Well it was a day when my picks sucked as 2 out 3 fell down the drain.
I was a little happy seeing Gilles Simon get knocked out after he had missed plenty of chances to win both of the first two sets, only to fight back to 2-2 for the loss of 4 games in Sets 3 and 4. I would have been disappointed if he had won 3-2 after I had predicted him to cover the set handicap, especially in the manner he had choked the first two sets.
Gael Monfils made his cover all the more difficult when he lost the first set 6-2, but Sorana Cirstea could not recover from a 1-6 first set loss despite coming back and winning the match, so it ended up being a day where some of the profit from the early part of the week was stripped away.
DAY 5 PICKS
John Isner - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: I know Isner got a lucky call in his last game with David Nalbandian to move through to this Round, and I am also aware he was forced into a tough 5 setter, but I think he has the beating of the inconsistent Lopez.
Isner will have an easier time holding serve in this match, in my opinion, as Lopez is not exactly the best returner of serve on the planet, unlike Nalbandian who has always excelled at that aspect of the game.
There are likely to be a couple of tie breakers, and I think Isner has always proved himself up to that challenge mentally, as he showed when beating Rafael Nadal in 2 tie-breakers at the French Open in a 5 set loss to the Spaniard last year.
Isner won their only previous meeting on a fast indoor court in Paris at the back end of last season, a surface that Lopez is usually a tough test for any player. Isner won that match 6-4, 6-2, and while I don't think it will be that easy, I think the American gets through without the match going the distance.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: Now if you follow my Twitter account, you will know what I think of the Ukranian player- a truly talented one, but infuriating who too often loses sets in the most ridiculous of fashion and one I would not want to back at any time... Until now.
Regular followers of the blog may actually remember the last time I picked Dolgopolov to win a match- it was back in Shanghai when he faced the save opponent he is meeting today.
At the time, I believe my records indicate that Dolgopolov when off as the slight favourite, yet he is now an underdog, most likely because he has been pushed in both his matches here in Melbourne and is also facing a talented Tomic in front of his own supporters.
However, Dolgopolov has the unique shot making that has given Tomic plenty of problems in the past, winning all 3 of their meetings, mostly in dominating fasihion. Dolgopolov also beat Tomic twice in Australia in those matches and beat him twice last season and I think he could cause a surprise here.
Tomic is definitely one for the future, but I think his tournament could be coming to an end in the night session.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games vs Romina Oprandi: I like Goerges' chances to progress through to the next Round against an opponent that has just recorded a huge win against a former Grand Slam winner.
Oprandi's win over Francesca Schiavone in the last Round was a big deal as both girls are Italian and it has to be one of the biggest win of Oprandi's career, especially at Grand Slam level.
It might be hard for her to get up to compete with another talented player on the WTA Tour, one who has come off the boil a little after a big couple of months around the French Open last year. Goerges has not exactly been in super form to start the season, but she will be well rested having been on the right end of a retirement in the last Round.
Goerges has all the shot-making ability to make this a tough day for Oprandi, and beat the Italian in their only meeting at the US Open in 2010.
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games vs Christina McHale: Jelena Jankovic has not sustained the consistency that took her to the World Number 1 position, and her window for winning a maiden Grand Slam also looks to have closed as she is not able to really match up with the very best players in the World down to a lack of power in her groundstrokes.
However, Jankovic is still able to dominate some of the lesser players on the tour, and I think Christina McHale still falls into that category despite big improvements to her game in the last year.
McHale is a little fortunate to even still be in the tournament, but has been outclassed when she comes up against the very best players and I think Jankovic's style of play is going to cause her plenty of problems and expose any inconsistency in the McHale game.
Jankovic beat McHale comfortably in their only previous meeting, albeit on a clay court last year, but I still think she should be able to cover the spread on offer.
MY PICKS: John Isner - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 2.52 Units
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Thursday, 19 January 2012
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Australian Open Day 4 Picks
It was another productive day for the Picks as a third profitable day was secured... However, Lukas Lacko once again surprised me as he ousted Donald Young in 4 sets to move through to the 3rd Round- I am going out on a limb here and suggesting he might struggle to beat his next opponent, a certain Mr Rafael Nadal!!
The biggest surprise of the day was the exit of Mardy Fish from the Men's draw as he was beaten in straight sets by Alejandro Falla. That result has really opened up the draw for Juan Martin Del Potro to make it through to the Quarter Finals at least, although he has to improve his level by a couple of steps if he is going to make my outright prediction stand a chance.
Other than the actual tennis, the two most impressive feats on the court were probably the reactions of David Nalbandian and Marcos Baghdatis during their defeats to John Isner and Stanislas Wawrinka respectively.
Nalbandian had every right to be aggrieved (and I am not saying this because I have openly stated he is my favourite player of the last 10 years alongside Marat Safin)- at 8-8 with John Isner in the final set, the big American seemingly had his serve broken as his second serve was called out by the linesman. That was overturned by the umpire, who then refused to let Nalbandian challenge the call, a call that effectively cost him the match considering he was broken in the next game AND the ball WAS OUT on the Isner serve.
A shocking way to end the tournament and the Argentine was understandably upset, smashing his racquet at the end of the match. As I say in almost any sport, the referee/umpire should interject themselves into a game and actually decide the result and I truly hope some sort of punishment is handed out, either by the ITF or the ATP, because this kind of decision was remarkably out of sync with how challenges are used throughout the year.
Marcos Baghdatis destroying four racquets in a row
DAY 4 PICKS
Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets vs Julien Benneteau: The reason for this pick is actually fairly simple- I believe Gilles Simon is being under-rated because he was in a 5 set match in his opening game, while Julien Benneteau made serene progress in straight sets.
Simon has proven to be something of a match-up nightmare for Benneteau through the years, winning 4 of their 5 previous meetings, including the last 3 without losing a set.
We all know that Simon will look to fight for every ball and I still think he could be the slightly fresher player as Benneteau reached the delayed Final in Sydney last week which means he will be playing his 7 match in the last 11 days.
With all that being said, I am going to look for Simon to come through with a little room to spare.
Gael Monfils - 6 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: This looks like just about a small enough spread for me to bite on the talented Frenchman to go through to the 3rd Round in impressive fashion.
I have a feeling we may see Monfils make a real impact at the Australian Open this year and he will give the inconsistent Bellucci plenty of problems with his ability to return one more ball.
Much of Bellucci's best work has come on the clay courts and I think this is going to be a big ask for him to stay with Monfils, particularly in the latter continues mixing in the more aggressive shots to go with his general athletic ability.
Monfils has also won their only previous meeting, although that went the distance on a clay court before Monfils ran away with the match with a 6-1 final set score.
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games vs Urszula Radwanska: Now there is an element of doubt in my mind that we could possibly have an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance from Sorana Cirstea after she had the shock of the tournament so far by beating Sam Stosur in the 1st Round, but I think the match up means she is worth chancing.
Urszula Radwanska is the same age as Cirstea, but is fighting her own battle of trying to get out of older sister's shadow in the form of the successful Agnieska Radwanska. Urszula has really struggled on the main tour since turning professional, and last season even failed to qualify for the first 3 Grand Slams of the year.
Cirstea definitely seems to be in the better place in her career so far and also won the last time these two girls met in Hobart back in 2008- I think Cirstea is definitely the much more improved player and will look for her to get through in straight sets.
Andy Roddick to win 3-1 in sets vs Lleyton Hewitt: I am going to have a small interest in the American getting the better of 'Rusty' in front of his home support in an entertaining match, but it's only a small interest as I think the layers have underestimated the chances of Hewitt nicking a set on his way out of the tournament.
Roddick has won the last 6 matches between the two players so I do believe he has Hewitt's number now, especially considering the Australian was 5-1 in the 6 previous meetings.
Hewitt can still up his game enough to cause problems for Roddick as shown by the fact he has taken at least a set in 3 of their last 4 matches against one another since 2009. He also took Roddick to 5 sets at Wimbledon in a Quarter Final in 2009, the year Roddick got to the final only to fall to Roger Federer 16-14 in the 5th set.
With the home support, I think we will see Hewitt raise his game again to take a set off Roddick, but I fancy the American will once again prove a little too consistent and I'll take a small interest in the set betting here.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets @ 2.25 Unibet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 5-3, + 4.32 Units
The biggest surprise of the day was the exit of Mardy Fish from the Men's draw as he was beaten in straight sets by Alejandro Falla. That result has really opened up the draw for Juan Martin Del Potro to make it through to the Quarter Finals at least, although he has to improve his level by a couple of steps if he is going to make my outright prediction stand a chance.
Other than the actual tennis, the two most impressive feats on the court were probably the reactions of David Nalbandian and Marcos Baghdatis during their defeats to John Isner and Stanislas Wawrinka respectively.
Nalbandian had every right to be aggrieved (and I am not saying this because I have openly stated he is my favourite player of the last 10 years alongside Marat Safin)- at 8-8 with John Isner in the final set, the big American seemingly had his serve broken as his second serve was called out by the linesman. That was overturned by the umpire, who then refused to let Nalbandian challenge the call, a call that effectively cost him the match considering he was broken in the next game AND the ball WAS OUT on the Isner serve.
A shocking way to end the tournament and the Argentine was understandably upset, smashing his racquet at the end of the match. As I say in almost any sport, the referee/umpire should interject themselves into a game and actually decide the result and I truly hope some sort of punishment is handed out, either by the ITF or the ATP, because this kind of decision was remarkably out of sync with how challenges are used throughout the year.
Marcos Baghdatis destroying four racquets in a row
DAY 4 PICKS
Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets vs Julien Benneteau: The reason for this pick is actually fairly simple- I believe Gilles Simon is being under-rated because he was in a 5 set match in his opening game, while Julien Benneteau made serene progress in straight sets.
Simon has proven to be something of a match-up nightmare for Benneteau through the years, winning 4 of their 5 previous meetings, including the last 3 without losing a set.
We all know that Simon will look to fight for every ball and I still think he could be the slightly fresher player as Benneteau reached the delayed Final in Sydney last week which means he will be playing his 7 match in the last 11 days.
With all that being said, I am going to look for Simon to come through with a little room to spare.
Gael Monfils - 6 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: This looks like just about a small enough spread for me to bite on the talented Frenchman to go through to the 3rd Round in impressive fashion.
I have a feeling we may see Monfils make a real impact at the Australian Open this year and he will give the inconsistent Bellucci plenty of problems with his ability to return one more ball.
Much of Bellucci's best work has come on the clay courts and I think this is going to be a big ask for him to stay with Monfils, particularly in the latter continues mixing in the more aggressive shots to go with his general athletic ability.
Monfils has also won their only previous meeting, although that went the distance on a clay court before Monfils ran away with the match with a 6-1 final set score.
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games vs Urszula Radwanska: Now there is an element of doubt in my mind that we could possibly have an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance from Sorana Cirstea after she had the shock of the tournament so far by beating Sam Stosur in the 1st Round, but I think the match up means she is worth chancing.
Urszula Radwanska is the same age as Cirstea, but is fighting her own battle of trying to get out of older sister's shadow in the form of the successful Agnieska Radwanska. Urszula has really struggled on the main tour since turning professional, and last season even failed to qualify for the first 3 Grand Slams of the year.
Cirstea definitely seems to be in the better place in her career so far and also won the last time these two girls met in Hobart back in 2008- I think Cirstea is definitely the much more improved player and will look for her to get through in straight sets.
Andy Roddick to win 3-1 in sets vs Lleyton Hewitt: I am going to have a small interest in the American getting the better of 'Rusty' in front of his home support in an entertaining match, but it's only a small interest as I think the layers have underestimated the chances of Hewitt nicking a set on his way out of the tournament.
Roddick has won the last 6 matches between the two players so I do believe he has Hewitt's number now, especially considering the Australian was 5-1 in the 6 previous meetings.
Hewitt can still up his game enough to cause problems for Roddick as shown by the fact he has taken at least a set in 3 of their last 4 matches against one another since 2009. He also took Roddick to 5 sets at Wimbledon in a Quarter Final in 2009, the year Roddick got to the final only to fall to Roger Federer 16-14 in the 5th set.
With the home support, I think we will see Hewitt raise his game again to take a set off Roddick, but I fancy the American will once again prove a little too consistent and I'll take a small interest in the set betting here.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 1.5 sets @ 2.25 Unibet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Roddick win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 5-3, + 4.32 Units
Tuesday, 17 January 2012
Australian Open Day 3 Picks
So the picks went 1-1 yesterday as Sam Stosur not only failed to cover the spread, but LOST outright in the biggest surprise of the tournament so far in either the Men's or Women's draws.
Fortunately, Jelena Dokic proved my thinking correct that she was wrongly set as the underdog as she demolished Anna Chakvetadze 6-1, 6-2 for an easy passage through to the next Round.
In other news, both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic moved through in easy fashion, keeping all 6 of my outright selections alive going into Round 2 that starts today.
The Australian Open has been a tournament usually full of surprises in recent years as players are coming in off of long lay-offs so you have to tread carefully throughout this fortnight.
DAY 3 PICKS
Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games vs Olivier Rochus: This is perhaps a little risky considering the large spread of games, but the best of 5 sets that the Men have to complete gives Berdych a chance of covering in my opinion despite the Czech player dropping a set in his opening game of the tournament.
Berdych should not be surprised by the way Rochus plays considering they have met 9 times in the past, with the Czech player winning 6 of those clashes.
It is telling that he has won the last 5 meetings between the players after really struggling against Rochus in the early days, and he has completed a bagel in 3 of the last 4 clashes against the Belgian player.
Berdych has won 11 of the last 12 sets contested between the players, and all of those winning sets have been 6-3 or better except one that he won 6-4.
The problem for Rochus is that he is likely having to work much harder to retain serve and that can be tough to do for a couple of hours in the heat that has been affecting Melbourne in the last couple of days. If Berdych can perform as he has against Rochus in recent clashes, I think he will be too big and powerful for him again here.
Feliciano Lopez - 5.5 games vs Flavio Cipolla: I like the Spaniard to beat Cipolla here who is coming off a big surprise win over Nikolay Davydenko, although the latter is not the player of old.
Lopez should keep plenty of pressure on Cipolla by holding serve a little more effectively, while the Italian has not really brought his form from Challenger events onto the main tour. Lopez also had one of his better seasons on the tour last year and will see this as a chance to build some more Ranking points by going at least one stage further than at the same tournament in 2011.
I expect Lopez should get through in straight sets in this contest, and that should enable him to cover this spread.
Donald Young - 1.5 sets vs Lukas Lacko: I am going back to the well by opposing Lukas Lacko in this Round after he stumped me on Day 1 with a comeback win over Ivan Ljubicic despite being 2 sets and a break down.
Donald Young looked like he was cruising into this Round when he won the first 2 sets against Peter Gojokcyyk for the loss of just 3 games, but he kind of took his foot off the pedal before wrapping up the win with a 6-2 final set win.
Young is an enigma, but has begun to show more flashes of actually matching the potential he had as a young teenager. He had a breakout tournament at the US Open, where he beat Lacko in straight sets, and actually had more wins on the main tour than he had in the previous 3 seasons combined.
Lacko did very well in fighting back to beat Ivan Ljubicic in the last Round, but I have a feeling he may have had to use more energy than Young did in his 5 set win, and this could be a hurdle too far if he falls behind.
The Slovakian made a lot of unforced errors in his loss to Young at the US Open, and he will have to be much more solid in this match if he wants to get through. However, I still Young may be a little too good for him just now and will take my chances that the American gets through with room to spare.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games @ 2.05 188Bet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 5.5 games @ 1.90 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Donald Young - 1.5 sets @ 2.50 Unibet (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 3-2, + 2.42 Units
Fortunately, Jelena Dokic proved my thinking correct that she was wrongly set as the underdog as she demolished Anna Chakvetadze 6-1, 6-2 for an easy passage through to the next Round.
In other news, both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic moved through in easy fashion, keeping all 6 of my outright selections alive going into Round 2 that starts today.
The Australian Open has been a tournament usually full of surprises in recent years as players are coming in off of long lay-offs so you have to tread carefully throughout this fortnight.
DAY 3 PICKS
Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games vs Olivier Rochus: This is perhaps a little risky considering the large spread of games, but the best of 5 sets that the Men have to complete gives Berdych a chance of covering in my opinion despite the Czech player dropping a set in his opening game of the tournament.
Berdych should not be surprised by the way Rochus plays considering they have met 9 times in the past, with the Czech player winning 6 of those clashes.
It is telling that he has won the last 5 meetings between the players after really struggling against Rochus in the early days, and he has completed a bagel in 3 of the last 4 clashes against the Belgian player.
Berdych has won 11 of the last 12 sets contested between the players, and all of those winning sets have been 6-3 or better except one that he won 6-4.
The problem for Rochus is that he is likely having to work much harder to retain serve and that can be tough to do for a couple of hours in the heat that has been affecting Melbourne in the last couple of days. If Berdych can perform as he has against Rochus in recent clashes, I think he will be too big and powerful for him again here.
Feliciano Lopez - 5.5 games vs Flavio Cipolla: I like the Spaniard to beat Cipolla here who is coming off a big surprise win over Nikolay Davydenko, although the latter is not the player of old.
Lopez should keep plenty of pressure on Cipolla by holding serve a little more effectively, while the Italian has not really brought his form from Challenger events onto the main tour. Lopez also had one of his better seasons on the tour last year and will see this as a chance to build some more Ranking points by going at least one stage further than at the same tournament in 2011.
I expect Lopez should get through in straight sets in this contest, and that should enable him to cover this spread.
Donald Young - 1.5 sets vs Lukas Lacko: I am going back to the well by opposing Lukas Lacko in this Round after he stumped me on Day 1 with a comeback win over Ivan Ljubicic despite being 2 sets and a break down.
Donald Young looked like he was cruising into this Round when he won the first 2 sets against Peter Gojokcyyk for the loss of just 3 games, but he kind of took his foot off the pedal before wrapping up the win with a 6-2 final set win.
Young is an enigma, but has begun to show more flashes of actually matching the potential he had as a young teenager. He had a breakout tournament at the US Open, where he beat Lacko in straight sets, and actually had more wins on the main tour than he had in the previous 3 seasons combined.
Lacko did very well in fighting back to beat Ivan Ljubicic in the last Round, but I have a feeling he may have had to use more energy than Young did in his 5 set win, and this could be a hurdle too far if he falls behind.
The Slovakian made a lot of unforced errors in his loss to Young at the US Open, and he will have to be much more solid in this match if he wants to get through. However, I still Young may be a little too good for him just now and will take my chances that the American gets through with room to spare.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games @ 2.05 188Bet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 5.5 games @ 1.90 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Donald Young - 1.5 sets @ 2.50 Unibet (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 3-2, + 2.42 Units
Monday, 16 January 2012
Australian Open Day 2 Picks
It was a decent start to the tournament on Day 1, but it could have been all the better if Ivan Ljubicic had not blown a 2 set lead when we needed him to go through with a 3 or 4 set win. What made that result more disappointing was the fact that Ljubicic had a break advantage in the 3rd set before essentially falling away.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both enjoyed straight-forward wins in their 1st Round clashes. The Women's draw also saw the leading lights go forward into the next Round, although there were plenty of favourites who were beaten in their contests.
DAY 2 PICKS
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games vs Sorana Cirstea: I think Stosur will be too strong for a young opponent that has been beaten handily in the Grand Slam tournaments last year. Cirstea could potentially find this match a little overwhelming as the fans will be totally behind their home favourite and I feel Stosur is too effective for her.
Stosur has won 2 of their 3 meetings, although Cirstea won the last won in 2010. However, I think the World Number 5 will be too strong.
Jelena Dokic vs Anna Chakvetadze: I am surprised that Dokic is the underdog in this game, even though the Australian has not been in great form starting this season, and that is mainly down to the fact that Anna Chakvetadze has had injuries ruin her career in recent seasons.
Chakvetadze had not played since Wimbledon before having to retire in Hobart last week and I think Dokic could take advantage of the lack of fitness in this heat.
Dokic has also won their only previous meeting, at this tournament in 2009, and I think she is perhaps under-rated here.
MY PICKS: Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Dokic @ 2.38 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Daily Picks: 2-1, + 1.66 Units
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both enjoyed straight-forward wins in their 1st Round clashes. The Women's draw also saw the leading lights go forward into the next Round, although there were plenty of favourites who were beaten in their contests.
DAY 2 PICKS
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games vs Sorana Cirstea: I think Stosur will be too strong for a young opponent that has been beaten handily in the Grand Slam tournaments last year. Cirstea could potentially find this match a little overwhelming as the fans will be totally behind their home favourite and I feel Stosur is too effective for her.
Stosur has won 2 of their 3 meetings, although Cirstea won the last won in 2010. However, I think the World Number 5 will be too strong.
Jelena Dokic vs Anna Chakvetadze: I am surprised that Dokic is the underdog in this game, even though the Australian has not been in great form starting this season, and that is mainly down to the fact that Anna Chakvetadze has had injuries ruin her career in recent seasons.
Chakvetadze had not played since Wimbledon before having to retire in Hobart last week and I think Dokic could take advantage of the lack of fitness in this heat.
Dokic has also won their only previous meeting, at this tournament in 2009, and I think she is perhaps under-rated here.
MY PICKS: Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Dokic @ 2.38 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Daily Picks: 2-1, + 1.66 Units
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Australian Open Day 1 Picks
The tournament starts in a few hours and I have been studying the matches all day, although a lot of the markets have not been available for us until a little later.
The first day of the Grand Slams is not usually my favourite time to make too many plays as the layers have had enough time to destroy any value that was in the market- that usually changes as games come quick and fast once a tournament gets underway.
DAY 1 PICKS
Sergey Stakhovsky - 4.5 games vs Iliya Marchenko: Now I know Stakhovsky had a let down of a season last year, but I think he is being under-rated against a player that he has dealt with in all 3 meetings previously.
Stakhovsky has won the last 5 sets when they have met and has enough consistency in his play to disrupt Marchenko, a player always liable to throwing in a cheap service game in a set.
Stakhovsky has lost both his opening games this season, but he will have the mentality that this is a winnable contest and he had not been in great form when reaching the 3rd Round here last year.
The biggest thing that concerns me is that he has won all of the previous meetings on an indoor hard court, but I still think Stakhovsky should be too good and could still cover even if he drops a set.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 Sets vs Lukas Lacko: As I said in my outright preview, Ivan Ljubicic is coming towards the end of his career, but I still see this as a contest he can win with a little bit of room to spare.
This will be the big Croatian's first appearance of the new season, and he does face someone who has come through the 3 Qualifying Rounds, but I still think Ljubicic is ahead of the curve that Lukas Lacko finds himself on.
Lacko has to overcome the fact that he was beaten in the 1st Round in 3 of the 4 Grand Slams last season, failing to even Qualify for the French Open, and I think the experience will be the key to Ljubicic moving forwards, although he may drop a set in the process.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Alexander Kudryavtsev: I think Federer may make a big statement to open up his Australian Open campaign as he wants to put aside fears about his back, plus he has to be mad after hearing comments attributed to Rafael Nadal about only caring for himself.
The former World Number 1 could not really ask for a better 1st Round clash against a player that has 12 matches on the main tour in the last 4 seasons.
I will be honest that I don't know an awful lot about Kudryatsev, but he is surely going to be a little overawed at playing one of the best players of all time. Federer crushed Lukas Lacko in this Round last year and I have a feeling he may hand out another lesson to have people talking about his tennis again.
MY PICKS: Sergiy Stakhovsky - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
The first day of the Grand Slams is not usually my favourite time to make too many plays as the layers have had enough time to destroy any value that was in the market- that usually changes as games come quick and fast once a tournament gets underway.
DAY 1 PICKS
Sergey Stakhovsky - 4.5 games vs Iliya Marchenko: Now I know Stakhovsky had a let down of a season last year, but I think he is being under-rated against a player that he has dealt with in all 3 meetings previously.
Stakhovsky has won the last 5 sets when they have met and has enough consistency in his play to disrupt Marchenko, a player always liable to throwing in a cheap service game in a set.
Stakhovsky has lost both his opening games this season, but he will have the mentality that this is a winnable contest and he had not been in great form when reaching the 3rd Round here last year.
The biggest thing that concerns me is that he has won all of the previous meetings on an indoor hard court, but I still think Stakhovsky should be too good and could still cover even if he drops a set.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 Sets vs Lukas Lacko: As I said in my outright preview, Ivan Ljubicic is coming towards the end of his career, but I still see this as a contest he can win with a little bit of room to spare.
This will be the big Croatian's first appearance of the new season, and he does face someone who has come through the 3 Qualifying Rounds, but I still think Ljubicic is ahead of the curve that Lukas Lacko finds himself on.
Lacko has to overcome the fact that he was beaten in the 1st Round in 3 of the 4 Grand Slams last season, failing to even Qualify for the French Open, and I think the experience will be the key to Ljubicic moving forwards, although he may drop a set in the process.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Alexander Kudryavtsev: I think Federer may make a big statement to open up his Australian Open campaign as he wants to put aside fears about his back, plus he has to be mad after hearing comments attributed to Rafael Nadal about only caring for himself.
The former World Number 1 could not really ask for a better 1st Round clash against a player that has 12 matches on the main tour in the last 4 seasons.
I will be honest that I don't know an awful lot about Kudryatsev, but he is surely going to be a little overawed at playing one of the best players of all time. Federer crushed Lukas Lacko in this Round last year and I have a feeling he may hand out another lesson to have people talking about his tennis again.
MY PICKS: Sergiy Stakhovsky - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Australian Open 2012 Outright Picks
It feels like only yesterday that Novak Djokovic was wrapping up his 3rd Grand Slam title of the season at the US Open but here we are just a day away from the start of the first Grand Slam of 2012 at the Australian Open.
Anyone who followed this blog at all in the last year knows I like my tennis and I usually have picks on a weekly basis. I haven't made any to start this season as the early weeks of the season are all about players getting their fitness up to scratch and focused completely on this tournament. That leads to pull outs (even Roger Federer has pulled out of a tournament this year, his 2nd pullout in his career) and surprise winners of tournaments so I decided it was best to start the picks from this tournament.
I am going to make my outright picks on this page and I will have daily picks from the tournament through the next couple of weeks.
Men's Tournament
First Quarter
This is the quarter in which the World Number 1, and favourite to win the tournament, Novak Djokovic is placed. I think Djokovic is going to be fairly happy with his early part of the draw, not really facing anyone that can cause too many problems until the 4th Round.
At that stage he could be paired with either Andy Roddick or Milos Raonic, the latter winning the tournament in Chennai coming into this one. Roddick could already be battle hardened by the time his 3rd Round clash with Raonic comes about, facing Robin Haase and potentially Lleyton Hewitt before that.
Either way, I don't think Djokovic will have too many problems getting through to the Quarter Finals, possibly dropping a set or two at most along the way.
At this stage, Djokovic is seeded to face David Ferrer, the Spaniard still showing his talent despite coming towards the latter part of his career. Ferrer won the tournament in Auckland before this one was to begin, and has also beaten Nadal this season at the exhibition in the Middle East. Even though the players split their meetings last season 1-1, I think Djokovic has too much consistency for Ferrer and demolished him for the loss of 3 games in a meeting earlier this season.
Ferrer will also have to negotiate a potential 4th Round clash with either Janko Tipsarevic or Richard Gasquet with the former being the bigger threat to Djokovic in my opinion, especially if he can bring the form that took him to the US Open Quarter Finals into Australia.
Overall, I do think Djokovic will be too strong for this section, although Tipsarevic could provide a stern test in a potential Quarter Final despite needing to negotiate a couple of tricky matches before reaching that stage.
Second Quarter
The top seed in this Quarter of the draw is Andy Murray, but he has also been the most unfortunate of the top players with a number of tricky matches standing in his way. The first two rounds are likely to see him face Ryan Harrison and Xavier Malisse, both winnable contests but ones that could take a little longer than someone would want to spend on the courts in a hot Australia.
However, it is the 4th Round that brings a big challenge in the form of Gael Monfils, a player that looks set to finally fulfil some of the potential he has always had. Monfils is playing aggressive tennis at the start of this season, tennis that saw him reach the Final in Doha while beating Rafael Nadal on the way. This could easily be the match of the Round and one that could go either way.
The player that may take advantage of a titanic 4th Round game between Monfils and Murray is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Tsonga has previous at the Australian Open where he reached the Final in 2008 and he has what looks like a straight forward draw to the Quarter Final against the winner of the match above.
I don't see Tsonga having too many issues in the first 3 Rounds of the tournament and I don't really foresee him losing more than a set in that time. His biggest problem could be facing Kei Nishikori in a potential 4th Round clash- Nishikori has won the 2 previous meetings against Tsonga, but he has been very inconsistent in his career so far and it would not surprise me if he lost to someone like Matthew Ebden before that time.
Murray has a very good record against Tsonga, winning 5 of their 6 clashes, although his one loss came in this tournament in 2008. However, it will be interesting to see how much the clash with Monfils has taken out of the World Number 4, while Tsonga has a much stronger record against his fellow countryman.
Murray is rightly expected to come out of this Quarter, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tsonga can punish his way through the Brit after his tough game with Monfils and go through to the Semi Finals instead.
Third Quarter
Roger Federer has been placed in the Third Quarter here at the Australian Open and can't be overly disappointed with his opportunity to work his way into the tournament despite concerns about his back that forced a pullout in Doha. I don't think Federer will have too many issues getting through the first 3 Rounds of the tournament, but there are a couple of potential dangermen lurking in the 4th Round.
Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fernando Verdasco and Bernard Tomic are all potential opponents at that stage for Federer. The most likely to face him, in my opinion, is Dolgopolov as I feel he has been given the best draw. However, I wouldn't be overly confident in picking a player that has had the habit of throwing in disappointing performances and it would be no surprise if he did exit the tournament earlier than expected.
Barring any lingering back issues, I think Federer will be strong enough to at least continue his run of reaching the Quarter Finals of Grand Slams over the last 7 years.
At that stage, the former World Number 1 could be paired with either Mardy Fish or Juan Martin Del Potro, two of the real dark horses in this tournament. I expect both of these players to make their way through the draw to a potential 4th Round clash and that could be another titanic clash.
Fish leads the head to head between the players 3-2, but I think Del Potro was showing a lot of flashes of his old form towards the end of last season and I would fancy the big Argentinian to find his way through, perhaps in a good old-fashioned 5 set match.
A Federer-Del Potro clash would be their first in a Grand Slam since the US Open Final of 2009 and could be really difficult to decide. However, if Federer's back is giving him any kind of lingering pain, Del Potro may just be able to make his next big breakthrough at this tournament and knock off one of the World's top 3 players.
Fourth Quarter
The final Quarter is where Rafael Nadal will reside and I think he will be more than happy that the likes of Fish, Del Potro and Tsonga have not been placed in his section. A quick look at his draw suggests the Spaniard should be too good for his first 3 opponents, including an Ivan Ljubicic who is definitely in the final couple of years of his career.
The 4th Round could see Nadal paired with a couple of players that are not the force of old in Nikolay Davydenko or David Nalbandian, but his most likely opponent will be John Isner. The big American doesn't have many matches under his belt this season, but his serve and groundstrokes should be well suited to this surface, and I think he will be too strong for the opponents he is likely to face in the early Rounds.
Isner will also feel he is more than capable of knocking off Rafael Nadal here after pushing him to 5 sets at the French Open last year and I would give him a shot in this game if he hasn't expended too much energy in the early Rounds. That was what done for Isner when he met Andy Murray in the 4th Round here in 2010, but I still think he could give Nadal plenty of issues.
The other seeded player for the Quarter Finals is Tomas Berdych and I think he has been given a kind draw to reach the 4th Round at a minimum. Kevin Anderson could be a dangerous 3rd Round opponent, but I expect the big Czech player to have too much consistency for Anderson and get through potentially in 4 sets.
It is hard to gauge who Berdych would meet in the 4th Round as there are some players that are out of form (Stanislas Wawrinka), inconsistent (Marcos Baghdatis), or not as good as a hard court as they are on a clay court (Nicolas Almagro). Wawrinka has beaten Berdych in the last 3 times they have played, but he has not been the same since becoming a father and I can't say I fully trust him to even get as far as the 4th Round.
I can see either Nadal, Isner or Berdych coming through this Quarter and reaching the Semi Final.
Semi Finals and Beyond
The Semi Finals, as far as I am concerned, could see a couple of fresher guys taking on players that have come through a couple of really tough Rounds, particularly when it comes to whoever Novak Djokovic gets to play.
It is hard to see anyone other than Djokovic going on to win this tournament and he will be the first player that I will keep on my side, placing a heavier load on the World Number 1's shoulders to retain his title.
On the other side of the draw, I am going to have a small interest on either Juan Martin Del Potro or Tomas Berdych at least making the Final by playing e/w on them. I like Del Potro's chances to take advantage of the ailing Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and it is a similar reasoning behind taking Tomas Berdych, who has been given a fairly kind draw before the Quarter Final.
Women's Tournament
First Quarter
This section of the draw is reserved for the World Number 1, Caroline Wozniacki, a player that anyone who has followed this blog for any time will know that I do not rate very highly. While Wozniacki is the Number 1 seed, the bigger stars in this section are surely the two Finalists from 2011, Kim Clijsters and Na Li.
Neither one of those Finalists are givens this season to reach the same stage simply because of injuries to Clijsters, while Li has struggled to deal with the expectations that come with being a Grand Slam Champion since winning at the French Open.
One player that could cause both Finalists a problem is Daniela Hantuchova, a Runner Up in the tournament at Brisbane to open the season and one who had some real success at Grand Slam level last season. Hantuchova is scheduled to meet Clijsters in the 3rd Round, if they both get there, and Li in the 4th Round so all 3 players could have a tough road just to get to a Quarter Final.
Wozniacki has been given a decent draw here and I don't expect too many issues before she is seeded to meet Jelena Jankovic in the 4th Round. However, the Serb former World Number 1 is not the same player of old and I would expect Wozniacki to move forward.
I don't know which of the 3 women I have highlighted from the bottom of this section will get through to the Semi Finals, but I think all 3 would be too strong if they got to meet Wozniacki at this stage, except for Hantuchova perhaps, as all would be a lot more battle-hardened. Kim Clijsters has said she is feeling very good at the moment, despite pulling out in Brisbane, and I would suggest she is still the one to beat in this section.
Second Quarter
The star in this section is the controversial Victoria Azarenka, a player that I find to be pretty good to watch and someone who could potentially win a Grand Slam this year if the cards fall right. She has been given a pretty decent draw, although with a couple of awkward looking early matches. I expect Azarenka to come through the opening 4 Rounds here, especially if she brings her form from Sydney into the tournament with her biggest threat being a 4th Round clash with Shuai Peng.
However, Azarenka leads the head to head 5-1, her only loss coming when she was forced to retire in the second set.
The bottom half of this Quarter has some decent players, led by Agnieska Radwanska and Francesca Schiavone, but I don't think either of these players will be capable of living with Azarenka if the latter is on form.
Radwanska has a tough opener against the American Bethanie Mattek-Sands and also a tough 3rd Round contest where she is seeded to meet Yanina Wickmayer. The Belgian player is an enigma that could cause plenty of problems for those in the bottom half of the section, but it all seems like it could open up for Azarenka to get through to another Semi Final at a Grand Slam.
Third Quarter
This is the Quarter that is dominated by the presence of Serena Williams, the American already accustomed to having a long lay-off and coming back to win this tournament. But don't think she is the only player in this part of the draw as there are some real threats in the form of Maria Sharapova, Sabine Lisicki and Vera Zvonareva to contend with.
Williams could face a tough test as soon as the 3rd Round thanks to her seeding, and she is set to meet Dominika Cibulkova at that stage if results go as they should. Williams also suffered a leg injury at a recent tournament in Brisbane, but has spoken about feeling better in the 10 days she has had to recover and I would expect her to beat a player that can struggle against the very best mentally and for physical power.
Zvonareva could be the next person in Williams way, or it could be Kaia Kenepi who won the tournament in Brisbane. I think an in-form Serena proves far too strong for either of those players and I would expect she would make the Quarter Finals if she is ready to play.
The bottom section of this Quarter has given Sharapova and Lisicki some problems to overcome- Sharapova has a tough 1st Round game with Gisela Dulko, but I expect the Russian can get through to the 4th Round if she wins that game.
Lisicki is likely to face the under-rated Svetlana Kuznetsova in the 3rd Round and that is never an easy task. With Lisicki having some injury issues, I think we could see a surprise here, and it could go a step further as Sharapova herself has not been at 100% for a while.
I think this section could quickly open up for Serena Williams, someone who is surely good to go if she has decided to take her place in the draw and one that has the beating of 90% of players even when she is not at her best herself.
Fourth Quarter
Petra Kvitova was an impressive winner at Wimbledon last year and she is the World Number 2 coming into this tournament and the favourite to win the event. Her style of play means she can take the racquet out of an opponents hands, but it also means that she can hurt herself if the groundstrokes are slightly off from normal.
Her biggest danger in this section before the Quarter Finals could be the up and coming Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who is a potential 4th Round opponent. Pavlyuchenkova has been steadily improving in the last 18 months, but could face a difficult game against Ana Ivanovic in the 3rd Round, a player she has yet to beat in her career.
There is one real threat at the top half of the draw in the form of home favourite, and reigning US Open Grand Slam Champion, Sam Stosur- she has had a similar problem as other first time winners of a Grand Slam in really struggling for form since winning at Flushing Meadows and it will be interesting to see how she deals with the expectation of the home crowd.
It will be interesting when she is seeded to meet Nadia Petrova in the 3rd Round, especially considering their epic at the US Open last September and that could be Stosur's undoing. Potentially facing Marion Bartoli will also not be an easy ask for Stosur in the 4th Round and I think it may be tough for her to replicate the form that took her all the way in New York.
While many will think Kvitova comes through this section, I think we could see the break-out performance of Anastasia Pavyluchenkova in this tournament and perhaps a surprise Semi Final berth.
Semi Final and Beyond
The Woman's draw looks to be dominated by those at the top of the market and I am not going to go too far away from those I think can win the tournament from the top half of the draw.
I think there are a lot of question marks over many of those in the bottom half of the draw, although I do think Serena Williams would be tough to stop if she is fighting fit. She could be given a chance to work herself into the tournament with the way the draw has panned out and I still think she is head and shoulders the best player in the World when she is fit to go.
Victoria Azarenka has really performed well here in the past although the heat has taken its toll on her. I think she is just about ready to make a real impact in a Grand Slam and perhaps go all the way and win it so I will have an interest in her to do so.
The other player I will keep on my side is Kim Clijsters as she has the pedigree of winning here and claims she is as healthy as she has been in months. Clijsters could be hard to stop at a double-digit price and I will keep her onside here too.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.38 Bodog (4 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro @ 17.00 Bet365 (0.5 Units E/W)
Tomas Berdych @ 51.00 Paddy Power (0.5 Units E/W)
Serena Williams @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka @ 7.00 Bodog (1 Unit)
Kim Clijsters @ 11.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
2011 Season: + 82.02 Units
Anyone who followed this blog at all in the last year knows I like my tennis and I usually have picks on a weekly basis. I haven't made any to start this season as the early weeks of the season are all about players getting their fitness up to scratch and focused completely on this tournament. That leads to pull outs (even Roger Federer has pulled out of a tournament this year, his 2nd pullout in his career) and surprise winners of tournaments so I decided it was best to start the picks from this tournament.
I am going to make my outright picks on this page and I will have daily picks from the tournament through the next couple of weeks.
Men's Tournament
First Quarter
This is the quarter in which the World Number 1, and favourite to win the tournament, Novak Djokovic is placed. I think Djokovic is going to be fairly happy with his early part of the draw, not really facing anyone that can cause too many problems until the 4th Round.
At that stage he could be paired with either Andy Roddick or Milos Raonic, the latter winning the tournament in Chennai coming into this one. Roddick could already be battle hardened by the time his 3rd Round clash with Raonic comes about, facing Robin Haase and potentially Lleyton Hewitt before that.
Either way, I don't think Djokovic will have too many problems getting through to the Quarter Finals, possibly dropping a set or two at most along the way.
At this stage, Djokovic is seeded to face David Ferrer, the Spaniard still showing his talent despite coming towards the latter part of his career. Ferrer won the tournament in Auckland before this one was to begin, and has also beaten Nadal this season at the exhibition in the Middle East. Even though the players split their meetings last season 1-1, I think Djokovic has too much consistency for Ferrer and demolished him for the loss of 3 games in a meeting earlier this season.
Ferrer will also have to negotiate a potential 4th Round clash with either Janko Tipsarevic or Richard Gasquet with the former being the bigger threat to Djokovic in my opinion, especially if he can bring the form that took him to the US Open Quarter Finals into Australia.
Overall, I do think Djokovic will be too strong for this section, although Tipsarevic could provide a stern test in a potential Quarter Final despite needing to negotiate a couple of tricky matches before reaching that stage.
Second Quarter
The top seed in this Quarter of the draw is Andy Murray, but he has also been the most unfortunate of the top players with a number of tricky matches standing in his way. The first two rounds are likely to see him face Ryan Harrison and Xavier Malisse, both winnable contests but ones that could take a little longer than someone would want to spend on the courts in a hot Australia.
However, it is the 4th Round that brings a big challenge in the form of Gael Monfils, a player that looks set to finally fulfil some of the potential he has always had. Monfils is playing aggressive tennis at the start of this season, tennis that saw him reach the Final in Doha while beating Rafael Nadal on the way. This could easily be the match of the Round and one that could go either way.
The player that may take advantage of a titanic 4th Round game between Monfils and Murray is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Tsonga has previous at the Australian Open where he reached the Final in 2008 and he has what looks like a straight forward draw to the Quarter Final against the winner of the match above.
I don't see Tsonga having too many issues in the first 3 Rounds of the tournament and I don't really foresee him losing more than a set in that time. His biggest problem could be facing Kei Nishikori in a potential 4th Round clash- Nishikori has won the 2 previous meetings against Tsonga, but he has been very inconsistent in his career so far and it would not surprise me if he lost to someone like Matthew Ebden before that time.
Murray has a very good record against Tsonga, winning 5 of their 6 clashes, although his one loss came in this tournament in 2008. However, it will be interesting to see how much the clash with Monfils has taken out of the World Number 4, while Tsonga has a much stronger record against his fellow countryman.
Murray is rightly expected to come out of this Quarter, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tsonga can punish his way through the Brit after his tough game with Monfils and go through to the Semi Finals instead.
Third Quarter
Roger Federer has been placed in the Third Quarter here at the Australian Open and can't be overly disappointed with his opportunity to work his way into the tournament despite concerns about his back that forced a pullout in Doha. I don't think Federer will have too many issues getting through the first 3 Rounds of the tournament, but there are a couple of potential dangermen lurking in the 4th Round.
Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fernando Verdasco and Bernard Tomic are all potential opponents at that stage for Federer. The most likely to face him, in my opinion, is Dolgopolov as I feel he has been given the best draw. However, I wouldn't be overly confident in picking a player that has had the habit of throwing in disappointing performances and it would be no surprise if he did exit the tournament earlier than expected.
Barring any lingering back issues, I think Federer will be strong enough to at least continue his run of reaching the Quarter Finals of Grand Slams over the last 7 years.
At that stage, the former World Number 1 could be paired with either Mardy Fish or Juan Martin Del Potro, two of the real dark horses in this tournament. I expect both of these players to make their way through the draw to a potential 4th Round clash and that could be another titanic clash.
Fish leads the head to head between the players 3-2, but I think Del Potro was showing a lot of flashes of his old form towards the end of last season and I would fancy the big Argentinian to find his way through, perhaps in a good old-fashioned 5 set match.
A Federer-Del Potro clash would be their first in a Grand Slam since the US Open Final of 2009 and could be really difficult to decide. However, if Federer's back is giving him any kind of lingering pain, Del Potro may just be able to make his next big breakthrough at this tournament and knock off one of the World's top 3 players.
Fourth Quarter
The final Quarter is where Rafael Nadal will reside and I think he will be more than happy that the likes of Fish, Del Potro and Tsonga have not been placed in his section. A quick look at his draw suggests the Spaniard should be too good for his first 3 opponents, including an Ivan Ljubicic who is definitely in the final couple of years of his career.
The 4th Round could see Nadal paired with a couple of players that are not the force of old in Nikolay Davydenko or David Nalbandian, but his most likely opponent will be John Isner. The big American doesn't have many matches under his belt this season, but his serve and groundstrokes should be well suited to this surface, and I think he will be too strong for the opponents he is likely to face in the early Rounds.
Isner will also feel he is more than capable of knocking off Rafael Nadal here after pushing him to 5 sets at the French Open last year and I would give him a shot in this game if he hasn't expended too much energy in the early Rounds. That was what done for Isner when he met Andy Murray in the 4th Round here in 2010, but I still think he could give Nadal plenty of issues.
The other seeded player for the Quarter Finals is Tomas Berdych and I think he has been given a kind draw to reach the 4th Round at a minimum. Kevin Anderson could be a dangerous 3rd Round opponent, but I expect the big Czech player to have too much consistency for Anderson and get through potentially in 4 sets.
It is hard to gauge who Berdych would meet in the 4th Round as there are some players that are out of form (Stanislas Wawrinka), inconsistent (Marcos Baghdatis), or not as good as a hard court as they are on a clay court (Nicolas Almagro). Wawrinka has beaten Berdych in the last 3 times they have played, but he has not been the same since becoming a father and I can't say I fully trust him to even get as far as the 4th Round.
I can see either Nadal, Isner or Berdych coming through this Quarter and reaching the Semi Final.
Semi Finals and Beyond
The Semi Finals, as far as I am concerned, could see a couple of fresher guys taking on players that have come through a couple of really tough Rounds, particularly when it comes to whoever Novak Djokovic gets to play.
It is hard to see anyone other than Djokovic going on to win this tournament and he will be the first player that I will keep on my side, placing a heavier load on the World Number 1's shoulders to retain his title.
On the other side of the draw, I am going to have a small interest on either Juan Martin Del Potro or Tomas Berdych at least making the Final by playing e/w on them. I like Del Potro's chances to take advantage of the ailing Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and it is a similar reasoning behind taking Tomas Berdych, who has been given a fairly kind draw before the Quarter Final.
Women's Tournament
First Quarter
This section of the draw is reserved for the World Number 1, Caroline Wozniacki, a player that anyone who has followed this blog for any time will know that I do not rate very highly. While Wozniacki is the Number 1 seed, the bigger stars in this section are surely the two Finalists from 2011, Kim Clijsters and Na Li.
Neither one of those Finalists are givens this season to reach the same stage simply because of injuries to Clijsters, while Li has struggled to deal with the expectations that come with being a Grand Slam Champion since winning at the French Open.
One player that could cause both Finalists a problem is Daniela Hantuchova, a Runner Up in the tournament at Brisbane to open the season and one who had some real success at Grand Slam level last season. Hantuchova is scheduled to meet Clijsters in the 3rd Round, if they both get there, and Li in the 4th Round so all 3 players could have a tough road just to get to a Quarter Final.
Wozniacki has been given a decent draw here and I don't expect too many issues before she is seeded to meet Jelena Jankovic in the 4th Round. However, the Serb former World Number 1 is not the same player of old and I would expect Wozniacki to move forward.
I don't know which of the 3 women I have highlighted from the bottom of this section will get through to the Semi Finals, but I think all 3 would be too strong if they got to meet Wozniacki at this stage, except for Hantuchova perhaps, as all would be a lot more battle-hardened. Kim Clijsters has said she is feeling very good at the moment, despite pulling out in Brisbane, and I would suggest she is still the one to beat in this section.
Second Quarter
The star in this section is the controversial Victoria Azarenka, a player that I find to be pretty good to watch and someone who could potentially win a Grand Slam this year if the cards fall right. She has been given a pretty decent draw, although with a couple of awkward looking early matches. I expect Azarenka to come through the opening 4 Rounds here, especially if she brings her form from Sydney into the tournament with her biggest threat being a 4th Round clash with Shuai Peng.
However, Azarenka leads the head to head 5-1, her only loss coming when she was forced to retire in the second set.
The bottom half of this Quarter has some decent players, led by Agnieska Radwanska and Francesca Schiavone, but I don't think either of these players will be capable of living with Azarenka if the latter is on form.
Radwanska has a tough opener against the American Bethanie Mattek-Sands and also a tough 3rd Round contest where she is seeded to meet Yanina Wickmayer. The Belgian player is an enigma that could cause plenty of problems for those in the bottom half of the section, but it all seems like it could open up for Azarenka to get through to another Semi Final at a Grand Slam.
Third Quarter
This is the Quarter that is dominated by the presence of Serena Williams, the American already accustomed to having a long lay-off and coming back to win this tournament. But don't think she is the only player in this part of the draw as there are some real threats in the form of Maria Sharapova, Sabine Lisicki and Vera Zvonareva to contend with.
Williams could face a tough test as soon as the 3rd Round thanks to her seeding, and she is set to meet Dominika Cibulkova at that stage if results go as they should. Williams also suffered a leg injury at a recent tournament in Brisbane, but has spoken about feeling better in the 10 days she has had to recover and I would expect her to beat a player that can struggle against the very best mentally and for physical power.
Zvonareva could be the next person in Williams way, or it could be Kaia Kenepi who won the tournament in Brisbane. I think an in-form Serena proves far too strong for either of those players and I would expect she would make the Quarter Finals if she is ready to play.
The bottom section of this Quarter has given Sharapova and Lisicki some problems to overcome- Sharapova has a tough 1st Round game with Gisela Dulko, but I expect the Russian can get through to the 4th Round if she wins that game.
Lisicki is likely to face the under-rated Svetlana Kuznetsova in the 3rd Round and that is never an easy task. With Lisicki having some injury issues, I think we could see a surprise here, and it could go a step further as Sharapova herself has not been at 100% for a while.
I think this section could quickly open up for Serena Williams, someone who is surely good to go if she has decided to take her place in the draw and one that has the beating of 90% of players even when she is not at her best herself.
Fourth Quarter
Petra Kvitova was an impressive winner at Wimbledon last year and she is the World Number 2 coming into this tournament and the favourite to win the event. Her style of play means she can take the racquet out of an opponents hands, but it also means that she can hurt herself if the groundstrokes are slightly off from normal.
Her biggest danger in this section before the Quarter Finals could be the up and coming Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who is a potential 4th Round opponent. Pavlyuchenkova has been steadily improving in the last 18 months, but could face a difficult game against Ana Ivanovic in the 3rd Round, a player she has yet to beat in her career.
There is one real threat at the top half of the draw in the form of home favourite, and reigning US Open Grand Slam Champion, Sam Stosur- she has had a similar problem as other first time winners of a Grand Slam in really struggling for form since winning at Flushing Meadows and it will be interesting to see how she deals with the expectation of the home crowd.
It will be interesting when she is seeded to meet Nadia Petrova in the 3rd Round, especially considering their epic at the US Open last September and that could be Stosur's undoing. Potentially facing Marion Bartoli will also not be an easy ask for Stosur in the 4th Round and I think it may be tough for her to replicate the form that took her all the way in New York.
While many will think Kvitova comes through this section, I think we could see the break-out performance of Anastasia Pavyluchenkova in this tournament and perhaps a surprise Semi Final berth.
Semi Final and Beyond
The Woman's draw looks to be dominated by those at the top of the market and I am not going to go too far away from those I think can win the tournament from the top half of the draw.
I think there are a lot of question marks over many of those in the bottom half of the draw, although I do think Serena Williams would be tough to stop if she is fighting fit. She could be given a chance to work herself into the tournament with the way the draw has panned out and I still think she is head and shoulders the best player in the World when she is fit to go.
Victoria Azarenka has really performed well here in the past although the heat has taken its toll on her. I think she is just about ready to make a real impact in a Grand Slam and perhaps go all the way and win it so I will have an interest in her to do so.
The other player I will keep on my side is Kim Clijsters as she has the pedigree of winning here and claims she is as healthy as she has been in months. Clijsters could be hard to stop at a double-digit price and I will keep her onside here too.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.38 Bodog (4 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro @ 17.00 Bet365 (0.5 Units E/W)
Tomas Berdych @ 51.00 Paddy Power (0.5 Units E/W)
Serena Williams @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka @ 7.00 Bodog (1 Unit)
Kim Clijsters @ 11.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
2011 Season: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 14 January 2012
NFL Divisional Round Play Offs (January 14-15)
I will post up all the plays from the Divisional Round of games taking place this week- personally I think we are going to see a lot of good games in this Round.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12976-Denver-Broncos-at-New-England-Patriots.htm)
New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I like the San Francisco 49ers to cover the spread at the very least tonight for the following reasons:
First, the New Orleans Saints are not the same team when you take them out of the Superdome and get them dealing with the elements outside.
Second, San Francisco will be looking for revenge after New Orleans destroyed them with blitzes in a pre-season game, something they have clearly not forgotten about.
Third, how about this for a statistic? Teams that have scored 40 points or more are just 3-18 against the spread in their next game.
The key for San Francisco will be trying to finish drives with TDs rather than FGs and also trying to create pressure on Drew Brees, just like St Louis did in the biggest surprise of the season as far as I am concerned.
I think the Saints can be got at Defensively, so I think the 49ers will keep this game close enough to cover, if not win outright.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12983-Houston-Texans-at-Baltimore-Ravens.htm)
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is easily the game of the weekend in my humble opinion and I like the Giants, after much consideration, to cover the spread in a shoot-out for the following reasons:
First, they are full of confidence right now after pushing the Packers all the way at home and they are playing with a bit of swagger having been in Play Off mode for the past two weeks (beating Dallas in Week 17 was essentially a Play Off game as the loser went home).
Second, the Giants have a front 4 that could at least pressure Aaron Rodgers and cause some problems for them, even if the Secondary can give up the big play.
Third, the Packers Defense is definitely susceptible to the big play and being passed on and I cannot see how they will stop Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz consistently enough to keep the Giants from scoring.
Fourth, the road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between the teams.
Fifth, Play Off teams are just 12-20 against the spread when coming in off a bye week (New England and San Francisco have that at 2-0 following their wins yesterday).
I am looking forward to seeing a high scoring game with the team that has the ball last being the one to win the game... I can't really see the Packers losing at home, but to give the Giants more than a TD looks too generous to me (famous last words?)
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants + 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12976-Denver-Broncos-at-New-England-Patriots.htm)
New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I like the San Francisco 49ers to cover the spread at the very least tonight for the following reasons:
First, the New Orleans Saints are not the same team when you take them out of the Superdome and get them dealing with the elements outside.
Second, San Francisco will be looking for revenge after New Orleans destroyed them with blitzes in a pre-season game, something they have clearly not forgotten about.
Third, how about this for a statistic? Teams that have scored 40 points or more are just 3-18 against the spread in their next game.
The key for San Francisco will be trying to finish drives with TDs rather than FGs and also trying to create pressure on Drew Brees, just like St Louis did in the biggest surprise of the season as far as I am concerned.
I think the Saints can be got at Defensively, so I think the 49ers will keep this game close enough to cover, if not win outright.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12983-Houston-Texans-at-Baltimore-Ravens.htm)
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is easily the game of the weekend in my humble opinion and I like the Giants, after much consideration, to cover the spread in a shoot-out for the following reasons:
First, they are full of confidence right now after pushing the Packers all the way at home and they are playing with a bit of swagger having been in Play Off mode for the past two weeks (beating Dallas in Week 17 was essentially a Play Off game as the loser went home).
Second, the Giants have a front 4 that could at least pressure Aaron Rodgers and cause some problems for them, even if the Secondary can give up the big play.
Third, the Packers Defense is definitely susceptible to the big play and being passed on and I cannot see how they will stop Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz consistently enough to keep the Giants from scoring.
Fourth, the road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between the teams.
Fifth, Play Off teams are just 12-20 against the spread when coming in off a bye week (New England and San Francisco have that at 2-0 following their wins yesterday).
I am looking forward to seeing a high scoring game with the team that has the ball last being the one to win the game... I can't really see the Packers losing at home, but to give the Giants more than a TD looks too generous to me (famous last words?)
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants + 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
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