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Tennis Picks 2022 (June 25th)

The four tournaments being played in three different venues will come to a conclusion on Saturday as the attention has firmly turned to the ...

Friday, 24 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 25th)

The four tournaments being played in three different venues will come to a conclusion on Saturday as the attention has firmly turned to the end of the grass court season.

Everything culminates with the third Grand Slam tournament of the 2022 season as Wimbledon is set to begin on Monday and it looks like we will have two largely dry weeks in South West London.

I will have fuller thoughts on the two draws and potential winners in the Day 1 Picks for the tournament that will get underway soon, but this thread is focused on the conclusion of the warm up events with four Finals scheduled to be played on Saturday.

After a mixed Friday, I am only focusing on the two WTA Finals to be played in Eastbourne and Bad Homburg before my own attention also shifts to Wimbledon. It has been a solid week for the Tennis Picks and one I am looking to round off with a flourish.

Petra Kvitova v Jelena Ostapenko: The two time Wimbledon Champion has come into form at a good time, although I am never convinced that winning a tournament in the week prior to a Grand Slam is the best timing. In saying that, Petra Kvitova needed to pick up some confidence and I am a little surprised to see her set as the underdog in the Final in Eastbourne.

I have to credit the defending Champion Jelena Ostapenko for producing a strong week and she has long been an effective grass court player. The former French Open Champion has a big, aggressive game that is well suited to the surface and Jelena Ostapenko has enjoyed considerable success on the grass courts.

Her numbers have backed that up in recent seasons on the grass, but there is no doubting how much Petra Kvitova enjoys playing on the green stuff herself.

The consistency has been lacking over the last twelve months, but Petra Kvitova has found her serve this week and she has some strong wins behind her. The Semi Final victory over Beatriz Haddad Maia is particularly impressive considering how well the Brazilian has been playing on the grass and Petra Kvitova will feel her serve can at least contain some of the aggressive returning that will be produced by Jelena Ostapenko.

She is also getting plenty of first serves in play to make things a bit easier, while Jelena Ostapenko's first serve percentage will need to be significantly improved to avoid having an aggressive Kvitova get after the second serve. If the firsts are landing, Ostapenko can play first-strike tennis in a Final that should see both players looking to get on the front foot and pile the pressure on their opponent.

I do think that is where the high percentage of first serves landing will give Petra Kvitova an edge, although Jelena Ostapenko has been the stronger returner of the two.

Jelena Ostapenko looks to be peaking in time for the Final, but Petra Kvitova has only faced two break points since her Third Round win over Katie Boulter. I think that is key to the outcome of this one and I think Petra Kvitova will overturn a tight loss to Jelena Ostapenko from their sole meeting in 2022 which came on the hard courts in Dubai.

The Czech lefty was unfortunate that day, but I think she is playing well enough to earn the edges in this Final and can win as the underdog.

Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: The benefit of having a walkover in the Semi Final will have helped Bianca Andreescu in winning this Final, but I also think she has been playing the stronger grass court tennis of the two competing.

I am a little biased towards Bianca Andreescu as a big fan of her tennis, but her numbers have backed up a decent run on the grass courts and I think she could have a strong impact at Wimbledon next week. That will be the focus for the Canadian, but she will also be aware that Angelique Kerber used a title win here to reach the last four at Wimbledon last year and so winning the Bad Homburg tournament could be a huge boost for Bianca Andreescu.

She is up against Caroline Garcia who needed almost three hours on court to win her Semi Final on Friday, while it cannot be ignored that the fortune has been on the side of the Frenchwoman in her run to this Final.

I have to credit Garcia for playing the big points as well as she has, but the margins are tight and she will need to overcome some fatigue, emotional and physical, to be able to win the big points in this one too. Running out of energy will be a tough obstacle to overcome for Caroline Garcia against someone like Bianca Andreescu, while the serve will have to be working as it has been in the last couple of Rounds.

Caroline Garcia has saved twenty-four out of twenty-eight break points faced in her last three matches, but it is hard to imagine her continuing to get out of those jams consistently. In the Final she will be facing a player who has found at least three breaks of serve in every match played on the grass in 2022 and Bianca Andreescu has put a lot of pressure on her opponents by winning 46% of return points played on the surface over the last month.

Her own serve can be a little inconsistent, but Caroline Garcia is not exactly the most dominant of return players and I do think Bianca Andreescu can contain her threat. In her three wins here this week, the former US Open Champion has only been broken three times and has faced just ten break points, which is fewer than Caroline Garcia had to face in just her Quarter Final match alone.

With the additional time to rest, Bianca Andreescu looks like she has all the tools to win her first title since that aforementioned US Open in 2019 as the Canadian begins her climb back to the kind of level she belongs amongst the very elite of the WTA Tour.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 33-26, + 6.06 Units (116 Units Staked, + 5.22% Yield)

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