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Saturday, 5 November 2016

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (November 5-6)

October proved to be a pretty crappy month for the picks and the opening of November hasn't been much better with some poor picks coupled with bad luck not helping my cause. I had a really poor start to the 2015/16 season which I have been hoping to avoid, but I need to start putting the winners on the board.

This is the final week before the international break which is the last one until March. For teams in England it also means the last break before the really busy festive period which is fast approaching, while the remainder of November has some huge matches to be played too.

I am concentrating on the Premier League alone this weekend to try and get the November totals turned back around and I am looking to put some winners on the board although the majority of the matches won't be played until Sunday.

Manchester City v Middlesbrough Pick: I did say I thought Manchester City's defeat to Barcelona in Spain two weeks ago was by a scoreline that flattered the home team, but there was nothing flattering about Manchester City's 3-1 win over them here during the week. That was a deserved result and Manchester City had chances for more goals while coming back from a 0-1 deficit to win that game shows the Champions League Semi Finalists from last season are a threat to win it all this time around.

There is a lot of football to be played before then and Manchester City are going to have to refocus on the Premier League where they have had some mixed results of late. Having a full attacking squad at their call is huge for Pep Guardiola who should be able to pick a starting eleven which should be far too good for Middlesbrough.

The problem for Middlesbrough is that they don't seem to have a lot of goals in the side and Manchester City are unlikely to come out as flat as Arsenal did in a home game against Middlesbrough a couple of weeks ago. Clean sheets have been a problem for Manchester City, but that might not be the case this weekend and they have been stronger at home as long as they can avoid the big mistakes that have allowed the likes of West Ham United, Everton and Southampton to score here.

With the possession that Manchester City are likely to have and Gaston Ramirez being ruled out for Middlesbrough it is hard to see how the away team will score in this one. This Manchester City side don't look like they will go too many games without scoring and I think backing them to win this one with a clean sheet is the call.

Chelsea v Everton PickChelsea have been producing some impressive results since Antonio Conte resorted to his favoured formation and they have been scoring goals for fun in that time. That has impressed the layers who have set Chelsea as a short favourite to beat Everton at home, but I am still not fully convinced about the home team and feel the more managers have seen of them will have them work out the best way to attack them.

Some of the results have been flattering with early goals against Manchester United and Southampton changing the way the game might have developed. Getting in front allows Chelsea to play with the counter attacking they prefer and both Eden Hazard and Diego Costa are in magnificent form which has to be respected.

However they are going up against one of the better managers in the Premier League who should have Everton well organised like they were at Manchester City where they frustrated the home team. Romelu Lukaku would love to get one over on his former team and Everton have matched up well with Chelsea over the last twelve months.

There are new systems in place, but Everton are capable of making life difficult for the home team and better defending at set pieces should give them a chance to get something out of this game. Chelsea have been battering teams, but their clean sheets are something of a mirage with Southampton having a clear goal disallowed and Manchester United very close to breaking through against them too.

Ronald Koeman had a solid record with Southampton against Chelsea and Everton can get something from this game. It would surprise me if Chelsea are able to see them off easily this week despite winning 4 Premier League games in a row by at least two goals each time, and I think an Everton goal might give them a chance for a surprise result here. Backing Everton with a goal start on the Asian Handicap looks a big price.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur PickFor all the praise that Mauricio Pochettino gets for turning around Tottenham Hotspur and making them one of the better teams in England, he has to take the criticism that comes with the poor recent form. The side looked flat on Wednesday as they moved to the brink of exiting the Champions League and they are missing Harry Kane massively as they are without a goal in open play since the 1-1 draw at West Brom three weeks ago.

This looks a bad time for Tottenham Hotspur to visit The Emirates Stadium where Arsenal are playing with plenty of confidence and scoring plenty of goals. The 2-3 win in Bulgaria will only have bolstered the confidence and Arsenal look ready to snap their recent run of games without a win in this North London derby in the Premier League.

I 'Tweeted' on Wednesday that Tottenham Hotspur might take a battering if they defend as badly as they did on Wednesday against Bayer Leverkusen and I do fear for them. It looks like Toby Alderweireld will be unavailable, or at least not at 100%, while Harry Kane is another major doubt despite returning to training this week.

Both are hugely influential players and Tottenham Hotspur's only real hope is that Huge Lloris plays a worldly game in goal.

With Arsenal flowing with goals, I think they will have too much for their opponents and can win this at an attractive price.

Liverpool v Watford PickYou have to respect the way Watford have been operating even when they dismiss managers in surprising fashion and yet still continue to move forward in a positive manner. Coming into November above Manchester United in the Premier League table will excite the fans, but recent weeks has seen them picking up points against teams that have been in the bottom half of the table.

Suffice to say that Liverpool are going to offer them a tough examination of their credentials in what is their toughest away test of the Premier League season so far. Watford struggled when they visited the top teams last season and they have played two of the current top four this season but been beaten at home by Chelsea and Arsenal.

Visiting Anfield is a much different test than hosting those big teams and Watford were beaten comfortably here last season. With the goals in the Liverpool side it is going to be very difficult for Watford to achieve much here this week, although there has to be some concerns with the amount of goals Liverpool keep conceding.

The fans might not like to hear it, but I see similarities with this Liverpool team and the one that came close to winning the title under Brendan Rodgers. Both don't have European competition to distract them, both were impressive going forward but both also had some defensive problems that ultimately cost them.

I can't see how Jurgen Klopp's style can be maintained over the course of the season, but for now the players should be fresh and able to keep their pressing going. I expect their attacking players to create chances against Watford who have conceded at least twice at Burnley and West Ham United and I think Liverpool will have a little too much for them this weekend.

The goals being conceded makes it hard to trust Liverpool to win games easily, but they have been 2-0 up in their last couple of home games and only some poor finishing has prevented them winning those games easily. Watford may score here, but Liverpool can win by a couple of goals this weekend to go into the international break with some confidence.

Swansea City v Manchester United PickIt has been a tough run of games for Manchester United when performances have not been rewarded as much as they perhaps should have been. Those are mainly in games at Old Trafford against Stoke City and Burnley, but Manchester United couldn't point to poor fortunes costing them in Istanbul on Thursday when they were beaten at Fenerbahce.

The Europa League will recommence at the end of the month and Manchester United still have control of their own destiny, but the pressure is on in the Premier League as they try and close the gap to the top four. Two of those sides have very winnable home games this weekend while the other is a favourite in a derby game so the pressure is on Manchester United to win at The Liberty Stadium.

That won't be easy, but Swansea City have not been in great form themselves and have been conceding plenty of goals. Bob Bradley has come in as manager and the positives from the 3-2 loss at Arsenal have been replaced with two poorer performances as Swansea City continue to struggle defensively.

However Bradley has to think he can put together enough of an attacking game plan to challenge a makeshift Manchester United defence that were pulled around in Fenerbahce. The likes of Fernando Llorente and Borja Baston will feel they can finish off chances that Swansea City create in this game.

I am expecting goals at both ends of the field and Manchester United away games have continued to feature goals for the most part. Prior to the goalless draw with Watford, Swansea City had seen 4 straight games at home where three goals had been shared out and that looks the most likely outcome of this one.

7 of the last 8 between Manchester United and Swansea City have gone that way including the last 3 at The Liberty Stadium and I will back goals in this one.

Leicester City v West Brom PickIt is a real surprise to me that Leicester City have such a poor recent home record against West Brom, but I do feel they can snap that this weekend as Claudio Ranieri looks to improve the Premier League form.

The Champions League has been taken care of for all extents and purposes and one more point sends Leicester City into the Last 16 of that competition. While some have suggested The Foxes are focusing on the Champions League, I simply think Leicester City have come back to their average form while also having a really difficult fixture list to this point.

They have been better at home though and I think being her will make a difference. Leicester City have won 3 of their last 4 games here in all competitions and they are much more comfortable at the King Power Stadium although West Brom are never a team that you can rule out easily.

Tony Pulis will make his team hard to beat and West Brom will look to restrict the space in which Leicester City thrive. Jamie Vardy is out of form and Kasper Schmeichel is out so West Brom might feel they have a chance, especially as Leicester City have been having issues defending set pieces.

However I think Leicester City being at home will work a way to break down this West Brom team who have not been keeping clean sheets and I will back them to win this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Everton + 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

November Update: 5-10, - 9.78 Units (30 Units Staked, - 32.60% Yield)

October Final29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

1 comment:

  1. Kami mempunyai semua hal yang dapat anda pilih, dari yang paling umum sampai yang paling populer. Jenis taruhan terbaik kami dan jenis yang paling populer adalah: Asian Handicaps (Pasaran Asia), Over & Under (Besar & Kecil), Odd & Even (Ganjil & Genap), 1 x 2 Fixed Odds (Pasaran 1 X 2), Correct Score (Skor yang benar), Total Goal (Jumlah total semua goal), Mix Parlay (Parlay campuran) dan Special Outright Betting (taruhan langsung khusus).