with only 6 goals conceded in 9 games, 3 of those goals coming in one match.

The Asian Handicap is set for Arsenal to cover 2 goals, but they have won a number of games here by the same 2-0 scoreline of late, although they have only managed draws in their last 2 games. In fact, Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games here and Cardiff have struggled for goals away from home all season.

Cardiff did manage to find the net at Chelsea and Liverpool, but there is a lot of uncertainty at the club right now and confidence may be dented by the 2-2 draw with Sunderland when Cardiff were leading 2-0 inside the last ten minutes. They just may struggle against a solid enough defence to score in this game and I like Arsenal to win with a clean sheet to boot.


Liverpool v Hull City Pick: Back to back defeats at Manchester City and Chelsea will have been a timely reminder to Liverpool as to how much is required for them to realistically consider a title challenge. The January transfer window may see them strengthen the squad, but the most important aim for Liverpool this season is finding their way back into the Champions League.

Liverpool have been strong at Anfield all season and they have won their last 6 games here in the Premier League since the surprise 0-1 loss to Southampton, They have scored plenty of goals, but the squad has been stretched with the amount of games they have had to play in a short period of time and that is where Hull City will feel they can make life difficult.

No Steven Gerrard or Daniel Sturridge means Liverpool can't make the rotations in the squad that they would perhaps want, while Hull City have been tough to play through the season and are coming off a huge 6-0 win over Fulham. However, they have lost 6 of their last 9 away games in the Premier League and have lost by a couple of goals at Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal so there is every chance Liverpool can become the latest to do that if Luis Suarez is in form.

Goals have been plentiful for Liverpool in front of their own fans and backing them to win this one by a couple of goals, at least, is the call.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Another live game on New Year's Day sees two teams that have had decent first halves of the season take on one another at St Mary's when Southampton host Chelsea.

Southampton made such a start to the season that some fans were dreaming of the Champions League, but those results have slipped in recent weeks and the defence which had played so well is beginning to look vulnerable.

I think Chelsea are good enough to take advantage of the new found issues in defence, but they also look like a team that will give their opposition chances to score and Southampton have been the kind of team that has enough attacking potential to create chances and score goals.

It is hard to separate these teams, but I have a feeling that recent history which has seen the 4 games since Southampton have been promoted, and 7 in a row in total, see at least 3 goals shared will continue in this game. I am expecting both teams to score at least once and I do think there will be the opportunity for either side to claim the three points so backing at least 3 goals to be scored is my prediction.


West Brom v Newcastle United Pick: When these teams met at St James' Park around a month ago, I picked for the game to end with at least three goals shared between the teams and I have a feeling we could see something similar in this one.

West Brom are still searching for their new manager to replace Steve Clarke, but they showed their capabilities in front of goal and also their defensive issues in their 3-3 draw at West Ham United in their last game.

They are going to be hosting a Newcastle United team that will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Arsenal, but one that has won 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League. However, it is also interesting to note that 6 of Newcastle's last 8 away games in the League have ended with at least three goals shared and this fixture has a habit of producing goals.

If West Brom defend as they did against West Ham at times, Newcastle will feel they can come here and win, but the Baggies will also be able to cause some problems going forward so I will be looking for goals in this one.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This could potentially be a huge game for these two sides that are chasing a place in the top four as a minimum aim this season and it is a game where I feel Manchester United can come out on top.

Wayne Rooney is still a doubt, but Manchester United are beginning to show the resilience that has made them champions over the years and that has led to 5 straight wins in all competitions as they come menacingly up the table and within striking distance of the leading teams.

This certainly represents a tough game against a Tottenham Hotspur side that has won the joint most away games in the Premier League so far and one that has shown more attacking intentions since Tim Sherwood replaced Andre Villas-Boas as manager.

I would be surprised if Sherwood asks his team to take a backward step in this one and that should pose Manchester United problems, especially as United have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 Premier League games at Old Trafford. A couple of those games ended with 0-1 losses against Everton and Newcastle United, but confidence does look a little more stable coming into this one.

That confidence may see United coming through and winning this game against a Tottenham side that also have struggled for clean sheets in recent away games, but who have been able to out-score teams. Spurs will be dangerous on the counter-attack, but I think Manchester United are going to be too strong and, like their local rivals, I think United come through and win a game in which both teams score.

MY PICKS: Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Southampton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 82-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (January 1st)

I hope everyone had a great New Year doing whatever they did and I hope 2014 is a great year for everyone.

The first days of the tennis season have begun and we are moving through the tournament with Second Round matches to be played on Wednesday 1st January 2014. The likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have moved through in Doha and now Roger Federer begins his new season in Brisbane.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: This was a tournament where Grigor Dimitrov reached the Final last season and he has made a positive start to the First Round with a comfortable win over Robin Haase.

I expect he can prove to be too strong for Marin Cilic after the Croatian battled through against Denis Istomin in the First Round, although it won't be easy.

I like the fact that Dimitrov is perhaps a little stronger when it comes to the serve and might be able to earn a few more cheaper points in this one. There is also the feeling that Cilic may still be recovering from the four month suspension he had to serve from Wimbledon and that may see him just lose a little focus at the wrong time in this kind of match.

Cilic did serve well against Istomin in the last Round, but Dimitrov is a better returner and I think he proves too tough to come through with a 76, 64 win.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Matthew Ebden: Matthew Ebden is playing in front of home support for the first month of the season and came through a First Round match comfortably enough to set himself up for this Second Round match against the Number 2 seed.

It isn't a great match up for Ebden as Nishikori is capable of making the best players hit one more ball and he should be able to expose the flaws in the Australian's game by forcing him to hit closer and closer to the lines.

Kei Nishikori is not someone I hold a lot of faith in because he hasn't found the balance to become a real threat at the Grand Slam level- personally I feel you have to have a big 'get out of jail' shot in the locker in those events and he offers too many chances to his opponents.

He has beaten Ebden in their two previous meetings, although it took five sets to see him off at the Australian Open a couple of years ago. On this occasion, I think it could go more along the same lines as their match at Wimbledon last summer, and I like Nishikori to come through 64, 64.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker will always be known as the man who ended in Andre Agassi's professional career, and that has proven to be the highest point of his life on the Tour.

Sometimes I do watch Becker play and feel he should have done better with the tools at his disposal, but he is far too inconsistent off the ground and can be vulnerable if the serve is not working as well as it can at times.

If Becker serves well, he can certainly make it a tough match for Stanislas Wawrinka to overcome, but if he is slightly below his game, it will make life that much easier for the Swiss player. Wawrinka is coming off his best year on the Tour when he made it to the World Tour Finals in London and will be looking to build on that.

He does look the best player by some distance in the Chennai tournament, but he has to avoid being caught cold in his first match of the week against a player that has one win under his belt. If Wawrinka comes out with the right mentality, I do think he will win this one 63, 64.


Richard Gasquet v Gael Monfils: This looks the match of the day in Doha and the layers are finding it tough to separate the two Frenchmen although I am surprised that it is Gael Monfils set as the favourite and not Richard Gasquet.

Gasquet is the defending Champion at the event and has also won 3 of the last 4 matches between these two. He has looked far more confident over the last twelve months and is capable of some stunning tennis that may be a little too good for Gael Monfils in this Second Round.

There is no doubt that Monfils has the better athletic attributes as he is much faster around the court, but he has been guilty of being too passive when it comes to shot selection and that may just allow Gasquet to control the rallies. Monfils ability to get the ball back in play can be a problem if his opponent makes too many mistakes, but the confidence in the Gasquet game may see him deal with those issues.

It is unlikely to be decided in straight sets, and Monfils is a former Finalist in Doha, but I like Gasquet for a small interest in this one.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0.73 Units (6 Units, + 12.17% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks (January 1-2)

The festive period was a tough time to get a real read on games as managers made changes and tiredness effected some squads a lot more than others. It was a tough couple of rounds to end the month which meant a small loss was made, but it has been a productive season so far so there aren't too many reasons to complain, if any at all.


Manchester City v Stoke City Pick: I know Stoke City have statistically got one of the best defences in Europe (or they did have before conceding three to Southampton at the weekend), but I think those goals conceded to the Saints may have burst their bubble somewhat.

Manchester City have not been the free-scoring side of twelve months ago, but they may just have turned a corner with the four goals they got at Norwich City. City have also not been the all-conquering side at the Etihad Stadium that they were a season ago, but they have usually been too good for Stoke and I think they will likely win this game by a couple of goals at the least.


Tottenham Hotspur v Reading Pick: Tottenham Hotspur have been a lot better away from home than they have been at White Hart Lane and the absence of Gareth Bale will not help matters in this one. However, they are facing a Reading team that has struggled on their own travels and I think Spurs are going to win this game.

The home side have also picked up a couple of clean sheets in recent home games and Reading have really struggled for goals away from home. With Spurs also conceding just 1 goal in their last 4 Premier League games and Reading failing to score in 4 straight away games, the Spurs win to nil looks the best angle on this game.


West Ham United v Norwich City Pick: Both of these sides have just hit a bad patch of form as they meet one another and the three points will be vital for both to ensure they keep a nice buffer between themselves and the relegation trouble brewing below them.

Both sides seem to have similar issues in recent weeks- both look capable of scoring goals but have also struggled defensively and I will look for that to be the case when they meet at Upton Park. Neither team will be that happy with a draw and I see one of them winning this game 2-1 so taking the chance of there being goals in this one looks the best call.


Wigan Athletic v Manchester United Pick: Many Manchester United fans point to the 4-4 draw with Everton last season as the one that ultimately cost us the title, but I think Rene Meulensteen is more correct in suggesting the defeat at Wigan Athletic was the more damaging result.

I expect United to be on high alert as they come back to the DW Stadium for the first time since then and I think there is a chance that United are going to start picking up more clean sheets going forward. They earned one at the weekend against West Brom and the return of Nemanja Vidic does make United that much more solid.

They have conceded just 2 goals against Wigan in 11 previous games against them and I think everyone knows what to expect from Roberto Martinez' side in this one- they will try and pass the ball and I think they will create some chances, but I fancy United to join Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal and become the latest side to win here with a clean sheet to boot.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: I was struggling to find any real angle with this game except that I liked Arsenal to win it and so I will take the away side in this one.

We saw what Arsenal did to a tired Newcastle United side on Saturday and I think they may be getting Southampton at the right time following their efforts in a 3-3 draw with Stoke City when they were mentally worked over at the end of the game while trying to hang on to the three points.

With only a couple of rest days, there is every chance they will be feeling worn out and Arsenal certainly have the players that can punish them, particularly as they had an extended break during the festive period that other teams did not enjoy.

There are goals in the Arsenal side and I think they will be too strong for Southampton when it is all said and done.


Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Rafa Benitez has definitely helped Chelsea improve defensively in recent games and they have actually picked up clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 games at Stamford Bridge.

I fancy them to get another one in this game in a winning effort as Queens Park Rangers looked like a side that definitely needs some new faces to freshen up their squad if they are to survive in the Premier League this season.

They barely created a chance against Liverpool and I think it may be more of the same in this one. At the prices, the Chelsea win to nil looks like the right call.


Liverpool v Sunderland Pick: Sunderland have shown some tough recent form which gives me enough belief that the prices on Liverpool are far too short in this one. Martin O'Neill has got his side playing a little better in recent weeks and have begun moving up the table.

Liverpool had a terrible home record throughout 2012 and they just shouldn't be as short as they are, even though they have won 3 of their last 4 at Anfield in the Premier League. However, the exception in that time was that shocking 1-3 loss to Aston Villa and I just don't think they should be trusted.

With the prices being as low as they are, it means Sunderland are given a 1.5 head start on the Asian Handicap and I'll look to them to make this a tight, tough contest for Liverpool and not to get beaten comfortably.


MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 3.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Sunderland + 1.5 Asian Handicap (1 Unit)



December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 18.84 Units (203 Units Staked, + 9.28 % Yield)

Tennis Picks (January 1st)

The first day of the new season couldn't have gone much better if I am honest as both picks came in, but this is an extremely long season that is just beginning so I wouldn't go overboard about any successes and failures that we see this early on.

Let's see what happens on the second day as tournaments in Australia, New Zealand and the Middle East continue.


Tatsuma Ito v John Millman: These two players are of a similar age but it is Tatsuma Ito that has had considerable more success on the main Tour than his Australian opponent John Millman.

I am surprised that the layers have made Ito the underdog in this contest and think that is mainly down to the fact that Millman has won three rounds to get through to this main draw. Millman did the same last season before being beaten by Santiago Giraldo in the first round here.

Ito has also dominated Millman in previous meetings, winning on all 3 occasions they played each other in the previous season with all the wins coming on a hard court. As the underdog, he has to be worth a small play in this one.


MY PICKS: Tatsuma Ito @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.06 (3 Units Staked, + 102% Yield)

NFL Week 17 Picks

As you can imagine, it has been a very busy time of the year so I was unable to put up my picks from Week 17 of the NFL with previews of the games.

It has been a pretty terrible season looking back, but hopefully the last few weeks will at least save some face.


MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 10 points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders - 3 points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 3 points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3 points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 10.5 points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 2 points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)