Things could have turned around completely for this week if I had a little more fortune with the Aljaz Bedene pick on Thursday and he had covered in his win rather than throwing away a late break of serve.
Thursday still had a big impact on the earlier losses this week but I am looking to turn this week around completely over the next couple of days when the tournaments come to a close. We then head to a couple of events next week in the lead up to the draw for the Australian Open which takes place next week just a few days before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
One of the news stories that did pique my interest on Thursday was the news that last year's Junior Boy's Australian Open Champion has been charged with fixing a match. It is all alleged at the moment, but it would be a real eye opener for the authorities who have spent a year really burying their head in the sands about events that seemingly have been happening regularly for anyone who follows the right people on Twitter.
There are some people out there flagging up the 'dodgy' matches, but nothing has really been done about it in my opinion and now it will be interesting to see the follow up to this story regarding Oliver Anderson who is now going to be tarred with the brush of being a 'match fixer'. That will be the case even if this case is eventually thrown out and makes it a tough career for him going forward with every match scrutinised more than most.
Anderson was a player that people had some solid hopes for, but that looks a long way away at this moment.
On Friday we move onto the Quarter Finals in the cases of most of the tournaments being played this week, although we have also got to the Semi Final in a couple of the events. That means there are some big matches out on the courts as players look to throw down their markers for the 2017 Australian Open.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The way Stan Wawrinka recovered in his match against Victor Troicki and then took complete control of the match has to be a confidence boost for the Swiss player who will go into the Australian Open as the Number 4 Seed.
He has a chance to really lay down a marker for what he can achieve in Melbourne Park if he can go on to win the title in Brisbane. However Wawrinka has some big challenges to come even if I expect the first of those to be one that he can deal with relatively comfortably.
2017 could be a really big season for Kyle Edmund who is looking to take the next step in his career and was playing well before Lucas Pouille had to pull out of their Second Round match. Edmund will feel he can get a little closer to Wawrinka having played against him in Shanghai in a match that was closer than the final scoreline might have suggested.
He will need to have more success against the Wawrinka serve having struggled outside of one break of serve, especially as it may ease some of the pressure that Edmund will feel when trying to protect his own service games. I still think Edmund does play too many loose games on his own serve and someone like Wawrinka is good enough to take advantage of those lapses of concentration if he is not being taxed too much on his own serve.
I do think this match is still a little early for Edmund if Wawrinka can play to a similar level as he did in the win over Troicki. While Edmund can have more points won on the return, I still believe Wawrinka can come through with a 63, 64 win to match the score in Shanghai.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: These players met in a pre-season tournament at the Mubadala Tennis Championships and it was Rafael Nadal who came through against Milos Raonic in three sets. Things are going to be a little different when they play in this Quarter Final, but I am going to back Nadal to come through with a victory and a cover.
The spread is a difficult one when you think of the way Raonic can serve and him bringing his very best in that department will make it very difficult for Nadal. However the Spaniard has tended to find a way to get himself into the points and will then feel he can out-rally Raonic, although the latter has been an improving player over the last twelve months.
My issue with Raonic is that he needs to be very close to his ultimate level if he is going to win these kind of events and Grand Slam events and that brings its own pressure. While we have seen Raonic produce some top tennis, notably at the O2 Arena at the World Tour Finals in November, that level is yet to be found consistently.
I also like the way Nadal has been playing this week having won the Mubadala Tennic Championships which will have given him confidence. The serve can still be a little bit of a concern for him, but Nadal has looked after that aspect of his game well enough to think he can win this match. It will be a battle, but I like Nadal to win a tie-breaker and use the momentum to find a break of the Raonic serve which helps him cover this number and move into the Semi Final in Brisbane.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who saw the Alize Cornet win over Dominika Cibulkova in the Quarter Final in Brisbane on Thursday will perhaps have seen the Frenchwoman at her very best. She was serving effectively until the middle of the second set and put Cibulkova under pressure on the return with some very clever shot selection allowing her to keep the Slovakian off-balance.
It is going to be a different kind of test for Cornet when she faces Garbine Muguruza who is capable of producing some huge first serves which will be much more difficult to fight off than the Cibulkova serve. The one concern that remains with Muguruza is whether she is capable of backing up those serves without the errors that have blighted her game over the last six months.
An impressive win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final might have given Muguruza a little more confidence in her ability to produce her best tennis when it matters. She will need to remain patient in this one against an opponent like Cornet who will look to redirect the pace back at the Spaniard and is also capable of making sure she gets more balls back in play than opponents expect.
Cornet has to show she has recovered from her tough Quarter Final which involved a lot of running around the court and both a physical and mental battle which she had to overcome. It can be difficult to do that without too much rest and I think that is a problem for Cornet in this one and I do think Muguruza will have a little too much for her.
I would imagine Muguruza is going to have the majority of break point chances in this one and she can come through with a 63, 64 win for a place in the Final in Brisbane.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: On Thursday I had Elina Svitolina on my shortlist to use the games she was being given to keep things close against Angelique Kerber, but I ultimately felt she needed at least one more game to do that. I was wrong considering Svitolina managed to upset the World Number 1 in their Quarter Final and backing up that victory is going to be a challenge for her.
Mentally it was a big win, but Svitolina has beaten Kerber while the latter has been World Number 1 in Asia after the US Open last season and did win her next match so that aspect isn't a concern. However Svitolina is 0-4 against Karolina Pliskova in their head to head and I do think the Czech player is going to take another step forward in her career in 2017.
Reaching the Final at the US Open in 2016 would have given Pliskova another dose of belief and she has the big serve and heavy forehand which is going to take her deep into tournaments through this season. Mentally she will be stronger with that run too as well as helping the Czech Republic to win the Fed Cup and I do think she has the power to give Svitolina a lot to think about and work out in this one.
I do think Pliskova could be a little better off the backhand and has to learn to deal with players extending rallies, but this is a shoot out and I expect Svitolina to break down a little more. Her serve is not as good as Pliskova's and at big moments I think Svitolina could find herself struggling to cope with the pressure at those times whereas Pliskova can get out of trouble with a big serve.
The head to head gives Pliskova a little more of a mental edge and I think she will battle through to a 75, 64 win and set up a big Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: The run to the Quarter Final for Dudi Sela has come as a surprise when you consider he was an underdog in both of his first two matches in Chennai. Being an underdog in this Quarter Final won't bother Sela, but I do think Albert Ramos-Vinolas can get the better of him in this one.
It has been a good start to 2017 when you consider that Sela has generally spent his best moments on the Tour below the main ATP level and he only had 10 wins at this level through the whole of 2016. The hard courts are his favourite surface so Sela will have plenty of confidence to take into this match, especially in the manner he has won the last two matches.
The level does go up considerably when Sela takes on Ramos-Vinolas who is coming off a career year. The Spaniard might have his best results on the clay courts, but he has shown he can be effective on the hard courts when he has his lefty serve working well and I do think Ramos-Vinolas is going to be able to use the superior level he has been playing at to his advantage.
Ramos-Vinolas has had some solid results on the hard courts even if he did not have a great start to the 2016 season and I think this is a good chance to reach another Semi Final on the hard courts. Both players can have issues on the serve which the other has to look to expose, but I do think Ramos-Vinolas is the better player overall and he can show that over the course of three sets.
In his last eight wins on the hard courts, Ramos-Vinolas would have covered this number on six occasions and I do think he is the more likelier winner. Therefore I will look for him to cover the number in the win and move into the Semi Final.
Benoit Paire - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I will be the first person to tell you that backing Benoit Paire isn't an easy proposition because you don't know when he will suddenly decide that he will throw in terrible shot selections and give away games without much effort.
There were moments in his Second Round win when it looked like Paire was on the brink of throwing away his serve, but he knuckled down at big moments and has to look at this tournament as one he can win. After saving all seven break points he faced on Thursday, Paire is yet to be broken in this tournament and he has to have the confidence to produce his best tennis when he needs it most in this Quarter Final.
There is also a chance that Aljaz Bedene could be a little fatigued having spent a lot longer on court on Thursday than he may have anticipated. While his two wins this week have been impressive, I would argue the level of competition is raised by at least a level in this one and Bedene can't continue to throw in a poor service game or two per set if he is going to upset the Frenchman.
I do think there will be moments when Bedene looks the better player, but I also believe he will give Paire a few opportunities in this one and I like the latter to eventually wear him down and come through. Bedene won a tight match between these players last year at Queens but that was on the grass which is not a surface Paire has shown much appetite for in the past.
The hard courts should favour Paire more and I think he can get the better of Bedene with the narrow cover also achieved.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The final pick of the day also comes from Chennai and I thought Roberto Bautista Agut might be at least a game bigger favourite to win this match against Mikhail Youzhny. I expect a margin of five games between these opponents over the course of this match so I will back the Spaniard to get the better of the veteran in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubt that Bautista Agut and Youzhny are at different points in their career even if the latter had a better season in 2016 than most would have expected. Youzhny's wins this week have come against players he would have been expected to beat and so there is a different pressure on the Russian when going up against Bautista Agut.
Youzhny can still play some very good tennis and he is a fighter which means he should give Bautista Agut some problems against a serve which is not amongst the best on the Tour. However the style that Bautista Agut employs will mean he is going to believe he can out-last Youzhny when it comes to the rallies on the court and there should be plenty of those for the Spaniard to get his teeth stuck into.
The serve has been well protected by Youzhny so far this week, but I think Bautista Agut is the best returner he has faced and I expect there to be break point chances for the latter. I do think think Youzhny will have some opportunities too in a good looking match, but I do think Bautista Agut eventually comes through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 1.10 Units (44 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Chennai Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 6 January 2017
Wednesday, 4 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 5th)
It was a bit of a frustrating day on Wednesday with some of the players being in a position to do much better when it came to clearing the numbers. Others threw in one really poor service game which cost them an opportunity to cover and I was a little disappointed with the returns.
However I am putting that to the back of the mind now and looking for much better on Thursday as some of the events being played this week reach the Quarter Final stage and others will complete their own Quarter Final line ups.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The opening matches of a new season are always going to be difficult for the top players on the Tour as they try and regain the rhythm on the court. This is a time where the tournaments are loaded with some quality players as they prepare for the Australian Open and there have been some upsets in the different events being played.
Dominika Cibulkova managed to avoid an upset on Wednesday by coming from a set and a break down to beat Shuai Zhang to move into this Quarter Final. After winning the WTA Finals at the end of October Cibulkova has to be coming into the 2017 season with a load of confidence behind her and she is going to be a threat at the first Grand Slam of the season having reached the Final at the Australian Open previously.
She doesn't match up as well with Alize Cornet as you might imagine with the latter being able to use the power Cibulkova uses on the court back against her. There is definitely some talent in the Cornet racquet, but she can be emotionally a little unstable which has made it difficult for her to take the next step in her career, but she will appreciate the pace that Cibulkova gives to her and being able to redirect that back at the Slovakian.
These two players had two highly competitive matches at the back end of the 2016 season with Cibulkova chasing a spot in the WTA Finals at that time. Both Cibulkova and Cornet won a match apiece in Wuhan and Beijing and both matches went the distance with very little between then.
There will be a lot of break points in this one and I can see the match needing three sets to separate these players again. That makes the games being given to Cornet very appealing and I will back her to cover with the start.
Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova: A few months ago Garbine Muguruza would have been a big favourite to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova on most surfaces, but the end to the 2016 season has seen her set as the marginal favourite in this one. In most cases the layers believe this will be a pick 'em contest in the Quarter Final with Muguruza as the underdog in some cases, but I think the Spaniard can battle her way past Kuznetsova.
She has needed all the big shots in her locker to come through two tough matches already in Brisbane, but I think those wins will have given Muguruza some mental strength to fall back upon the rest of the way this week. Muguruza could easily have lost either match played this week and Kuznetsova is another level up from the challenges that Sam Stosur and Daria Kasatkina have given Muguruza.
It has been a much easier path through to the Quarter Final for Kuznetsova having beaten overmatched opponents, while she was one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour to end the 2016 season. The Russian finished with her most wins on the Tour since 2007, but she did end up on the wrong side of two losses to Muguruza which has to give the latter the mental edge at the big moments in this match.
Her first serve has to be working to prevent Kuznetsova taking control of rallies and I think Muguruza will like the match up as the former tries to outgun her from the back of the court. The power edge goes to Muguruza and I think she can battle past Kuznetsova and reach the Semi Final in Brisbane as she looks to get her confidence back to the levels they were when she won the French Open title.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: The 2017 season might only be a few days old, but there won't be as many bigger upsets than seeing Serena Williams go down to Madison Brengle in the Second Round in Auckland. It was such a surprise that even Brengle was caught on the microphone at one of the changeovers mentioning that Williams must be playing poorly because she didn't realise how 'bad' Brengle is.
Now I don't think Brengle is as bad as she thinks of herself, but it showed some character to stay in the moment and try to 'junk' her way to a win.
This is a completely different test for her though as the expectation levels will have gone up when she faces Jelena Ostapenko, although the younger player is the favourite heading into the match. We have seen players earning an upset and then struggle to back it up and I do think Brengle might have some difficulty having shown little positive form in the second half of the 2016 season.
That isn't to say Ostapenko was in stunning form herself but it was the first full year on the Tour for the Latvian and I think that took a toll on what she could do from a mental aspect. She still moved up to Number 44 in the World Rankings and Ostapenko has a couple of solid wins under her belt here already this week.
The conditions could be a problem, but I don't think Ostapenko will give out the 88 unforced errors that Serena Williams aided Brengle with and I can see her coming through with a 75, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: It was a very good day for Julia Goerges who had to win two matches on Wednesday to move into the Quarter Final. That will have given her some confidence, but Caroline Wozniacki is a definite raise in level as to what Goerges has faced so far this week.
That means Goerges has to raise her own game but she has matched up well with Wozniacki in the past as shown by their 4-4 head to head record as well as the competitive nature of many of those matches. We know Goerges is not someone who is going to take a step back with her aggression and that means she has found ways to penetrate the Wozniacki defences when playing against someone famed for their defensive skills.
Goerges has a better first serve than Wozniacki which at least gives her a chance to dictate rallies by following up with some aggressive forehands. The consistency is not as good as Wozniacki's though which means the latter is the favourite to come through, but Goerges can take a set in this one which makes the games very attractive.
You have to imagine Goerges is going to be able to fashion some break points and it is all about whether she can take those and put the Number 2 Seed under some pressure. It is Goerges who has won four of the last six matches between these players and it has to be noted that Wozniacki would not have covered this number of games in her two wins in that time.
The only real concern has to be the two matches Goerges had to play on Wednesday, but she has been given ample time to get ready for this match and I like the German with the games to keep this one competitive at least.
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: British tennis is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks to Andy Murray and the likes of Aljaz Bedene, who has switched allegiance to Great Britain, will be hoping to kick on behind the new World Number 1 in 2017.
He made a good start with a win over veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and will be looking to take advantage of the fact that this will be Martin Klizan's first Singles match in 2017. Klizan might be the Number 4 Seed here, but he had a shocking 2016 and has a big title to defend in Rotterdam early next month which might end up seeing him slip drastically down the Rankings.
Klizan went 3-8 on the Tour since winning another big title in Hamburg and he lost his last seven matches in a row in 2016. He also finished 0-8 on the outdoor hard courts which is a big surprise when you think of the talent he possesses and it might take some reversing to get the confidence back into a position it should be.
If both play to the top of their ability you would have to think Klizan is the more likely winner between himself and Bedene on the talent levels. However tennis is so much about confidence and being able to not doubt yourself at the key moments and that is where Klizan has let himself down at times.
When he gets going he can be hard to stop as shown in his title wins, but Bedene might be consistent enough to come through this Second Round match and beat Klizan in his first Tour match of the season.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It has been some time since Yuki Bhambri has been playing regularly on the Tour thanks to injuries and that has seen drop down to outside the top 450 in the World Rankings. Bhambri has talent as a former Junior Australian Open Champion, but getting back up the Rankings is going to take hard work over the next twelve months.
Bhambri has had three decent wins in Chennai having come through the Qualifiers, but the level of competition moves a few steps upwards in this Second Round match. Now I am the first who will criticise Benoit Paire as someone who can throw in an absolute stinker when you least expect it and is clearly someone who has been overrated over the last couple of years.
That was all down to one or two decent performances, but Paire should be too good in this one as long as he serves well and is not giving away games with unforced errors. His first serve should be a bigger weapon than it is, but Paire had a good First Round win in Chennai where he reached the Semi Final in 2016 and that should give him confidence.
It has to be respected that Bhambri has won eight matches in a row coming into this match, but most of those have been against players of a lower standard than Paire, or what Paire should be able to produce. I can imagine the first set has a couple of twists and turns, but eventually I am looking for Paire to come through with a 76, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker: The opening Quarter Final to be played in Doha is between Ivo Karlovic and Fernando Verdasco as these two veterans battle once again on the Tour.
Picking a winner is difficult in this one and the layers have struggled to separate themselves too. I don't really want to get involved in picking a winner, but the almost odds against quotes for the first set to end in a tie-breaker looks a huge one.
All four sets that Ivo Karlovic has played this week have been tie-breakers and he is yet to create a break point while also offering up just four opportunities against his own serve. Someone like Fernando Verdasco is capable of taking his chance when it comes along as he won't back away from Karlovic and his aggressive shots can make things tough for the Croatian if he is protecting the net at break point.
The Verdasco has been working well enough this week to think he won't offer up too many chances to Karlovic as long as he doesn't self-destruct. That is always a concern with Verdasco, but the Spaniard should be good enough to at least protect his serve through the first set when the focus should be at the highest level and I do think both players will end up having to battle through a tie-breaker to decide it.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The last three sets played by Andy Murray in Doha have been very competitive and seen him need 13, 13, and 12 games before he won those. That would suggest he is not at his very best level when you consider those have come against Jeremy Chardy and Gerard Melzer, but Murray is going to be working his way into the 2017 season with preparations being completed for the Australian Open.
Murray meets Nicolas Almagro in the Quarter Final in Doha and I think the veteran Spaniard has already had a successful week by winning back to back matches. However those have not come against anyone of the level of Murray and Almagro will have to turn back the clock if he is going to challenge the new World Number 1.
The hard court performances over the last twelve months won't cut it for Almagro but his serve has been working well in Doha. Unfortunately Almagro has thrown in some poor games behind serve and doing that against Murray will be much harder to recover.
It does have to be said that Murray needs to improve his own serving from the last couple of matches having allowed opponents too many looks into his games. I do think that is an area that Murray can quickly improve and I do think Almagro is going to have a few problems protecting serve against someone who returns as well as Murray and who will look to put the Spaniard in some awkward positions on the court.
After a challenge in the first set, I think Murray will eventually wear down Almagro in a 64, 62 win and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.76 Units (28 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)
However I am putting that to the back of the mind now and looking for much better on Thursday as some of the events being played this week reach the Quarter Final stage and others will complete their own Quarter Final line ups.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The opening matches of a new season are always going to be difficult for the top players on the Tour as they try and regain the rhythm on the court. This is a time where the tournaments are loaded with some quality players as they prepare for the Australian Open and there have been some upsets in the different events being played.
Dominika Cibulkova managed to avoid an upset on Wednesday by coming from a set and a break down to beat Shuai Zhang to move into this Quarter Final. After winning the WTA Finals at the end of October Cibulkova has to be coming into the 2017 season with a load of confidence behind her and she is going to be a threat at the first Grand Slam of the season having reached the Final at the Australian Open previously.
She doesn't match up as well with Alize Cornet as you might imagine with the latter being able to use the power Cibulkova uses on the court back against her. There is definitely some talent in the Cornet racquet, but she can be emotionally a little unstable which has made it difficult for her to take the next step in her career, but she will appreciate the pace that Cibulkova gives to her and being able to redirect that back at the Slovakian.
These two players had two highly competitive matches at the back end of the 2016 season with Cibulkova chasing a spot in the WTA Finals at that time. Both Cibulkova and Cornet won a match apiece in Wuhan and Beijing and both matches went the distance with very little between then.
There will be a lot of break points in this one and I can see the match needing three sets to separate these players again. That makes the games being given to Cornet very appealing and I will back her to cover with the start.
Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova: A few months ago Garbine Muguruza would have been a big favourite to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova on most surfaces, but the end to the 2016 season has seen her set as the marginal favourite in this one. In most cases the layers believe this will be a pick 'em contest in the Quarter Final with Muguruza as the underdog in some cases, but I think the Spaniard can battle her way past Kuznetsova.
She has needed all the big shots in her locker to come through two tough matches already in Brisbane, but I think those wins will have given Muguruza some mental strength to fall back upon the rest of the way this week. Muguruza could easily have lost either match played this week and Kuznetsova is another level up from the challenges that Sam Stosur and Daria Kasatkina have given Muguruza.
It has been a much easier path through to the Quarter Final for Kuznetsova having beaten overmatched opponents, while she was one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour to end the 2016 season. The Russian finished with her most wins on the Tour since 2007, but she did end up on the wrong side of two losses to Muguruza which has to give the latter the mental edge at the big moments in this match.
Her first serve has to be working to prevent Kuznetsova taking control of rallies and I think Muguruza will like the match up as the former tries to outgun her from the back of the court. The power edge goes to Muguruza and I think she can battle past Kuznetsova and reach the Semi Final in Brisbane as she looks to get her confidence back to the levels they were when she won the French Open title.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: The 2017 season might only be a few days old, but there won't be as many bigger upsets than seeing Serena Williams go down to Madison Brengle in the Second Round in Auckland. It was such a surprise that even Brengle was caught on the microphone at one of the changeovers mentioning that Williams must be playing poorly because she didn't realise how 'bad' Brengle is.
Now I don't think Brengle is as bad as she thinks of herself, but it showed some character to stay in the moment and try to 'junk' her way to a win.
This is a completely different test for her though as the expectation levels will have gone up when she faces Jelena Ostapenko, although the younger player is the favourite heading into the match. We have seen players earning an upset and then struggle to back it up and I do think Brengle might have some difficulty having shown little positive form in the second half of the 2016 season.
That isn't to say Ostapenko was in stunning form herself but it was the first full year on the Tour for the Latvian and I think that took a toll on what she could do from a mental aspect. She still moved up to Number 44 in the World Rankings and Ostapenko has a couple of solid wins under her belt here already this week.
The conditions could be a problem, but I don't think Ostapenko will give out the 88 unforced errors that Serena Williams aided Brengle with and I can see her coming through with a 75, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: It was a very good day for Julia Goerges who had to win two matches on Wednesday to move into the Quarter Final. That will have given her some confidence, but Caroline Wozniacki is a definite raise in level as to what Goerges has faced so far this week.
That means Goerges has to raise her own game but she has matched up well with Wozniacki in the past as shown by their 4-4 head to head record as well as the competitive nature of many of those matches. We know Goerges is not someone who is going to take a step back with her aggression and that means she has found ways to penetrate the Wozniacki defences when playing against someone famed for their defensive skills.
Goerges has a better first serve than Wozniacki which at least gives her a chance to dictate rallies by following up with some aggressive forehands. The consistency is not as good as Wozniacki's though which means the latter is the favourite to come through, but Goerges can take a set in this one which makes the games very attractive.
You have to imagine Goerges is going to be able to fashion some break points and it is all about whether she can take those and put the Number 2 Seed under some pressure. It is Goerges who has won four of the last six matches between these players and it has to be noted that Wozniacki would not have covered this number of games in her two wins in that time.
The only real concern has to be the two matches Goerges had to play on Wednesday, but she has been given ample time to get ready for this match and I like the German with the games to keep this one competitive at least.
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: British tennis is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks to Andy Murray and the likes of Aljaz Bedene, who has switched allegiance to Great Britain, will be hoping to kick on behind the new World Number 1 in 2017.
He made a good start with a win over veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and will be looking to take advantage of the fact that this will be Martin Klizan's first Singles match in 2017. Klizan might be the Number 4 Seed here, but he had a shocking 2016 and has a big title to defend in Rotterdam early next month which might end up seeing him slip drastically down the Rankings.
Klizan went 3-8 on the Tour since winning another big title in Hamburg and he lost his last seven matches in a row in 2016. He also finished 0-8 on the outdoor hard courts which is a big surprise when you think of the talent he possesses and it might take some reversing to get the confidence back into a position it should be.
If both play to the top of their ability you would have to think Klizan is the more likely winner between himself and Bedene on the talent levels. However tennis is so much about confidence and being able to not doubt yourself at the key moments and that is where Klizan has let himself down at times.
When he gets going he can be hard to stop as shown in his title wins, but Bedene might be consistent enough to come through this Second Round match and beat Klizan in his first Tour match of the season.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It has been some time since Yuki Bhambri has been playing regularly on the Tour thanks to injuries and that has seen drop down to outside the top 450 in the World Rankings. Bhambri has talent as a former Junior Australian Open Champion, but getting back up the Rankings is going to take hard work over the next twelve months.
Bhambri has had three decent wins in Chennai having come through the Qualifiers, but the level of competition moves a few steps upwards in this Second Round match. Now I am the first who will criticise Benoit Paire as someone who can throw in an absolute stinker when you least expect it and is clearly someone who has been overrated over the last couple of years.
That was all down to one or two decent performances, but Paire should be too good in this one as long as he serves well and is not giving away games with unforced errors. His first serve should be a bigger weapon than it is, but Paire had a good First Round win in Chennai where he reached the Semi Final in 2016 and that should give him confidence.
It has to be respected that Bhambri has won eight matches in a row coming into this match, but most of those have been against players of a lower standard than Paire, or what Paire should be able to produce. I can imagine the first set has a couple of twists and turns, but eventually I am looking for Paire to come through with a 76, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker: The opening Quarter Final to be played in Doha is between Ivo Karlovic and Fernando Verdasco as these two veterans battle once again on the Tour.
Picking a winner is difficult in this one and the layers have struggled to separate themselves too. I don't really want to get involved in picking a winner, but the almost odds against quotes for the first set to end in a tie-breaker looks a huge one.
All four sets that Ivo Karlovic has played this week have been tie-breakers and he is yet to create a break point while also offering up just four opportunities against his own serve. Someone like Fernando Verdasco is capable of taking his chance when it comes along as he won't back away from Karlovic and his aggressive shots can make things tough for the Croatian if he is protecting the net at break point.
The Verdasco has been working well enough this week to think he won't offer up too many chances to Karlovic as long as he doesn't self-destruct. That is always a concern with Verdasco, but the Spaniard should be good enough to at least protect his serve through the first set when the focus should be at the highest level and I do think both players will end up having to battle through a tie-breaker to decide it.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The last three sets played by Andy Murray in Doha have been very competitive and seen him need 13, 13, and 12 games before he won those. That would suggest he is not at his very best level when you consider those have come against Jeremy Chardy and Gerard Melzer, but Murray is going to be working his way into the 2017 season with preparations being completed for the Australian Open.
Murray meets Nicolas Almagro in the Quarter Final in Doha and I think the veteran Spaniard has already had a successful week by winning back to back matches. However those have not come against anyone of the level of Murray and Almagro will have to turn back the clock if he is going to challenge the new World Number 1.
The hard court performances over the last twelve months won't cut it for Almagro but his serve has been working well in Doha. Unfortunately Almagro has thrown in some poor games behind serve and doing that against Murray will be much harder to recover.
It does have to be said that Murray needs to improve his own serving from the last couple of matches having allowed opponents too many looks into his games. I do think that is an area that Murray can quickly improve and I do think Almagro is going to have a few problems protecting serve against someone who returns as well as Murray and who will look to put the Spaniard in some awkward positions on the court.
After a challenge in the first set, I think Murray will eventually wear down Almagro in a 64, 62 win and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.76 Units (28 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)
Saturday, 9 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 9th)
The first week of the 2016 season is virtually in the books and the draws for the second week are already out for those who are interested. We are now less than a week away from the Australian Open draw as that Grand Slam will begin on Sunday night/Monday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom.
The picks have had an up and down week to this point, but there are still a couple of days left for those events to make sure that it is a positive start to 2016 after a pretty poor 2015 season.
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: This is the first Semi Final to be played in Chennai and Stan Wawrinka is in a position to win his fourth title at this event and his third in a row. I am sure Benoit Paire is going to believe he can prevent that from happening, but he has struggled against Wawrinka in their previous head to head matches including two comfortable losses in 2015.
The last of those only occurred a few months ago as Paire continues to struggle to get the most out of his second serve against an aggressive player like Wawrinka. The problem for the Frenchman is simply that he doesn't get a high enough percentage of first serves in play to protect the second serve and I think that gives Wawrinka a clear advantage in the match as it has in the past.
Wawrinka has only dropped two sets against Paire in his six previous victories against him and I have to say the latter has a tendency to 'give up' in sets when the going gets tough. There is no doubt that Wawrinka will have the chances to put together a double break in a single set and the key for this number for him to cover is making sure he serves effectively himself.
That isn't always the case with Wawrinka who can be hard to trust to cover bigger spreads, but I think he has his eye in by this point and enjoys the match up with Paire. His performances in Chennai in the past also means advantage Wawrinka and I think that shows up on the scoreboard in a 63, 64 win.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: The second Semi Final looks like it could be quite an entertaining one as Borna Coric looks to reach another ATP Final, this time at the expense of the British Number 2 Aljaz Bedene.
I have to credit both players for showing off their battling qualities this week to get into the Semi Final with both needing to come from a set down or go the distance to win matches. The time spent on court is similar although Coric played the latest match on Friday which might be the biggest concern for his recovery time.
However, he is second out on court on Saturday and the youthfulness of Coric should help him to be ready for this Semi Final.
The key to the match will come from which of these players can protect the second serve better and I do think Coric can get a higher percentage of first serves in play. That is important as he might be able to get a couple of cheaper points out of Bedene than the other way around, but I expect this to be competitive and it may easily go into a deciding set.
However, I think Coric has the edge in terms of talent and being able to come through more difficult moments and I like him winning this one 63, 46, 64.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This might be the match that will give Rafael Nadal the most knowledge of how far away he is from being back to his best as he takes on the World Number 1. Since the French Open Final in 2014, Rafael Nadal has lost all four matches against Novak Djokovic and he has failed to win a single set in that time, a run of nine straight sets lost.
All but one of those sets has been won by Djokovic 63 or more convincing, with the first set at the French Open last season ending 75 for the World Number 1. And in all honesty Djokovic has looked nigh on unbeatable over the last twelve months while showing off the same here in Doha that it is hard to see how Nadal can get much closer at this time.
The serve has not been totally at its best this week and I think Nadal is unlikely to challenge Djokovic until he is able to find some short returns from that shot. Unfortunately for him, Djokovic's return is an impeccable as ever and I think the Serb definitely loves putting the boot down on his rivals.
I expect this can be close for a while, but I think Djokovic will find a double break in the second set as the pressure from his returns reap dividends. Nadal might win the most games in a single set since the French Open Semi Final last year, but I can only see that in one set and Novak Djokovic winning this one 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.64 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14% Yield)
The picks have had an up and down week to this point, but there are still a couple of days left for those events to make sure that it is a positive start to 2016 after a pretty poor 2015 season.
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: This is the first Semi Final to be played in Chennai and Stan Wawrinka is in a position to win his fourth title at this event and his third in a row. I am sure Benoit Paire is going to believe he can prevent that from happening, but he has struggled against Wawrinka in their previous head to head matches including two comfortable losses in 2015.
The last of those only occurred a few months ago as Paire continues to struggle to get the most out of his second serve against an aggressive player like Wawrinka. The problem for the Frenchman is simply that he doesn't get a high enough percentage of first serves in play to protect the second serve and I think that gives Wawrinka a clear advantage in the match as it has in the past.
Wawrinka has only dropped two sets against Paire in his six previous victories against him and I have to say the latter has a tendency to 'give up' in sets when the going gets tough. There is no doubt that Wawrinka will have the chances to put together a double break in a single set and the key for this number for him to cover is making sure he serves effectively himself.
That isn't always the case with Wawrinka who can be hard to trust to cover bigger spreads, but I think he has his eye in by this point and enjoys the match up with Paire. His performances in Chennai in the past also means advantage Wawrinka and I think that shows up on the scoreboard in a 63, 64 win.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: The second Semi Final looks like it could be quite an entertaining one as Borna Coric looks to reach another ATP Final, this time at the expense of the British Number 2 Aljaz Bedene.
I have to credit both players for showing off their battling qualities this week to get into the Semi Final with both needing to come from a set down or go the distance to win matches. The time spent on court is similar although Coric played the latest match on Friday which might be the biggest concern for his recovery time.
However, he is second out on court on Saturday and the youthfulness of Coric should help him to be ready for this Semi Final.
The key to the match will come from which of these players can protect the second serve better and I do think Coric can get a higher percentage of first serves in play. That is important as he might be able to get a couple of cheaper points out of Bedene than the other way around, but I expect this to be competitive and it may easily go into a deciding set.
However, I think Coric has the edge in terms of talent and being able to come through more difficult moments and I like him winning this one 63, 46, 64.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This might be the match that will give Rafael Nadal the most knowledge of how far away he is from being back to his best as he takes on the World Number 1. Since the French Open Final in 2014, Rafael Nadal has lost all four matches against Novak Djokovic and he has failed to win a single set in that time, a run of nine straight sets lost.
All but one of those sets has been won by Djokovic 63 or more convincing, with the first set at the French Open last season ending 75 for the World Number 1. And in all honesty Djokovic has looked nigh on unbeatable over the last twelve months while showing off the same here in Doha that it is hard to see how Nadal can get much closer at this time.
The serve has not been totally at its best this week and I think Nadal is unlikely to challenge Djokovic until he is able to find some short returns from that shot. Unfortunately for him, Djokovic's return is an impeccable as ever and I think the Serb definitely loves putting the boot down on his rivals.
I expect this can be close for a while, but I think Djokovic will find a double break in the second set as the pressure from his returns reap dividends. Nadal might win the most games in a single set since the French Open Semi Final last year, but I can only see that in one set and Novak Djokovic winning this one 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.64 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14% Yield)
Friday, 8 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 8th)
Thursday has at least turned around the weekly totals for the picks after a tough opening day of the new season.
Friday should be interesting with two really big matches on the ATP Tour as Roger Federer takes on Grigor Dimitrov and Novak Djokovic takes on Tomas Berdych. The lower Ranked players in both matches will be looking for a boost in confidence to take into the first Grand Slam of the season, while the higher Ranked players will be looking to show they are ready to compete for the titles in their positions as favourites.
I am looking forward to seeing how both those matches play out, although timings mean I am unlikely to get much more than the highlights from both.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: These two players meet in Brisbane for the second time in consecutive seasons and Kei Nishikori will be looking to make it two in a row against the home favourite Bernard Tomic. The latter will certainly be looking for a big season in 2016 to show he can make the most of his potential, but this is a tough match up for him against Nishikori who should be healthier than he ended 2015.
It was a good win that Nishikori put together in his Second Round match and he has had a day off since that victory to prepare for this one. Bernard Tomic has had a tougher week against players that he perhaps should have been seeing off a little more comfortably than he did, but I can see him raise his game for this Quarter Final.
The difference between the players has to be the better movement that Nishikori has on the court although I am expecting both to have to dig deep in this one. The rallies should be extended but I think Nishikori is the more consistent player off the back of the court and I am expecting him to grind down Tomic over two long sets.
That edge on the baseline should enable Nishikori to come through with a 75, 64 kind of win and a place in the Semi Final.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: When Roberto Bautista Agut and Borna Coric finish their careers, I do think the latter would have had the bigger impact on the Tour. However, at this stage of their careers I still give the former the edge in the head to head and I expect Bautista Agut to show that off in this Quarter Final in Chennai.
There is a lot of hard work that Bautista Agut puts into his game on the court, but he has an under-rated first serve that can help him set up the points. His defensive work will extract errors from players outside of the top ten in the World Rankings and I expect Bautista Agut to do that against Coric.
I like what Coric is able to do on the court and the potential he shows, but this is still a learning curve for him and a player like Bautista Agut can frustrate him. The Spaniard won't give up anything easy and that can be a mental issue for a younger player who has the big expectations that Coric has on his shoulders.
In 2015 Bautista Agut won both the matches played against Coric on the clay courts, a surface that might suit the latter better than Bautista Agut. This should be an interesting match to see how far Coric has come, but I think he might still be frustrated by the opponent he faces and I expect the higher Ranked player to move through 64, 64.
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Sloane Stephens: The winner of this Semi Final is going to be the big favourite to win the title in Auckland, but the edge has to be given to Caroline Wozniacki. The Danish former World Number 1 has dominated Sloane Stephens with all five previous matches ending with win for Wozniacki and her yet to drop a set.
All of the previous matches have been fairly easy wins for Wozniacki, although these players haven't met since 2014 and some things have changed. For example, Wozniacki is a lot more aggressive than when they last met back in June 2014 and that does mean she will make a few more mistakes than before when she would wait it out and expect the errors to come from Stephens.
Both players have been in dominating their matches this week, but Wozniacki is the better player and I expect that to show up. It will be tougher than previous matches with Stephens capable of throwing in some big games through her sheer power, but I do think Wozniacki is going to be able to extract enough errors from Stephens to set herself up for the win.
After a few breaks of serve for both players, I will be looking for Wozniacki to win this one 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-4, + 2.36 Units (20 Units Staked, + 11.80% Yield)
Friday should be interesting with two really big matches on the ATP Tour as Roger Federer takes on Grigor Dimitrov and Novak Djokovic takes on Tomas Berdych. The lower Ranked players in both matches will be looking for a boost in confidence to take into the first Grand Slam of the season, while the higher Ranked players will be looking to show they are ready to compete for the titles in their positions as favourites.
I am looking forward to seeing how both those matches play out, although timings mean I am unlikely to get much more than the highlights from both.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: These two players meet in Brisbane for the second time in consecutive seasons and Kei Nishikori will be looking to make it two in a row against the home favourite Bernard Tomic. The latter will certainly be looking for a big season in 2016 to show he can make the most of his potential, but this is a tough match up for him against Nishikori who should be healthier than he ended 2015.
It was a good win that Nishikori put together in his Second Round match and he has had a day off since that victory to prepare for this one. Bernard Tomic has had a tougher week against players that he perhaps should have been seeing off a little more comfortably than he did, but I can see him raise his game for this Quarter Final.
The difference between the players has to be the better movement that Nishikori has on the court although I am expecting both to have to dig deep in this one. The rallies should be extended but I think Nishikori is the more consistent player off the back of the court and I am expecting him to grind down Tomic over two long sets.
That edge on the baseline should enable Nishikori to come through with a 75, 64 kind of win and a place in the Semi Final.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: When Roberto Bautista Agut and Borna Coric finish their careers, I do think the latter would have had the bigger impact on the Tour. However, at this stage of their careers I still give the former the edge in the head to head and I expect Bautista Agut to show that off in this Quarter Final in Chennai.
There is a lot of hard work that Bautista Agut puts into his game on the court, but he has an under-rated first serve that can help him set up the points. His defensive work will extract errors from players outside of the top ten in the World Rankings and I expect Bautista Agut to do that against Coric.
I like what Coric is able to do on the court and the potential he shows, but this is still a learning curve for him and a player like Bautista Agut can frustrate him. The Spaniard won't give up anything easy and that can be a mental issue for a younger player who has the big expectations that Coric has on his shoulders.
In 2015 Bautista Agut won both the matches played against Coric on the clay courts, a surface that might suit the latter better than Bautista Agut. This should be an interesting match to see how far Coric has come, but I think he might still be frustrated by the opponent he faces and I expect the higher Ranked player to move through 64, 64.
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Sloane Stephens: The winner of this Semi Final is going to be the big favourite to win the title in Auckland, but the edge has to be given to Caroline Wozniacki. The Danish former World Number 1 has dominated Sloane Stephens with all five previous matches ending with win for Wozniacki and her yet to drop a set.
All of the previous matches have been fairly easy wins for Wozniacki, although these players haven't met since 2014 and some things have changed. For example, Wozniacki is a lot more aggressive than when they last met back in June 2014 and that does mean she will make a few more mistakes than before when she would wait it out and expect the errors to come from Stephens.
Both players have been in dominating their matches this week, but Wozniacki is the better player and I expect that to show up. It will be tougher than previous matches with Stephens capable of throwing in some big games through her sheer power, but I do think Wozniacki is going to be able to extract enough errors from Stephens to set herself up for the win.
After a few breaks of serve for both players, I will be looking for Wozniacki to win this one 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-4, + 2.36 Units (20 Units Staked, + 11.80% Yield)
Tuesday, 5 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 5th)
It feels like only yesterday that Great Britain were winning the Davis Cup and putting a period mark next to the 2015 Tennis Season, but the off-season is not as long as it is in other sports.
Before we knew it, the new 2016 season has rolled around as players have begun their preparation for the opening Grand Slam of the season which begins in Australia in under two weeks time. I am still not completely convinced that the the first Slam of the season should begin just three weeks into the new campaign, but the Tennis Tour have had this quirk for some time and it looks unlikely to change.
The players also have to amend their schedules to take in the Olympic Games this season which take place in Rio de Janeiro in August.
I am looking forward to the season from a viewing perspective as I really want to see if players are able to close the gap on Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic who dominated the WTA and ATP Tours respectively. Both players won three Grand Slams last season while Serena got to the Semi Final of the fourth and Novak Djokovic was a beaten Finalist in the French Open.
The question is whether the other players have made enough of an inroad in the off-season to challenge those two players who will go into the Australian Open as big favourites.
I am expecting a resurgence from the likes of Rafael Nadal and Victoria Azarenka who had disappointing 2015 seasons relative to what they have produced in the past. Roger Federer will certainly feel he still has a Grand Slam left in him, while Andy Murray has seen fatherhood help other players on the Tour and could be a big threat later in the season at Wimbledon and the US Open.
All in all this does look like it will be a fascinating season with the drama beginning this week through to November.
Last season was my worst season making picks on the Tennis Tour by a long, long way! I was in a tremendous position following Wimbledon, but July to November had so little luck and some really terrible weeks as I couldn't find a way to get out of the slump.
That ruined the season totals but 2016 is a new season and I fully expect to bounce back.
I just hope a bit of luck is on my side going forward and I won't have the horrific months of terrible picks and luck combined that destroyed the 2015 season from the position it should have been in.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: The first pick I am making from the new season comes from the tournament in Doha and Tomas Berdych getting his 2016 season underway against Sergiy Stakhovsky. The latter will always be remembered for his win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but he has yet to give Berdych any real problems in matches between them which are led by the higher Seed 6-0.
The ultra-consistent Berdych finished in the top eight of the World Rankings again last season, but he found it much more difficult when facing the top players on the Tour. That was highlighted in his three losses at the O2 Arena in the World Tour Finals, but Berdych continues to be good enough to dispose those players down the Rankings.
His big serve and solid groundstrokes should give him a platform in this First Round match in Doha against Stakhovsky who is never too far from throwing in a sloppy service game or two per set.
It is the first match of the season for Berdych though which has to be a concern. He has lost early a couple of times in his first tournament, but Berdych was dominant in his run to the Final here in Doha last season before finding David Ferrer too good and the big man didn't drop any sets on his way through to the Final while dominating matches.
His previous successes against Stakhovsky should mean Berdych is not too surprised by anything he sees in this match and I think he will prove too strong in a 63, 64 win.
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker has to be in the twilight of a career that never hit the heights that a win over Andre Agassi in the latter's last ever match might have suggested it would. There is some toughness in the German, which shouldn't be a surprise, but he is erratic at best and this could easily be his last year on the Tour.
The desire to compete hasn't gone away just yet though as Becker fought through two Qualifying Rounds to reach the main draw in Doha. Becker battled back from a set down in each of those wins which should have him battle hardened when facing Leonardo Mayer who is making his season bow.
Mayer had a solid 2015 season developing, but he went 7-8 after Wimbledon and missed out on his most wins in a single season from 2014. That also means he is likely to just miss out on a Seeding at the Australian Open but there still might be more to come from the current Argentinian Number 1.
These two met early last season in Australia in a match that saw Mayer use his under-rated serve to keep Becker at bay before cracking through the German's defences. I think this first match of 2016 will go in a similar way for Mayer who is the younger and better player at this stage of their careers.
Of course the fact Becker has a couple of matches under his belt can't be ignored, and I do think that will see him have the edge in range off the ground early in the match. However I expect Mayer to settle into the match and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is every chance that Great Britain will have two players Seeded at Wimbledon this year if Aljaz Bedene can kick on to open 2016. Depending on how quick the ITF can come to a decision this year, there is every chance Bedene is leading the line for Great Britain as they defend the Davis Cup which was won in December.
For now he will concentrate on his first match of the 2016 season as he looks to improve on his Number 45 World Ranking, but it looks a tough match against Vasek Pospisil who is still trying to find his consistency on the Tour.
What Pospisil does possess is a pretty good serve and decent volleying skills, although he can be a little erratic off the ground from the baseline. The Canadian will look to use his weapons to put some scoreboard pressure on Bedene and try and crack the latter that way, although he is likely to be assisted by Bedene who can be a little sloppy protecting his serve at times.
The Pospisil return game can be a little poor at times, but he is likely to get enough balls back in play through his sheer wingspan which can extract errors from Bedene. I expect it will be a tight battle that will take a couple of points here and there to make the difference between winning and losing, but I like Pospisil's chances of getting out of tougher spots behind the big serve and I believe he will eventually prevail in this one 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Before we knew it, the new 2016 season has rolled around as players have begun their preparation for the opening Grand Slam of the season which begins in Australia in under two weeks time. I am still not completely convinced that the the first Slam of the season should begin just three weeks into the new campaign, but the Tennis Tour have had this quirk for some time and it looks unlikely to change.
The players also have to amend their schedules to take in the Olympic Games this season which take place in Rio de Janeiro in August.
I am looking forward to the season from a viewing perspective as I really want to see if players are able to close the gap on Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic who dominated the WTA and ATP Tours respectively. Both players won three Grand Slams last season while Serena got to the Semi Final of the fourth and Novak Djokovic was a beaten Finalist in the French Open.
The question is whether the other players have made enough of an inroad in the off-season to challenge those two players who will go into the Australian Open as big favourites.
I am expecting a resurgence from the likes of Rafael Nadal and Victoria Azarenka who had disappointing 2015 seasons relative to what they have produced in the past. Roger Federer will certainly feel he still has a Grand Slam left in him, while Andy Murray has seen fatherhood help other players on the Tour and could be a big threat later in the season at Wimbledon and the US Open.
All in all this does look like it will be a fascinating season with the drama beginning this week through to November.
Last season was my worst season making picks on the Tennis Tour by a long, long way! I was in a tremendous position following Wimbledon, but July to November had so little luck and some really terrible weeks as I couldn't find a way to get out of the slump.
That ruined the season totals but 2016 is a new season and I fully expect to bounce back.
I just hope a bit of luck is on my side going forward and I won't have the horrific months of terrible picks and luck combined that destroyed the 2015 season from the position it should have been in.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: The first pick I am making from the new season comes from the tournament in Doha and Tomas Berdych getting his 2016 season underway against Sergiy Stakhovsky. The latter will always be remembered for his win over Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but he has yet to give Berdych any real problems in matches between them which are led by the higher Seed 6-0.
The ultra-consistent Berdych finished in the top eight of the World Rankings again last season, but he found it much more difficult when facing the top players on the Tour. That was highlighted in his three losses at the O2 Arena in the World Tour Finals, but Berdych continues to be good enough to dispose those players down the Rankings.
His big serve and solid groundstrokes should give him a platform in this First Round match in Doha against Stakhovsky who is never too far from throwing in a sloppy service game or two per set.
It is the first match of the season for Berdych though which has to be a concern. He has lost early a couple of times in his first tournament, but Berdych was dominant in his run to the Final here in Doha last season before finding David Ferrer too good and the big man didn't drop any sets on his way through to the Final while dominating matches.
His previous successes against Stakhovsky should mean Berdych is not too surprised by anything he sees in this match and I think he will prove too strong in a 63, 64 win.
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker has to be in the twilight of a career that never hit the heights that a win over Andre Agassi in the latter's last ever match might have suggested it would. There is some toughness in the German, which shouldn't be a surprise, but he is erratic at best and this could easily be his last year on the Tour.
The desire to compete hasn't gone away just yet though as Becker fought through two Qualifying Rounds to reach the main draw in Doha. Becker battled back from a set down in each of those wins which should have him battle hardened when facing Leonardo Mayer who is making his season bow.
Mayer had a solid 2015 season developing, but he went 7-8 after Wimbledon and missed out on his most wins in a single season from 2014. That also means he is likely to just miss out on a Seeding at the Australian Open but there still might be more to come from the current Argentinian Number 1.
These two met early last season in Australia in a match that saw Mayer use his under-rated serve to keep Becker at bay before cracking through the German's defences. I think this first match of 2016 will go in a similar way for Mayer who is the younger and better player at this stage of their careers.
Of course the fact Becker has a couple of matches under his belt can't be ignored, and I do think that will see him have the edge in range off the ground early in the match. However I expect Mayer to settle into the match and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is every chance that Great Britain will have two players Seeded at Wimbledon this year if Aljaz Bedene can kick on to open 2016. Depending on how quick the ITF can come to a decision this year, there is every chance Bedene is leading the line for Great Britain as they defend the Davis Cup which was won in December.
For now he will concentrate on his first match of the 2016 season as he looks to improve on his Number 45 World Ranking, but it looks a tough match against Vasek Pospisil who is still trying to find his consistency on the Tour.
What Pospisil does possess is a pretty good serve and decent volleying skills, although he can be a little erratic off the ground from the baseline. The Canadian will look to use his weapons to put some scoreboard pressure on Bedene and try and crack the latter that way, although he is likely to be assisted by Bedene who can be a little sloppy protecting his serve at times.
The Pospisil return game can be a little poor at times, but he is likely to get enough balls back in play through his sheer wingspan which can extract errors from Bedene. I expect it will be a tight battle that will take a couple of points here and there to make the difference between winning and losing, but I like Pospisil's chances of getting out of tougher spots behind the big serve and I believe he will eventually prevail in this one 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Friday, 3 January 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 3rd)
The tournaments this week will continue on Friday and I have to say I was a touch disappointed with the picks on Thursday- it looked like being the chance of a decent week but both Dustin Brown and Florian Mayer had the chance to serve for the match, and the cover for the picks, but failed to do so and missed out.
Fortunately, Gael Monfils completely outclassed Daniel Brands to at least bring that pick in, although it does mean the profit for the week has gone to this point.
We will be playing Quarter Finals and Semi Finals from the tournaments on Friday and we are now a week away from the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open. The big story of the day is likely to come from the Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova Semi Final in Brisbane, the first time they have met since their spat at Wimbledon last year.
It is clear that there are some wounds between two players that have never really liked one another, but that should produce a decent match, although Sharapova would be the first to tell you that she has to start winning some matches if this is to be considered a rivalry in the traditional sense.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Samuel Groth: Samuel Groth took advantage of Kevin Anderson pulling out of the event to beat a Lucky Loser and earn his place in this Quarter Final in front of his home fans, but I believe the run comes to an end.
Groth spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and while he has a big serve that will cause problems on the faster circuits, he can be erratic off the ground and I can see why he may have struggled to get further up the Rankings and playing at a higher level on a consistent basis.
That may be the difference between himself and Jeremy Chardy who played well at Melbourne Park last year and has won a couple of matches already here in Brisbane.
The Frenchman will look to work behind his own serve and can play some very good tennis, although he is another that may struggle for consistency. However, his level of game should be too good for Groth, although the Australian's serve is likely to force at least one tie-break in a 76, 64 win for Chardy.
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Victoria Azarenka had a poor end to the 2013 season which included an early exit at the WTA Championships in Istanbul, but she has made a decent start to the last couple of Tours which has culminated in winning the Australian Open.
Azarenka has won a couple of matches here in Brisbane after reaching the Semi Final a year ago, but I feel she can go at least one step further this year. I don't want to under-estimate Jelena Jankovic who had a resurgence in form last year to move back into the top ten in the World Rankings.
Jankovic was one of the players that beat Azarenka in the WTA Championships Group Stage and also snapped a 4 match losing run against her with that win.
Both women came through three set matches in the Quarter Finals, but Azarenka played in the 'cooler' night conditions and may be in a better place physically, although she hasn't played during the day just yet. If Azarenka can handle the change in conditions, I expect her to come through a tight match with a 64, 64 win.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned earlier, there is no love lost between these two leading contenders on the WTA Tour and I am backing Serena Williams to come through with a comfortable win against an opponent that missed the last four months on the Tour last season.
It was the pain in the shoulder that forced Sharapova to miss most of the Tour after being surprised in the Second Round at Wimbledon and that meant she was serving with pain. In her Quarter Final win over Kaia Kanepi, Sharapova struggled with her serve to open the match and those issues will be severely punished by someone as good as Williams.
There is no doubt that this is the one opponent that will usually bring the best out of Williams with their off-court issues dominating the headlines. At the moment, Sharapova looks too undercooked to reverse the trend of losing 13 matches in a row in which she has won just 3 sets, and I like Serena to come through with a 62, 64 win.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: One of the more polarising up and coming players on the Tour last season was Benoit Paire who seemed to be over-rated by many off the back off a strong run at the Rome Masters during the clay court season.
There is a lot to like about the Paire game, but he struggled to reach those same heights during the rest of the season although he did reach the Semi Final in Chennai last year and has the chance to do the same again to open the 2014 season.
Paire has a decent serve, looks fairly comfortable on the ground and I think he will move up from his current position of 26 in the World Rankings. With that in mind, I expect him to be a little too good for the solid Spaniard Marcel Granollers who is better known for his exploits on the Doubles Tour rather than the Singles.
Granollers did have a decent season last year as a Singles player, but I think he has taken advantage of an extremely kind draw here in Chennai to reach the Quarter Finals and that will come to an end here. The Spaniard has a game that does transfer onto the hard courts effectively, but I still think Paire comes through 64, 64.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It took a Fabio Fognini retirement in the second set to save my pick against Yuki Bhambri yesterday, but I think Vasek Pospisil has the big game to see off the young Indian player in this Quarter Final.
Pospisil improved his position in the World Rankings following the Canadian Masters last summer and that seems to have given him a boost in confidence- little things like that can turn a player loose and playing with that confidence could see him reach the Semi Final here.
He will have the chance to win a few cheap points on serve and the pressure that shot can create on his opponent may see someone like Bhambri snap a couple of times in the match. It can wear down on a player mentally if they are not getting too many chances to break serve and knowing they need to keep holding serve makes them perhaps push a little too hard with nervous energy flowing through them.
That might be the fate for Bhambri in what could ultimately be a 64, 64 loss.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: Has Gael Monfils finally turned a corner as a professional tennis player and is now ready to challenge the best players on the Tour on a regular basis? It is hard to fully trust him, but if he keeps up the form displayed in Doha, he will be a dangerous player throughout 2014.
Monfils crushed Daniel Brands in the Quarter Final, a player that had beaten him three times in a row in 2013, which follows an impressive win over Richard Gasquet. Now he has a strong chance of reaching the Final here as he faces Florian Mayer, a player he has beaten in all 4 previous matches.
We know Mayer is an unpredictable player that can be hard to get a read on, but Monfils has the athleticism to deal with the short drop shots that the German tends to use and also has a big serve to keep Mayer on his toes.
I do think Monfils will create chances to break the Mayer serve and, as long as he serves well, the Frenchman may just reach the Final with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 0.97 Units (19 Units Staked, - 5.10% Yield)
Fortunately, Gael Monfils completely outclassed Daniel Brands to at least bring that pick in, although it does mean the profit for the week has gone to this point.
We will be playing Quarter Finals and Semi Finals from the tournaments on Friday and we are now a week away from the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open. The big story of the day is likely to come from the Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova Semi Final in Brisbane, the first time they have met since their spat at Wimbledon last year.
It is clear that there are some wounds between two players that have never really liked one another, but that should produce a decent match, although Sharapova would be the first to tell you that she has to start winning some matches if this is to be considered a rivalry in the traditional sense.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Samuel Groth: Samuel Groth took advantage of Kevin Anderson pulling out of the event to beat a Lucky Loser and earn his place in this Quarter Final in front of his home fans, but I believe the run comes to an end.
Groth spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and while he has a big serve that will cause problems on the faster circuits, he can be erratic off the ground and I can see why he may have struggled to get further up the Rankings and playing at a higher level on a consistent basis.
That may be the difference between himself and Jeremy Chardy who played well at Melbourne Park last year and has won a couple of matches already here in Brisbane.
The Frenchman will look to work behind his own serve and can play some very good tennis, although he is another that may struggle for consistency. However, his level of game should be too good for Groth, although the Australian's serve is likely to force at least one tie-break in a 76, 64 win for Chardy.
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Victoria Azarenka had a poor end to the 2013 season which included an early exit at the WTA Championships in Istanbul, but she has made a decent start to the last couple of Tours which has culminated in winning the Australian Open.
Azarenka has won a couple of matches here in Brisbane after reaching the Semi Final a year ago, but I feel she can go at least one step further this year. I don't want to under-estimate Jelena Jankovic who had a resurgence in form last year to move back into the top ten in the World Rankings.
Jankovic was one of the players that beat Azarenka in the WTA Championships Group Stage and also snapped a 4 match losing run against her with that win.
Both women came through three set matches in the Quarter Finals, but Azarenka played in the 'cooler' night conditions and may be in a better place physically, although she hasn't played during the day just yet. If Azarenka can handle the change in conditions, I expect her to come through a tight match with a 64, 64 win.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned earlier, there is no love lost between these two leading contenders on the WTA Tour and I am backing Serena Williams to come through with a comfortable win against an opponent that missed the last four months on the Tour last season.
It was the pain in the shoulder that forced Sharapova to miss most of the Tour after being surprised in the Second Round at Wimbledon and that meant she was serving with pain. In her Quarter Final win over Kaia Kanepi, Sharapova struggled with her serve to open the match and those issues will be severely punished by someone as good as Williams.
There is no doubt that this is the one opponent that will usually bring the best out of Williams with their off-court issues dominating the headlines. At the moment, Sharapova looks too undercooked to reverse the trend of losing 13 matches in a row in which she has won just 3 sets, and I like Serena to come through with a 62, 64 win.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: One of the more polarising up and coming players on the Tour last season was Benoit Paire who seemed to be over-rated by many off the back off a strong run at the Rome Masters during the clay court season.
There is a lot to like about the Paire game, but he struggled to reach those same heights during the rest of the season although he did reach the Semi Final in Chennai last year and has the chance to do the same again to open the 2014 season.
Paire has a decent serve, looks fairly comfortable on the ground and I think he will move up from his current position of 26 in the World Rankings. With that in mind, I expect him to be a little too good for the solid Spaniard Marcel Granollers who is better known for his exploits on the Doubles Tour rather than the Singles.
Granollers did have a decent season last year as a Singles player, but I think he has taken advantage of an extremely kind draw here in Chennai to reach the Quarter Finals and that will come to an end here. The Spaniard has a game that does transfer onto the hard courts effectively, but I still think Paire comes through 64, 64.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It took a Fabio Fognini retirement in the second set to save my pick against Yuki Bhambri yesterday, but I think Vasek Pospisil has the big game to see off the young Indian player in this Quarter Final.
Pospisil improved his position in the World Rankings following the Canadian Masters last summer and that seems to have given him a boost in confidence- little things like that can turn a player loose and playing with that confidence could see him reach the Semi Final here.
He will have the chance to win a few cheap points on serve and the pressure that shot can create on his opponent may see someone like Bhambri snap a couple of times in the match. It can wear down on a player mentally if they are not getting too many chances to break serve and knowing they need to keep holding serve makes them perhaps push a little too hard with nervous energy flowing through them.
That might be the fate for Bhambri in what could ultimately be a 64, 64 loss.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: Has Gael Monfils finally turned a corner as a professional tennis player and is now ready to challenge the best players on the Tour on a regular basis? It is hard to fully trust him, but if he keeps up the form displayed in Doha, he will be a dangerous player throughout 2014.
Monfils crushed Daniel Brands in the Quarter Final, a player that had beaten him three times in a row in 2013, which follows an impressive win over Richard Gasquet. Now he has a strong chance of reaching the Final here as he faces Florian Mayer, a player he has beaten in all 4 previous matches.
We know Mayer is an unpredictable player that can be hard to get a read on, but Monfils has the athleticism to deal with the short drop shots that the German tends to use and also has a big serve to keep Mayer on his toes.
I do think Monfils will create chances to break the Mayer serve and, as long as he serves well, the Frenchman may just reach the Final with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 0.97 Units (19 Units Staked, - 5.10% Yield)
Thursday, 2 January 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 2nd)
There were some contrasting fortunes for the picks on New Year's Day as Roger Federer marched into the Quarter Final in Brisbane, but Andy Murray was knocked out in the Second Round in Doha.
The individual picks for the day went 2-2 for the second day in a row, but fortunately the unit-managing has meant the profit has improved for the week, albeit by a smaller amount than I would have liked.
It's a long season on the tennis Tour so there is no reason to be alarmed and I would much rather have a winning start to the season than the other way around.
Fabio Fognini win 2-0 v Yuki Bhambri: This is Fabio Fognini's first match of the new season and he is hardly someone that you would back with any real confidence, even in a match where he seems to have most of the aces.
Fognini had a decent middle of last season which saw him moving up the Rankings, but he hasn't really kicked on in the manner that some would have hoped.
His game will always give opponents a chance as he doesn't have the overwhelming shot and has to grind players down. However, that grinding side to his game should work well enough against Yuki Bhambri who has been given a Wild Card into the event.
The young Indian player had a decent win in the First Round which will give him some confidence but I am not sure if he has the consistency to beat someone like Fognini who will try and get as many balls back in play and force Bhambri to perhaps push a little too hard.
I think Fognini should be a little too good, but can't have anything more than a small interest in the Italian winning this one in straight sets.
Dustin Brown - 1.5 games v Peter Gojowcyzk: I don't think too many people would have predicted this to be a Quarter Final in Doha this week and the winner will not only earn some very important Ranking points, but they will also have the chance to perhaps take on Rafael Nadal for a place in the Final this weekend.
That should motivate Dustin Brown and Peter Gojowcyzk no end in this match and both players are coming off tough Second Round wins. After coming through the qualifiers, fitness will also be an important factor to separate the players, but Dustin Brown will have good memories of beating Gojowcyzk here last year.
Brown's win in the qualifiers last year over Gojowcyzk improved his record to 3-1 between these players that would both know each other fairly well as both are based in Germany. I do think Brown has the more unpredictable game, especially if he is half a step slow to the net with his attacking tennis after a week on the court under his feet.
However, Brown has the experience of beating this opponent and has a game that looks like one that can cause a lot of problems for players outside of the top 100 and I will look for him to come through 63, 46, 64.
Florian Mayer - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: I am not a fan of backing a player immediately after they are coming off a huge surprise win, but I do think Florian Mayer can follow his win over Andy Murray with another in this Quarter Final.
Coming off a surprise victory can be tough for players from an emotional standpoint and it can be tough to invest the necessary concentration for the next match, especially when coming up against an unheralded opponent. Victor Hanescu is certainly much more comfortable on the clay courts these days, and he too is coming off a surprise win when beating Fernando Verdasco in three sets.
Hanescu does have a game that can earn him a lot of points on the faster surfaces, but I think he has lost a step when it comes to defending on these courts and that hasn't helped his record which was a poor 2-9 on the outdoor hard courts last season.
He will be able to have a go at the Mayer serve, but the erratic and unpredictable play of the German is much more difficult to read at times. The first set may be close, but I have a feeling that Mayer will be able to come through and then follow that with a more straight-forward second set to go through to the Semi Final with a 76, 63 win.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Daniel Brands: It was one of the strange occurrences of the early portion of the 2013 season that Daniel Brands beat Gael Monfils in all three matches they played before the French Open including here in Doha at the same stage.
So why am I taking Monfils? I think a lot of last season was down to the fact that Monfils was trying to play through injuries and I believe the Frenchman is the more talented player, even if he is the more unpredictable too.
Daniel Brands has a decent serve, but I don't think he is that effective on the ground and I think Monfils has the game that should be able to wear him down. It didn't last season and Monfils will have to serve a lot better to make sure he is in a position to get his first win over Brands, but there were signs at the end of last season that Monfils was returning to form.
The flamboyant Frenchman played well against Richard Gasquet and I think he will be motivated to at least start righting the head to head between these players and I like Monfils to come through 64 76.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini win 2-0 @ 2.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dustin Brown - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, + 1.43 Units (13 Units Staked, + 11% Yield)
The individual picks for the day went 2-2 for the second day in a row, but fortunately the unit-managing has meant the profit has improved for the week, albeit by a smaller amount than I would have liked.
It's a long season on the tennis Tour so there is no reason to be alarmed and I would much rather have a winning start to the season than the other way around.
Fabio Fognini win 2-0 v Yuki Bhambri: This is Fabio Fognini's first match of the new season and he is hardly someone that you would back with any real confidence, even in a match where he seems to have most of the aces.
Fognini had a decent middle of last season which saw him moving up the Rankings, but he hasn't really kicked on in the manner that some would have hoped.
His game will always give opponents a chance as he doesn't have the overwhelming shot and has to grind players down. However, that grinding side to his game should work well enough against Yuki Bhambri who has been given a Wild Card into the event.
The young Indian player had a decent win in the First Round which will give him some confidence but I am not sure if he has the consistency to beat someone like Fognini who will try and get as many balls back in play and force Bhambri to perhaps push a little too hard.
I think Fognini should be a little too good, but can't have anything more than a small interest in the Italian winning this one in straight sets.
Dustin Brown - 1.5 games v Peter Gojowcyzk: I don't think too many people would have predicted this to be a Quarter Final in Doha this week and the winner will not only earn some very important Ranking points, but they will also have the chance to perhaps take on Rafael Nadal for a place in the Final this weekend.
That should motivate Dustin Brown and Peter Gojowcyzk no end in this match and both players are coming off tough Second Round wins. After coming through the qualifiers, fitness will also be an important factor to separate the players, but Dustin Brown will have good memories of beating Gojowcyzk here last year.
Brown's win in the qualifiers last year over Gojowcyzk improved his record to 3-1 between these players that would both know each other fairly well as both are based in Germany. I do think Brown has the more unpredictable game, especially if he is half a step slow to the net with his attacking tennis after a week on the court under his feet.
However, Brown has the experience of beating this opponent and has a game that looks like one that can cause a lot of problems for players outside of the top 100 and I will look for him to come through 63, 46, 64.
Florian Mayer - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: I am not a fan of backing a player immediately after they are coming off a huge surprise win, but I do think Florian Mayer can follow his win over Andy Murray with another in this Quarter Final.
Coming off a surprise victory can be tough for players from an emotional standpoint and it can be tough to invest the necessary concentration for the next match, especially when coming up against an unheralded opponent. Victor Hanescu is certainly much more comfortable on the clay courts these days, and he too is coming off a surprise win when beating Fernando Verdasco in three sets.
Hanescu does have a game that can earn him a lot of points on the faster surfaces, but I think he has lost a step when it comes to defending on these courts and that hasn't helped his record which was a poor 2-9 on the outdoor hard courts last season.
He will be able to have a go at the Mayer serve, but the erratic and unpredictable play of the German is much more difficult to read at times. The first set may be close, but I have a feeling that Mayer will be able to come through and then follow that with a more straight-forward second set to go through to the Semi Final with a 76, 63 win.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Daniel Brands: It was one of the strange occurrences of the early portion of the 2013 season that Daniel Brands beat Gael Monfils in all three matches they played before the French Open including here in Doha at the same stage.
So why am I taking Monfils? I think a lot of last season was down to the fact that Monfils was trying to play through injuries and I believe the Frenchman is the more talented player, even if he is the more unpredictable too.
Daniel Brands has a decent serve, but I don't think he is that effective on the ground and I think Monfils has the game that should be able to wear him down. It didn't last season and Monfils will have to serve a lot better to make sure he is in a position to get his first win over Brands, but there were signs at the end of last season that Monfils was returning to form.
The flamboyant Frenchman played well against Richard Gasquet and I think he will be motivated to at least start righting the head to head between these players and I like Monfils to come through 64 76.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini win 2-0 @ 2.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dustin Brown - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, + 1.43 Units (13 Units Staked, + 11% Yield)
Tuesday, 31 December 2013
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 1st)
I hope everyone had a great New Year doing whatever they did and I hope 2014 is a great year for everyone.
The first days of the tennis season have begun and we are moving through the tournament with Second Round matches to be played on Wednesday 1st January 2014. The likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have moved through in Doha and now Roger Federer begins his new season in Brisbane.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: This was a tournament where Grigor Dimitrov reached the Final last season and he has made a positive start to the First Round with a comfortable win over Robin Haase.
I expect he can prove to be too strong for Marin Cilic after the Croatian battled through against Denis Istomin in the First Round, although it won't be easy.
I like the fact that Dimitrov is perhaps a little stronger when it comes to the serve and might be able to earn a few more cheaper points in this one. There is also the feeling that Cilic may still be recovering from the four month suspension he had to serve from Wimbledon and that may see him just lose a little focus at the wrong time in this kind of match.
Cilic did serve well against Istomin in the last Round, but Dimitrov is a better returner and I think he proves too tough to come through with a 76, 64 win.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Matthew Ebden: Matthew Ebden is playing in front of home support for the first month of the season and came through a First Round match comfortably enough to set himself up for this Second Round match against the Number 2 seed.
It isn't a great match up for Ebden as Nishikori is capable of making the best players hit one more ball and he should be able to expose the flaws in the Australian's game by forcing him to hit closer and closer to the lines.
Kei Nishikori is not someone I hold a lot of faith in because he hasn't found the balance to become a real threat at the Grand Slam level- personally I feel you have to have a big 'get out of jail' shot in the locker in those events and he offers too many chances to his opponents.
He has beaten Ebden in their two previous meetings, although it took five sets to see him off at the Australian Open a couple of years ago. On this occasion, I think it could go more along the same lines as their match at Wimbledon last summer, and I like Nishikori to come through 64, 64.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker will always be known as the man who ended in Andre Agassi's professional career, and that has proven to be the highest point of his life on the Tour.
Sometimes I do watch Becker play and feel he should have done better with the tools at his disposal, but he is far too inconsistent off the ground and can be vulnerable if the serve is not working as well as it can at times.
If Becker serves well, he can certainly make it a tough match for Stanislas Wawrinka to overcome, but if he is slightly below his game, it will make life that much easier for the Swiss player. Wawrinka is coming off his best year on the Tour when he made it to the World Tour Finals in London and will be looking to build on that.
He does look the best player by some distance in the Chennai tournament, but he has to avoid being caught cold in his first match of the week against a player that has one win under his belt. If Wawrinka comes out with the right mentality, I do think he will win this one 63, 64.
Richard Gasquet v Gael Monfils: This looks the match of the day in Doha and the layers are finding it tough to separate the two Frenchmen although I am surprised that it is Gael Monfils set as the favourite and not Richard Gasquet.
Gasquet is the defending Champion at the event and has also won 3 of the last 4 matches between these two. He has looked far more confident over the last twelve months and is capable of some stunning tennis that may be a little too good for Gael Monfils in this Second Round.
There is no doubt that Monfils has the better athletic attributes as he is much faster around the court, but he has been guilty of being too passive when it comes to shot selection and that may just allow Gasquet to control the rallies. Monfils ability to get the ball back in play can be a problem if his opponent makes too many mistakes, but the confidence in the Gasquet game may see him deal with those issues.
It is unlikely to be decided in straight sets, and Monfils is a former Finalist in Doha, but I like Gasquet for a small interest in this one.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0.73 Units (6 Units, + 12.17% Yield)
The first days of the tennis season have begun and we are moving through the tournament with Second Round matches to be played on Wednesday 1st January 2014. The likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have moved through in Doha and now Roger Federer begins his new season in Brisbane.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: This was a tournament where Grigor Dimitrov reached the Final last season and he has made a positive start to the First Round with a comfortable win over Robin Haase.
I expect he can prove to be too strong for Marin Cilic after the Croatian battled through against Denis Istomin in the First Round, although it won't be easy.
I like the fact that Dimitrov is perhaps a little stronger when it comes to the serve and might be able to earn a few more cheaper points in this one. There is also the feeling that Cilic may still be recovering from the four month suspension he had to serve from Wimbledon and that may see him just lose a little focus at the wrong time in this kind of match.
Cilic did serve well against Istomin in the last Round, but Dimitrov is a better returner and I think he proves too tough to come through with a 76, 64 win.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Matthew Ebden: Matthew Ebden is playing in front of home support for the first month of the season and came through a First Round match comfortably enough to set himself up for this Second Round match against the Number 2 seed.
It isn't a great match up for Ebden as Nishikori is capable of making the best players hit one more ball and he should be able to expose the flaws in the Australian's game by forcing him to hit closer and closer to the lines.
Kei Nishikori is not someone I hold a lot of faith in because he hasn't found the balance to become a real threat at the Grand Slam level- personally I feel you have to have a big 'get out of jail' shot in the locker in those events and he offers too many chances to his opponents.
He has beaten Ebden in their two previous meetings, although it took five sets to see him off at the Australian Open a couple of years ago. On this occasion, I think it could go more along the same lines as their match at Wimbledon last summer, and I like Nishikori to come through 64, 64.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker will always be known as the man who ended in Andre Agassi's professional career, and that has proven to be the highest point of his life on the Tour.
Sometimes I do watch Becker play and feel he should have done better with the tools at his disposal, but he is far too inconsistent off the ground and can be vulnerable if the serve is not working as well as it can at times.
If Becker serves well, he can certainly make it a tough match for Stanislas Wawrinka to overcome, but if he is slightly below his game, it will make life that much easier for the Swiss player. Wawrinka is coming off his best year on the Tour when he made it to the World Tour Finals in London and will be looking to build on that.
He does look the best player by some distance in the Chennai tournament, but he has to avoid being caught cold in his first match of the week against a player that has one win under his belt. If Wawrinka comes out with the right mentality, I do think he will win this one 63, 64.
Richard Gasquet v Gael Monfils: This looks the match of the day in Doha and the layers are finding it tough to separate the two Frenchmen although I am surprised that it is Gael Monfils set as the favourite and not Richard Gasquet.
Gasquet is the defending Champion at the event and has also won 3 of the last 4 matches between these two. He has looked far more confident over the last twelve months and is capable of some stunning tennis that may be a little too good for Gael Monfils in this Second Round.
There is no doubt that Monfils has the better athletic attributes as he is much faster around the court, but he has been guilty of being too passive when it comes to shot selection and that may just allow Gasquet to control the rallies. Monfils ability to get the ball back in play can be a problem if his opponent makes too many mistakes, but the confidence in the Gasquet game may see him deal with those issues.
It is unlikely to be decided in straight sets, and Monfils is a former Finalist in Doha, but I like Gasquet for a small interest in this one.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0.73 Units (6 Units, + 12.17% Yield)
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