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Tuesday 21 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 21st)

On a day when 66% of the Picks that were completed returned winners, you should be positive.

But I can't help feel that meat was still left on the table and that can be frustrating when you believe it was a day in which more winners should have been produced.

The Sebastian Korda pick was a bad one, but he has withdrawn from Wimbledon and is clearly not feeling himself.

However, Alison Riske had so many chances to win her match in straight sets and it felt like she was at 0-30 against serve for much of the second set without getting over the line. I truly believe the breaks would have been like London buses (wait for one when two or three come at once), but it was not meant to be.

Later on Taro Daniel reminded me why he is the player I just can't get a read on for love nor money- whenever I back against him he seems to be a pressure point playing demon, which makes me wonder how he continues to flounder outside the top 100 of the World Rankings.

But back him? He will make you regret that too.

His late break after saving break points in multiple service games ensured he covered to end the day at 8-4 rather than 9-3, but I will always appreciate a plus day.

Bad Homburg saw much of their schedule rained out and that meant the Bianca Andreescu pick will be played on Tuesday.


Dan Evans - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Two competent grass court players will be looking to put a solid tournament under their belts before Wimbledon begins and I think this will be a competitive First Round match in Eastbourne.

Dan Evans has won a title on the grass courts this season, albeit at the Challenger level, but was beaten in the First Round in Queens. He looks like he will be Seeded at Wimbledon, and he has the potential to have a solid run at the third Grand Slam of the season.

Matches like this will give us a pretty good indication as to where Dan Evans feels his own game is as he goes up against the veteran Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch, but he has dropped out of the top 70 of the World Rankings and surprisingly chose to miss out on the Qualifying events at the big grass court tournaments that were played last week.

Adrian Mannarino looks to be a declining force, but had three solid wins in Hertogenbosch which have to be respected. The loss to Daniil Medvedev came in a close match, while Mannarino was perhaps more disappointed with the defeat to Ryan Peniston in Surbiton at the end of May.

Having a lefty serve makes Adrian Mannarino dangerous and he has long been a solid performer on the grass, although his numbers in recent seasons shows the overall decline he is on. Someone like Dan Evans should be a step above him now and the British player also holds a 3-1 head to head advantage, which can help in what are expected to be close matches.

They have split the two previous grass court matches played against one another, although it was Dan Evans who beat Adrian Mannarino when they met at Queens last year. The serve was dominant for Evans on that day and he has held 88% of his service games on the grass courts this season compared with Mannarino's 83% mark.

The last three matches between these opponents have all been won by Dan Evans and he has had a big edge when it comes to the serve in those too. I expect that could be the difference between Evans and Adrian Mannarino in the First Round here too and he can do just enough to edge past this handicap mark set on his way to the Second Round.


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 games v Pedro Martinez: Two Spaniards who would much prefer to be playing clay court tennis than grass court tennis will be meeting in the First Round in Eastbourne in the final warm up event before Wimbledon.

However, to give both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pedro Martinez their credit, both have produced some big results on the grass courts and can have an impact on the surface.

Last week was a disappointment for Pedro Martinez who was beaten early at Queens, but he did reach the Third Round at Wimbledon last season and beat Gael Monfils during that run. I have to respect that, but Pedro Martinez is just 1-4 in grass court matches outside of the two wins at Wimbledon in 2021 and he was well beaten last week.

His opponent hasn't exactly got a grass court record to write home about, but Davidovich Fokina did reach the Quarter Final in London last week.

Being friends does change the dynamic of the match a little bit and I am a little wary of asking one of them to be able to cover a big spread, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina may have a bit more quality with his grass court tennis and that can be key to the outcome of the match.

I expect to see breaks of serve both ways, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did hold 77% of his service games last week, while Pedro Martinez was put under immense pressure by Francisco Cerundolo in his defeat. I think that could be the case here and Davidovich Fokina can work his way into a position to cover this mark as he moves through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.24 Units (24 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)

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