NFL Week 14 Picks 2020 (December 10-14)

Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season has come around pretty quickly and that has something to do with the Covid-19 outbreak which meant Week 13 didn't finish until Tuesday.

Games are increasing in importance all the time as the run towards the PlayOffs gathers pace.

I will update this thread over the coming days, but below you can read my pick from Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Covid-19 regulations means this has had the feel of a different kind of week for the New England Patriots. They played in Los Angeles in this same Stadium in Week 13 and were given an opportunity by the NFL to stay on the West Coast for this Thursday Night Football game, although the Patriots have had to isolate and be involved in online walkthroughs in preparation for this one.

The Patriots did blow out the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and that has moved them back to 6-6 for the 2020 season. A strong finish will still see the Patriots earn their spot in the PlayOffs, but there isn't much room for error even though New England have three Divisional Games to come following this Thursday Night outing and that does bring the potential for a distraction.

There will be time to prepare for the games against the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets with the time between Week 14 and Week 15 offering the Patriots a mini-bye. That should give Bill Belichick all of the focus he needs to try and get the better of the Los Angeles Rams who won't have forgotten the Super Bowl defeat to the New England Patriots in February 2019.

Revenge cannot be the only motivation for the Rams who moved to the top of the NFC West after beating the Arizona Cardinals on the road on the same day that the Seattle Seahawks were upset by the New York Giants. A battle to win the Division is still in front of the Rams so they can't afford to drop any games either and that should mean we have a competitive game on Thursday Night Football which didn't have a running in Week 13 after the Baltimore Ravens had to shift their game against the Dallas Cowboys to Tuesday.

Both teams will be looking to run the ball and control the clock in this one and I do think it is a good game between teams who have some of the sharpest minds in the NFL on each sideline. Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay should be fascinating to watch when the Los Angeles Rams have the ball and there is no doubt that McVay will want to show he has learnt plenty from overseeing his team scoring just three points in the Super Bowl loss to New England.

Cam Akers could miss out for the Rams, but they will likely suit up Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson Jr to run the ball for them. It is important to try and keep Jared Goff in front of the chains and make sure the Quarter Back is at ease with the field position to avoid him getting flustered and rattled into making mistakes.

However it won't be easy for the Rams to run the ball with consistency against this New England Defensive Line, especially not with the injuries on the Offensive Line which have contributed to their poor rushing numbers. I think that may be the case for Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and it will likely lead to the Rams playing from third and long spots which is not ideal for Goff at Quarter Back.

There have been one or two holes in the New England Secondary which have been attacked, but I also do think Bill Belichick is going to try and cover up the likes of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and force Jared Goff to read through his progressions. In the Super Bowl a little over eighteen months ago it was a Belichick Defensive unit which shut down a powerful Los Angeles Offensive unit so there is a feeling he can do the same here.

While I do think New England are going to have some success Defensively, it is going to be a much tougher day Offensively than they had in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. That win was sparked by a number of huge Special Teams plays, but I am not sure they are going to have the same kind of successes against this Rams Defensive unit which continues to play at a high level.

I am not going to say the New England Offense is predictable, but I do think they are very much a run first team. If they can establish the ground game they become dangerous, but Cam Newton has not been blessed with the best Receiving corps and it has perhaps been part of the issues the former Carolina Panther has had when it comes to throwing down the field.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, I do think they are going to have a hard time running the ball against this Los Angeles Defensive Line even with a scrambling Quarter Back behind Center. If the Rams can clamp down on the run, it will mean Newton has to find some quick throws, screens and also use his legs to try and move the chains, but that may not be easy to do either.

The Rams do get some pressure up front so may be able to rush Cam Newton and I do think it is going to be hard for the Patriots to move the ball up and down the field. They will be looking to make use of short fields and turnovers to try and get into scoring position, but overall it should be a difficult day for New England.

Both teams may have one or two issues moving the ball Offensively and that leans me towards backing the under in this game.

It will be the first over/under I have backed this season, but this feels like being a low-scoring game and I would not be surprised if only one team managed to produce more than 20 points.

The under has actually gone 4-1 in the last five New England games as the underdog and is a perfect 5-0 in the last five Rams games as a home favourite. It is also a play that is 5-2 in the last seven between these teams and I do think points will be hard to come by, while the game could be shortened if both teams are making quick passes in place of a running game.

My feeling is that the Rams may just win and cover too, but it is not as strong a feeling as this game ending up below the total points line.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Pick: For a long time in 2020 the NFC East has been taking its shots from critics with all four teams looking amongst the poorest in the entire NFL. None of them have a winning record with four weeks left of the season, but all of a sudden the Washington Football Team have won three in a row and the New York Giants have won four in a row.

Both teams are at 5-7 and the Giants will be looking to keep their noses in front in the Division as they hold the tie-breaker over Washington. The Giants won a big road game at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 which will give them a lot of confidence, especially as it was the first time in 2020 that the Giants have beaten a team with a winning record.

They will be hosting the Arizona Cardinals who were at 6-3, but who have since dropped three in a row and are under some pressure to stay in touch with the leading teams in the NFC West and also the NFC Wild Card places. Injuries have not helped the Cardinals and the early start on the East Coast is not ideal for a team who have not won since the Hail Murray play which beat the Buffalo Bills.

During the three game losing run Kyler Murray has not really looked himself and teams have begun to focus on stopping him on the run and forcing him to turn to his left when he does want to scramble and throw on the run. That has had an impact in his performances and now he has to take on a Giants Defensive unit which is perhaps not rated as highly as they should be.

New York's Secondary have been very difficult to throw the ball against thanks to the pressure they are getting up front and that is going to be an issue for Arizona. While it is next to impossible to stop DeAndre Hopkins having a big impact on the game, the Giants will believe they can shut down other options in the passing game and also force Murray to rush his throws which could lead to turnovers and negative plays.

The Cardinals have been struggling to run the ball of late too, but they may have a chance to get back on track somewhat in this game. As good as the New York Defense has been in recent games, the Defensive Line do give up some big plays on the ground and both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds are capable of establishing the run, while Murray is still a threat to take off with his legs and move the chains.

Even then I do think the Giants can at least limit the amount of points Arizona score and that will give them a real chance of securing an upset.

Daniel Jones may be ready to return for New York at Quarter Back, but Colt McCoy played well enough at Seattle to believe he can have some successes if he is called upon again. Personally I think Jones will get the start and he does have some big Receiving options available which will give him a chance to have a good game, even if it has to be said that Jones is never far away from a back breaking turnover.

Wayne Gallman is no Saquon Barkley, but he should be able to have some good runs in this one and that will help out his Quarter Back. Daniel Jones is also capable with his legs and I think they can stay in front of the chains which should give the Giants a big opportunity to score points in this one.

The passing game has not exactly lit up the scoreboard of late, but the Giants should offer Jones or McCoy enough time to make their plays into this Arizona Secondary. In recent games the Cardinals have struggled to get a consistent pass rush going and that may show up here too which will give the New York Quarter Back the time to make throws down the field.

It feels like this is going to be a close and competitive game, but you can't ignore the momentum the two teams have built up ahead of Week 14. While the Giants are winning and feeling good, Arizona have been going the other way and the early Eastern Time slot is not ideal.

The Cardinals did beat the Giants here last season, but they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as the favourite.

New York have covered in their last seven as the underdog and I think they have every chance of winning this game outright.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: An Overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars has kept the Minnesota Vikings alive when it comes to the PlayOff picture in the NFC. At 6-6 there isn't a lot of room for error for the Vikings who have won five of their last six games, but this could be a pivotal game for them as they look to earn the tie-breaker over a potential Wild Card rival in the Conference.

That makes it a big game for the visitors, but don't underestimate the importance of the game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are hoping the Bye Week has allowed them to fix one or two issues they continue to have. The main issue seems to be the Head Coach and the Quarter Back not being on the same page and the Buccaneers went into the Bye Week having lost three of their last four games to fall to 7-5.

Those losses against the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have perhaps shown the Buccaneers are not ready to beat some of the best teams in the NFL. That is despite the obvious talent they have on both sides of the ball and with a veteran, future Hall of Fame Quarter Back running the show.

Tom Brady has not always looked at his best in this system which is not really taking into consideration his strengths. Instead the rumours are that Bruce Arians refuses to compromise on how he wants his teams to play Offensively and there has been some discord between the two men who were supposed to come together and make the Buccaneers a favourite to become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home Stadium.

Right now Tampa Bay are just searching for a way into the PlayOffs and I do expect them to match up well with the Minnesota Defensive unit which has suffered injuries and not playing to the level we have come to expect under Mike Zimmer. The Buccaneers should be able to hand the ball off to Ronald Jones and/or Leonard Fournette and I would expect them to at least keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus open up the playbook for Tom Brady.

There has been little sign in recent games that the Vikings Defensive Line are suddenly going to clamp down on the run and that should mean Jones and Fournette both have their moments ripping off some big gains. Tom Brady should then be able to exploit a Secondary which struggled to contain Mike Glennon in Week 13, while the Quarter Back won't be bothered by a heavy pass rush and so should have time to find the likes of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown down the field.

Running the ball has been a key strength for the Minnesota Offense this season, but Dalvin Cook is going to have problems as they try and control the clock and keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. As good as Cook has been, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been able to stop the run and the Defensive Line will feel they can dominate the trenches in this one too.

He could be a threat coming out of the backfield and giving Kirk Cousins a safety blanket, but it will be difficult for Cook on the ground and that will give Tampa Bay a significant advantage in the game. Forcing Minnesota to rely on Kirk Cousins could see the Buccaneers find a way to create a couple of turnovers, although Cousins will believe there is a weakness in the Secondary that he can exploit with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.

I do think Kirk Cousins would be right to think that, but if he is in obvious passing downs and distance he will be under pressure as the Minnesota Offensive Line has struggled in protection. The Buccaneers don't have the most effective pass rush in the NFL, but they can get to Cousins who will have to scramble and also try and make throws under duress to keep the Vikings moving.

Doing that consistently has yet to be proven by Cousins in his NFL career and he will have to be wary of the Secondary creating turnovers. While there are going to be some solid drives from Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, I do think the lack of balance could prove costly against a well rested opponent who have a point to prove.

I do think Tampa Bay will have worked out one or two kinks during their Bye Week and that should give them an edge with the balance Offensively working in their favour.

Tampa Bay are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against Minnesota, while the Buccaneers have covered in their last four games following a straight up loss. This is a considerable number, but I do think the home team will be a little more rested and ready to go and can beat the Vikings in what could be a vital game when it comes to the final PlayOff spots.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: After impressive back to back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts, it was strange to see the Tennessee Titans lay an egg in their Week 13 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. They will be looking to bounce back having dropped to 8-4 which means sharing the AFC South lead with the Colts, and the Titans really can't afford to drop a Divisional game.

It is especially the case when facing the Jacksonville Jaguars who were beaten for the eleventh time in a row in Week 13 having forced Overtime against the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars are still not holding the worst record in the NFL which would offer them the chance to Draft their next Quarter Back, but they are in a position to have a very high selection anyway.

The players are not going to concern themselves about the future as most will be playing for the chance to play in the NFL themselves. That has seen Jacksonville continue to play hard even if they have come up short and I think that kind of effort will be good enough to at least stay competitive in Florida.

Mike Glennon is the latest Quarter Back to be given an opportunity to impress at Jacksonville and he has been an upgrade on recent performers. There are still times Glennon can be criticised for making the wrong decision or allowing a back-breaking turnover, but this looks a good chance for him to have a strong outing.

In recent weeks the emergence of James Robinson at Running Back has at least given the Offensive unit a boost and a chance to play in front of the chains. I expect the Jaguars to offer up a heavy dose of Robinson again, although the big test in the trenches is establishing the run against an improving Tennessee Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on rush.

Some of that may be down to the fact that teams have had a lot of joy throwing the ball against the banged up Secondary, but I do expect the Jaguars to try and get the ball into James Robinson's hands and look for him to make some big plays for them.

The Quarter Back is not exactly loaded with Receiving talent, but there is enough here for Jacksonville to have success with Mike Glennon. His Offensive Line has not only played well when opening holes for the Running Back, but they have also protected Glennon and the limited Tennessee pass rush is unlikely to put pressure on him here.

It should mean Mike Glennon is able to make some big throws against this Secondary and I do think Jacksonville are capable of scoring enough points to at least keep the game close.

Tennessee struggled out of the gate last week, but Offensively they have really been in good form of late and I expect Derrick Henry to have a big game. He lost a rare Fumble last week, but Henry should crack open some big runs against this Jacksonville Defensive Line which has allowed an average of 152 yards per game on the ground across their last three.

Running the ball should give the Titans the chance to wear down this Defense with some long drives, while it also opens things up for Ryan Tannehill. Like his counterpart, Tannehill is expected to make some solid throws against a Secondary giving up big numbers and the former Miami Dolphin should be comfortable playing in Florida at this time of the year.

You do have to expect the Titans to bounce back from their loss last week, but I do think both teams will chew up some clock as they look to establish the run and also with successes connecting with some big plays through the air. Tennessee only won narrowly when hosting Jacksonville earlier this season and I do think the Jaguars should be motivated to try and upset a Divisional rival.

The Jaguars are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine at home against the Titans and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.

Tennessee are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and this is a team that has tended to play up and down to the level of opponent faced. While I do expect the Titans to prevail, I think the Jacksonville Jaguars could secure a backdoor cover at the very least in this one.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There is still a chance for the Dallas Cowboys to make the PlayOffs despite sitting at 3-9, although the pressure is on to win their final four games and then hope for help from others. The losses to Washington and Baltimore in the last couple of weeks have come with little resistance which has to be a worry, but you have to believe Andy Dalton is going to be highly motivated when facing his former team for the first time.

Andy Dalton was jettisoned by the Cincinnati Bengals who have moved on to a new franchise Quarter Back, but Joe Burrow is out and the Bengals are completely banged up in all units. That should give Dalton a chance to win in his former home, although he is going to need some support from his team-mates who have looked like they can't wait until the end of the season.

In usual circumstances I think I would move right past this game as two bad teams face one another, and the Cowboys are coming in off a short week. However I do think the Quarter Back can inspire his team for revenge while I am not sure the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be able to score more than 14 points in this one which makes any cover tough to come by.

Brandon Allen is going to make his third start in place of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back, but he has been offered very little pass rush protection from his Offensive Line and has been banged up over the last two weeks. Even though he will play here, I would not be surprised if the Cowboys are able to generate some pressure against Allen and at least bring him down a couple of times to stall drives.

There are injuries in the Dallas Secondary, but that pressure will help them and Cincinnati have shown little consistency throwing the ball since Burrow went down.

One of the other reasons the Dallas Secondary have decent numbers is because teams have been able to run against them with very little resistance. They gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday, but this Cincinnati Offensive Line is banged up and Joe Mixon remains absent and I am not sure the Bengals are going to be able to take advantage of Dallas here. Giovani Bernard has not really filled in as the Bengals would have liked and I do think their Offensive Line issues could see drives ending with Field Goals or Punts more often than not.

It is that aspect which makes me believe backing a team with three wins as a road favourite is the right play in Week 14 of the 2020 season. Offensive Line issues is something that Dallas will sympathise with but the Cincinnati Bengals have found very little pressure so there is a real chance that Andy Dalton will have the time to hit what is still a solid Receiving corps down the field.

Some reports are suggesting that Ezekiel Elliot could be ruled out and that will hurt the Dallas Cowboys as the Bengals have been pretty good at defending the run. If he is able to go I still think Elliot can put the Cowboys in front of the chains and just put his Quarter Back in a very strong position to make plays and put Dallas in a position to win the game.

The former Bengal will have to be wary of the Cincinnati Secondary, which is one of the better parts of the Cincinnati Defensive unit, although they have not been able to completely shut down the pass. I expect the likes of Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz and Amari Cooper to give Andy Dalton the kind of threats to move the ball up and down the field and I do think Dallas can win here.

The trends are pointing towards the Cincinnati Bengals, but I simply don't think Brandon Allen can help this team score enough points to stay competitive. They had a backdoor cover against the New York Giants a couple of weeks ago and almost did the same against the Miami Dolphins in Week 14, but I am keen on backing a motivated Andy Dalton to get one over on his former team.

The Cowboys are a bad team, but so are the banged up Cincinnati Bengals who have a big game with Pittsburgh on deck and may be focusing on that rather than this non-Conference game. I don't feel great backing a road favourite like Dallas, but that is where I find myself in Week 14 as long as you don't have to back them over the key number 3.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Green Bay Packers may hold the tie-breaker over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC, but the race for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is likely to go down to the wire. At the point the Packers are a game behind the Saints so the only thing on their minds has to be winning out and hoping New Orleans slip.

You can't ignore the importance of winning the Number 1 Seed as that will be the only team earning a Bye in the PlayOffs. In recent years those teams receiving a Bye have had a big advantage in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs and beyond and the sole team with that Bye in the bag are going to be feeling really good about their chances.

The Packers are big favourites on the road, but this is a Divisional game and the Detroit Lions played with plenty of heart to come from behind and beat the Chicago Bears in Week 13. That came in the days after Matt Patricia was fired as Head Coach and there are going be some big changes coming up in Detroit, although Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell will be trying to keep his players focused on giving their all with the next four weeks an effective job interview.

If the Week 13 win over the Bears is anything to go by then we should expect to see the Lions offering plenty here. Matthew Stafford may not be the future of the franchise at Quarter Back now changes are coming, but there is still plenty coming from the veteran even though his Receiving corps remains banged up.

Matthew Stafford will be challenged by the Green Bay Packers Secondary which has recovered key players and that also seen an improvement in the numbers. I do think Stafford has shown he can find the creases in any Defensive backfield, but he will also be aware that the Detroit Offensive Line has not offered a lot of time and now Stafford is going to be dealing with a Packers pass rush that is playing at a high level.

Teams have been able to at least try and establish the run to keep the Packers Offense on the sidelines and remain in front of the chains with their own Offense. However the Detroit Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, and the lack of holes up front has made it very difficult for Detroit to run the ball as they would like.

D'Andre Swift could be back for Detroit which will give them a huge boost, but even then his bigger threat may be picking up passes out of the backfield and giving Matthew Stafford a safety blanket.

I do still think Detroit will have some success as they did when meeting the Packers in Green Bay, but on that day their own Defensive unit were not able to slow Aaron Rodgers down. With problems in the Lions Secondary, I do think Rodgers is set to have another big game for the Green Bay Packers and he has gotten some key players back on that side of the ball which makes this team even more dangerous.

Allan Lazard may not be one of the stand out names on the roster, but he offers Aaron Rodgers another target opposite Davante Adams and just makes this team a little more dangerous. Aaron Rodgers has continued to play with a chip on his shoulder in 2020 despite the lack of weapons Drafted for him earlier this year and Green Bay should be able to move the ball through the air against a banged up Detroit Secondary.

With little pass rush pressure, I do think Rodgers will have time to make his plays and the Quarter Back has largely looked after the ball which is key. He should keep the Offensive drives moving up and down the field with his arm and Green Bay look capable of winning a shoot out.

The Lions will at least believe their Defensive Line are able to make some plays up front to clamp down on the run, but Green Bay have a strong Offensive Line and they have been dominating the trenches. It should offer Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams some strong running lanes and just means the Packers will have the kind of balance which may see them pull away for a big win.

Detroit have to be respected as they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home against Green Bay.

However they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record.

Green Bay are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten as the favourite and have been very good when playing Divisional rivals of late. I think this could be a high-scoring game, but I think Green Bay are more likely to end drives with Touchdowns rather than the Detroit Lions and it may see them pull away for the win and the cover here.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams-New England Patriots Under 43.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants + 2.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

United Corner- Derby Day Disappointment (December 13th 2017)

United Corner- Derby Day Disappointment (December 13th 2017)

The reality is that most of us Manchester United fans would have accepted that Manchester City have the superior eleven starting at the moment, but that doesn't mean we have to accept being second best as we were at Old Trafford on Sunday.

It has taken a couple of days for the defeat to really sink in and the stories of the tunnel fracas and subsequent press conferences both Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola has kept the wound a little fresher than I was hoping.

The thing that really grates is that, despite being second best, and despite the feeling United are not as good as City at this moment in time, United should not have lost in the manner they did. Two horrible mistakes from set pieces and the game was gone, but looking back it was only when United began to chase the game that City really had the openings to put the game away and I can't think of too many great chances created before that.

I'm not saying United were playing better.

But I am saying that City were mainly kept at arm's length and those two mistakes from set pieces are haunting me in a game where I feel United could have got a result.

Even with that in mind, there are clearly some way to go before United can really match those lot across the way and I think the next summer transfer window is going to be a really big one for Jose Mourinho. A legitimate number 10 and another wide player have to be the priority, but it can't just be a functioning player but one that can really turn a game.

That would seriously help with the maintaining of possession against a City team who try and starve teams of the ball, while also providing a more effective counter attack.

Some of the tactics may need to be questioned with the long, direct ball clearly not working bar one mistake from the City defence, but that can be a decent plan if mixed in with a little more courage to take the ball down and get around the press.

It can happen and that extra quality will help, while I still believe Paul Pogba was a huge loss for the team and one that may have turned enough in our favour to get something from the game.

This season it is tough to get the ball down and play when you see some of the starters from Sunday, but I do hope the entire team plays with a little more belief in what they are doing the next time we meet City.

That might not be too long with both clubs progressing in the League Cup which reaches its Semi Final Round after the Quarter Finals are played next week. Both United and City also have decent Champions League draws and a chance to open up in the FA Cup with home wins so there is every chance we have to meet again to determine more silverware later in the campaign.

A bit more bravery and a better performance from set pieces and I think United will be closer, especially as City begin to rack up the games and the fatigue later in the season.

Some of that will depend on the title rivals getting closer than the 11 point gap which currently exists. I think United just have to do what Mourinho has been emphasising and that is take each fixture as it comes and see how it plays out.

Games against Bournemouth, West Brom, Leicester City, Burnley (twice), Southampton, Everton and Stoke City represent a good chance for Manchester United to get back on the horse and see where they stand when they head to Wembley Stadium to play Tottenham Hotspur at the end of January.

It is very much within the realms of possibility that United can win all 8 game League games in that time during which Manchester City host Tottenham Hotspur and have to visit Liverpool and suddenly the gap may look more manageable.

I am clutching at straws somewhat, but we have seen United both reel in and blow big leads after Christmas in the last twenty years and I don't want to be handing any prizes to City just yet.

It was also nice to hear from Louis Van Gaal in the aftermath of the loss to Manchester City- a good time for the overrated Dutchman to try and stick the knife in.

Unfortunately the suggestion that his United team were the 'great entertainers' went down faster than a lead balloon, while the fact he thinks he has his 'best year' as manager, despite the money he was handed, is laughable.

One, I've never been as bored watching United as I was under LVG when goalless home draws were the absolute norm as he put spectators and his own players to sleep.

Two, best year? The last two years have shown how important it can be for teams to produce their best in the Premier League without European distractions. Both Leicester City and Chelsea have won the League without European commitments.

Louis Van Gaal took United to 4th and 17 points off the eventual winners Chelsea.

We also lost 4-0 at MK Dons in the League Cup and a home loss at Arsenal meant United ended up without silverware.

The next season the great LVG couldn't get United back into the top four.

Best year? He honestly must have been at the Christmas wine again.

And every day he should thank a broken fax machine for being the reason his only real legacy at Old Trafford would have been selling David De Gea to Real Madrid for Keyler Navas and a bag of crisps!

The fixtures will come thick and fast during the remainder of December with United playing twice a week and that could continue through January depending on whether we get through to the League Cup Semi Final and any potential FA Cup Replay.

It's a tough time but Pogba is back next week and the squad has the depth to cope with the fixtures. I am hoping United can kick on with the wins to really put the Manchester derby defeat behind us and I am sure there is enough character in the squad to do that.

There is plenty of football and silverware to be played for and Sunday is not going to hold back the team. United can't afford to slip up though with the top four chase looking like one that could go down to the wire, but I believe the boys will get back to winning ways on Wednesday and that will help build some momentum to take into the new calendar year.

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (December 12-13)

The December Football schedule means there are not a lot of days to rest and recover and that is shown by another round of Premier League fixtures to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The last weekend was a big one in terms of the title race as it looks like Manchester City are going to be very difficult to pull back after winning at Old Trafford. It was a tough day for us Manchester United fans and I will have a short piece about United in the wake of that defeat which should be posted before the Bournemouth game on Wednesday.


On Monday the Champions League and Europa League Last 16/Last 32 Knock Out ties were drawn and it looks an interesting time for the Premier League.

I do think Arsenal can work their way through to the Last 16 without too many issues when they take on Ostersunds and the importance of the Europa League will depend on how The Gunners play in the Premier League between now and February.

The more intriguing ties came in the Champions League as the five English teams in the Last 16 received their opponents.

Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City should be very happy when they play the two Legs against Sevilla, Porto and Basel respectively.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have received the glamour ties against Juventus and Barcelona which will really appeal to the fans, and I think both will have their chances. I lean towards Tottenham Hotspur making a quartet of English representatives in the Quarter Finals and Chelsea being edged out, but those the situation could be much different when we come around to February when the Champions League recommences.

And of course most will be looking forward to Real Madrid versus Paris Saint-Germain which looks a tie that could easily determine the winner of the Champions League this season.


This weekend was one of the worst when it comes to the Football Picks in recent weeks and I have to say I was a little irritated things went south as badly as they did. The Christian Benteke penalty miss was costly, but it was a tough day all around and I am looking for a significant bounce back on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.


Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: Neither Roy Hodgson or Marco Silva were in a great mood on Saturday evening after feeling their teams had been hard done by, but both Crystal Palace and Watford have to pick themselves up immediately with another round of Premier League games this midweek.

Crystal Palace may rue the two points they dropped on Saturday when Christian Benteke decided to take a penalty that the manager or coaching staff did not ask him to. Benteke isn't the designated penalty taker for Crystal Palace with Luka Milivojevic having already scored one penalty on the day still on the pitch, and you do have to wonder how the players feel about the way things panned out.

There is also the concern that Wilfried Zaha could face a suspension having won the first penalty in controversial fashion, but that has not been decided at the time of writing. Losing Zaha would be a huge blow for Crystal Palace, but Hodgson has to be encouraged that his team can create chances at home.

Saturday was the fifth consecutive home game in which Crystal Palace had scored at least two goals and there are injury concerns and suspensions which make Watford vulnerable. However Marco Silva has to feel his side can create chances at Selhurst Park too with Watford being an efficient counter attacking team.

Crystal Palace haven't done clean sheets at home and I can see this being another high-scoring game for the home fans to appreciate. I am leaning towards a home win too with Watford perhaps a little tired after playing with ten men for a long time on Saturday, but I do think Watford can play their part here and will back at least three goals to be shared out.

Watford have scored plenty of away goals in the League, but have also conceded quite a few and an entertaining game could be the outcome.


Huddersfield Town v Chelsea Pick: These two teams come into this live Premier League televised encounter after contrasting feelings from the results they earned on Saturday, but Chelsea will still be big favourites to win at Huddersfield Town.

While Chelsea went down to a 1-0 loss on Saturday lunchtime, Huddersfield Town beat Brighton 2-0 here later in the day. However I do wonder how much energy the home team will have for this game having been hammered at Arsenal just a few days after an intense battle with Manchester City a couple of weeks ago.

The home form is key for Huddersfield Town, but the intensity with which David Wagner wants his players to play can be sapping. They were the far better team on Saturday when beating Brighton, and Huddersfield Town will look to exploit all the set pieces they have, but it may be tough to dominate in the same way against Chelsea.

Despite the disappointing performance against West Ham United, Chelsea have shown they can bounce back from poor results with much better ones soon after. Antonio Conte's suggestion the players were tired is a concern, but there is enough quality to make some changes and still be an effective threat, while this time they are facing a team who will have played with less recovery time.

That could be important for Chelsea who will also play again on Saturday with more recovery time than their next opponents. You do have to respect the Huddersfield Town home form which has seen them beat Manchester United and only narrowly lose to Manchester City, but I do think it is difficult for their squad to play two Premier League games in a short space of days like this.

Chelsea's experience of dealing with a couple of games in a three or four day period should help them here and I do think they can bounce back from the loss at West Ham United. It won't be easy, but I expect Chelsea can wear Huddersfield Town down with the domination of the ball and the home team might not have the same intensity in the second of two Premier League games in four days and I will look for Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day.


Newcastle United v Everton Pick: The one concern for any midweek fixtures off the back of a busy Premier League weekend is how much energy has been sapped in matches played. That has to be an issue for Everton after playing in the Merseyside derby on Sunday, but they can at least point to the draw as a positive and perhaps another confidence boost for a squad of players who had been struggling.

It certainly makes it a surprise to see Newcastle United as favourites to beat them after they were beaten here by Leicester City on Saturday afternoon. Having a few hours more of recovery time can be important, but The Magpies are out of form and Rafa Benitez is struggling to get a tune out of his players.

Newcastle United have lost 6 of their last 7 games and they are now just a couple of points clear of the bottom three and with some tough fixtures to come. They have lost 3 in a row at St James' Park and I just can't have them as favourites to beat Everton this Wednesday.

Sam Allardyce will look to make Everton hard to beat and challenge Newcastle United on the counter attack and I think they can have success doing that. Energy levels could be an issue, but Newcastle United are struggling and the visitors are in the kind of form where they can be backed with a start on the Asian Handicap.


Southampton v Leicester City Pick: There is a clear storyline in play when Southampton face Leicester City on Wednesday and that is the return of Claude Puel to St Mary's where his tactics were not appreciated by the home fans. In his time with Southampton Puel took them to a League Cup Final, but there was a perception of negativity that surrounded him and that saw Southampton decide to move on.

A few months later Puel has taken over at Leicester City and the fans at his new club may have been worried about what to expect when reading about his time with Southampton. However Leicester City have been far from a boring team to watch since Puel replaced Craig Shakespeare and the players seem very happy.

That should mean they are given even more motivation to put in a big performance for their manager in this game which will mean a lot to Puel.

Leicester City have been in a good run which will increase the confidence and they have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games both at home and away. The 2-3 win at Newcastle United on Saturday showed some of the determination in the squad after Leicester City had fallen 1-0 down very early in the contest and I do think they can provide problems for Southampton who have had a day less recovery time from the weekend fixtures.

Southampton have also been in improved form in recent weeks which should mean we have a decent fixture in prospect. They should have beaten Arsenal with the chances they had in the second half, but the final ball is still a problem for Southampton and I think that is still holding them back from really pushing on up the Premier League table.

Charlie Austin is providing a goal threat, but Southampton have only scored more than one goal in 1 of their last 8 Premier League games. That was in the recent 4-1 win over Everton at St Mary's but the lack of goals continues to be an issue that needs resolving and I think that gives Leicester City every chance to earn a result for Claude Puel.

The away side have scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and I think Leicester City can avoid a loss here. I was tempted to back the draw, but Leicester City have created enough chances to win games and if Southampton continue to struggle for goals there is every opportunity for Leicester City to win here.

Either way, I think Leicester City earn a result and I will back them with a start on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Swansea City v Manchester City Pick: It is still too early to put the fork into the Premier League title chase, but Manchester City have looked very strong and the win at Old Trafford moving them 11 points clear of 2nd placed Manchester United looks a huge lead already. Things can change quickly, but it is tough to see Manchester City hitting the kind of slump that will be needed for that gap to decrease and I really don't think that happens here at the Liberty Stadium.

Paul Clement just has to be happy that his side won on Saturday to ease some of the pressure he has to have been feeling as Swansea City manager. The rumours that the club were looking at Tony Pulis as a possible replacement didn't affect the players who helped Swansea City beat West Brom 1-0, but this is a completely different level of test.

You know Clement will try and set Swansea City up to be tough to beat and hit Manchester City on the counter attack, but it is the away side who will dominate the ball. The talent Manchester City have means they are likely to wear down Swansea City over the course of ninety minutes, and the lack of goals in the Swansea City squad has to be a concern.

Wilfried Bony has scored twice in a row and would love to do the same against his former club Manchester City, but this is a team who had failed to score in 3 home games prior to the win over West Brom. The lack of goals is the reason Swansea City are struggling in the Premier League and I think they will have their problems trying to get to the Manchester City backline in this one.

Manchester City have a strong recent record at Swansea City and the feeling is that they will likely win this one with a clean sheet which can be backed at odds against. That looks the most likely way this fixture ends as Manchester City likely have a couple of goals in the side to secure the victory and keep the pressure on their rivals to try and find a way to stay with them.


Liverpool v West Brom Pick: Jurgen Klopp was angry and irritated by the questions he was facing immediately after Liverpool could only draw 1-1 with Everton as he felt the officials had made the wrong decision for the late Everton penalty that was awarded. It was the frustration that came out of the day when Liverpool should have won the Merseyside derby with some comfort, but Klopp will likely recognise the penalty was the correct decision.

He will be hoping to be in a better mood on Wednesday evening after Liverpool host an out of form West Brom team who remain tough to break down even after Tony Pulis has moved on. Alan Pardew has not made an immediate impact with The Baggies though and this is a team who have struggled in the final third which is going to make it tough to earn a result here.

West Brom will likely hope to do the same as Everton and contain Liverpool as much as possible and take advantage of any set pieces or counter attacking opportunities they get. The Liverpool defence is one that is far from watertight, but it was still tough for Everton to get up the field and I think that is going to be the case for West Brom here.

As poor as Liverpool have defended at times, they seem to do better at Anfield where they have had 5 clean sheets in their last 7 here in all competitions. They have won 4 of their last 6 at Anfield and all of those wins have come with a clean sheet and I have to think that is very likely against a West Brom team who have lost 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games by the same 1-0 scoreline.

The Baggies have also failed to score in 4 of their last 6 Premier League games overall and I think that is going to be a problem for them on Wednesday. Backing Liverpool to win this one with a clean sheet is a big enough price to be involved and they have been better defensively at Anfield to think they can earn the three points behind a clean sheet here.


Manchester United v Bournemouth Pick: It was a disappointing day in the office for Manchester United on Sunday when they were clearly the second best team on the pitch against Manchester City, but the manner of the goals conceded will haunt Jose Mourinho. For all the talk of possession and shots, it was two blunders from set pieces which cost Manchester United and that will hurt considering that was supposed to be an area of strength.

It will hurt and the players and fans will be feeling a little sore on Monday, but they have to get back on the horse in a busy December.

All is not lost yet for Manchester United who have to put a winning run together and then see how things are looking in a few weeks time. They have a chance to do that with the next set of League games coming mainly against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League table and that begins on Wednesday when hosting Bournemouth.

I do expect Jose Mourinho to make some changes to freshen up his team although there aren't many options in the middle of the park. The likes of Phil Jones, Luke Shaw, Matteo Darmian, Henrikh Mkhitaryan didn't play a minute on Sunday, while Juan Mata and Zlatan Ibrahimovic both had limited roles.

The squad should be able to cope with a Bournemouth side who were fortunate to escape Crystal Palace with a point when you think of the chances the home side had. Bournemouth do feel more comfortable at this level, but they have been second best when facing the top teams in the League for the most part.

This is a team who have lost at both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur and suffered home losses to Manchester City and Chelsea and I do think Bournemouth are not quite so good on their travels. They can't make the same types of changes as Manchester United so tiredness could be a factor considering the effort made on Saturday, although an extra day of rest will help the visitors in this one.

Even with that in mind, they are facing a Manchester United team who will have something to prove on Wednesday. The top four places is the minimum everyone connected with the club will expect and they have to recover from a disappointing result.

Being at home helps considering Manchester United had won 12 straight at Old Trafford before Sunday, and they have been putting some of the lesser lights to the sword in front of their home fans. That is a marked improvement from last season and I think Manchester United will dominate the possession in this one and are able to score the goals to win by a relatively comfortable margin too.

Bournemouth will allow Manchester United to express themselves and that has led to plenty of goals conceded when visiting the top teams in England. There might not be a lot of goals in this one as Manchester United just want to get back to winning and Bournemouth may be looking to keep it tight as possible, but Manchester United have followed each of their previous 3 losses this season with wins.

2 of those have come by at least a two goal margin and I will back Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: December is a test for clubs both at the top and bottom of the Premier League with the games coming thick and fast and that stretches squads. However teams at the top will feel they can make a few more changes to freshen things up and keep the quality at a high level which is an issue for those lower down the Division.

It shouldn't be a problem for Tottenham Hotspur this midweek, although they are likely going to keep the big names out there to try and build some momentum ahead of the Premier League game at Manchester City on Saturday. They may freshen up the full back positions and not lose too much, and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are going to be too good for Brighton who are struggling.

Chris Hughton won't be panicking just yet, but Brighton have taken some heavy losses of late and the disappointment of the 2-0 loss at Huddersfield Town will have dented the confidence. Travelling to Wembley Stadium may offer the motivation for a big effort, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hughton makes some changes with the weekend game in mind.

Back to back home games against Burnley and Watford could be the priority for Hughton and Brighton and I think that may show up on Wednesday.

Brighton did play well in a narrow loss at Old Trafford recently, but they have since lost 1-5 to Liverpool and 2-0 at Huddersfield Town. The Seagulls have also lost by a couple of goals against Manchester City and Arsenal this season and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are perhaps trending upwards after some recent negative results.

That should see Tottenham Hotspur create the chances to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap.


West Ham United v Arsenal Pick: The two teams had contrasting results in the last round of Premier League fixtures, but I think Arsenal can bounce back against West Ham United.

The home team should be very confident and coming in with a lot of positive feeling after beating Chelsea 1-0 here on Saturday and they have also had an extra day to prepare for this London derby. However West Ham United have a squad that is stretched and they had to put in a lot of work on Saturday to earn the victory over Chelsea and I do wonder if that has taken something out of the tank.

The players certainly looked short of energy at the end of the win over Chelsea and they are likely going to be doing a lot of chasing in this one against an Arsenal team who can dominate possession.

However West Ham United should feel they can create chances against an Arsenal defence which has looked very vulnerable in the last couple of League games. They were fortunate not to be punished by Southampton who had some very strong counter attacking opportunities, but Arsenal have the talent to break down any team in front of them when they are playing at their best.

Arsenal conceded early and West Ham United scored early over the weekend and I do think the opening moments will be important in this one. If Arsenal can just weather what is likely to be an early storm, I would fancy Arsenal to create chances against a West Ham United team who will have some fatigue to deal with.

In recent years Arsenal have enjoyed their trips to West Ham United including a 1-5 win at the London Stadium last season. I think they will be able to bounce back from the last couple of weaker Premier League results with a much better one on Wednesday and I still think West Ham United are a team who have issues at the back that Arsenal can expose.

It didn't work on Saturday, but I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap in a win at the London Stadium on Wednesday.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet365 (2 Units)

December Update: 9-18, - 12.38 Units (45 Units Staked, - 27.51% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (December 13-14)

The games come thick and fast at this time of the domestic season in England and we have another round of Premier League and Championship fixtures to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday. Over the weekend we have the last round of fixtures from the domestic Leagues in England before Christmas Day and then there are still plenty of football to come in the ten days following Christmas Day.

I have to say it is a little disappointing that there isn't much football to be played between Monday 19th December and Boxing Day, but I am sure the players will appreciate the time off to get ready for another run of games in quick succession from Boxing Day going into the New Year.


The weekend Premier League games produced a whole host of goals on Saturday as better than expected weather conditions have allowed teams to play their football as they have liked. Things have closed up at the bottom of the table as well as in the race for the top four spots, while the Premier League title chase is going to heat up going into the New Year.

It makes all of these festive games very important as managers try and keep players fresh without losing momentum. There are some big fixtures to come in the next few days before the break before Christmas Day including Manchester City v Arsenal and Everton v Liverpool which close the Premier League games until Boxing Day.


The draws for both the Champions League and Europa League Knock Out Round took place this week too and for most of the English clubs there has to be some happiness with who they have got.

Manchester City couldn't have asked for better than Monaco, while Leicester City arguably faced the best they could have hoped for with Sevilla their opponents in the Champions League. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have not only been given winnable ties against Saint-Etienne and Gent respectively, but neither is being asked to travel too far at a busy time of the season in February and have to be pleased with that.

The team drawing the short straw is Arsenal who were paired with Bayern Munich despite winning their Champions League Group and will be the underdog in that Second Round tie. It might be closer than people imagine unless Bayern Munich vastly improve over the next two months and Arsenal might feel they can get the better of the Bavarian giants over two legs especially with the game at The Emirates Stadium coming in the Second Leg.

It does mean there are some interesting games ahead for fans of those clubs still involved in Europe but that will be put to the back burner as the Premier League and domestic Cup action takes place in the coming weeks first.


After a really poor week for the picks, Saturday and Sunday proved to be much better with a return to form and winners helping reduce the losses from the week leading into the weekend football. Another strong showing this week can hopefully get the picks back into a winning position before the Boxing Day and New Year's Eve games round out the 2016 calendar year and concludes the fifth month of the season.

There are a few picks I've made from the Premier League and Championship matches to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week and the next thread will be out later this week for the Weekend Football.


Bournemouth v Leicester City Pick: The win over Manchester City on Saturday is supposed to be a turning point for Leicester City's season but I am not so convinced that we didn't just see the 'perfect storm' for them in that game. Two early goals and a couple of gifts from the Manchester City defending helped Leicester City along the way while the style of play Pep Guardiola likes would have given The Foxes a chance to use their counter attack to devastating effect.

That is clearly something that came out during the game because not many would have tipped Leicester City to win the game before kick off, and I think Bournemouth present a very different test for them. This time the fans will be expecting Leicester City to win the game and that can have an effect on the mindset of the players going onto the field.

Bournemouth will try and play their football and that should mean Leicester City have a chance to counter them, while Jamie Vardy's hat-trick has to give the England international a shot in the arm after struggling for weeks on end. That has to be a worry for Bournemouth who have conceded at least three times in their last 3 Premier League games, but Bournemouth have also scored in 5 straight League games.

That suggests there are going to be goals in this one and I do think both teams will score in the game. Leicester City have conceded at least two goals in their last 3 away games in all competitions and they have conceded at least that many goals in 6 of 7 away Premier League games while still searching for their first clean sheet away from home.

Both teams are likely to give this a go and I do think there will be at least three goals shared out by the teams which will be my pick from this game.


Everton v Arsenal Pick: A few days ago you would have been able to get Arsenal at odds against to win this game at Goodison Park but the results at the weekend saw Everton continue to struggle in the Premier League and now The Gunners are odds on to win here. I can't really argue with that and I do think Arsenal can continue their strong form which has kept them in touch with Chelsea at the top of the Premier League and keep the momentum behind them before the trip to The Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

Some may want to back Everton as they are still unbeaten at Goodison Park in the Premier League, but this is a side that has needed 89th minute equalisers against Swansea City and Manchester United to maintain that record. Both Swansea City and Manchester United had their chances to extend the lead before being pulled back, but Arsenal are not likely to be as profligate in front of goal.

Giving up the chances that Everton have in recent games is only going to result in another defeat and this is a side that have struggled defensively. Arsenal have scored at least three times in 6 of their last 8 away games and I actually think they will have enough to earn the three points if they score twice in this one.

Everton will offer some problems, but I think Arsenal are considerably stronger in terms of quality available and confidence in front of goal and I like the away side to win here.


Middlesbrough v Liverpool Pick: Jurgen Klopp went on the attack over the criticism his goalkeeper has been getting in the last couple of weeks and was especially upset with the Neville brothers who have been very vocal in those criticisms. I do wonder if that is going to overshadow this game to be played on Wednesday as Liverpool try to get back to winning ways after back to back disappointing results.

Losing a 1-3 lead to Bournemouth in an eventual 4-3 loss was followed by a 2-2 home draw with West Ham United and all of a sudden Liverpool have won 1 of their last 4 Premier League games. They do look very vulnerable in defensive areas, but this Liverpool team continue to show a huge threat when going forward even without Philippe Coutinho.

The question for Middlesbrough is can they find enough in the final third to challenge Liverpool, especially as scoring goals has been one of the tougher aspects for Middlesbrough in their return to the Premier League. They have won 2 of their last 3 home Premier League games, but Middlesbrough were beaten 0-1 by Chelsea and there is no doubt Liverpool present a big challenge for them.

It does have to be noted that Middlesbrough have defended fairly well in recent weeks and they are not a team that have conceded too many goals in their most recent games. However they will have rarely played a team with the pace of Liverpool in the final third and their 0-1 defeat to Chelsea could have been a lot worse on the day, while Middlesbrough should have chances of their own against this Liverpool defence that simply doesn't do clean sheets regularly.

With that in mind this could be another game that features at least three goals this week.


Sunderland v Chelsea Pick: This has often been a controversial part of the Premier League season with manager's focusing on resting players in a League game in anticipation for another. The biggest fallout came when Mick McCarthy did that to a Wolves team visiting Manchester United with a more 'winnable' game days later, but I am not anticipating David Moyes doing that in a home game.

There might be some temptation to do it because Sunderland host Watford in three days time and just came off a bad loss at Swansea City in difficult conditions which might have sapped some energy. With the injuries in the midfield area it would be a surprise if there weren't some changes, although not the wholesale ones McCarthy was criticised for.

Regardless of the team put out this is going to be tough test for Sunderland after the manner of their 3-0 loss at Swansea City. They have won back to back games here, but not against a team like Chelsea who have plenty of confidence behind them and used their counter attack to devastating effect away from home.

Chelsea have won 4 away games in a row in the Premier League and Antonio Conte is likely to have all his big hitters on the field to try and make it 10 in a row in the League overall. Their 4 away wins have been against a mix of opposition, but importantly they have won 3 of those by a couple of goals.

I expect they will create plenty of opportunities to do the same at The Stadium of Light and I think Chelsea snap a recent poor record in this Stadium. I am not sure Sunderland will offer enough of a threat in front of goal to trouble Chelsea and I think the latter will be able to fashion the chances to win this by a couple of goals with Eden Hazard and Diego Costa in form.

Sunderland have taken a couple of heavy losses at home and there might be some focus on the home game with Watford to come so Moyes may decide to give a couple of key players the night off to prepare for that game. I think it will lead to a comfortable win for Chelsea on the day and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap at The Stadium of Light on Wednesday.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: The first thing I noted about this game was how short Manchester United are to win the fixture considering they are away from home and playing a team with plenty of threats in their line up. Despite the improved performances on their travels, that looks too short to back Manchester United and instead I think the best angle for this game is going back to the goals market which has been a profitable angle in Crystal Palace games for some time.

The last 7 Crystal Palace Premier League games have all resulted in at least three goals being produced, while their last 3 at Selhurst Park have gone the same way. This is a team that has plenty of attacking threats with the pace in the wide areas and a player like Christian Benteke who will thrive on service and they are facing a Manchester United team that have offered up some chances with their defensive back four having a few questions to answer.

Antonio Valencia is out and Matteo Darmian struggled on Sunday and this Crystal Palace team have the players out wide like Wilfried Zaha who can cause problems.

On the other hand Crystal Palace have struggled defensively and have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 7 games. The loss of Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a blow for Manchester United as his directness, dribbling skills and pace have been a revelation for this starting eleven, but Manchester United can still create chances with the likes of Juan Mata good enough to fill the Armenian's boots for a couple of games.

Only some poor finishing and some bad luck has prevented Manchester United really taking control of their Premier League games, but the chances they have created should pose a threat to Crystal Palace. Games between these teams haven't always produced goals, but both teams should have chances in this one and it looks like goals is the way to go.

The goals have come a little more freely in Manchester United away Premier League games and this looks an attractive price at bigger than the away win prices. Another Crystal Palace game featuring goals won't be a big surprise.


Manchester City v Watford Pick: This is a really big game for Manchester City who have been struggling of late and need to get back to winning ways to restore some lost confidence. The game at Leicester City was a particular low point for Pep Guardiola as the team came out with little desire or motivation until they were out of the match.

That was a really poor performance compared to the majority they have produced in recent weeks and I am going to mark it down as an exception and perhaps the players never really recovered from being 2-0 down after four minutes. They will miss Sergio Aguero in particular during his suspension, but Manchester City have created plenty of chances when going forward and their 4 game run without a home Premier League win has much to do with poor fortune and finishing.

On another day Manchester City would have crushed Chelsea and there would have been a different feeling about their team. There are problem areas that need to be resolved in the next couple of transfer windows with defensive reinforcements the key for Guardiola to identify, but Manchester City can bounce back against an inconsistent Watford team.

With players like Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Yaya Toure, Nolito, Jesus Navas, David Silva and Kelechi Iheanacho Manchester City have enough quality in the final third to bounce back from the game on Saturday. They will be encouraged by Watford conceding at least three goals in their last 2 away games and I do think the away side might suffer something of a backlash in this fixture.

The problems at the back make it hard to trust Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap, but I think they can produce a solid result in this one. Goals have been hard to come by at The Etihad Stadium in the Premier League, but Manchester City should have the chances to win this one by a couple of goals and I will back them to do that.


Stoke City v Southampton Pick: Once in a while you will look at the prices for a game of football and be surprised by which of the two teams is being favoured and I think this is one of those. I was convinced Stoke City would be going in as the favourite in this game and I would likely have left it alone, but I am not sure why the layers have set Southampton as the favourite instead and I want to take them on.

The Saints have won 1 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and have lost games at Hull City, Sparta Prague and Crystal Palace in recent weeks. It can be said that Stoke City are in better form than the two Premier League teams mentioned, particularly at home, and I do think they can avoid defeat at the very least in this game.

The loss of Charlie Austin is huge for Southampton with the striker accounting for a huge amount of their goals and this is a team that has only scored more than a single goal in 2 of their 11 away games in all competitions this season. It should be remembered that Stoke City did lose 0-1 to Bournemouth here a couple of games ago, but the have won 3 of their last 4 at The Bet365 Stadium and I don't think Southampton will score enough goals to win here.

Stoke City have also been defending well enough at home and they can be backed with the start on the Asian Handicap which will give some payout if they avoid defeat. It will need a Stoke City win for a full payout, but I think they have every chance of getting that this week and this looks a decent way to back the home side.


Tottenham Hotspur v Hull City Pick: Tottenham Hotspur are back up to full health, but they are still finding the consistency hard to come by in what has been a mixed four months of the season. A 1-0 loss at Old Trafford on Sunday means there are now six teams in the race for the top four and Tottenham Hotspur can't afford to drop more points at White Hart Lane where they host both Hull City and Burnley this week.

The first visitors are Hull City who conceded a late goal in a 3-3 draw with Crystal Palace on Saturday which has left them in the bottom three. There will be some encouragement from their recent performances at The KC Stadium, but Hull City still look a strong favourite for relegation as they try and avoid heading to the bottom of the Premier League on Christmas Day which has proved to be a death knell for many clubs over the last twenty-four seasons.

However it is going to be tough for Hull City to do that with two difficult games in London compared with Sunderland, the one team below them in the League table, who have two games at home. Hull City have been better at home, but have just hit a rough patch when it comes to scoring goals in the last few away games they have played.

The side have not scored in any of their last 3 away Premier League games and now face a Tottenham Hotspur team who have their regular centre half pairing back together. That should be enough for Tottenham Hotspur to keep a clean sheet and I think they have enough in the final third to break down Hull City in this one. At just under odds against, I am going to back Tottenham Hotspur to have back to back home clean sheets in the Premier League in another winning effort over a team that is struggling at the wrong end of the table.


Birmingham City v Ipswich Town Pick: Squads are going to be tested in the top two Divisions of English Football with three games scheduled for the week and this looks a tough game for both Birmingham City and Ipswich Town. Neither team has a lot of momentum behind them with some losses in recent weeks, but home advantage could be all important for The Blues.

Playing at St Andrew's has seen Birmingham City produce a number of positive results and they have scored plenty of goals here. The 0-3 defeat to Barnsley last time here is a concerning result, but Birmingham City can bounce back against an Ipswich Town team that have been a little toothless on their travels.

I do think Ipswich Town can make life difficult by keeping their defensive discipline and I don't think there will be a lot of goals in this one. However I do think Birmingham City have found a way to win games at home more often than not and they look a big enough price to be backed to get back to winning ways here.

However I would keep the stakes to a minimum having seen Birmingham City conceded seven times in their last couple of games even if Ipswich Town have shown less of a threat in front of goal than Barnsley and Newcastle United.


Fulham v Rotherham United Pick: The 1-0 win over Queens Park Rangers might turn out to be one of those rare high points for Rotherham United this season as they look to find a way to escape the drop into League One. There is so much work for Rotherham United to do if they want to get out of the bottom three and the problems are that they cannot keep conceding at least twice in every away game they play.

Doing that is going to make it very difficult to earn the points Rotherham United need to pull back the teams above them and they are going to be in for a real test against a free scoring Fulham.

The 4-4 draw at Wolves was an instant classic and means Fulham have scored nine times in their last couple of games. Fulham have scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 at Craven Cottage and they have a couple of 5-0 wins in that time over solid teams like Huddersfield Town and Reading.

Fulham hammered Rotherham United twice in the League last season and I think they might prove too strong again. I am going to back The Cottagers to win by at least a couple of goals on Tuesday by taking them on the Asian Handicap in the knowledge that half my stake will be returned if Fulham win by a single goal margin.


Aston Villa v Norwich City Pick: The television cameras will be heading to Carrow Road for this Championship game between two teams who have underachieved to this point of the season. Momentum can be very important in a tough Division and you have to say that Aston Villa have more of that than Norwich City who have been trending in the opposite direction.

Being at home will give Norwich City encouragement with their better results coming here, but confidence has to be knocked after 5 losses in 6 games which includes a couple of defeats at Carrow Road.

Aston Villa have been improving under Steve Bruce, but they are another team that have kept their best performances at home which is one reason I can't back them to win. However I do think Aston Villa are playing well enough to get a result here and they are a decent price to be backed on the Asian Handicap which will pay out a positive return as long as the away side don't lose the game.

This will be a tight game and Norwich City have to be respected at home, but Aston Villa have proved to be hard to beat since Bruce took over. Leeds United did beat Aston Villa in the latter's last away game, but I think they avoid defeat here at least and I will back them with the Asian Handicap start.


Queens Park Rangers v Derby County Pick: The Championship is one of the more unpredictable Divisions you can find but recent form for Queens Park Rangers and Derby County should point to one winner. While Ian Holloway is trying to find his feet with the former, Steve McClaren has the latter playing some good football and that has seen them produce a number of wins in a row.

This has not been a great ground for Derby County to visit in recent seasons which might play on the mind of the players, but they have been in good form over the last few weeks. The Rams don't concede a lot of goals and they have begun to show a little more clinical play in the final third to do enough to win games.

Derby County are still not as fluent in the final third as they were in McClaren's first tenure here, but they have the second best defence in the Championship. That is likely to be key to this game as they should have chances to score against a Queens Park Rangers team that haven't had a clean sheet in any of their last 7 games.

The concern has to be the 1-1 draw, but I do think Derby County have enough of an edge to back them at odds against to win here. Consecutive away wins should give Derby County confidence to do that and I will back them to win here.


Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United Pick: Visiting Wigan Athletic has been a difficult test for Newcastle United in recent years, but they look the far superior team in this match between two clubs that only played Premier League football within the last four seasons. Wigan Athletic have been on a real slide since being relegated from the Premier League and the differing expectations at these clubs suggests The Magpies won't have a better chance to win only their second game here in nine visits.

The problem I have for Wigan Athletic is that I am not sure they have enough goals to stay with a Newcastle United team that can be punishing going forward. Scoring goals isn't a problem for Newcastle United, but they are also very strong defensively which should restrict what Wigan Athletic are able to do in the final third and gives the away team a real edge.

The layers haven't missed that and Newcastle United go into this one as odds on favourites, but I still think they can be backed. They look considerably stronger than Wigan Athletic and I did think they might even have been asked to cover a couple of goals in winning here for a reasonable pay out.

With Wigan Athletic failing to score in their last 4 home games, I do think the prices for a Newcastle United win to nil is very appealing, and I think a small interest on them doing that has to be the play.

MY PICKS: Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.71 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Birmingham City @ 2.40 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Fulham - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Derby County @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
Newcastle United Win to Nil @ 2.65 Coral (1 Unit)

December Update: 15-17, - 4.04 Units (62 Units Staked, - 6.52% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 142-145-8, + 10.70 Units (555 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)