It wasn't a great day yesterday as I finished where I had started thanks to a 2-2 day with the 4 picks I made. To be honest, I am pretty happy I got out with that record considering the first two picks went down without much of a fight.
I was also happy and sad at the same time when I watched the David Nalbandian-Andy Murray match in the evening- I was happy to see Nalbandian playing as well as he did after he was crushed in the first set, but sad as he didn't have the luck on his side as Murray needed a net cord to break serve and then saved two break points by clipping lines.
Still, it shows Nalbandian is in good enough form to hopefully cause some problems at the French Open, while I think he may just have moved into one of the seeded positions for that tournament with his win in the First Round here.
My picks for Wednesday follow:
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Vania King: Anyone who read my outright preview of the event knows I believe that Angelique Kerber could have a big week here and I would expect her to deal with Vania King in the form she has been in.
Neither one of the players has a great pedigree on the clay courts in their careers, but Kerber has begun to show she is more than capable on the surface this season and it has taken some of the best players on the Tour to stop here in the tournaments so far.
Kerber was not at her best in the First Round but coming through that match should give her confidence while she has won the only previous meeting between these players on a clay court a couple of years ago.
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games v Sara Errani: I can only think that Sam Stosur has some sort of niggling injury that she is being priced so high to beat Sara Errani, especially considering she has won all 4 previous meetings between the players, although all of those have been on the hard courts.
Stosur is a former French Open Finalist so she has plenty of pedigree on the clay courts and she has been a Quarter Finalist in Madrid last week and in Stuttgart on the surface.
Errani is playing at home and she did win tournamenta in Budapest, Acapulco and Barcelona this season on the clay courts, but she won just 1 game in a loss to Agnieska Radwanska last week and she was heavily beaten by Victoria Azarenka here last season.
I think the Australian will be too strong on merit, but keep an eye out for injury news as this price looks far too nice.
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Anabel Medina Garrigues: I am also taking the former World Number 1 today as I think her game plan can frustrate Anabel Medina Garrigues into making the mistakes that should lead to a straight forward win for Caroline Wozniacki.
Wozniacki has had some tough draws in the clay court season so it is no surprise she hasn't been seen at the latter end of tournaments, but this is a decent player for her to play as she will be allowed to get into her rhythm and Medina Garrigues is unlikely to hit through her with consistency.
The Spaniard has also lost heavily in matches she has lost recently, while a 6-1, 6-2 loss to Simona Halep is concerning as she is someone that has a similar defensive abilities as Wozniacki.
The Dane has also won the last two matches between the players and would have covered this spread in those wins.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Roger Federer dealt with the conditions in Madrid brilliantly to win the event last week and move into the top 2 in the World Rankings and I expect he is going to be too strong for Carlos Berlocq who has had injury worries of late.
Federer should be able to find a couple of breaks in one of the sets that should take him to the cover in the match and he should move through comfortably in this one as long as he doesn't make too many changes to his game to 'test' himself.
Berlocq has had a solid season, but he can make a lot of errors and that will be exposed by Federer here in my opinion.
Gilles Simon - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: This is a bit of a risky pick, but I think Gilles Simon is playing well enough at the moment to cause Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to give up enough service breaks and fail to stay within the cover in this one.
Simon beat Garcia-Lopez in Madrid last week and I think his win in Budapest will give him confidence that he can beat the Spaniard who is ranked at number 85 in the World.
I expect Simon will be able to frustrate Garcia-Lopez with his ability to force an opponent to play one more ball and that should give him the chance to break serve enough times to lead to a comfortable enough straight sets win.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Andrea Seppi: My biggest concern here is that John Isner looked so unmotivated in his win over Philip Kohlschreiber until deep into the match and how he deals with the Italian crowd that will be behind their compatriot Andreas Seppi is the key to the who match.
Most people would think the likes of Isner would hate the slower surfaces, but he has said it gives him time on the ball while not really affecting his serve and you have to believe a man that pushed Rafael Nadal to 5 sets at the French Open last year and also beat Roger Federer on the surface in a Davis Cup tie in Switzerland earlier this year.
Seppi is a solid player and did win in Belgrade, but his serve is very vulnerable and I think he will give Isner at least a couple of opportunities per set to break his serve and that will make it tough for him to come back.
Isner did need 5 sets to beat Seppi at the Australian Open in 2010, but he is an improved player since then and I think he can win this match with a break in each set.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.24 Units (16 Units Staked)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Wednesday, 16 May 2012
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
Tennis Picks May 15th (Rome)
It was a good start to the week for the picks I made, but the weather was apparently making life very difficult for the players, especially the wind being as strong as it was.
I have kept an eye on how it is supposed to be for the rest of the week, and it does seem that tomorrow is the day when the wind will be at its weakest. It is definitely something to keep a tab on when making your picks as the tournament develops.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This looks like one of the best matches of the Second Round and I am going to favour the higher ranked Spaniard to continue in the draw.
David Ferrer used to have an inferiority complex when playing some of his compatriots early in his career, believing he was nothing near to as talented as some of the players he grew up with. However, that seems to have gone now and he has all the tool to frustrate Fernando Verdasco and extract enough errors to cover this spread.
Ferrer will be able to use his speed around the court to pull up a solid defence and he will force Verdasco to have to play the extra shot and that is where he is likely to make hay.
Ferrer has won the last 3 meetings between the players, two of those coming this year, and he has not lost more than 4 games in any of those matches. He destroyed Verdasco 1 and 2 in the Final at Acapulco earlier this season and, while it won't be that easy, I think he has enough to cover the spread on offer.
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Marcel Granollers: This is more a pick against Marcel Granollers than it is picking Feliciano Lopez to win on a clay court, but the lower ranked Spaniard has really been struggling for wins and confidence has to be a little shot.
Granollers has not won back to back matches on the main tour so far this season, and defeats to the likes of Frederico Gil and Julien Benneteau on the clay courts is not exactly great form.
Feliciano Lopez is one of the few Spanish players that actually has a lot more success OFF the clay courts, but he has shown some decent form on the surface this season and I think he will be able to take advantage of the errors that Granollers is likely to produce.
My biggest concern is that Lopez is not a great returner of serve, but an opponent lacking in confidence could be tailor made for him.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is not a great clay court player as I have mentioned once or twice in the last couple of weeks, but he should be far too strong for Victor Troicki who is a player completely out of form.
Troicki has more losses than wins this season and he has only won back to back matches on the tour on two occasions so far in 2012. The Serb is in danger of falling out of the World Top 32 at the moment, but he continues to suffer surprising defeats while also showing little fight in matches where he falls behind.
Tsonga can at least point to a couple of decent wins on the clay courts already this season over the likes of Fernando Verdasco and Philip Kohlschreiber, and I think he has enough confidence in his locker to see off Troicki.
Interestingly, Troicki has a 3-1 head to head record against Tsonga in the past, although the Frenchman's sole win came here in Rome a couple of seasons ago for the loss of just 5 games.
Sam Querrey v Jarkko Nieminen: I am going to take the American to come through this First Round match as he looks a little more battle hardened at the moment after qualifying for the main draw with good wins over Simone Bolelli and Mikhail Kukushkin.
Jarkko Nieminen has not played for around two weeks in a competitive match, and he has not exactly been in great form even when he was on the court. His last match was a defeat to Benoit Paire and he may just get caught here by Querrey who should be full of confidence having won 7 matches in a row including a Challenger tournament back in the United States.
The clay courts are not usually the favourite surface of the big serving American players, but I just think he can get through this one as the underdog and is worth taking a chance on.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.24 Units (8 Units Staked)
I have kept an eye on how it is supposed to be for the rest of the week, and it does seem that tomorrow is the day when the wind will be at its weakest. It is definitely something to keep a tab on when making your picks as the tournament develops.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This looks like one of the best matches of the Second Round and I am going to favour the higher ranked Spaniard to continue in the draw.
David Ferrer used to have an inferiority complex when playing some of his compatriots early in his career, believing he was nothing near to as talented as some of the players he grew up with. However, that seems to have gone now and he has all the tool to frustrate Fernando Verdasco and extract enough errors to cover this spread.
Ferrer will be able to use his speed around the court to pull up a solid defence and he will force Verdasco to have to play the extra shot and that is where he is likely to make hay.
Ferrer has won the last 3 meetings between the players, two of those coming this year, and he has not lost more than 4 games in any of those matches. He destroyed Verdasco 1 and 2 in the Final at Acapulco earlier this season and, while it won't be that easy, I think he has enough to cover the spread on offer.
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Marcel Granollers: This is more a pick against Marcel Granollers than it is picking Feliciano Lopez to win on a clay court, but the lower ranked Spaniard has really been struggling for wins and confidence has to be a little shot.
Granollers has not won back to back matches on the main tour so far this season, and defeats to the likes of Frederico Gil and Julien Benneteau on the clay courts is not exactly great form.
Feliciano Lopez is one of the few Spanish players that actually has a lot more success OFF the clay courts, but he has shown some decent form on the surface this season and I think he will be able to take advantage of the errors that Granollers is likely to produce.
My biggest concern is that Lopez is not a great returner of serve, but an opponent lacking in confidence could be tailor made for him.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is not a great clay court player as I have mentioned once or twice in the last couple of weeks, but he should be far too strong for Victor Troicki who is a player completely out of form.
Troicki has more losses than wins this season and he has only won back to back matches on the tour on two occasions so far in 2012. The Serb is in danger of falling out of the World Top 32 at the moment, but he continues to suffer surprising defeats while also showing little fight in matches where he falls behind.
Tsonga can at least point to a couple of decent wins on the clay courts already this season over the likes of Fernando Verdasco and Philip Kohlschreiber, and I think he has enough confidence in his locker to see off Troicki.
Interestingly, Troicki has a 3-1 head to head record against Tsonga in the past, although the Frenchman's sole win came here in Rome a couple of seasons ago for the loss of just 5 games.
Sam Querrey v Jarkko Nieminen: I am going to take the American to come through this First Round match as he looks a little more battle hardened at the moment after qualifying for the main draw with good wins over Simone Bolelli and Mikhail Kukushkin.
Jarkko Nieminen has not played for around two weeks in a competitive match, and he has not exactly been in great form even when he was on the court. His last match was a defeat to Benoit Paire and he may just get caught here by Querrey who should be full of confidence having won 7 matches in a row including a Challenger tournament back in the United States.
The clay courts are not usually the favourite surface of the big serving American players, but I just think he can get through this one as the underdog and is worth taking a chance on.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.24 Units (8 Units Staked)
Monday, 14 May 2012
English Football Play Off Second Leg Picks
With the football season just about going through its final moments for the 2011-12 season, I figured I would keep this one thread for the English Play Offs that are taking place in the lower Leagues for the rest of the week.
Either tomorrow or Wednesday, I will begin working on my 'thoughts of the season' post and will give you my take on how each Premier League team performed as well as handing out some awards for significant achievements like 'Manager of the Year', 'Team of the Year' and so on.
Later in the week, I will break down the Champions League Final and give my 'keys to the game', while also writing up a full preview of the game.
Sheffield United v Stevenage Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14253-Sheffield-United-v-Stevenage.htm)
Southend v Crewe Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14278-Southend-v-Crewe.htm)
Torquay United v Cheltenham Preview (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14286-Torquay-United-v-Cheltenham.htm)
MY PICKS: Sheffield United-Stevenage Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Crewe + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Torquay United-Cheltenham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Either tomorrow or Wednesday, I will begin working on my 'thoughts of the season' post and will give you my take on how each Premier League team performed as well as handing out some awards for significant achievements like 'Manager of the Year', 'Team of the Year' and so on.
Later in the week, I will break down the Champions League Final and give my 'keys to the game', while also writing up a full preview of the game.
Sheffield United v Stevenage Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14253-Sheffield-United-v-Stevenage.htm)
Southend v Crewe Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14278-Southend-v-Crewe.htm)
Torquay United v Cheltenham Preview (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14286-Torquay-United-v-Cheltenham.htm)
MY PICKS: Sheffield United-Stevenage Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Crewe + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Torquay United-Cheltenham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tennis Picks May 14th (Rome)
The layers have taken their time putting up markets for the first real days play at the Rome event so this post has had to come out later than planned. However, the matches I have short-listed still have some time before they begin so plenty of time to follow if you like them as much as I do.
David Nalbandian - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos: I like the veteran to get the better of his younger opponent today as I think his returning game will cause the Spaniard plenty of problems.
David Nalbandian had a tough draw in Madrid last week, but he is still capable on his day to cause problems for opponents in tournaments. However, I do have a slight concern that he still has some inconsistent performances these days and that could spell trouble against someone who can serve decently as Albert Ramos can.
Ramos' best performances have come on the clay courts throughout his career, but he has had some tough losses lately and I think Nalbandian will still be too strong for him.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: I know Robin Haase has the service prowess to win his games his easily, but I think the slower surface can expose the inconsistencies in his ground game and that is an area that Stanislas Wawrinka can expose.
Wawrinka is a tough clay court player and one that has enjoyed playing in Rome in the past. It has taken the best players in the World to stop his runs in recent weeks and he is playing an opponent that can mentally check out of matches when he falls behind.
The Swiss player has also won all 4 matches against Haase in the past, including a 6-1, 6-4 win in Estoril a couple of weeks ago.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Julia Goerges has been surprisingly poor in recent weeks on the clay courts just a year after having so much success on the slower surfaces, but I think she will be a little too strong for Aleksandra Wozniak.
Wozniak has recently been playing at a lower level than the likes of Goerges and I think this will be a tough test for her, but it will all depend on which Goerges turns up.
If the shot-making player arrives, I think she wins fairly comfortably, but the only concern is whether the unforced error machine is in operation which will make this far closer than it should be.
Goerges has beaten Wozniak comfortably in the past on two occasions so I will look for her to complete a third win today.
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: These two players are very evenly matched so I am a little surprised that Svetlana Kuznetsova has been given as many games in the handicap as she has.
Kuznetsova was forced to retire with a thigh injury around three weeks ago, but she played in Madrid last week and really pushed Victoria Azarenka in what was ultimately a losing effort. The Russian player has a strong pedigree on the clay courts in the past and there is every chance she can win this match outright, but I expect her to at least push Ana Ivanovic.
Ivanovic remains an enigma despite her hook up with Nigel Sears and she continues to put in a lot of inconsistent performance. At her best, Ivanovic is a really tough player to beat and she can take matches away from opponents, but anything less than that and she is capable of throwing in a stinker.
Kuznetsova has won 2 of the last 3 meetings between the players including a three set win on a clay court in the Fed Cup around a month ago. If this one goes to three sets, I would expect Kuznetsova will be in a strong position to at least get the cover even in a losing effort.
MY PICKS: David Nalbandian - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacles (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 3.5 games @ 1.95 Panbet (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos: I like the veteran to get the better of his younger opponent today as I think his returning game will cause the Spaniard plenty of problems.
David Nalbandian had a tough draw in Madrid last week, but he is still capable on his day to cause problems for opponents in tournaments. However, I do have a slight concern that he still has some inconsistent performances these days and that could spell trouble against someone who can serve decently as Albert Ramos can.
Ramos' best performances have come on the clay courts throughout his career, but he has had some tough losses lately and I think Nalbandian will still be too strong for him.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: I know Robin Haase has the service prowess to win his games his easily, but I think the slower surface can expose the inconsistencies in his ground game and that is an area that Stanislas Wawrinka can expose.
Wawrinka is a tough clay court player and one that has enjoyed playing in Rome in the past. It has taken the best players in the World to stop his runs in recent weeks and he is playing an opponent that can mentally check out of matches when he falls behind.
The Swiss player has also won all 4 matches against Haase in the past, including a 6-1, 6-4 win in Estoril a couple of weeks ago.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Aleksandra Wozniak: Julia Goerges has been surprisingly poor in recent weeks on the clay courts just a year after having so much success on the slower surfaces, but I think she will be a little too strong for Aleksandra Wozniak.
Wozniak has recently been playing at a lower level than the likes of Goerges and I think this will be a tough test for her, but it will all depend on which Goerges turns up.
If the shot-making player arrives, I think she wins fairly comfortably, but the only concern is whether the unforced error machine is in operation which will make this far closer than it should be.
Goerges has beaten Wozniak comfortably in the past on two occasions so I will look for her to complete a third win today.
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: These two players are very evenly matched so I am a little surprised that Svetlana Kuznetsova has been given as many games in the handicap as she has.
Kuznetsova was forced to retire with a thigh injury around three weeks ago, but she played in Madrid last week and really pushed Victoria Azarenka in what was ultimately a losing effort. The Russian player has a strong pedigree on the clay courts in the past and there is every chance she can win this match outright, but I expect her to at least push Ana Ivanovic.
Ivanovic remains an enigma despite her hook up with Nigel Sears and she continues to put in a lot of inconsistent performance. At her best, Ivanovic is a really tough player to beat and she can take matches away from opponents, but anything less than that and she is capable of throwing in a stinker.
Kuznetsova has won 2 of the last 3 meetings between the players including a three set win on a clay court in the Fed Cup around a month ago. If this one goes to three sets, I would expect Kuznetsova will be in a strong position to at least get the cover even in a losing effort.
MY PICKS: David Nalbandian - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacles (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 3.5 games @ 1.95 Panbet (2 Units)
Sunday, 13 May 2012
Tennis Outright Picks May 13-20 (Rome)
I haven't really made any outright picks in the tennis over the last month or so, sticking mainly to the daily picks, as I haven't really found much value that has had me interested in getting involved. The uncertainty of Madrid made that a no go area, while Monte Carlo and Barcelona were top heavy events with little or no value in the market (stole that last line from Fergie at Manchester United).
My one issue with this Masters event is why do they feel the need to start it on the same day as the Finals in Madrid? Surely they should keep the Sunday as the last day of qualifying and leave the First Round matches for Monday?
Anyway, that hasn't had much of an effect on the market considering the favourites are all in action later in the week.
Men's Tournament
Top Half
This is the quarter reserved for the Number 1 seed, in this case Novak Djokovic, as the Serb looks to recover from a pretty torrid week in Madrid when he was more worried about making a case for the poorness of the courts rather than actually concentrating on winning the event. He has made it clear that he is glad to be getting back to the traditional red clay courts and is feeling confident in his chances of doing well here in Rome as well as at the French Open which begins in two weeks time.
I don't think Djokovic will be too concerned with a draw that seems him face either Bernard Tomic or Santiago Giraldo in the Second Round and a likely Third Round meeting with Juan Monaco.
The biggest obstacle will surely come in the Quarter Final where he look set to meet Juan Martin Del Potro.
Del Potro continued his fine form in the 2012 season with a Semi Final berth in Madrid last week as well as winning in Estoril the week before and he does look the biggest threat to players in the top half of the draw.
The Argentine should be too good for Michael Llodra and Mikhail Youzhny in the first couple of rounds here before he is likely to meet Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. However, this is not the Frenchman's favourite surface and I would expect Del Potro to win 8/10 times they played on the slower surfaces.
I would expect Djokovic to be too strong in this position and be able to see off the challenge of Del Potro at this moment- I am still not convinced that Del Potro has the belief that he can beat one of the top three players in the World and until I am, I would favour any of those players to beat him.
With Djokovic likely to be one of the Semi Finalists, it will be Roger Federer who tries to make his seeding count to meet him there.
Federer won the event in Madrid as he handled the conditions very well throughout the week, coming through some hairy moments against Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych to pick up the title. However, the conditions in Madrid have always been favourable to Federer as the extra speed in the court really tallies well with what he wants to do on a clay court.
In saying that, Federer is still one of the best players in the World on the surface and I see almost no problems for him to get through to the Quarter Final here. He may have gone deep in the Madrid tournament, but his stamina has never been in question and I don't see any of his potential opponents being too much trouble for him.
Who he faces in the Quarter Final is a little less clear as John Isner, Philip Kohlschreiber, Janko Tipsarevic and Stanislas Wawrinka are all part of the eight players in the running for that right. I have a sneaky suspicion that Wawrinka could be the man to get through as the Swiss Number 2 has really been playing solid tennis on the clay courts recently, and it has taken the likes of Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Rafael Nadal to stop his progress.
Wawrinka is also a former Quarter Finalist and Runner Up at this event, so he could be the main threat to Federer, although I still favour the Swiss Number 1 to have the measure of him.
The Semi Final between Federer and Djokovic will be very tough to call- even though Djokovic has won 5 of their last 6 matches, I think Federer has the absolute belief that he can beat this player and I think their matches are always very close and decided by one or two points in a lot of the cases in question.
Federer also holds the edge on the clay courts, leading 3-1 in the head to head between the players including a Semi Final at Roland Garros last season, but I could only make a real prediction on the match when and if it comes to fruition.
Bottom Half
The main person to focus on in the bottom half of the draw, and in every clay court tournament he enters, is Rafael Nadal- Nadal has a big point to prove after losing his 22 match unbeaten run on the clay courts last week in Madrid when he clearly was not in sync with the court from before the tournament started.
It looked the draw had not been kind to him as Milos Raonic was a potential first match for him here, but Nadal saw the Canadian knocked out on Saturday and instead will meet Florian Mayer, a player he should be beating every time on this surface (and pretty much any other surface).
It is very unlikely that Nadal will encounter any real trouble until the Quarter Final when he will face either Nicolas Almagro, Marin Cilic or Tomas Berdych in all likelihood.
Out of those three players, I expect Nadal is probably expecting a meeting with Tomas Berdych who is a definite threat on the clay courts and has the easiest path to the Quarter Final. Almagro and Cilic are actually meeting in the First Round and it does look tough to separate them, and the winner could be a touch vulnerable as the tournament develops if it is as close a match as it looks it may be.
Whatever happens, I would think Nadal is going to be so motivated to prove he is still the man to beat on the red clay courts that he should get through to the Semi Final.
The other quarter of this half of the draw is loaded with talent as the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Alexandr Dolgopolov, David Nalbandian, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Andy Murray and David Ferrer all lie.
I do like Ferrer to get through to the Semi Final stage, but it is a tough draw in front of him, beginning with the winner of the Verdasco-Dolgopolov clash. However it is a very tough section with so many dangerous players involved and I think that could make life that much easier for Nadal.
Winner
The way the draw has panned out, I can't really look beyond picking Rafael Nadal to go and reclaim is Rome crown after losing to Novak Djokovic here last season. He has looked back to his best on the surface and has been fortunate with the draw while the rest of his rivals have some tough looking obstacles to overcome to reach the Final.
Stan James have been kind enough to offer Nadal at evens to win the event and I will be using a few units on him to do so with the potential of laying it off towards the end of the tournament.
Women's Event
Top Half
This is the section of the draw that will be headed up by Victoria Azarenka, who will be looking to get back on the horse after suffering a drubbing at the hands of Serena Williams in the Final in Madrid on Sunday. That loss aside, Azarenka continues to set the benchmark on the WTA Tour in 2012 and there are not too many players I would back to beat her in the form she has displayed for much of the season.
In saying that, I don't think Azarenka has too many issues getting through to the Semi Final in Rome with her biggest challenge likely to come from Na Li in the Quarter Final. The problem for Li is that she can blow very hot and cold and that leaves her vulnerable to a surprise loss before that Round.
I would also continue to favour Azarenka against her as we saw that Li does not have the consistency to play at the high level she needs for more than a set, and that means she is unlikely to knock off the World Number 1 at this moment.
Azarenka's biggest challenge is likely to come out of the other quarter in this half of the draw, a quarter that contains her conqueror from last week- Serena Williams.
Williams has shown she is in great form with her win in Madrid, her second on the clay courts already this season following Charleston, and her confidence is high. However, she could face an awkward Third Round clash with former World Number 1, Caroline Wozniacki.
The two players played out a three set match last week in Madrid and Wozniacki actually recorded her first win over Williams in Miami a couple of months ago so this is no easy task. The match also means I would look to avoid Serena as the favourite this week as it is a really tough one to call.
Even if Serena does get through that one, she could face the ultra-consistent Agnieska Radwanska in the Quarter Final and all that makes me feel there is a chance that Williams is out before the Semi Final.
If Serena does exit before the Semi Final, I think Victoria Azarenka will be the person that takes the most advantage and progresses through to the Final.
Bottom Half
This section of the draw is headed up by the World Number 2, Maria Sharapova, and she is definitely one of the players you would look to keep on your side as much as possible. The Russian has been consistent in getting to Finals this season, but also won her first title in Stuttgart on the clay a couple of weeks ago. After struggling on this surface for so long, Sharapova looks to have got to grips with it and is no a real threat on the slower courts.
Sharapova will have to deal with a potentially tough Third Round clash with Ana Ivanovic, and she is then seeded to meet Sam Stosur and either of those could be tough matches to overcome. However, Sharapova has a mental edge over both of those players and that is what should see her through to the Semi Final in this tournament at the very least.
If Sharapova can get to that stage, she would likely be the favourite against any of the players she could meet as the other quarter is full of women that have been out of form. The top two seeded players in the section are Marion Bartoli and Petra Kvitova, but neither can be considered trustworthy to come through the section.
One player that may take advantage is the ever improving Angelique Kerber- the German recently won a tournament in Copenhagen, on the indoor hard courts, while has reached the Quarter Final in Stuttgart and the Third Round in Madrid last week on the clay courts.
My biggest issue with Kerber is the fact she has not really had a break out week on the clay courts in her career, but she is definitely someone I would watch with interest this week.
With the uncertainty in the third quarter of the draw, I think Maria Sharapova looks worth backing to at least get to the Final from this section, although you may have a couple of heart in mouth moments before she does reach that stage with tough matches to overcome.
Winner
The Women's event looks an open one this week, but I am going to have an each-way interest in both Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova to get to the Final at the very least with the draws they have been given. Sharapova is definitely the player with the tougher draw, while I think Azarenka could be fresh for a Semi Final with whichever player comes through the second quarter and that could give her the edge.
Outside of Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, I think Azarenka feels confident she can beat anyone on the Tour so she looks decent value at 5.00 to win the event, while Sharapova is also a nice looking 5.50.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 2.00 Stan James (4 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)
Maria Sharapova @ 5.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)
My one issue with this Masters event is why do they feel the need to start it on the same day as the Finals in Madrid? Surely they should keep the Sunday as the last day of qualifying and leave the First Round matches for Monday?
Anyway, that hasn't had much of an effect on the market considering the favourites are all in action later in the week.
Men's Tournament
Top Half
This is the quarter reserved for the Number 1 seed, in this case Novak Djokovic, as the Serb looks to recover from a pretty torrid week in Madrid when he was more worried about making a case for the poorness of the courts rather than actually concentrating on winning the event. He has made it clear that he is glad to be getting back to the traditional red clay courts and is feeling confident in his chances of doing well here in Rome as well as at the French Open which begins in two weeks time.
I don't think Djokovic will be too concerned with a draw that seems him face either Bernard Tomic or Santiago Giraldo in the Second Round and a likely Third Round meeting with Juan Monaco.
The biggest obstacle will surely come in the Quarter Final where he look set to meet Juan Martin Del Potro.
Del Potro continued his fine form in the 2012 season with a Semi Final berth in Madrid last week as well as winning in Estoril the week before and he does look the biggest threat to players in the top half of the draw.
The Argentine should be too good for Michael Llodra and Mikhail Youzhny in the first couple of rounds here before he is likely to meet Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. However, this is not the Frenchman's favourite surface and I would expect Del Potro to win 8/10 times they played on the slower surfaces.
I would expect Djokovic to be too strong in this position and be able to see off the challenge of Del Potro at this moment- I am still not convinced that Del Potro has the belief that he can beat one of the top three players in the World and until I am, I would favour any of those players to beat him.
With Djokovic likely to be one of the Semi Finalists, it will be Roger Federer who tries to make his seeding count to meet him there.
Federer won the event in Madrid as he handled the conditions very well throughout the week, coming through some hairy moments against Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych to pick up the title. However, the conditions in Madrid have always been favourable to Federer as the extra speed in the court really tallies well with what he wants to do on a clay court.
In saying that, Federer is still one of the best players in the World on the surface and I see almost no problems for him to get through to the Quarter Final here. He may have gone deep in the Madrid tournament, but his stamina has never been in question and I don't see any of his potential opponents being too much trouble for him.
Who he faces in the Quarter Final is a little less clear as John Isner, Philip Kohlschreiber, Janko Tipsarevic and Stanislas Wawrinka are all part of the eight players in the running for that right. I have a sneaky suspicion that Wawrinka could be the man to get through as the Swiss Number 2 has really been playing solid tennis on the clay courts recently, and it has taken the likes of Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Rafael Nadal to stop his progress.
Wawrinka is also a former Quarter Finalist and Runner Up at this event, so he could be the main threat to Federer, although I still favour the Swiss Number 1 to have the measure of him.
The Semi Final between Federer and Djokovic will be very tough to call- even though Djokovic has won 5 of their last 6 matches, I think Federer has the absolute belief that he can beat this player and I think their matches are always very close and decided by one or two points in a lot of the cases in question.
Federer also holds the edge on the clay courts, leading 3-1 in the head to head between the players including a Semi Final at Roland Garros last season, but I could only make a real prediction on the match when and if it comes to fruition.
Bottom Half
The main person to focus on in the bottom half of the draw, and in every clay court tournament he enters, is Rafael Nadal- Nadal has a big point to prove after losing his 22 match unbeaten run on the clay courts last week in Madrid when he clearly was not in sync with the court from before the tournament started.
It looked the draw had not been kind to him as Milos Raonic was a potential first match for him here, but Nadal saw the Canadian knocked out on Saturday and instead will meet Florian Mayer, a player he should be beating every time on this surface (and pretty much any other surface).
It is very unlikely that Nadal will encounter any real trouble until the Quarter Final when he will face either Nicolas Almagro, Marin Cilic or Tomas Berdych in all likelihood.
Out of those three players, I expect Nadal is probably expecting a meeting with Tomas Berdych who is a definite threat on the clay courts and has the easiest path to the Quarter Final. Almagro and Cilic are actually meeting in the First Round and it does look tough to separate them, and the winner could be a touch vulnerable as the tournament develops if it is as close a match as it looks it may be.
Whatever happens, I would think Nadal is going to be so motivated to prove he is still the man to beat on the red clay courts that he should get through to the Semi Final.
The other quarter of this half of the draw is loaded with talent as the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Alexandr Dolgopolov, David Nalbandian, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Andy Murray and David Ferrer all lie.
I do like Ferrer to get through to the Semi Final stage, but it is a tough draw in front of him, beginning with the winner of the Verdasco-Dolgopolov clash. However it is a very tough section with so many dangerous players involved and I think that could make life that much easier for Nadal.
Winner
The way the draw has panned out, I can't really look beyond picking Rafael Nadal to go and reclaim is Rome crown after losing to Novak Djokovic here last season. He has looked back to his best on the surface and has been fortunate with the draw while the rest of his rivals have some tough looking obstacles to overcome to reach the Final.
Stan James have been kind enough to offer Nadal at evens to win the event and I will be using a few units on him to do so with the potential of laying it off towards the end of the tournament.
Women's Event
Top Half
This is the section of the draw that will be headed up by Victoria Azarenka, who will be looking to get back on the horse after suffering a drubbing at the hands of Serena Williams in the Final in Madrid on Sunday. That loss aside, Azarenka continues to set the benchmark on the WTA Tour in 2012 and there are not too many players I would back to beat her in the form she has displayed for much of the season.
In saying that, I don't think Azarenka has too many issues getting through to the Semi Final in Rome with her biggest challenge likely to come from Na Li in the Quarter Final. The problem for Li is that she can blow very hot and cold and that leaves her vulnerable to a surprise loss before that Round.
I would also continue to favour Azarenka against her as we saw that Li does not have the consistency to play at the high level she needs for more than a set, and that means she is unlikely to knock off the World Number 1 at this moment.
Azarenka's biggest challenge is likely to come out of the other quarter in this half of the draw, a quarter that contains her conqueror from last week- Serena Williams.
Williams has shown she is in great form with her win in Madrid, her second on the clay courts already this season following Charleston, and her confidence is high. However, she could face an awkward Third Round clash with former World Number 1, Caroline Wozniacki.
The two players played out a three set match last week in Madrid and Wozniacki actually recorded her first win over Williams in Miami a couple of months ago so this is no easy task. The match also means I would look to avoid Serena as the favourite this week as it is a really tough one to call.
Even if Serena does get through that one, she could face the ultra-consistent Agnieska Radwanska in the Quarter Final and all that makes me feel there is a chance that Williams is out before the Semi Final.
If Serena does exit before the Semi Final, I think Victoria Azarenka will be the person that takes the most advantage and progresses through to the Final.
Bottom Half
This section of the draw is headed up by the World Number 2, Maria Sharapova, and she is definitely one of the players you would look to keep on your side as much as possible. The Russian has been consistent in getting to Finals this season, but also won her first title in Stuttgart on the clay a couple of weeks ago. After struggling on this surface for so long, Sharapova looks to have got to grips with it and is no a real threat on the slower courts.
Sharapova will have to deal with a potentially tough Third Round clash with Ana Ivanovic, and she is then seeded to meet Sam Stosur and either of those could be tough matches to overcome. However, Sharapova has a mental edge over both of those players and that is what should see her through to the Semi Final in this tournament at the very least.
If Sharapova can get to that stage, she would likely be the favourite against any of the players she could meet as the other quarter is full of women that have been out of form. The top two seeded players in the section are Marion Bartoli and Petra Kvitova, but neither can be considered trustworthy to come through the section.
One player that may take advantage is the ever improving Angelique Kerber- the German recently won a tournament in Copenhagen, on the indoor hard courts, while has reached the Quarter Final in Stuttgart and the Third Round in Madrid last week on the clay courts.
My biggest issue with Kerber is the fact she has not really had a break out week on the clay courts in her career, but she is definitely someone I would watch with interest this week.
With the uncertainty in the third quarter of the draw, I think Maria Sharapova looks worth backing to at least get to the Final from this section, although you may have a couple of heart in mouth moments before she does reach that stage with tough matches to overcome.
Winner
The Women's event looks an open one this week, but I am going to have an each-way interest in both Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova to get to the Final at the very least with the draws they have been given. Sharapova is definitely the player with the tougher draw, while I think Azarenka could be fresh for a Semi Final with whichever player comes through the second quarter and that could give her the edge.
Outside of Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, I think Azarenka feels confident she can beat anyone on the Tour so she looks decent value at 5.00 to win the event, while Sharapova is also a nice looking 5.50.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 2.00 Stan James (4 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)
Maria Sharapova @ 5.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)
Tennis Recap May 6-13 (Madrid)
It wasn't a great week in Madrid for tennis fans as too many players were not happy about being here and that meant that there were some poor performances and some really surprising results.
I don't think I can remember the last time that both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal had exited a Masters event before the Semi Finals, and both players left with their future participation at the event very much in doubt.
I'll put down a few thoughts from the event below and also update the season profit and loss. I will then have a separate thread with the outright picks from the Rome Masters, which actually began earlier today, and daily pick threads will start from tomorrow...
Roger Federer has reached World Number 2: Over the last 6-8 months, Roger Federer has definitely got back to something like his best and I am not surprised in the slightest that he has overtaken Rafael Nadal in the Rankings and moved back to the World Number 2 position. For the first time in many years, Federer has made it no secret of his desire to return to the Number 1 position when this season began and he is well on the way to getting somewhere near that as Novak Djokovic has plenty more points to defend than the Swiss man.
A couple of months ago, I also made it a point to suggest the move back into the top 2 in the World Rankings may actually aid Federer's chances of winning another Grand Slam as he is could, depending on the draw of course, no longer need to beat BOTH Rafael Nadal and Djokovic to do so. At the end of the day, in a gruelling Grand Slam event, it is those small differences that can make all the difference.
Now I am not sure when the French Open decides on their seeds but I do know that unlike Wimbledon, they are based solely on the Rankings a player has rather than looking at past results as Wimbledon does. My only question is whether the seedings are taken from Rankings in this week or the previous week?
Federer only reached the Third Round at the Rome Masters last season, so I expect he will likely further increase his lead over Nadal in the Number 3 position and perhaps close further on Djokovic as the Number 1...
Serena Williams may still not be the player to beat at Roland Garros: I have tremendous respect for Serena Williams who I regularly describe as the best player in the World, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon just yet that she is the favourite to win at Roland Garros.
The bottom line is she has struggled at that event throughout her career, only winning it once, and she regularly has to beat the fans as well as her opponent and that has never really sat well with her.
Williams did record a thumping win over Victoria Azarenka, the World Number 1 and the most in-form player in 2012, but the conditions in Madrid favour the American's game so much and are not replicated in Paris. The altitude makes the ball run faster, while the courts have always been quicker than other clay courts so I think it is too soon for people to label Williams as the favourite.
Next week the Tour moves to Rome and I will be interested to see how she performs there (although she may make my outright plan once I look at her draw).
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic whinging: Normally I would say that the players are being bad losers in their criticisms of the courts in Madrid, but you can't really say too much when the organisers themselves admit that they are slippery and they have made mistakes in the way they have laid the surface.
The problem here seems to be that the courts have been laid too late, meaning there was nothing that could be done once the organisers realised that they were not as playable as they had been making out in the lead up to the event.
I would love to see more contrasts in the courts around the World rather than the way they are at the moment with similar speeds and little variation in the surfaces... However, I don't think the courts in Madrid came under that category, but rather were a little dangerous with players struggling with footing and turning.
With the top two players (in terms of Ranking coming into the event) essentially saying they will boycott this tournament in the future until they return to the red clay, I think Madrid's hand may well be forced for the 2013 event.
Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.60 Units (26 Units Staked)
Season Update: + 34.08 Units (354 Units Staked, 9.63% yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I don't think I can remember the last time that both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal had exited a Masters event before the Semi Finals, and both players left with their future participation at the event very much in doubt.
I'll put down a few thoughts from the event below and also update the season profit and loss. I will then have a separate thread with the outright picks from the Rome Masters, which actually began earlier today, and daily pick threads will start from tomorrow...
Roger Federer has reached World Number 2: Over the last 6-8 months, Roger Federer has definitely got back to something like his best and I am not surprised in the slightest that he has overtaken Rafael Nadal in the Rankings and moved back to the World Number 2 position. For the first time in many years, Federer has made it no secret of his desire to return to the Number 1 position when this season began and he is well on the way to getting somewhere near that as Novak Djokovic has plenty more points to defend than the Swiss man.
A couple of months ago, I also made it a point to suggest the move back into the top 2 in the World Rankings may actually aid Federer's chances of winning another Grand Slam as he is could, depending on the draw of course, no longer need to beat BOTH Rafael Nadal and Djokovic to do so. At the end of the day, in a gruelling Grand Slam event, it is those small differences that can make all the difference.
Now I am not sure when the French Open decides on their seeds but I do know that unlike Wimbledon, they are based solely on the Rankings a player has rather than looking at past results as Wimbledon does. My only question is whether the seedings are taken from Rankings in this week or the previous week?
Federer only reached the Third Round at the Rome Masters last season, so I expect he will likely further increase his lead over Nadal in the Number 3 position and perhaps close further on Djokovic as the Number 1...
Serena Williams may still not be the player to beat at Roland Garros: I have tremendous respect for Serena Williams who I regularly describe as the best player in the World, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon just yet that she is the favourite to win at Roland Garros.
The bottom line is she has struggled at that event throughout her career, only winning it once, and she regularly has to beat the fans as well as her opponent and that has never really sat well with her.
Williams did record a thumping win over Victoria Azarenka, the World Number 1 and the most in-form player in 2012, but the conditions in Madrid favour the American's game so much and are not replicated in Paris. The altitude makes the ball run faster, while the courts have always been quicker than other clay courts so I think it is too soon for people to label Williams as the favourite.
Next week the Tour moves to Rome and I will be interested to see how she performs there (although she may make my outright plan once I look at her draw).
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic whinging: Normally I would say that the players are being bad losers in their criticisms of the courts in Madrid, but you can't really say too much when the organisers themselves admit that they are slippery and they have made mistakes in the way they have laid the surface.
The problem here seems to be that the courts have been laid too late, meaning there was nothing that could be done once the organisers realised that they were not as playable as they had been making out in the lead up to the event.
I would love to see more contrasts in the courts around the World rather than the way they are at the moment with similar speeds and little variation in the surfaces... However, I don't think the courts in Madrid came under that category, but rather were a little dangerous with players struggling with footing and turning.
With the top two players (in terms of Ranking coming into the event) essentially saying they will boycott this tournament in the future until they return to the red clay, I think Madrid's hand may well be forced for the 2013 event.
Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.60 Units (26 Units Staked)
Season Update: + 34.08 Units (354 Units Staked, 9.63% yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
English Weekend Picks: Premier League Final Day (May 13th)
Wow, the season is already coming to a close? It feels like it had just started yesterday, but here we are at the final day and with so much still to be resolved.
The title, relegation and Champions League places are all up for grabs, but it is still a time when players motivations have to be questioned.
Some will not want to take a silly injury ahead of the Euro Championships in Poland/Ukraine that start in less than a months time, while others are thinking about the Summer holiday they have booked with wives/friends.
Anyway, I put a few thoughts down from a few of the games taking place on Sunday that you can see below:
West Brom v Arsenal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14203-West-Brom-v-Arsenal.htm)
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14205-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Fulham.htm)
Chelsea v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14206-Chelsea-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)
Everton v Newcastle United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14237-Everton-v-Newcastle-United.htm)
Norwich City v Aston Villa Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14238-Norwich-City-v-Aston-Villa.htm)
Stoke City v Bolton Wanderers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14240-Stoke-City-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)
Sunderland v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14239-Sunderland-v-Manchester-United.htm)
MY PICKS: West Brom + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 188Bet (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Everton @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Norwich City @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bolton Wanderers @ 2.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United to be leading after 30 minutes @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
The title, relegation and Champions League places are all up for grabs, but it is still a time when players motivations have to be questioned.
Some will not want to take a silly injury ahead of the Euro Championships in Poland/Ukraine that start in less than a months time, while others are thinking about the Summer holiday they have booked with wives/friends.
Anyway, I put a few thoughts down from a few of the games taking place on Sunday that you can see below:
West Brom v Arsenal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14203-West-Brom-v-Arsenal.htm)
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14205-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Fulham.htm)
Chelsea v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14206-Chelsea-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)
Everton v Newcastle United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14237-Everton-v-Newcastle-United.htm)
Norwich City v Aston Villa Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14238-Norwich-City-v-Aston-Villa.htm)
Stoke City v Bolton Wanderers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14240-Stoke-City-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)
Sunderland v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14239-Sunderland-v-Manchester-United.htm)
MY PICKS: West Brom + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 188Bet (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Everton @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Norwich City @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bolton Wanderers @ 2.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United to be leading after 30 minutes @ 2.63 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
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