It's never an easy day when the player you've picked is up in a strong position and the opponent retires from the match, especially when the little moments have gone against you for much of the day.
At least a late winning Pick helped avoid a disastrous start to the week, although I do have work to do after the first day at the tournaments being played on the grass courts. I had a tough moment or two last week, but managed to turn that around so there is still some positive momentum to build upon before Wimbledon begins.
Jenson Brooksby - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: There is limited grass court experience behind him, but reaching the Final in Newport last season is a positive for Jenson Brooksby to take into this month of the Tour. He was disappointingly dumped out of the tournament in Hertogenbosch in the Second Round last week as Brooksby made his 2022 debut on the surface, but the build towards Wimbledon will continue in London this week.
The young American is considered to be one of the brightest talents from the country on the ATP Tour side of the sport, and Jenson Brooksby is up at a career high World Ranking. With no points to defend before Wimbledon, there is every chance that career high will be further improved before the return to the North American hard courts.
Much of that will depend on how many wins he can pick up between now and the end of July and Jenson Brooksby is the favourite in this First Round match in London despite the early defeat last week. He will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more convincing behind the serve, but Jenson Brooksby did return well in Hertogenbosch and I think that gives him a real chance of winning this match.
It also helps he is facing Filip Krajinovic who has not won a grass court match since a Qualifier in Nottingham all the way back in 2015.
In recent years, Filip Krajinovic has only turned up at Wimbledon and lost in the First Round in each of his last three matches there, while he was a First Qualifying Round loser in the year before this streak begun. You have to respect the effectiveness of the serve on the grass courts, but Filip Krajinovic has not gotten to grips with the return of serve and I do think that will see this match lean towards the young American.
You would like to see Jenson Brooksby serve well to keep his opponent contained, but he should have more joy against the returning Filip Krajinovic will bring to the court. With a strong couple of matches returning serve last week, I think Brooksby will have his moments to break the Serb's serve in this one and I think Jenson Brooksby moves through to the Second Round behind a solid win.
Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: Any player that can come through the Qualifiers has to be respected considering they have two wins behind them and will be plenty familiar with the conditions at the tournament.
However, any edge to either of these players is negated by the fact that the opponent has also won a couple of Qualifiers here and I have to give the edge to Emil Ruusuvuori.
The younger player was beaten in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch last week, but Emil Ruusuvuori's game looks well suited to the grass courts. His serve has been effective with 87% of games held on the surface in his matches so far in 2022, and that has backed up the 83% effort from last season, while Emil Ruusuvuori has won 39% of return points on a difficult surface.
Quentin Halys has been serving really well in his four grass court matches in 2022, but he is operating at a level we have not seen from him before and I am wondering if it is sustainable. The serve has been effective for the Frenchman in his career on the grass courts, but his return game has usually been a hindrance and I am not sure he can maintain the 27% number of returning games ending with a break for the entirety of the grass court season.
The career number is down at 12% and I do think Emil Ruusuvuori has a higher ceiling than Quentin Halys and he can show that here.
Both will feel they can serve their way out of trouble, but I will look for the more consistent level that Emil Ruusuvuori can produce to show up on the return of serve.
The two players will be confident with the Qualifying wins behind them, but I will look for the Finnish player to back that up and cover this spread on the way through.
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Dan Evans: There was some initial rustiness in his performance in Stuttgart, but the return to grass court tennis suited Matteo Berrettini down to the ground as he won another title on the surface.
Most impressive is that he won that title after missing the entire clay court season with an injury and he will head to London to defend the Queens title he won in 2021. It won't be easy with the limited time to recover from the exploits of winning the title in Stuttgart, but the Italian will have good memories of playing here and his opponent will also have some residue fatigue to deal with.
Daniel Evans won the Challenger event played in Nottingham last week as he got his grass court campaign underway and that means he has had little rest between tournaments too. Of course his travel to London will be different compared with Matteo Berrettini's from another country, but I don't think professional tennis players are unfamiliar with having to cope and Berrettini will be arriving with plenty of confidence.
His serve is a mighty weapon on the grass courts and he can get himself out of tough spots, while Matteo Berrettini is able to free up and attack return games with some of the pressure taken off by the power of the serve. Over the last twelve months, Matteo Berrettini has produced a 15-1 record on the grass courts and has been able to hold 93% of his service games played, while he was able to hold 94% of service games payed in Stuttgart on his way to the title there.
It puts a huge amount of pressure on Daniel Evans, although the British player has a surprisingly efficient serve on the grass courts.
Over the last twelve months, Evans has held 90% of his service games played with 66% of service points won, while he does have the edge when it comes to the returning numbers.
However, the numbers come down pretty significantly on both the serve and return when only looking at Daniel Evans' performances against top 50 Ranked opponents in the last twelve months. And against someone like Matteo Berrettini, Daniel Evans has the additional pressure on knowing any drop in serve likely means the end of the set against a power server like the Italian.
Experience will tell Daniel Evans that too having been beaten by Matteo Berrettini at this tournament twelve months ago.
The Quarter Final between them was competitive, but Matteo Berrettini's serve proved to be the big difference with 75% of service points won compared with Daniel Evans' mark of 66%. It led to the former finding nine break point chances compared with Evans' two break point opportunities and I do think the Stuttgart Champion and defending Champion here will be able to get his defence off to a promising start.
MY PICKS: Jenson Brooksby - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.56 Units (8 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)
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