World Cup Final 2018 Pick- France vs Croatia (July 15th)

I can't believe a month at the World Cup is about o come to a close on Sunday and I have to say the tournament has been about as good as any going back to Italia 90.

The England run was magnificent and united a country at a difficult time, while there have been a couple of truly memorable World Cup matches notably Portugal vs Spain and Brazil vs Belgium.

Hopefully there are two more quality matches to come with the unwanted Third/Fourth Play Off coming on Saturday before the Final between France and Croatia kicks off on Sunday.

And then it will be all eyes turned to Qatar in four and a half years time.

Belgium vs England

Some would consider this the most meaningless game in international football as the two losing Semi Finalists at the World Cup Finals meet for the right to say they finished third at the event. No player is going to be that interested about parading a bronze medal around, but there is an edge to Belgium versus England which could mean another high-scoring game.

High-scoring games is what the Third/Fourth Play Off has become known for as teams are perhaps using changed line ups and there isn't anything to lose so attacking football comes to the fore.

Both Belgium and England will feel they can get at what can be considered vulnerable defences and the attacking players will have their chances in this one.

The edge between the teams comes from the fact that so many of them will be familiar with one another with a huge amount of the Belgium players currently plying their trade in the English Premier League. While the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku were not featured in the Group Stage win over England, I imagine they will be urging Roberto Martinez to allow them to play this game.

Martinez himself has insisted Belgium are looking for their best ever World Cup Finals and they can do that by winning this game and surpassing the efforts made by the 1986 squad. It is also important to Martinez to give the team some momentum for the UEFA Nations League and moving through to Euro 2020 in two years time after an improved Belgium performance at this World Cup.

Gareth Southgate has suggested the same for England, but injuries are adding up and England have had less time to get over their disappointment of missing out on a World Cup Finals place. They have also had to play an additional thirty minutes before going out of the tournament and I think a fresher Belgium with arguably a stronger starting eleven will be too good for England.

This may not be the game that either team wanted to be playing this weekend but I think the players will be keen to get one over on club team-mates and that makes for a good looking game of football.


I have to give the edge to Belgium who have the stronger attacking approach and what looks like a defence with a few less mistakes in them than their England counterparts. Having an extra day to recover for this game will help and I think Belgium are worth backing on the Asian Handicap to earn the win.

France vs Croatia

This may not be a World Cup Final that a lot of people would have predicted at the start of the tournament but it could be argued the two best teams have made it through to contest the biggest prize in football.

Teams like Belgium may argue against that, and some have even suggested the Semi Final between France and Belgium was effectively the 'real Final', but France will need to be reminded of how things can go wrong if you overlook an opponent.

Just look back two years- France beat World Cup Champions Germany 2-0 in the Euro 2016 Semi Final and most expected them to get past Portugal and even more so when Cristiano Ronaldo had to leave very early with an injury. Even then things did not work out as they would have expected as they were beaten 0-1 in their home Final and I think Didier Deschamps will make sure the players are reminded of needing to be focused.

I do think the players would have learned from those mistakes though and I don't think France will make those again.

That isn't underestimating Croatia, but there has to be an accumulated fatigue building up to the levels which will make it tough for them to perform at their best. For forty-five minutes against England Croatia were clearly second best and it was only a couple of big missed opportunities that prevented England from taking complete control of that Semi Final.

France may be a cautious side by nature under Deschamps, but they have been looking pretty tight defensively and they have the midfield to disrupt the power of the Croatian side in the middle of the park. That is key for France and doing that should mean they can expose what has looked a vulnerable Croatia defence and I very much think France win this Final.

They are the fresher team who have had longer to prepare for the Final and the experience of Euro 2016 should really help the players focus for this one. France have enough quality in the final third to create chances and are a threat at set pieces, while the last couple of games have seen them defend very well.

It all adds up to a simple selection for me and that is backing France to win this game. If they score first, as they have in their three Knock Out ties and Croatia have conceded first in all three Knock Out ties, I think France will be very tough to peg back and have the counter attack to finish off what will be tired opponents.


All credit to Croatia for making the Final, but all the additional football needed will have added up physically and emotionally and I will back France to win a second World Cup title twenty years after the first.

MY PICKS: Belgium - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
France @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Semi Final Final: 1-1, + 0.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 5% Yield)
Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 2.70 Units (8 Units, + 33.75% Yield)
Last 16 Final: 2-6, - 7.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Three Final: 8-8, + 3.53 Units (27.50 Units Staked, + 12.84% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Two Final: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)


Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)

World Cup 2014 Final Pick- Germany v Argentina (July 13th)

This has been one of the best World Cup Finals that I have ever enjoyed and easily the best edition of the tournament since 1998 in my opinion.

Through the last four weeks we have seen some memorable team performances including the reigning World Champions Spain being dismantled by the Netherlands, but the German crushing of Brazil in the Semi Final will be one of those games that is talked about forever.

There is little doubt in my mind that it was the most surreal game that I have ever witnessed- Brazil just don't lose games 1-7, let alone in World Cup Semi Finals and even rarer that it was a Semi Final played at home. It was as disgraceful a performance I have seen from a defence that seemingly parted like the Red Sea every time Germany came forward.


The second Semi Final was a complete contrast to the first with a nervous game played by both Argentina and the Netherlands, one that produced little in goalmouth action until the penalty shoot out. This time Louis Van Gaal couldn't bring on a substitute goalkeeper and it was Argentina that progressed to a Final for the first time in twenty-four years and an opportunity to win the greatest prize in the home of their biggest rivals.

Hopefully the Final will be a memorable one, although the last time these teams met at this stage in the 1990 World Cup Final, it was anything but a great game. Of course that was the second consecutive World Cup Final between West Germany and Argentina with one win apiece coming into the 2014 edition.


Germany v Argentina Pick: The first thing I noticed with the prices for the World Cup Final was the fact that the Germans are considered healthy favourites to win the game within ninety minutes. That surprised me considering some of the performances Germany have had in the tournament, but the 7-1 win over Brazil in the Semi Final has clearly impressed the layers to the point that Germany are considered a strong favourite.

Argentina have also failed to score in two of their last three games (within ninety minutes) and it would be fair to say that they have yet to really spark in the tournament. Lionel Messi scored his four goals in the Group Stage, but has not looked at his best in the knock out stage, while the likes of Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria may not be at full health.

On the other hand, an injury forced Joachim Loew's hands in moving Philip Lahm into a more comfortable full back slot and that has seen improved performances from Germany. The 'false nine' position has been removed with Miroslav Klose a legitimate forward and that has helped Germany look more threatening going forward with the likes of Thomas Moeller and Mesut Ozil attacking from deep.

It will be up to the likes of Javier Mascherano to shut down the German attack before it gets to the defence, but Argentina have been pretty solid defensively through the last four weeks. Not many goals have been conceded, but Germany have enough about their attacks to cause problems and I haven't forgotten the problems that both Nigeria and Iran caused Argentina in the Group.

I would be expecting Germany to be able to do the same, although nerves are going to play a big factor in this Final- both teams have so much to lose if they fail to pick up the title and that could make both managers set up their teams to counter what the other does rather than a proactive approach to win the game.

If Argentina score first, they have been disciplined enough to prevent Germany getting back into the game... On the other hand, if Germany go in front, they could pick off the South Americans as they push forward to get back into the game.

Of the two teams, I have been more impressed with Germany over the course of the last four weeks and they do look a team that is ready to shake off the 'nearly men' tag and win a first major international tournament since 1996. Germany have reached the Final in 2002, the Semi Finals in 2006 and 2010 in the World Cup, while also being Semi Finalists in 2012 and Finalists in 2008 at the European Championships and those experiences may set up this team which is reaching their peak to go an extra step.

Argentina may have the best player on the park, but Germany play as a great unit and there are match winners littered in their squad so I will back the side to become the first European team to win in the Americas.

MY PICK: Germany to Win @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)