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NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Sunday, 31 March 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke (Sunday 31st March)

There have been some criticisms of Boxxer both from journalists for some of the people they are associating with and from fans about some of the decisions taken for the boxers in their stable, but they have made a smart decision to get this card over the line.

Having it taking place on Easter Sunday and right after two big Premier League games is ideal.

The fact it is available to subscribers without the need to buy a Pay-Per-View event looks to be a solid addition to the weekend sporting action and the card is topped by a very good looking Heavyweight bout.


We do have a pretty good American card taking place in the early hours of Sunday morning for those of us tuning in this side of the pond, and you can read my thoughts about that card here.



Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke

This is a fight that could have taken place twelve months ago, but a decision made by Boxxer to withdraw Frazer Clarke from an ordered purse bid left their fighter 'distraught' and open to ridicule.

All of that will be forgotten if he can get the better of Fabio Wardley when they do meet in London on Easter Sunday and it is perhaps a surprise that the white collar boxer is a considerable favourite to beat an amateur who took part in the Olympics.

Some of that is down to the fact that Frazer Clarke has not really impressed in the professional ranks, while Fabio Wardley has stepped up every time he has been asked to.

However, Clarke will feel that the additional time he has prepared will at least give him a bit more confidence when taking on a heavy handed opponent. He will need to find a level of form that we have not seen from the former amateur standout, but Frazer Clarke is clearly going to be someone who will believe he can 'out-box' Fabio Wardley.

Ultimately this is Heavyweight professional boxing and it is very hard to avoid a fight at times and Frazer Clarke is going to have to weather a storm from Fabio Wardley. The defending British Heavyweight Champion is going to be entering the ring with a confidence that will be hard to shake and he has shown a decent set of whiskers in the professional ranks, while also carrying his power even as he has stepped up his level of competition.

Fabio Wardley has also shown he can keep a decent pace going in fights and he warms up into contests and the feeling is that he will be able to do the same here.

David Adeleye lasted into the Seventh Round, but he was out of that contest at least one Round earlier as Fabio Wardley ended one rivalry. It is very likely he can end this one in the middle Rounds too and the unbeaten 29 year old can push onto the edge of world level after this one.


The undercard looks pretty decent in London on Easter Sunday and there are a couple of selections to add to the Boxing Picks for the evening.

First up is the return of Alen Babic and he looks a very big price to win his fight with Drago Steve Robinson in the second half of the contest.

After being blown away in a Round in his last bout, Babic may just need a bit of time to get into the groove against a solid Heavyweight.

Steve Robinson has definitely slowed down in bouts and 'The Savage' may just throw enough shots to get him out of there in the latter Rounds as the bigger man stops moving.

There is a lot of hype around Viddal Riley but this is a significant test for him against Mikael Lawal and it really does feel the latter is being underrated.

The same may be said about Chris Kongo in his rivalry clash with Florian Marku and both underdogs could come away with the upset.

MY PICKS: Fabio Wardley to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Alen Babic to Win Between 6-10 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mikael Lawal to Win @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Chris Kongo to Win @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Friday, 29 March 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Tim Tszyu vs Sebastian Fundora (Saturday 31st March)

There have been some solid fight nights over the last couple of weeks, but those have been exciting for fans rather than having angles to approach from the Boxing Picks perspective.

Seeing William Zepeda and Dalton Smith continue progressing is exciting and there should be some big fights ahead for both of those in the months and years ahead.

Both will certainly be chasing the biggest names in and around their Divisions in their next bouts and there are some good options around, even if Dalton Smith surprisingly continues to call out Adam Azim. That feels like a fight that will be in a much better position to be made in twelve to eighteen months time with Smith beating a former World Title challenger and who absolutely should be thinking about a crack at a World Title next time out.

In that time Adam Azim should be able to continue his own development and potentially earn a World Title of his own, which would make a potential domestic Unification a major money fight.


The last Boxing Picks came from Saudi Arabian card 'Knockout Chaos' and it was a huge night for Anthony Joshua and Boxing in general.

The former World Champion did exactly what people felt Tyson Fury should have done against Francis Ngannou and Joshua is now in line to face the winner of the Fury-Usyk fight in May.

That is the next big fight night in the Middle East, but will followed by a massive June 1st card headlined by Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol.

On the undercard is the five vs five Queensberry vs Matchroom rivalry night and it is a winner on that night that could be the next opponent for Anthony Joshua. While we have not had official confirmation, Filip Hrgovic vs Daniel Dubois looks set to be for a potentially vacant IBF World Title and the winner would be expected to defend against Joshua, while Fury and Oleksandr Usyk perhaps head into a rematch.

The officials in Saudi Arabia have spoken about wanting to host a big fight night in London at Wembley Stadium before Riyadh Season and that being headlined by Joshua vs Hrgovic/Dubois sounds like something that could be in play. It would also be another five vs five card led by the rival promoters Frank Warren and Eddie Hearn and that would be a major night for British fans who have been frustrated that their biggest names have not been fighting on these shores.


Queensberry and Matchroom have still had, and have, some big nights in the United Kingdom, but Boxxer may feel they are picking up any perceived slack from the top promotional companies.

Hopefully by next week we will have news about the long talked about fight between Light Heavyweights Anthony Yarde and Joshua Buatsi, while they are going to have Chris Billam Smith vs Richard Riakporhe for a World Title in the summer. Some still hope those two major fights could be placed on the same card, which would be immense, and Boxxer have a solid looking card coming up on Sunday.

Picks from that one will be on another thread, but the focus on this one is on the first PBC card to be broadcasted in their new deal with Amazon Prime.


Over the next couple of months heading into the Euro 2024 we have some major Boxing nights and this will really put a strong first six months on the board for the fans of the sport.

With the money being invested by Saudi Arabia, many more major nights are expected over the second half of the year too and that can only be good news for the fans. The best part is that some major Unifications are going to be signed off too and this is only positive for the sport, which has perhaps handcuffed itself far too often in recent years.

Now if the governing bodies can take the World Titles from those holding them hostage, it should give the next generation of stars a real opportunity to push through.

This is certainly the case this weekend when Tim Tszyu and Sebastian Fundora fight for two of the four belts in the Light Middleweight Division after Jermell Charlo's remaining World Titles were taken from him.

We need this and the winner is expected to face Terence Crawford next so there is another potential monster fight coming up in the summer.

Again, this can only be good news for the sport and the fans and the only hope is that PBC can bring a bit more activity to the fighters they have under their stable.

This opening card in association with Amazon Prime looks a decent one, although it is a shame that none of the main broadcasters signed it up in the United Kingdom and fans here will have to go through a Pay-Per-View channel rather than having it attached to any subscription.

It is hard to imagine too many buying the card on Easter Weekend with the main event taking place in the early hours of the morning in the UK, and that is the real shame.

At least these fights are being made and on Easter Sunday we do have a non PPV card taking place in London that looks pretty good too.



Tim Tszyu vs Sebastian Fundora

Twelve months ago this might have been a much more intriguing fight than many believe it is now, although personally it is not an opinion that I share.

Tim Tszyu has really shown his character in continuing to take on the challengers he has, even after Jermell Charlo strung him along and eventually pulled out of defending his Light Middleweight World Titles against the Australian. Some may have waited, but Tszyu continued to develop and Charlo has shown little appetite for taking on a fighter that may have progressed beyond him now.

It is still a potential Super-Fight, even after Charlo was well beaten by Canelo Alvarez in a surprise bid to win the Super Middleweight World Titles, but Tim Tszyu is not thinking about that and instead focusing on his own career.

Over the last twelve months, Tim Tszyu has beaten Tony Harrison, Carlos Ocampo and Brian Mendoza and he has picked up the WBO World Title, albeit not exactly in the manner he would have hoped. Now he has an opportunity to add the WBC World Title to his collection and with the carrot at the end of the stick being a potential defence against Terence Crawford next, which is potentially a tougher fight than facing Jermell Charlo even if Bud is coming up in weight.

The win over Brian Mendoza last time out stands out as it might have been Sebastian Fundora in the opposite corner if things had been different.

The Towering Inferno won the interim WBC World Title when beating Erickson Lubin in a really good fight and he then defended it against the aforementioned Carlos Ocampo. However, Sebastian Fundora's unbeaten run and interim World Title were ripped away from him by Brian Mendoza in a brutal Seventh Round Knock Out.

Eleven months have passed since Sebastian Fundora's defeat, but he has been given this opportunity after Keith Thurman was forced to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Tim Tszyu. He had been preparing for a fight on the undercard so there won't be many excuses for Sebastian Fundora to not be in shape, and it does feel the much bigger adjustments have to be made by Tszyu on relatively short notice.

Straight out of the gate is the huge size disadvantage with Sebastian Fundora having dimensions that you would expect from a big Light Heavyweight. It is still quite remarkable that he is making 154 pounds at almost 6'6 in height, although the criticism has long been that Fundora does not make use of his length as he should.

That will help Tim Tszyu who has shown his strength in close quarters and there have definitely been some vulnerabilities about Sebastian Fundora that the Australian can exploit.

The manner of the Knock Out defeat eleven months ago is hard to ignore- you do have to wonder what that has taken from Sebastian Fundora and the inactivity since is not ideal when facing someone like Tim Tszyu.

My expectation is that this is going to be a rough, stand in the trenches kind of fight, but the Knock Out loss suffered by Sebastian Fundora may have snapped some of the aura around him. Erickson Lubin had him seriously hurt and there is little doubt that Tim Tszyu has harder punches than both Lubin and Brian Mendoza and he has shown enough resiliency to whatever has come back his way.

Sebastian Fundora may have his moments, but Tim Tszyu looks to be improving all of the time and he is expected to break through the taller man with some big shots both to the head and body.

Unless something drastically has changed, Sebastian Fundora is likely going to stand right in front of Tim Tszyu and that is likely to be a poor game plan against a fighter that will be looking to make a statement to Jermell Charlo, Terence Crawford or whoever may be next on his hit list.

Both Lubin and Mendoza put Sebastian Fundora down in the Seventh Round, the latter for good, and Tim Tszyu may be able to do so in and around the same kind of time. He did have to break down Tony Harrison late on and got to Carlos Ocampo very early, but this time there is some feeling of this developing into a fight in a phone booth type of contest and the Australian can come out on top in the mid-Rounds.


A solid undercard has been put together and fighters looking to get into the World Title mix in the Light Middleweight Division will face off when Brian Mendoza returns to face Serhii Bohachuk, who was Fundora's original opponent on the card.

The odds favour Bohachuk, but this should be a decent scrap to watch and Brian Mendoza has had a taste of fighting for World Titles and will want to come again.

You have to believe Serhii Bohachuk will come out on top, but the big test for him is whether he can keep up his run of twenty-three wins and twenty-three Stoppages. The Ukrainian was upset by Brandon Adams so this is a fight Mendoza will feel he can win and one to enjoy.

Erislandy Lara should have too much for Michael Zerafa in a Middleweight bout for the WBA World Title held by the former. However, inactivity from both veterans is hardly ideal preparation, and that should mean Lara is able to defend his World Title on the cards.

Julio Cesar Martinez has not really kicked on his career as would have once been hoped and he has not really looked the same fighter since losing handily to Chocolatito in March 2022.

This is his third fight since then and he is facing an unbeaten opponent in Angelino Cordova, which is a potential banana skin for the Champion. He should still win, and it may just be worth a small interest on the Champion getting this one finished in the Championship Rounds.


The chief supporting bout on this card is between Rolly Romero and Isaac Cruz, two fighters who have suffered recent losses to Gervonta Davis and who have been chasing that rematch with Tank since.

Both fighters are perhaps living off their performances against Tank Davis- Isaac Cruz was the more impressive of the two, but that is perhaps the reason he is such a strong favourite in this one.

He did not look at his best in a Split Decision win last time out and Isaac Cruz is moving up in weight to take on the WBA Light-Welterweight Champion, while he has been relatively inactive.

However, his last fight did take place since we last saw Rolly Romero in the ring in his controversial win over veteran Ismael Barroso.

Injuries have forced Romero to spend some time out of the ring and the winner of this one is expected to take on Barroso, who has won the interim title in Romero's extended absence.

The feeling has long been that Rolly Romero may be one of the weakest World Champions there has been for some time and it is hard to imagine him keeping Isaac Cruz from building up some steam.

Barring a massive improvement from the performance against Ismael Barroso, this does feel like decent match making from Isaac Cruz and his team. Moving up in weight means dealing with heavier hands than he is used to, but Cruz should be able to land plenty of his own against an opponent who is not nearly as good as he thinks he is.

Ismael Barroso ran out of steam and this allowed Tony Weeks to make his bogus call to stop the fight, even when the veteran was not hurt. It is incredibly unlikely that Isaac Cruz is going to slip away in this one and he may just find the big shots after the halfway mark that may end up seeing him become a new World Champion without the need to hear the scorecards.


The PBC card is the big one on the night, but we do have another World Title being contested in California when Gilberto Ramirez faces Arsen Goulamirian for the WBA Cruiserweight World Title.

The Mexican bounced back from a comfortable defeat to Dmitry Bivol at Light Heavyweight to beat Joe Smith Jr at Cruiserweight. However, this is the first genuine Cruiserweight Gilberto Ramirez will have faced and a Champion that is unbeaten.

In saying that, Arsen Goulamirian has been inactive through injury and delayed fights and you can understand why Ramirez has been set as the favourite. The money has been coming in on the Champion though and it may be a fight where the winner ends up Unifying against the upcoming Chris Billam-Smith vs Richard Riakporhe II bout in the United Kingdom.

A more active Goulamirian would likely have too much for Gilberto Ramirez, but he still looks a considerable price for the 'upset' even as the away fighter.


On Friday evening there is another Top Rank card taking place and headlined by Oscar Valdez who returns after losing by a comfortable margin against Emanuel Navarrete last August.

That is the second loss in three fights, albeit against Navarrete and Shakur Stevenson, but Oscar Valdez has the chance to pick up an interim World Title in the Super Featherweight Division.

He faces Liam Wilson, who impressed in a losing effort against the aforementioned Navarrete in February 2023 when trying to win the full World Title in this Division. The winner of this one is likely going to be upgraded to full World Champion once it becomes clear what Emanuel Navarrete wants to do going forward, and Wilson has been active enough to win two fights in a row since losing to the Mexican.

You would have to give the edge to Valdez, although this is a fighter who has not looked the same since popping in a failed drugs test.

The power has not been the same, but Wilson's two defeats have both been inside the distance and Oscar Valdez may just be able to wear him down in what could be a really good main event.


There are some decent looking fights on the undercard, but a future headliner is the one looking to get that much closer to a World Title fight.

Raymond Muratalla wants to get to that level as soon as possible in the tough Lightweight Division and there are some potentially big names lined up to fight him.

He has to keep things ticking along and Muratalla can break down and Stop Xolisani Ndongeni.

Arnold Barboza Jr Stopped the South African in January in the Eighth Round, but that was also up at Light-Welterweight.

You do have to wonder if getting down to the 135 pound limit for the first time since 2019 is going to have taken something from the tank, but Raymond Muratalla is much more patient in his work and won't rush anything.

If it comes he will go through the gears, but Raymond Muratalla may have to wait until just after halfway for his shots to really make a telling contribution and he can avoid having to hear the scorecards for just the fourth time in his professional career.

MY PICKS: Tim Tszyu to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Erislandy Lara to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julio Cesar Martinez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Isaac Cruz to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.20 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsen Goulamirian to Win @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Raymond Muratalla to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 13-16, + 11.52 Units (45 Units Staked, + 25.60% Yield)

Wednesday, 13 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 13th March)

One more game from Jasmine Paolini and it would been another positive day at Indian Wells, but instead it is a day when the swing has been the other way.

At least Caroline Wozniacki avoided the collapse in the first set that might have swung the match entirely in the other direction as she allowed a 5-1 lead disappear and headed for a medical timeout.

Fortunately she rallied and it was Angelique Kerber who was struggling by the end of the match after her strongest week back on the Tour.


We head towards the business end of the tournament and this looks to be the last really busy day at Indian Wells.

There are some very good looking matches heading out to the court and the Tennis Picks from the day can be read below.


Tommy Paul - 4.5 games v Luca Nardi: Not every Lucky Loser will be able to make the kind of impact Luca Nardi has had at the Indian Wells Masters and his upset against Novak Djokovic means the Italian will crack the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time.

He was a huge underdog in that Third Round match, which is no surprise, and there has been very little evidence from the hard court tennis played that Luca Nardi was going to be capable of competing with Novak Djokovic, never mind actually beating him.

Before the main draw in Indian Wells, the highest Ranked players Luca Nardi had faced this year was World Number 112 David Goffin and World Number 121 Sumit Nagal and the Italian managed to win just one set across those two matches.

Now he has beaten Novak Djokovic and Zhizhen Zhang, both in three sets, and Luca Nardi will be hoping to avoid an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance in the Fourth Round.

He is not helped by the fact he is facing Tommy Paul who has been enjoying a very strong 2024 season.

The American has won a title in Dallas and reached the Final in Delray Beach and Tommy Paul has looked very good in winning his opening two matches at Indian Wells. Those victories have been against players significantly Ranked higher than the one he will be facing in the Fourth Round and Tommy Paul has been serving and returning effectively in this tournament.

Tommy Paul's hard court numbers in 2024 have been very impressive and it will be tough for Luca Nardi to match the efforts of beating Novak Djokovic.

Serving well will help, but Paul is likely going to keep the Lucky Loser under pressure and that can give the World Number 17 an opportunity to wear him down.


Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games v Holger Rune: A bye and a walkover helped Holger Rune through to the Third Round where he was a solid winner over Lorenzo Musetti.

The World Number 7 will be well aware that the challenge increases greatly in this Fourth Round against Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells Masters Champion and a player looking to close back in on a place in the top ten of the World Rankings.

He won the title in Delray Beach and reached the Australian Open Quarter Final, but there has long been a feeling that Taylor Fritz should be destined for even more. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for the top American and this season Fritz has been backing that up with stronger returning.

The two wins in Indian Wells had to be expected and, much like Holger Rune, this is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent.

Holger Rune may not look like a player with a huge serve, but he is very good at protecting this shot and is a better server than some may think. The problem this season has been the lack of consistent production when it comes to the return of serve and tha may end up being the difference between the two players on the day.

Last year Taylor Fritz was able to get the better of the returning numbers when beating Holger Rune in Miami and the conditions here may just suit the Fritz game a little more than in Florida.

Their meeting in Miami was closer than the final score may indicate, but Taylor Fritz can frank that twelve months later and he can get the better of the return in moving into another Indian Wells Quarter Final.


Casper Ruud - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: All credit has to be given to the veteran Gael Monfils who continues to flash some of his very best tennis.

His win over Cameron Norrie has to be respected, but the Frenchman was out on the court for over three hours and this is another step upwards.

Casper Ruud is hard to trust to cover this kind of spread against a top player- he is a quality player, but the return game can be a little inconsistent on the hard courts and that will be an issue if Gael Monfils is really serving as well as he can.

However, you have to figure some fatigue is going to be at play and Casper Ruud can keep the pressure on with his own serve working effectively in the conditions. He should have an opportunity to hit through Monfils, as athletic and mobile as the latter is, and that should give Casper Ruud the advantage as he moves into another Quarter Final.


Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Emma Navarro: We have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka produce her consistent best throughout one match, but the Australian Open Champion continues to plunder her way through the Indian Wells draw.

She will be tested by an ever improving Emma Navarro, although the concern for the American is that she has fallen away in some matches when things have turned against her.

Emma Navarro has a decent serve and she has solid groundstrokes, but the question is how she will deal with the obvious power edge coming from the other side of the court. Frustrating Aryna Sabalenka by hitting her marks on the serve will be key for Navarro, but you have to give the World Number 2 an edge when she is able to get into rallies on the return.

Aryna Sabalenka will attack the Navarro second serve, while her own serve is one that can offer up a lot of short balls.

As long as Sabalenka keeps the error count down, she should be able to keep some sustained pressure on Emma Navarro and that can see her wear down the home player.


Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: Heading into the Australian Open Semi Final, Coco Gauff was motoring at a very, very high level.

However, the defeat to Aryna Sabalenka has sparked a relative downturn in level and over the last month it has been much harder work for the US Open Champion.

She has found a way to win matches, but Gauff has not been able to cover some very big spreads and that makes it a little more difficult to trust her at this mark.

In saying that, Coco Gauff has found a way to put the pressure on the Elise Mertens serve and she has won all three previous matches against this opponent. The last two wins would have seen her cover this mark, even though the win at the US Open was earned in three sets, and the American can get the better of this opponent again.

Elise Mertens will be playing with confidence after beating Naomi Osaka, but that was a match that could have easily got away from her at 5-4, 30/30 in the first set. Losing that would have made it a very long road back and Coco Gauff is playing at a superior level to the returning Osaka.

Serving well will be key and there are likely to be a few breaks of serve, but Coco Gauff has managed six breaks in her last two matches against Elise Mertens. Hitting that mark again should give Gauff an opportunity to have one of her less stressful wins since the Australian Open.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 20-18, - 0.92 Units (76 Units Staked, - 1.21% Yield)

Tuesday, 12 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 12th March)

There was a lot of tennis to get through on Monday as the Third Round was completed at Indian Wells, but there has not been a bigger upset than Novak Djokovic being dumped out by a Lucky Loser.

While admitting his opponent did play well, Novak Djokovic was plenty critical about his own level of performance and this is something he will want to address in Miami and when the clay court season gets underway in April.

Something similar came out of his camp after the crushing loss to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open and there is little doubt that the rest of the field are getting closer to the World Number 1.

Novak Djokovic will go into the next three Grand Slams as the favourite, but the feeling is that the days of the Serb being an odds on favourite or a very short favourite to win Slams looks to be over.

He can make a mockery of that prediction by dominating the clay court season ahead of the French Open, while Novak Djokovic is still amongst the top two players in the world on a grass court, but it is only good news for Men's Tennis that players are not heading onto the court already defeated.


There looks to be positive news on the Rafael Nadal front with reports suggesting the issue picked up at Indian Wells is not one that should prevent him from lining up in the Monte Carlo draw.

You just hope Nadal can get through the tough clay court season and be well prepared, but most importantly healhty, when the French Open comes around as it seemingly looks more and more likely that this could be the final season he plays on the Tour.

Things can change if Rafael Nadal has a really strong nine months, but the body is not on the same page as the heart and mind and I can only hope he gets to go out on his own terms.


A positive run on Monday has turned this tournament back around for the Tennis Picks, but it still feels like a vulnerable position as we move into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.

Tuesday does look a much tougher day to make predictions with some very good looking matches heading to the courts, but there are some selections made, which can be read below.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: The improvements being made by Jiri Lehecka means he has to be massively respected ahead of this Fourth Round match at Indian Wells.

He has won a title on the hard courts and played well in big events in Dubai and now at Indian Wells and there is a feeling that his own belief is growing against some of the elite players on the Tour.

Beating Andrey Rublev will have Lehecka moving into this Fourth Round clash with a lot more confidence and his serving threat has to be respected.

However, he is facing an opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas who looks to have bounced back from whatever has been ailing him.

That is reflected by his fall out of the top ten in the World Rankings, but Tsitsipas will force his way back into those positions if he can keep things rolling in Indian Wells. He has looked very good through the first two wins and Tsitsipas will have the slight mental edge over this opponent having beaten Jiri Lehecka in both previous matches on the Tour.

Both players have been solid servers in those matches, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has gotten a little more out of his return game.

The last of those matches was at the Australian Open in 2023 and there is little doubt that Jiri Lehecka has grown as a player since that match. The return against top 20 Ranked opponents have still not been quite up to top level, but Jiri Lehecka has won three of his five matches against those opponents on the hard courts this year, including beating Karen Khachanov in Dubai and Rublev in the Third Round here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has a perfect 10-0 record when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the Rankings and Jiri Lehecka is still trying to crack that mark in his career. This should be close and competitive, but the feeling is that the Greek player will have more of the Break Point opportunities and that can see him progress into the Quarter Final and cover this mark set.


Jasmine Paolini - 1.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: Confidence can be a funny thing in a sport like tennis and it can make all of the difference for a player.

Jasmine Paolini is playing with real confidence and it has seemingly come out of the blue.

Not many would have predicted that the Italian player would love opening matches in Linz and Doha and then win seven matches in a row to take home the biggest title of her career in Dubai and then progress into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.

The numbers suggest it is not a sustainable run, but Jasmine Paolini will only worry about what she can produce on the courts as she prepares to face Anastasia Potapova for the first time.

The World Number 33 has been a comfortable winner in her opening two matches at Indian Wells and Anastasia Potapova has won nine of the fourteen matches played in 2024 on the hard courts. However, the challenge has been to beat a player Ranked higher than her and not those she is expected to beat and Potapova has won just one of four matches against those above her in the World Rankings.

Her serve has been ok in those matches, but Potapova has been struggling on the return.

However, she should have a bit more joy against this Jasmine Paolini serve, although the latter is likely to put Potapova under pressure with her own return.

The layers are not great believers in Paolini right now, despite her moving into a career high World Ranking mark. As stated, it looks like she is performing and producing results at an unsustainable level, but Jasmine Paolini does have enough quality in her return of serve to win this Fourth Round match.


Caroline Wozniacki v Angelique Kerber: The last time these two veterans met on the Tour was back in June 2018 when Caroline Wozniacki came from a set down to beat Angelique Kerber in the Semi Final at Eastbourne.

Both players are former Grand Slam Champions and both were amongst the elite on the Tour, but Wozniacki and Kerber have spent considerable time away in recent years as they have both become mothers.

Caroline Wozniacki retired and only returned at the back end of last year, while Angelique Kerber made it clear she would return to the Tour having spent the entirety of 2023 enjoying her life.

There have been similarities in the return to the Tour with both Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber struggling to find their best form on a consistent basis.

It has been different in Indian Wells and both players will be keen to progress to the Quarter Final and pick up some massive Ranking points at the same time.

The German leads the head to head 8-7, but it is Wozniacki who has a 6-5 lead in their hard court matches.

None of that really matters here, but it does mean there will be little to surprise the other in this big match.

In their limited time spent on court prior to Indian Wells, Caroline Wozniacki had perhaps shown a bit more competitiveness than Angelique Kerber. The former had at least pushed opponents and perhaps been a little unfortunate to lose matches, while Kerber had not really found anything near her best tennis when losing six of her first seven matches in 2024.

The two have performed well at this tournament, but the slight edge has to be with Caroline Wozniacki who is perhaps setting up a few cheaper points thanks to the first serve.

It cannot be ignored that Angelique Kerber has the more impressive wins having seen off two top 20 Ranked opponents and only having dropped a single set in those two wins. The return has been really effective from Kerber and made up for the lack of consistency on the serve and this feels like a match that will have a lot of breaks of serve throughout.

However, the slight edge is with Caroline Wozniacki on form at this tournament and in 2024 in general and she can get the better of her long-term rival in a big Fourth Round match.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jasmine Paolini - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 19-16, + 1.26 Units (70 Units Staked, + 1.80% Yield)

Monday, 11 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 11th March)

There are a lot of moving parts on the week and that has restricted my time in getting this post out.

With the time change in the United States, we are now seven hours ahead of the tournament in Indian Wells so prepare for an earlier start for those this side of the pond and for another busy day with the Third Round being completed.

The last two days have produced a really disappointing return with those fine margins turning on the selections, but there is still time to get this tournament turned back around.


MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tommy Paul @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 14-13, - 1.12 Units (54 Units Staked, - 2.07% Yield)

Sunday, 10 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Sunday 10th March)

The big names have largely come out firing at the Indian Wells Masters, although we have seen a number of withdrawals before matches have taken place too.

The WTA tournament has lost Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina from the draw, while Milos Raonic withdrew from the ATP event just a day after winning his match and against a Lucky Loser after Rafael Nadal decided to pull of the tournament as he continues his recovery from injury.

For the main part, it is a tournament that moves into a strong looking lineup in the Third Round.

To win a Masters 1000 event, players will know they to deal with the challenges that come and it usually means having to win big matches. The draw has put together a strong schedule on Sunday when the Third Round gers underway with eight matches in both the ATP and WTA Tournaments set to be played.


A disappointing Saturday has just pulled back the numbers from the Indian Wells tournament.

The opening three days of Picks had been productive enough, but that was not the case on a 1-3 day on Saturday and so the pressure is on to bounce back and try and make sure this Indian Wells event with a positive number.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: At his best, Frances Tiafoe is capable of beating most players on a hard court, but we have not really seen that from the American in 2024.

Asking Stefanos Tsitsipas to cover this kind of line is not always ideal, especially on the faster surfaces with the return game not as effective as some of the top players on the Tour.

He has lost three of his last four matches against Frances Tiafoe and the last two have both been on the hard courts and after Stefanos Tsitsipas had won the first set.

Overall it has been a strong return to the Tour for Tsitsipas in 2024 and he has been returning with a bit more effectiveness than we have come to expect. Maintaining those levels on this surface will be the challenge for the Greek star, but this may be an opportunity for him to reach the Fourth Round in Indian Wells behind a solid win.

Overlooking Frances Tiafoe would be a mistake, but it has been a tough opening two months for the American and that could show up here.


Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games v Jiri Lehecka: Strong wins have been a feature of Andrey Rublev's season and even the outburst in Dubai that led to a harsh disqualification will not have dented the confidence.

Beating an in-form Andy Murray will only have added to the belief and Andrey Rublev can get the better of Jiri Lehecka again.

He beat him here in Indian Wells last year, although Jiri Leheckha has produced stronger hard court performances in 2024 than he managed overall in 2023.

The serve is still a big weapon for Lehecka, but he has found a little more out of the return game and that has proven to be a difference maker in turning some results in his favour. Jiri Lehecka will know that his return will be tested by a strong, aggressive server like Andrey Rublev, but it will give him belief that he can turn that loss to Rublev around.

Andrey Rublev will know there is room for improvement in his own return game- he has perhaps not played the Break Points as well as he can, but the opportunities are expected to be created and that could lead to a solid win for the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anna Kalinskaya - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 13-10, + 2.88 Units (46 Units Staked, + 6.26% Yield)

Saturday, 9 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 9th March)

The Indian Wells Masters continues on Saturday with the Second Round set to be completed and it is likely to be another busy day on the courts.

With improving weather, it looks a good day for tennis and the selections from the matches scheduled to be played can be read below.

The full Indian Wells numbers will be in the Sunday thread when moving into the Third Round at the tournament and that is largely down to the limited time I've had being used to put the research together ahead of this first Saturday at the event.


MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anhelina Kalinina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Friday, 8 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 8th March)

It was another premature ending to the Indian Wells schedule of play on Thursday and that means a few First Round matches have to be shoehorned into Friday when the Second Round gets underway.

The next two days are busier than expected and that means there is not enough time to put down any thoughts for the selections, but instead it will be short threads with those made.

Seeded players are in action on Friday and it has been a positive start to the tournament, albeit only a start.


MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 6-4, + 2.48 Units (20 Units Staked, + 12.40% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou (March 8th)

Knockout Chaos comes to our television screens on Friday evening with another big card put together by Saudi Arabia, who continue to have a major influence on a number of sports.

In recent week/months, the likes of golf, tennis and snooker have all begun to offer partnerships with Saudi Arabia, or have sports directly taken over, while Formula One will be here this weekend.

Boxing events need the cash influx to really put the fights together that the fans want to see and, to that end, it has been a positive financial boost not only for the fighters and promoters, but also for the fans.

Of course it is almost impossible to disregard other issues, but that will not stop people tuning in for another big night of Heavyweight Boxing.

And if the investments being made continue to be made, the likes of Conor Benn vs Manny Pacquiao and Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol may be the next big cards to be headlined in the country.


At least we are getting some of the big fights together, but the same cannot be said of Canelo Alvarez who has yet to announce his next bout despite the rumoured May 4th date fast approaching.

It looked like he was leaving his contract with PBC, who have been rumoured to be struggling financially, was coming to an end, but the latest seems to be that there has been a breakthrough in the talks and Canelo's next fight will be under the PBC banner.

The only real disappointment is that David Benavidez is very unlikely to be standing on the other side of the ring- no one will deny Canelo Alvarez has achieved enough in Boxing to make his own decisions as to who to face next, but holding the Super Middleweight Belts hostage while avoiding the clear top contender is not a good look.

David Benavidez looks like he will bid to close other serious options to Canelo by moving up to Light Heavyweight and pursuing the Undisputed Titles at that weight instead. He has admitted he can go back down to Super Middleweight too and will be looking to operate between the two Divisions, but for now it looks like the big showdown between the Mexican Monster and the icon Canelo Alvarez will have to wai at least six months and possibly even twelve months.


March looks to be another solid month of Boxing action, but it is the Easter Weekend which really looks to be the exciting one to tune in for.

That is when PBC's first card with Amazon is set to go headlined by Tim Tszyu vs Keith Thurman, while I am really looking forward to the Fabian Wardley vs Frazer Clarke bout on the same weekend in London.

Dillian Whyte is also back this week having had his suspension for failing a test overturned and he will be returning as the headline act in Ireland on St Patrick's Day.

But before we get to all of the excitement of the rest of the month, a big card in Saudi Arabia will be looking to deliver the Knockout Chaos that fans love to see.



Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou

I did have to go back and remind myself of how I felt when Tyson Fury was set to face Francis Ngannou back in October.

The feeling was that Tyson Fury would not want to risk his Undisputed Fight with Oleksandr Usyk, which had been signed off for December, but the best laid plans can be scuppered one a single punch in the Heavyweight Division.

Francis Ngannou landed that and put Fury down, but the latter did enough to earn the victory on the cards, even if some felt it was controversial.

That performance has made Ngannou a much more dangerous looking fighter and he now has an opportunity to face Anthony Joshua.

A big performance against Otto Wallin has just reminded fans of the 'old' Anthony Joshua and there is little doubt activity has been a big help. The carrot at the end of the stick is that a win here will have the Saudi Arabian investors pushing to set Anthony Joshua up with the winner of the Fury-Oleksandr Usyk Undisputed Fight in May.

You have to accept that Francis Ngannou looked decent enough in the fight with Tyson Fury, but that was a poor outing from Fury. There is little doubt that he was not nearly as prepared as he would have been if he had seen a performance like that from Francis Ngannou before, while the style may actually have suited the novice coming across from the world of MMA.

This time Anthony Joshua will have known that Ngannou is dangerous and that will mean he is fully focused on the task at hand.

And that should be bad news for the underdog, even if he makes a point that a fight outside the boxing ring may play out very differently, especially if it was taking place in the Octagon.

Unfortunately for Francis Ngannou, this fight is not taking place anywhere but a Boxing ring and the fundamentals of Anthony Joshua should make him a bigger favourite than the layers believe.

He is plenty strong and Anthony Joshua looked to have really gotten on board with what was asked of him by new trainer Ben Davison. The game plan will likely see Joshua working behind his jab and trying to force Francis Ngannou to move and have to exert a lot of energy early on.

The Cameroonian former UFC Heavyweight Champion did gas some in his fight with Tyson Fury and the feeling is that Anthony Joshua will look to keep things long and use those fundamentals of Boxing to keep Ngannou off-balance and ultimately wear him down.

Going the full Ten Rounds may not be a massive surprise, but the feeling is that Anthony Joshua may be able to let go of enough big shots to force a Stoppage in the second half of the fight. Once the gas tank empties, Francis Ngannou might overcommit to trying to land the one big, fight changing punch, but that could play into Anthony Joshua's hands as he looks to make sure everyone can see that he has gotten the better of how Tyson Fury did for a second bout in a row.

Styles make fights and the feeling is that this one might suit Anthony Joshua more than Tyson Fury and the former Unified Champion can put a statement performance on the board.


The Day of Reckoning card in December seemed to be loaded from top to bottom and it was never going to be easy to replicate that.

However, the card for this event is still decent enough for those tuning in for an early evening of Boxing.

Sad news was revealed by Kevin Lerena on Thursday when announcing the passing of his mother, but he has declared that he will still enter the ring against Justis Huni.

Plenty of fighters have found motivation out of such sad circumstances and Huni is not nearly as good as his strong favouritism for the bout suggests. The Australian might still do enough, but Keven Lerana is a big price and one that may intrigue some out there.

We have seen him put down Daniel Dubois, whose reputation is pretty decent after giving Oleksandr Usyk some problems and then outworking Jarrell Miller, so Kevin Lerena might be a very big price to earn a victory.


One of the more surprising fights on the undercard features Mark Chamberlain taking on Gavin Gwynne and there is a school of thought that may believe the latter is struggling to get down to the weight.

He is facing a big puncher and Gavin Gwynne was hurt in his last win against a veteran Italian with only a surprising injury turning the tide in that bout.

This may be a good time for Mark Chamberlain to take the step up and he can become the second man to stop Gavin Gwynne as he continues his development towards a World Title.


A fight that looked to be taken off the card after some uncertainty has been restored to the card and Israil Madrimov and Magomed Kurbanov are going to be facing off for a vacant World Title.

That has only increased the status of what looked like being a very good fight before the WBA Light Middleweight Title was attached and it is no surprise that Madrimov is the favourite.

Both may have unbeaten records, but Liam Smith will feel he was robbed when losing on the cards to Kurbanov in Russia in 2021.

Like his opponent, Magomed Kurbanov had some trouble in beating Michel Soro in his last fight, while he is also travelling for the first time.

I do think Israil Madrimov will win the fight, but the doubt over the issue that almost saw him withdrawn from the card makes it that much more difficult to make a selection with any kind of confidence.


However, there is a bit more belief in Nick Ball and it really feels like the British fighter is getting his shot at the WBC World Featherweight Title.

Wrecking Ball has really impressed as he has continued his unbeaten progress as a professional and he gets the opportunity to become a World Champion in just his tenth fight. There is every chance Nick Ball will be back in Saudi Arabia for the five vs five card putting rivals Matchroom and Queensberry into direct competition with one another, but much will depnd on Ball winning this fight.

Rey Vargas is the much taller fighter and he has moved up the weights to become a World Champion in different Divisions, but last time out he took a step too far when losing his unbeaten record to O'Shaquie Foster.

His last defence of this World Title saw Rey Vargas put down and having to win by Split Decision and it felt like his move to Super Featherweight had been down to struggles in making weight.

The Champion has the length and the qualities to try and keep Nick Ball at bay, but the feeling is that the fresher fighter will be willing to do what it takes to get close. Once there, Ball can certainly hurt Rey Vargas to the body, especially if weight is a factor and this could be a huge night for the Liverpudlian.

Nick Ball is unlikely to allow Rey Vargas to coast at any time and if there are any doubts about this weight Division or whether the hunger is still there to compete, the Challenger can certainly exploit that and win the World Title without needing the judges on the night.


Some have suggested the real main event on this card is the big Heavyweight fight between Joseph Parker and Zhilei Zhang, who is putting his Interim WBO World Title on the line.

Both of these fighters had very strong 2023 calendar years- Parker upset Deontay Wilder, while Zhang upset Joe Joyce twice and in big Knock Out wins.

The second of those was very impressive, but this is going to be a different challenge for Big Bang against an opponent who should be much more elusive than Joyce has tended to be.

Beating Wilder is a huge performance, but the whole idea of Joseph Parker being on some massive resurgence since losing to Joe Joyce is perhaps overplayed. Credit has to be given to him for beating the former WBC Champion in December, but you have to wonder how much of that was down to an inactive Deontay Wilder and one who seemed to struggle to want to let his hands go.

Prior to that win, Joseph Parker had beaten Jack Massey in an underwhelming performance before Stopping Faiga Opelu in a Round and Simon Kean in the Third Round.

Those are wins that are hardly the most impressive.

On the other hand Zhilei Zhang's reputation has been greatly enhanced by those wins over Joe Joyce, but some will feel he should have been given the nod when he lost a tight fight to Filip Hrgovic. Conditioning is a big test for Zhang at 40 years old, but he hits hard and fast and that makes him dangerous.

The expectation is that Joseph Parker will not be nearly as hittable as Joe Joyce and he will feel he can outwork Zhilei Zhang once getting through some of the awkward early Rounds.

However, he cannot expect Zhang to be as patient or inactive as Deontay Wilder and that is what makes this an intriguing contest.

Both know that they are perhaps a win or two away from another World Title shot and so they cannot afford to overlook one another. Activity has helped Joseph Parker, but he still has something to prove, while Zhilei Zhang looked really good on the scales.

Styles make fights and rarely does Boxing work where Fighter A beats Fighter B and Fighter B beats Fighter C so Fighter A should beat Fighter C. The style of Joseph Parker should definitely give Zhilei Zhang more to think about than when he faced Joe Joyce, but there is also more likelihood that Zhang will give Parker more to think about than a surprisingly passive Deontay Wilder did.

This makes this a hugely intriguing fight to watch as the chief support.

It really does feel like either Zhang gets this one done through the first half of the contest or Joseph Parker is going to be able to really take control as the gas tank runs down for the Interim Champion.

The lean has to be with Zhilei Zhang to earn another Stoppage win and that is largely down to the fact that there have been signs that Joseph Parker is not as granite as he once was. Recent wins have covered up some of the shortcomings, but Zhang is not likely to be put his hands in his pockets as Deontay Wilder did in December and he will test how much Parker has left.

Ultimately it may be enough to secure the win inside the distance with the speed of the hands and the power in both that could just break down Joseph Parker in what should be another quality Heavyweight contest.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mark Chamberlain to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Nick Ball to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Zhilei Zhang to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 11-14, + 10.05 Units (40 Units Staked, + 25.13% Yield)

Thursday, 7 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th March)

Tennis Paradise.

The marketing promotes this side of Indian Wells and the fans and players do love playing in this part of California, but the opening day of the main draw of this Masters 1000 event was cold, windy and ultimately too rainy to complete.

It does mean a loaded Thursday at the tournament as the remainder of the First Round is all scheduled to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events taking place and all in preparation for the Seeded players to join the party on Friday.

The weather forecast for the rest of the tournament is looking much more like what we have come to expect from Indian Wells and it will be interesting to hear how players like the new conditions- the tournament had been operating one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but early indications is that the courts are much quicker in 2024 and the desert air will contribute to the balls flying through the court.

It is something we will have to keep in mind compared with previous Indian Wells tournaments.


The conditions were one negative of the opening day of the main draw, but the bigger story is clearly the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal who continues to feel he is unable to operate at the level needed to be back on the Tour.

An exhibition was played against Carlos Alcaraz, but poor movement in practice had suggested Nadal was dealing with a problem and it looks like any return to the Tour will now have to wait until the clay court season, which begins next month.

This is yet another hint towards retirement and it would not be a surprise if the Spaniard calls time on his career after the Olympic Games, also played at his favourite Grand Slam surroundings in Roland Garros. The only hope for fans is that we are going to get to see Rafael Nadal enjoying his tennis and being able to head off on his own terms, but there has to be a concern as to how he will be able to hold up through the tough clay court season in the build to the French Open.


Only half of the Tennis Picks were completed on Thursday as the rain hit the event and postponed a number of matches until Thursday.

A number of other selections from the First Round matches that were originally scheduled for Thursday can be read below as the tournament prepares to welcome some of the top names on the Tour to the action in the Second Round.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Conditions may favour the latter at Indian Wells if the courts are playing very quickly, but Lorenzo Sonego has been struggling for any kind of consistent form in 2024.

He has had his moments, and the serve makes him dangerous, but Sonego has not been returning very well and that may give Miomir Kecmanovic the edge in this First Round match.

The Serb has not exactly been piling up the wins, but the run to the Quarter Final in Acapulco will have him feeling better about his overall tennis.

Lorenzo Sonego may bemoan some of the early draws given to him in 2024, but his ending to 2023 on the hard courts was also pretty ineffective and Kecmanovic can move in front in their head to head on the Tour.


Tomas Machac - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The money has come in on the younger player who has produced some very good hard court performances this season and Tomas Machac has to be happy in hearing about the faster court conditions.

Take nothing away from the achievements Stan Wawrinka has had in his career, but he has only played one hard court match this season and has now dropped as low as World Number 70 having peaked at World Number 3.

The lack of hard court tennis has to be a concern, while the move from the clay courts to the faster Indian Wells court may be more difficult than it has been previously.

Stan Wawrinka still has quality and can produce eye-catching tennis, but doing so over a couple of hours may be difficult against this opponent.

Tomas Machac has had solid hard court wins over the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Andy Murray this season, and he will feel he should have gotten the better of Karen Khachanov in Melbourne and Alexander Bublik in Dubai.

He did get the better of Stan Wawrinka on an indoor hard court at the back end of the 2023 season and Machac can do the same at Indian Wells.


Arthur Fils - 1.5 games v Nuno Borges: He may have disappointed me on the clay courts, but Arthur Fils can be backed to win this First Round match.

Take nothing away from Nuno Borges who has backed up the run at the Australian Open with some big performances, but the numbers are average and it feels like he has just played the big points at an unsustainable level.

He will be out for revenge having won just two games in a big loss to Arthur Fils earlier this season, but things have gone much better for the Portuguese player since then.

There is a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Fils, and he has yet to show the consistency that people would have hoped, but this is a solid hard court player. As long as he serves well, Arthur Fils can get the better of Nuno Borges for a second time in 2024 and pick up some big Ranking points before the clay court season gets underway.


Patrick Kypson - 1.5 games v Ethan Quinn: Any player that wins two Qualifiers to earn a spot in the main draw of any tournament has to be given a lot of respect. It means they are familiar with the conditions and there will be some confidence having won two matches in a row, while Ethan Quinn will also note that his two wins were against players Ranked higher than Patrick Kypson.

There may also be a little bit of motivation from the fact Patrick Kypson earned a Wild Card spot into the main draw, while these two players met in a tight, competitive Challenger tournament Final in Cleveland.

Ultimately Kypson got the better of Ethan Quinn on the day with the slightly stronger serving making a difference and the feeling is that this will be the case when they face off in the First Round.

Patrick Kypson followed that tournament win in Cleveland by reaching the Quarter Final in Delray Beach and operating at a higher level than Ethan Quinn may give the higher Ranked American the edge to move through to bigger contests in the Second Round.


Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 games v Pavel Kotov: Reaching the Final in his home tournament in Santiago will have been a positive on one hand, but Alejandro Tabilo has to be disappointed he was not able to win the title.

That match was played a few days ago and travelling to Indian Wells to move onto a new surface is going to be a big ask.

Most would also expect Alejandro Tabilo to have his best results on the clay courts, but he is up at a new career high World Ranking mark of 39 and he came through two Qualifying Rounds on his way to winning a hard court title in Auckland in January.

Pavel Kotov is struggling for consistency and he may need Tabilo to be a little fatigued to have a chance to beat the lefty.

With this match on a Thursday, Alejandro Tabilo cannot have many excuses about being too tired to compete and the feeling is that he will get the better of this opponent and continue to improve the World Ranking.


Emma Raducanu - 2.5 games v Rebeka Masarova: A couple of solid Qualifier wins will have given Rebeka Masarova confidence and it is not ideal backing a player speaking about being unworried about results.

That is what was coming from the Emma Raducanu camp ahead of this WTA 1000 event with the British player speaking about development rather than getting matches under the belt.

Ultimately those things do go hand in hand and Emma Raducanu should be winning a match like this one against a solid, but unspectacular hard court opponent.

It has been a mixed start to 2024, but only the loss at the Australian Open has to be considered a really poor one for the former US Open Champion. In general Emma Raducanu has gotten the better of those she should be beating and Rebeka Masarova is one of those players.

The wins in the Qualifiers will give Masarova confidence, but the Spaniard had lost five of six matches prior to arriving at Indian Wells and Emma Raducanu can find her way through to the Second Round.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anna Blinkova: The upset over Elena Rybakina a the Australian Open may end up being the absolute highlight of Anna Blinkova's 2024 season, but she will be looking for more.

Wins over Caroline Wozniacki and Dayana Yastremska in San Diego shows that confidence is not a problem, but Anna Blinkova is going to need to be at her best to beat Karolina Pliskova.

If the conditions are as expected, Pliskova's serve could be a major weapon on Thursday and potentially deep into the tournament.

An injury hit twelve months has just pushed Karolina Pliskova out of the limelight generated by Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, but the Czech player has just reminded everyone of the danger she poses. After winning a title in Cluj, Karolina Pliskova reached the Semi Final in Doha and Fourth Round in Dubai, two big hard court events, and the only defeat suffered was in three sets to Gauff.

She will certainly feel she should have won that match and Karolina Pliskova had strong runs in Indian Wells in the past having twice reached the Semi Final and twice reached the Quarter Final.

Serving well will put Anna Blinkova under pressure and Karolina Pliskova can earn solid passage into the next Round.

MY PICKS: Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arthur Fils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Patrick Kypson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0 % Yield)

Wednesday, 6 March 2024

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 5th March)

The WTA Tour have had a couple of 1000 events played, but this is the first of those on the ATP Tour when both come together at Indian Wells.

Both Tours will move together onto Miami at the end of this event with March dominated by the two big Masters tournaments ahead of the start of the clay court season.

The top Seeds will not get underway until the Second Round later in the week, but the opening days are very busy with a host of First Round matches to be completed.


It has been a poor start to the season for the Tennis Picks but much of that is still down to the really poor Australian Open production.

Last week was looking better, but when both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas failed to serve out matches, and ultimately covers, and Andrey Rublev was denied a complete win over Sebastian Korda due to a retirement, it did prevent a second winning week to be recorded.

Things could always be a lot worse, but they should have been a lot better from that week and should have backed up the previous week which had ended with a profitable week.

Let's hope the Indian Wells Masters event proves to be one with a little more fortune attached to the selections that will be made over the next ten days.


Andy Murray - 2.5 games v David Goffin: There was a time that a match between these two players would have been played in the Quarter Final of big Masters events, but both Andy Murray and David Goffin are still plugging away on the Tour.

One has spoken about potentially retiring at the end of the summer, while the other has had to battle through a couple of Qualifiers to even earn a spot in the main draw at the Indian Wells Masters.

This does cloud some of the potential outcome of the match- Andy Murray has been struggling to find wins, even if performances have not been as poor as the results, while David Goffin has begun to spend a lot of time playing matches against players outside of the top 100.

To underline the point, over the last twelve months through injury and a loss of form, David Goffin has played just eight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. The Belgian former World Number 7 has lost seven of those eight matches, although three of those losses in 2024 have been against players Ranked high enough to be Seeded in Grand Slam events.

After winning two Qualifiers, David Goffin has to be feeling pretty happy with the conditions and he will certainly feel he can finally win a set, never mind the match, against Andy Murray.

The head to head is perhaps not surprising- Andy Murray's style looks to be everything David Goffin can do, but only a little bit better as his former Grand Slam winning and World Number 1 form would underline.

There is little doubt that Andy Murray is not the player he once was and everything is much harder for him these days than when at his peak. The serve has never been the biggest weapon, but Murray has not returned as well as he would have expected from himself, although this is a match in which he can get his teeth into those games a little more.

David Goffin has only held 67% of his service games played in four matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024, and that number is only at 71% against those opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This gives Andy Murray a chance and there could be a number of breaks of serve during this contest, although the feeling is that this is a match that the British player can still win.


Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Juncheng Shang: This is more to do with the form that Jordan Thompson has displayed over the last month and that gives him the edge over Juncheng Shang, despite the fact the latter has come through a couple of Qualifiers in Indian Wells to become accustomed to the conditions.

Last year Jordan Thompson did reach the Third Round at Indian Wells and he has been playing with a lot of confidence through the first two months of the season.

Winning a title in Los Cabos, which includes victories over the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud, has to give the Australian plenty of belief, and he was a deserved winner when last going up against Juncheng Shang to level their personal head to head.

You have to credit the lefty for reaching the Hong Kong Semi Final and taking a set from Andrey Rublev, but he will have to serve well to contain Jordan Thompson.

The latter is not easy to trust to maintain the current levels having reached his career high World Ranking at the end of February, but Jordan Thompson is playing well enough to move through to the Second Round behind a solid victory.


Petra Martic - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It is never going to be easy to return from a long absence from the Tour and especially for those who are returning as mothers.

That has already proven to be the case for Angelique Kerber and it may take a bit of time to really find her timing and ability to string together wins.

It looks like a tough First Round match against veteran Petra Martic, who has been in decent if unspectacular form to open 2024. However, she has been competing and putting some wins together and that is more than what can be said for Angelique Kerber who is now Ranked outside the top 600.

Things are perhaps tougher for someone like Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki than they perhaps will be for Naomi Osaka because of the style of tennis- both the former players are largely seen as counter punchers, but finding that timing and the stamina to fight through the long rallies time after time will take a bit of getting used to again.

There have been a couple of competitive matches for Kerber on her return this year, but a lot of matches have got away from her too.

Petra Martic has lost matches to Alja Tomljanovic and Naomi Osaka, two returning players, already in 2024 and that makes it tougher to trust her. However, Angelique Kerber has been having some issues with her serve, which has added to the pressure on the return and ultimately that may show up in this First Round match.


Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 games v Robin Montgomery: Both of these players have com through the Qualifiers, but it is Hailey Baptiste who can progress through to the Second Round.

She has gotten the better of Robin Montgomery in both previous matches, including in a three setter this year, and looks to be playing well against those players she should beat.

Robin Montgomery will be competitive, but has to get more out of the return against the first serve to turn things around, especially as Hailey Baptiste has been able to attack both the first and second serve returns.

Two Qualifiers should be confident within the conditions at Indian Wells, but it is Hailey Baptiste getting closer to cracking the top 100 and she can move a step towards that with a victory in what may end up being a competitive three set match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)