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Tuesday, 15 November 2016

World Cup Qualifiers Picks 2016 (November 15th)

This is the final international break of the 2016 calendar year and we won't have another until March 2017 which has to be exciting news for most football fans. It simply isn't that interesting watching the World Cup Qualifiers, particularly not the ones in Europe, while the international friendlies are even worse with so little to gain out of those matches.

On Tuesday the World Cup Qualifiers I am focusing on come from South America and I am looking to get some wins under the belt to get this month moving in a positive direction after six poor weeks of making picks.

Bolivia v Paraguay PickThe 1-4 home loss to Peru has dented Paraguay's hopes of making it to the World Cup Finals in Russia and another loss in Bolivia might mean they need at least a couple of upsets to get back into contention. The Group remains quite tight, but Paraguay will be under pressure to beat some of the bigger nations if they are to lose this week and 3 losses in their last 4 World Cup Qualifiers is a concern.

They are also heading to La Paz where Bolivia tend to use the altitude to play their best football, although this is a team that struggles defensively. Scoring goals hasn't been that much of an issue for Bolivia at home, but they have conceded at least twice in 6 games here which makes it tough to avoid defeat.

Bolivia have a mental edge over Paraguay at home having beaten them in two high-scoring games in a row in the World Cup Qualifiers here. With at least two goals scored in 3 of their last 4 home World Cup Qualifiers Bolivia might earn the victory this week, but the goals they have conceded suggests they will need at least that many to to do that.

Instead of picking the winner, it does look a game that could produce at least three goals with the home team better going forward here and still defensively weak. Paraguay have scored at least once in 6 of their last 8 away World Cup Qualifiers and I think the odds against quote for at least three goals looks a nice price.

Ecuador v Venezuela PickThis is a really important game for Ecuador who have just been struggling for wins in the World Cup Qualifiers and have the likes of Chile and Argentina breathing down their necks. With that in mind, none of the teams chasing places at the World Cup Finals can afford to drop home points against the likes of Bolivia and Venezuela who are both notoriously bad travellers.

A couple of poor results doesn't take away the fact that Ecuador have played well at home too and they have won 10 of their last 13 home World Cup Qualifiers. A couple of those wins have been tight, but Ecuador should be encouraged to take the game to Venezuela who have conceded plenty of away goals and also have suffered a number of losses by at least a couple of goals margin.

Ultimately I expect the home team to outclass Venezuela in this one and eventually make their quality tell. Ecuador have been scoring goals and I expect they will be able to make their dominance tell on the scoreboard at the end of this one.

Ecuador have won 3 of the last 5 games against Venezuela and all of those have come by at least two goals and I will back them to do the same this week.

Argentina v Colombia PickFor all the attacking talent that Argentina can call upon, it has to be highly frustrating for the fans to see their side struggling in front of goal. They have failed to score in their last 2 World Cup Qualifiers and Argentina have only scored 4 goals in 5 home Qualifiers which is remarkable.

Teams do come and sit in deep against them but you would think the likes of Angel Di Maria, Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero would do better than that. They are likely to see Colombia do the same on Tuesday as they look to counter the home team and earn a surprise result here.

It isn't a 'must win' situation for Argentina, but they can't really afford another loss and they do have a good recent record against Colombia. Every game has been tight though and I have little doubt that this one is going to be competitive until the final whistle too.

I do think Argentina are going to right the ship but they are going to be challenged throughout this one. It will be tough and tight but I think the home team still have the quality to find a breakthrough and earn the three points. The layers have Argentina as a pretty healthy favourite, but I think a small interest on the home team winning this one by exactly one goal is the pick.

Chile v Uruguay PickGames between Chile and Uruguay have actually be closely contested when they have played in Chile and those games haven't produced the attacking football that some might expect. This one might buck the trend though as Chile have been scoring plenty of goals at home, although conceding a fair amount, while Uruguay have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away World Cup Qualifiers but have also scored in all but one of those games.

There is plenty on the line for both Chile and Uruguay in this one and that should mean they both take a few chances to get into a strong position in the Group. Uruguay's poor away record is a concern and losing Alexis Sanchez is a blow for the home team, but I can see both playing their part in this one and I can see chances being created.

With Luis Suarez leading the line for Uruguay you would think they can take their opportunities when they are presented, but there is a little more doubt about Chile. However I don't think Uruguay have defended well enough to keep a clean sheet and I am looking for these teams to combine for at least three goals on Tuesday.

The layers have been dangling a tempting price for at least three goals to be scored and I will back that here.

Peru v Brazil PickIn previous years Brazil would have come into this World Cup Qualifier in Peru as a big favourite if they had been on a 5 game winning run like they are this time. However that shows how far Peru have improved in recent months that Brazil are the favourites but at a much bigger price than you may expect.

They are still odds on though and that looks too short for me when you consider the goals Peru have managed to score at home. This is a team that showed plenty of heart to come from 1-0 down in Paraguay and record a 1-4 win which puts Peru back in the race for a place at the World Cup Finals.

Peru have also drawn with Argentina and beaten Ecuador in the World Cup Qualifiers at home and they have been scoring enough goals to put pressure on Brazil. On the other hand, Brazil have been averaging three goals per game over their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers and are fresh off an impressive 3-0 dismantling of Argentina last week.

Wins in Ecuador and Venezuela have come with some level of comfort and Brazil have been showing off the attacking their nation is synonymous with.

Both teams will feel they are better going forward and I think this will be a fairly entertaining game that should produce goals. The last two World Cup Qualifiers here have both ended 1-1, but I can see there being a few more chances for both Peru and Brazil to find a decider in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared in this one.

MY PICKS: Bolivia-Paraguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ecuador - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Argentina to Win by One Goal @ 3.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Chile-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Peru-Brazil Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

November Update12-20-1, - 15.68 Units (65 Units Staked, - 24.12% Yield)

October Final29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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