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Wednesday, 4 March 2026

Indian Wells Tennis Day 1 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 4th March)

The three weeks following the Australian Open were not as productive as the opening Grand Slam of the season for the Tennis Picks, but the solid return at the ATP Dubai event has pushed the season totals back in a positive direction.

The Final was not played in Dubai after Tallon Griekspoor decided he could not compete with the injury suffered in the Semi Final, but that tournament was unlikely to be concluded after escalating tensions in the Middle East led to open warfare in the region.

It is a concerning time for all, but the sporting world will try and continue and the Indian Wells Masters opens March with the first of two really important events.

This is also the time of the season when the opening hard court run comes to a conclusion and both Tours will soon turn the attention to the French Open.

We have had some clay court tennis played in South America, but the Tours will head back to Europe at the end of the Miami Masters later this month and that is when the serious push towards the French Open will begin with some big tournaments to be played.


Over recent years, most will have noted the conditions in Indian Wells and how different the hard courts play in the desert compared with the other North American hard court tournaments.

This has to be factored into the selections being made, but it has been a difficult tournament to read and that will also be considered.

Both ATP and WTA tournaments will be beginning on Wednesday and it will feature a similar schedule to Grand Slam events with the two halves of each draw being split to play on alternate days.

Unsurprisingly the fields are loaded with the best names on the Tour, including returning players like Aryna Sabalenka who have not been out on the court since Melbourne.

The top names will be entering the Masters event in the Second Round, which begins on Friday, but the First Round gets going on Wednesday and completed on Thursday before those big names enter the fray in what is long considered to be the 'biggest' tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.


McCartney Kessler - 1.5 games v Zeynep Sonmez: Indian Wells may be described as the 'fifth Major', but this hard court tournament plays pretty differently to most on the Tour.

Adjustments have to be made to the criteria for selections compared with some of the other hard court events played through the course of the year.

That does not only apply to those of us watching, but the players themselves have to made adjustments in a tournament where the return has been very important. Most hard courts may favour stronger serving, but that has not always been the case in Indian Wells where the wind can pick up and the ball can fly through the air very quickly at times.

McCartney Kessler is the sole selection from the host of First Round matches to be played on Wednesday as the main draw gets underway in both the WTA and ATP events.

The American should be a little more familiar all around with the differences in events played in her country and Kessler has played in the main draw here before. Last season she was beaten in the Second Round by Aryna Sabalenka, but McCartney Kessler has been growing on the Tour and had much stronger runs at other WTA 1000 events played on the hard courts as the season progressed.

The 4-3 record to open 2026 may not inspire, but McCartney Kessler has been in with tough competition for the majority of those matches. That is certainly the case in terms of the World Rankings of opponents faced and Kessler has still been able to produce some solid numbers overall.

Her opponent has an 8-6 record on the hard courts in 2026, but half of those wins have been in Qualifying settings and Zeynep Sonmez had lost four hard court matches in a row before reaching the Quarter Final in Merida last week.

The World Number 80 has built her opening record on getting the better of weaker players on the Tour and the 3-6 mark against top 100 Ranked opponents has to be a concern. Zeynep Sonmez actually upset the highest Ranked opponent she has faced in Ekaterina Alexandrova (World Number 11) at the Australian Open, but none of the other matches have been against anyone Ranked higher than World Number 39 and that makes the record look a little weaker.

The serve has really been an issue in those nine matches and McCartney Kessler may be able to tee off on some of the returns to get on the front foot in the rally.

It also should be said that Zaynep Sonmez has produced a slightly weaker return than the American and it may lead to the higher Ranked player coming through with a solid win.

A concern has to be the back issue that forced McCartney Kessler to miss the Middle East swing after reaching the Quarter Final in Abu Dhabi, but that is factored into the odds.

MY PICKS: McCartney Kessler - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 62-46, + 15.25 Units (174 Units Staked, + 8.76% Yield)