A number of new tournaments begin this Monday, but I have only made one outright pick from the event being held in Bogota which can be read here.
Andrey Golubev v Benoit Paire: Andrey Golubev is one of the more erratic players on the Tour which makes him a dangerous player to back, but I do think he will get the better of Benoit Paire.
Confidence has to be low for Paire considering he has lost nine of his last ten matches and he had a poor time on the clay courts earlier this season. There was no improvement with another loss in Stuttgart last week and he faces a player in Golubev that at least got to a Semi Final on the clay a couple of weeks ago, albeit on the Challenger level.
At this level of tennis, confidence does play a huge part in matches and Paire has lost a lot recently which can be a tough trend to break. I don't like some aspects of Golubev's game on the clay where his mistakes can be exposed, but I do think he can use a big first serve to set himself up for a win.
It might take three sets, but Golubev may just hold his nerve better and move through to the Second Round.
Albert Montanes - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: This has been a down year for the veteran Albert Montanes, but he was a little unfortunate to lose in the First Round last week and I still think there is enough in the tank to beat this qualifier.
Gastao Elias has played well on the Challenger circuit having reached the Final in two tournaments on the clay courts and he has won two matches to reach the First Round proper which will make him dangerous.
However, Elias has struggled at this level and the veteran Albert Montanes can at least give him something to think about. Montanes will have to play better than he has in his recent matches as he has three losses in a row, but it certainly looks like the Spaniard is going to slip down the Rankings.
Even with that in mind, Montanes has the know-how to win a match like this and I would expect him to come through 75, 64 after a few breaks of serve for both players.
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Jarkko Nieminen has won all four previous matches against Tobias Kamke, but it is just a quirk of the scheduling that all but one of those wins have come at the same tournament in Stockholm over the last few years.
Neither player has a dominant record on the clay courts which makes this a closer match to call than the odds may suggest, but I do think Nieminen can cause problems for Kamke.
The home crowd may give Kamke the support he needs to cause a surprise win, but I think Nieminen has the more effective serve that should help him hold serve more times than the German.
Another match that may need to go the distance to produce a winner, I like Nieminen to win 63, 36, 63.
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: It is a strange scheduling decision for Klara Koukalova to move from the grass courts to the clay courts for one tournament before heading to Istanbul for this hard court event.
However, Koukalova took an early loss last week and will have had time to get to Turkey and accustomed to the courts, while she will take further confidence from beating Donna Vekic on the hard courts twice already this season.
Koukalova has won all four sets they have competed in that time and she certainly has the return game to make life awkward for Vekic, although she will also need to serve effectively if she is to win this match.
Both players have shown decent hard court form in 2014 and both may feel the next two months are an important time to build points, but I think Koukalova may have the mental edge to come through in two tight sets.
MY PICKS: Andrey Golubev @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 2.5 Games @ 1.81 Unitbet (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Unitbet (2 Units)
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Monday, 14 July 2014
Sunday, 13 July 2014
Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (July 14-20)
The last grass court event of the season came to an end last week and the Tour moves onto the biggest clay court event held in the summer with the ATP 500 tournament in Hamburg. We also get to see the first signs of the summer hard court swing with Bogota in the men's and Istanbul in the women's Tours getting underway this week.
The big names won't be in action until the tournaments held in Canada in two weeks time, but that doesn't mean there aren't some big titles to be won and the players in action will certainly feel they can pick up vital Ranking points that might set them up for a decent few weeks heading into the US Open.
ATP Bogota
This is the second year that this ATP 250 tournament in Colombia is being held and the altitude of the stadium made it a server's paradise a year ago. On that occasion, big servers like Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic all made the Semi Finals along with home favourite Alejandro Falla and three of those four players are back to compete for the title again.
It was Ivo Karlovic who won the title twelve months ago and is the Number 2 Seed this time which means he has a bye to the Second Round, but Karlovic is also coming off a big week in Newport where he has reached the Final (playing Lleyton Hewitt as I write this).
The big man has been placed in the 'weaker' half of the draw as he looks to defend his title, although his biggest threat could be Radek Stepanek who is a potential Semi Final opponent and who has won four of their five previous meetings.
Stepanek has been in decent form over the grass court season, but he would likely have to beat a couple of home hopes to reach the Semi Final and I do think Karlovic has every chance of at least reaching the Final again. However, I will look elsewhere simply because he has had a long week in Newport and there is no telling how much energy the 35 year old will have left after making the journey down to Colombia.
This isn't the deepest draw in terms of talent so looking at the Number 1 Seed Richard Gasquet is not a surprise with his previous hard court success. He could have a difficult match against the big-serving Samuel Groth in the Second Round, his first match here, but if the Frenchman can negotiate that, I would fancy him to get to the Final at the very least.
Gasquet could also be fortunate to take on whoever comes out of the second section of the draw as they are likely to have had a number of tough matches to that point. Both Falla and Pospisil are in this mini-section, but are joined by the likes of Bernard Tomic and Adrian Mannarino who will believe they can make their way into the Semi Finals.
Tiredness may become a factor for them and backing Gasquet, who does look the cream of the talent in Bogota, is going to be my call from this tournament.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 6-4, + 4.04 Units (20 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2014: + 51.80 Units (1072.5 Units Staked, + 4.83% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
The big names won't be in action until the tournaments held in Canada in two weeks time, but that doesn't mean there aren't some big titles to be won and the players in action will certainly feel they can pick up vital Ranking points that might set them up for a decent few weeks heading into the US Open.
ATP Bogota
This is the second year that this ATP 250 tournament in Colombia is being held and the altitude of the stadium made it a server's paradise a year ago. On that occasion, big servers like Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic all made the Semi Finals along with home favourite Alejandro Falla and three of those four players are back to compete for the title again.
It was Ivo Karlovic who won the title twelve months ago and is the Number 2 Seed this time which means he has a bye to the Second Round, but Karlovic is also coming off a big week in Newport where he has reached the Final (playing Lleyton Hewitt as I write this).
The big man has been placed in the 'weaker' half of the draw as he looks to defend his title, although his biggest threat could be Radek Stepanek who is a potential Semi Final opponent and who has won four of their five previous meetings.
Stepanek has been in decent form over the grass court season, but he would likely have to beat a couple of home hopes to reach the Semi Final and I do think Karlovic has every chance of at least reaching the Final again. However, I will look elsewhere simply because he has had a long week in Newport and there is no telling how much energy the 35 year old will have left after making the journey down to Colombia.
This isn't the deepest draw in terms of talent so looking at the Number 1 Seed Richard Gasquet is not a surprise with his previous hard court success. He could have a difficult match against the big-serving Samuel Groth in the Second Round, his first match here, but if the Frenchman can negotiate that, I would fancy him to get to the Final at the very least.
Gasquet could also be fortunate to take on whoever comes out of the second section of the draw as they are likely to have had a number of tough matches to that point. Both Falla and Pospisil are in this mini-section, but are joined by the likes of Bernard Tomic and Adrian Mannarino who will believe they can make their way into the Semi Finals.
Tiredness may become a factor for them and backing Gasquet, who does look the cream of the talent in Bogota, is going to be my call from this tournament.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 6-4, + 4.04 Units (20 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2014: + 51.80 Units (1072.5 Units Staked, + 4.83% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
World Cup 2014 Final Pick- Germany v Argentina (July 13th)
This has been one of the best World Cup Finals that I have ever enjoyed and easily the best edition of the tournament since 1998 in my opinion.
Through the last four weeks we have seen some memorable team performances including the reigning World Champions Spain being dismantled by the Netherlands, but the German crushing of Brazil in the Semi Final will be one of those games that is talked about forever.
There is little doubt in my mind that it was the most surreal game that I have ever witnessed- Brazil just don't lose games 1-7, let alone in World Cup Semi Finals and even rarer that it was a Semi Final played at home. It was as disgraceful a performance I have seen from a defence that seemingly parted like the Red Sea every time Germany came forward.
The second Semi Final was a complete contrast to the first with a nervous game played by both Argentina and the Netherlands, one that produced little in goalmouth action until the penalty shoot out. This time Louis Van Gaal couldn't bring on a substitute goalkeeper and it was Argentina that progressed to a Final for the first time in twenty-four years and an opportunity to win the greatest prize in the home of their biggest rivals.
Hopefully the Final will be a memorable one, although the last time these teams met at this stage in the 1990 World Cup Final, it was anything but a great game. Of course that was the second consecutive World Cup Final between West Germany and Argentina with one win apiece coming into the 2014 edition.
Germany v Argentina Pick: The first thing I noticed with the prices for the World Cup Final was the fact that the Germans are considered healthy favourites to win the game within ninety minutes. That surprised me considering some of the performances Germany have had in the tournament, but the 7-1 win over Brazil in the Semi Final has clearly impressed the layers to the point that Germany are considered a strong favourite.
Argentina have also failed to score in two of their last three games (within ninety minutes) and it would be fair to say that they have yet to really spark in the tournament. Lionel Messi scored his four goals in the Group Stage, but has not looked at his best in the knock out stage, while the likes of Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria may not be at full health.
On the other hand, an injury forced Joachim Loew's hands in moving Philip Lahm into a more comfortable full back slot and that has seen improved performances from Germany. The 'false nine' position has been removed with Miroslav Klose a legitimate forward and that has helped Germany look more threatening going forward with the likes of Thomas Moeller and Mesut Ozil attacking from deep.
It will be up to the likes of Javier Mascherano to shut down the German attack before it gets to the defence, but Argentina have been pretty solid defensively through the last four weeks. Not many goals have been conceded, but Germany have enough about their attacks to cause problems and I haven't forgotten the problems that both Nigeria and Iran caused Argentina in the Group.
I would be expecting Germany to be able to do the same, although nerves are going to play a big factor in this Final- both teams have so much to lose if they fail to pick up the title and that could make both managers set up their teams to counter what the other does rather than a proactive approach to win the game.
If Argentina score first, they have been disciplined enough to prevent Germany getting back into the game... On the other hand, if Germany go in front, they could pick off the South Americans as they push forward to get back into the game.
Of the two teams, I have been more impressed with Germany over the course of the last four weeks and they do look a team that is ready to shake off the 'nearly men' tag and win a first major international tournament since 1996. Germany have reached the Final in 2002, the Semi Finals in 2006 and 2010 in the World Cup, while also being Semi Finalists in 2012 and Finalists in 2008 at the European Championships and those experiences may set up this team which is reaching their peak to go an extra step.
Argentina may have the best player on the park, but Germany play as a great unit and there are match winners littered in their squad so I will back the side to become the first European team to win in the Americas.
MY PICK: Germany to Win @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Through the last four weeks we have seen some memorable team performances including the reigning World Champions Spain being dismantled by the Netherlands, but the German crushing of Brazil in the Semi Final will be one of those games that is talked about forever.
There is little doubt in my mind that it was the most surreal game that I have ever witnessed- Brazil just don't lose games 1-7, let alone in World Cup Semi Finals and even rarer that it was a Semi Final played at home. It was as disgraceful a performance I have seen from a defence that seemingly parted like the Red Sea every time Germany came forward.
The second Semi Final was a complete contrast to the first with a nervous game played by both Argentina and the Netherlands, one that produced little in goalmouth action until the penalty shoot out. This time Louis Van Gaal couldn't bring on a substitute goalkeeper and it was Argentina that progressed to a Final for the first time in twenty-four years and an opportunity to win the greatest prize in the home of their biggest rivals.
Hopefully the Final will be a memorable one, although the last time these teams met at this stage in the 1990 World Cup Final, it was anything but a great game. Of course that was the second consecutive World Cup Final between West Germany and Argentina with one win apiece coming into the 2014 edition.
Germany v Argentina Pick: The first thing I noticed with the prices for the World Cup Final was the fact that the Germans are considered healthy favourites to win the game within ninety minutes. That surprised me considering some of the performances Germany have had in the tournament, but the 7-1 win over Brazil in the Semi Final has clearly impressed the layers to the point that Germany are considered a strong favourite.
Argentina have also failed to score in two of their last three games (within ninety minutes) and it would be fair to say that they have yet to really spark in the tournament. Lionel Messi scored his four goals in the Group Stage, but has not looked at his best in the knock out stage, while the likes of Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria may not be at full health.
On the other hand, an injury forced Joachim Loew's hands in moving Philip Lahm into a more comfortable full back slot and that has seen improved performances from Germany. The 'false nine' position has been removed with Miroslav Klose a legitimate forward and that has helped Germany look more threatening going forward with the likes of Thomas Moeller and Mesut Ozil attacking from deep.
It will be up to the likes of Javier Mascherano to shut down the German attack before it gets to the defence, but Argentina have been pretty solid defensively through the last four weeks. Not many goals have been conceded, but Germany have enough about their attacks to cause problems and I haven't forgotten the problems that both Nigeria and Iran caused Argentina in the Group.
I would be expecting Germany to be able to do the same, although nerves are going to play a big factor in this Final- both teams have so much to lose if they fail to pick up the title and that could make both managers set up their teams to counter what the other does rather than a proactive approach to win the game.
If Argentina score first, they have been disciplined enough to prevent Germany getting back into the game... On the other hand, if Germany go in front, they could pick off the South Americans as they push forward to get back into the game.
Of the two teams, I have been more impressed with Germany over the course of the last four weeks and they do look a team that is ready to shake off the 'nearly men' tag and win a first major international tournament since 1996. Germany have reached the Final in 2002, the Semi Finals in 2006 and 2010 in the World Cup, while also being Semi Finalists in 2012 and Finalists in 2008 at the European Championships and those experiences may set up this team which is reaching their peak to go an extra step.
Argentina may have the best player on the park, but Germany play as a great unit and there are match winners littered in their squad so I will back the side to become the first European team to win in the Americas.
MY PICK: Germany to Win @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 13th)
The last three days in Barcelona were just the kind of break I needed, especially after hearing that the weather in London had been pretty poor since Thursday morning. The sporting world doesn't shut down for a break though and there were big news stories in the last couple of days with LeBron James making a huge decision to return home and Luis Suarez leaving English football to sign with Barcelona (happened day after I visited the Nou Camp so none of the obvious photos of me biting into his new Barcelona top).
At the same time, this week's tennis have reached the Final stage of their events, including Stuttgart which I thought was going to be in trouble thanks to all the rain in the area. The bad news for the picks was the fact that both John Isner and Fernando Verdasco failed to reach the business end of their respective tournaments in Newport and Bastad, the latter in the more disappointing fashion having lost in the Semi Final despite being a strong favourite to win the title.
Ivo Karlovic v Lleyton Hewitt: The Final in Newport brings together two players who have a real history with one another on the grass courts, albeit not at this event.
Ivo Karlovic produced a seismic shock as a relative unknown when beating defending Wimbledon Champion Lleyton Hewitt in the First Round back in 2003 and has since won four of their five meetings. Three of those wins came on the grass courts of Wimbledon and Queens, while the sole win for Hewitt was at Roland Garros when he was forced to come from two sets down to beat the giant Croatian.
Over the years, Hewitt has loved playing the big servers as he trusted his return to make life as awkward as possible for them, while his defensive skills meant he could force them to hit one more shot than they wanted to. Those skills have deteriorated over the last few years and he struggled against Feliciano Lopez and Jerzy Janowicz during this grass court season, while Karlovic has always had the kryptonite to beat Hewitt.
Both players have been in good form this week to reach the Final, the third time in a row that Lleyton Hewitt has done that in Newport. However, Hewitt has come up short the last two times he has played in the Final, including missing a real chance against Nicolas Mahut last season after being a set and a break up.
Hewitt makes too many errors these days and I also think Karlovic holds a mental edge over him, while the serve reaches such heights that the Australian can struggle to deal with it. In all honesty, I am not sure why the big man is the underdog in this match and I like him to take the title home.
MY PICK: Ivo Karlovic @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-3, + 6.04 Units (18 Units Staked, + 33.56% Yield)
At the same time, this week's tennis have reached the Final stage of their events, including Stuttgart which I thought was going to be in trouble thanks to all the rain in the area. The bad news for the picks was the fact that both John Isner and Fernando Verdasco failed to reach the business end of their respective tournaments in Newport and Bastad, the latter in the more disappointing fashion having lost in the Semi Final despite being a strong favourite to win the title.
Ivo Karlovic v Lleyton Hewitt: The Final in Newport brings together two players who have a real history with one another on the grass courts, albeit not at this event.
Ivo Karlovic produced a seismic shock as a relative unknown when beating defending Wimbledon Champion Lleyton Hewitt in the First Round back in 2003 and has since won four of their five meetings. Three of those wins came on the grass courts of Wimbledon and Queens, while the sole win for Hewitt was at Roland Garros when he was forced to come from two sets down to beat the giant Croatian.
Over the years, Hewitt has loved playing the big servers as he trusted his return to make life as awkward as possible for them, while his defensive skills meant he could force them to hit one more shot than they wanted to. Those skills have deteriorated over the last few years and he struggled against Feliciano Lopez and Jerzy Janowicz during this grass court season, while Karlovic has always had the kryptonite to beat Hewitt.
Both players have been in good form this week to reach the Final, the third time in a row that Lleyton Hewitt has done that in Newport. However, Hewitt has come up short the last two times he has played in the Final, including missing a real chance against Nicolas Mahut last season after being a set and a break up.
Hewitt makes too many errors these days and I also think Karlovic holds a mental edge over him, while the serve reaches such heights that the Australian can struggle to deal with it. In all honesty, I am not sure why the big man is the underdog in this match and I like him to take the title home.
MY PICK: Ivo Karlovic @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-3, + 6.04 Units (18 Units Staked, + 33.56% Yield)
Thursday, 10 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 10th)
With a short trip to Barcelona up next for myself, these will be the last picks made from the tennis tournaments this week and I will be back for the World Cup Final which will be the next post I make on Sunday morning.
I do have my outright picks from the events which can be read here.
Pablo Carreno-Busta - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Both of these players are more than a little comfortable on the clay courts and they will see this as a good chance to get through to a Quarter Final in an ATP 250 event.
Those will give the winner a decent number of points with the majority of their success coming on the Challenger circuit where both Pablo Carreno-Busta and Paolo Lorenzi have proved too good for the majority of their competition.
The four previous matches between the pair have been split two apiece, but Carreno-Busta has won the two meetings on the clay courts, albeit in two tight matches. The Spaniard had a disappointing loss in a Challenger in Germany on the red dirt, but this surface remains his most effective one and I think he can outlast Lorenzi again.
It could easily need three sets to separate the players, but I do like Carreno-Busta to win 76, 64.
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 5.5 games v Louk Sorensen: This has already been a decent week for Louk Sorensen from Ireland, although he was the beneficiary of being a Lucky Loser before beating Igor Sijsling in the First Round.
However, despite a solid week to this point, Sorensen is outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and is playing an opponent in Roberto Bautista-Agut could expose some of his shortcomings.
Bautista-Agut is capable of playing strong defensive tennis which should aid him on the clay courts, although the downside is that his serve can be vulnerable and the Spaniard doesn't have the penetrating groundstrokes to win easy points.
I'd still expect him to have too much for Sorensen in this Second Round match though and I do think Bautista-Agut is going to come through with a 64, 62 win.
Santiago Giraldo - 5.5 games v Philip Davydenko: Any time you hear the name Davydenko on the tennis circuit, you would immediately think about Nikolay and the success he had for a number of years at the top of the game.
Now it is his nephew Philip who will be looking to keep the name in the public eye, although he has struggled to make an impact on the Tour and is outside the top 600 in the World Rankings. Davydenko is 21 years old so the hope was that he could crack on with the move up the Rankings and winning four matches in Stuttgart will certainly help his cause.
Unfortunately for Philip Davydenko, his time in the tournament should come to an end against Santiago Giraldo who had been playing some very strong tennis before an injury forced a withdrawal in Rome. Giraldo did seem back on track with a Third Round showing at Wimbledon and was a comfortable winner in the First Round in Stuttgart.
I would expect his knowledge of the Tour and the extra consistency to really favour the Colombian in tis match and I think Giraldo shows that off with a 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno-Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)
I do have my outright picks from the events which can be read here.
Pablo Carreno-Busta - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Both of these players are more than a little comfortable on the clay courts and they will see this as a good chance to get through to a Quarter Final in an ATP 250 event.
Those will give the winner a decent number of points with the majority of their success coming on the Challenger circuit where both Pablo Carreno-Busta and Paolo Lorenzi have proved too good for the majority of their competition.
The four previous matches between the pair have been split two apiece, but Carreno-Busta has won the two meetings on the clay courts, albeit in two tight matches. The Spaniard had a disappointing loss in a Challenger in Germany on the red dirt, but this surface remains his most effective one and I think he can outlast Lorenzi again.
It could easily need three sets to separate the players, but I do like Carreno-Busta to win 76, 64.
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 5.5 games v Louk Sorensen: This has already been a decent week for Louk Sorensen from Ireland, although he was the beneficiary of being a Lucky Loser before beating Igor Sijsling in the First Round.
However, despite a solid week to this point, Sorensen is outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and is playing an opponent in Roberto Bautista-Agut could expose some of his shortcomings.
Bautista-Agut is capable of playing strong defensive tennis which should aid him on the clay courts, although the downside is that his serve can be vulnerable and the Spaniard doesn't have the penetrating groundstrokes to win easy points.
I'd still expect him to have too much for Sorensen in this Second Round match though and I do think Bautista-Agut is going to come through with a 64, 62 win.
Santiago Giraldo - 5.5 games v Philip Davydenko: Any time you hear the name Davydenko on the tennis circuit, you would immediately think about Nikolay and the success he had for a number of years at the top of the game.
Now it is his nephew Philip who will be looking to keep the name in the public eye, although he has struggled to make an impact on the Tour and is outside the top 600 in the World Rankings. Davydenko is 21 years old so the hope was that he could crack on with the move up the Rankings and winning four matches in Stuttgart will certainly help his cause.
Unfortunately for Philip Davydenko, his time in the tournament should come to an end against Santiago Giraldo who had been playing some very strong tennis before an injury forced a withdrawal in Rome. Giraldo did seem back on track with a Third Round showing at Wimbledon and was a comfortable winner in the First Round in Stuttgart.
I would expect his knowledge of the Tour and the extra consistency to really favour the Colombian in tis match and I think Giraldo shows that off with a 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno-Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)
Wednesday, 9 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 9th)
The weather in Stuttgart has completely put that tournament on its knees and I have no idea where they are going to find the time to play the event in the fashion they would want. The rain is scheduled through the whole week and they are already behind play there so an outdoor clay court event may have to change tact.
I always find the week after the Grand Slams being a little slower and harder to find the picks I would like with the one exception being the French Open which has been followed by the grass court season immediately. Next season that might be the case again with new tournaments placed behind the French Open which may not be attended by the biggest names and the likes of Queens and Halle, both upgraded to ATP 500 events, will be played ten days after the French Open Final.
This week has proven to be no different with the layers taking their time to price up matches and my focus has mainly been on Newport to this point. On Thursday, I will be making a short trip to Barcelona to enjoy a mini-break so I won't be making any picks for the matches scheduled for Friday or Saturday (I may even miss out Thursday as Newport won't be priced up by the time I leave and may not find the picks from the other four tournaments worth backing).
Two out of three picks came in as winners yesterday thanks to Ryan Harrison hammering Lleyton Hewitt in the first set, even if he didn't have enough to win the match in three sets. Jack Sock backed up his Doubles win at Wimbledon with a comfortable First Round win over Alex Kuznetsov, but Tim Smyczek couldn't win the first set tie-break against Austin Krajicek and was then hammered in the second set.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: Steve Johnson is one of a number of American players that played tennis through College before making the move to the Professional ranks and he has admitted that it took a bit of time to get used to that. Playing on the Tour is as much mental as it is about the talent you have and Johnson admitted that he didn't cope with 'living out of a suitcase' when first moving onto the Tour, but is now in a much stronger place.
He has already posted the most wins on the Tour in a single year in his short career with 11 this season, and Johnson has to be looking forward to the next six weeks with the North American hard court swing.
First, Johnson is looking for one more decent run on the grass after dismissing Clay Thompson and the match up with Tatsuma Ito should be one he can take advantage of. Ito has to be given due concern after qualifying for Wimbledon and reaching a Quarter Final in a Challenger event in Nottingham so confidence has to be high in the tennis that he is producing.
However, the serve can be a vulnerable part of Ito's game and anything less than a top performance there will give Johnson an opportunity, although the American has to take care of his own unforced errors. It won't be as straight-forward as a 64, 64 scoreline would suggest, but that is where I see the match ending up with break points taken on both sides.
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Luke Saville: When you see someone of your own age bracket begin to push on up the Rankings, it has to be an inspiration for a player to try and achieve the same thing. That has to be doubled when the player is from your own country and likely to be someone you have mixed with and known and that is where Luke Saville must stand.
The 20 year old former Wimbledon Junior Champion will have seen the success Nick Kyrgios had at Wimbledon last week and really feel he can push on too. Saville didn't have a bad tournament either after coming through the qualifiers and reaching the Second Round before finding Grigor Dimitrov too tough.
That could be the case again on Wednesday with Saville taking on Nicolas Mahut, although the Frenchman hasn't had the same type of grass court campaign that brought him so much success last season. Mahut does feel comfortable in Newport as the defending Champion, but he has had three very disappointing losses on the grass over the last month.
That makes Mahut vulnerable to another surprise loss on Wednesday, but I think his serve-volley skills will end up keeping the younger man under pressure and that will build to the point of giving Mahut a 76, 63 win.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: My biggest issue in backing someone like Adrian Mannarino is that I don't trust his serve and think that is one of the weakest shots in his armoury which makes it tough to win matches.
However, this match against Dudi Sela will offer Mannarino as many chances to break serve as he gives up and I think his added performances on the grass courts will prove to be the difference for the Frenchman.
Of course there has to be some concern with the amount of tennis Mannarino has played recently after winning a Challenger tournament in Manta last week and having to fly to Newport for this tournament. He did record an impressive win over Jimmy Wang in the First Round so perhaps the confidence is high enough to build adrenaline to fight through these matches.
Sela has been something of a 'gate-keeper' on the Tour as he has always seemed too good for the Challenger circuit, but not quite good enough for the main Tour. He can cause problems for players with the style of tennis he plays and is a decent shot-maker, but I still think Mannarino wins this 64, 76.
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: Two players that enjoy playing on the grass courts will be meeting in the Second Round, but I have a little more faith in Ivo Karlovic winning the match than I do in Sergiy Stakhovsky.
Both players will rely on the serve to build pressure on the opponent, but Stakhovsky can be a little more erratic with his volleying and that is where Karlovic may find his had the more limited chances to break serve.
Stakhovsky is the better returner, but Karlovic possesses a monster serve that will make it hard to create chances, especially as he gets into the net and likes to put away his volleys.
Tie-breaks are going to play a part, but I think Karlovic is going to have the chance to break the Stakhovsky serve and that should lead to a win for the big-serving Croatian with a 76, 67, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.10 Units (6 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)
I always find the week after the Grand Slams being a little slower and harder to find the picks I would like with the one exception being the French Open which has been followed by the grass court season immediately. Next season that might be the case again with new tournaments placed behind the French Open which may not be attended by the biggest names and the likes of Queens and Halle, both upgraded to ATP 500 events, will be played ten days after the French Open Final.
This week has proven to be no different with the layers taking their time to price up matches and my focus has mainly been on Newport to this point. On Thursday, I will be making a short trip to Barcelona to enjoy a mini-break so I won't be making any picks for the matches scheduled for Friday or Saturday (I may even miss out Thursday as Newport won't be priced up by the time I leave and may not find the picks from the other four tournaments worth backing).
Two out of three picks came in as winners yesterday thanks to Ryan Harrison hammering Lleyton Hewitt in the first set, even if he didn't have enough to win the match in three sets. Jack Sock backed up his Doubles win at Wimbledon with a comfortable First Round win over Alex Kuznetsov, but Tim Smyczek couldn't win the first set tie-break against Austin Krajicek and was then hammered in the second set.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: Steve Johnson is one of a number of American players that played tennis through College before making the move to the Professional ranks and he has admitted that it took a bit of time to get used to that. Playing on the Tour is as much mental as it is about the talent you have and Johnson admitted that he didn't cope with 'living out of a suitcase' when first moving onto the Tour, but is now in a much stronger place.
He has already posted the most wins on the Tour in a single year in his short career with 11 this season, and Johnson has to be looking forward to the next six weeks with the North American hard court swing.
First, Johnson is looking for one more decent run on the grass after dismissing Clay Thompson and the match up with Tatsuma Ito should be one he can take advantage of. Ito has to be given due concern after qualifying for Wimbledon and reaching a Quarter Final in a Challenger event in Nottingham so confidence has to be high in the tennis that he is producing.
However, the serve can be a vulnerable part of Ito's game and anything less than a top performance there will give Johnson an opportunity, although the American has to take care of his own unforced errors. It won't be as straight-forward as a 64, 64 scoreline would suggest, but that is where I see the match ending up with break points taken on both sides.
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Luke Saville: When you see someone of your own age bracket begin to push on up the Rankings, it has to be an inspiration for a player to try and achieve the same thing. That has to be doubled when the player is from your own country and likely to be someone you have mixed with and known and that is where Luke Saville must stand.
The 20 year old former Wimbledon Junior Champion will have seen the success Nick Kyrgios had at Wimbledon last week and really feel he can push on too. Saville didn't have a bad tournament either after coming through the qualifiers and reaching the Second Round before finding Grigor Dimitrov too tough.
That could be the case again on Wednesday with Saville taking on Nicolas Mahut, although the Frenchman hasn't had the same type of grass court campaign that brought him so much success last season. Mahut does feel comfortable in Newport as the defending Champion, but he has had three very disappointing losses on the grass over the last month.
That makes Mahut vulnerable to another surprise loss on Wednesday, but I think his serve-volley skills will end up keeping the younger man under pressure and that will build to the point of giving Mahut a 76, 63 win.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: My biggest issue in backing someone like Adrian Mannarino is that I don't trust his serve and think that is one of the weakest shots in his armoury which makes it tough to win matches.
However, this match against Dudi Sela will offer Mannarino as many chances to break serve as he gives up and I think his added performances on the grass courts will prove to be the difference for the Frenchman.
Of course there has to be some concern with the amount of tennis Mannarino has played recently after winning a Challenger tournament in Manta last week and having to fly to Newport for this tournament. He did record an impressive win over Jimmy Wang in the First Round so perhaps the confidence is high enough to build adrenaline to fight through these matches.
Sela has been something of a 'gate-keeper' on the Tour as he has always seemed too good for the Challenger circuit, but not quite good enough for the main Tour. He can cause problems for players with the style of tennis he plays and is a decent shot-maker, but I still think Mannarino wins this 64, 76.
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: Two players that enjoy playing on the grass courts will be meeting in the Second Round, but I have a little more faith in Ivo Karlovic winning the match than I do in Sergiy Stakhovsky.
Both players will rely on the serve to build pressure on the opponent, but Stakhovsky can be a little more erratic with his volleying and that is where Karlovic may find his had the more limited chances to break serve.
Stakhovsky is the better returner, but Karlovic possesses a monster serve that will make it hard to create chances, especially as he gets into the net and likes to put away his volleys.
Tie-breaks are going to play a part, but I think Karlovic is going to have the chance to break the Stakhovsky serve and that should lead to a win for the big-serving Croatian with a 76, 67, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.10 Units (6 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)
Tuesday, 8 July 2014
World Cup 2014 Semi Final Picks (July 8-9)
The knock out phase of the World Cup has seen the tournament return to the kind of football that comes in major international tournaments when the pressure filled environment begins. Now teams have something more to lose, the cavalier approach of the Group Stage has been replaced with more tense games and plenty of extra time/penalties to separate teams.
It wouldn't surprise me if both World Cup Semi Final matches follow the pattern that has been set with the goals also drying up as teams look to make themselves hard to beat and so the creativity has been stifled now teams are focusing on shutting down the top players.
The Semi Final line up looks very strong in terms of what these international nations have done in the past with ten World Cup titles between the four nations left in Brazil. Add in the fact that they have also contributed to ten runners up and you know Brazil, Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands are soaked in a rich history.
Picking a winner is proving to be a difficult task for all with none of the teams really separating themselves from the pack and injuries/suspensions beginning to take their toll. Two tight Semi Finals look to be developing, although early goals could potentially open things up in both games even if it didn't quite work out that way in the Quarter Finals.
Brazil v Germany Pick: If you ignore all the whining being done by the Brazilians in the wake of losing Neymar for the tournament, some may consider this a 'reap what you sow' kind of situation. The referee allowed Brazil to kick James Rodriguez off the park in the Quarter Final win over Colombia so it seems kind of strange that so many feel so aggrieved that the Brazilian star player suffered an injury from the sole 'bad' tackle he suffered.
The last two Brazil games have produced the most fouls in the tournament and there is a real sense that the hosts are looking to 'kick their way to the title'. Without Neymar, Brazil have lost their biggest spark up front and the one player that can spark a moment of magic to win games and that is the reason they are no longer the favourites to win on home soil.
A lot of the goals have come from set pieces though, including both in the Quarter Final and the one against Chile in the Second Round, but Germany will feel they can deal with that threat effectively. If they can. Germany have every chance of reaching their first Final since 2002 and trying to win the World Cup for the first time since 1990.
Thiago Silva is another key loss for Brazil at an inopportune time, but Germany have persisted with a 'false nine' formation that might not exploit the uncertainty at the heart of the Brazil defence. Dante is an opponent that the Germans will know all about, while David Luiz is always susceptible to taking a big chance that can lead to a mistake so Joachim Loew has to find a way to exploit these areas of the pitch.
It does feel the game could be won or lost in the middle of the park where Luis Gustavo returns for Brazil and is the part of the pitch where both Brazil and Germany will feel they are better equipped. The winner of those battles will be able to control the game and force the quick breaks forward that can make the difference in the match and it is going to be tough to call.
In my opinion, Brazil have to show something they haven't through the tournament if they are to win this game and all without their two best players. Losing two of the four man spine of a team is tough to replace and Germany have enough experience to deal with the situation.
After coming close to the Final in 2006 and 2010, Germany can surprise the hosts and end their party right here by beating Brazil in an intriguing Semi Final.
Netherlands v Argentina Pick: Hands up if you saw that coming? Brazil were an absolute shambles in their 1-7 loss to Germany in the first World Cup Semi Final, but I would be surprised if we even got to see half that number of goals in this one.
Both the Netherlands and Argentina have a rich history in the World Cup including one meeting in the Final back in 1978, the sole time Argentina have gotten the better of the Dutch in a competitive game.
They played out a goalless draw, one that mutually benefited both nations, in the Group Stage in 2006 and I don't foresee a game with many goals in this one either. Robin Van Persie is a doubt for Holland, while Angel Di Maria has been ruled out for Argentina.
Better news for Argentina is the return of Sergio Aguero, but Holland also had some good news that Nigel de Jong is back in training and there are more similarities with both nations relying on their star player in forward positions- Lionel Messi for Argentina; Arjen Robben for Holland.
The teams will know whoever shackles the other team's top threat is likely to move into the Final on Sunday and that could lead to a tactical game with not much space to exploit. The one nagging doubt against that happening are the two defences that look vulnerable when players are running at them and both Messi and Robben are capable of doing that to great effect.
My feeling is that Argentina will find the three forwards they have in Aguero, Messi and Gonzalo Higuain and one of those will find that bit of magic to separate the sides. I don't think there will be a lot of goals though and one could be enough to separate the two teams and I think the value is backing Argentina to win this game by one goal. Dutching two correct scores of 1-0 and 2-1 to Argentina provides a slightly bigger payout than simply backing the South Americans to win by one goal, but I will go for the latter option in case we suddenly see the World Cup burst back into life as it did in terms of goals in the first Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Germany to Win @ 3.00 Coral (2 Units)
Argentina to Win by One Goal @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
It wouldn't surprise me if both World Cup Semi Final matches follow the pattern that has been set with the goals also drying up as teams look to make themselves hard to beat and so the creativity has been stifled now teams are focusing on shutting down the top players.
The Semi Final line up looks very strong in terms of what these international nations have done in the past with ten World Cup titles between the four nations left in Brazil. Add in the fact that they have also contributed to ten runners up and you know Brazil, Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands are soaked in a rich history.
Picking a winner is proving to be a difficult task for all with none of the teams really separating themselves from the pack and injuries/suspensions beginning to take their toll. Two tight Semi Finals look to be developing, although early goals could potentially open things up in both games even if it didn't quite work out that way in the Quarter Finals.
Brazil v Germany Pick: If you ignore all the whining being done by the Brazilians in the wake of losing Neymar for the tournament, some may consider this a 'reap what you sow' kind of situation. The referee allowed Brazil to kick James Rodriguez off the park in the Quarter Final win over Colombia so it seems kind of strange that so many feel so aggrieved that the Brazilian star player suffered an injury from the sole 'bad' tackle he suffered.
The last two Brazil games have produced the most fouls in the tournament and there is a real sense that the hosts are looking to 'kick their way to the title'. Without Neymar, Brazil have lost their biggest spark up front and the one player that can spark a moment of magic to win games and that is the reason they are no longer the favourites to win on home soil.
A lot of the goals have come from set pieces though, including both in the Quarter Final and the one against Chile in the Second Round, but Germany will feel they can deal with that threat effectively. If they can. Germany have every chance of reaching their first Final since 2002 and trying to win the World Cup for the first time since 1990.
Thiago Silva is another key loss for Brazil at an inopportune time, but Germany have persisted with a 'false nine' formation that might not exploit the uncertainty at the heart of the Brazil defence. Dante is an opponent that the Germans will know all about, while David Luiz is always susceptible to taking a big chance that can lead to a mistake so Joachim Loew has to find a way to exploit these areas of the pitch.
It does feel the game could be won or lost in the middle of the park where Luis Gustavo returns for Brazil and is the part of the pitch where both Brazil and Germany will feel they are better equipped. The winner of those battles will be able to control the game and force the quick breaks forward that can make the difference in the match and it is going to be tough to call.
In my opinion, Brazil have to show something they haven't through the tournament if they are to win this game and all without their two best players. Losing two of the four man spine of a team is tough to replace and Germany have enough experience to deal with the situation.
After coming close to the Final in 2006 and 2010, Germany can surprise the hosts and end their party right here by beating Brazil in an intriguing Semi Final.
Netherlands v Argentina Pick: Hands up if you saw that coming? Brazil were an absolute shambles in their 1-7 loss to Germany in the first World Cup Semi Final, but I would be surprised if we even got to see half that number of goals in this one.
Both the Netherlands and Argentina have a rich history in the World Cup including one meeting in the Final back in 1978, the sole time Argentina have gotten the better of the Dutch in a competitive game.
They played out a goalless draw, one that mutually benefited both nations, in the Group Stage in 2006 and I don't foresee a game with many goals in this one either. Robin Van Persie is a doubt for Holland, while Angel Di Maria has been ruled out for Argentina.
Better news for Argentina is the return of Sergio Aguero, but Holland also had some good news that Nigel de Jong is back in training and there are more similarities with both nations relying on their star player in forward positions- Lionel Messi for Argentina; Arjen Robben for Holland.
The teams will know whoever shackles the other team's top threat is likely to move into the Final on Sunday and that could lead to a tactical game with not much space to exploit. The one nagging doubt against that happening are the two defences that look vulnerable when players are running at them and both Messi and Robben are capable of doing that to great effect.
My feeling is that Argentina will find the three forwards they have in Aguero, Messi and Gonzalo Higuain and one of those will find that bit of magic to separate the sides. I don't think there will be a lot of goals though and one could be enough to separate the two teams and I think the value is backing Argentina to win this game by one goal. Dutching two correct scores of 1-0 and 2-1 to Argentina provides a slightly bigger payout than simply backing the South Americans to win by one goal, but I will go for the latter option in case we suddenly see the World Cup burst back into life as it did in terms of goals in the first Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Germany to Win @ 3.00 Coral (2 Units)
Argentina to Win by One Goal @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
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