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Showing posts with label Bad Homburg Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bad Homburg Picks. Show all posts

Friday, 24 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 25th)

The four tournaments being played in three different venues will come to a conclusion on Saturday as the attention has firmly turned to the end of the grass court season.

Everything culminates with the third Grand Slam tournament of the 2022 season as Wimbledon is set to begin on Monday and it looks like we will have two largely dry weeks in South West London.

I will have fuller thoughts on the two draws and potential winners in the Day 1 Picks for the tournament that will get underway soon, but this thread is focused on the conclusion of the warm up events with four Finals scheduled to be played on Saturday.

After a mixed Friday, I am only focusing on the two WTA Finals to be played in Eastbourne and Bad Homburg before my own attention also shifts to Wimbledon. It has been a solid week for the Tennis Picks and one I am looking to round off with a flourish.


Petra Kvitova v Jelena Ostapenko: The two time Wimbledon Champion has come into form at a good time, although I am never convinced that winning a tournament in the week prior to a Grand Slam is the best timing. In saying that, Petra Kvitova needed to pick up some confidence and I am a little surprised to see her set as the underdog in the Final in Eastbourne.

I have to credit the defending Champion Jelena Ostapenko for producing a strong week and she has long been an effective grass court player. The former French Open Champion has a big, aggressive game that is well suited to the surface and Jelena Ostapenko has enjoyed considerable success on the grass courts.

Her numbers have backed that up in recent seasons on the grass, but there is no doubting how much Petra Kvitova enjoys playing on the green stuff herself.

The consistency has been lacking over the last twelve months, but Petra Kvitova has found her serve this week and she has some strong wins behind her. The Semi Final victory over Beatriz Haddad Maia is particularly impressive considering how well the Brazilian has been playing on the grass and Petra Kvitova will feel her serve can at least contain some of the aggressive returning that will be produced by Jelena Ostapenko.

She is also getting plenty of first serves in play to make things a bit easier, while Jelena Ostapenko's first serve percentage will need to be significantly improved to avoid having an aggressive Kvitova get after the second serve. If the firsts are landing, Ostapenko can play first-strike tennis in a Final that should see both players looking to get on the front foot and pile the pressure on their opponent.

I do think that is where the high percentage of first serves landing will give Petra Kvitova an edge, although Jelena Ostapenko has been the stronger returner of the two.

Jelena Ostapenko looks to be peaking in time for the Final, but Petra Kvitova has only faced two break points since her Third Round win over Katie Boulter. I think that is key to the outcome of this one and I think Petra Kvitova will overturn a tight loss to Jelena Ostapenko from their sole meeting in 2022 which came on the hard courts in Dubai.

The Czech lefty was unfortunate that day, but I think she is playing well enough to earn the edges in this Final and can win as the underdog.


Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: The benefit of having a walkover in the Semi Final will have helped Bianca Andreescu in winning this Final, but I also think she has been playing the stronger grass court tennis of the two competing.

I am a little biased towards Bianca Andreescu as a big fan of her tennis, but her numbers have backed up a decent run on the grass courts and I think she could have a strong impact at Wimbledon next week. That will be the focus for the Canadian, but she will also be aware that Angelique Kerber used a title win here to reach the last four at Wimbledon last year and so winning the Bad Homburg tournament could be a huge boost for Bianca Andreescu.

She is up against Caroline Garcia who needed almost three hours on court to win her Semi Final on Friday, while it cannot be ignored that the fortune has been on the side of the Frenchwoman in her run to this Final.

I have to credit Garcia for playing the big points as well as she has, but the margins are tight and she will need to overcome some fatigue, emotional and physical, to be able to win the big points in this one too. Running out of energy will be a tough obstacle to overcome for Caroline Garcia against someone like Bianca Andreescu, while the serve will have to be working as it has been in the last couple of Rounds.

Caroline Garcia has saved twenty-four out of twenty-eight break points faced in her last three matches, but it is hard to imagine her continuing to get out of those jams consistently. In the Final she will be facing a player who has found at least three breaks of serve in every match played on the grass in 2022 and Bianca Andreescu has put a lot of pressure on her opponents by winning 46% of return points played on the surface over the last month.

Her own serve can be a little inconsistent, but Caroline Garcia is not exactly the most dominant of return players and I do think Bianca Andreescu can contain her threat. In her three wins here this week, the former US Open Champion has only been broken three times and has faced just ten break points, which is fewer than Caroline Garcia had to face in just her Quarter Final match alone.

With the additional time to rest, Bianca Andreescu looks like she has all the tools to win her first title since that aforementioned US Open in 2019 as the Canadian begins her climb back to the kind of level she belongs amongst the very elite of the WTA Tour.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 33-26, + 6.06 Units (116 Units Staked, + 5.22% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 24th)

The Wimbledon draw will be made bright and early on Friday morning with the tournament set to begin on Monday- the weather is forecasted for a pretty good two weeks in London and I think it should be a decent third Grand Slam of the season, even after the decision to ban certain nationalities and with the Ranking points removed.

It is a crucial draw for many and I will have a few more thoughts about that on Sunday when I should have the Day 1 Picks thread up.

For now the focus is on rounding out this week and a strong Thursday has put the Tennis Picks in a position to finish with a solid positive number.

All the Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday with the four Finals set to for a Saturday finish so all players can make their way to SW19 and be ready to compete.


MY PICKS: Maxime Cressy @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut-Antoine Bellier Over 20.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 30-22, + 8.98 Units (102 Units Staked, + 8.80% Yield)

Thursday, 23 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 23rd)

It was a mixed day which looked like it was going to be a really bad one for a long time as those inches I've talked about were all going against me.

A late rally prevented it being a really poor day, but I am looking for better results to take into the final three days of the events being played this week and then to carry that forward into Wimbledon.

I have a right to be a touch irritated with the way a couple of the losing Picks came about- Tallon Griekspoor won, but I could never have imagined him losing a set 6-0, while Dan Evans had a chance to get back on serve in the second set at 5-4, 0-40, and that would have been enough for the two setter to cover the total games line set.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Thursday, but there are wetter conditions around in Eastbourne and Mallorca and it may mean delays or matches having to be moved to the outside courts to make sure the tournament is down to the final four in both the ATP and WTA event being played there by the time the day's play is completed.


Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Tommy Paul: For most players the focus will have turned to Wimbledon and making sure they are ready to compete at the third Grand Slam of the season, but that is a tournament without Ranking points. There will be a number of players that will be disappointed to have heard the news, but it also means that some are out there this week looking to make sure they produce some healthy results in order to avoid a massive drop in the Rankings.

Motivation for Alex De Minaur shouldn't be a problem having won the title here in Eastbourne last year and knowing that he suffered a First Round exit at Wimbledon. That defeat may mean he is not as keen to have to dig deep over the next couple of days, but the fact he is looking after some big Ranking points should help keep the Australian focused.

With days remaining until Wimbledon begins, you have to factor in the motivational angles and I do think the defending Champion will want to pick up another title here. Alex De Minaur has played well in his two wins in the tournament and is clearly enjoying the conditions, although it will feel different on Thursday with the rain cooling the temperature down, while De Minaur may not be exactly sure where he will be playing this match.

That shouldn't affect the mindset as Alex De Minaur takes on Tommy Paul for the third time in 2022 having won the previous two matches in straight sets. This is the third surface on which Paul and De Minaur will be competing, but the latter has long suggested grass is his favourite of the surfaces on which the Tour is played and I am not sure the same can be said for Tommy Paul.

The American had not played any grass court tennis since 2019, but he did reach the Quarter Final in London last week and has backed that up with another couple of wins in Eastbourne. However, Tommy Paul has not been the most convincing of performer and has perhaps benefited from the small margins edging his way at key times during matches to earn the victories.

Tommy Paul has held 85% of his service games played on the grass this season, but he is only winning 63% of the points played behind that shot. Those are decent enough numbers, although the main problem for Tommy Paul is his limited return game on the grass and I do think Alex De Minaur can largely keep him under pressure with his own serve.

Alex De Minaur has won 66% of his points played behind serve, but he has only held 81% of his service games and that is largely down to a really poor effort on the break points. He has faced nineteen break points in his four grass court matches, but De Minaur has been broken ten times and you do have to feel he has to get better on those pressure points against someone like Tommy Paul who has broken in 16% of return games.

There is no doubt that Alex De Minaur has been the more efficient return player and that has also shown up in their head to head matches this season with the Australian holding 81% of service games compared with Tommy Paul's 69% mark and I think that will also be the case in this Quarter Final.

It can be tough to really be confident in Alex De Minaur, but he does tend to beat the players expected and I think he will have too much for Tommy Paul who has ridden his luck at times to put together the wins he has this past month.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-19, - 0.54 Units (78 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Wednesday, 22 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 22nd)

All of the events being played this week are scheduled to be concluded on Saturday, a couple of days before Wimbledon begins.

That means the middle of the week is perhaps busier than usual with the the tournaments looking to whittle down to the last eight ahead of the Thursday Quarter Finals. A busy day means a fair few Tennis Picks from the matches set to be played as I look for a slightly more consistent day after a mixed Tuesday.

Some of the matches have not been priced up at the time of writing and any Picks will be added to this thread as those markets are released.


Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 games v Alex Molcan: He may not be the player he once was, but beating Feliciano Lopez on a grass court is still a tough challenge and Tallon Griekspoor has to be credited for keeping himself focused to secure the victory through a couple of tie-breakers. The raw numbers showed it was a tough day in the office with the Lopez serve a difficult shot to deal with, but Tallon Griekspoor served well enough himself and that is going to be an important shot for him over the next couple of weeks.

Ultimately the return is where Griekspoor is going to have difficulties in progressing his career if he cannot find a bit more out of that side of his game. On the faster surfaces it has been a real issue for the Dutchman and it has been the case during this grass court season with just 31% of points won on the return and that has led to 11% of return games ending in a break of serve.

It has not prevented Tallon Griekspoor winning five of the seven grass court matches played this month and that is down to the 94% of service games being held to build scoreboard pressure.

He is much more experienced than Alex Molcan, one of the improving players on the Tour, although the Slovakian has earned a solid win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the First Round here in Mallorca. The serve is an important shot for Alex Molcan on all surfaces and he has been pounding through those games efficiently in his two grass court matches, although the question for him is the same for his opponent and that is finding a way to improve the returning side of his game.

The two grass court matches has seen Alex Molcan break in just 9% of return games played as he has won 29% of return points played.

This will be a match that is going to be won and lost in the small margins, but Tallon Griekspoor may hold the mental edge having beaten Alex Molcan a couple of times on the Tour already. One of those wins came in Halle last week and Tallon Griekspoor has yet to be broken in their two previous matches, while the inches have been with him on the return.

Tallon Griekspoor has created fifteen break points compared with Alex Molcan's two in their previous matches and that includes a four to one edge last week in Halle. The Dutchman looks like he could hold the slight edge in this one too and I think his serving will build enough scoreboard pressure to find a way to edge past Alex Molcan and cover this line set for the Second Round match.


Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: The World Ranking points are being removed from Wimbledon 2021 over the next couple of weeks and that could have a significant impact on Denis Shapovalov who reached the Semi Final at that event. There are no Ranking points on offer at Wimbledon this year and the Canadian has had a mixed season to this point which means a drop in the World Ranking was expected any way.

He will be Seeded at Wimbledon, but it is important for Denis Shapovalov to try and build some confidence and momentum this week in Mallorca. I am a little surprised he decided to leave England to take in this tournament rather than playing in Eastbourne (or playing Halle rather than Queens last week), but Denis Shapovalov is looking for positive results on the court and a change in conditions may suit him.

Last year Denis Shapovalov really enjoyed his time on the grass, but the loss of confidence since then has contributed to him losing his first match in Stuttgart and London. He has not played badly, but the pressure points have not been played as he would have liked and it has meant Denis Shapovalov has lost matches perhaps a little undeservingly so.

Ultimately you only get the results that you can cross over the line and Denis Shapovalov will need to serve well and hope that can put him in a position to win this match. The Canadian has held 88% of his service games played over the last couple of grass tournaments and was at 89% last season when reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final, but Denis Shapovalov has struggled on the return.

He is going to be tested on that side of his tennis by Benjamin Bonzi who has a solid 13-4 record on the grass courts, although the Frenchman has built that largely against players Ranked outside the top 100. In fact, Benjamin Bonzi has a 2-3 record against top 100 Ranked players on this surface, although you should not ignore the fact that both of those were recorded over the last couple of weeks and Bonzi did push Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets in a defeat in Halle.

Benjamin Bonzi has held 95% of his service games played on the grass in 2022, while he certainly has gotten a bit more out of his return than Denis Shapovalov. He created ten break points against a decent server like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Benjamin Bonzi only faced four break points on his own serve so will feel he has the weapons to try and contain Denis Shapovalov in this Second Round match.

You have to believe Denis Shapovalov will be able to roll through some service games of his own and I do think the limited break opportunities could see this Second Round match surpassing the total games line set.

With a very high percentage of service games being held, I do think we will see at least one tie-breaker on the day and that can set this match on the way to a number of games to surpass the line where it is at right now.


Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 22.5 games: The head to head with Emil Ruusuvuori clearly is one that Ilya Ivashka enjoys, but he has not had the same success against Stefanos Tsitsipas with two losses from their two Tour meetings. Both have been pretty one-sided losses too with the Belarusian struggling with the return of serve, but Ilya Ivashka has to feel that the grass courts could be a leveller for him.

He has long been comfortable on this surface and Ilya Ivashka may have felt he could have had a solid impact at Wimbledon if the tournament had not decided to go rogue and ban Belarusian and Russian players from competing. Some may have felt disheartened, but Ilya Ivashka has played some solid grass court tennis this month and his only losses have both come at the hands of World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev.

Both have been competitive losses and Ivashka has been holding 91% of the service games played on the surface and that is a strong number. He has won 68% of points behind serve and that is a number that will make it difficult for a returner like Stefanos Tsitsipas to break him.

While a still improving player, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled with his return on the grass and he does not look completely comfortable with how best to approach this side of his tennis. Over the last couple of weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to have a really strong grass court tournament and he has won just 28% of points against the serve and that has produced breaks in 10% of return games played.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed facing the Ilya Ivashka serve, but one of those matches was on a clay court on which the Greek player is much more comfortable than he is on the grass.

It will mean pressure on his own serve, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 69% of points behind serve and he will believe it is a shot that can contain his opponent in the Second Round in Mallorca.

The serve has certainly been too much for Ilya Ivashka to deal with in their previous matches and this could be another match in which the players are able to roll through service games and need tie-breakers to separate them. While holding a mental edge from their previous head to head meetings, Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be as comfortable as Ilya Ivashka is on the grass courts and that could make this match the most competitive of the three between them.

Motivation could be a question for Stefanos Tsitsipas if he falls behind in the match with Wimbledon fast approaching, but I do think he wants to at least put a couple of wins on the board before heading to London. I don't expect anything less than a full effort from Ilya Ivashka with this being his last grass court tournament of the month and with two strong servers and two relatively average return players, I think this match will surpass the total set for the match.

MY PICKS: Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Giron @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sebastian Baez-Daniel Altmaier Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ryan Peniston - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-9, + 5.10 Units (42 Units Staked, + 12.14% Yield)

Tuesday, 21 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 21st)

On a day when 66% of the Picks that were completed returned winners, you should be positive.

But I can't help feel that meat was still left on the table and that can be frustrating when you believe it was a day in which more winners should have been produced.

The Sebastian Korda pick was a bad one, but he has withdrawn from Wimbledon and is clearly not feeling himself.

However, Alison Riske had so many chances to win her match in straight sets and it felt like she was at 0-30 against serve for much of the second set without getting over the line. I truly believe the breaks would have been like London buses (wait for one when two or three come at once), but it was not meant to be.

Later on Taro Daniel reminded me why he is the player I just can't get a read on for love nor money- whenever I back against him he seems to be a pressure point playing demon, which makes me wonder how he continues to flounder outside the top 100 of the World Rankings.

But back him? He will make you regret that too.

His late break after saving break points in multiple service games ensured he covered to end the day at 8-4 rather than 9-3, but I will always appreciate a plus day.

Bad Homburg saw much of their schedule rained out and that meant the Bianca Andreescu pick will be played on Tuesday.


Dan Evans - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Two competent grass court players will be looking to put a solid tournament under their belts before Wimbledon begins and I think this will be a competitive First Round match in Eastbourne.

Dan Evans has won a title on the grass courts this season, albeit at the Challenger level, but was beaten in the First Round in Queens. He looks like he will be Seeded at Wimbledon, and he has the potential to have a solid run at the third Grand Slam of the season.

Matches like this will give us a pretty good indication as to where Dan Evans feels his own game is as he goes up against the veteran Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch, but he has dropped out of the top 70 of the World Rankings and surprisingly chose to miss out on the Qualifying events at the big grass court tournaments that were played last week.

Adrian Mannarino looks to be a declining force, but had three solid wins in Hertogenbosch which have to be respected. The loss to Daniil Medvedev came in a close match, while Mannarino was perhaps more disappointed with the defeat to Ryan Peniston in Surbiton at the end of May.

Having a lefty serve makes Adrian Mannarino dangerous and he has long been a solid performer on the grass, although his numbers in recent seasons shows the overall decline he is on. Someone like Dan Evans should be a step above him now and the British player also holds a 3-1 head to head advantage, which can help in what are expected to be close matches.

They have split the two previous grass court matches played against one another, although it was Dan Evans who beat Adrian Mannarino when they met at Queens last year. The serve was dominant for Evans on that day and he has held 88% of his service games on the grass courts this season compared with Mannarino's 83% mark.

The last three matches between these opponents have all been won by Dan Evans and he has had a big edge when it comes to the serve in those too. I expect that could be the difference between Evans and Adrian Mannarino in the First Round here too and he can do just enough to edge past this handicap mark set on his way to the Second Round.


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 games v Pedro Martinez: Two Spaniards who would much prefer to be playing clay court tennis than grass court tennis will be meeting in the First Round in Eastbourne in the final warm up event before Wimbledon.

However, to give both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pedro Martinez their credit, both have produced some big results on the grass courts and can have an impact on the surface.

Last week was a disappointment for Pedro Martinez who was beaten early at Queens, but he did reach the Third Round at Wimbledon last season and beat Gael Monfils during that run. I have to respect that, but Pedro Martinez is just 1-4 in grass court matches outside of the two wins at Wimbledon in 2021 and he was well beaten last week.

His opponent hasn't exactly got a grass court record to write home about, but Davidovich Fokina did reach the Quarter Final in London last week.

Being friends does change the dynamic of the match a little bit and I am a little wary of asking one of them to be able to cover a big spread, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina may have a bit more quality with his grass court tennis and that can be key to the outcome of the match.

I expect to see breaks of serve both ways, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did hold 77% of his service games last week, while Pedro Martinez was put under immense pressure by Francisco Cerundolo in his defeat. I think that could be the case here and Davidovich Fokina can work his way into a position to cover this mark as he moves through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.24 Units (24 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)

Monday, 20 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 20th)

The final week before any Grand Slam can be a difficult one to negotiate as far as Tennis Picks are concerned and that is largely down to the chance of there being a lack of motivation to have a deep run with a big tournament coming up.

However, the WTA event in Eastbourne is one of the bigger events on the Tour, while the top names are largely absent in the two ATP tournaments being played. That should mean players will be looking to put solid results together to build some confidence, while others know they will not be able to compete at the third Slam of the season and so may not be worried about conserving energy.


It is a week in which I will be keeping an eye on the early results and making sure I am not in the same kind of hole as I found myself last week.

The late bounce back was not completely satisfactory, but it does mean having some momentum to take into what is a very busy week of tennis as the final approach towards Wimbledon is taken.


Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: With Wimbledon out of bounds for those representing Russia and Belarus, it might be hard to find the motivation for players from those nations to put in a big week in the final one before the third Grand Slam of the season begins. However, I do think the Ranking points that can be earned should be motivation enough and there are plenty of events to play next month and then in the lead to the US Open to make up for the disappointment of missing the event in South West London that is a week away from getting going.

Players like Ilya Ivashka may not have been a genuine title contender at Wimbledon, but he is close to surpassing his career best World Ranking and has been a pretty solid player on the grass courts.

The serve is a potent weapon for Ilya Ivashka who has held 90% of his service games played on the grass courts over the last couple of weeks. Only Daniil Medvedev has ended his runs in Hertogenbosch and Halle, but Ilya Ivashka is on the opposite side of the draw in Mallorca this week and will be hoping that serve can help him out of difficult spots.

His return numbers have not hit the kind of marks that Ivashka has reached in 2019 and 2021 on the grass courts, but he can be an effective return player.

It was that side of his game that saw Ilya Ivashka beat Emil Ruusuvuori in Hertogenbosch and I am a little surprised the latter has decided to leave England and play in this event in Mallorca rather than playing in Eastbourne. The travel back and forth shouldn't be a major issue, while Emil Ruusuvuori may feel more confident having Qualified for Queens last week and then reaching the Quarter Final.

Emil Ruusuvuori has not really had the time to adjust as he may have liked having played in London on Friday and this match scheduled for Monday, but again I am not expecting that to be a major factor. The Finn has been serving very well on the grass courts and he will be looking to be more efficient with his performance behind that shot compared with how he played against Ivashka in Holland.

However, the head to head has shown that Ilya Ivashka has been more productive on the return of serve compared with Emil Ruusuvuori and that was the bottom line in Hertogenbosch as Ivashka beat this opponent for a fourth time in a row. In those wins, Ilya Ivashka has held 89% of his service games compared with Emil Ruusvuori's 50% mark and the former did not face a break point when these players met a couple of weeks ago.

The run in Queens will give Emil Ruusuvuori more confidence, but it may not be enough to bridge the gap in this match up and I think Ilya Ivashka can win and cover.

MY PICKS: Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tallon Griekspoor-Feliciano Lopez Over 22.5 Games @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 0.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Harriet Dart @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 0.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)