And for about an hour on Friday, I felt things were just not going to get much better as two players I picked won the first set of their matches and were then beaten in three sets.
Both of those were at close to odds against plays (one was odds against) and one of the players had been up a break in the second set before falling away.
At that point I honestly thought this was going to be one of those weeks where bad fortune and bad Picks were going to combine to really batter the numbers.
But then things changed...
After a 1-2 start on Friday with those aforementioned three set defeats, the Tennis Picks surged to a 7-1 conclusion for the day and almost completely wiped out the deep hole the numbers had been in through the first four days of the week.
Even then I feel it could have been even better, but I have to be very happy with the outcome of the Quarter Final matches and now we are down to the final two days at the events being played this week.
Conditions were very difficult for the two Great Britain based tournaments on Friday, but Saturday looks to be cooler all around, especially at the WTA Birmingham event. However, rain is also expected both in Birmingham and London so both tournaments are expected to be impacted.
It will be much tougher in Germany though with the heatwave moving across Europe hitting this weekend in time for the Semi Final and Final matches in Berlin and Halle. You have to factor those into your plays, but most of the players left in the draws should be used to what they have to deal with.
Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios over 23.5 games: It has been hot in Halle all week, but the temperature rockets upwards over the weekend and I do think that is only going to favour the server even more than usual.
Both of these Semi Finalists have been dominant behind serve so far this week and I do think that both Hubert Hurkacz and Nick Kyrgios are likely going to keep that going against each other.
You have to give Nick Kyrgios the edge when it comes to the returning numbers this week in his run to the Semi Final, but he has struggled against the first serve of both Daniel Altmaier and Stefanos Tsitsipas before overwhelming Pablo Carreno Busta. While the earlier Rounds saw Hubert Hurkacz with his first serve percentage, he landed 65% of them in his Quarter Final upset of Felix Auger-Aliassime and that will be the key to any success that the Polish player is going to have in this match.
He has not been as consistent with the first serve as he would like, but found a rhythm on Friday and that will give Hubert Hurkacz every opportunity to get in front of the scoreboard and keep the pressure on Nick Kyrgios.
The Australian has played the big points well on the return of serve this week, which makes him dangerous, but he will need some help from Hubert Hurkacz to get into a position to break serve.
However, Nick Kyrgios will be very confident in his own serve and looking for that shot to put Hubert Hurkacz under pressure. The latter admitted he could not get a read of the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve in the Quarter Final and resorted to guessing, but it will be that much harder to produce effective returns against someone like Nick Kyrgios who is landing 64% of first serves an winning 83% of points behind that shot.
With a limited return, Hubert Hurkacz is going to have to serve well to make this a competitive match, but he showed he can handle the pressure of a serve-dominated match on Friday. A hot day in Halle is likely going to make the ball fly a little faster all around and I would expect to see at least one tie-breaker between these two very strong servers, especially as both Nick Kyrgios and Hubert Hurkacz can be a little bit hit and miss with their return.
Both have been winning over 71% of their service points played and I would not be surprised if this is a match that comes down to one or two points in tie-breakers to determine the outcome. A place in the Final is going to mean plenty of motivation to take to the court, and it should mean even dropping the first set is not going to see heads drop and we may even need a decider to see who can earn their spot as a Finalist in Halle.
MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Oscar Otte Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cori Gauff @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 24-22, - 1.44 Units (92 Units Staked, - 1.57% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment