This is looking a really good tournament for the tennis picks after a difficult start to the season. Monday was another solid day for the picks to keep the tournament trending in a positive direction, but there are still a number of days to go to ensure this is a good week at Indian Wells.
On Tuesday we get to see the full Fourth Round of the WTA Premier Event, while the Fourth Round line up for the ATP Masters is completed.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: This looks a difficult match for Kei Nishikori on paper depending on what Steve Johnson turns up on Tuesday, but I think the conditions in Indian Wells should help the higher Ranked player get through to the Fourth Round. While the ball is flying, the courts are not the quickest so the extra athleticism that Nishikori shows on the court compared with Johnson could be the key factor of the match.
As easy as Johnson's win in the Second Round might not when glancing at the scoreboard, it has to be remembered that he was struggling to hold serve in the first set. That isn't going to help him beat someone of the quality of Nishikori who has won all three previous matches against Johnson.
Recent form hasn't been the best for Johnson and I am not sure he will be in the best mental state to beat someone like Nishikori. While the latter might have expected more from his 2016 season to this point, he is a player that protects his serve better than you'd expect against the lesser players on the Tour although Nishikori has yet to put it all together in Indian Wells.
The match up is one that Nishikori should be encouraged by though and I think he will battle through one set before pulling away for a 76, 62 win.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: I backed John Isner in the Second Round to cover this same number of games against Andreas Seppi and it was only one poor service game when serving for the match that prevented him doing that. This match will have a similar feel to the last one for Isner and I think he will be able to cover the games this time around.
There is the difference that Adrian Mannarino will be serving left-handed which means it will naturally be going into the weaker backhand wing, but the serve is much like Seppi's in not being an overwhelming shot. While Isner's return is not amongst the best on the Tour, he should get to see enough of the ball on the return to have success and I expect he will find a way to break serve a couple of times in this match.
It will come down to whether Isner can get through the difficult moments on serve more effectively than he did against Seppi. There was no way he should have been broken when he was in that match, but the American was very good behind serve for most of that one and a similar level will be difficult for Mannarino to deal with.
Isner does have a strong record against Mannarino so should be aware of the approach that the lefty will bring into the match. I think he will get his chances on the return of serve to find the breaks at the right moment in this match and I like Isner coming through 63, 76 to cover these games at odds against.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: I do wonder what kind of emotional state Rafael Nadal is in after revealing he is now going to sue anyone who makes any suggestion that he has failed a drugs test in the past. This whole issue seems to be really revolving around Nadal over the last few days since the Maria Sharapova failed test and it has to be having an emotional impact on him.
He now has to face his Doubles partner from this week and the player who beat him in the First Round at the Australian Open in compatriot Fernando Verdasco who has won three of their last four matches. Verdasco has the heavy groundstrokes to put Nadal under some immense pressure, but I like the latter to come through this one as I am still of the belief that he should have beaten Verdasco at Melbourne Park.
Nadal will have to be more solid behind serve than he was in his Second Round win over Gilles Muller, but it was still a good win for him to build some confidence. He is also facing Verdasco who hasn't exactly set 2016 alight with the stand out win over Nadal being followed by a couple of disappointing losses.
His run to the Third Round has been helped by the Martin Klizan retirement in the Second Round and I think Verdasco will have to produce some exceptional tennis as he did Down Under to beat Nadal again. It might need three sets to separate them, but Nadal is the more likely to win a set with a double break and I think that is ultimately the reason he is able to come through and cover in a Third Round win.
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Jack Sock: This looks a fascinating match on paper between two players that will feel they can make significant Ranking improvements this season. For Jack Sock the injury earlier in the season has prevented him from kicking on as much as he might have wished after reaching the Final in Auckland.
Sock had lost three straight matches before beating Michael Berrer in the Second Round here, but he will have to be a lot better to beat Dominic Thiem who has won two titles in 2016. I really think Thiem is on the right path to break into the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time, especially when you think his best tennis is usually reserved for the clay courts which is going to dominate the next couple of months after March.
That is not to say Thiem can't perform very well on the hard courts too having won the ATP 500 event in Acapulco and I think he has the all around game to give Sock plenty to think about. He will have a real edge when it comes to the backhand battles and Sock will have to serve well to keep Thiem at bay and I do like the Austrian to progress.
In the Miami Masters of 2015, Thiem took advantage of the Sock second serve to beat him in straight sets as the underdog. This time around he goes into the match as the favourite and I think he deserves that tag and Thiem will be able to have enough success against the Sock backhand to come through in straight sets.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: Injury and illness has really given Petra Kvitova problems in 2016 as she tries to find her best form, but I do think the two wins in Indian Wells might have restored some confidence. Kvitova had to battle deep into a third set on both occasions and those are the kind of wins that will help her get back on her feet in a difficult season, but I do think she is perhaps being under-rated in this match.
I have steered away from backing Kvitova until I felt she was back to her best, but I do like the way she has won her two matches this week despite being under immense pressure. That will help her mentally, but I also thought she would be asked to cover a couple more games in this one against the Qualifier Nicole Gibbs.
It has been two long weeks for Gibbs who reached the Quarter Finals in Monterrey ten days ago when coming through the Qualifiers there. She has already won five matches this week with a couple of Qualifying wins behind her, while Gibbs has impressive wins over Madison Keys and Yaroslava Shvedova in the last two Rounds.
The American will receive plenty of support here and this is all about whether she can weather the power that Kvitova will bring at times. It has proven to be a problem for Gibbs in her last two matches against the Czech player and I think Kvitova might be battle hardened for a strong week here now.
Expect some twists and turns, but ultimately I expect Kvitova to win this one 63, 57, 64.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Simona Halep has had some really difficult losses in 2016 and she took time out to go and visit Steffi Graf in Las Vegas to see if she can get some help to recover mentally. It has seemingly worked as Halep has spoken positively about it off the court, and then beaten Vania King and Ekaterina Makarova very comfortably on the court here at Indian Wells.
Those wins will give Halep a boost in confidence as she looks to put up some big Ranking points following a Semi Final run and then winning the title at this event. It is clearly a tournament Halep likes and I do think she will be too strong for Barbora Strycova in this Fourth Round match.
Strycova has had some decent wins already this week and continues to be one of those players on the Tour that can beat the very best players if they are off their game. On the other hand, she struggles to match those players if they are on form and that has shown up with a couple of heavy losses to the likes of Victoria Azarenka and Sara Errani.
There will be some long rallies in this one as both players have an ability to play very strong defence, but ultimately I think Halep will get the better of things. It should lead to a 64, 64 win and a place back in the Quarter Finals at Indian Wells.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Johanna Konta: I am a big fan of Johanna Konta but I think this might be too difficult a test for her in the Fourth Round as she faces Karolina Pliskova who has won all three previous matches between the two.
Both players have produced good wins to reach the Fourth Round and both Pliskova and Konta will look to get things going behind a strong first serve. The player who can win the higher percentage of points behind the first serve will be in a strong position to progress and I think both Pliskova and Konta will have their chances to get on the front foot.
It could be a streaky kind of match with both players having their moments and I would be surprised if we didn't get to see a decider between them. The last two matches have both gone into a third set and I think we will see both players have their success in this one too.
What will make the difference? I do think Pliskova, when on form as she has shown this week, is the more capable player of finding consistency off the ground and behind the serve to have the edge. While Konta's serve is under-rated, it isn't as dominant a shot as the one Pliskova possesses and ultimately that can prove to be the difference maker in a close match.
I am backing Pliskova to cover the games in a match I believed she would be a far stronger favourite than she is and I think she can win this one in three tough sets but will cover too.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 20-10, + 16.90 Units (60 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)
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Tuesday, 15 March 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (March 15-17)
There is an international break looming for the domestic Leagues in European football but this is another big week as we set the Quarter Finals in both the Champions League and Europa League. The draw for the last eight will be made on Friday and then there is another round of Premier League fixtures and other domestic football this weekend before a two week break.
What makes this international break even more difficult to endure is the fact that we have very little competitive football. Don't get me wrong, the Qualifiers are hardly a pulse racing set of fixtures, but it is certainly better than the international friendlies we will have to suffer through over the Easter break.
I won't worry about that for now, because there are still plenty of big matches that are scheduled for the next few days beginning with those European Second Legs that have been set for this week.
Atletico Madrid v PSV Eindhoven Pick: When Atletico Madrid played in the Netherlands in the First Leg, I backed them to not just beat PSV Eindhoven, but keep a clean sheet in the process. Half of that was correct as Atletico Madrid did keep the clean sheet, but they were unable to score the decisive goal although will be big favourites to progress to the Quarter Finals of the Champions League.
I really am not disrespecting PSV Eindhoven, but they came out of a weak Group and are playing in a domestic League that doesn't really provide the competition that the Champions League does. Manchester United's poor performances in the Group Stage helped PSV Eindhoven progress, but they can't expect Atletico Madrid to be as generous from this position.
It also has to be remembered that PSV Eindhoven failed to win any of their 3 away games in the Group Stage and were beaten at CSKA Moscow and Wolfsburg. Neither team would be favoured to beat Atletico Madrid who have been in tremendous form in recent weeks as the goals have been produced to win games while the defensive strength continues to form the basis of their success.
I can't really see how PSV Eindhoven are going to keep Atletico Madrid from scoring for a second time in this Last 16 tie and I do think the Spanish side will ensure three clubs from the Primera Division are in the Quarter Finals. The goals in recent games suggests Atletico Madrid will be able to beat PSV Eindhoven by a couple of goals, but I am sticking with an old favourite when it comes to Atletico Madrid matches.
Simply put I expect Atletico Madrid to win this time with another clean sheet in their pocket and that looks a big price at just under odds against when you think PSV Eindhoven failed to score in 2 of 3 away games in the Group. PSV Eindhoven also failed to score in European games at Dinamo Moscow and Zenit St Petersburg last season and Atletico Madrid have had 9 clean sheets in their last 10 Champions League home games.
The price is simply too big in my opinion, especially as Diego Simeone prides himself on defensive solidarity, and I like Atletico Madrid to win to nil.
Manchester City v Dynamo Kiev Pick: There are still times when Manchester City put all the right pieces together on the field and look like the team that should be leading the Premier League by some margin. On the other hand there are days when they look short of ideas in the final third and one of those was at Carrow Road on Saturday.
The Premier League is not quite gone at this point, but Manchester City will likely have to win every game they have remaining to have a chance and that is a tall order for an inconsistent team. It might mean the focus in the Champions League is that much better, although winning that certainly doesn't look a realistic goal for them.
I don't think anyone at Manchester City will think that, but that is my own opinion and likely to be shared by anyone not wearing sky blue tinted spectacles.
Manuel Pellegrini should help them break one mental barrier though and that is reaching the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time. It has been a big struggle for Manchester City thanks to some terrible draws, but the 1-3 win at Dynamo Kiev in the First Leg means it will take something special for Manchester City to blow their chance now.
Dynamo Kiev can't be underestimated having given Chelsea some difficulties, but they have lost 11 of 13 away games in England and are yet to win in this country. With the pressure to get forward and score at least three goals, it might work into Manchester City's hands as they counter their visitors and use the space to their advantage.
I expect Manchester City playing at home will be able to use those spaces effectively and I can see them picking off Dynamo Kiev late on to put a gloss on the Second Leg. The Manchester derby is played on Sunday so Manuel Pellegrini can play as strong a team as he likes and I expect there will be some frustration from the Premier League result on Saturday that needs to be taken out of their system.
I do think there will be some awkward moments, but a goal should settle Manchester City down and they can get another one as the game wears on to cover the Asian Handicap.
Barcelona v Arsenal Pick: People have been talking about Arsenal having a glimmer of hope in this Second Leg of the Last 16 Champions League tie at the Nou Camp, but I personally can't see that at all. There isn't a team in Europe I would back to overturn a 0-2 home defeat to Barcelona at the Nou Camp and Arsenal certainly would be some way down the totem pole if I was to even line up those teams in terms of percentage chances.
An Arsenal team devoid of confidence or form has even less of a chance in my opinion and the layers seemed to have caught on to that fact by effectively asking Barcelona to win by three clear goals on the handicaps.
Now Barcelona are more than capable of doing that against a team missing Petr Cech and Laurent Koscielny at the heart of the defence, especially as Arsenal don't have a lot of room for rotation. Barcelona will play their possession game and look to hit Arsenal when The Gunners do push forward and I think it will likely be a comfortable day in the office for the current European Champions.
Defensively Arsenal have struggled too much to really believe they can keep Barcelona at bay and their fans have to worry there might be a repeat of the heavy 5-1 loss suffered at Bayern Munich in the Group Stage. If Barcelona are more clinical in the final third, they are capable of tearing apart this Arsenal team and they do have every chance of winning by a wide margin.
However I prefer simply backing Barcelona to score at least three times on the night at a reasonable price. They managed that in both previous home games against Arsenal in the Second Leg of a Last 16 tie and I expect Barcelona will have the chances to do that. The dominant First Leg scoreline worries me a touch as perhaps the focus in the home team is not as strong if they go 1-0 up in this one, but I do think the Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi trio do like putting their foot down when an opponent is reeling.
It isn't the biggest price in the world, but it is a steady one for Barcelona to hit at least three times and I will back that to happen.
Bayern Munich v Juventus Pick: For the first hour of the First Leg, Bayern Munich looked to be in cruise control as they took a 0-2 lead at Juventus and looked to have one foot in the Quarter Finals. The final half an hour was dictated by Juventus for the most part and they came away with a 2-2 draw which was a good result for the day, but perhaps not one that will help them beat Bayern Munich into the Quarter Finals.
Some may feel the momentum is with Juventus having come from 0-2 down to earn the draw, but I think it had a lot to do with Bayern Munich perhaps feeling the job was done. That is not going to be the case in the Second Leg and it has to be remembered that Juventus have to find a way to score at least once to give themselves any chance.
That means at some point Juventus will have to take a risk against a team that has won 9 in a row at home in the Champions League and I am not sure that will work out too well for them. Last season could be the template for how this game will go as Bayern Munich failed to win at Shakhtar Donetsk (0-0) and Porto (3-1) in First Legs of the Knock Out Rounds of the Champions League, but then beat both 7-0 and 6-1 respectively.
Now I don't for a second believe that Bayern Munich will thump Juventus by those margins, but the latter did lose 3-0 at Inter Milan recently so could be under pressure from a much better team in Bayern Munich. Juventus will also have to get forward if they fall behind which can leave gaps for a pacy team to exploit and I do think Bayern Munich showed they are the far superior team if playing to their potential.
It won't be by as big a margin as Bayern Munich crushed Shakhtar Donetsk and Porto after poor away results by their standards, but I do think they are too much for Juventus on the day. I think the home team win this one by a couple of goals to earn comfortable passage to the Quarter Finals.
Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal Pick: The First Leg has put Villarreal firmly in command of this Last 16 tie, but having one foot in the Quarter Finals is not going to be enough for them. If there is any complacency, Bayer Leverkusen have shown they have the goals in the squad that can overturn this 2-0 deficit which should usually be very difficult for teams to overcome.
Bayer Leverkusen are a team built to go forward and score goals and they have a much clearer picture of this Second Leg than Villarreal. The German side know they have to attack and score goals and they might even need as many as four goals if they concede, but they have reached that mark in 2 of their 5 home games in Europe this season while also hitting three against Sporting Lisbon here in the last Round.
While Villarreal might be thought to defend what they have, it is in the nature of a Spanish side to want to get forward and score goals. They showed that ability in the last Round against Napoli when scoring the equaliser in Naples while defending a 1-0 home win from the First Leg.
It has to be remembered that Villarreal have scored in every away European game they have played since the beginning of the 2014/15 season, a run of 10 straight games. With Bayer Leverkusen getting on the front foot too and having an ability to score and concede plenty of goals, I can see this Second Leg producing at least one more goal than the First Leg and will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Lazio v Sparta Prague Pick: In the old days it might have been expected that an Italian side playing at home would look to play out a goalless draw to move through to the next Round of a European competition on away goals. That is not so much the case these days and Lazio won't sit back in this one as they didn't when beating Galatasaray in the Last 32 following a 1-1 away result.
They will need to be careful against a Sparta Prague team that have had a habit of going away from home and scoring not just one, but two goals at times. If they can do that in the Italian capital, you would have to think Sparta Prague would be the favourites to win the tie perhaps on away goals at the least.
It has all the makings of another high-scoring Second Leg with both teams better going forward than they in defensive areas. Any goal will change the nature of the game and force one of the teams to perhaps push forward and I really don't agree with the layers that seeing at least three goals shared out by these teams should be an odds against shot.
All 4 of Lazio's home games in the Europa League have seen at least three goals shared out and 4 of 5 Sparta Prague away games in this competition have done the same. I think both teams will score in this one and I can see both having their chances to win the game in regulation time, so I will back at least three goals to be shared out on Thursday.
Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: The First Leg has made Liverpool very strong favourites to progress to the Quarter Finals of the Europa League at the expense of their greatest rivals Manchester United. If the game takes a similar path as the First Leg, Liverpool won't just qualify but they will do so with a win at Old Trafford.
That has been a rare occurrence for them in recent seasons but Liverpool created so many chances in the First Leg that they will feel they can score a goal that will force Manchester United to score at least four times to have a chance. Louis Van Gaal has been very forceful in the press conferences in telling those listening that he will set up his Manchester United team to score goals, but the players have yet to prove they are capable of doing that on the pitch.
Finding the right balance between attack and defence has been an issue for Van Gaal and Manchester United and it is difficult to see how they can keep Liverpool from scoring. The ability to take a gamble hasn't really been a part of the Van Gaal make up and the biggest fear for Manchester United fans has to be going out without really testing this Liverpool team.
The away team are healthier and have had a week to prepare for this game, but the fans at Old Trafford should make this a very good atmosphere in which Manchester United can thrive. Manchester United have scored three times in wins over Liverpool under Van Gaal at Old Trafford, but Jurgen Klopp has his team playing with more confidence than Brendan Rodgers managed in those games.
I have to think that even Van Gaal recognises the importance of making a fast start in this Second Leg and I think Manchester United will create some chances. However, I also wouldn't be surprised if Liverpool scored in this one and I will back there being at least three goals scored this week after just missing out that number last week thanks to some good goalkeeping and poor finishing from both clubs.
Sevilla v Basel Pick: There really isn't a lot I am going to say about this tie as Sevilla look to have a clear advantage to beat Basel and move through to another Europa League Quarter Final. You can't ever draw a line through Basel who have a lot of experience in European competition and have a tendency to make life difficult for any team when they are on peak form, but it is a big ask at Sevilla.
The numbers are all pointing to Sevilla to win having won 12 of their last 13 home games in European competition including 10 in a row in the Europa League. Sevilla crushed Molde 3-0 here in the last Round and they have also won 16 straight games here in all competitions which includes some of the better teams in Spain.
I do think Basel will cause some problems but I am expecting Sevilla to have the lead in this one going into the final 15 minutes.
At that point they should be able to employ counter attacking tactics and pick Basel off if they commit one too many men to get back into this the tie and I do believe Sevilla win this one by a couple of goals on the night. The 'hard work' has been done in Switzerland, but the experience Sevilla have means they won't be complacent in this Second Leg and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund Pick: The First Leg has effectively put this tie to bed and it wouldn't be a big surprise if Mauricio Pochettino waved the white flag and rested players for the Premier League this weekend. Many of these players will be off for international duty at the end of the weekend, but Pochettino has been looking to keep them as fresh as possible.
He has already ruled out Mousa Dembele and Christian Eriksen and I wouldn't be surprised if other big names are rested in this Second Leg. While the manager won't want to lose at home, Tottenham Hotspur have bigger ambitions than the Europa League and his team last week suggested that was the case.
On the other hand it is important for Borussia Dortmund and I think they will play a strong team again to ensure complacency doesn't set in. They will know an away goal would likely be enough and I can see both teams making this an open game with the way they will look to approach the Second Leg.
Anything other than Borussia Dortmund's name going into the Quarter Final draw on Friday would be a huge upset, but this could be yet another Second Leg that has a fair few goals attached to it. I did fancy backing Dortmund to win the Second Leg as they did against Porto, but goals might be more likely for me and I will back that to happen.
MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barcelona Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Lazio-Sparta Prague Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Season 2015/16: 107-151-2, - 17.55 Units (572 Units Staked, - 3.07% Yield)
What makes this international break even more difficult to endure is the fact that we have very little competitive football. Don't get me wrong, the Qualifiers are hardly a pulse racing set of fixtures, but it is certainly better than the international friendlies we will have to suffer through over the Easter break.
I won't worry about that for now, because there are still plenty of big matches that are scheduled for the next few days beginning with those European Second Legs that have been set for this week.
Atletico Madrid v PSV Eindhoven Pick: When Atletico Madrid played in the Netherlands in the First Leg, I backed them to not just beat PSV Eindhoven, but keep a clean sheet in the process. Half of that was correct as Atletico Madrid did keep the clean sheet, but they were unable to score the decisive goal although will be big favourites to progress to the Quarter Finals of the Champions League.
I really am not disrespecting PSV Eindhoven, but they came out of a weak Group and are playing in a domestic League that doesn't really provide the competition that the Champions League does. Manchester United's poor performances in the Group Stage helped PSV Eindhoven progress, but they can't expect Atletico Madrid to be as generous from this position.
It also has to be remembered that PSV Eindhoven failed to win any of their 3 away games in the Group Stage and were beaten at CSKA Moscow and Wolfsburg. Neither team would be favoured to beat Atletico Madrid who have been in tremendous form in recent weeks as the goals have been produced to win games while the defensive strength continues to form the basis of their success.
I can't really see how PSV Eindhoven are going to keep Atletico Madrid from scoring for a second time in this Last 16 tie and I do think the Spanish side will ensure three clubs from the Primera Division are in the Quarter Finals. The goals in recent games suggests Atletico Madrid will be able to beat PSV Eindhoven by a couple of goals, but I am sticking with an old favourite when it comes to Atletico Madrid matches.
Simply put I expect Atletico Madrid to win this time with another clean sheet in their pocket and that looks a big price at just under odds against when you think PSV Eindhoven failed to score in 2 of 3 away games in the Group. PSV Eindhoven also failed to score in European games at Dinamo Moscow and Zenit St Petersburg last season and Atletico Madrid have had 9 clean sheets in their last 10 Champions League home games.
The price is simply too big in my opinion, especially as Diego Simeone prides himself on defensive solidarity, and I like Atletico Madrid to win to nil.
Manchester City v Dynamo Kiev Pick: There are still times when Manchester City put all the right pieces together on the field and look like the team that should be leading the Premier League by some margin. On the other hand there are days when they look short of ideas in the final third and one of those was at Carrow Road on Saturday.
The Premier League is not quite gone at this point, but Manchester City will likely have to win every game they have remaining to have a chance and that is a tall order for an inconsistent team. It might mean the focus in the Champions League is that much better, although winning that certainly doesn't look a realistic goal for them.
I don't think anyone at Manchester City will think that, but that is my own opinion and likely to be shared by anyone not wearing sky blue tinted spectacles.
Manuel Pellegrini should help them break one mental barrier though and that is reaching the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time. It has been a big struggle for Manchester City thanks to some terrible draws, but the 1-3 win at Dynamo Kiev in the First Leg means it will take something special for Manchester City to blow their chance now.
Dynamo Kiev can't be underestimated having given Chelsea some difficulties, but they have lost 11 of 13 away games in England and are yet to win in this country. With the pressure to get forward and score at least three goals, it might work into Manchester City's hands as they counter their visitors and use the space to their advantage.
I expect Manchester City playing at home will be able to use those spaces effectively and I can see them picking off Dynamo Kiev late on to put a gloss on the Second Leg. The Manchester derby is played on Sunday so Manuel Pellegrini can play as strong a team as he likes and I expect there will be some frustration from the Premier League result on Saturday that needs to be taken out of their system.
I do think there will be some awkward moments, but a goal should settle Manchester City down and they can get another one as the game wears on to cover the Asian Handicap.
Barcelona v Arsenal Pick: People have been talking about Arsenal having a glimmer of hope in this Second Leg of the Last 16 Champions League tie at the Nou Camp, but I personally can't see that at all. There isn't a team in Europe I would back to overturn a 0-2 home defeat to Barcelona at the Nou Camp and Arsenal certainly would be some way down the totem pole if I was to even line up those teams in terms of percentage chances.
An Arsenal team devoid of confidence or form has even less of a chance in my opinion and the layers seemed to have caught on to that fact by effectively asking Barcelona to win by three clear goals on the handicaps.
Now Barcelona are more than capable of doing that against a team missing Petr Cech and Laurent Koscielny at the heart of the defence, especially as Arsenal don't have a lot of room for rotation. Barcelona will play their possession game and look to hit Arsenal when The Gunners do push forward and I think it will likely be a comfortable day in the office for the current European Champions.
Defensively Arsenal have struggled too much to really believe they can keep Barcelona at bay and their fans have to worry there might be a repeat of the heavy 5-1 loss suffered at Bayern Munich in the Group Stage. If Barcelona are more clinical in the final third, they are capable of tearing apart this Arsenal team and they do have every chance of winning by a wide margin.
However I prefer simply backing Barcelona to score at least three times on the night at a reasonable price. They managed that in both previous home games against Arsenal in the Second Leg of a Last 16 tie and I expect Barcelona will have the chances to do that. The dominant First Leg scoreline worries me a touch as perhaps the focus in the home team is not as strong if they go 1-0 up in this one, but I do think the Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi trio do like putting their foot down when an opponent is reeling.
It isn't the biggest price in the world, but it is a steady one for Barcelona to hit at least three times and I will back that to happen.
Bayern Munich v Juventus Pick: For the first hour of the First Leg, Bayern Munich looked to be in cruise control as they took a 0-2 lead at Juventus and looked to have one foot in the Quarter Finals. The final half an hour was dictated by Juventus for the most part and they came away with a 2-2 draw which was a good result for the day, but perhaps not one that will help them beat Bayern Munich into the Quarter Finals.
Some may feel the momentum is with Juventus having come from 0-2 down to earn the draw, but I think it had a lot to do with Bayern Munich perhaps feeling the job was done. That is not going to be the case in the Second Leg and it has to be remembered that Juventus have to find a way to score at least once to give themselves any chance.
That means at some point Juventus will have to take a risk against a team that has won 9 in a row at home in the Champions League and I am not sure that will work out too well for them. Last season could be the template for how this game will go as Bayern Munich failed to win at Shakhtar Donetsk (0-0) and Porto (3-1) in First Legs of the Knock Out Rounds of the Champions League, but then beat both 7-0 and 6-1 respectively.
Now I don't for a second believe that Bayern Munich will thump Juventus by those margins, but the latter did lose 3-0 at Inter Milan recently so could be under pressure from a much better team in Bayern Munich. Juventus will also have to get forward if they fall behind which can leave gaps for a pacy team to exploit and I do think Bayern Munich showed they are the far superior team if playing to their potential.
It won't be by as big a margin as Bayern Munich crushed Shakhtar Donetsk and Porto after poor away results by their standards, but I do think they are too much for Juventus on the day. I think the home team win this one by a couple of goals to earn comfortable passage to the Quarter Finals.
Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal Pick: The First Leg has put Villarreal firmly in command of this Last 16 tie, but having one foot in the Quarter Finals is not going to be enough for them. If there is any complacency, Bayer Leverkusen have shown they have the goals in the squad that can overturn this 2-0 deficit which should usually be very difficult for teams to overcome.
Bayer Leverkusen are a team built to go forward and score goals and they have a much clearer picture of this Second Leg than Villarreal. The German side know they have to attack and score goals and they might even need as many as four goals if they concede, but they have reached that mark in 2 of their 5 home games in Europe this season while also hitting three against Sporting Lisbon here in the last Round.
While Villarreal might be thought to defend what they have, it is in the nature of a Spanish side to want to get forward and score goals. They showed that ability in the last Round against Napoli when scoring the equaliser in Naples while defending a 1-0 home win from the First Leg.
It has to be remembered that Villarreal have scored in every away European game they have played since the beginning of the 2014/15 season, a run of 10 straight games. With Bayer Leverkusen getting on the front foot too and having an ability to score and concede plenty of goals, I can see this Second Leg producing at least one more goal than the First Leg and will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Lazio v Sparta Prague Pick: In the old days it might have been expected that an Italian side playing at home would look to play out a goalless draw to move through to the next Round of a European competition on away goals. That is not so much the case these days and Lazio won't sit back in this one as they didn't when beating Galatasaray in the Last 32 following a 1-1 away result.
They will need to be careful against a Sparta Prague team that have had a habit of going away from home and scoring not just one, but two goals at times. If they can do that in the Italian capital, you would have to think Sparta Prague would be the favourites to win the tie perhaps on away goals at the least.
It has all the makings of another high-scoring Second Leg with both teams better going forward than they in defensive areas. Any goal will change the nature of the game and force one of the teams to perhaps push forward and I really don't agree with the layers that seeing at least three goals shared out by these teams should be an odds against shot.
All 4 of Lazio's home games in the Europa League have seen at least three goals shared out and 4 of 5 Sparta Prague away games in this competition have done the same. I think both teams will score in this one and I can see both having their chances to win the game in regulation time, so I will back at least three goals to be shared out on Thursday.
Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: The First Leg has made Liverpool very strong favourites to progress to the Quarter Finals of the Europa League at the expense of their greatest rivals Manchester United. If the game takes a similar path as the First Leg, Liverpool won't just qualify but they will do so with a win at Old Trafford.
That has been a rare occurrence for them in recent seasons but Liverpool created so many chances in the First Leg that they will feel they can score a goal that will force Manchester United to score at least four times to have a chance. Louis Van Gaal has been very forceful in the press conferences in telling those listening that he will set up his Manchester United team to score goals, but the players have yet to prove they are capable of doing that on the pitch.
Finding the right balance between attack and defence has been an issue for Van Gaal and Manchester United and it is difficult to see how they can keep Liverpool from scoring. The ability to take a gamble hasn't really been a part of the Van Gaal make up and the biggest fear for Manchester United fans has to be going out without really testing this Liverpool team.
The away team are healthier and have had a week to prepare for this game, but the fans at Old Trafford should make this a very good atmosphere in which Manchester United can thrive. Manchester United have scored three times in wins over Liverpool under Van Gaal at Old Trafford, but Jurgen Klopp has his team playing with more confidence than Brendan Rodgers managed in those games.
I have to think that even Van Gaal recognises the importance of making a fast start in this Second Leg and I think Manchester United will create some chances. However, I also wouldn't be surprised if Liverpool scored in this one and I will back there being at least three goals scored this week after just missing out that number last week thanks to some good goalkeeping and poor finishing from both clubs.
Sevilla v Basel Pick: There really isn't a lot I am going to say about this tie as Sevilla look to have a clear advantage to beat Basel and move through to another Europa League Quarter Final. You can't ever draw a line through Basel who have a lot of experience in European competition and have a tendency to make life difficult for any team when they are on peak form, but it is a big ask at Sevilla.
The numbers are all pointing to Sevilla to win having won 12 of their last 13 home games in European competition including 10 in a row in the Europa League. Sevilla crushed Molde 3-0 here in the last Round and they have also won 16 straight games here in all competitions which includes some of the better teams in Spain.
I do think Basel will cause some problems but I am expecting Sevilla to have the lead in this one going into the final 15 minutes.
At that point they should be able to employ counter attacking tactics and pick Basel off if they commit one too many men to get back into this the tie and I do believe Sevilla win this one by a couple of goals on the night. The 'hard work' has been done in Switzerland, but the experience Sevilla have means they won't be complacent in this Second Leg and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund Pick: The First Leg has effectively put this tie to bed and it wouldn't be a big surprise if Mauricio Pochettino waved the white flag and rested players for the Premier League this weekend. Many of these players will be off for international duty at the end of the weekend, but Pochettino has been looking to keep them as fresh as possible.
He has already ruled out Mousa Dembele and Christian Eriksen and I wouldn't be surprised if other big names are rested in this Second Leg. While the manager won't want to lose at home, Tottenham Hotspur have bigger ambitions than the Europa League and his team last week suggested that was the case.
On the other hand it is important for Borussia Dortmund and I think they will play a strong team again to ensure complacency doesn't set in. They will know an away goal would likely be enough and I can see both teams making this an open game with the way they will look to approach the Second Leg.
Anything other than Borussia Dortmund's name going into the Quarter Final draw on Friday would be a huge upset, but this could be yet another Second Leg that has a fair few goals attached to it. I did fancy backing Dortmund to win the Second Leg as they did against Porto, but goals might be more likely for me and I will back that to happen.
MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barcelona Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Lazio-Sparta Prague Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
March Update: 18-12-2, + 11.64 Units (62 Units Staked, + 18.77% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)
February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)
January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)
December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 107-151-2, - 17.55 Units (572 Units Staked, - 3.07% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Monday, 14 March 2016
NBA Picks March 2016 (March 14-20)
February was a miserable month for the picks being made, but the beginning of March has been very positive. I am looking to keep the picks trending in a positive direction so as to erase the poor record of February and go into April back where the season should be.
The regular season is beginning to wind down now and the Play Offs are beginning to take shape. The coming two weeks will start to ensure teams are beginning to separate from others and perhaps even start locking down spots in the Conferences.
Some things are already clear- the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors will battle each other for the Number 1 Seed in Western Conference in regular season games against one another. The race for the Number 1 Seed in the East also looks like one that will come down to the wire between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers.
We might already be down to ten realistic contenders for the eight places in the Eastern Conference and Washington have to arrest their slide if they are also not be pulled out of contention.
The Western Conference is probably already down to the nine teams fighting for the eight spots available in the post-season. It isn't clear which of the teams will make those spots outside of the top five teams but it does look like the scrap for those bottom Seedings in the Conferences will go down to the wire.
Chemistry is all important at this stage of the season with the Play Offs just around the corner and that has seen March being taken very seriously by teams who have less than a quarter of their regular season to be played.
Monday 14th March
The Atlanta Hawks blew out the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night to ensure the week was a very positive one and put the month of March in a strong spot for the picks. I am hoping to keep the trend going this week and there are plenty of games scheduled for the week that can hopefully be researched well enough for another strong week of picks.
Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Charlotte Hornets have been a team that has been very good to me in the last couple of weeks and I have to keep riding them on their current hot streak. The Hornets have not just moved into a healthy position in the Eastern Conference Play Off spots, but are now only 1.5 games behind Number 3 Seed the Boston Celtics after winning seven in a row.
They have won all five games during their current home stand and three of those wins have come against teams in the Play Off spots. Charlotte have been scoring plenty of points as they have been given help from a number of players, but the key remains Kemba Walker.
Now they are favoured to beat the Dallas Mavericks who are slipping in the Western Conference Play Off picture and they are now just 2 games clear of the Utah Jazz. While Charlotte have been winning, Dallas have lost five straight games and failed to cover the spread in each of those losses.
Defensively they have struggled for stops and Charlotte did beat them by fourteen points on the road earlier this season. While Dallas do have an impressive 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine in Charlotte, the Hornets are playing too well at this moment and I expect them to cover in another home win on Monday.
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards Pick: This is a really big game for both the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards when it comes to deciding Eastern Conference Play Off places. It is arguably bigger for the Wizards who are currently Number 10 in the Conference and 3.5 games behind the Pistons who are the Number 8 Seed.
Washington have been sloppy in their five game losing run- they've lost one game by a point, another in Overtime and another when blowing an eight point lead going into the final Quarter. The last of those was at Denver on Saturday against a team that played their reserves through the Fourth Quarter but still beat down on Washington who couldn't buy a bucket.
The Wizards have a losing record at home so even hosting this game might not change their trend, although I think the Pistons might be a little over-rated at this moment. Detroit have won three of four games, but they were fortunate to come back against the Philadelphia 76ers with another poor Defensive performance and that continues to be a concern for Stan Van Gundy.
Detroit do have a solid 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight visits to the nation's capital, but the Wizards have won four of the last five at home against them including three in a row. I think Washington find the scoring to win this one too and I will back them to cover the points in a victory.
Tuesday 15th March
The Charlotte Hornets have been good to me over the last couple of weeks so I am not going to criticise them for losing one game, especially as they are still in a good place.
Washington at least got the job done on Monday with a total and utter humiliation of the Detroit Pistons at home to reignite their Play Off push.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The two worst teams in the Eastern Conference meet on Tuesday and I don't want anything to do with the spread. Instead I am looking at the total points line and feeling that it might be too high for these teams who have Defensive issues, but also struggle for Offensive consistency.
Out of the two teams, Philadelphia are almost in full tank mode to try and get into position for yet another high pick in the NBA Draft. It doesn't make sense for Brooklyn to do that considering they are handing their First Round pick over to the Boston Celtics and that might be highlighted by the respective recent performances.
Philadelphia might be short-handed for this one with a number of injuries in the rotation, while Brooklyn have been inconsistent at both ends of the court. The under total play has come out for both of these teams more often than not when it comes to playing as the home favourite/road underdog respectively, while none of the three games this season have surpassed 201 total points.
It could easily be a game where neither team plays much Defense, but I think this number looks too high to me especially when you think the Under is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams.
Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers Pick: There is considerable unrest at the Sacramento Kings and yet again this looks to be a summer when DeMarcus Cousins' future at the franchise will be questioned. No one should have any doubt that Cousins is one of the top players in the NBA, but the Kings have to find him a Coach that he can get on with after another falling out with George Karl.
That discord means the Kings are once again looking set to miss the Play Offs, but they can get the better of the LA Lakers for a seventh time in a row. The Kings have won all three previous games against the Lakers this season and have won two in a row at the Staples Center.
The concern has to be the really poor form that Sacramento have been showing especially as they are facing the Lakers who are 3-4 in their last seven games which is relatively good form. The Kings are also not a good road favourite to back, but their one success this season in this spot has come against the LA Lakers.
However Sacramento have a 5-1-1 record against the spread in their last seven against the LA Lakers and I think they can win this one having been in poor form against the better teams in the NBA. It won't come easy, but the Kings can battle through for the cover on the road for the second time against the LA Lakers this season and continues their strong run against them.
Wednesday 16th March
Another mixed set of results for the picks on Tuesday, but the positive side of things is I haven't had a losing day to damage the weekly totals too far.
Hoping for a better Wednesday with a couple of winners at least to get the month moving in the positive direction for a third week in a row.
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pick: The bottom places of the Eastern Conference Play Offs are going to be fought over through to the end of the regular season. For the Washington Wizards to be involved in those battles, they have to win games like this one against the Chicago Bulls to keep in touch with the Number 8 Seed.
At the moment it is the Bulls who hold that position after Washington thumped the Detroit Pistons earlier in the week, a Pistons team that held the Number 8 Seed at that time. There are 2.5 games between these teams which highlights the importance for Washington to win the game and stay with the Bulls.
Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago which is a huge boost for the squad, but Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose look set to miss this one. The Bulls had lost six of eight before the stunning win at the Toronto Raptors, but Chicago are going to have to dig deep to beat a Washington team that are 13-6 against the spread in the last nineteen games between these teams.
Chicago have also been a poor road underdog to back when given 6 points or fewer as they are just 4-12 against the spread in that spot this season. There is no confusing Washington with a strong home favourite, but they have been better when favoured by 6 points or fewer and have also done well when revenging a loss as a favourite. I think Washington will get it done in this one and will back them to cover the points.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets Pick: I think the Houston Rockets have been a big disappointment this season, but they could be a dangerous lower Seed in the Western Conference. At the moment they are holding off the Utah Jazz for the Number 8 Seed in the West but there are only 2 games between them meaning every game is very important for Houston.
There isn't much love lost between them and the LA Clippers who visit off the back of yet another big defeat to one of the top teams in the NBA. After being blown out at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Clippers spent Tuesday being chased out by the San Antonio Spurs as they were blown apart in the Fourth Quarter.
It is looking increasingly likely that the Clippers will have to make do with the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference and they have had a hard time as the road underdog of 3 points or less. Playing on a back to back hasn't suited them either and I think this game means a lot more to Houston and I expect the Rockets to at least play with that motivation behind them.
Houston have won four of their last five games to build some momentum behind them and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games against the LA Clippers. I just think the home team are in a better spot in this one and I will back the Rockets to cover the points.
Thursday 17th March
It was yet another mixed set of results for the picks this week on Wednesday, but I will go back for a couple more picks from the Thursday games.
I will add those to the picks section today as I haven't had the time with March Madness to put down my reasons today.
Friday 18th March
I can only say it is getting a little frustrating now... How did Washington blow their huge lead over the awful Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday?
That meant the picks go 1-1 for the fourth straight day and that is not really good enough for me. Hopefully I can get a little more consistency out of the last three days and keep this month trending in a positive direction.
MY PICKS: 14/03 Charlotte Hornets - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/03 Washington Wizards - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/03 Brooklyn Nets-Philadelphia 76ers Under 210 Total Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
15/03 Sacramento Kings - 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/03 Washington Wizards - 5 Points @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/03 Houston Rockets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/03 Toronto Raptors + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/03 Washington Wizards - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
December Final: 27-21-3, + 3.67 Units
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 115-105-7, + 0.46 Units
The regular season is beginning to wind down now and the Play Offs are beginning to take shape. The coming two weeks will start to ensure teams are beginning to separate from others and perhaps even start locking down spots in the Conferences.
Some things are already clear- the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors will battle each other for the Number 1 Seed in Western Conference in regular season games against one another. The race for the Number 1 Seed in the East also looks like one that will come down to the wire between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers.
We might already be down to ten realistic contenders for the eight places in the Eastern Conference and Washington have to arrest their slide if they are also not be pulled out of contention.
The Western Conference is probably already down to the nine teams fighting for the eight spots available in the post-season. It isn't clear which of the teams will make those spots outside of the top five teams but it does look like the scrap for those bottom Seedings in the Conferences will go down to the wire.
Chemistry is all important at this stage of the season with the Play Offs just around the corner and that has seen March being taken very seriously by teams who have less than a quarter of their regular season to be played.
Monday 14th March
The Atlanta Hawks blew out the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night to ensure the week was a very positive one and put the month of March in a strong spot for the picks. I am hoping to keep the trend going this week and there are plenty of games scheduled for the week that can hopefully be researched well enough for another strong week of picks.
Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Charlotte Hornets have been a team that has been very good to me in the last couple of weeks and I have to keep riding them on their current hot streak. The Hornets have not just moved into a healthy position in the Eastern Conference Play Off spots, but are now only 1.5 games behind Number 3 Seed the Boston Celtics after winning seven in a row.
They have won all five games during their current home stand and three of those wins have come against teams in the Play Off spots. Charlotte have been scoring plenty of points as they have been given help from a number of players, but the key remains Kemba Walker.
Now they are favoured to beat the Dallas Mavericks who are slipping in the Western Conference Play Off picture and they are now just 2 games clear of the Utah Jazz. While Charlotte have been winning, Dallas have lost five straight games and failed to cover the spread in each of those losses.
Defensively they have struggled for stops and Charlotte did beat them by fourteen points on the road earlier this season. While Dallas do have an impressive 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine in Charlotte, the Hornets are playing too well at this moment and I expect them to cover in another home win on Monday.
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards Pick: This is a really big game for both the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards when it comes to deciding Eastern Conference Play Off places. It is arguably bigger for the Wizards who are currently Number 10 in the Conference and 3.5 games behind the Pistons who are the Number 8 Seed.
Washington have been sloppy in their five game losing run- they've lost one game by a point, another in Overtime and another when blowing an eight point lead going into the final Quarter. The last of those was at Denver on Saturday against a team that played their reserves through the Fourth Quarter but still beat down on Washington who couldn't buy a bucket.
The Wizards have a losing record at home so even hosting this game might not change their trend, although I think the Pistons might be a little over-rated at this moment. Detroit have won three of four games, but they were fortunate to come back against the Philadelphia 76ers with another poor Defensive performance and that continues to be a concern for Stan Van Gundy.
Detroit do have a solid 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight visits to the nation's capital, but the Wizards have won four of the last five at home against them including three in a row. I think Washington find the scoring to win this one too and I will back them to cover the points in a victory.
Tuesday 15th March
The Charlotte Hornets have been good to me over the last couple of weeks so I am not going to criticise them for losing one game, especially as they are still in a good place.
Washington at least got the job done on Monday with a total and utter humiliation of the Detroit Pistons at home to reignite their Play Off push.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The two worst teams in the Eastern Conference meet on Tuesday and I don't want anything to do with the spread. Instead I am looking at the total points line and feeling that it might be too high for these teams who have Defensive issues, but also struggle for Offensive consistency.
Out of the two teams, Philadelphia are almost in full tank mode to try and get into position for yet another high pick in the NBA Draft. It doesn't make sense for Brooklyn to do that considering they are handing their First Round pick over to the Boston Celtics and that might be highlighted by the respective recent performances.
Philadelphia might be short-handed for this one with a number of injuries in the rotation, while Brooklyn have been inconsistent at both ends of the court. The under total play has come out for both of these teams more often than not when it comes to playing as the home favourite/road underdog respectively, while none of the three games this season have surpassed 201 total points.
It could easily be a game where neither team plays much Defense, but I think this number looks too high to me especially when you think the Under is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams.
Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers Pick: There is considerable unrest at the Sacramento Kings and yet again this looks to be a summer when DeMarcus Cousins' future at the franchise will be questioned. No one should have any doubt that Cousins is one of the top players in the NBA, but the Kings have to find him a Coach that he can get on with after another falling out with George Karl.
That discord means the Kings are once again looking set to miss the Play Offs, but they can get the better of the LA Lakers for a seventh time in a row. The Kings have won all three previous games against the Lakers this season and have won two in a row at the Staples Center.
The concern has to be the really poor form that Sacramento have been showing especially as they are facing the Lakers who are 3-4 in their last seven games which is relatively good form. The Kings are also not a good road favourite to back, but their one success this season in this spot has come against the LA Lakers.
However Sacramento have a 5-1-1 record against the spread in their last seven against the LA Lakers and I think they can win this one having been in poor form against the better teams in the NBA. It won't come easy, but the Kings can battle through for the cover on the road for the second time against the LA Lakers this season and continues their strong run against them.
Wednesday 16th March
Another mixed set of results for the picks on Tuesday, but the positive side of things is I haven't had a losing day to damage the weekly totals too far.
Hoping for a better Wednesday with a couple of winners at least to get the month moving in the positive direction for a third week in a row.
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pick: The bottom places of the Eastern Conference Play Offs are going to be fought over through to the end of the regular season. For the Washington Wizards to be involved in those battles, they have to win games like this one against the Chicago Bulls to keep in touch with the Number 8 Seed.
At the moment it is the Bulls who hold that position after Washington thumped the Detroit Pistons earlier in the week, a Pistons team that held the Number 8 Seed at that time. There are 2.5 games between these teams which highlights the importance for Washington to win the game and stay with the Bulls.
Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago which is a huge boost for the squad, but Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose look set to miss this one. The Bulls had lost six of eight before the stunning win at the Toronto Raptors, but Chicago are going to have to dig deep to beat a Washington team that are 13-6 against the spread in the last nineteen games between these teams.
Chicago have also been a poor road underdog to back when given 6 points or fewer as they are just 4-12 against the spread in that spot this season. There is no confusing Washington with a strong home favourite, but they have been better when favoured by 6 points or fewer and have also done well when revenging a loss as a favourite. I think Washington will get it done in this one and will back them to cover the points.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets Pick: I think the Houston Rockets have been a big disappointment this season, but they could be a dangerous lower Seed in the Western Conference. At the moment they are holding off the Utah Jazz for the Number 8 Seed in the West but there are only 2 games between them meaning every game is very important for Houston.
There isn't much love lost between them and the LA Clippers who visit off the back of yet another big defeat to one of the top teams in the NBA. After being blown out at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Clippers spent Tuesday being chased out by the San Antonio Spurs as they were blown apart in the Fourth Quarter.
It is looking increasingly likely that the Clippers will have to make do with the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference and they have had a hard time as the road underdog of 3 points or less. Playing on a back to back hasn't suited them either and I think this game means a lot more to Houston and I expect the Rockets to at least play with that motivation behind them.
Houston have won four of their last five games to build some momentum behind them and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games against the LA Clippers. I just think the home team are in a better spot in this one and I will back the Rockets to cover the points.
Thursday 17th March
It was yet another mixed set of results for the picks this week on Wednesday, but I will go back for a couple more picks from the Thursday games.
I will add those to the picks section today as I haven't had the time with March Madness to put down my reasons today.
Friday 18th March
I can only say it is getting a little frustrating now... How did Washington blow their huge lead over the awful Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday?
That meant the picks go 1-1 for the fourth straight day and that is not really good enough for me. Hopefully I can get a little more consistency out of the last three days and keep this month trending in a positive direction.
MY PICKS: 14/03 Charlotte Hornets - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/03 Washington Wizards - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/03 Brooklyn Nets-Philadelphia 76ers Under 210 Total Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
15/03 Sacramento Kings - 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/03 Washington Wizards - 5 Points @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/03 Houston Rockets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/03 Toronto Raptors + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/03 Washington Wizards - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
March 14-20 Update: 4-4, - 0.36 Units
March 7-13 Final: 6-1-1, + 4.46 Units
March 1-6 Final: 8-7, + 0.32 Units
March 7-13 Final: 6-1-1, + 4.46 Units
March 1-6 Final: 8-7, + 0.32 Units
March Update: 14-8-1, + 4.78 Units
February Final: 21-27, - 7.77 Units
January Final: 21-23-2, - 3.80 UnitsFebruary Final: 21-27, - 7.77 Units
December Final: 27-21-3, + 3.67 Units
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 115-105-7, + 0.46 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2016 (March 14th)
Mikhail Youzhny didn't have anything left in the tank as I had suggested on Sunday and that meant him pulling out of his match against Roberto Bautista Agut before a ball had been struck in anger. That wasn't a big surprise, but it didn't make a difference on a day when all but one of the picks was a success and even the losing pick had a chance of winning.
That was because John Isner served for the match at 5-2 having not faced a break point in the entire match to that point- unfortunately he faced one in this service game to win the match, and the cover, but he couldn't save that break point that he faced and ultimately served it out a second time two games later to miss the cover by one game.
Frustrating as that was, it was a very good day for the picks otherwise and has gotten this Indian Wells tournament very much moving in the positive direction. I hope that is going to be a trend for the rest of the week and this can be another very strong week after a poor first seven weeks of 2016 for the picks.
There are still plenty of days to go before we can call Indian Wells a success or failure, but the platform is there to kick on this week and I do have a number of picks from the matches to be played on Monday.
Once again remember it is an earlier start than a few days ago thanks to the time change in the United States, but we should be used that in the United Kingdom for the next couple of weeks. It does mean the tennis is concluded at a more reasonable time which effectively means more tennis can be watched as the tournament begins to build towards the business end.
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: You never know what you are going to get from Alexandr Dolgopolov when he enters the court, but the erratic play he produces gives him some problems when faced with the better players on the Tour. There are times when Dolgopolov is simply unplayable and even the top players can struggle to put a lid on his game, but that isn't something he maintains through matches and I think someone like Richard Gasquet is solid enough to stay with him.
That might be the key to this match for Gasquet who is still finding his feet in 2016, although he has won a title already this season. The Frenchman has all the tools to be really successful although I think he can be found out when asked to run around the court.
It is the movement that Dolgopolov will look to expose in this one, although he hasn't beaten Gasquet in two previous matches. That last of those was five years ago so unlikely to play a part in this one, but Dolgopolov is still the mixed bag of shots as he was back then as he looks to entertain the crowd more than actually playing the right shots to win the match.
If Dolgopolov is on his game then he might blow Gasquet away, but too often he is not up to his highest standards and I expect the more consistent Frenchman to find his way through to the next Round.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Marin Cilic earned some revenge for a loss in Acapulco by seeing off Ryan Harrison fairly comfortably in the Second Round and I think he will be too good for Leonardo Mayer in the Third Round.
A couple of solid wins have helped Leonardo Mayer through to this Round at Indian Wells and it is much better than the results he has had so far in 2016. The Argentinian Number 1 has a decent first serve and is quite solid off the ground, but the opponent he faces in this Round is a significant step up in class.
Aggressive returning should put Cilic in a position to break serve, but he will need to serve well himself if he is going to be able to see off Mayer. That has been an issue for him at some moments this season which has made matches more awkward than they perhaps should have done and Cilic has to be aware that he can't give Mayer any encouragement in this one.
Marin Cilic did beat Leonardo Mayer fairly comfortably at the French Open last season and I think he played well enough in the Second Round to think he can get something similar out of this match. It might need a couple of breaks of serve in a set to make sure Cilic takes that to get going and I believe he comes through 64, 64 in this one.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: This is an interesting Third Round match at the Masters today and I think the Frenchman Gael Monfils will have a little too much athleticism for Albert Ramos-Vinolas. The latter has really dug in deep to win his last couple of matches to move into the Third Round, and that should have given him plenty of confidence.
However Ramos-Vinolas had to save a whole host of break points in his win over Nick Kyrgios and I am not so sure he will be able to get away with that kind of serving again. There are times when Monfils frustrates the life out of his fans with the poor shot selection and perhaps allowing his opponents to dictate the play, but he can still make a lot of balls back in play and that should lead to some errors from Ramos-Vinolas.
Monfils will have to serve well to keep the Spaniard at bay, and his first serve is solid enough to get a few cheap points out of this one. He will have been boosted by a tough win over Pablo Carreno Busta and Monfils did have a couple of solid runs at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam to suggest he is on the right path with his play at the moment.
It won't be easy and Monfils will have to ride out some tough moments, but I think he will battle past Ramos-Vinolas with a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: This looks a big spread on the face of things, especially when you consider how Stan Wawrinka can be a little off the boil at times and struggles with these big numbers. However the Number 3 Seed looked in good shape in the Second Round and I think Wawrinka being asked to cover this number at odds against is appealing to back him to do so.
The match won't be straight-forward against Andrey Kuznetsov who has had two solid wins in Indian Wells while pushing the likes of Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils to competitive matches earlier in the season. The Russian has a decent serve and backs it up effectively with his play off the ground, but he will be having to deal with some special power that comes from the Wawrinka racquet.
The key to the match will be the second serve of both players and how well their opponent can challenge that shot. It is an area that I believe Wawrinka will be the stronger of the two and the Swiss player has to be feeling good after winning the title in Dubai a couple of weeks ago.
A good serving day from Wawrinka should put him in a strong position to win this match 64, 63 and I think he can be backed at odds against to cover these games against a solid opponent, but ultimately one that gives him a few more chances to break serve.
Karolina Pliskova v Ana Ivanovic: There really isn't a lot I am going to say about this match in the Third Round of the Premier Event at Indian Wells.
Both Ana Ivanovic and Karolina Pliskova look to play the same way with a big serve setting up powerful groundstrokes. I can't imagine either player will look to change their tactics, but it has worked better for Pliskova who has beaten Ivanovic all three times they have met since September 2014.
In that time Pliskova has only dropped one set against Ivanovic and I think it simply comes down to a more consistent serve that the Czech player possesses. While her serve is a big weapon, Ivanovic can be erratic with her ball toss and can crumble when she is struggling to get the first serve in play.
That is a key difference and I think Pliskova will get a lot more shorter balls on the return than Ivanovic and that eventually helps her breakthrough the Serb's defences for the win as the slight underdog.
Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Denisa Allertova: This is the second time in 2016 that Johanna Konta and Denisa Allertova will be meeting and I expect the Great British Number 1 to come through for a second time. Both players will see this as a big chance to progress to the Fourth Round of a major WTA event, but Konta has experience behind her having done the same with a really positive run at the Australian Open.
For Denisa Allertova, she has to come through the emotional factor of beating the Australian Open Champion Angelique Kerber in the Second Round. Backing up those big wins can be difficult for players who are simply not used to having that success on the court at this moment of their career and the match with Konta is one where a totally different mindset is needed.
Konta has a very decent serve that can put pressure on Allertova and she is fairly convincing at the back of the court which makes her dangerous when it comes to a return of serve. She also has an ability to get plenty of balls back in play on the defensive and Allertova made a whole host of unforced errors when these players met at the Australian Open earlier this season.
This will be much closer than the 2 and 2 win that Konta had in that match, but I still think she can get the better of Allertova. The latter trying to back up her big win over Kerber is going to be tough mentally and I think Konta will work through for a 75, 64 win.
Sam Stosur - 1.5 games v Christine McHale: This has not been a great tournament for Sam Stosur over the years, but her battling win over Yanina Wickmayer in the Second Round may give her some confidence. Facing Christine McHale looks to be a winnable match in the Third Round, although the American had a very impressive couple of wins to get this this stage over Caroline Garcia and Garbine Muguruza.
Those are the kind of wins that will give McHale plenty of belief in her game as she heads into this one, but another mental hurdle to overcome is the three previous losses to the Australian. It has been a couple of years since Stosur last beat McHale so isn't a crucial factor, but a bigger one is whether the American can keep a lid on her emotions after a couple of really good wins.
McHale has shown some good form in 2016 with a solid run to the Semi Final in Acapulco as well as a lower level title win. Her retirement last week in Monterrey was a concern but McHale has a big game that could cause Stosur so many issues, although I am looking forward to seeing how she deals with the return of serve in this one.
Stosur doesn't have a lot of tennis in her legs in 2016 but her battling win over Wickmayer as well as two Fed Cup wins should give her the belief to have a couple of good runs in North America. She will have to serve well, but doing that should give Stosur a chance to come through in three battling sets and I expect she has enough to cover these games.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 15-8, + 11.48 Units (46 Units Staked, + 24.96% Yield)
That was because John Isner served for the match at 5-2 having not faced a break point in the entire match to that point- unfortunately he faced one in this service game to win the match, and the cover, but he couldn't save that break point that he faced and ultimately served it out a second time two games later to miss the cover by one game.
Frustrating as that was, it was a very good day for the picks otherwise and has gotten this Indian Wells tournament very much moving in the positive direction. I hope that is going to be a trend for the rest of the week and this can be another very strong week after a poor first seven weeks of 2016 for the picks.
There are still plenty of days to go before we can call Indian Wells a success or failure, but the platform is there to kick on this week and I do have a number of picks from the matches to be played on Monday.
Once again remember it is an earlier start than a few days ago thanks to the time change in the United States, but we should be used that in the United Kingdom for the next couple of weeks. It does mean the tennis is concluded at a more reasonable time which effectively means more tennis can be watched as the tournament begins to build towards the business end.
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: You never know what you are going to get from Alexandr Dolgopolov when he enters the court, but the erratic play he produces gives him some problems when faced with the better players on the Tour. There are times when Dolgopolov is simply unplayable and even the top players can struggle to put a lid on his game, but that isn't something he maintains through matches and I think someone like Richard Gasquet is solid enough to stay with him.
That might be the key to this match for Gasquet who is still finding his feet in 2016, although he has won a title already this season. The Frenchman has all the tools to be really successful although I think he can be found out when asked to run around the court.
It is the movement that Dolgopolov will look to expose in this one, although he hasn't beaten Gasquet in two previous matches. That last of those was five years ago so unlikely to play a part in this one, but Dolgopolov is still the mixed bag of shots as he was back then as he looks to entertain the crowd more than actually playing the right shots to win the match.
If Dolgopolov is on his game then he might blow Gasquet away, but too often he is not up to his highest standards and I expect the more consistent Frenchman to find his way through to the next Round.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Marin Cilic earned some revenge for a loss in Acapulco by seeing off Ryan Harrison fairly comfortably in the Second Round and I think he will be too good for Leonardo Mayer in the Third Round.
A couple of solid wins have helped Leonardo Mayer through to this Round at Indian Wells and it is much better than the results he has had so far in 2016. The Argentinian Number 1 has a decent first serve and is quite solid off the ground, but the opponent he faces in this Round is a significant step up in class.
Aggressive returning should put Cilic in a position to break serve, but he will need to serve well himself if he is going to be able to see off Mayer. That has been an issue for him at some moments this season which has made matches more awkward than they perhaps should have done and Cilic has to be aware that he can't give Mayer any encouragement in this one.
Marin Cilic did beat Leonardo Mayer fairly comfortably at the French Open last season and I think he played well enough in the Second Round to think he can get something similar out of this match. It might need a couple of breaks of serve in a set to make sure Cilic takes that to get going and I believe he comes through 64, 64 in this one.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: This is an interesting Third Round match at the Masters today and I think the Frenchman Gael Monfils will have a little too much athleticism for Albert Ramos-Vinolas. The latter has really dug in deep to win his last couple of matches to move into the Third Round, and that should have given him plenty of confidence.
However Ramos-Vinolas had to save a whole host of break points in his win over Nick Kyrgios and I am not so sure he will be able to get away with that kind of serving again. There are times when Monfils frustrates the life out of his fans with the poor shot selection and perhaps allowing his opponents to dictate the play, but he can still make a lot of balls back in play and that should lead to some errors from Ramos-Vinolas.
Monfils will have to serve well to keep the Spaniard at bay, and his first serve is solid enough to get a few cheap points out of this one. He will have been boosted by a tough win over Pablo Carreno Busta and Monfils did have a couple of solid runs at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam to suggest he is on the right path with his play at the moment.
It won't be easy and Monfils will have to ride out some tough moments, but I think he will battle past Ramos-Vinolas with a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: This looks a big spread on the face of things, especially when you consider how Stan Wawrinka can be a little off the boil at times and struggles with these big numbers. However the Number 3 Seed looked in good shape in the Second Round and I think Wawrinka being asked to cover this number at odds against is appealing to back him to do so.
The match won't be straight-forward against Andrey Kuznetsov who has had two solid wins in Indian Wells while pushing the likes of Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils to competitive matches earlier in the season. The Russian has a decent serve and backs it up effectively with his play off the ground, but he will be having to deal with some special power that comes from the Wawrinka racquet.
The key to the match will be the second serve of both players and how well their opponent can challenge that shot. It is an area that I believe Wawrinka will be the stronger of the two and the Swiss player has to be feeling good after winning the title in Dubai a couple of weeks ago.
A good serving day from Wawrinka should put him in a strong position to win this match 64, 63 and I think he can be backed at odds against to cover these games against a solid opponent, but ultimately one that gives him a few more chances to break serve.
Karolina Pliskova v Ana Ivanovic: There really isn't a lot I am going to say about this match in the Third Round of the Premier Event at Indian Wells.
Both Ana Ivanovic and Karolina Pliskova look to play the same way with a big serve setting up powerful groundstrokes. I can't imagine either player will look to change their tactics, but it has worked better for Pliskova who has beaten Ivanovic all three times they have met since September 2014.
In that time Pliskova has only dropped one set against Ivanovic and I think it simply comes down to a more consistent serve that the Czech player possesses. While her serve is a big weapon, Ivanovic can be erratic with her ball toss and can crumble when she is struggling to get the first serve in play.
That is a key difference and I think Pliskova will get a lot more shorter balls on the return than Ivanovic and that eventually helps her breakthrough the Serb's defences for the win as the slight underdog.
Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Denisa Allertova: This is the second time in 2016 that Johanna Konta and Denisa Allertova will be meeting and I expect the Great British Number 1 to come through for a second time. Both players will see this as a big chance to progress to the Fourth Round of a major WTA event, but Konta has experience behind her having done the same with a really positive run at the Australian Open.
For Denisa Allertova, she has to come through the emotional factor of beating the Australian Open Champion Angelique Kerber in the Second Round. Backing up those big wins can be difficult for players who are simply not used to having that success on the court at this moment of their career and the match with Konta is one where a totally different mindset is needed.
Konta has a very decent serve that can put pressure on Allertova and she is fairly convincing at the back of the court which makes her dangerous when it comes to a return of serve. She also has an ability to get plenty of balls back in play on the defensive and Allertova made a whole host of unforced errors when these players met at the Australian Open earlier this season.
This will be much closer than the 2 and 2 win that Konta had in that match, but I still think she can get the better of Allertova. The latter trying to back up her big win over Kerber is going to be tough mentally and I think Konta will work through for a 75, 64 win.
Sam Stosur - 1.5 games v Christine McHale: This has not been a great tournament for Sam Stosur over the years, but her battling win over Yanina Wickmayer in the Second Round may give her some confidence. Facing Christine McHale looks to be a winnable match in the Third Round, although the American had a very impressive couple of wins to get this this stage over Caroline Garcia and Garbine Muguruza.
Those are the kind of wins that will give McHale plenty of belief in her game as she heads into this one, but another mental hurdle to overcome is the three previous losses to the Australian. It has been a couple of years since Stosur last beat McHale so isn't a crucial factor, but a bigger one is whether the American can keep a lid on her emotions after a couple of really good wins.
McHale has shown some good form in 2016 with a solid run to the Semi Final in Acapulco as well as a lower level title win. Her retirement last week in Monterrey was a concern but McHale has a big game that could cause Stosur so many issues, although I am looking forward to seeing how she deals with the return of serve in this one.
Stosur doesn't have a lot of tennis in her legs in 2016 but her battling win over Wickmayer as well as two Fed Cup wins should give her the belief to have a couple of good runs in North America. She will have to serve well, but doing that should give Stosur a chance to come through in three battling sets and I expect she has enough to cover these games.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 15-8, + 11.48 Units (46 Units Staked, + 24.96% Yield)
Sunday, 13 March 2016
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2016 (March 13th)
It was a very strong day for the tennis picks on Saturday to get the Indian Wells tournament back on track. Hopefully Sunday will prove to be another strong day as the Third Round of the Premier Event begins as well as the conclusion of the Second Round of the Masters which sees Novak Djokovic return to the court for the first time since withdrawing in Dubai.
The tournament will begin slightly earlier for those of us in the United Kingdom over the next few days as America have already changed their clocks so be aware of that.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: There might be a few signs that Roberto Bautista Agut is coming back to par having made a blistering start to the 2016 season. For a player that thrives on being able to outlast opponents with his fitness, I think it has to be a worry that he has crumbled away so significantly in his last two losses.
In saying that, Bautista Agut should be ready for Indian Wells having had a couple of weeks off to prepare for the last two hard court events until later in the season. The first match is always going to be tough as players become accustomed to new conditions, but I think Bautista Agut is deservedly a big favourite to beat Mikhail Youzhny.
The veteran has played well at the lower levels this season as he tries to rebuild Ranking and confidence, while Youzhny has already won three matches in Indian Wells. However Youzhny had a poor 2015 and is just 1-1 on the main Tour this season including a one-sided defeat to Malek Jaziri in Dubai.
His win over Aljaz Bedene was far from easy and I do wonder if that has taken something out of Youzhny's legs. Bautista Agut will test that through this match and I like the Spaniard coming through with a 64, 63 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: These two Spanish compatriots have played some tight matches in the past and the head to head is 4-3 to Feliciano Lopez, a lead I am expecting him to extend in this Second Round match.
It has been an up and down start to the 2016 season for Feliciano Lopez but his run to the Semi Final in Dubai has to give him some confidence. He should really have won that Semi Final against Marcos Baghdatis, but Lopez will be happy with the performance and he did beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez along the way in three sets.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez had not been in the best form before he beat Ernests Gulbis in the First Round at Indian Wells and had been beaten in three matches in a row. There is some talent flowing from his racquet that has to be respected, but Garcia-Lopez has a serve that can be a little weak at times and that is where I believe Feliciano Lopez will take advantage.
The court itself isn't playing that fast, but the conditions in Indian Wells makes it hard to control the ball at times. With Lopez capable of getting to the net, he might take that time away from Garcia-Lopez and I like his chances of franking his win over his compatriot in Dubai by winning this one in three sets again.
Steve Johnson - 1.5 games v John Millman: 2016 has been a really poor season for Steve Johnson to this point, but one of the rare wins he has produced came against John Millman. I expect he can back that up in this Second Round even if Millman has a match under his belt, especially as Johnson is from California and should be all too aware of what kind of conditions there will be at Indian Wells.
Confidence is an issue for Johnson having had so many losses but some of those have been tight losses and I do wonder if he will be able to maintain his focus at critical times in this one. There have been some disappointing losses for Johnson to take too and he will have to dig deep in this one.
Facing someone like Millman who is going to give every ounce of effort for every single point is always a tough task if you're not feeling up to the top of your game. However Millman also has a serve that can be a weakness and the forehand can break down and I expect that will be a crucial difference in this one.
Johnson is a player from the United States that does have a decent serve and the heavy forehand and while this might go three sets, I expect he gets the better of Millman for a second time in a month.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Andreas Seppi had to battle past one American player in the First Round, but he will have to be a lot better than he was against Donald Young if he is going to beat John Isner. The conditions in Indian Wells have really appealed to Isner in the past and I think the big serving American Number 1 is going to see off Seppi in this one.
It has not been the start to 2016 that Isner may have expected, but his two wins in the Davis Cup to help the United States beat Australia has to be respected. That should give Isner some confidence and I think his serve makes him a big threat in the conditions at this event.
That serve will keep the pressure on Seppi whose own serve is something of a weakness and an area Isner can have success. Yes, the return game is limited, but Isner will be able to have a few swings at a serve that doesn't exactly blow players off the court.
It should make all the difference for Isner and I think he will find at least one break in this one that can help him through 76, 63.
The WTA Third Round Picks are below.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 10-7, + 4.50 Units (34 Units Staked, + 13.24% Yield)
The tournament will begin slightly earlier for those of us in the United Kingdom over the next few days as America have already changed their clocks so be aware of that.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: There might be a few signs that Roberto Bautista Agut is coming back to par having made a blistering start to the 2016 season. For a player that thrives on being able to outlast opponents with his fitness, I think it has to be a worry that he has crumbled away so significantly in his last two losses.
In saying that, Bautista Agut should be ready for Indian Wells having had a couple of weeks off to prepare for the last two hard court events until later in the season. The first match is always going to be tough as players become accustomed to new conditions, but I think Bautista Agut is deservedly a big favourite to beat Mikhail Youzhny.
The veteran has played well at the lower levels this season as he tries to rebuild Ranking and confidence, while Youzhny has already won three matches in Indian Wells. However Youzhny had a poor 2015 and is just 1-1 on the main Tour this season including a one-sided defeat to Malek Jaziri in Dubai.
His win over Aljaz Bedene was far from easy and I do wonder if that has taken something out of Youzhny's legs. Bautista Agut will test that through this match and I like the Spaniard coming through with a 64, 63 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: These two Spanish compatriots have played some tight matches in the past and the head to head is 4-3 to Feliciano Lopez, a lead I am expecting him to extend in this Second Round match.
It has been an up and down start to the 2016 season for Feliciano Lopez but his run to the Semi Final in Dubai has to give him some confidence. He should really have won that Semi Final against Marcos Baghdatis, but Lopez will be happy with the performance and he did beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez along the way in three sets.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez had not been in the best form before he beat Ernests Gulbis in the First Round at Indian Wells and had been beaten in three matches in a row. There is some talent flowing from his racquet that has to be respected, but Garcia-Lopez has a serve that can be a little weak at times and that is where I believe Feliciano Lopez will take advantage.
The court itself isn't playing that fast, but the conditions in Indian Wells makes it hard to control the ball at times. With Lopez capable of getting to the net, he might take that time away from Garcia-Lopez and I like his chances of franking his win over his compatriot in Dubai by winning this one in three sets again.
Steve Johnson - 1.5 games v John Millman: 2016 has been a really poor season for Steve Johnson to this point, but one of the rare wins he has produced came against John Millman. I expect he can back that up in this Second Round even if Millman has a match under his belt, especially as Johnson is from California and should be all too aware of what kind of conditions there will be at Indian Wells.
Confidence is an issue for Johnson having had so many losses but some of those have been tight losses and I do wonder if he will be able to maintain his focus at critical times in this one. There have been some disappointing losses for Johnson to take too and he will have to dig deep in this one.
Facing someone like Millman who is going to give every ounce of effort for every single point is always a tough task if you're not feeling up to the top of your game. However Millman also has a serve that can be a weakness and the forehand can break down and I expect that will be a crucial difference in this one.
Johnson is a player from the United States that does have a decent serve and the heavy forehand and while this might go three sets, I expect he gets the better of Millman for a second time in a month.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Andreas Seppi had to battle past one American player in the First Round, but he will have to be a lot better than he was against Donald Young if he is going to beat John Isner. The conditions in Indian Wells have really appealed to Isner in the past and I think the big serving American Number 1 is going to see off Seppi in this one.
It has not been the start to 2016 that Isner may have expected, but his two wins in the Davis Cup to help the United States beat Australia has to be respected. That should give Isner some confidence and I think his serve makes him a big threat in the conditions at this event.
That serve will keep the pressure on Seppi whose own serve is something of a weakness and an area Isner can have success. Yes, the return game is limited, but Isner will be able to have a few swings at a serve that doesn't exactly blow players off the court.
It should make all the difference for Isner and I think he will find at least one break in this one that can help him through 76, 63.
The WTA Third Round Picks are below.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 10-7, + 4.50 Units (34 Units Staked, + 13.24% Yield)
Saturday, 12 March 2016
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2016 (March 12th)
The tournament in Indian Wells really picks up from Saturday as all of the big names are in action in both the Masters and Premier Events that are being played here.
Saturday is a busy day for me so today I am simply putting my picks from the Second Round matches up here and Sunday I will be back to the normal posting.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Illya Marchenko + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.6% Yield)
Saturday is a busy day for me so today I am simply putting my picks from the Second Round matches up here and Sunday I will be back to the normal posting.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Illya Marchenko + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.6% Yield)
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