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Thursday, 3 November 2016

NFL Week 9 Picks 2016 (November 3-7)

The NFL season is progressing at the rate of knots it feels and we are over half way through the 2016 season in Week 9. That means we are through the trade deadline and not many would have seen Jamie Collins being moved from the New England Patriots to the Cleveland Browns, although the majority of the big names that were rumoured to be on the trading block didn't make any moves.

Teams are now set as they are going through to the post-season and beyond and Las Vegas has tipped up the New England Patriots versus the Dallas Cowboys as the most likely Super Bowl. There is still plenty of Football to be played before we get to that point, but those two teams do look the best in their respective Conferences at this moment in time.

However I have seen teams get hot in December too often to pay too much attention to form in October and there is always a couple of dangerous teams floating close to the top of the standings that have to be looked out for. I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be much better than they showed in the home loss to the Patriots, while the NFC could see a team like the Green Bay Packers get hot once their Defensive players are back from injury especially with Aaron Rodgers beginning to look more like his old self.

Week 8 was a second good one for the NFL Picks and that has turned a losing record into a winning one for the season. I've gone 10-5 over the last two weeks to get things moving in the right direction, but again there is a lot of Football to be played before the 2016 season is finished and I just hope I can keep finding the right games on the weekly schedule.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The NFC South takes centre stage on Thursday Night Football to open up Week 9 of the NFL season as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons edged over the Green Bay Packers last Sunday and are in complete control of the Division, but a defeat to the Buccaneers would open things back up for the likes of the Carolina Panthers who can get hot at this time of the season.

The Falcons have lost some close games this season, but the most disappointing one might be the home loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1. They were favoured to win that game and are favoured to win again as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew the chance to beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 8 and have put themselves in a spot of bother.

Matt Ryan has been in solid form for Atlanta and showed that is capable of playing without Julio Jones at full tilt. It looks like Jones might not be a big factor in this one either, but Ryan can still have a solid day throwing the ball against a Tampa Bay Secondary who have given up close to 300 passing yards per game in their last three games.

They have been able to get some pressure up front and the Atlanta Offensive Line has had their problems, but Ryan is mobile enough to get out of the pocket and look to make his plays downfield. Also Ryan has shown an ability to run for First Downs when teams have lined up in man coverage so he should have a strong game statistically.

It won't be all about Ryan though as the Tampa Bay Defensive Line have really been a problem in recent weeks as they have given up 5.5 yards per carry in their last three games. Devonta Freeman has been banged up a little of late, but he is able to make some plays running the ball, while is also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield which should help the Falcons make some consistent plays Offensively throughout the sixty minutes of this game.

The Buccaneers will need to match them score for score and it does have to be said that Jameis Winston has enjoyed playing this team in his career. However Winston has just been having some issues connecting with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate in the passing game on a consistent basis although playing this Atlanta Secondary might help him get over those.

Atalanta have been able to show they can get to the Quarter Back though and that might stall some of the drives while Tampa Bay have plenty of injuries on the Running Back unit which might prevent them having much joy establishing the run. The Falcons have just knuckled down on the Defensive Line to slow the running yards that they are giving up which means it will be up to Winston to make the plays to keep the team moving forward.

There have just been a few more issues for Tampa Bay in recent weeks and it is hard to ignore the fact they have given up almost 100 more yards in three of their last four games. Doing that against the Falcons is only going to lead to one winner in my mind and I like the Falcons to do that here.

The potential for a shoot out could mean a backdoor cover for Tampa Bay which would be a concern for my pick, but I think the Falcons are the better team and can get revenge for their home loss in Week 1. Winston might have won each time he has played this Divisional rival, but it can be Matt Ryan's day who should be backed by the stronger running game and that can help the Falcons win a high-scoring game by at least seven points.

I've had a busy week so not been able to do the usual breakdown of games from the Sunday NFL games, but I have the picks in the 'MY PICKS' section.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Stan James (2 Units)
New York Jets + 4 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 7 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 8: 5-2, + 5.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Week 75-3, + 3.36 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21% Yield)
Week 63-3, - 0.46 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 52-3-1, - 2.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 19.67% Yield)
Week 45-5, + 0.26 Units (19 Units Staked, + 1.37% Yield)
Week 32-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 25-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)

Week 14-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

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