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Friday, 6 October 2017

College Football Week 6 Picks 2017 (October 7th)

It has been a solid couple of weeks for the College Football Picks, but I do want another strong week to get this season on track.

It was a slow start to the Picks, but the back to back successful weeks have brought the losses right back down, but now I want to move into a positive for the season.

The College Football season is really picking up some steam now with some big games to come, but nothing much changes for the Alabama Crimson Tide who look like they are going to steamroll their way back into the Play Offs as they make up for the way they were beaten in the National Championship Game at the end of the 2016 season.

I would be surprised if the Crimson Tide are not the SEC Champions at the end of this season, and I don't think they will have a loss on their schedule. The other three places in the Play Offs look much more open with the likes of the Oklahoma Sooners, Penn State Nittany Lions and Washington Huskies all looking like they will be challenged for the Conference Championships they won last season.

The Clemson Tigers are another team who have looked strong so far this season and have a couple of big road wins already under their belt.

The season is likely to continue be an exciting one as teams try to work a path through the Conference Games in front of them. With the amount of teams who look capable of finishing in the Play Off spots, any loss at this stage could be devastating to those chasing those places and that puts pressure on them to respond, as well as makes for some really exciting moments.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: The unbeaten start to the season came to an end for the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) in Week 5 as they went down to a home loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their opening Big 12 Conference. Getting back to winning ways will be on the mind of the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3) who have lost three in a row and once again look to be the whipping boys of this Conference.

The Jayhawks were blown out by the West Virginia Mountaineers at home two weeks ago and they will be hoping that the work done off the field can at least make them more competitive going forward. Head Coach David Beaty definitely looks to be in taking the Jayhawks in the right direction, but Kansas still look short of the others schools in this Conference, on the football field at least.

This may have been the game that Kansas felt they could win the most in the Conference schedule this season, but the Red Raiders are arguably better than most would have anticipated. Losing Patrick Mahomes to the NFL was clearly a blow for Texas Tech, but they have found a Quarter Back who is happy in the system and I am going to be looking for them to bounce back this week.

Texas Tech are 12-6-1 against the spread when playing off a straight up loss over the last three years under Kliff Kingsbury and they are capable of covering what looks a big spread in this one. The Red Raiders have found their replacement for Mahomes in Nic Shimonek and the 'Air Raid' Offensive philosophy has worked for them and is expected to be huge against a Secondary which has allowed over 300 passing yards per game.

There has been little pressure generated by the Kansas Defensive Line which means Shimonek should have plenty of time to make his plays down field, especially as he has shown he has the movement to escape any pressure. With the Jayhawks trying to stop the Texas Tech Offensive unit from having a huge day through the air, Texas Tech should also find a few more running lanes than they have this season and have their best performance on the ground too.

Basically it is hard to imagine Texas Tech having too many drives stalling due to their inability to move the chains. The Red Raiders have to avoid any turnovers and penalties which may be the only way to stop them scoring on most possessions and the pressure will be on Kansas to try and keep up.

I do think Kansas will have some opportunities to do that because the weakness of Texas Tech remains on the Defensive side of the ball. They are another team who have given up over 300 passing yards per game so Peyton Bender could have another decent game at Quarter Back and at least keep Kansas with Texas Tech.

However there are a couple of problems for the Jayhawks which may prove to be the reason Texas Tech are able to pull away. While the Red Raiders have won the turnover battle so far this season, Kansas have been guilty of giving the ball away too many times and Bender has thrown 7 Interceptions himself. There will be some pressure on Bender when he steps forward to throw the ball and Texas Tech have forced Interceptions which could be crucial in covering this spread with the extra possessions they can earn.

The Texas Tech Defensive Line has also been able to stop the run and I think they are going to be able to stall a few more drives than Kansas in this one.

That should help Texas Tech pull away in this one and I will back them despite the Red Raiders being a poor road favourite to back in recent years. They have bounced back for Kliff Kingsbury from losses with a strong record against the spread and I will look for Texas Tech to win this game by around three Touchdowns.

Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers Pick: Two teams who finished with losing records in 2016 have made much better starts in 2017 and will be dreaming of a Bowl bid. Games like this one are very important when you think the Duke Blue Devils (4-1) and Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) are in a tough Conference and likely would have circled this one as a must win.

The Virginia Cavaliers have already shown they are prepared to bounce back from setbacks by winning back to back games since their loss to the Indiana Hoosiers. That already means they have more wins in 2017 than they did in 2016 and Virginia fans may already be thinking of their first winning season since 2011.

It is up to the Duke Blue Devils to show they can do the same as their 4-0 unbeaten start to the season came to a crashing end when beaten by the Miami Hurricanes in Week 5. They were the underdog going into that game, but that won't have made it any less disappointing for the Blue Devils whose football programme has improved to the point that fans don't just look forward to the College Basketball season to begin.

This is an interesting game to see where both these teams stand, especially Virginia whose best win came last week on the road at Boise State. That is an impressive victory considering they were a big underdog going into Week 5, but I do like the fact that the Duke Blue Devils have already won twice as the underdog this season.

A first road start is always difficult and Duke are being faced by a Virginia Defensive unit that are experienced from last season and shown how much they have learnt on the field. The Cavaliers Defensive Line have been able to control the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can slow down what Duke bring on the ground which will allow the Virginia pass rush to try and take over.

It is the case that Duke's Offensive Line have had their issues in pass protection more than when it comes to run blocking so being in third and long will not be a good place for the Offense. That is especially the case when you think how effectively Virginia have been able to get to the Quarter Back, which has also led to the creation of turnovers.

There will be times when Duke's Offensive Line should be able to create some movement on the ground which can help their overall performance in moving the chains. But it is likely to be an inconsistent Offensive day, although the Blue Devils will be confident their own Defensive unit can set them up.

Duke have played better teams than Virginia have and their Defense has been the key to help them begin 4-1 with the four wins matching 2016's number already. The Duke Defensive Line has been particularly impressive as they have held teams to 3 yards per carry on the season and that will make it a challenge for the home team to move the chains consistently themselves.

Kurt Benkert has been superb for Virginia with the Quarter Back having thrown 10 Touchdown passes to the sole Interception. He has helped Virginia produce over 310 passing yards per game, but now has to be wary of a Duke team who have found a way to get to the Quarter Back which has led to the Secondary being able to make some big plays. I still think Benkert will make some decent plays, but this Duke team is better than many the Quarter Back would have seen so far and I like the Blue Devils as the underdog.

I simply don't know exactly how much Virginia have improved from last season compared with Duke who have played some good teams already. They have usually played well off a loss and being a home favourite is not exactly a position that the Cavaliers would have enjoyed too often.

The underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series between these teams and I do think Duke are capable of springing the upset outright here. Taking the points with the road underdog looks the right play and I will do that with Duke.

LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators Pick: It has been a little over a month since Les Miles was fired as Head Coach of the LSU Tigers (3-2), but his successor Ed Orgeron is already on the hot seat. The start of the 2017 season has been spectacularly poor as the Tigers have been upset as favourites at the Mississippi State Bulldogs and then as a big favourite at home against the Troy Trojans.

With the way the Alabama Crimson Tide have been playing, the Tigers already look like they are under pressure in the SEC and now they have to travel to face the Florida Gators (3-1) after their regular season games were switched last year. The Gators have recovered from their opening weekend loss to the Michigan Wolverines and all three wins in 2017 have come against SEC opponents.

The only negative for Florida in their win over the Vanderbilt Commodores was losing Quarter Back Luke Del Rio for the season with a collarbone injury suffered. It means Feleipe Franks will take over as the starting Quarter Back having already had plenty of playing time in 2017, but it is a blow for the Gators to lose Del Rio.

Franks actually started the first three games for Florida this season so the Freshman should have plenty of belief in his own performances. However it does have to be said that the Tigers Defensive unit may be the toughest one Franks has seen so far and LSU have managed to get plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back up front which will give them a chance to force mistakes from Franks.

Losing the top Wide Receiver for this game is another issue for Florida, but it does mean the game plan should be fairly comfortable. You can imagine the Gators are leaning on Malik Davis and Lamical Perine to run the ball and they should have some success against the Tigers who struggled to slow down the run so far this season.

The Tigers Defensive Line have been worse over their last three games which has seen them give up 4.9 yards per carry and I do think Florida can help out their inexperienced Quarter Back by running the ball down their throats.

LSU may feel they can have success doing the same thing and at least taking the pressure off of Danny Etling at Quarter Back who has been promised the whole game having been splitting reps earlier in the year. Etling did not play well against the Troy Trojans in Week 5 and so the LSU Tigers may be looking for Darrel Williams to run the ball effectively enough to keep the chains moving.

Derrius Guice is expected to miss out again which means Williams will get the majority of the carries against a Florida Defensive Line that have not been up to the standard of last season. Running the ball will at least keep Etling and the Offensive unit in third and manageable situations and from there the Quarter Back should be able to make some effective throws.

I can see Florida at least getting some pressure up front which could help the Secondary pick up an Interception or two which can swing this game in their favour. I do wonder if the Freshman Quarter Back of the Gators can keep himself from making too many mistakes in order for the home team to win this one, but I think Florida overall are in a much better state of mind than LSU.

The huge upset loss to Troy is a bitter blow for the Tigers to absorb and LSU are 0-3 against the spread in their last three as the road underdog. With home advantage and the players perhaps not all behind Ed Orgeron I will look for Florida to win this game as the narrow favourite and move to 4-0 in the SEC as they look to become SEC East Champions again.

I will look for the Gators Defensive unit to step up their play in light of the injury to Luke Del Rio and I will back Florida to win and cover.

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: Any time a new Head Coach comes onto the scene there are always teething problems with a new philosophy needing to be taken on by players used to doing things a different way. PJ Fleck opened up 3-0 with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) but the team were beaten in their first Big Ten Conference Game last week.

Now they go into their second Conference Game against the Purdue Boilermakers (2-2) who have shown they have the most competitive team in recent years although they are also 0-1 in the Big Ten games.

The Boilermakers have to be happy with the appointment of Jeff Brohm as Head Coach as they are very much on course for their most wins in a single season since 2012 and potentially the first Bowl Game since that season. It won't be easy to do that with the Big Ten Conference games scheduled and that is why this one feels a very important game for the Boilermakers.

It will be important for Purdue to establish the run in this one against a Minnesota Defensive unit that have played well so far this season. Running the ball will at least keep the Offense in third and manageable spots and recent games suggest that the Boilermakers will be able to at least to that, even if they are unlikely to rip off huge gains from one carry in this game.

Keeping the Offense in third and manageable will help David Blough at Quarter Back in a number of ways- Blough is not someone who will take a risk with the ball and that means he has converted a lot of 'easy throws' rather than stretching teams downfield and staying in third and short will help against a strong Minnesota Secondary that have allowed fewer than 175 passing yards per game.

It will also mean the Offensive Line's struggles are not highlighted in pass protection having had their problems keeping Blough upright. That has led to turnovers and Purdue have to play a clean game if they are going to be Minnesota as the home favourite in this one.

Things won't always go Purdue's way though as Minnesota should have their success on the other side of the ball. If the Boilermakers make mistakes, a balanced Golden Gophers Offensive unit will be able to move the chains against this Purdue Defense which is improved from 2016, but also one that Minnesota match up well against.

The Golden Gophers should be able to establish the run whether that is even by throwing the ball a few more times than Purdue may expect early in the game. The Purdue Secondary have given up over 250 passing yards per game this season and Minnesota will give Conor Rhoda time to make his plays at Quarter Back behind an Offensive Line which has been strong.

Avoiding mistakes will be as key for Rhoda as it is for Blough and that may come down to how this game is decided. Purdue are actually starting without a couple of key players on the Defensive side of the ball who are out for targeting penalties from their last game and even missing those for a half can be the critical difference in what feels like a close game.

The Golden Gophers are 10-5-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent years and PJ Fleck coached teams are 13-4 against the spread as the road dog. Minnesota do match up well with Purdue and I think their Defense steps up for longest in this one to make getting more than a Field Goal worth of points look very attractive.

Both teams are looking to bounce back from a loss, but I will take the points with the road underdog in a game where I believe the Golden Gophers can win outright.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: Losing their Quarter Back as one of the top picks in the last NFL Draft was always going to be a problem for the North Carolina Tar Heels (1-4), but the fans would have still expected more from the start of the 2017 season. It has not been the easiest schedule though and things won't improve much on Saturday in Week 6.

This week the Tar Heels will be hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) whose record in the mirror of the one that North Carolina hold. Even the loss to the Georgia Bulldogs doesn't look like a bad one at all with that team looking like one of the best in the SEC, but Brian Kelly will know they need to run the table if Notre Dame want to put themselves in contention for a Play Off spot.

Running the table would mean holding wins over the likes of Miami and North Carolina State from the ACC, two teams who are currently unbeaten, as well as wins over the USC Trojans and Stanford Cardinal from the Pac-12. If the Fighting Irish want to get back into the Play Off picture, that is the least that Kelly will be demanding while also trying to keep the pressure off his players by taking things game by game.

That philosophy means Notre Dame may be without Brandon Wimbush who had a foot injury last week that meant being placed in a walking boot as a precaution. There is a real chance that Wimbush won't be playing in North Carolina, although Notre Dame will still feel they can move the chains against the Tar Heels Defense which has struggled.

It mainly comes down to the fact that the Tar Heels have not been able to stop the run and so Notre Dame are likely going to be leaning on Josh Adams more than they have done already. Adams has over 650 yards on the ground already this season as he is well on the way to 1000 for the year and should be able to make hay against a Tar Heels Defensive Line which has given up 5 yards per carry so far this season.

Teams have run the ball comfortably against North Carolina and that is likely to be the case for Notre Dame who won't have to throw the ball with either Wimbush or backup Ian Book at Quarter Back. While the Tar Heels Secondary have struggled, Notre Dame's successes this season have come by running the ball and also creating turnovers.

While it is easy to see how the Fighting Irish will try and keep the chains moving, running the ball won't be easy for the Tar Heels. Jordon Brown will get his carries to keep the Fighting Irish honest and also to keep the pressure off of Chazz Surrett at Quarter Back who has had a few teething problems after taking over from Mitch Trubisky who is now with the Chicago Bears.

Surrett hasn't played badly, but he has faced pressure behind the Offensive Line and is likely to have Notre Dame doing the same to him up front. That has led to some mistakes and Interceptions thrown, an area the Fighting Irish have tried to make use of and that has to be a concern.

However I do think North Carolina can 'get up' for this game and they are a big underdog at home. Notre Dame are a public backed team which means they tend to be overrated away from home and that is shown by their 7-10 record against the spread when favoured on the road. That number becomes 2-4 against the spread when favoured by double digits and I think the North Carolina Tar Heels are good enough to at least keep this close.

None of the Tar Heels' three home losses have come by more than 12 points this season and being at home should see them highly motivated to try and earn the upset. They are getting enough points here and I will back North Carolina with the points.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Tulane Green Wave Pick: After a very strong 2016, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-4) lost key skill players on the Offensive unit which meant there were reduced expectations coming into this season. Reduced, but not as far as the Golden Hurricane have dropped in their opening games and the defeat to Navy in Week 5 means Tulsa are already in a difficult position to get to the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.

They head to the Tulane Green Wave (2-2) as the underdog in Week 6 who are coming in off a bye and who also have dropped their opening Conference game against the Navy Midshipmen. However the Green Wave are coming in with more confidence than Tulsa having looked like they are capable of surpassing the 4 wins from 2016 in Willie Fritz' second year as Head Coach.

Both teams will look to impose themselves behind their Offensive Line and Running Backs and there are some similarities with how both teams have approached things. However it is the Green Wave who will believe they will get the better of the game as they come in rested as well as proven to be a little more competitive than Tulsa have been.

The Green Wave will lean on Dontrell Hilliard and Sherman Baddie to run the ball behind an Offensive Line which has paved the way for 244 yards per game on the ground and those coming at 5.2 yards per carry. They are facing a Tulsa Defensive unit which has been crushed by injuries early in the season and that has seen them really struggle to find the right way to fill the gaps up front as their Defensive Line have given up almost 320 yards per game on the ground and those have come by a huge 6.7 yards per carry.

There is little doubt that Tulane will become the latest team to take advantage of those injuries and they haven't needed Jonathan Banks to do too much at Quarter Back. Banks should be able to make some plays through the air against a Tulsa Secondary that have had their issues with limited protection as the team tries to find a way to stop the run, and Tulane should be able to move the chains consistently.

However there is every chance that Tulsa should be able to do the same as they have been able to pound the ball very effectively behind their own Offensive Line. Not many teams have been as porous on the ground as Tulsa have, but Tulane themselves have given up over 200 yards per game on the ground.

Expect D'Angelo Brewer to make some big plays on the ground to keep the chains moving for the road team here and it does feel like both teams will be able to go up and down the field for much of the afternoon. Chad President may not find as many holes through the air as Banks can for Tulane, but he is a capable runner too and finding big gains on the ground should automatically see some spaces open up through the air.

The edge does go to Tulane simply as they have looked like having the better Secondary of the two teams, but Tulsa might be the better team running the ball and I think this game is going to come down to which team has the ball last. Tulsa have enjoyed playing Tulane with an 11-1 record against the spread in the last twelve in the series, and getting more than a Field Goal worth of points can be very important for the road team.

Injuries are an issue to consider, but the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are 7-2 against the spread as the road underdog with Philip Montgomery as Head Coach. I will take the points with Tulsa in this one and look for them to keep this close and perhaps even earn the upset here.

California Golden Bears @ Washington Huskies Pick: Chris Petersen has not been happy with the way the schedule has worked out for the Washington Huskies (5-0) who were one of the four Play Off teams last season. The late West Coast starts means Petersen feels his team are not getting the exposure they deserve and the Head Coach won't be much happier in Week 6 with another late Eastern Time slot.

However Petersen has to much happier with the start made by the Huskies who are in a very difficult Pac-12 North Division where a number of teams will believe they can make the Championship Game. The Huskies are 2-0 in the Conference, but they have yet to play one of the top teams in the Conference, although the California Golden Bears (3-2) don't really qualify as one of those.

The Golden Bears have dropped both Conference games played in 2017 and this is a team who have finished with a losing record in four of the last five years and also getting to know a new Head Coach. Justin Wilcox had the Golden Bears playing well in their non-Conference games to begin the season, but California were outgained in two of those wins and have now lost back to back games.

This is the best Defensive unit that California have faced so far in 2017 and it may be difficult to move the chains with some consistency for the road team. The Washington Defensive Line haven't given up a lot of yards on the ground and forced teams into third and long spots, and it is unlikely that California will have a lot of success on the ground.

That will mean the pressure is on Ross Bowers at Quarter Back to make plays behind an Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection. Bowers will likely need time from third and long situations and will be feeling the pressure around him with the way the Washington Huskies have generated the rush up front.

It will likely mean Bowers, who has 9 Touchdown passes and 8 Interceptions this season, will be put into a position where he is throwing into a Secondary who have been able to pick off passes and give Washington extra possessions.

Moving the chains should be an 'easier' task for the Washington Huskies who should have the right balance Offensively to keep the Golden Bears off balance. A number of experienced players have returned on that side of the ball for the Huskies and they should be able to establish the run in this one which is going to open things up for Jake Browning at Quarter Back to expose a Secondary who have given up almost 275 passing yards per game.

Browning has been efficient with 12 Touchdown passes thrown and just 3 Interceptions going against him. He should be able to make a few big plays in this one and I like the chances of the Washington Huskies being able to pull away to cover a big number. The Golden Bears were beaten by almost 40 points at home by the Huskies in 2016 so will be motivated for revenge, especially as they won on their last visit here, but there looks to be a clear difference in what these current teams can produce.

California are just 5-14 against the spread as the road underdog since 2012 if you remove the 2014 season when they went 5-0 in that spot. They are also 2-8 against the spread as the road underdog being given double digits in points on the handicap, although you can't ignore the size of this number.

The Huskies are 6-4 against the spread when favoured by 27 or more points in the last ten in that instance so they are capable of covering. I can see the Washington Defensive unit stepping up and making enough plays to cover this one, with a couple more turnovers likely to be the key to pulling away. It won't be easy but Washington can work their way to a dominant second half which helps them win this one with the cover.

Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns Pick: The Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) and the Texas Longhorns (2-2) are not considered to be big players in the Big 12 Conference this season. However both are good enough to play spoiler for some of the big name schools as they try and get back up to the levels their own fanbases expect.

That makes more sense for Texas than for Kansas State with the latter continuing to exceed expectations most seasons under Bill Snyder. For the Longhorns they are in another new season with a new Head Coach and Texas will have to give Tom Herman some time to get his ideas across to his new players.

Recruitment will take a bit of time too although Texas have shown they still have plenty of quality which comes when 17 starters return from the 2016 season. Texas have been much better since their upset home loss to the Maryland Terrapins in Week 1 and they have had an extra day to prepare for this game after playing on a Friday in Week 5.

Texas will need all the time they get as they hope for a return for Shane Beuchele at Quarter Back- Beuchele looks to be making his way back in time for Week 6, but it won't be an easy game for the Quarter Back considering how well the Wildcats are playing Defensively.

The Kansas State Defensive Line have not allowed teams to make too many big plays on the ground and even the fact a number of players left from the 2016 unit hasn't been an issue for Snyder to replace. With the Defensive Line holding teams to 3.4 yards per carry, the Kansas State Secondary have also stepped up as they have held teams to under 200 passing yards per game, while the Offensive Line protection issues Texas have had can be exposed by the Wildcats.

It does have to be noted that Texas do look to match up well with Kansas State on the other side of the ball as they are strong against the run, while the Secondary are not facing an elite Quarter Back. Jesse Ertz is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game through the air, although he has been efficient enough with the ball after throwing 5 Touchdown passes to just 2 Interceptions.

The key for Ertz has been his wheels and being able to move the chains with his legs, but the game will be decided on the battle between the Kansas State Offensive Line and Texas Defensive Line. While the Longhorns have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the season, it is the punishing Kansas State ground game that has been the importance for the Wildcats who have generated 5.7 yards per carry.

It does feel this is going to be a close game regardless and so getting as many points as this with the Kansas State Wildcats is hard to ignore. Bill Snyder's team have a very strong 19-8 record against the spread as the road underdog and the Texas Longhorns are usually a public team that are overrated. The sharps do seem to be behind the home favourite this time around, but I like Kansas State to keep this to a Field Goal kind of deficit in a big Conference game.

Michigan State Spartans @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: No matter what kind of state the Michigan State Spartans (3-1) may be, you know this is the game they will be looking forward to most of all. Travelling to the Michigan Wolverines (4-0) and the Big House for a night primetime game is a huge test for the Spartans, but you know this is something they are looking forward to rather than being in fear of.

The Wolverines snapped a three game losing run to the Michigan State Spartans in 2016 and they are looking for back to back wins over them for the first time in a decade.

However Michigan will have to use their back up Quarter Back in John O'Korn after Wilton Speight was injured and who will be missing a few weeks. O'Korn has plenty of experience but it has to be said that this is still a huge challenge for him to Quarter Back the Wolverines against a Michigan State Defensive unit that have been playing very well.

O'Korn is likely to be facing some pressure up front as the Michigan Offensive Line have struggled in protection, while the Quarter Back will need some time to figure out what to expect from his Wide Receivers. That may see him hold onto the ball a little longer than is ideal especially as the Michigan State Secondary have been in fine form in 2017 too.

Michigan will be hoping to establish Ty Isaac in a bid to at least relieve some of the pressure on O'Korn at Quarter Back, but the Spartans have held teams to 3.1 yards per carry. If the Spartans can get the pressure up front, they should be able to keep the Wolverines in third and long spots where they can stall drives and force a few punts.

It really won't be much easier for Michigan State to move the chains as the new look Michigan Defensive unit have played up to a level that exceeds most expectations. The Defensive Line have been very good and they will feel they can win the battle with the Michigan State Offensive Line which is likely to be a key part of how this game plays out.

The Spartans won't get away from the run, but they won't want to be in third and long spots in this game with the Wolverines showing they are very capable of getting to the Quarter Back. Brian Lewerke has to make sure he limits the mistakes made if the Michigan State Spartans are going to win this game outright, but it will be difficult to move the chains without taking chances against a team who have allowed under 150 passing yards per game.

The game should be one that doesn't feature a lot of points and turnovers are likely to be critical to the outcome. If the Spartans can play a clean game they can improve their 9-0 record against the spread in this series and I do like Michigan State in this one.

Michigan are coming off a bye which means they should be well prepared, but this looks like a lot of points to be getting with the road underdog whose season is based around spoiling things for their big rivals. The Spartans always feel like the 'little brother' in this series who want to prove a point and I think that is what Mark Dantonio gets from his team as he finds the right motivation for them.

Getting a double digit start looks a big one and I will back the Spartans here.

MY PICKS: Texas Tech Red Raiders - 16 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels + 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane + 5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 28.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 5: 5-4, + 0.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.11% Yield
Week 48-1, + 6.27 Units (9 Units Staked, + 69.67% Yield)
Week 32-6-1, - 4.14 Units (9 Units Staked, - 46% Yield)
Week 22-3, - 1.09 Units (5 Units Staked, - 21.80% Yield)
Week 11-3, - 2.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Season 201718-17-1, - 0.41 Units (36 Units Staked, - 1.14% Yield)

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