College Football Bowl Picks Part Two 2023 (December 27-January 1)

The first half of Bowl Season is over and we are into the 'bigger' Bowl Games as we make the run towards the College Football PlayOff.

Games will be added to this thread over the coming days.

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Pick: Losses to two teams from the Big 12 had to be expected, but the SMU Mustangs (11-2) won nine games in a row to secure the American Athletic Conference. They were hoping that would have carried them into a 'bigger' Bowl Game, but the Mustangs have clearly refocused after initial disappointment on Selection Day.

Head Coach Rhett Lashlee is happy the Mustangs have an opportunity to showcase their talents to a wider audience, although they will be without Quarter Back Preston Stone. The Mustangs had to make do without their star player in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game too after Stone broke his leg, but Kevin Jennings showed he can help guide this team.

In reality the Mustangs will be leaning on their Defensive unit when facing the Boston College Eagles (6-6) who lost their last three games and are still chasing a winning record in 2023.

This Bowl Game is being played at famous Fenway Park and that should mean Boston College have plenty of fans in attendance, but they don't necessarily match up very well with the Mustangs Defensive unit.

An opportunity will be given to players that are going to be part of the team in 2024 as Boston College look to offer up some experience in a competitive environment. They have a dual-threat Quarter Back that can make things a little more awkward for the SMU Mustangs, although this is a Defensive Line that have been able to make enough plays to clamp down on the run.

It may mean we need to see more from Thomas Castellanos as a passer rather than his ability to move the chains with his legs, but the passing game has been inconsistent. There is also going to be an issue for the Quarter Back whenever he is in obvious passing situations as the Mustangs possess a pass rush that will be able to give the Boston College Offensive Line plenty of fits throughout this Bowl Game.

Interceptions have been an issue for Thomas Castellanos and it may give the Mustangs the momentum to turn short fields into big points.

The Mustangs will want to ease any pressure on Kevin Jennings at Quarter Back and they have been plenty balanced as an Offensive unit all season. While the end of the season saw SMU just have some issues in ripping off big gains on the ground, they are facing a Boston College Defensive Line that had been worn down and who struggled to stop anything.

As long as the Mustangs can get something going against this porous Defensive Line, it should mean Kevin Jennings can make enough plays through the air to push the chains forward. The Eagles Secondary have struggled, even while they have been having problems stopping the run, while the lack of pass rush pressure should be music to the ears of the SMU Quarter Back.

This should give the Mustangs the chance to win a first Bowl Game in over a decade and also end the season with a twelfth win to mach a school record.

Miami Hurricanes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: There is one Bowl Game being played at the home of the Boston Red Sox and this is one taking place at famous Yankees Stadium. Playing in such an environment should bring out of the best of these two teams as they prepare to face one another in New York City.

The Miami Hurricanes (7-5) had a relatively disappointing season, but did secure a winning record by beating the Boston College Eagles to close out their regular season schedule. They have lost some key contributors to the Transfer Portal or to prepare for the NFL Draft, but that does mean an opportunity has been produced for those that may have a big impact in 2024.

Tyler Van Dyke has decided to leave the Hurricanes, which means they will have to play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) with some inexperience at a key position. However, it may also mean the game plan is pretty comfortable for the Hurricanes who will believe they can lean on this Offensive Line to run the ball right at the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers Defensive Line struggled to clamp down on the run at the end of the season and keeping the team in third and manageable spots will give the Hurricanes a chance of winning this Bowl Game. This should make things a touch more comfortable for Jacurri Brown, who is the only Quarter Back of note for the Hurricanes now that Van Dyke has left and Emory Williams is injured.

Inexperience is a problem for Brown who had redshirted through the regular season, but his team can make it easier by running the ball well. Jacurri Brown may also pose a threat with his legs, while he should have time in the pocket to attack the Scarlet Knights Secondary.

Having a few more Bowl practices should aid Rutgers after a poor end to the season with four losses suffered in succession to miss out on guaranteeing a winning record. Motivation to secure that winning end to the 2023 season will push Rutgers forward, as will playing in this Stadium.

Offensively this is a big test for the Scarlet Knights who struggled to run the ball down the stretch.

They do look like they could match up poorly on this side of the ball, although Miami have to deal with the fact that some of their players may be thinking ahead to the NFL Draft or what the future holds for them. Even then, Rutgers may find it more challenging to move the ball with the same kind of consistency as the Miami Hurricanes could find and so the lean is backing the team from the ACC.

Rutgers will play hard and it should be close, as the layers anticipate, but the Hurricanes can come through.

Kansas State Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Pick: If these schools were featuring in a 'bigger' Bowl Game, the teams may have looked a lot more similar to those that participated in the regular season. Instead, the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (9-3) are trying to round off successful seasons with a Bowl win despite losing a host of players to the Transfer Portal or those who have begun to focus on the NFL Draft.

In games like this one, motivation is one factor, but the other is trying to work out which of the teams will look the best on the field with inexperienced players coming in to fill in for those that helped compile solid records.

The Wolfpack will be turning back to Brennan Armstrong at Quarter Back after he lost his job to MJ Morris in the regular season. The latter has decided to leave the team so Armstrong may get the call to end the season as the starter in this Bowl Game.

An ideal approach to the game will be to ease the pressure on Brennan Armstrong and that is through a strong running game- the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on the ground against this Wildcats Defensive Line and keeping Armstrong in third and manageable would be huge for the potential success of this team.

Experience should help Brennan Armstrong when he does drop back to throw, but this Wildcats Secondary has been stronger than the Defensive Line and so the Wolfpack approach should mean they have a solid Offensive outing.

It feels like Kansas State will also be able to move the ball very well on the ground and they will be looking to do the same, although the Offensive play-calling may be designed to give Avery Johnson a chance to show what he can do at Quarter Back. He was always going to be taking over from Will Howard, who has entered the Transfer Portal, but this is Johnson's first career start at Quarter Back and he has some big expectations to fulfil.

He will be tested by this NC State Defensive unit, even if one or two of the key contributors are not taking to the field, but Avery Johnson will be looking to show what he will be able to do in 2024 for this Wildcats team.

Turnovers are likely going to be very important to the outcome of this game, but the Wildcats may have a bit more consistency coming from their Quarter Back. That may sound strange considering the lack of experience that Avery Johnson has compared with Brennan Armstrong, but Johnson has a high ceiling and he can begin his College Football career as a starter with a successful outing.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona Wildcats Pick: Things are going to be changing for both the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) and Arizona Wildcats (9-3) in 2024 with both teams leaving their current Conferences.

It has been a solid 2023 for both teams, but the fans are likely going to be looking back at the year with a different slant.

The Sooners would have been expecting to push into the College Football PlayOff and they were on course to do that during the year, but back back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State ended those hopes. Now a number of players have left the team, including Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back who has transferred to the Oregon Ducks, and it does leave Oklahoma potentially vulnerable to the defeat.

On the other hand, Arizona fans will feel their young team massively overachieved this season and that means the majority of the players will stick together for another go in 2024. They will be moving into the Big 12 that Oklahoma are vacating, and this is a chance for the players to show what they could potentially achieve once they leave the Pac-12.

Noah Fifita has shown himself to be one of the best young Quarter Backs in College Football, although the challenges will be greater in 2024 now there is a lot more film of him on tape. It certainly helps that he is playing behind an Arizona Offensive Line that has opened up some big running lanes and they are almost certainly going to have success establishing the ground game against a much change Sooners Defensive unit.

It should make things more comfortable for Noah Fifita, who should be able to exploit the Sooners Secondary, and the Arizona Wildcats have a real chance to showcase their qualities.

The Offensive unit will always get the focus from fans, but the Wildcats have a solid Defensive unit that can only grow and improve even further going into the 2024 season.

They can certainly show their toughness at the Defensive Line where Arizona have been able to restrict teams and doing that against the Oklahoma Sooners will certainly make the Wildcats worthy favourites.

Oklahoma's Offensive Line will likely be missing a number of key starters with the NFL Draft the focus and that should help Arizona in clamping down on the run. The Sooners will always have talented younger players coming through, but it is a tough ask to fill in for some players that are going to be playing at the next level and especially in a one-off situation like they will be facing in this Bowl Game.

Jackson Arnold will be filling in at Quarter Back and there are some huge expectations on his shoulders- he will have some top Receivers lined up and Arnold has thrown a few times in the regular season.

However, if the Offensive Line is still working out how they can replace some of their top players, it may mean Jackson Arnold is under a bit more pressure than he would be hoping. He can still make some big throws against this Wildcats Secondary, but Arizona will feel they can bait the young Quarter Back into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.

Two high-powered Offensive units, this has the makings of a very enjoyable Bowl Game, but the edge has to be given to the Wildcats and their superior experience that will take to the field. It may come down to which of these teams have the ball last to confirm a winner, but the feeling is that Arizona may want this a bit more and they can win and cover.

Friday 29th December

Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers Pick: At the start of the 2023 season, the Clemson Tigers (8-4) would have expected to be involved in the College Football PlayOff picture. Instead they were not even able to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game and the fans were not happy at times with the inconsistencies seen from a school that has prided themselves on being one of the top two or three teams in the nation in recent times.

Dabo Swinney even got into a heated discussion on a radio show with a Tigers fan about whether they were reaching their potential.

Motivation for this Bowl Game will be difficult to find, especially when you think Clemson would have been targeting a much bigger Bowl appearance and it is perhaps no surprise that a number of players have withdrawn. That is really going to impact the Tigers and the spread has narrowed accordingly.

It is the Defensive unit that have been hurt the most and the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) can play without the pressure of needing to win this Bowl Game to secure a winning record. The Wildcats are also boosted by the fact that Devin Leary will start at Quarter Back and Ray Davis, who is tipped to enter the NFL, will begin at Running Back.

Teams have looked to clamp down on the run and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air, but the Tigers Defensive Line may struggle to do that against Ray Davis. The Tigers are missing key contributors at all three levels on this side of the ball and it should mean Davis is able to establish the run and keeping Devin Leary in third and manageable spots.

Devin Leary should have an opportunity to use play-action and try and attack this Clemson Secondary and the Wildcats may be able to move the chains, albeit with an idea to make sure they are winning the field position battle.

Clemson finished the season with four wins in a row and they have largely kept the Offensive unit intact for this Bowl Game, which will leaves them as favourites to win this one.

However, they will be facing a solid Kentucky Defensive unit that may match up pretty well with the Tigers on this side of the ball.

Everything begins with the Tigers being able to establish the run, but the Wildcats Defensive Line have played the run pretty well all season and that should at least give them a chance to stall drives. The Secondary have given up some big plays, so Cade Klubnik has an opportunity to end his season on a high, although he will have to be careful when it comes to throwing Interceptions.

You can understand the reason the Clemson Tigers are still favourites, but the Kentucky Wildcats could take advantage of the Tigers Defensive absentees to keep this one close. Bowl Games can be tough to read, but the line has come down from the open and backing the Wildcats with more than a Field Goal start looks the right play.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers Pick: The Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) and Memphis Tigers (9-3) look like teams that will be highly motivated to finish the 2023 season on a high.

The two schools have become well accustomed to playing in Bowl Games in recent years and the future expansion of the College Football PlayOff is something that may be targeted by both the Cyclones and Tigers.

For now they will be looking to impose their own game plan on the other and the key looks to be the Iowa State Defensive unit as they look to clamp down on the Memphis Offense that has proven to be a big part of the Tigers success.

The Tigers have thrown the ball very well all season, but they have not faced a team like the Iowa State Cyclones too often. The Cyclones Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on the run and try and force Memphis to become one-dimensional, while throwing into this Secondary comes with the danger of loading up on the turnover numbers.

Seth Henigan will be confident at Quarter Back, and his numbers give him every right to believe he can attack this Secondary, but Interceptions have been an issue.

Turning the ball over and losing those possessions will really hurt the Tigers who have been set as a considerable underdog and that is because they may find it very difficult to stop what is expected to be a balanced Iowa State Offense.

Even though the top Running Backs are no longer with the Cyclones, the Offensive Line have prided themselves on cracking open with lanes on the ground. That was proven in the final regular season game when Abu Sama III came into the starting line up at Running Back and put up 276 yards on the ground.

The Cyclones Offensive Line are expected to have their way with the Tigers Defensive Line and that should mean they in third and manageable situations for much of this Bowl Game. Abu Sama III might even be able to rip off some big gains on his own and pile up the numbers again, and that should help Rocco Becht at Quarter Back.

He will be well protected and Rocco Becht has to be given credit for looking after the ball when he has been asked to throw- that will be important against this Tigers Secondary that has allowed plenty of passing yards, but who have used Interceptions to turn the tide.

Much will depend on how well the Memphis Tigers can impose themselves on the Iowa State Defense, but even then it feels like the Cyclones have an edge.

Ultimately they may win the turnover battle and that can see the Cyclones pull clear for a big win and a cover of this Bowl Game.

Monday 1st January

Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The College Football PlayOff selection came with a lot of scrutiny and ultimately controversy when the final four teams were selected. Leaving out an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion will still be a talking point when the PlayOff begins, although the Florida State Seminoles blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs may have the Committee feeling justified in their final selection.

The Michigan Wolverines (13-0) will feel they have done more than enough to deserve their spot in the PlayOff for another season as an unbeaten Champion that has knocked off the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes. A crushing win over the Iowa Hawkeyes secured the Big Ten Championship, but the Wolverines will still head to Pasadena knowing there is a lot to prove.

They will begin as narrow favourites against SEC Champions Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who forced their way into the top four with a win over the Georgia Bulldogs to take home a Conference Championship. Leaving out the SEC Champion was the big challenge that the Committee had been set when picking their final four teams for the PlayOffs, but they felt the Crimson Tide body of work, and health of the team, deserved a place in the top four.

Losing to the Texas Longhorns at home should have been difficult to overcome, but Alabama have put a strong winning run together and the loss was given a bit more importance after the Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship. Now Head Coach Nick Saban will have had plenty of time to put together a strong game plan to tackle the Wolverines and the layers are taking no real chances with this Rose Bowl PlayOff Semi Final.

They may not be the same Defensive unit of years gone by, but Alabama have improved as the season has gone on. This is going to be the challenge for the Michigan Wolverines Offensively, especially as Michigan struggled to really show off on this side of the ball as the competition intensified.

Running the ball with Blake Corum will be the main ambition of the Wolverines, but the line of scrimmage has not been controlled as well as Michigan would have expected. There has been some room against this Alabama Defensive Line, but not a lot, and so the pressure may be on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.

There was a point in the season when McCarthy had his name linked with the Heisman, but he has certainly been more of a game manager down the stretch. That may be all that Michigan expect from him in this College Football PlayOff, and especially if he is being asked to throw from third and long spots on the field, but it also means the numbers are not going to be very eye-catching.

Michigan will just want to make sure they are able to win the field battle and that means avoiding the turnovers that could be key to the entire outcome of the game.

The reality is this game is likely to be decided when Alabama have the ball.

After a rough start, Jalen Milroe has stepped up to become the Quarter Back that the Crimson Tide would have wanted and he has made some memorable plays, none more so than the pass that broke the Auburn Tigers at the end of the Iron Bowl.

The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line is big and strong, as has become common in Alabama, but the strength of the Michigan Defensive unit has been at the line of scrimmage. This is going to be a monumental battle with each team trying to impose their will on the other and will determine how this game plays out.

Getting in front of the chains would be huge, but Alabama have to be a little more confident in their Quarter Back making the plays through the air that may give the SEC Champions an edge.

The Wolverines pass rush will be a problem, but the Secondary have allowed one or two big plays to be made against them and Jalen Milroe is playing with the confidence to exploit any holes.

And for all of their successes in recent years, Michigan have struggled to really perform when it comes to the College Football PlayOff, which may indicate something against the Coaching with extra time to prepare. On the other hand, Alabama have been really good at making sure they get into the National Championship Game from this position and the feeling is that Nick Saban will out-think Jim Harbaugh in a big game.

Nothing will come easy for either Offensive unit, but Jalen Milroe may have a bit more than JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back and that can push Alabama through at the expense of Michigan.

Washington Huskies vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The Sugar Bowl features the last Pac-12 Champion, for now at least, and the Big 12 Champion and the Washington Huskies (13-0) have to be motivated having been set as a considerable underdog. That will bother the team, especially as they have continued to upset the odds, most notably when beating the Oregon Ducks in the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

This is the situation for the Huskies again when facing the Texas Longhorns (12-1) who have overcome their one defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners to go on and win the Big 12 Championship in their last season in the Conference. Their win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road was always going to give the Longhorns an opportunity to earn their spot in the College Football PlayOff and many will feel a repeat of that game from the regular season will be played in the National Championship Game.

Both teams will be in the same SEC next season, but the Longhorns will make a mistake if they overlook Washington, who are better than the sum of their parts.

Michael Penix Jr leads the way for the Huskies and he was a Heisman Finalist so the Quarter Back will be tasked with leading Washington to the National Championship Game. Last year it was TCU from the Big 12 who upset their way into that Game, but Washington will certainly feel they can do that this time around.

Running the ball opens up the passing lanes for the Huskies, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line will be anything but easy. Both teams will feel they have the dominant unit at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, and it is certainly going to be very important in determining the outcome of the game.

Establishing the run will be key, but the Offensive Line will certainly feel they can still offer Michael Penix Jr time in the pocket to make his plays down the field. The protection should hold up for the Quarter Back and this Longhorns Secondary have had one or two holes exploited when teams have stepped back to throw.

However, Penix Jr is also going to have to be aware of the tendency of the Texas Defensive Backs to anticipate throws and jump in front of those passes. Turnovers are key in every American Football game, but it feels very important for the Huskies to avoid losing the turnover battle against this Longhorns team.

Earning extra possessions will certainly give the Longhorns a serious edge and they have certainly been good enough Offensively to challenge this Washington team. The Huskies have to be respected for the unbeaten record, but the Defensive unit have not been nearly as strong as their Offense.

Quinn Ewers is back at Quarter Back and Jonathan Brooks has been one of the top Running Backs in College Football and these two players have certainly provided Texas with the kind of balance that will make them tough to stop. Picking up short fields from turnovers will make it very tough to slow down the Longhorns and the feeling is that this could be a hard day in the office for the Huskies.

The Longhorns Offensive Line should dictate the terms at the line of scrimmage and Brooks will likely keep Texas in front of the chains.

This should mean Quinn Ewers has a bit more time in the pocket to attack this Washington Secondary that have allowed considerable yards through the air. Much like Texas, the Huskies have a Secondary that may bend, but will turn the ball over with aggressive play from the Defensive Backs and avoiding those will be very much on the mind of Ewers at Quarter Back.

You have to really believe that turnovers are going to dictate the outcome of this Sugar Bowl and decide which of these teams is able to play in the National Championship Game.

It is a big spread and opposing the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game was not a very good idea as they dominated on the day.

However, Washington have been involved in a lot of tight wins and you have to believe that eventually that will catch up with them.

The Longhorns have the balance Offensively and the strength on the Defensive Line to earn enough of an edge to not only win this game, but cover as they look to earn a spot in the National Championship Game. It should be a lot of fun to watch on New Year's Day, but the Longhorns look the team to back in the Sugar Bowl.

MY PICKS: SMU Mustangs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Bowl Part Two Update: 3-3, - 0.37 Units (6 Units Staked, - 6.17% Yield)

Bowl Part One: 4-6, - 2.71 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.10% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Bowl Picks Part One 2023 (December 16-26)

There was plenty of controversy attached to the final four teams selected to make the PlayOffs as the Committee decided to ignore a Power 5 Conference Champion that had put together an unbeaten season.

The Florida State Seminoles were sickened by that turn of events with the suggestion the PlayOff Committee chose to move past them on account of how they BELIEVE the Seminoles would perform rather than giving them a chance.

In previous years they have picked schools with injuries to Quarter Backs, but this time there were enough options that the Committee felt justified in picking unbeaten Michigan and Washington and adding the SEC and Big 12 Champions too. All of this will be a moot point at the end of next season with an expanded PlayOff format, but you can expect to hear much more about the final four selected if we do not get two very competitive Semi Final games.

It will also be interesting to see how Florida State get on when they face the Georgia Bulldogs, another team disappointed to be left out. The Bulldogs have even had a State Senator calling for that Bowl Game to be considered part of the College Football PlayOff, but we are where we are in 2023.

The Bowl Games are going be split in two threads as usual and the College Football PlayOff Picks will be in the second thread that covers the back half of Bowl season.

Picks will be added to this thread between now and Boxing Day.

Ohio Bobcats vs Georgia Southern Eagles Pick: They may feel a touch fortunate to have earned a Bowl opportunity after the Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) produced a 0.500 season. They earned their sixth win relatively quickly, but the Eagles ended the regular season with four losses in a row and Georgia Southern were beaten in their Bowl Game last year.

They are facing the Ohio Bobcats (9-3) who only just missed out on playing in the MAC Championship Game having finished behind the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks within their Division.

The opening weekend of Bowl Games is not always an ideal position for teams with the limited preparation time they can put together on the field. That can have an impact on teams, while the Transfer Portal has opened and some teams will have key players leaving schools as they look ahead to the next step in their career.

It is going to have an impact on the Ohio State Bobcats and has been the main reason they opened as favourites, but go into the Bowl Game as the underdog. Kurtis Rourke has had a strong career as the Bobcats Quarter Back and he displayed dual-threat ability out of the position, but he has entered the Transfer Portal and that mean Parker Navarro is going to have start this Bowl Game.

He has had very limited experience on the field in 2023 and Navarro will not have an easy match up in this Bowl Game, although it is important to know that he can lean on the Ohio Defensive unit and so avoiding mistakes is important. The expectation is that Parker Navarro will be able to use his legs as much as his arm and that should see Ohio move the ball, although they will lack some consistency.

It has been something that the Bobcats have dealt with all season so anything that Parker Navarro can give the team will be making sure that he does not lose this Bowl Game.

Instead it could be the Bobcats Defensive unit that is able to step up and keep this game competitive against a Georgia Southern team that will be lacking some confidence.

Four losses in a row will do that and the Eagles may struggle to establish the run against this Ohio Defensive Line which has clamped down on the run all season.

They will lean on Davis Brin at Quarter Back after he transferred to the Eagles after spending four years with Tulsa and he has become a leader for Georgia Southern. He has thrown for over 3400 yards this season and 22 Touchdown passes, although Brin's criticism is that he has made too many mistakes.

He will earn his numbers in this Bowl Game, but throwing out of third and long situations will make it difficult for Davis Brin to avoid those mistakes. The Quarter Back will be facing a Ohio Secondary that have made plenty of big plays in the passing game, while the Bobcats will put some pressure on Brin when he steps back to throw out of obvious passing situations.

Losing the starting Quarter Back is blow, but the Ohio Bobcats are 25-13 against the spread as the underdog over the last several seasons. Having more than a Field Goal in their favour in this Bowl Game looks the right play to get Bowl Season underway.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs New Mexico State Aggies Pick: A 10-3 record was good enough to take the New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) into the Conference-USA Championship Game, but an injury to Quarter Back Diego Pavia contributed to the defeat against the Liberty Flames.

That loss ended a run of eight wins in a row and that includes the Aggies winning on the road at SEC Auburn Tigers.

Diego Pavia looks like he will be able to suit up for this Isleta New Mexico Bowl against the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) who were never as competitive as they would have liked in the Mountain West Conference. Three losses in a row to end the regular season meant the Bulldogs finished in the middle of the pack, although it was overall another good season for Fresno State with eight wins on the board.

The only negative may be that they were not able to secure at least one more win that would have given them a shot at winning double digit games when taking part in the Bowl Game.

Head Coach Jeff Tedford has left his role as he deals with health issues and there is some question about motivation for a team that may have been targeting a 'better' Bowl Game. The Bulldogs do have an opportunity to make some strong Offensive plays behind Quarter Back Mikey Keene who has over 2500 passing yards with 21 Touchdowns thrown.

Mikey Keene should be given some support from the running game against this Aggies Defensive Line, while there are one or two holes in the Secondary that can be exploited. Avoiding Interceptions will be important, but Keene should have a decent outing and that will give New Mexico State something to think about.

The pressure may be on the Bulldogs to keep up on the scoreboard with the expectation Diego Pavia is going to be on the field to lead the Aggies at Quarter Back.

As the season as wore on, Fresno State have found it more and more difficult to play the run and that is going to be a massive problem against this New Mexico State Offensive unit. Head Coach Jerry Kill has spoken of the toughness of his Quarter Back and that should mean Diego Pavia continues to offer a dual-threat out of the position, which can only aid the Aggies when it comes to establishing the run.

The expectation is that the Aggies will be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and that should help Diego Pavia in running play-action and attacking this Secondary. The Fresno State Secondary numbers have not been bad during the three game losing run, but that may have plenty to do with the fact they have not been able to slow the ground game rather than any real improvement in level of play compared to what we have seen overall.

The Bowl Game is going to feel like a home one for the Aggies, which should help too, and they have thrived as a favourite by going 12-3 against the spread in the last fifteen times they have been in that spot. Controlling the clock and perhaps picking up a turnover or two should give New Mexico State the edge in this Bowl Game and they can win and cover.

Boise State Broncos vs UCLA Bruins Pick: Andy Avalos was fired as Head Coach of the Boise State Broncos (8-5) the day after the team had moved back to 5-5. Spencer Danielson took over as Interim Head Coach, but the Interim tag was removed after the team won three more games in a row and won the Mountain West Conference Championship.

The removal of the previous Head Coach will lead to players leaving and the Broncos are going to be without Taylen Green, the starting Quarter Back who will be playing with Arkansas next season. He can be a dual-threat at the position, but Green has not been able to match his numbers from 2022 and the Quarter Back had 11 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions this year compared with 14 and 6 last season.

Boise State will likely be starting CJ Tiller at Quarter Back and this feels a big spot to throw in a Freshman who has not thrown a single pass in his College Football career. There are big hopes for Tiller in Boise State, but he will be facing a UCLA Bruins (7-5) Defensive unit that was key in getting the team into a Bowl Game.

The problem for CJ Tiller and the Broncos Offense is that they do not match up that well with the Bruins on this side of the ball. Having an experienced Quarter Back would perhaps help, although Boise State may be hoping the lack of tape around Tiller may just surprise the Bruins.

While the Boise State Broncos will be trying to establish the run, they are going to be running into a tough Bruins Defensive Line, albeit one missing Laiatu Latu who has begun to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft. The Broncos have been strong at piling up the yards on the ground in their four game winning run, but UCLA have to be expected to sell out to defend up front and see if the inexperienced Tiller can beat them through the air.

CJ Tiller should be well protected and there are issues in the Bruins Secondary, but the Quarter Back may take a bit more time to allow routes to develop. That will see the pressure counting down on Tiller and you have to believe he will make one or two mistakes as he begins his College career.

They can make up for this one the other side of the ball where the Broncos Defensive unit have stood tall on their way to winning the Mountain West Conference.

There has to be a confidence that the Broncos can keep their team competitive against the UCLA Bruins who lost three of their last four games to end the regular season. Much like Boise State, UCLA have had issues at Quarter Back and Dante Moore has entered the Transfer Portal, which means Ethan Garbers will likely be given the start.

He does have more experience than CJ Tiller, but Ethan Garbers could also be throwing from third and long spots with the Broncos Defensive Line likely to clamp down on the run. Ethan Garbers will then be throwing into a Boise State Secondary that has played well down the stretch, while the Broncos pass rush is likely going to create some havoc in this game.

The Broncos are a very strong underdog to back in recent years and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games when given points.

With the Bruins at 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the favourite, taking the points looks the play in this LA Bowl Game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs California Golden Bears Pick: The Big 12 Conference will have a different feel in 2024 without the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners who are moving onto the SEC. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) tried to play spoiler for the Longhorns in the final regular season game, but were blown out on the road and finished the season at 0.500 with one more opportunity to put a winning record on the board.

Next season could be one in which the Red Raiders target the very top of the Big 12 Conference and earning a spot in the expanded College Football PlayOff. Having Tahj Brooks agreeing to come back at Running Back is very important for the Red Raiders and they are the favourites in this Bowl Game when facing the California Golden Bears (6-6) who are also trying to win one more game to end the year with a winning record of their own.

It has been a bit of a streaky season for the Golden Bears who had lost four in a row and looked they were going to miss out on the Bowl Season, but California rallied to win three games in a row, including an upset of the UCLA Bruins in the final regular season game.

Fernando Mendoza has to be given a lot of credit for the way he has performed at Quarter Back in his first season with the team and he did end up with almost 1500 passing yards and 14 Touchdowns thrown. That's a good return from seven games and the three game winning run will certainly give Mendoza further confidence as he prepares to play his first Bowl Game.

Mistakes have been made, which cannot be a surprise considering the relative inexperience of the Quarter Back, but Mendoza may be able to lean on Jaydn Ott at Running Back to aid him in his bid to keep the chains moving. There are big ambitions held by Ott who had a strong year running the ball in 2023 and he should be able to have success against this Texas Tech Defensive Line that looked worn down towards the end of the regular season.

Keeping the team in third and manageable should make life that much more comfortable for Fernando Mendoza.

The Red Raiders will be leaning on their own big name Running Back Tahj Brooks as they look to end the season on a high after seeing the three game winning run snapped by the Texas Longhorns. It might be tougher for Brooks considering how well the California Defensive Line were performing at the end of the regular season and that may make things more difficult for Behren Morton at Quarter Back.

It has not been an eye-catching season from Behren Morton, but he has played well enough and the Quarter Back is going to be throwing against a Golden Bears Secondary that has had some holes. However, the Transfer Portal may mean Morton is without some of the key Receivers that the Red Raiders would have used through much of the season and so you do have to question whether they can have the kind of success that may have been expected.

The Quarter Back may also find himself under some pass rush pressure, which could lead to the mistakes and turnovers that may give the Golden Bears the edge.

Earning a winning season will be a motivation for both of these teams, but California seem to be quite convinced about their chances of earning the upset.

The Golden Bears are 30-16 against the spread in their last forty-six in that spot and being back in a Bowl Game for the first time in four years is clearly going to be inspiring California for a full effort.

Taking the points with the underdog in the Independence Bow looks to be the right side of this one.

Tuesday 19th December

Marshall Thundering Herd vs UTSA Roadrunners Pick: A win in their final regular season game has just about gotten the Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) over the line to become Bowl eligible. However, it has been far from an ideal build up for this Bowl Game and they are a significant underdog when facing the UTSA Roadrunners (8-4).

The Roadrunners finished with a 7-1 record in the American Athletic Conference and that mean narrowly missing out on a place in the Championship Game.

No matter, UTSA comfortably earned Bowl eligibility and the players will be looking to write their names into school history by becoming the first to win a Bowl Game.

They will have to respect the fact that the Thundering Herd's Defensive Line were playing at a solid level to close out the regular season, although UTSA will also be confident in what their own Offensive Line brings to the field. That battle at the line of scrimmage will be key, if only to ensure Frank Harris is given time at the Quarter Back position to make his plays down the field.

It will be an emotional evening for Frank Harris and his top Receiving option, Joshua Cephus, as the senior players call time on their College career. These two should be able to produce a big game for the Roadrunners against a struggling Marshall Secondary and that will certainly give UTSA confidence that they can complete what has been a successful time for the school.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but UTSA might be catching Marshall at a good time with the Thundering Herd losing their starting Quarter Back to the Transfer Portal. Cam Fancher had 11 Touchdown passes with 11 Interceptions, but his decision to move on has been met with some controversy, and mainly out of Head Coach Charles Huff's comments.

Charles Huff said Fancher has been 'miserable' and received plenty of pushback for that.

He will be hoping that Cole Pennington can help change the headlines- the son of Chad Pennington threw 6 Interceptions when playing relief of the starting Quarter Back and he has yet to throw a Touchdown pass, which means it could be a tough day for the Thundering Herd when it comes to moving the chains.

They would love to lean on a running game and hope Rasheen Ali can get something going on the ground, but it has not been easy to do that against this UTSA Defensive Line. Add in the fact they are not likely to give Cole Pennington that much respect and the Roadrunners may choose to sell out to stop the run and see if the inexperienced Quarter Back can do something special.

Throwing against this Secondary will be challenging for Pennington and Interceptions will likely give UTSA an opportunity to create short fields and, ultimately, pull clear of the Thundering Herd.

Bowl Games can be tough to call, but UTSA can make history with a win and a cover in this one.

Friday 22nd December

UCF Knights vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: A first season in a Power 5 Conference has come with some ups and downs for the UCF Knights (6-6), but they still have an opportunity to put a winning record on the board.

With the Big 12 Conference shaking up next year, the Knights have made it clear that the target in 2024 is putting together a strong season that will end with a place in the expanded PlayOff format.

Building momentum with a Bowl win is the aim as the Knights prepare to face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) who lost two of their last three regular season games. Those defeats to the Clemson Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs will not have dented the confidence as the Yellow Jackets who have made themselves Bowl eligible for the first time since 2018.

It should mean they are plenty motivated, and the Yellow Jackets will feel they can do enough Offensively to remain competitive.

Much will depend on the Offensive Line being able to establish the run and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets should be able to do that, even against a Knights Defensive Line that performed pretty well down the stretch. Keeping things moving on the ground and controlling the clock and the rhythm of this Bowl Game, while also keeping Haynes King out of pressurised situatuons.

The Quarter Back will have some success, but throwing against this Knights Secondary has been a tough task for many Quarter Backs this season. It should be a challenge for Haynes King, who has to be aware of the turnover creating ability of this Knights Defensive unit.

While the Knights Defensive Line showed some toughness to clamp down on the run down the stretch, it has been a problem for the Yellow Jackets Defensive Line all season. It is going to be a real surprise if Georgia Tech are able to do much better in this Bowl Game against a UCF Offensive Line that has really enjoyed being able to get into their run blocking, while having a dual-threat Quarter Back makes it that much tougher to slow down UCF.

John Rhys Plumlee admits he is not at full health after dealing with injury through the season, but he should be playing in front of the chains. Enough has been displayed to believe he can make one or two decent plays in the passing game, while Plumlee has looked after the ball much more effectively than Haynes King.

In September 2022, UCF were able to get the better of Georgia Tech and they ended up pulling away for a 17 point win- this one is expected to be closer, but the UCF Knights might have the superior balance Offensively and are likely to be a little more consistent running the ball as they earn a Bowl win and a winning record for the 2023 season.

Saturday 23rd December

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick: Two teams with the same 6-6 record meet in this Bowl Game and there should be plenty of motivation for both the Northern Illinois Huskies and Arkansas State Red Wolves as they try and produce a winning season.

Neither of these schools can really say they have had a lot of success in Bowl Games and that should give the players further motivation.

It is especially the case for the Northern Illinois Huskies who have not won a Bowl Game since knocking off the Red Wolves back in 2011. They have lost seven Bowl Games since that last victory and the Huskies come into this game as the underdog.

They are being given enough points to be considered competitive and the feeling is that the Huskies can make those points count even in a losing effort.

Rocky Lombardi is a veteran College Football Quarter Back and he continues to lead the way for the Northern Illinois Huskies. However, Lombardi's primary role may be making sure he hands the ball to Antario Brown at Running Back and the Huskies will be looking to lean on Brown and the Offensive Line.

Both have been operating very successfully at the end of the regular season and they are facing an Arkansas State Defensive Line which has had some significant difficulties in clamping down on the run. Antario Brown will be looking to keep the Huskies in front of the chains, which should only make things easier for a veteran like Lombardi at Quarter Back.

The key for the underdog is not to force the game to rest on Rocky Lombardi's arm, although there are one or two holes in the Red Wolves Secondary that can be exploited.

Northern Illinois will feel they can move the ball on the ground, but that task may be tougher when the Arkansas State Red Wolves have the ball.

The Huskies ended the regular season with the Defensive Line playing the run about as well as they have this season and they will certainly be looking to force the Red Wolves to become a little one-dimensional with the play-calling.

Arkansas State will be confident in the ability of their young Quarter Back, Jaylen Raynor who has won Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference. However, this could be a tough day to make consistent plays if the team are not able to run the ball as well as they would like, which would leave Jaylen Raynor throwing into a Huskies Secondary that have played well in recent games.

He is clearly a capable Quarter Back and will still have some solid numbers, but the lack of balance could be evident and it may see the Northern Illinois Huskies continue their dominance of the series with Arkansas State.

Taking the points with the underdog looks to be the play in what should be a competitive Bowl Game.

Air Force Falcons vs James Madison Dukes Pick: If they had remained unbeaten, James Madison Dukes (11-1) might have been given the opportunity to impress in a 'bigger' Bowl Game than the Armed Forces Bowl. Regardless, this is the first time the Dukes will be taking part in a Bowl Game and that has to provide plenty of motivation alone, especially as they were not going to eligible at the start of the season due to NCAA rules regarding former FCS schools moving into the FBS.

They are facing the Air Force Falcons (8-4) who were another team looking like they may have been invited into a much more glamorous Bowl Game than this one when they opened the season with eight straight wins. Four losses in a row to end the regular season ended those hopes, although the Falcons will know the importance of playing in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons beat the Baylor Bears in this Bowl last year, but they are the underdog against James Madison.

One of the main reasons for that is that Air Force look like they match up pretty poorly on the Offensive side of the ball with this Dukes Defensive unit.

The Falcons want to run the ball over and over again, and Zac Larrier is asked to manage the game at Quarter Back. The extra preparation time should help James Madison, while the Dukes Defensive Line have been stout up front and been able to clamp down on the run.

At the same time, the Dukes Secondary have not played the pass nearly as well as the Defensive Line have played the run, but Air Force are not built to take advantage and that should give the narrow favourite an opportunity.

James Madison have struggled to run the ball effectively on the other side of the ball and they will be relying on Quarter Back Jordan McCloud to move the chains. He has entered the Transfer Portal, but McCloud is expected to start this Bowl Game as he has yet to tip his hat as to where he will be playing in 2024.

This looks a good chance for Jordan McCloud to sign off as a Dukes player in the right way and he should be able to attack this Air Force Secondary with plenty of confidence.

Pressure around the Quarter Back from the Falcons pass rush and a ball-hawking team that may give up big yards, but who will turn the ball over, makes this a more competitive game. Jordan McCloud will have to be aware of the situations as they develop, but he should have enough success to give the Dukes the edge.

A few of the Dukes players might be leaving in the Transfer Portal, but they would love to sign off with another history making performance. That motivation will be hard to shift and James Madison may to just enough to win this Bowl Game and cover the relatively small number as the favourite.

Northwestern Wildcats vs Utah Utes Pick: Winning records have already been secured for the 2023 season, but winning a Bowl Game would place a neat bow for a number of players that may be departing at the end of the year.

The Utah Utes (8-4) will enter the game as the favourites against the Northwestern Wildcats (7-5).

It had been touch and go whether the Wildcats would be able to produce the kick needed that would take them into Bowl eligibility, but four wins in their last five games helped them not only secure that place, but also ensured a winning season. They will know they are going to be tested on the Offensive side of the ball against this Utah Defensive unit, if only for the poor match up Northwestern have, but the confidence of the finish makes them dangerous.

Running the ball against this Utah Defensive Line will be very difficult, especially as Northwestern have not been able to do that with a lot of consistency anyway. That means it will be up to Quarter Back Ben Bryant to make the plays with his arm, but he has been successful doing that and has guided the Wildcats very well.

He should have more time to make throws down the field and the Utah Secondary were guilty of giving up huge yardage through the air. Ben Bryant has to avoid the Interceptions that have perhaps been a bit of a problem for him, but this Utes team have not been turning the ball over in the air while allowing almost 300 yards per game and it should mean Northwestern have opportunities.

If this was a usual regular season game, Utah would feel they have the balanced Offensive unit that could really make things awkward for the Wildcats.

Quarter Back Bryson Barnes has entered the Transfer Portal, but will play, while other players have decided they are going to join the NFL Draft and will perhaps be looking to focus on that rather than this Bowl Game. Even then, Utah should be able to establish the run to make things a little more comfortable for Barnes, who will have a chance to make big plays into a Secondary that gave up almost 250 passing yards per game as the season wound down.

However, the Wildcats might bend, but they have been aggressive in their coverage and it has led to Interceptions and Barnes might end up being forced into a mistake or two, which can be critical to the outcome of this Bowl Game.

These two teams have had contrasting results in recent Bowl Games- Northwestern have won four in a row, while Utah have lost four in a row. It was the Wildcats who came out on top in December 2018 in the Holiday Bowl against the Utah Utes, while the latter also had an inconsistent conclusion to the regular season.

With players thinking to what is ahead, the underdog Wildcats may be able to make enough plays through the air to keep this one close. Winning the turnover battle will be important, but Northwestern can do that and make sure the points they are being given are made to count.

Tuesday 26th December

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Bowling Green Falcons Pick: The only team that finished the regular season with a losing record and who have been invited into a Bowl Game is the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7). They are not going to apologise for being given this opportunity though and the Golden Gophers will enter the Bowl as the favourite.

They are facing the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) who have already secured a winning season, but who would love to round 2023 off with a Bowl victory.

In recent years, Bowling Green have struggled to do that so there is a big motivation for the players involved as the school looks for a first post-season victory since 2014. Things have been a lot different for the Minnesota Golden Gophers who have won six Bowl Games in a row, including all four under Head Coach PJ Fleck who is now only a couple more appearances away from taking Minnesota to a school record tying of seven Bowl Games.

The Head Coach is one that clearly gets the best out of his players and those additional Bowl practices have certainly paid off.

However, the unexpected Bowl invite has meant a few players are not going to be involved for the Golden Gophers, including starting Quarter Back Athan Kaliakmanis who has entered the Transfer Portal. It has given Cole Kramer an opportunity to finish his College career with a start in a Bowl Game, although the lack of time in competitive action this season will be a slight concern.

This is a level down from the Conference schedule, but the Golden Gophers may still find it challenging Offensively against this Falcons Defensive unit. It all begins up front where the Defensive Line have been playing very well to end the season and clamping down on the run, which is a problem for Minnesota's Offensive Line who have not been opening big holes on the ground this season.

This will mean Cole Kramer is being asked to do a bit more, which in turn may expose some of the lack of experience of playing in the regular season in competitive environments. The Quarter Back will not be able to hold the ball for too long whenever he drops back to throw, while the Bowling Green Secondary have been very good at turning the ball over without giving up huge yards through the air.

Minnesota should still have some success, but they are not expected to blow past Bowling Green and that should make the points being given to the underdog look all the more appealing.

Terion Stewart may have a real chance to make his mark on this Bowl Game with the Running Back attacking a Minnesota Defensive Line that was worn down at the end of the regular season. For most of 2023 it has been tough for the Golden Gophers to contain the run, but they were allowing huge gains to be picked up at the end of the regular season and this may allow Stewart to keep the Falcons in third and manageable spots.

It should make life a bit more comfortable for Connor Bazelak at Quarter Back, although the key will be to ensure he avoids turning the ball over and offering up short fields for the Golden Gophers.

The Minnesota Secondary have decent numbers, but that is also partly down to the fact that teams have been able to run the ball right at them and pick up big plays. A lack of a pass rush should mean Bazelak has time time the pocket that has not always been there for him this season and the Falcons can keep this one close.

Bowling Green actually beat Minnesota on the road in September 2021 so they should not be intimidated by the challenge, even if the Golden Gophers have been very impressive in Bowl Games in recent years.

With the points being given to them, the Falcons can make enough Offensive plays to keep this one close, even if they do come up short at the end.

MY PICKS: Ohio Bobcats + 3.5 Points @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

New Mexico State Aggies - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boise State Broncos + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

California Golden Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UTSA Roadrunners - 11.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

UCF Knights - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Northern Illinois Huskies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

James Madison Dukes - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Northwestern Wildcats + 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowling Green Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Bowl Part One Update: 4-5, - 1.71 Units (9 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Bowl Picks 2022 Part One (December 16-27)

It has been a pretty miserable season for the College Football Picks in 2022 and sometimes it is just the way it goes.

Frustration aside, we are down to the Bowl Games and I am going to split the post-season into two threads with a final one being made for the National Championship Game in January. The first thread will largely be focusing from schools outside of the Power 5 Conferences, but the second thread should cover the two College Football PlayOff Semi Final games as well as the big New Year's Eve and New Year's Day Bowl Games.

I will add games to this thread through to December 27th, which is half way through the Bowl Season.

Friday 16th December

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs UAB Blazers Pick: Things are pretty clear for the two teams lucky enough to be opening the 2022 Bowl Season in the beautiful Bahamas and a winning record will be the reward for the team that can focus the best. On the other hand, a defeat will mean a losing season in 2022 and that should at least focus the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (6-6) and UAB Blazers (6-6).

There is no doubt that playing in this location is a big test for the players with the distraction of the surroundings one that can be difficult to ignore.

Miami (Ohio) came up well short of expectations in the MAC, but they are in line to avoid their first losing season since 2017. Wins in three of their last four games have given them some momentum and the Redhawks are 1-1 outright, but 2-0 against the spread, in their last two Bowl appearances as they prepare for the extra game for the third time in four years.

Head Coach Chuck Martin has to be given credit for the way the Redhawks have played, but this is far from an easy match up for them Offensively. The struggles to run the ball have been a hindrance to the Redhawks approach and I am not sure the Offensive Line can take advantage of the main weakness of the Blazers Defensive unit.

Being unable to establish the run with any consistency will mean throwing from tough positions and that is where the Redhawks Offensive Line has had issues of late when it comes to protecting Aveon Smith at Quarter Back. Despite being a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position, Smith has taken plenty of Sacks in recent games and the Blazers pass rush could cause problems for him in this one.

Even if Aveon Smith has the time he wants to make throws, the Blazers Secondary will feel they can get the better of what has been a pretty limited passing game. Some improvements of late will encourage Miami (Ohio), but I am not sure that is enough to believe they are going to have a consistent passing game and certainly not one that can make up for any struggles to run the ball.

In reality it has been possible to run the ball against the Blazers Defensive Line for much of the season and I do think Smith's ability to tuck the ball will help the Redhawks. The problem will be if they are in obvious passing positions on the field, which will shift the edge to the Blazers, and I do think this veteran Offense could have some issues moving the ball with a lot of success.

At least the Coaching Staff and the Redhawks game plan will be familiar for the team going forward, but that is far from the case with the UAB Blazers. After winning nine games in 2021, UAB fans would have had high hopes going into the 2022 season, but this is a team that has fallen short and is now looking to avoid the first losing season since 2013 having seen the football programme restarted in 2017.

Some of the issues may have come from the surprising retirement of Bill Clark just weeks before the season was to begin- he has revitalised the Blazers in his six previous years with the team. The Interim position was handed to Bryant Vincent and the UAB players made it clear they wanted the tag removed and Vincent being made permanent Head Coach so it has been a surprise to them as much as many others that UAB have appointed Trent Dilfer to take the team forward.

It is an off-field distraction that has to be a concern to Blazers backers, but I do think the players will really put in one more big effort for Bryant Vincent in this Bowl Game. A disappointing end to the season saw UAB lose four of five games before rallying for a victory in their final regular season game to become Bowl eligible and have the shot to extend their run without a losing season to another year.

Much of this game could come down to the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball- all season the Blazers Offensive Line have been able to churn out huge numbers on the ground, but the Redhawks Defensive Line has been pretty stout up front. Unfortunately for Miami (Ohio), the recent games has seen something of a worn down Defensive Line allowing big plays and I do think the Blazers can pick up where opponents have left off and pound the rock with a huge amount of success throughout this game.

DeWayne McBride should have another strong game and that only makes things easier for Dylan Hopkins at Quarter Back with all in that position happy to be operating in front of the chains. With the way the Blazers have been able to run the ball, the passing game is one that can be good enough as long as the game is managed and I do think Hopkins and company can do that against the limited Miami (Ohio) pass rush and the one or two holes that should open up in the Secondary if the Redhawks look to load the box to stop the run.

My only concern in backing the UAB Blazers is that they have not really been able to cover recent marks set by the oddsmakers, but I do expect a big game to send off the Interim Head Coach who is much respected by his players. The Redhawks are 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two non-Conference games and I think they will come up a little short in this Bowl Game, even with the significant amount of points being given to them.

UTSA Roadrunners vs Troy Trojans Pick: The first Bowl Game may involve two teams hoping to finish 2022 with a winning record and give them something to build upon in 2023, but the Cure Bowl involves two teams who have already had extremely successful years.

The Troy Trojans (11-2) won the Sun Belt Conference Championship and Head Coach Jon Sumrall deserves a lot of credit for that. In his first season leading this school, Sumrall was taking over a Trojans team that had finished with three losing seasons in succession and it may have been hard to get an experienced team on board with what he wants to do.

Instead of any pushback, the players have bought into what their Head Coach has been selling and that has seen Troy win the Conference Championship and win at least ten games for the first time since 2018. The Trojans have won ten in a row, but the same can be said for the UTSA Roadrunners (11-2) who are taking aim at winning twelve games in back to back seasons, which would be a remarkable achievement.

Like their opponent, the Roadrunners ended up as Conference Champions having won the Conference-USA title and I have to give both of these teams a lot of credit for not only piling up the wins. As the saying goes, good teams win, great teams cover and both the Roadrunners and Trojans have been covering the spreads placed in front of them frequently down the stretch.

UTSA are led by a veteran Quarter Back in Frank Harris and he has already announced that he will be returning to San Antonio for a seventh season. This is extremely uncommon in College Football and Harris has admitted he thought about moving on, but the Quarter Back is comfortable with the Roadrunners and threw more passing yards this season compared with 2021, whilst also having four more Touchdown passes next to his name.

This is going to be a significant test for the experienced Frank Harris and that is because he is facing a Trojans Defensive unit which has been strong all season. Running the ball against them is going to be a huge challenge for the Roadrunners, but Harris is capable of helping make some moves on the ground.

All the Roadrunners really want to do is give the Trojans something to think about behind their strong Offensive Line and hope that is enough to give Frank Harris enough time to attack the Troy Secondary. It will be far from easy, but Harris is experienced enough to know what he needs to do and there are one or two holes in the Trojan Secondary that can be exposed by the Quarter Back who should surpass 4000 passing yards for the season by the end of this game.

Stopping the Roadrunners completely looks too tough a task, but the Troy Defensive unit will feel they can keep their team competitive and that is all the Offense can ask for. It is the Defensive side of the ball that should be credited the most in helping Troy produce the season they have, but the Trojans will feel they can move the ball effectively enough on the other side to have a chance for success.

However, much like their own Defensive Line, the Trojans may struggle to establish the run against the UTSA Roadrunners. In recent games there has been an improvement from UTSA up front, while the Trojans own Offensive Line has been a touch inconsistent when it comes to pounding the rock and that may put some pressure on Gunnar Watson at Quarter Back.

The passing yards have been decent enough, but Watson has had 10 Interceptions with the 13 Touchdown passes thrown and giving the ball away in this Bowl Game could be the difference between the teams. I do think the added experience in the UTSA rank at the most important position in Football will be the key, although Gunnar Watson should be able to have some very positive moments in the game considering the lack of pass rush pressure he is likely to face.

Ultimately it could come down to a turnover or two in making the difference between the teams and I think that is where my lean is with the UTSA Roadrunners as the two Conference Champions clash early in Bowl season.

Both teams have strong recent trends behind them, but I can see Frank Harris putting the Roadrunners on his back as they look for a first Bowl win in what should be a close, competitive game.

Saturday 17th December

Washington State Cougars vs Fresno State Bulldogs Pick: There has been a lot of upheaval around the Washington State Cougars (7-5) over the last couple of years, but they have won at least seven games in back to back seasons. This is about as successful as things have been in Washington State since Mike Leach departed as Head Coach, and I think there will be plenty of emotions in the stands and on the field in this Bowl Game, the first game that Washington State will have played since the sudden passing of their former Head Coach.

Mike Leach had a big impact at this school and I do think there will a real motivation to try and win this game in honour of the former Head Coach in Pullman. The Cougars were blown out by the Washington Huskies in their last game, but had won three in a row before that and will be looking to snap their run of two Bowl defeats in a row.

They face the Mountain West Conference Champions the Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) who have won eight in a row to bounce back from a disappointing start to the season. It had felt like the Bulldogs were going to fall well short of expectations, but instead they have an opportunity to win at least ten games for the fourth time in six seasons, including back to back years.

Fresno State fans will point to the early injury suffered by Jake Haener, but the Quarter Back has led the Bulldogs on this eight game winning run and he has 18 Touchdown passes to go with 3 Interceptions this season. Jake Haener considered leaving the Bulldogs last season, but that would have been in the transfer portal and instead this could be last game for Fresno State before he tries to make his way into the professional game.

The pressure may be on Jake Haener considering the struggles the Bulldogs have had in running the ball with any consistency, although they are facing a Washington State Defensive Line that has given up some big plays on the ground of late. The threat of Haener may mean there are more opportunities for the Bulldogs to run the ball, but the feeling is that the Quarter Back's arm is going to be the key for Fresno State on this side of the ball.

There has been a few breakdowns in the pass protection, but Jake Haener should have a big game against this Cougars Secondary. The Cougars may struggle to stop the run of late, but they have had issues against the pass all season and this Bulldogs team can show off the ability through the air in this Bowl Game.

Washington State fans will believe their team can at least keep up with the Bulldogs on the scoreboard with the way their own Offense has been operating this season, but they also have to respect the performance level of the Fresno State Defensive unit during their winning run.

This is not an ideal Defensive unit to face- the Cougars are still a team who would prefer throwing the ball than running it, but the Bulldogs Secondary is the strength of the team. The Cougars may have some success running the ball in this one, even if their Offensive Line have been struggling to open gaps up front, but the main challenge will be throwing the ball with any consistency.

Cameron Ward has played well at Quarter Back considering his lack of experience at this level, and he has operated behind an Offensive Line that has not offered the kind of protection he would have hoped of late. However, the Bulldogs have not generated a huge pass rush this season and I think that gives Ward a chance to make a few more plays.

Ultimately I am not sure that will be enough to stay with the Fresno State Bulldogs through the entire four Quarters to be played and I will look for the Mountain West Champions to secure another win.

The Cougars have played well off a straight up loss, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games. Fresno State are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against teams from the Pac-12, and the Bulldogs are going for a fourth Bowl win in a row.

While it should be close for a while, Fresno State can make one or two more plays to pull clear of the Washington State Cougars and they should be able to win this one by around a Touchdown mark.

Monday 19th December

Marshall Thundering Herd vs Connecticut Huskies Pick: An improvement was expected from Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) in the second season under the guidance of Charles Huff at Head Coach and they have surpassed the seven wins earned in his first season at the helm. Now they are looking for a only a second nine win season since 2015 as the Thundering Herd try and win a first Bowl Game in four attempts.

While most expected the Thundering Herd to become Bowl eligible even if they were not able to win the Sun Belt Championship, the Connecticut Huskies (6-6) have to be one of the biggest surprises in College Football in 2022.

Jim Mora was a big hire as Head Coach, but even with the experience he brings to the table, it was a big ask to see a massive improvement from a team who went 1-11 in 2021. In fact Connecticut have won at least six games for the first time since 2015 and they are going to be playing with the motivation of trying to secure a winning season for the first time in twelve years.

All credit has to be given to the Coaching Staff and players for the kind of season the Huskies have had and it is remarkable to think this team has a 10-50 record since 2015 and before this one began. They had won three in a row prior to a defeat to the Army Black Knights, but the Huskies have a second shot to earn a seventh win in 2022, although they are a considerable underdog in this one.

I am not surprised when you think the Huskies are going to be lined up against a very tough Defensive unit and I simply don't know how they are going to move the ball with any kind of consistency in this one. The Huskies are pretty predictable in the approach they want to take in their Offensive game-plan and it is one that may not be as effective against this Thundering Herd team as they would like.

Connecticut want to run the ball and they have been pretty good at doing that this season- the big problem is that they don't offer much of a passing threat and have to deal with a Marshall Defensive Line that has been able to clamp down on the run all season. Even in recent games, the Thundering Herd have held teams to less than 3.5 yards per carry and they will believe they can put the Huskies behind the chains and force them to try and throw into the Secondary.

There have been one or two passing lanes that have opened up against Marshall, but this Huskies team are averaging just 107 passing yards per game this season. Add in the powerful Thundering Herd pass rush and I do think Marshall can make plenty of plays in this one on the Defensive side of the ball to limit the Connecticut output.

The line of scrimmage is so important in any American Football game and Marshall look to have an edge on both sides of the ball. While the Defensive Line have prided themselves on shutting down the run, the Marshall Offensive Line have opened up some big hopes up front and the team have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground.

More of the same has to be expected in this Bowl Game with the Huskies Defensive Line allowing 5.1 yards per carry down the stretch and 166 yards per game on the ground over the course of the season at 4.4 yards per carry. The Thundering Herd should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage and Cam Fancher should be asked to manage the game at Quarter Back rather than trying to win it on his own.

Running the ball should give Cam Fancher some time in the pocket though and he should be able to find the right areas to exploit as the Marshall Thundering Herd finally end the season with a Bowl win for the first time since 2018.

Despite the poor run of losses in Bowl Games recently, Marshall are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 post-season appearances. Trends are positive for the Connecticut Huskies as they have massively overachieved in 2022, but I think they struggle Offensively in this game and that should mean Marshall are able to pull away for the cover.

It is a big spread, but the Thundering Herd can control things at the line of scrimmage and that should see them do enough to move past this number.

Tuesday 20th December

Eastern Michigan Eagles vs San Jose State Spartans Pick: Becoming Bowl eligible is something that the Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) have become accustomed to under the guidance of Head Coach Chris Creighton. However, they have not won any of the four Bowl Games played since 2016 and will be looking to break the run and win a first post-season game since 1987 when playing for the fourth time in five seasons.

The Eagles have to be credited for already winning the most games in a single season under this Head Coach, but rounding 2022 off with another victory would be a big achievement. Before the arrival of Chris Creighton, the Eagles had become a programme that has not been used to winning seasons and the 2022 team could be sat right up behind the 1987 Bowl winners that secured a ten win season for that team.

Nine wins would be huge having only reached that number in the ten win 1987 season, but the Eastern Michigan Eagles are underdogs in this Bowl Game.

The San Jose State Spartans (7-4) are only playing in their second Bowl Game since 2015 and were well beaten as a 9 point favourite in 2020 when facing the Ball State Cardinals. This is the second time in three seasons that the Spartans have won seven games in a single season and they have bounced back from a 2021 season where they finished with just five wins, but San Jose State have been inconsistent at times through this season.

I simply don't know how highly you can rate the Mountain West Conference and the Spartans 'only' finished 5-3 within Conference play, but they do enter the Bowl Game having snapped a two game losing run to beat Hawaii on the road in the final game of the regular season. Unsurprisingly, the Conference record was not good enough to play in the Championship Game, but this is a team who will be motivated to secure a strong end to the season with the extra Bowl practices always important.

The Spartans and Eagles may have similar approaches to their Offensive game plans in this Bowl Game- neither has been running the ball as well as they would like and both will feel their own Defensive Lines can have the edge at the line of scrimmage to force the other to have to rely on the throw to really get the chains moving.

Out of the two, Eastern Michigan's Defensive Line have allowed one or two more openings, but the Eagles may feel their own Offensive Line has been a little stronger of the two in this game. Ultimately it will come down to Chevan Cordeiro for the Spartans and Taylor Powell at Quarter Back for the San Jose State Spartans and Eastern Michigan Eagles respectively.

You have to give Cordeiro a slight edge on the season numbers, but it could be a tough day for him if the Spartans are not able to establish the run. In recent games the Eagles Secondary have stepped up their play, but they have also been able to generate a pretty strong pass rush which may be able to break through the Spartans Offensive Line and make Chevan Cordeiro uncomfortable whenever he is in third and long spots.

He has been careful with the ball through much of the season and that has to be respected, but this is a ball-hawking Eagles Secondary that thrive on mistakes and rushed Quarter Back passes and it may give Eastern Michigan an opportunity to win a second ever Bowl Game.

They will need Taylor Powell to continue from where he left off in the regular season- the Quarter Back finished with 14 Touchdown passes and 7 Interceptions, but Powell had 6 Touchdown passes without an Interception in the last two games of the regular season and that is very encouraging for Eastern Michigan.

Taylor Powell will be further encouraged when he sees the kind of numbers that the Spartans Secondary were allowing at the end of the season following a very strong start to 2022. He has been better protected by his Offensive Line compared with his opposite number and that should mean Powell has some time in the pocket to find the holes in the Secondary and put the Eagles in a position to win this game.

Turnovers could be crucial to the outcome of this close Bowl Game, but I do think the underdog is getting enough points to be backed.

This is a step up for Eastern Michigan compared with the Conference opponents they have been playing, but San Jose State are just 6-13 against the spread in their last nineteen non-Conference games. The Spartans have also failed to cover in their last six overall, while Eastern Michigan are 4-0 against the spread this season when set as the underdog of less than 7 points.

I do think the recent Bowl defeats will have hardened Eastern Michigan and I think they can be backed with the points to at least keep this one competitive, if not win outright.

Wednesday 21st December

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs South Alabama Jaguars Pick: Both these teams may have come short in terms of a Conference Championship, but 2022 has been a strong season for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) and the South Alabama Jaguars (10-2). The Hilltoppers are going for a nine win season for the third time in four years as they attempt to win this Bowl Game, but it has been an incredibly special year for South Alabama who were only beaten out in the race to reach the Sun Belt Championship Game on a tie-breaker with the Troy Trojans.

Any time you can win ten games in a single season has to be celebrated and especially with a school like South Alabama that have suffered losing years every season since 2013.

They have already surpassed expectations by winning ten games and reaching a first Bowl Game since 2016 and there is plenty of motivation within the team to become the first Bowl winners in South Alabama. That should fire them up in what should be a good game between two teams that will be playing with a real confidence and swagger.

With two teams that have done plenty more winning than losing in recent weeks, it is no surprise to anyone that confidence will be high in both camps.

You have to feel that the South Alabama Offensive game plan will be the one with a little more balance, but I do think both teams are going to struggle to run the ball. The Jaguars Defensive Line have been stout against the run all season and it may be a tough test, even for a good Western Kentucky Offensive Line, while the Jaguars have had issues establishing the run with any consistency, but also face a weaker Defensive Line.

Neither team will want to move away from the run too soon, but it is also clear that South Alabama and Western Kentucky will be looking at Quarter Backs who have had very strong seasons for them.

The Jaguars have Carter Bradley who has built on the limited experience he had with the Toledo Rockets and has managed to throw for almost 3000 yards and with 25 Touchdowns. His numbers will be tested by the Hilltoppers Secondary that ended the season in strong form, but Bradley should have enough time to make his plays and has shown he can find the holes to get the ball moving down the field.

South Alabama will be happy with their transfer starting behind Center, but Western Kentucky feel they have unearthed a gem in Austin Reed. Any player moving out of Division II to this level of College Football will be tested, but Reed has looked incredibly comfortable and has over 4200 yards with 36 Touchdowns for the Hilltoppers this season.

Awards have been earned by Austin Reed, but his focus will be on trying to help Western Kentucky to win this Bowl Game. The Hilltoppers Offensive Line have given him plenty of time when he has dropped back to throw and that has made life that much easier for Reed with a similar pattern expected to develop in this one.

I do like the underdog with the points in this one and a backdoor cover should be possible at the very least if Western Kentucky cannot win outright.

The Hilltoppers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five against a team with a winning record, while the South Alabama Jaguars could be feeling some pressure to win a first Bowl Game. I do have to respect the level that the Jaguars have produced this season, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers passing game should keep them competitive.

Thursday 22nd December

Baylor Bears vs Air Force Falcons Pick: The Baylor Bears (6-6) have been something of a mixed bag in the three seasons under the guidance of Head Coach Dave Aranda- they finished with a losing record in 2020, but had twelve wins in 2021 and won the Big 12 Championship, although they were not invited into the College Football PlayOff. This season they have a 6-6 record and this Bowl Game is perhaps more important than it would have been if the Bears had won one more game during the course of the regular season.

Motivation has to be a question mark for the Bears who gave up their Championship crown this season and now have to play this Bowl in the home of the team that took their title, and also a place in the PlayOff later this month.

The Bears ended the season with three straight losses, but that has led to changes with the main one being Dave Aranda now calling the plays on the Defensive side of the ball. It is going to be interesting to see if he holds that role into the 2023 season, but it will be the case in this Bowl Game as the Head Coach looks to take control of his own fate.

A losing record is not likely to end with a firing, but two losing seasons in three years certainly puts pressure on any Head Coach.

While the Bears are going to be questioned as to motivational levels, the Air Force Falcons (9-3) have put together another strong season and Service Academy schools are always gearing their players up to give their best every day. There will be a disappointment that they did not challenge to win the Mountain West Conference, but the Falcons have plenty to achieve with a win on Thursday meaning they would have won at least ten games in three of the last four years.

That would be a remarkable achievement for Air Force and this is a team that most people could guess as to how they will want to play. The Falcons use the triple-option and that means plenty of rushing attacks throughout the game, although just because you know what is coming, doesn't make it any easier to slow it down.

Over the course of the season, the Bears Defensive Line has actually played the run well, but they did have some signs of wear and tear down the stretch in the three game losing run. It is also a different kind of ask of the players to really get themselves up for stopping the run in a Bowl Game, one that is perhaps not the kind of profile they would have expected at the start of the season, and even more so when considering how hard it is to deal with the triple-option Offense even when truly focused on doing so.

The Falcons are not going to throw the ball around, but the play-action could be open to them if they wish to test the Baylor Secondary. Ultimately this side of the ball could be determined by 'how much' the Bears want to try and stop the run and I am not sure they are going to be massively motivated to do that all day long.

Even if the Bears are playing with full focus, they are going to have issues moving the ball themselves as they prepare to face what feels like an underrated Air Force Defensive unit. There is strength at the line of scrimmage and the Falcons will believe they can slow down any Baylor attempts to run the ball, even if the Bears have been competing at a higher level for much of the season and could be the toughest team Air Force have faced.

Being behind the chains would mean having to deal with the Falcons pass rush, but the Bears will believe they can have some success throwing the ball. Over the course of the season, Air Force have been playing the pass pretty well, but, again, you have to consider this Baylor team to be the best they have faced and so it may be tough to have the same Defensive consistency against a Big 12 opponent as they have had against Mountain West opponents.

These two teams both have some strong trends behind them of late, but my lean is with the underdog. I think Air Force can keep this one close and competitive behind their Defensive unit, but the triple-option Offense is not one that Baylor will be used to dealing with and can give the Falcons enough of an Offensive punch to keep this one within the number.

A Field Goal margin of victory for either team looks the most likely outcome of this game and I will back the underdog with the points.

Friday 23rd December

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs Houston Cougars Pick: Matching the incredibly successful 2021 season was never a realistic possibility for Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (6-6), but that does not mean this is not a disappointing season for them. The team had won at least ten games in each of the last three seasons and were expected to defend the Conference Championship won last season much more vigorously than they managed, while they could finish with a losing season for the first time since 2017.

That was before Billy Napier took over as Head Coach, but his departure to the Florida Gators has been difficult for the team.

The Ragin' Cajuns still had a number of experienced players returning for the 2022 season, but they are going to be without some key performers in this Bowl Game as players begin to focus on their moves to the professional ranks. That could leave them exposed when facing the Houston Cougars (7-5), although the Bowl is being played in Louisiana and that could give the underdog some further motivation.

Much like Louisiana, Houston were not expected to match the twelve wins produced in 2021, but the Cougars fell much shorter of the top of the American Athletic Conference than would have been hoped. Head Coach Dana Holgorsen has at least had back to back winning seasons, which does keep these Coaches in the job, and a second Bowl win in a row will give Houston some momentum to take into the next season.

As mentioned, the absence of some key Defensive players that are preparing for the NFL Draft really hurts the Ragin' Cajuns and I do think Clayton Tune and the Houston Offense will be able to do much of what they like in this Bowl Game. Running the ball has been a big help to Tune and I think the Cougars Offensive Line is going to help rip off some big gains on the ground, which can only be good news for a Quarter Back who has almost 4000 passing yards to go with the 37 Touchdowns.

Limited pressure is expected around Clayton Tune who should be able to do what he likes in the pocket as he attacks this Louisiana Secondary. The Cougars are expected to move the ball consistently through the game and I would not be surprised if they don't have to punt the ball more than twice all day.

Being without Defensive figures that have been important all season will also not affect the way Louisiana are able to move the ball when they have it and that is the one concern with backing Houston to win any game. For all of their stunning Offensive play, Houston have been porous Defensively and Chandler Fields will feel pretty good at Quarter Back.

However, the Ragin' Cajuns are also going to be without their top Wide Receiver and that could lead to some issues with sustaining drives and keeping up with Houston in a potential shoot out. It does not help Chandler Fields that the Houston Defensive Line have just stiffened up in recent games and will feel they can control Chris Smith if the Ragin' Cajuns try to establish the run, which puts that much more pressure on Fields and the passing game to get things going.

I do think Louisiana will have some success and playing at home should see them plenty motivated, but they look to have lost too many players for this one.

With a bit more pass rush pressure expected and a stronger Defensive Line, Houston look to have a key edge in this Bowl Game and that should see them win by around ten points.

Neither team has been the best in covering in Bowl Games, but Houston can do enough to win what may feel like a road game by a good margin and go into 2023 with a lot of confidence behind them.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Missouri Tigers Pick: When you play in one of the Power 5 Conferences you are always thinking about a potential career in the NFL- in recent years it has become a trend that players will opt out of 'lesser' Bowl Games to make sure they are ready for the Draft and this year is not going to be any different.

It certainly leaves the Missouri Tigers (6-6) a little short handed in the Gasparilla Bowl with their top Sack artist and other key Defensive players declaring themselves unavailable as they look to make the next step in their careers. The Tigers will be motivated in trying to avoid back to back losing seasons, but other players have decided they want to test the transfer portal and those will also be expected to sit out in the Bowl Game, which makes this a big challenge for Missouri.

Missouri have lost their last three Bowl Games and might have been expecting to face Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) without their starting Quarter Back. Sam Hartman has made it clear that his time with Wake Forest is over, although it is less clear whether that means transferring to another school or trying to push forward into the NFL.

However, in something of a surprise, Sam Hartman has declared that he will play his final game for Wake Forest in the Bowl despite the team failing to reach the ACC Championship Game in what has been a relatively disappointing season.

You may wonder why Sam Hartman would choose to play this game, but it may be something to do with the fact he could become the second ACC Quarter Back to throw for 13000 yards in his career. The only player to do that is Philip Rivers, who had a very strong NFL career, and Hartman will need 313 yards to reach that mark on Friday.

Wake Forest have averaged 314 passing yards per game this season so the target is achievable, although I think it would have been much tougher against a Missouri Defensive unit that had all of their players available. That is not the case in the Bowl Game though and Sam Hartman could have a big day with the Tigers not expected to be as fierce with their pass rush without Isaiah McGuire and DJ Coleman in the line up.

There may also be a bit more room to run the ball and I expect the Demon Deacons to make sure they are in third and manageable spots for much of the afternoon, which gives them and their star Quarter Back a big chance to win this game.

It won't be a blowout though and that is because Brady Cook and the Missouri Offensive unit look to match up pretty well with the Demon Deacons. The Tigers have been able to run the ball pretty efficiently down the stretch and the Offensive Line will believe they can win at the line of scrimmage and at least keep Cook in front of the marker.

Brady Cook may be without his top Receiving target in Dominic Lovett, but he should be under little pressure from the Wake Forest pass rush and will know there are some big holes in the Secondary which can be exploited. Having Lovett would have been massive, but I still think Brady Cook can have one of his better showings of the season having been a little disappointed with his return of 13 Touchdowns to go along with 7 Interceptions.

Ultimately the turnovers could be a problem having to focus on Receivers that have not been as reliable as Dominic Lovett and I think that will hurt Brady Cook and the Missouri Tigers.

They will have successes, but Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons should have more against a Defensive unit missing inspirational players.

Missouri definitely finished the season with more momentum than Wake Forest, but the boost of having Sam Hartman for one more game may lead to a narrow win for the small favourite.

Tuesday 27th December

Georgia Southern Eagles vs Buffalo Bulls Pick: Some teams will be playing in Bowl Games over the coming days with a sense of disappointment that they are not in a higher profile setting, while others will just be pleased for the extra practices and chance to end the 2022 season on a high. This Camellia Bowl between the Buffalo Bulls (6-6) and Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) pits two teams who have improved from last season and who will be looking to end the year with a winning record so there is plenty of motivation for both teams.

Adding to that is the fact that the Eagles are being led by Kyle Vantrease at Quarter Back- he was the Buffalo Bulls Quarter Back last season but transferred to Georgia Southern and it is a match up that both him and the Defensive unit for the Bulls are looking forward to.

Both teams snapped three game losing runs to win their final regular season game and become eligible to play in a Bowl, but the Kyle Vantrease additional factor is one that should have both very focused as they push for a seventh win in the 2022 season.

Ignoring the rest of the Offensive unit that the Georgia Southern Eagles have outside of Vantrease would be a mistake for the Buffalo Bulls. One of the main areas where the Eagles are going to have success is behind the tough Offensive Line which has opened up considerable holes for the rushing attack and now face a Bulls Defensive Line which ended the season struggling to stop the run.

In reality it has been a season-long challenge for the Bulls and I think the fact that Kyle Vantrease will be in third and manageable spots for much of the Bowl Game is a huge advantage for the Quarter Back and his team. He has shown he can get the passing game going in his season with the Eagles too and Kyle Vantrease should have time to make his plays down the field out of play-action, especially against the Bulls Secondary which has had problems.

Of course they do know the Quarter Back and may be able to stop passes with their knowledge of what Vantrease may want to do, but even then, I do think the Georgia Southern Eagles will be able to have a strong day Offensively.

Buffalo are not likely to be blown away having played pretty well Offensively too in the second season under Head Coach Maurice Linguist. They are also facing a Georgia Southern Defensive unit that has had their own problems stopping teams from moving the ball against them, so the feeling is that this is going to be something of a shoot out.

The entire key to the outcome of the game may be at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball- while the Eagles Defensive Line has struggled to make stops, the Buffalo Bulls Offensive Line has not been able to bully teams up front and they will need to find a way to keep their own Quarter Back in third and manageable in order to stay in front of the chains.

Cole Snyder may not have been as effective as Kyle Vantrease, but he has thrown for over 2750 passing yards this season and has 17 Touchdowns to add to that. An issue has been the 8 Interceptions in a game where turnovers may prove to be the difference, while Synder has simply not been as consistent in the passing game as his counterpart on the other sideline.

I think that will ultimately show up in this Bowl Game and Georgia Southern can improve their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five non-Conference games. They have also backed up wins a little better than Buffalo, while the Bulls are 2-7 in their last nine against the spread when playing on a neutral field and it could be a game where a turnover or two allows the Eagles to pull clear and cover this mark.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs East Carolina Pirates Pick: After back to back double digit winning seasons and losing a number of starters from both sides of the ball, Head Coach Jamey Chadwell will have known it was going to be a challenge to keep the standards going at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-3). Instead they have reached another Bowl Game and are going for another double digit winning season when taking on an opponent from North Carolina.

It isn't the Tar Heels or the NC State Wolfpack, but the East Carolina Pirates (7-5) who are trying to put up their most wins in a single season since 2014. They have not played in a Bowl Game since that season after last season's Bowl Game was cancelled during more Covid-19 restrictions, but East Carolina have matched the seven wins earned in 2021 and have kept the improvement going under Head Coach Mike Houston.

They will have been disappointed to not have challenged much more consistently in the American Athletic Conference, but the East Carolina Pirates are still strong favourites in this Bowl Game.

Some of that may be down to the fact that Coastal Carolina have lost their last two games and they will have Grayson McCall playing his last game at Quarter Back having entered the transfer portal. There is always a small chance that McCall will return, but the suggestion is that he has firmly decided to try and leave the team with one last big performance.

Grayson McCall is facing an East Carolina Secondary that ended the season giving up passing yards for fun and he is not expected to be under a lot of pass rush pressure. However, the feeling is that the pressure will be on the shoulders of McCall with the Coastal Carolina Offensive Line struggling to open up rushing yards and now facing a Pirates Defensive Line that has been tough up front.

Some of that is down to the fact that teams will throw and have success against East Carolina, but they have also limited the yards per carry down the stretch. Grayson McCall sounds like he is focused and I think he has a very big game, but becoming one-dimension could be a problem for Coastal Carolina as they bid for an upset.

One much loved Quarter Back will be leaving in Conway, but the same will be happening for this experienced East Carolina team with Holton Ahlers playing his last game at Quarter Back for the Pirates.

Unlike the Chanticleers, the East Carolina Offensive unit looks like it may have a bit more balance than their opponents and that could be key to the outcome of this Bowl Game. The Pirates Offensive Line have been very strong up front and opened up some huge holes for gains on the ground and they will feel they can at least push Holton Ahlers into a position where the pressure is not completely on their Quarter Back.

If they are able to make some gains and move in front of the chains, Ahlers should be able to expose the Coastal Carolina Secondary which has ended the season giving up some big yards through the air. And running the ball is also huge in slowing down the Chanticleers pass rush, which should give Holton Ahlers the time to dissect the Secondary.

The East Carolina Pirates have the edge when it comes to recent trends compared with the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, but the recent experience of Bowl Games is with the underdog.

Both of their recent Bowl Games have ended up in close contests and they may be getting enough points here to allow Grayson McCall to at least earn the backdoor cover for the Chanticleers.

This could be one of the high-scoring games of the post-season, and I do think both teams will have some big passing numbers at the end of it. Turnovers will be key to the eventual outcome of the game, but the feeling is that Coastal Carolina can throw well enough to at least make this huge number of points count in their favour.

MY PICKS: UAB Blazers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UTSA Roadrunners + 1 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Fresno State Bulldogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Marshall Thundering Herd - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Eastern Michigan Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Air Force Falcons + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Houston Cougars - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 1 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Georgia Southern Eagles - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + 8 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)