December has not started as well as I had hoped and I have taken a couple of days off from the NBA Picks to get back on track.
I missed any picks from Sunday after the New York Knicks blew a big chance to knock off the Chicago Bulls on Saturday and I won't be making any picks from Monday this week either.
However I am putting the thread for the week's NBA games up now and will be adding Picks as the week progresses.
Monday 11th December
There are a few games scheduled for Monday but it is the case of having a watching brief for me as I look to get this month back on track. It has been a good start to the season for the NBA Picks, but nothing really appealed on Monday after what has been a rough opening to December.
Tuesday 12th December
LA Lakers @ New York Knicks Pick: Time restrictions means I will say a few words here for this one NBA Pick from the Tuesday offerings.
The Knicks have been so much better at home than on the road and they will be looking to put another win on the board during a period where so many of their games will have to be played away from Madison Square Garden. They have the shooting to trouble the LA Lakers who will be excited about playing here, but may be a little over-rated having won back to back games.
New York are 3-0 against the spread when favoured by less than 3 points and the superior three point Defensive work may just be enough for the Knicks to win this one and cover this number.
Wednesday 13th December
I would not have been impressed if the LA Lakers had scored their wide open three point attempt when inbounding the ball at 0.6 seconds left.
Down by 4 points, it made absolutely no sense for Luke Walton to call a timeout, and then have his players attempt that shot with the game over. Well it would have made sense in Vegas when the missed shot was the difference between the Knicks and the Lakers covering the number that had been set.
Thankfully the shot didn't go down, but I do wonder what Walton was thinking as there was never going to be the time to get the two possessions the Lakers needed. In usual circumstances the Kristaps Porzingis two free throws ice the game and the Lakers run out the clock themselves, but this was just a strange decision from Walton all around.
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets Pick: There is no doubting that this is a big number for the Houston Rockets to cover when they host the Charlotte Hornets and look to keep their winning run going. They have blown out the Hornets twice in a row on the road, including earlier this season, but this is a big enough number for Charlotte to secure a backdoor cover at the very worst.
The Rockets also have the San Antonio Spurs next up on deck in a big Western Conference game so there is reason to believe they may overlook the Hornets.
However, I am going to back the Rockets to win because they are clearly in good form and won't want to go into the Spurs game off a loss. They are laying the hammer down Offensively and I am not sure Charlotte have the talent to stay with them even off a good looking win at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Charlotte return home after this game and they have a couple of key injuries which may make it difficult for the Hornets to challenge the Rockets on the glass like they would like. They haven't much enjoyed playing in Houston either with a 3-12-1 record against the spread in the last sixteen games here and the Rockets have a strong 4-1 record against the spread when being favoured by between 10 and 13.5 points this season.
It won't be easy, but if Houston continue finding their range from the three point arc, I do think they can win and cover here.
Thursday 14th December
Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Wednesday was a disappointment with the one NBA Pick missing out by a single point from the cover. Houston were up by 19 points with a little over two minutes remaining which really did stick in the craw, but I got a little lucky with the first Pick this week.
Hopefully Thursday will be better.
The first Pick I have is going with the Detroit Pistons to snap their recent losing run with a trip to Atlanta which looks to be coming at the right time for the visitors. The Hawks are off a long road trip and are making one stop at home before heading to the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday and they have been struggling for the majority of the season.
Of course the Pistons are short of confidence at the moment, but I would expect them to have every chance of getting back on track after some inefficient shooting days in recent games. This Hawks Defensive unit is not one of the stronger ones out there and I would expect the Pistons to have a much stronger day all around.
The Pistons are 5-3 against the spread when favoured by 5 or less points this season and Atlanta are 1-4 against the spread when given up to 5 points as the underdog. Detroit already hold a win over Atlanta at home and they have been a strong road team when it comes to the window and I will look for them to snap a negative run ahead of a big game with the Indiana Pacers on Friday.
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Knicks may have won back to back games, but both were played at Madison Square Garden and there is no denying how much weaker New York have been on their travels. Granted this is not a long trip for them as they go to the Brooklyn Nets, but I also think it is tough to back the Knicks to win when they have been so inconsistent on their travels.
This is a revenge spot for the Nets who have lost at MSG back in October, but who have won three of their last four games going into this one. Being a favourite is a weird position for the Nets, but Brooklyn are 4-0 against the spread as the favourite of less than 3 points this season which makes it easier to want to back them.
The Nets are playing the slightly better Defense at the moment and they have the ability to challenge New York on the boards and I think that is a good enough reason to back them here. Adding the New York factor of being on the road helps especially when the Knicks are just 1-2 against the spread playing a team with a losing record.
The home team is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten in this series and the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six. The Nets have been a covering machine in home games recently compared with the Knicks who have had difficulties covering on the road and I will back the narrow home favourite to win this one too.
MY PICKS: 12/12 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
13/12 Houston Rockets - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
14/12 Detroit Pistons - 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/12 Brooklyn Nets - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
December 11-17 Update: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
December 1-10 Final: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Showing posts with label December. Show all posts
Showing posts with label December. Show all posts
Monday, 11 December 2017
Friday, 1 December 2017
NBA Picks December 2017 (December 1-10)
The first two months of the NBA season have been solid enough for the picks and now we move into December when you do see the difference between the top teams and those who are likely to be involved in the trade market to improve for the 2018/19 season.
There have been a number of stories in the NBA which have made headlines despite going up against the NFL and the last weeks of the College Football regular season. The firing of David Fizdale as Head Coach of the Memphis Grizzlies was perhaps the biggest with many around the NBA expressing their surprise at the decision.
It was perhaps less of a surprise when the decision essentially came down to Fizdale or Marc Gasol/Mike Conley and I think the Grizzlies had to make the move.
Fizdale will be ok, but the Memphis Grizzlies need to get things turned around this month or risk becoming a team taking a lot of calls for their top talent.
This thread is going to cover the opening week of the December NBA games and then the threads will be December 11-17, December 18-23, December 25-31 to cover the rest of the month.
Hopefully it will be another solid month for the Picks to put the season totals in a very good position in time for the turn of the year.
Friday 1st December
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards Pick: It is something of a surprise to see the Detroit Pistons as a road favourite at the Washington Wizards, but that says a lot about the state of the two teams going into this Friday contest. While the Pistons look settled and have won three in a row since their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Washington Wizards are banged up to say the least.
It looks like the Wizards will be definitely without John Wall, but his back court partner Bradley Beal is questionable and that is not good news for a team who have lost five of their last seven. The Wizards are making this quick pit stop back at home but they have also lost their last couple of games here and it looks a tough spot for them.
With their top names you would think Washington would match up well with Detroit but the absence of Wall and potentially Beal will be very difficult to overcome. That is especially the case with how efficient Detroit have been shooting the ball and they also have the size to out-battle the Wizards on the boards to give themselves every chance of winning here.
The only concern for the Pistons has to be how well Washington have defended the three point shot as that has been where Detroit have been making hay recently. However I do think Wall and Beal both being out of contention to play would be a huge blow to those Defensive rotations and I like the Pistons here.
Detroit have gone 5-0 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record this season and they have been covering at a high rate on the road. A lot of the times that has been as the underdog, so the change in situation is another worry, although I expect Detroit to battle past that with the way they have been playing.
The Pistons may only be 2-6 against the spread in the last eight against Washington, but the Wizards might be short-handed here and I like the Pistons to snap that trend. The Wizards have not been that good against the spread when playing at home and I will look for Detroit to make some big plays in the Fourth Quarter which helps them get past another top name in the NBA.
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies battled hard but ultimately came up short against the San Antonio Spurs a couple of days ago in Texas to drop their ninth game in a row. It is difficult to see where the Grizzlies are going to snap the run of losses with another game against San Antonio and then a trip to Cleveland to come in the next two days.
With the injuries on the roster it has been very difficult for Memphis to get things turned around, although the fallout between David Fizdale and Marc Gasol have not helped at all. Now the Grizzlies have to find a new identification with what they want to do on the court and I think they may have to settle for another loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs are still waiting for Kahwi Leonard to return from an injury and the wait is supposed to end in the next couple of weeks. However the Spurs have still found a way to win games which isn't a big surprise and three straight wins have given them some momentum going forward.
San Antonio have played some improved Defense and that has sparked their performances, while I do expect to see them find a way to slow down Memphis for the second time in three days. The Grizzlies have been struggling for consistency on the Offensive side of the court, and the new style that has been implemented have not helped Grind City on the Defensive side.
The Spurs should also have the better of Memphis on the boards and adding those factors together looks like San Antonio will be able to cover this number on the road.
The concern has to be that San Antonio have not played as well on the road when it comes to their spread numbers and they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five in Memphis. However the Memphis Grizzlies numbers have not been good for some time when it comes to the spread and I think San Antonio will find a way to win this by around the same number as they did when hosting Memphis a couple of days ago.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Russell Westbrook looks like he will overcome any issue with his hand to take his place in the line up for this Friday night game, but I think the Minnesota Timberwolves can be chanced with the points to at least keep this close.
Neither them or the Oklahoma City Thunder have been in any kind of consistent form, but the Timberwolves definitely look the more settled of the two teams.
The Thunder have had issues getting on the same page with the look line up and that has seen the Offensive side of the court really have problems to find the efficiency they would like. Of course they are playing with revenge having lost to the Timberwolves in October, but this is a team who have not covered when set as the favourite in their last five games in that situation.
Minnesota won outright as the underdog in New Orleans last time out and they should have enough to expose some of the holes in the Oklahoma City Defense. With the size to also challenge them on the boards, I like the Timberwolves to keep this one close enough for the cover.
The underdog has covered in the last four in this series and Oklahoma City are 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve against teams from the Western Conference. I will look for Minnesota to keep both trends going and I will take the points here.
Monday 4th December
I didn't have the time to research the NBA Picks as I would have liked over the weekend and so I decided to have a couple of days off from them. Friday turned out to be a decent day with a positive start to the month, and hopefully the one pick from Monday can put another winner on the board.
Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: Gregg Popovich is not impressed with the schedule the San Antonio Spurs have in front of them and has already decided that he needs to make sure players are kept fresh. That meant he rested some of the biggest names on the San Antonio roster on Sunday evening when travelling to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it was no real surprise the Spurs came up short in that game.
Back at home on Monday should mean the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker are back in the rotation for a team playing a third game in four days. However they are well rested having not even travelled to Oklahoma City on Sunday and San Antonio are the favourites when they face the Detroit Pistons.
A strong start to the season has given the Pistons plenty of confidence, but they have lost back to back games at Washington and Philadelphia which has bothered Stan Van Gundy. In both games Detroit were in a decent position before falling apart and Van Gundy will know that is not going to be good enough for a team who have to make the Play Offs in the Eastern Conference this season.
This one should be a decent game, but I do give the edge to the Spurs who have focused on this game more than the trip to Oklahoma City. Defensively the Spurs continue to play at a high level and that can be the difference maker in a game where both teams have shot the ball efficiently, but the Spurs look to have the edge on the other side of the court.
San Antonio also have the size to challenge a Detroit team who have been very good on the glass for much of the season. Being able to prevent those second chance points can be a huge benefit for the Spurs and I do like them here when you consider how well they have played at home.
The Spurs are 9-3 against the spread at home this season and they are 6-1 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points so far. As well as Detroit have played as the underdog, they are 1-3 against the spread when given less than 5 points as a start while the Pistons have not covered in their last five games against San Antonio.
I can imagine this game will be close and Detroit have to be respected for how they have played against the better teams in the NBA on the road. However this doesn't feel like enough points for them to be given and I will back the Spurs to cover.
Wednesday 6th December
There wasn't anything of interest on Tuesday, but I have a couple of picks from Wednesday with short analysis below.
Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: I expect the Cleveland Cavaliers to continue having their Offensive success in this one, but a young Sacramento Kings team can also come also come out swinging.
The Kings have been efficient from the field and are shooting the three ball well enough to have success against a Cavaliers team who aren't always focused when playing some of the weaker teams in the NBA.
With the chance to battle on the boards, I will be looking for Sacramento to contribute to a high-scoring game and I will back the over.
Golden State Warriors @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: Losing Steph Curry from any team in the NBA would be a blow, but the Golden State Warriors look like they have the depth to make up for the absence of the All-Star. Draymond Green may also miss out on Wednesday, but I still like the Warriors here.
Charlotte have to be respected having got Kemba Walker back up and running, but there is still room for improvement from a shooting efficiency point of view. That will be tested by the Golden State Warriors and I think the absence of Curry will just get the rest of the roster playing a little harder to prove they can win without one of their star players.
The Warriors have dominated the recent series and I will back them to cover.
Thursday 7th December
Brooklyn Nets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: This NBA game is being played in Mexico City where the Brooklyn Nets will be 'hosting' two games this week. In January the NBA International Series will head over to London as they join the NFL in trying to expand the reaches of the League.
It is the Oklahoma City Thunder who get the first opportunity to play against the Brooklyn Nets and they are beginning to pick up some momentum after early difficulties with the new 'Big Three' being put together. Now it feels like Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George are beginning to get a little more comfortable playing with one another and the Thunder could start producing more consistency going forward.
They have won three in a row, although it has to be pointed out that the Thunder continue to be over-rated by the oddsmakers and so they have not covered in six straight games. The Thunder have also been a poor favourite to side with, but I think they have a chance to do better going forward and the teams they have faced in recent weeks have been far superior to the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooklyn have won three of their last five games which will give them confidence, but they still have some real Defensive issues which have to be of concern. Going up against this Thunder line up, those issues are likely to be more prevalent and I do think Oklahoma City can underline how they are beginning to find the groove Offensively.
It won't be a one-sided game as Brooklyn have shown they can score plenty of points too and their strength from the three point line can be dangerous against any team they face. The Nets also have the size to battle on the boards with the Thunder and that shooting ability will make them a threat to the Thunder if they are not at full speed.
With the game being played in Mexico City, I can see these two teams really putting an entertaining affair together and looking for the total points to be surpassed looks the call. The over has dominated in recent games between the Nets and the Thunder and I will look for that trend to continue in this meeting.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Houston Rockets are showing why so many have picked them as a dark horse in the Western Conference to reach the NBA Finals. The return of Chris Paul has been huge for the Rockets who have won seven straight games, but the Rockets had been strong even when the All-Star had been out of action.
Since Paul's return the Houston Rockets have been dominant on both sides of the court and that has seen them winning games by large margins. Each of their last seven wins have come by double digits and it is going to be a real challenge for the Utah Jazz to slow them down.
Utah have played better than expected this season after losing Gordon Hayward, and the Jazz had won six in a row before the defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out. That has kept the Jazz above 0.500 and they are still playing well Defensively which makes them a threat, but they are going to be challenged by how well Houston have moved the ball Offensively and found their shots.
That is going to be the key to this entire game especially as Utah have shot the ball efficiently enough themselves. If Houston are shooting the ball well enough, it will still be a challenge for Utah to keep up simply with how well Houston have been playing on the Defensive side of the court, but I do think it will be close going into the Fourth Quarter.
At that point the Houston superiority should begin to show as the Rockets are also a little fresher with this being the third game in four days for the Jazz.
Utah are only 2-3 against the spread this season when given 5 or more points as the underdog while they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine when given one day of rest between games.
Houston are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight when given three or more days rest between games and they have covered in their last six on the road. This is the biggest test they would have had in recent road games, but I do like the Houston Rockets to find the big shots in the Fourth Quarter to pull away for the cover here.
Friday 8th December
It has been a bit of a frustrating start to the month with a couple of the picks on the over/under market letting me down. In both games there was a really slow shooting start which put the chances of the 'over' out of contention before things really got going which is more of a frustration than anything else.
I am hoping to get this turned around sooner rather than later.
Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The absence of Steph Curry may have been a problem for the Golden State Warriors in past years, but this really does feel like Kevin Durant's team and it was Durant who helped lead the Warriors past the Charlotte Hornets a couple of nights ago. He will likely have Draymond Green back to support him as the Warriors conclude a road trip in which they are looking to go unbeaten.
Klay Thompson was speaking for me when he said that it can be tough for a team to play a final road game on a long trip as they begin to look forward to going home. That is a tough spot for the Golden State Warriors, but I think Thompson's comments alleviates any concern for a sub-par effort while the Detroit Pistons have been one of the stronger teams in the opening weeks of the NBA season to keep the Warriors focused.
There is revenge on the mind too as Golden State were beaten at home by the Pistons earlier this season.
The Pistons are returning home after a difficult four game road trip in which time they were beaten four times, while Detroit have something to prove themselves after recently being blown out at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have been better at home but this is still a game in which the Pistons need to show the rest of the NBA that they are for real.
It won't be an easy test for the Golden State Warriors, but they have been shooting the ball so well of late and they can hurt the Detroit Pistons. With Green back, the Defensive shape should be back to its best and I just think the Warriors are superior at both ends of the court and can produce one more big effort on the road.
The struggles Detroit have had on the boards in recent games has been a concern for Stan Van Gundy and I think the Warriors can have success there too which makes it very hard to see them losing this game. The revenge factor for a rare home loss just adds to the motivation for a team who are trying to sweep their recent road trip.
While Detroit have some strong numbers against the spread, the Golden State Warriors are 16-6 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record at home. Enough factors are pointing towards the Warriors that I will lay the points with them as the road favourite.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: A strong run has seen Cleveland win twelve games in a row and the Cavaliers will be looking for revenge after being beaten at home by the Indiana Pacers earlier this season. LeBron James has been proving how big he can be in the clutch in some of the recent wins, but the Cavaliers have tended to play better on the road than at home and have definitely been more dominant winners on the road during this run.
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the surprise teams of the early part of the NBA season and will be expecting to kick on and make the Play Offs out of the weaker Eastern Conference. They will be looking for more dominance at home, but the Pacers have won three in a row here since their home defeat to the Boston Celtics.
However there is something for the Pacers to prove in this game and that is that they can compete with the top teams in the NBA. They have won four and lost three of their last seven games, but all three losses have come against teams at the very top of the NBA and none of the wins have been at that level.
Indiana should have their chances against the Cleveland Cavaliers who have lost some of their Defensive intensity in the last few games. With the way the Pacers have been shooting the ball they should be able to make their plays in this one, but the bigger concern will be trying to shut down a Cleveland team who are shooting from over 50% from the field in recent games.
Cleveland have also been the superior team on the boards and Indiana could be missing Myles Turner which would further hinder them here. That should mean the Cavaliers have every chance to pull away in the Fourth Quarter and win this game with a cover of the number and I like them doing that with revenge for a home loss on the minds.
The Cavaliers don't have a great recent record against Indiana, but the road team is 6-0 against the spread in the last six in this series. Cleveland have also been really strong when it comes to facing teams on the road who have a winning record and I am going to back Cleveland to win and cover the spread here.
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It has been a miserable first third of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies and there are very few signs that things will improve any time soon. The Grizzlies have a new voice to listen to in the locker room, but the loss of Mike Conley to an injury is a bitter blow for a team who have been struggling Offensively and who have lost their identity Defensively.
They host a Toronto Raptors team who are hoping to find some consistency in their play, but who have won four in a row to move eight games above 0.500. No one in the Toronto camp will be getting too carried away by a good run when they haven't really played any team that can be considered amongst the best in the NBA.
This is the start of a Western Conference road trip for the Raptors who should be rested and ready to go. It is also a good position for the Raptors to begin that road trip with the chance for a confidence boosting win as they face the struggling Memphis Grizzlies, but the concern has to be that Toronto are just 6-6 on the road this season.
Toronto should have every chance to open with a win as they have been very efficient shooting the ball and can take advantage of the Memphis struggles. The Raptors should have enough open looks to put the pressure on the Grizzlies, while the latter have not been as fluent Offensively and are facing a decent Defensive unit.
The Grizzlies can keep things competitive with their recent three point shooting, but it has been tough sledging for them. The real concern has to be the struggles on the boards which has meant teams have been able to earn second chance opportunities and Toronto certainly have the size to dominate the rebounding numbers.
I do like the Raptors here and this is a team who have been strong when favoured by 6 points or more where they are 7-4 against the spread this season. The Raptors are also 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in this series.
Memphis are also just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine home games and I will look for the road favourite to cover in a third game on Friday evening.
Saturday 9th December
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: It has been a night and day situation for the New York Knicks when they have played at home and on the road. At home the Knicks have been very good, but they have been poor on the road, although I do think they have every chance of earning a rare road win here.
The Chicago Bulls are off a win, but that came on Friday night and they needed to get through Overtime to upset the Charlotte Hornets. Now they have to travel home and there has to be some emotional let down against the New York Knicks especially with the Bulls facing the Boston Celtics at home next.
New York are the favourites and missing Tim Hardaway Jr, but I think they can win and cover on the road on Saturday evening.
MY PICKS: 01/12 Detroit Pistons - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
01/12 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
01/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
04/12 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
06/12 Cleveland Cavaliers-Sacramento Kings Over 209 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/12 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
07/12 Brooklyn Nets-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 213.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
07/12 Houston Rockets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/12 Golden State Warriors - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/12 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/12 Toronto Raptors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
09/12 New York Knicks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
December 1-9 Update: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)
November Final: 26-15, + 8.74 Units (41 Units Staked, + 21.32% Yield)
October Final: 12-10, + 1.05 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.77% Yield)
Season 2017/18 Update: 38-25, + 9.79 Units (63 Units Staked, + 15.54% Yield)
There have been a number of stories in the NBA which have made headlines despite going up against the NFL and the last weeks of the College Football regular season. The firing of David Fizdale as Head Coach of the Memphis Grizzlies was perhaps the biggest with many around the NBA expressing their surprise at the decision.
It was perhaps less of a surprise when the decision essentially came down to Fizdale or Marc Gasol/Mike Conley and I think the Grizzlies had to make the move.
Fizdale will be ok, but the Memphis Grizzlies need to get things turned around this month or risk becoming a team taking a lot of calls for their top talent.
This thread is going to cover the opening week of the December NBA games and then the threads will be December 11-17, December 18-23, December 25-31 to cover the rest of the month.
Hopefully it will be another solid month for the Picks to put the season totals in a very good position in time for the turn of the year.
Friday 1st December
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards Pick: It is something of a surprise to see the Detroit Pistons as a road favourite at the Washington Wizards, but that says a lot about the state of the two teams going into this Friday contest. While the Pistons look settled and have won three in a row since their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Washington Wizards are banged up to say the least.
It looks like the Wizards will be definitely without John Wall, but his back court partner Bradley Beal is questionable and that is not good news for a team who have lost five of their last seven. The Wizards are making this quick pit stop back at home but they have also lost their last couple of games here and it looks a tough spot for them.
With their top names you would think Washington would match up well with Detroit but the absence of Wall and potentially Beal will be very difficult to overcome. That is especially the case with how efficient Detroit have been shooting the ball and they also have the size to out-battle the Wizards on the boards to give themselves every chance of winning here.
The only concern for the Pistons has to be how well Washington have defended the three point shot as that has been where Detroit have been making hay recently. However I do think Wall and Beal both being out of contention to play would be a huge blow to those Defensive rotations and I like the Pistons here.
Detroit have gone 5-0 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record this season and they have been covering at a high rate on the road. A lot of the times that has been as the underdog, so the change in situation is another worry, although I expect Detroit to battle past that with the way they have been playing.
The Pistons may only be 2-6 against the spread in the last eight against Washington, but the Wizards might be short-handed here and I like the Pistons to snap that trend. The Wizards have not been that good against the spread when playing at home and I will look for Detroit to make some big plays in the Fourth Quarter which helps them get past another top name in the NBA.
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies battled hard but ultimately came up short against the San Antonio Spurs a couple of days ago in Texas to drop their ninth game in a row. It is difficult to see where the Grizzlies are going to snap the run of losses with another game against San Antonio and then a trip to Cleveland to come in the next two days.
With the injuries on the roster it has been very difficult for Memphis to get things turned around, although the fallout between David Fizdale and Marc Gasol have not helped at all. Now the Grizzlies have to find a new identification with what they want to do on the court and I think they may have to settle for another loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs are still waiting for Kahwi Leonard to return from an injury and the wait is supposed to end in the next couple of weeks. However the Spurs have still found a way to win games which isn't a big surprise and three straight wins have given them some momentum going forward.
San Antonio have played some improved Defense and that has sparked their performances, while I do expect to see them find a way to slow down Memphis for the second time in three days. The Grizzlies have been struggling for consistency on the Offensive side of the court, and the new style that has been implemented have not helped Grind City on the Defensive side.
The Spurs should also have the better of Memphis on the boards and adding those factors together looks like San Antonio will be able to cover this number on the road.
The concern has to be that San Antonio have not played as well on the road when it comes to their spread numbers and they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five in Memphis. However the Memphis Grizzlies numbers have not been good for some time when it comes to the spread and I think San Antonio will find a way to win this by around the same number as they did when hosting Memphis a couple of days ago.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Russell Westbrook looks like he will overcome any issue with his hand to take his place in the line up for this Friday night game, but I think the Minnesota Timberwolves can be chanced with the points to at least keep this close.
Neither them or the Oklahoma City Thunder have been in any kind of consistent form, but the Timberwolves definitely look the more settled of the two teams.
The Thunder have had issues getting on the same page with the look line up and that has seen the Offensive side of the court really have problems to find the efficiency they would like. Of course they are playing with revenge having lost to the Timberwolves in October, but this is a team who have not covered when set as the favourite in their last five games in that situation.
Minnesota won outright as the underdog in New Orleans last time out and they should have enough to expose some of the holes in the Oklahoma City Defense. With the size to also challenge them on the boards, I like the Timberwolves to keep this one close enough for the cover.
The underdog has covered in the last four in this series and Oklahoma City are 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve against teams from the Western Conference. I will look for Minnesota to keep both trends going and I will take the points here.
Monday 4th December
I didn't have the time to research the NBA Picks as I would have liked over the weekend and so I decided to have a couple of days off from them. Friday turned out to be a decent day with a positive start to the month, and hopefully the one pick from Monday can put another winner on the board.
Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: Gregg Popovich is not impressed with the schedule the San Antonio Spurs have in front of them and has already decided that he needs to make sure players are kept fresh. That meant he rested some of the biggest names on the San Antonio roster on Sunday evening when travelling to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it was no real surprise the Spurs came up short in that game.
Back at home on Monday should mean the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker are back in the rotation for a team playing a third game in four days. However they are well rested having not even travelled to Oklahoma City on Sunday and San Antonio are the favourites when they face the Detroit Pistons.
A strong start to the season has given the Pistons plenty of confidence, but they have lost back to back games at Washington and Philadelphia which has bothered Stan Van Gundy. In both games Detroit were in a decent position before falling apart and Van Gundy will know that is not going to be good enough for a team who have to make the Play Offs in the Eastern Conference this season.
This one should be a decent game, but I do give the edge to the Spurs who have focused on this game more than the trip to Oklahoma City. Defensively the Spurs continue to play at a high level and that can be the difference maker in a game where both teams have shot the ball efficiently, but the Spurs look to have the edge on the other side of the court.
San Antonio also have the size to challenge a Detroit team who have been very good on the glass for much of the season. Being able to prevent those second chance points can be a huge benefit for the Spurs and I do like them here when you consider how well they have played at home.
The Spurs are 9-3 against the spread at home this season and they are 6-1 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points so far. As well as Detroit have played as the underdog, they are 1-3 against the spread when given less than 5 points as a start while the Pistons have not covered in their last five games against San Antonio.
I can imagine this game will be close and Detroit have to be respected for how they have played against the better teams in the NBA on the road. However this doesn't feel like enough points for them to be given and I will back the Spurs to cover.
Wednesday 6th December
There wasn't anything of interest on Tuesday, but I have a couple of picks from Wednesday with short analysis below.
Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: I expect the Cleveland Cavaliers to continue having their Offensive success in this one, but a young Sacramento Kings team can also come also come out swinging.
The Kings have been efficient from the field and are shooting the three ball well enough to have success against a Cavaliers team who aren't always focused when playing some of the weaker teams in the NBA.
With the chance to battle on the boards, I will be looking for Sacramento to contribute to a high-scoring game and I will back the over.
Golden State Warriors @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: Losing Steph Curry from any team in the NBA would be a blow, but the Golden State Warriors look like they have the depth to make up for the absence of the All-Star. Draymond Green may also miss out on Wednesday, but I still like the Warriors here.
Charlotte have to be respected having got Kemba Walker back up and running, but there is still room for improvement from a shooting efficiency point of view. That will be tested by the Golden State Warriors and I think the absence of Curry will just get the rest of the roster playing a little harder to prove they can win without one of their star players.
The Warriors have dominated the recent series and I will back them to cover.
Thursday 7th December
Brooklyn Nets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: This NBA game is being played in Mexico City where the Brooklyn Nets will be 'hosting' two games this week. In January the NBA International Series will head over to London as they join the NFL in trying to expand the reaches of the League.
It is the Oklahoma City Thunder who get the first opportunity to play against the Brooklyn Nets and they are beginning to pick up some momentum after early difficulties with the new 'Big Three' being put together. Now it feels like Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George are beginning to get a little more comfortable playing with one another and the Thunder could start producing more consistency going forward.
They have won three in a row, although it has to be pointed out that the Thunder continue to be over-rated by the oddsmakers and so they have not covered in six straight games. The Thunder have also been a poor favourite to side with, but I think they have a chance to do better going forward and the teams they have faced in recent weeks have been far superior to the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooklyn have won three of their last five games which will give them confidence, but they still have some real Defensive issues which have to be of concern. Going up against this Thunder line up, those issues are likely to be more prevalent and I do think Oklahoma City can underline how they are beginning to find the groove Offensively.
It won't be a one-sided game as Brooklyn have shown they can score plenty of points too and their strength from the three point line can be dangerous against any team they face. The Nets also have the size to battle on the boards with the Thunder and that shooting ability will make them a threat to the Thunder if they are not at full speed.
With the game being played in Mexico City, I can see these two teams really putting an entertaining affair together and looking for the total points to be surpassed looks the call. The over has dominated in recent games between the Nets and the Thunder and I will look for that trend to continue in this meeting.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Houston Rockets are showing why so many have picked them as a dark horse in the Western Conference to reach the NBA Finals. The return of Chris Paul has been huge for the Rockets who have won seven straight games, but the Rockets had been strong even when the All-Star had been out of action.
Since Paul's return the Houston Rockets have been dominant on both sides of the court and that has seen them winning games by large margins. Each of their last seven wins have come by double digits and it is going to be a real challenge for the Utah Jazz to slow them down.
Utah have played better than expected this season after losing Gordon Hayward, and the Jazz had won six in a row before the defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out. That has kept the Jazz above 0.500 and they are still playing well Defensively which makes them a threat, but they are going to be challenged by how well Houston have moved the ball Offensively and found their shots.
That is going to be the key to this entire game especially as Utah have shot the ball efficiently enough themselves. If Houston are shooting the ball well enough, it will still be a challenge for Utah to keep up simply with how well Houston have been playing on the Defensive side of the court, but I do think it will be close going into the Fourth Quarter.
At that point the Houston superiority should begin to show as the Rockets are also a little fresher with this being the third game in four days for the Jazz.
Utah are only 2-3 against the spread this season when given 5 or more points as the underdog while they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine when given one day of rest between games.
Houston are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight when given three or more days rest between games and they have covered in their last six on the road. This is the biggest test they would have had in recent road games, but I do like the Houston Rockets to find the big shots in the Fourth Quarter to pull away for the cover here.
Friday 8th December
It has been a bit of a frustrating start to the month with a couple of the picks on the over/under market letting me down. In both games there was a really slow shooting start which put the chances of the 'over' out of contention before things really got going which is more of a frustration than anything else.
I am hoping to get this turned around sooner rather than later.
Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The absence of Steph Curry may have been a problem for the Golden State Warriors in past years, but this really does feel like Kevin Durant's team and it was Durant who helped lead the Warriors past the Charlotte Hornets a couple of nights ago. He will likely have Draymond Green back to support him as the Warriors conclude a road trip in which they are looking to go unbeaten.
Klay Thompson was speaking for me when he said that it can be tough for a team to play a final road game on a long trip as they begin to look forward to going home. That is a tough spot for the Golden State Warriors, but I think Thompson's comments alleviates any concern for a sub-par effort while the Detroit Pistons have been one of the stronger teams in the opening weeks of the NBA season to keep the Warriors focused.
There is revenge on the mind too as Golden State were beaten at home by the Pistons earlier this season.
The Pistons are returning home after a difficult four game road trip in which time they were beaten four times, while Detroit have something to prove themselves after recently being blown out at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have been better at home but this is still a game in which the Pistons need to show the rest of the NBA that they are for real.
It won't be an easy test for the Golden State Warriors, but they have been shooting the ball so well of late and they can hurt the Detroit Pistons. With Green back, the Defensive shape should be back to its best and I just think the Warriors are superior at both ends of the court and can produce one more big effort on the road.
The struggles Detroit have had on the boards in recent games has been a concern for Stan Van Gundy and I think the Warriors can have success there too which makes it very hard to see them losing this game. The revenge factor for a rare home loss just adds to the motivation for a team who are trying to sweep their recent road trip.
While Detroit have some strong numbers against the spread, the Golden State Warriors are 16-6 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record at home. Enough factors are pointing towards the Warriors that I will lay the points with them as the road favourite.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: A strong run has seen Cleveland win twelve games in a row and the Cavaliers will be looking for revenge after being beaten at home by the Indiana Pacers earlier this season. LeBron James has been proving how big he can be in the clutch in some of the recent wins, but the Cavaliers have tended to play better on the road than at home and have definitely been more dominant winners on the road during this run.
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the surprise teams of the early part of the NBA season and will be expecting to kick on and make the Play Offs out of the weaker Eastern Conference. They will be looking for more dominance at home, but the Pacers have won three in a row here since their home defeat to the Boston Celtics.
However there is something for the Pacers to prove in this game and that is that they can compete with the top teams in the NBA. They have won four and lost three of their last seven games, but all three losses have come against teams at the very top of the NBA and none of the wins have been at that level.
Indiana should have their chances against the Cleveland Cavaliers who have lost some of their Defensive intensity in the last few games. With the way the Pacers have been shooting the ball they should be able to make their plays in this one, but the bigger concern will be trying to shut down a Cleveland team who are shooting from over 50% from the field in recent games.
Cleveland have also been the superior team on the boards and Indiana could be missing Myles Turner which would further hinder them here. That should mean the Cavaliers have every chance to pull away in the Fourth Quarter and win this game with a cover of the number and I like them doing that with revenge for a home loss on the minds.
The Cavaliers don't have a great recent record against Indiana, but the road team is 6-0 against the spread in the last six in this series. Cleveland have also been really strong when it comes to facing teams on the road who have a winning record and I am going to back Cleveland to win and cover the spread here.
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It has been a miserable first third of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies and there are very few signs that things will improve any time soon. The Grizzlies have a new voice to listen to in the locker room, but the loss of Mike Conley to an injury is a bitter blow for a team who have been struggling Offensively and who have lost their identity Defensively.
They host a Toronto Raptors team who are hoping to find some consistency in their play, but who have won four in a row to move eight games above 0.500. No one in the Toronto camp will be getting too carried away by a good run when they haven't really played any team that can be considered amongst the best in the NBA.
This is the start of a Western Conference road trip for the Raptors who should be rested and ready to go. It is also a good position for the Raptors to begin that road trip with the chance for a confidence boosting win as they face the struggling Memphis Grizzlies, but the concern has to be that Toronto are just 6-6 on the road this season.
Toronto should have every chance to open with a win as they have been very efficient shooting the ball and can take advantage of the Memphis struggles. The Raptors should have enough open looks to put the pressure on the Grizzlies, while the latter have not been as fluent Offensively and are facing a decent Defensive unit.
The Grizzlies can keep things competitive with their recent three point shooting, but it has been tough sledging for them. The real concern has to be the struggles on the boards which has meant teams have been able to earn second chance opportunities and Toronto certainly have the size to dominate the rebounding numbers.
I do like the Raptors here and this is a team who have been strong when favoured by 6 points or more where they are 7-4 against the spread this season. The Raptors are also 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in this series.
Memphis are also just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine home games and I will look for the road favourite to cover in a third game on Friday evening.
Saturday 9th December
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: It has been a night and day situation for the New York Knicks when they have played at home and on the road. At home the Knicks have been very good, but they have been poor on the road, although I do think they have every chance of earning a rare road win here.
The Chicago Bulls are off a win, but that came on Friday night and they needed to get through Overtime to upset the Charlotte Hornets. Now they have to travel home and there has to be some emotional let down against the New York Knicks especially with the Bulls facing the Boston Celtics at home next.
New York are the favourites and missing Tim Hardaway Jr, but I think they can win and cover on the road on Saturday evening.
MY PICKS: 01/12 Detroit Pistons - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
01/12 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
01/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
04/12 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
06/12 Cleveland Cavaliers-Sacramento Kings Over 209 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/12 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
07/12 Brooklyn Nets-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 213.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
07/12 Houston Rockets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/12 Golden State Warriors - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/12 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/12 Toronto Raptors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
09/12 New York Knicks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
December 1-9 Update: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)
November Final: 26-15, + 8.74 Units (41 Units Staked, + 21.32% Yield)
October Final: 12-10, + 1.05 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.77% Yield)
Season 2017/18 Update: 38-25, + 9.79 Units (63 Units Staked, + 15.54% Yield)
Thursday, 1 December 2016
NBA December Picks 2016 (December 1-4)
The NBA week this week is going to be split into two threads to cover the end of November and the move into December in the 2017 season. I mentioned in the last November thread that this is what I was going to do and this thread will cover games going through to Sunday 4th December.
At that point the remainder of December will be split into the following threads:
Monday 5th December-Sunday 11th December
Monday 12th December-Sunday 18th December
Monday 19th December-Sunday 25th December
Monday 26th December-Saturday 31st December.
After two losing months for the picks, I am looking for December to begin turning things around and getting this season back on track.
Thursday 1st December
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets are coming off big wins after the former beat the Cleveland Cavaliers and the latter beat the LA Clippers. Now the Bucks and Nets have to face one another in a home and home series this week and it is key for the young Milwaukee team to take the next step in their development if they are going to be one of the top eight Eastern Conference teams.
It is tough for any team to play on the road, but the young Bucks have really had some issues in that spot through the season. This is a team that has lost in Dallas despite all the problems the Mavericks have been having and Milwaukee were also blown out at the Miami Heat, but the win over the Orlando Magic on the road might have given them a little more belief.
There are some expectations for the Bucks, but the Brooklyn Nets are arguably having a better record at this point of the season than most expected. However it has to be noted that the Nets had really been struggling before the win over the LA Clippers and they were on the road to a blow out loss in that one before the Clippers decided to play poorly.
Recent games have shown Milwaukee should have the edge at both ends of the court and the Bucks should have succes on the boards against the Nets. Milwaukee have been looking after the ball a little better than Brooklyn too and these factors can come together to help the Bucks win this game, while they shouldn't be overlooking Brooklyn having to play them again in a couple of days.
Milwaukee also have an 11-1-1 record against the spread in their last thirteen road games against the Brooklyn Nets and I like them to cover here.
LA Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: A week ago you might have been mistaken for thinking the LA Clippers are the best team in the NBA by some of the media coverage around their start. Since then the Clippers have not only lost three games in a row but they have lost to the likes of the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets. All of those games saw the Clippers go in as favourites and in the last two games they were favoured by double digits.
Playing on the road as the underdog might be more appealing to the Clippers as they take on the NBA Champions Cleveland Cavaliers on the road. DeAndre Jordan has been critical of his team for their lack of effort over the last week, but that shouldn't be a problem going up against LeBron James.
A bigger problem might be facing a Cleveland team with something to prove after being blown out by the Milwaukee Bucks last time out. That followed a tougher than expected win over the 76ers, but Cleveland have been much more dominant at home where they have won their last three games in dominant fashion.
However the Cavaliers haven't played too many teams of the standard of the LA Clippers who are far better than they have performed. Blake Griffin is back and the Clippers can match the scoring power of the Cavaliers, but I do think Cleveland have been stronger Defensively in recent games and have an edge on the rebounding which is important for them.
The three point shooting of the Cavaliers is another edge that can help them get the better of the Clippers and I think the Cavaliers look after the ball more effectively than their visitors. Cleveland have a 12-2 record against the spread in the last fourteen against the Clippers at home but they have yet to really do enough when facing teams with winning records in front of their fans as they are 2-4 against thes spread in those games this season.
I did say I was not interested in backing the Cavaliers for a few weeks at the beginning of November, but we have moved into December and this looks a spot to back them in. Coming off a huge loss, Cleveland should be motivated to show they are still the NBA kings and I like them to cover this number. I do expect the Clippers to have some strong runs in this one too, but ultimately Cleveland can come through with a win by around seven-nine points.
Friday 2nd December
I really thought the Cleveland Cavaliers would want to show something in their game with the LA Clippers but I have not been more disappointed in a performance like the one they produced. A lack of desire and effort resulted in a blow out home defeat and it is a game where I really don't understand what they were thinking about.
Maybe the game with the Chicago Bulls feels bigger for them, but I really didn't expect to see them lay such a horrific performance at home.
Thankfully the Milwaukee Bucks continued their dominance of the Brooklyn Nets to at least pull out a 1-1 day to open the month.
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Orlando Magic are coming in off a heartbreaking road loss at the Memphs Grizzlies on Thursday and now have to travel to Philadelphia to take on a rested 76ers team. There are some concerns for me in liking the 76ers in this game because I simply can't remember the last time they were favoured to win a NBA game and that is a different mindset than what they have been used to.
Some people suggest the players don't care about these things, but you would be foolish to think they don't know what the odds are in games. I have little doubt the 76ers know they are favoured to win which does put additional pressure on a team that has been so used to losing in recent seasons.
Joel Embiid has had his minutes per game increased which is important for the 76ers and I do think they are overall in a decent spot to take advantage of Orlando. The 76ers are well rested having had their game with Sacramento postponed a couple of days ago due to issues with the court and they face a Magic team that have put in two huge efforts since Philadelphia last played by beating San Antonio and then narrowly going down to Memphis on the road.
Being on a back to back after that emotional loss at the Grizzlies is going to take something from the Magic and that is why I think Philadelphia can take advantage. There are some similarities with the recent way both teams have been playing, but a key difference that may give the 76ers an advantage is the superior three point shooting they have been offering.
Philadelphia are also 4-0 against the spread at home to teams with losing records, while Orlando are 1-4 against the spread when visiting a team with a losing record. Offensively Orlando have been a little Jekyll and Hyde and I do like the 76ers to win this one even though they are 10-26 against the spread the last thirty-six times they have hosted Orlando.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks had a rare road win this season when they visited the Minnesota Timberwolves a couple of days ago and now they return to Madison Square Garden to complete this home and home series. After some recent struggles it was Carmelo Anthony who scored the winning bucket for the Knicks who will be confident to make it two from two against the Timberwolves having played much better in the Garden than on their travels.
There is a feeling that the Knicks are getting their chemistry together on the court although the loss of Courtney Lee is a blow to the rotation. Joakim Noah is another who could be absent again and that will hurt the Knicks who will be looking for a little more dominance on the boards having struggled in that regard for much of the season.
New York will feel they can take advantage of some of the Minnesota Defensive problems, but containing Karl-Anthony Towns is not going to be easy. The Knicks were hurt by Towns in the game a couple of days ago, but Kristaps Porzingis will be keen to get a little closer to him in this one.
I am expecting the Knicks to have the edge from the three point arc and they have been looking after the ball better than Minnesota in recent games. By being a little better in the Garden, I expect the Knicks to have a little more control in this game than they did in Minnesota, although it was blowing a big lead in the Fourth Quarter that meant they needed Anthony's last second winning shot.
The Knicks are 4-1 against the spread as a small favourite so far this season and they can get the better of Minnesota again as long as they can contain Towns and force the Timberwolves to find a big game from another avenue. I think they can do that and I will back the Knicks to win this one at home.
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs have had some really big moments in the early part of the 2016/17 season, but they have also had some moments which is far from what you would expect from this franchise. Gregg Popovich has been visually frustrated at times from what he has seen, but in saying all that the Spurs are still 15-4 to open the season and remain a contender in the Western Conference.
On the other hand they clearly don't look up to the level of the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers and perhaps even the Houston Rockets as they try and find their feet without Tim Duncan. There have been some tight wins in recent games and the Spurs have gone 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games which suggests they are being held in check by opponents.
The Washington Wizards are trying to find some consistency in their play, but they have not been winning the close games and blew a big opportunity at the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. The return of Bradley Beal to go with John Wall has given Washington an Offensive punch and they should be able to give Tony Parker and Patty Mills some issues with the speed and the Spurs struggling Defensively.
You can't doubt that San Antonio are the better team with stronger shooting from the three point arc that will give them a chance to run away with this game. That is a concern, but on first glance this looks a lot of points for the Wizards who should be able to challenge San Antonio on the glass and can get hot from the three point line themselves when firing.
One issue is hoping that Washington are firing because when they are bad, they are very, very bad. However they are rested and San Antonio are only making a quick stop back at home before heading on the road which might take some of the focus and I will take the points with the Wizards despite their horrific record in this part of Texas.
San Antonio did handle Washington easily enough when they played last Saturday in the nation's capital, but I expect the Wizards to be a little better this time and make use of the points.
Saturday 3rd December
A mixed set of results yesterday, but fortunately I came out on the right side of the three picks to move this week into a positive position. Two days are still to go this week on this thread and I am looking for another move in the right direction in that time.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Charlotte Hornets have to feel they can end up winning their three game home stand when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves having gone 1-1 previously. This looks a good opportunity for them to do that with the Timberwolves having played at the New York Knicks on Friday and with Minnesota not looking as strong as their roster should perhaps be.
Like against a few of their opponents, Minnesota are going to have some issues on the boards in this one and that is where Charlotte can use second chance points to start pulling away in the second half.
Defensively they have still be having issues and the Hornets have shown they are much better on that side of the court. These factors can play together to give Charlotte the edge in this game and the Hornets are 5-1 against the spread against Minnesota in their last six games against one another.
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: You have to be disappointed with some of the Defensive performances that the Portland Trail Blazers have produced in recent games, but they have to be feeling better after their win over the Indiana Pacers. They are also facing a Miami Heat team who have won back to back games on the road, but who have been Offensively challenged at times.
The Heat will believe they have the Defensive organisation to give Portland something to think about too, but the Trail Blazers have enough to get going in this like they have for much of the season.
Recent games haven't seen the Heat at their best Defensively either which should give Portland plenty of encouragement and I do think think it could be a tough day for the Heat.
Portland have shown improvement on the boards which can help their cause against Hassan Whiteside and I think they can cover at home for the third time in a row against Miami.
Friday 2nd December
I really thought the Cleveland Cavaliers would want to show something in their game with the LA Clippers but I have not been more disappointed in a performance like the one they produced. A lack of desire and effort resulted in a blow out home defeat and it is a game where I really don't understand what they were thinking about.
Maybe the game with the Chicago Bulls feels bigger for them, but I really didn't expect to see them lay such a horrific performance at home.
Thankfully the Milwaukee Bucks continued their dominance of the Brooklyn Nets to at least pull out a 1-1 day to open the month.
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Orlando Magic are coming in off a heartbreaking road loss at the Memphs Grizzlies on Thursday and now have to travel to Philadelphia to take on a rested 76ers team. There are some concerns for me in liking the 76ers in this game because I simply can't remember the last time they were favoured to win a NBA game and that is a different mindset than what they have been used to.
Some people suggest the players don't care about these things, but you would be foolish to think they don't know what the odds are in games. I have little doubt the 76ers know they are favoured to win which does put additional pressure on a team that has been so used to losing in recent seasons.
Joel Embiid has had his minutes per game increased which is important for the 76ers and I do think they are overall in a decent spot to take advantage of Orlando. The 76ers are well rested having had their game with Sacramento postponed a couple of days ago due to issues with the court and they face a Magic team that have put in two huge efforts since Philadelphia last played by beating San Antonio and then narrowly going down to Memphis on the road.
Being on a back to back after that emotional loss at the Grizzlies is going to take something from the Magic and that is why I think Philadelphia can take advantage. There are some similarities with the recent way both teams have been playing, but a key difference that may give the 76ers an advantage is the superior three point shooting they have been offering.
Philadelphia are also 4-0 against the spread at home to teams with losing records, while Orlando are 1-4 against the spread when visiting a team with a losing record. Offensively Orlando have been a little Jekyll and Hyde and I do like the 76ers to win this one even though they are 10-26 against the spread the last thirty-six times they have hosted Orlando.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks had a rare road win this season when they visited the Minnesota Timberwolves a couple of days ago and now they return to Madison Square Garden to complete this home and home series. After some recent struggles it was Carmelo Anthony who scored the winning bucket for the Knicks who will be confident to make it two from two against the Timberwolves having played much better in the Garden than on their travels.
There is a feeling that the Knicks are getting their chemistry together on the court although the loss of Courtney Lee is a blow to the rotation. Joakim Noah is another who could be absent again and that will hurt the Knicks who will be looking for a little more dominance on the boards having struggled in that regard for much of the season.
New York will feel they can take advantage of some of the Minnesota Defensive problems, but containing Karl-Anthony Towns is not going to be easy. The Knicks were hurt by Towns in the game a couple of days ago, but Kristaps Porzingis will be keen to get a little closer to him in this one.
I am expecting the Knicks to have the edge from the three point arc and they have been looking after the ball better than Minnesota in recent games. By being a little better in the Garden, I expect the Knicks to have a little more control in this game than they did in Minnesota, although it was blowing a big lead in the Fourth Quarter that meant they needed Anthony's last second winning shot.
The Knicks are 4-1 against the spread as a small favourite so far this season and they can get the better of Minnesota again as long as they can contain Towns and force the Timberwolves to find a big game from another avenue. I think they can do that and I will back the Knicks to win this one at home.
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs have had some really big moments in the early part of the 2016/17 season, but they have also had some moments which is far from what you would expect from this franchise. Gregg Popovich has been visually frustrated at times from what he has seen, but in saying all that the Spurs are still 15-4 to open the season and remain a contender in the Western Conference.
On the other hand they clearly don't look up to the level of the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers and perhaps even the Houston Rockets as they try and find their feet without Tim Duncan. There have been some tight wins in recent games and the Spurs have gone 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games which suggests they are being held in check by opponents.
The Washington Wizards are trying to find some consistency in their play, but they have not been winning the close games and blew a big opportunity at the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. The return of Bradley Beal to go with John Wall has given Washington an Offensive punch and they should be able to give Tony Parker and Patty Mills some issues with the speed and the Spurs struggling Defensively.
You can't doubt that San Antonio are the better team with stronger shooting from the three point arc that will give them a chance to run away with this game. That is a concern, but on first glance this looks a lot of points for the Wizards who should be able to challenge San Antonio on the glass and can get hot from the three point line themselves when firing.
One issue is hoping that Washington are firing because when they are bad, they are very, very bad. However they are rested and San Antonio are only making a quick stop back at home before heading on the road which might take some of the focus and I will take the points with the Wizards despite their horrific record in this part of Texas.
San Antonio did handle Washington easily enough when they played last Saturday in the nation's capital, but I expect the Wizards to be a little better this time and make use of the points.
Saturday 3rd December
A mixed set of results yesterday, but fortunately I came out on the right side of the three picks to move this week into a positive position. Two days are still to go this week on this thread and I am looking for another move in the right direction in that time.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Charlotte Hornets have to feel they can end up winning their three game home stand when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves having gone 1-1 previously. This looks a good opportunity for them to do that with the Timberwolves having played at the New York Knicks on Friday and with Minnesota not looking as strong as their roster should perhaps be.
Like against a few of their opponents, Minnesota are going to have some issues on the boards in this one and that is where Charlotte can use second chance points to start pulling away in the second half.
Defensively they have still be having issues and the Hornets have shown they are much better on that side of the court. These factors can play together to give Charlotte the edge in this game and the Hornets are 5-1 against the spread against Minnesota in their last six games against one another.
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: You have to be disappointed with some of the Defensive performances that the Portland Trail Blazers have produced in recent games, but they have to be feeling better after their win over the Indiana Pacers. They are also facing a Miami Heat team who have won back to back games on the road, but who have been Offensively challenged at times.
The Heat will believe they have the Defensive organisation to give Portland something to think about too, but the Trail Blazers have enough to get going in this like they have for much of the season.
Recent games haven't seen the Heat at their best Defensively either which should give Portland plenty of encouragement and I do think think it could be a tough day for the Heat.
Portland have shown improvement on the boards which can help their cause against Hassan Whiteside and I think they can cover at home for the third time in a row against Miami.
MY PICKS: 01/12 Milwaukee Bucks - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
01/12 Cleveland Cavaliers - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Coral (1 Unit)
02/12 Philadelphia 76ers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/12 New York Knicks + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
02/12 Washington Wizards + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/12 Charlotte Hornets - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
03/12 Portland Trail Blazers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
02/12 Philadelphia 76ers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/12 New York Knicks + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
02/12 Washington Wizards + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/12 Charlotte Hornets - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
03/12 Portland Trail Blazers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
December 1-4 Update: 4-3, + 0.68 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units
Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units
Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units
Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units
Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Monday, 7 December 2015
NBA Picks December 2015 (December 7-13)
It was looking like a good first week in December before two picks on Saturday both failed to make the grade and that means a slight loss from the first week of the month.
It hasn't had a big effect on the season totals though and hopefully the second week is a lot more productive as the end of the calendar year fast approaches. The NBA is still playing second fiddle to the American Football season at this point, although the League will have centre stage on Christmas Day with what has become a traditional feast of basketball to go with the turkey dinner.
The fact that the NBA season doesn't really click into gear until the New Year does lead to some up and down performances, but trying to find the best spots is still the key at this moment in time. I do think I was a little unfortunate with a couple of those last week, but November started slowly before being turned around so hopefully this month will be the same.
Monday 7th December
On Saturday both picks made went down even though the teams I picked both managed to win on the day. That's a little disappointing, while I ran a line through the Sunday games as nothing appealed enough.
Monday looks to be another tough slate of games and I will only make a single pick on a day when plenty of games are scheduled to be played.
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pick: The Washington Wizards have been as inconsistent as any team in the NBA but they could be short-handed for this back to back game on Monday. After coming off a loss to the Dallas Mavericks, Washington might be more concerned that John Wall looks set to miss out on this game at one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
To sum up the kind of inconsistent performances Washington produce you would just have to see this is a team that has won on the road at Cleveland but lost at home to the awful LA Lakers. Now with Wall likely sitting, I do wonder if the Wizards will have enough Offense to stay with the Miami Heat who have thrived on the Defensive side of the court.
I am a little concerned that the Heat have not been an Offensive powerhouse when you look for them to cover what is a big spread. The Wizards have been a strong road underdog when getting more than 6 points, but they are just 1-5 against the spread when playing at a team with a winning record this season.
I also can't ignore the fact that Washington are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in Miami so will back the home team to come through and cover.
Tuesday 8th December
So I guess I won't be backing against the Washington Wizards as a road underdog, or not a significant one at least, after they beat the Miami Heat to back up their win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last week. It was a surprising win after Miami had fought back to take a third quarter lead, but definitely means I will keep a watching eye on the Wizards in the near future.
Not the most productive start to the month with three straight losing picks, a run I would like to snap as soon as possible.
Houston Rockets @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: After a terrible start to the season cost Kevin McHale his Head Coach job with the Houston Rockets, signs have been much more positive of late. The Rockets have extended their run to five wins in their last six games and they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets having won three in a row.
It has been an expected inconsistent season for Brooklyn who will be trying to snap a two game losing run which saw them blown out by the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors in back to back games. Brooklyn have been much better at home and had won four in a row here before running into the Golden State Warriors, but they will need to be better Defensively if they are to knock off Houston for a second time this season.
The Rockets are looking for revenge having suffered a home loss to Brooklyn last month and they are 20-12 against the spread when favoured by fewer than six points on the road over the last couple of years. Houston have also been strong in revenge spots when losing to a team and playing them again in the same season and I do think they are playing with the confidence to win here.
They have enjoyed playing on the road at Brooklyn/New Jersey with a 9-3 record against the spread in their last twelve visits. The revenge factor should keep them focused on the first of back to back games on the road and I will take Houston to find the win and cover.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies are both expected to be contenders for places in the Western Conference Play Offs at the end of the season. Neither has really shown the consistency they would have liked early in this season, but both teams come with winning records albeit with something to prove.
That is because both teams have struggled when facing teams with winning records and that is highlighted by the fact that Memphis are 3-8 against the spread in those games and Oklahoma City are 1-6. The Grizzlies did beat the Thunder when they were missing Kevin Durant last month, but the return of one of the top scorers in the NBA should give Oklahoma City a big chance to earn some revenge.
Visiting The Grindhouse has been tough for the Thunder in recent games and they are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven here. However, Oklahoma City look to have enough scoring power to snap their recent run of losses here against a team that has been beaten easily in two of their last four games at home.
We know that Memphis will look to wear down Oklahoma City by slowing the tempo and using their bigs inside the paint, but the Grizzlies also have some threat from the three point range these days. Unfortunately they are still looking for consistency on the Offensive side of the court and I think the Thunder are capable of making some big stops to help them pick up a big road win.
Wednesday 9th December
There are so many games on slate in the NBA today but I don't think any have appealed to me so I will bypass the action and wait for the Thursday numbers.
Tuesday proved a mixed bag as Houston produced a dud of a performance while the Oklahoma City Thunder blew out Memphis in what was a dominant win.
Thursday 10th December
There were a bunch of games played on Wednesday but nothing stood out as I said- I did have a couple of shortlisted games with one of those winning but the other failing to do so it wasn't anything missed out.
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Atlanta Hawks came through a difficult game at the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, but it might be tough to back that up. The Hawks are 3-3 against the spread when playing the second of back to back games, but are also going up against a very impressive Oklahoma City Thunder who destroyed the Memphis Grizzlies on the road last time out.
That was one of their better displays of recent games and it can be hard for teams to produce a top performance in back to back games. Oklahoma City have been stronger at home though and they have a solid record as a big home favourite against the spread.
Neither team has played that well against teams with winning records, but I think the Thunder will be able to take control of this game if fatigue hurts Atlanta. That should give the home team a chance to cover the spread.
Friday 11th December
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a strong first half and did enough in the second to see off the Atlanta Hawks and even up the picks for the week.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Every team in the NBA has to be 'looking forward' to getting a shot at knocking off the unbeaten Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee could get their chance if the latter remain unbeaten on Friday. That game is set for Saturday, but first the Bucks have to focus on challenging the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors have twice fallen a little short in a bid to beat the Warriors this season but they have bounced back by winning two in a row including upsetting the San Antonio Spurs a couple of nights ago.
This is a big spread for Toronto to be asked to cover, but they are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five against Milwaukee at home while the latter is also 1-4 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record this season.
Milwaukee have had a difficult time at both ends of the court and even a slow Toronto start shouldn't pose enough problems to prevent the Raptors winning by at least ten points tonight.
Sunday 13th December
The Raptors missed the cover on Friday by a single point, which has dropped the week down. I haven't made as many picks this week because I haven't been overly impressed with the numbers, but I have got at least one for this Sunday.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Toronto Raptors are clearly the superior team to the Philadelphia 76ers, but this might not be a great spot for them to cover a big spread.
On Monday they are facing the Indiana Pacers and the focus might be to take on one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference rather than one of the worst in the NBA.
The Philadelphia 76ers were recently embarrassed by the San Antonio Spurs, but they have mainly been competitive this season. Considering the Raptors are just 2-4 against the spread when favoured by at least 12.5 points at home over the last couple of seasons and I do think this might be too many again with the Pacers next up for Toronto.
MY PICKS: 07/12 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
08/12 Houston Rockets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
11/12 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
13/12 Philadelphia 76ers + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 32-26-1, + 3.26 Units
It hasn't had a big effect on the season totals though and hopefully the second week is a lot more productive as the end of the calendar year fast approaches. The NBA is still playing second fiddle to the American Football season at this point, although the League will have centre stage on Christmas Day with what has become a traditional feast of basketball to go with the turkey dinner.
The fact that the NBA season doesn't really click into gear until the New Year does lead to some up and down performances, but trying to find the best spots is still the key at this moment in time. I do think I was a little unfortunate with a couple of those last week, but November started slowly before being turned around so hopefully this month will be the same.
Monday 7th December
On Saturday both picks made went down even though the teams I picked both managed to win on the day. That's a little disappointing, while I ran a line through the Sunday games as nothing appealed enough.
Monday looks to be another tough slate of games and I will only make a single pick on a day when plenty of games are scheduled to be played.
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pick: The Washington Wizards have been as inconsistent as any team in the NBA but they could be short-handed for this back to back game on Monday. After coming off a loss to the Dallas Mavericks, Washington might be more concerned that John Wall looks set to miss out on this game at one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
To sum up the kind of inconsistent performances Washington produce you would just have to see this is a team that has won on the road at Cleveland but lost at home to the awful LA Lakers. Now with Wall likely sitting, I do wonder if the Wizards will have enough Offense to stay with the Miami Heat who have thrived on the Defensive side of the court.
I am a little concerned that the Heat have not been an Offensive powerhouse when you look for them to cover what is a big spread. The Wizards have been a strong road underdog when getting more than 6 points, but they are just 1-5 against the spread when playing at a team with a winning record this season.
I also can't ignore the fact that Washington are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in Miami so will back the home team to come through and cover.
Tuesday 8th December
So I guess I won't be backing against the Washington Wizards as a road underdog, or not a significant one at least, after they beat the Miami Heat to back up their win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last week. It was a surprising win after Miami had fought back to take a third quarter lead, but definitely means I will keep a watching eye on the Wizards in the near future.
Not the most productive start to the month with three straight losing picks, a run I would like to snap as soon as possible.
Houston Rockets @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: After a terrible start to the season cost Kevin McHale his Head Coach job with the Houston Rockets, signs have been much more positive of late. The Rockets have extended their run to five wins in their last six games and they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets having won three in a row.
It has been an expected inconsistent season for Brooklyn who will be trying to snap a two game losing run which saw them blown out by the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors in back to back games. Brooklyn have been much better at home and had won four in a row here before running into the Golden State Warriors, but they will need to be better Defensively if they are to knock off Houston for a second time this season.
The Rockets are looking for revenge having suffered a home loss to Brooklyn last month and they are 20-12 against the spread when favoured by fewer than six points on the road over the last couple of years. Houston have also been strong in revenge spots when losing to a team and playing them again in the same season and I do think they are playing with the confidence to win here.
They have enjoyed playing on the road at Brooklyn/New Jersey with a 9-3 record against the spread in their last twelve visits. The revenge factor should keep them focused on the first of back to back games on the road and I will take Houston to find the win and cover.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies are both expected to be contenders for places in the Western Conference Play Offs at the end of the season. Neither has really shown the consistency they would have liked early in this season, but both teams come with winning records albeit with something to prove.
That is because both teams have struggled when facing teams with winning records and that is highlighted by the fact that Memphis are 3-8 against the spread in those games and Oklahoma City are 1-6. The Grizzlies did beat the Thunder when they were missing Kevin Durant last month, but the return of one of the top scorers in the NBA should give Oklahoma City a big chance to earn some revenge.
Visiting The Grindhouse has been tough for the Thunder in recent games and they are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven here. However, Oklahoma City look to have enough scoring power to snap their recent run of losses here against a team that has been beaten easily in two of their last four games at home.
We know that Memphis will look to wear down Oklahoma City by slowing the tempo and using their bigs inside the paint, but the Grizzlies also have some threat from the three point range these days. Unfortunately they are still looking for consistency on the Offensive side of the court and I think the Thunder are capable of making some big stops to help them pick up a big road win.
Wednesday 9th December
There are so many games on slate in the NBA today but I don't think any have appealed to me so I will bypass the action and wait for the Thursday numbers.
Tuesday proved a mixed bag as Houston produced a dud of a performance while the Oklahoma City Thunder blew out Memphis in what was a dominant win.
Thursday 10th December
There were a bunch of games played on Wednesday but nothing stood out as I said- I did have a couple of shortlisted games with one of those winning but the other failing to do so it wasn't anything missed out.
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Atlanta Hawks came through a difficult game at the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, but it might be tough to back that up. The Hawks are 3-3 against the spread when playing the second of back to back games, but are also going up against a very impressive Oklahoma City Thunder who destroyed the Memphis Grizzlies on the road last time out.
That was one of their better displays of recent games and it can be hard for teams to produce a top performance in back to back games. Oklahoma City have been stronger at home though and they have a solid record as a big home favourite against the spread.
Neither team has played that well against teams with winning records, but I think the Thunder will be able to take control of this game if fatigue hurts Atlanta. That should give the home team a chance to cover the spread.
Friday 11th December
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a strong first half and did enough in the second to see off the Atlanta Hawks and even up the picks for the week.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Every team in the NBA has to be 'looking forward' to getting a shot at knocking off the unbeaten Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee could get their chance if the latter remain unbeaten on Friday. That game is set for Saturday, but first the Bucks have to focus on challenging the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors have twice fallen a little short in a bid to beat the Warriors this season but they have bounced back by winning two in a row including upsetting the San Antonio Spurs a couple of nights ago.
This is a big spread for Toronto to be asked to cover, but they are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five against Milwaukee at home while the latter is also 1-4 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record this season.
Milwaukee have had a difficult time at both ends of the court and even a slow Toronto start shouldn't pose enough problems to prevent the Raptors winning by at least ten points tonight.
Sunday 13th December
The Raptors missed the cover on Friday by a single point, which has dropped the week down. I haven't made as many picks this week because I haven't been overly impressed with the numbers, but I have got at least one for this Sunday.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Toronto Raptors are clearly the superior team to the Philadelphia 76ers, but this might not be a great spot for them to cover a big spread.
On Monday they are facing the Indiana Pacers and the focus might be to take on one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference rather than one of the worst in the NBA.
The Philadelphia 76ers were recently embarrassed by the San Antonio Spurs, but they have mainly been competitive this season. Considering the Raptors are just 2-4 against the spread when favoured by at least 12.5 points at home over the last couple of seasons and I do think this might be too many again with the Pacers next up for Toronto.
MY PICKS: 07/12 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
08/12 Houston Rockets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
11/12 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
13/12 Philadelphia 76ers + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
December 7-13 Update: 2-4, - 2.14 Units
December 1-6 Final: 5-5, - 0.37 Units
December Update: 5-5, - 0.37 UnitsNovember Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 32-26-1, + 3.26 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)