For the English teams it might feel especially important to make sure they get through to the next phase of these competitions so they don't have to tax too many of the first team players ahead of what is the busiest time of the season for them. Arsenal, Manchester City and Leicester City can achieve that goal this week with two of those teams also capable of wrapping up top spot in the Group.
Southampton may also do the same in the Europa League, but both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United already know that they have plenty of work to do and that will mean having to take Match Day 6 seriously in the early part of December.
It is a big week for those English clubs as well as for Celtic from Scotland and Dundalk from the Republic of Ireland with both teams hoping they can surprise and make it into the Europa League Last 32 from contrasting positions. Both clubs will feel they have achieved their main goal of entering the Group Stage of the Champions League/Europa League respectively but both Celtic and Dundalk are an upset or two from extending their stay in European football beyond Christmas.
The month has been a difficult one for the picks and I can't seem to get out of my own way nor get the luck that some of these should have done. Manchester United conceding late on Saturday, undeservedly so, means the numbers stayed at the same level for the month, but that result alone would have made a big dent in a positive direction for the picks.
There is still time to get this turned around, but just reducing the negative numbers would be a good way to go into December and then hopefully start having a little more fortune behind the picks.
CSKA Moscow v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: The early kick off from Tuesday's Champions League games comes from Russia and it seems all the money has been pouring in on the away side to win this game. That is an obvious concern with CSKA Moscow needing two wins to have any chance of making it through to the Second Round of the Champions League and perhaps to even finish in 3rd place and entry into the Europa League.
Perhaps some of the focus for CSKA Moscow has moved away from the European competitions as they look to close the 9 point gap in the Russian League to Spartak Moscow, but even so I am not sure Bayer Leverkusen should be odds on to win here.
Yes Bayer Leverkusen have won 2 in a row away from home including the huge 0-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur on Match Day 4 in a game played at Wembley Stadium. However this is a team that has been inconsistent all season and you can't always tell what kind of performance they are going to produce on any given day.
Before the win in London, Bayer Leverkusen had failed to win any of 7 away games in the Champions League since their 1-2 win at Zenit St Petersburg, although the majority of those games have been played against teams that are arguably stronger than CSKA Moscow. That does suggest they will have a chance in this one, but a draw is not a bad return for Bayer Leverkusen either as that will keep the pressure on Tottenham Hotspur in 3rd place and also mean they can still win the Group by beating Monaco in their final game barring a Monaco win over Tottenham Hotspur in the other game to be played on Match Day 5.
The rapidly shortening price on Bayer Leverkusen does bother me with the suggestion that CSKA Moscow are not that interested in this game, but I can't have them at odds on to win here. I will back the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap knowing they have lost 1 of their last 8 at home in all competitions and CSKA Moscow have lost just 2 of their last 9 home games in the Champions League.
Borussia Dortmund v Legia Warsaw Pick: Trouble in the first game between Borussia Dortmund and Legia Warsaw in Poland meant the fans of the Polish side were not able to see their side perform admirably in a 3-3 home draw with Real Madrid. That has been a high point for Legia Warsaw in a Group where they have found the quality of opponents hard to contain which has led to 16 goals conceded in their four Group games and now this very difficult away test to come.
There is now every chance Borussia Dortmund can top this Group if they can pick up four points from their final two Group games and most fans will expect to see their team pick up a comprehensive win this week. Dortmund hammered Legia Warsaw 0-6 in the first game and while they are not likely to reach that margin again, I do think they are capable of winning by the three goals needed to cover the Asian Handicap.
You cannot doubt it is a big number, but Legia Warsaw have conceded at least three times against Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid in their three games against these European giants in this Group. Borussia Dortmund should also be playing with the confidence that comes from beating Bayern Munich as they did this past weekend and I can only see them having the majority of the play and ultimately being too good for Legia Warsaw.
The latter have found it tough at some of the better European teams in recent seasons and conceded five in a heavy loss to Napoli in the Europa League last season. The home fans are always treated to attacking performances from Borussia Dortmund and I would be surprised if that was to change on Match Day 5 and I will back the German side to record a second one sided win over Legia Warsaw.
Leicester City v Club Brugge Pick: The suggestions that Leicester City are focusing more on the Champions League than the Premier League have been put to rest, but that has nothing to do with recent form The Foxes have displayed. Instead the slide down towards the bottom three has seen Claudio Ranieri play strong teams that have underachieved or perhaps been found out by others in the Premier League.
It is the away form that has really suffered and been the reason Leicester City have slipped in the League table. For the most part they have still been solid at home and they won't have played too many teams of this level of Club Brugge in the Premier League or the rest of this Champions League Group.
No disrespect to Club Brugge, but I do think they would massively struggle in the Premier League and would find some of those clubs in the Championship a real challenge. They were very poor when being dismissed by Manchester United in the 2015/16 season and Club Brugge have found the Champions League level too much with defeats in all 4 games they have played.
The two games with Porto resulted in narrow losses, but Club Brugge were outplayed and only some poor finishing from Porto prevented the margin being much wider. Leicester City have not exactly been scoring a boatload of goals in recent weeks, but they should create enough chances in this one against a Club Brugge team that don't defend that well.
Jamie Vardy has rediscovered his usual level it seems, but a goal last week for England might spark some sort of turnaround and I think the home team will be too good. I considered backing them to win to nil, but I think Leicester City could find a killer goal in the second half to put Club Brugge away and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in the fear they will continue to concede goals as they have.
I can see Leicester City scoring enough to cover this number though and I will back The Foxes to get back to winning ways.
Monaco v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The game between CSKA Moscow and Bayer Leverkusen is going to have a big impact on what is on the line for Monaco and Tottenham Hotspur and both clubs should be aware of the result by the time they go out onto the field for this game. The fixture in Russia is being played earlier in the day so all should be revealed as to the permutations coming out of this fixture, but Mauricio Pochettino has to think anything less than a win is going to be curtains for Tottenham Hotspur.
A win would arguably make Tottenham Hotspur favourites to go through to the Second Round of the Champions League, but playing in Monaco is going to be very tough. Monaco have been really good at home all season and they have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games here while they have only lost 1 of their last 8 home European games.
The home team are going to feel they can create chances against this Tottenham Hotspur team who are missing Toby Alderweireld. Tottenham Hotspur conceded twice to West Ham United, but even recent clean sheets and low scoring games have been thanks to some special saves from Hugo Lloris and poor finishing from opponents.
Monaco shouldn't be worried about lacking any clinical finishing as they have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 7 games at home. They have kept a couple of clean sheets, but Tottenham Hotspur have Harry Kane back in the starting line up and should also have Dele Alli available which gives them a threat going forward.
I really think both teams are going to score in this one even if Monaco's home ground has not always had the best playing surface. The home team might feel a draw is a good enough result to get them through to the Second Round, but they must also want to win the Group so Monaco should get forward, while Tottenham Hotspur have no choice but to attack and try to win here.
Finding goals in Tottenham Hotspur away games have been tough in recent weeks, but I think the return of Kane is big for them. Monaco home games have been more high-scoring and the factor around this game might make it more open than those recent Spurs games and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.
Arsenal v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Anyone who saw the first game between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal would have been asking how the latter managed to get away with a 1-1 draw considering the chances the home team produced. That result has given Arsenal the edge in winning this Group, but both teams have plenty on the line with the winning team on Match Day 5 assured of top spot.
The draw would mean going into Match Day 6 with 1st place to be decided, but I do think the fact that both Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain have made it through to the Second Round already should make this an open game. Neither has anything to lose but everything to gain and the freedom should come knowing that a defeat doesn't knock the losers chances of making it through to the Second Round.
Of course winning these Champions League Groups are huge to avoid a potentially very tough Second Round tie, but Paris Saint-Germain might feel they have to win here to do that. Arsenal have the edge when it comes to the goal difference and Paris Saint-Germain need to score at least twice to edge the head to head and that should open up the game.
Paris Saint-Germain have scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions while they have also reached that number in 6 of their last 9 Champions League games. The French Champions should play this game with plenty of attacking intent and that should make it a game that Arsenal can enjoy too with the spaces they should be able to find going the other way.
It should be a game with chances at both ends as the top spot in the Group is on the line and that should see both teams trying to win the game. I have no idea how the first match in Paris only had two goals scored, and I expect this one to go a little further even if Arsenal have drawn their last two games 1-1.
The 1-1 draw doesn't really do a lot for Paris Saint-Germain as they would need Arsenal to fail to win their last game or hope to outscore them by at least three goals on Match Day 6. That should mean they keep this an open game if the game is going into the final 15 minutes at 1-1 and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a decent price.
Atletico Madrid v PSV Eindhoven Pick: This was a Group that was expected to be dominated by both Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich, two of the four Semi Finalists from the Champions League in 2016. That is the way it has panned out, but there are still plenty of things on the line going into the final two rounds of games with top spot very important for both teams.
Both teams have ambitions of going all the way this season in the Champions League so would love to avoid a really tough Second Round tie with the likes of Barcelona a potential opponent for Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund for Atletico Madrid if they finish 2nd in the Group. That should keep Atletico Madrid focused as they currently have a 3 point gap over Bayern Munich which could have closed if the latter have won at Rostov earlier in the day.
Any other result and Atletico Madrid can win the Group by beating PSV Eindhoven and I do find it hard not to imagine the home side bouncing back from their 0-3 hammering here at the hands of Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid had scored plenty of goals in home games prior to that setback and it will be difficult for PSV Eindhoven to stay with them and their goal must be to finish above Rostov in the Group and at least reach the Europa League.
PSV Eindhoven will host Rostov on Match Day 6 but need to improve the form that has seen them win 2 of their last 10 games in all competitions. They are unbeaten in their last couple of away games, but PSV Eindhoven have suffered heavy losses at Bayern Munich and Sparta Rotterdam and that has left them a little off the pace in the Dutch top flight.
I think this match just simply doesn't mean as much to PSV as it does for Atletico and the goals scored by the Spaniards in recent games suggests they can pull away from their visitors. It might take a late goal to get over the line, but I do think Atletico Madrid can score that and win this one by a couple of goals and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Manchester City Pick: With all of the injuries in the Borussia Monchengladbach and suspensions going into Match Day 5, it is hard to see how they can stay with Manchester City in this Champions League game. Playing away from home is not easy for any team in this competition, and Borussia Monchengladbach have shown they cause problems having led in defeats to Barcelona and Manchester City.
It also has to be noticed that Manchester City don't have the best away record in the Champions League and barely got away from Celtic with a draw. However they have played some of the better teams in Europe in recent away games and Manchester City have shown they can win in some tough venues with a victory over the likes of Sevilla and Dynamo Kiev in the last twelve months.
I do think Borussia Monchengladbach will pose some problems for Manchester City in this one, but I am not sure they will be able to contain a team that can score goals on their travels.
Manchester City have scored at least twice in 8 of their 11 away games this season in all competitions and getting to that total will be very difficult for Borussia Monchengladbach to keep up with them. The home team have only scored more than one goal in 1 of their last 6 games here and I do think Manchester City will come away with the big three points and a place in the Second Round.
I considered backing Manchester City to win a game in which both teams score, but I will just stick to the basics and back them to win this one without worrying about the score.
Celtic v Barcelona Pick: A few weeks ago I backed Celtic to give Manchester City a few questions and even score against them, but no one would have expected a 3-3 draw in that game. Back then I mentioned how good Celtic can be at home in these big European nights, but they do need to be on the right side of the luck in those games against the very best teams in European football.
They didn't have much when beaten by Borussia Monchengladbach here and Celtic were also beaten by both Molde and Ajax in the Europa League Group Stage last season. A team like Barcelona might not have the greatest away record recent games in the Champions League, but many of those games have come against much better teams than Celtic.
Barcelona have lost 3 of 8 away games, but those came at Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Manchester City. You simply cannot ignore the fact that this team has recorded comfortable wins at Ajax, APOEL, Paris Saint-German, BATE Borisov and Arsenal in the last two years and Barcelona have got plenty of goals in the side to expose what has been a soft underbelly that Celtic have exposed in these European games.
I do think Celtic can pose some problems for a Barcelona team that haven't defended well, but Lionel Messi could be back and most of the possession will be dominated by the away team. Barcelona have had some tough nights at Celtic Park over the last twelve years, but they do look considerably stronger than their opponents this time and Celtic do need to give this game a go with at least one win needed if they have any hope of getting into the Europa League at least.
Celtic having to push forward should play into Barcelona's hands with their best chance of a win from their final two games coming at Celtic Park. I can see the Catalan giants having their chance to finish Celtic off late in this game and I am going to back Barcelona to match the Borussia Monchengladbach margin of victory and cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Qabala v Anderlecht Pick: This is a real chance for Anderlecht to make it through to the Last 32 in the Europa League as they head to Qabala to face a club that have lost all 4 Group games. A win or a draw for Anderlecht coupled with a Saint-Etienne home win over Mainz will be enough to send those two clubs through to the Last 32, but Anderlecht don't have the luxury of knowing their fate before this game.
They have earned solid draws at Saint-Etienne and Mainz away from home in the Group and it does have to be said that a draw is not the worst result here. However Anderlecht have to look at the fact that Qabala have conceded at least twice in both home games in the section and 6 of their last 8 home Europa League games have ended with at least three goals shared.
That has much to do with the fact that Qabala can play their part in home games and have scored in their last 6 home games in the Europa League. The 1-1 scoreline is one that concerns me, but I think there is enough for Anderlecht to gain with a win to try and get forward and score the winning goal, while Qabala will want to end their Group participation with a win.
The layers have placed the chances of seeing at least three goals at odds against, but I like the chances of that happening and will back that to occur here.
Fenerbahce v Zorya Luhansk Pick: This Group has proven that winning away from home is going to be difficult for any of the four teams so every home game is vital, especially for the top three teams that are fighting it out for the top two places. Manchester United and Feyenoord meet at Old Trafford later in the evening, but Fenerbahce can put the pressure on by beating Zorya Luhansk at home in an early kick off.
Fenerbahce have already beaten both Feyenoord and Manchester United in the Group which leaves them top of the Group and they will be expected to beat Zorya Luhansk. The latter have struggled against the teams in this section and lost in both Rotterdam and Manchester and that is the reason Zorya Luhansk are out of contention having been held to 1-1 draws in both home games.
It is hard to see Zorya Luhansk finding the motivation to keep competing in this one with arguably the biggest game to come on Match Day 6. They have not been in the best of form which doesn't inspire much confidence and are facing a Fenerbahce team who have won 5 in a row in all competitions and have scored at least twice in their last 4 games.
With the lack of goals that Zorya Luhansk have produced in this Group, Fenerbahce scoring twice should be enough to secure the points in this one and I do think the Turkish side win. I will back them to become the first team to cover the Asian Handicap at home against Zorya Luhansk in this Group at odds against as I am expecting a win by at least a couple of goals.
Zenit St Petersburg v Maccabi Tel Aviv Pick: With Zenit St Petersburg already through to the Last 32 of the Europa League having won the Group, there might be a suggestion the home team could 'ease off the gas' on Match Day 5. However they have been playing really well at home and Zenit St Petersburg won't want to snap the momentum they have built up here.
They have found the home Europa League games much more comfortable than the Champions League ones and Zenit have won 15 of their last 17 Europa League games at home. That is an impressive statistic and Zenit St Petersburg have won all 4 games in the Group with goals not being an issue for them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have to feel they have a chance for a bonus point or three when they head to Russia considering the home team have achieved their goal in the Group. However they have not been as good on their travels as they are at home and have lost games at Dundalk and Hapoel Be'er Sheva in recent weeks.
The side did secure a late win at AZ Alkmaar to snap a run of consecutive away losses in the Europa League, but Maccabi Tel Aviv will recognise this is the best team they have played since losing 3-0 in Basel in 2014.
The odds do suggest the layers are factoring in the lack of motivation the home side potentially has in this game, but I think Zenit St Petersburg will be too good for Maccabi Tel Aviv. At a price not that far short of evens, I am going to back the home team to put another three points on the board and leave the Runner Up position to be up for grabs in Match Day 6.
Ajax v Panathinaikos Pick: At this stage of the Champions League or Europa League Groups you have to realise that some teams will not have the same motivation as earlier in the Group. That could be said for Ajax who have already moved through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and have a big game at Heerenveen in three days time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
That suggests they will likely make some changes, but Ajax have been scoring goals for fun at the Amsterdam Arena and confirm their place as Group winners with a victory which should keep them focused. They have a long unbeaten run to protect which is the kind of momentum that Peter Bosz will not want to see end while Ajax are also facing a Panathinaikos team that haven't played a competitive game since the first week of November.
Greek Football has been suspended after a referee was essentially threatened and that means Panathinaikos have not really had the best preparation for this game. They had been in poor form prior to the suspension and are effectively out of this Europa League competition barring some stunning results over the last four games to be played in the Group.
Not having competitive football means Panathinaikos could be caught out here despite their players likely to be ready to go. However Panathinaikos have been conceding goals for fun away from home which doesn't inspire much confidence here and I am going to back Ajax to continue their hot form and win this game by a couple of goals.
Ajax have conceded some late goals to make some of their games look closer than they have been, but I expect Bosz to demand a performance from his players and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Celta Vigo v Standard Liege Pick: Ajax have already made it through to the Last 32 and the winner of this match is going to join them in the next Round. That should mean there is plenty of attacking intention through the course of the match with an early goal likely to open things up as the team falling behind is going to have to chase to get back into things.
Recent games involving Celta Vigo have tended to drift towards the high-scoring end of things and the last 5 home games they have played has seen at least three goals shared out. Celta Vigo have been able to score goals, but they have looked suspect at the back and the question here is whether Standard Liege can expose those vulnerabilities.
That has been an issue for Standard Liege when coming up to the Europa League level compared with domestic football in Belgium, but the importance of the win, or at least avoiding defeat, may keep things open in this one. There is every chance an attacking team like Celta Vigo could cover the three goals on their own, but I do think Standard Liege will have some chances too.
Therefore backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the call in this one.
Krasnodar v Salzburg Pick: Schalke have won the Group, but the remaining three clubs in the section all have a chance of moving through to the Second Round. The team with most control of their destiny is Krasnodar who know a win on Thursday should be enough to move through in 2nd place.
That result coupled should be enough even if Nice were to beat Schalke as Krasnodar would need to be beaten by three clear goals in their final game in France to be knocked out. Krasnodar can also go through with a draw if Nice lose to Schalke, but the wild card in the Group is Salzburg who have won 0-2 at Nice on Match Day 4.
That win means Salzburg have a chance to go through if they can win their remaining two games and hope Nice and Krasnodar can drop points in their games. It should mean Salzburg go on the attack, but I have to respect the fact that Krasnodar have won 8 of their 10 home Europa League games and they have scored plenty of goals in those games.
Defeats to Schalke would have knocked confidence, but Krasnodar have scored at least twice in their last 3 home games in all competitions and reaching that total should give them every chance to win this game. I do like their chances and I think Salzburg have been a little too inconsistent in recent away games to think they can spring a second surprise in a row in this Group.
At odds against Krasnodar look an appealing price and I will back the Russian side to earn a victory.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Konyaspor Pick: As I mentioned in the Ajax versus Panathinaikos game being played at the same time as this one, it can be hard to read into the motivation of a team that has not only made it through to the Last 32 but have also won the Group. That is where Shakhtar Donetsk find themselves, but, like Ajax, the side have built a lot of momentum and won't want to dent confidence with defeats in their last couple of Europa League games.
This Shakhtar Donetsk team reached the Semi Final of the Europa League back in April before finding eventual winners Sevilla too strong over two Legs. They have been very strong at home in European competition in recent games and I do think they are going to be too good for Konyaspor in this one.
It is up to the away team to try and make the play having left themselves in a position where only 2 wins from their final couple of games will be give them even a chance of making it through to the Last 32. However Konyaspor don't have a lot of European experience and that has shown up in comfortable defeats at Gent and Sporting Braga while now taking on the strongest team in the Group.
With Shakhtar Donetsk winning games and scoring plenty of goals, I do think Konyaspor will struggle to contain them in this one. I fear it will be a third straight loss away from home in the Group by at least two goals and I am going to back Shakhtar Donetsk to cover the Asian Handicap.
Athletic Bilbao v Sassuolo Pick: Group F of the Europa League is wide open, but Athletic Bilbao can put themselves in a very strong position to move through to the Last 32 if they can win this game. That place would be confirmed if Genk are also victorious in Match Day 5, but Athletic Bilbao will only be concentrating on the task in front of them.
Facing a Sassuolo team who have been conceding a huge amount of goals looks to have come at the right time for Athletic Bilbao. There will be some revenge on their minds after being beaten 3-0 in Italy on Match Day 1, but Athletic Bilbao do look in a better position now.
The reason you can't underestimate Sassuolo is that they have consistently shown they can score goals and that is why I am looking for at least three goals to be shared by these teams. While Sassuolo score goals, they have been conceding at an alarming rate and Athletic Bilbao are certainly the kind of team that can take advantage of that.
Sassuolo have conceded at least twice in their last 5 games in all competitions but they can play their part here to help this game hit at least three goals shared out.
Manchester United v Feyenoord Pick: The Europa League might not have been top priority for Manchester United fans in the summer, but Jose Mourinho wasn't as dismissive of the competition as some thought he might be. Strong teams have been picked in the Europa League by Mourinho and it would be a huge blow if Manchester United were to be knocked out in the Group.
That means they cannot begin to contemplate a defeat in this one, but Manchester United have won both games in the Group at Old Trafford and should be confident. Any similarity to the level of performance they have had in recent games at Old Trafford should result in Manchester United having enough chances to beat Feyenoord at home which will then mean Manchester United are a point away from going through to the Last 32.
There is no doubting that Manchester United have had enough chances to win many games in their games at Old Trafford since the loss to Manchester City back in September, but they have not been clinical enough. However they are hosting a team that simply isn't of the same level as what Manchester United see on a weekly basis and anything other than a home win would surprise me.
Feyenoord have to be respected as leaders of the Dutch Eredivisie, but they have had some more difficult moments of late. They have also lost 1-0 at Fenerbahce and drawn 1-1 at Zorya Luhansk in the Group away from home and I think a strong Manchester United team will be picked which could be tough for Feyenoord to deal with.
A loss doesn't end Feyenoord's chances of going through as they can beat Fenerbahce on Match Day 6 and go through regardless of the other result on Match Day 5. If they can frustrate Manchester United in the early part of this match there is a chance Feyenoord can set themselves up to be difficult to beat and look for a draw which would mean having complete control of their own destiny.
I am just not convinced they will be able to do that and am sure that Manchester United are going to start turning positive performances into positive results sooner rather than later. I am going to back Manchester United to record a big win on Thursday which can give them some momentum to take into the remaining two home games over the next week and I will take the home team to cover the Asian Handicap in this Group game.
Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: If things had gone better for these teams back in August, Roma and Viktoria Plzen could have been playing in the Champions League. Both teams were knocked out in the Qualifiers, but Roma look set to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League at least and can confirm that place with a victory on Thursday.
In fact a win on Thursday would be enough for Roma to win the Group and I think this is a team that can do that. It does have to be noted that Roma underachieve at home in European football far too often in recent seasons, and that was shown in their 3-3 draw with Austria Vienna despite Roma going into the final ten minutes with a 3-1 lead.
Roma simply don't win a lot of games here in Europe, certainly not for a club of this stature, although I am not convinced Viktoria Plzen take advantage. They haven't won at Austria Vienna or Astra in this Group and Viktoria Plzen were beaten 2-0 at Ludogorets in the Champions League Qualifiers while the pressure is on as they likely need to win this game to have a chance to extend their stay in Europe.
Pushing forward to get back into this game could see Roma pick Viktoria Plzen off as this game develops and I think Roma are going to win this game by a couple of goals. I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap at home and book their place in the Europa League Last 32 draw which takes place in a few weeks time.
Arsenal v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Anyone who saw the first game between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal would have been asking how the latter managed to get away with a 1-1 draw considering the chances the home team produced. That result has given Arsenal the edge in winning this Group, but both teams have plenty on the line with the winning team on Match Day 5 assured of top spot.
The draw would mean going into Match Day 6 with 1st place to be decided, but I do think the fact that both Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain have made it through to the Second Round already should make this an open game. Neither has anything to lose but everything to gain and the freedom should come knowing that a defeat doesn't knock the losers chances of making it through to the Second Round.
Of course winning these Champions League Groups are huge to avoid a potentially very tough Second Round tie, but Paris Saint-Germain might feel they have to win here to do that. Arsenal have the edge when it comes to the goal difference and Paris Saint-Germain need to score at least twice to edge the head to head and that should open up the game.
Paris Saint-Germain have scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions while they have also reached that number in 6 of their last 9 Champions League games. The French Champions should play this game with plenty of attacking intent and that should make it a game that Arsenal can enjoy too with the spaces they should be able to find going the other way.
It should be a game with chances at both ends as the top spot in the Group is on the line and that should see both teams trying to win the game. I have no idea how the first match in Paris only had two goals scored, and I expect this one to go a little further even if Arsenal have drawn their last two games 1-1.
The 1-1 draw doesn't really do a lot for Paris Saint-Germain as they would need Arsenal to fail to win their last game or hope to outscore them by at least three goals on Match Day 6. That should mean they keep this an open game if the game is going into the final 15 minutes at 1-1 and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a decent price.
Atletico Madrid v PSV Eindhoven Pick: This was a Group that was expected to be dominated by both Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich, two of the four Semi Finalists from the Champions League in 2016. That is the way it has panned out, but there are still plenty of things on the line going into the final two rounds of games with top spot very important for both teams.
Both teams have ambitions of going all the way this season in the Champions League so would love to avoid a really tough Second Round tie with the likes of Barcelona a potential opponent for Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund for Atletico Madrid if they finish 2nd in the Group. That should keep Atletico Madrid focused as they currently have a 3 point gap over Bayern Munich which could have closed if the latter have won at Rostov earlier in the day.
Any other result and Atletico Madrid can win the Group by beating PSV Eindhoven and I do find it hard not to imagine the home side bouncing back from their 0-3 hammering here at the hands of Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid had scored plenty of goals in home games prior to that setback and it will be difficult for PSV Eindhoven to stay with them and their goal must be to finish above Rostov in the Group and at least reach the Europa League.
PSV Eindhoven will host Rostov on Match Day 6 but need to improve the form that has seen them win 2 of their last 10 games in all competitions. They are unbeaten in their last couple of away games, but PSV Eindhoven have suffered heavy losses at Bayern Munich and Sparta Rotterdam and that has left them a little off the pace in the Dutch top flight.
I think this match just simply doesn't mean as much to PSV as it does for Atletico and the goals scored by the Spaniards in recent games suggests they can pull away from their visitors. It might take a late goal to get over the line, but I do think Atletico Madrid can score that and win this one by a couple of goals and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Manchester City Pick: With all of the injuries in the Borussia Monchengladbach and suspensions going into Match Day 5, it is hard to see how they can stay with Manchester City in this Champions League game. Playing away from home is not easy for any team in this competition, and Borussia Monchengladbach have shown they cause problems having led in defeats to Barcelona and Manchester City.
It also has to be noticed that Manchester City don't have the best away record in the Champions League and barely got away from Celtic with a draw. However they have played some of the better teams in Europe in recent away games and Manchester City have shown they can win in some tough venues with a victory over the likes of Sevilla and Dynamo Kiev in the last twelve months.
I do think Borussia Monchengladbach will pose some problems for Manchester City in this one, but I am not sure they will be able to contain a team that can score goals on their travels.
Manchester City have scored at least twice in 8 of their 11 away games this season in all competitions and getting to that total will be very difficult for Borussia Monchengladbach to keep up with them. The home team have only scored more than one goal in 1 of their last 6 games here and I do think Manchester City will come away with the big three points and a place in the Second Round.
I considered backing Manchester City to win a game in which both teams score, but I will just stick to the basics and back them to win this one without worrying about the score.
Celtic v Barcelona Pick: A few weeks ago I backed Celtic to give Manchester City a few questions and even score against them, but no one would have expected a 3-3 draw in that game. Back then I mentioned how good Celtic can be at home in these big European nights, but they do need to be on the right side of the luck in those games against the very best teams in European football.
They didn't have much when beaten by Borussia Monchengladbach here and Celtic were also beaten by both Molde and Ajax in the Europa League Group Stage last season. A team like Barcelona might not have the greatest away record recent games in the Champions League, but many of those games have come against much better teams than Celtic.
Barcelona have lost 3 of 8 away games, but those came at Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Manchester City. You simply cannot ignore the fact that this team has recorded comfortable wins at Ajax, APOEL, Paris Saint-German, BATE Borisov and Arsenal in the last two years and Barcelona have got plenty of goals in the side to expose what has been a soft underbelly that Celtic have exposed in these European games.
I do think Celtic can pose some problems for a Barcelona team that haven't defended well, but Lionel Messi could be back and most of the possession will be dominated by the away team. Barcelona have had some tough nights at Celtic Park over the last twelve years, but they do look considerably stronger than their opponents this time and Celtic do need to give this game a go with at least one win needed if they have any hope of getting into the Europa League at least.
Celtic having to push forward should play into Barcelona's hands with their best chance of a win from their final two games coming at Celtic Park. I can see the Catalan giants having their chance to finish Celtic off late in this game and I am going to back Barcelona to match the Borussia Monchengladbach margin of victory and cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Qabala v Anderlecht Pick: This is a real chance for Anderlecht to make it through to the Last 32 in the Europa League as they head to Qabala to face a club that have lost all 4 Group games. A win or a draw for Anderlecht coupled with a Saint-Etienne home win over Mainz will be enough to send those two clubs through to the Last 32, but Anderlecht don't have the luxury of knowing their fate before this game.
They have earned solid draws at Saint-Etienne and Mainz away from home in the Group and it does have to be said that a draw is not the worst result here. However Anderlecht have to look at the fact that Qabala have conceded at least twice in both home games in the section and 6 of their last 8 home Europa League games have ended with at least three goals shared.
That has much to do with the fact that Qabala can play their part in home games and have scored in their last 6 home games in the Europa League. The 1-1 scoreline is one that concerns me, but I think there is enough for Anderlecht to gain with a win to try and get forward and score the winning goal, while Qabala will want to end their Group participation with a win.
The layers have placed the chances of seeing at least three goals at odds against, but I like the chances of that happening and will back that to occur here.
Fenerbahce v Zorya Luhansk Pick: This Group has proven that winning away from home is going to be difficult for any of the four teams so every home game is vital, especially for the top three teams that are fighting it out for the top two places. Manchester United and Feyenoord meet at Old Trafford later in the evening, but Fenerbahce can put the pressure on by beating Zorya Luhansk at home in an early kick off.
Fenerbahce have already beaten both Feyenoord and Manchester United in the Group which leaves them top of the Group and they will be expected to beat Zorya Luhansk. The latter have struggled against the teams in this section and lost in both Rotterdam and Manchester and that is the reason Zorya Luhansk are out of contention having been held to 1-1 draws in both home games.
It is hard to see Zorya Luhansk finding the motivation to keep competing in this one with arguably the biggest game to come on Match Day 6. They have not been in the best of form which doesn't inspire much confidence and are facing a Fenerbahce team who have won 5 in a row in all competitions and have scored at least twice in their last 4 games.
With the lack of goals that Zorya Luhansk have produced in this Group, Fenerbahce scoring twice should be enough to secure the points in this one and I do think the Turkish side win. I will back them to become the first team to cover the Asian Handicap at home against Zorya Luhansk in this Group at odds against as I am expecting a win by at least a couple of goals.
Zenit St Petersburg v Maccabi Tel Aviv Pick: With Zenit St Petersburg already through to the Last 32 of the Europa League having won the Group, there might be a suggestion the home team could 'ease off the gas' on Match Day 5. However they have been playing really well at home and Zenit St Petersburg won't want to snap the momentum they have built up here.
They have found the home Europa League games much more comfortable than the Champions League ones and Zenit have won 15 of their last 17 Europa League games at home. That is an impressive statistic and Zenit St Petersburg have won all 4 games in the Group with goals not being an issue for them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have to feel they have a chance for a bonus point or three when they head to Russia considering the home team have achieved their goal in the Group. However they have not been as good on their travels as they are at home and have lost games at Dundalk and Hapoel Be'er Sheva in recent weeks.
The side did secure a late win at AZ Alkmaar to snap a run of consecutive away losses in the Europa League, but Maccabi Tel Aviv will recognise this is the best team they have played since losing 3-0 in Basel in 2014.
The odds do suggest the layers are factoring in the lack of motivation the home side potentially has in this game, but I think Zenit St Petersburg will be too good for Maccabi Tel Aviv. At a price not that far short of evens, I am going to back the home team to put another three points on the board and leave the Runner Up position to be up for grabs in Match Day 6.
Ajax v Panathinaikos Pick: At this stage of the Champions League or Europa League Groups you have to realise that some teams will not have the same motivation as earlier in the Group. That could be said for Ajax who have already moved through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and have a big game at Heerenveen in three days time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
That suggests they will likely make some changes, but Ajax have been scoring goals for fun at the Amsterdam Arena and confirm their place as Group winners with a victory which should keep them focused. They have a long unbeaten run to protect which is the kind of momentum that Peter Bosz will not want to see end while Ajax are also facing a Panathinaikos team that haven't played a competitive game since the first week of November.
Greek Football has been suspended after a referee was essentially threatened and that means Panathinaikos have not really had the best preparation for this game. They had been in poor form prior to the suspension and are effectively out of this Europa League competition barring some stunning results over the last four games to be played in the Group.
Not having competitive football means Panathinaikos could be caught out here despite their players likely to be ready to go. However Panathinaikos have been conceding goals for fun away from home which doesn't inspire much confidence here and I am going to back Ajax to continue their hot form and win this game by a couple of goals.
Ajax have conceded some late goals to make some of their games look closer than they have been, but I expect Bosz to demand a performance from his players and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Celta Vigo v Standard Liege Pick: Ajax have already made it through to the Last 32 and the winner of this match is going to join them in the next Round. That should mean there is plenty of attacking intention through the course of the match with an early goal likely to open things up as the team falling behind is going to have to chase to get back into things.
Recent games involving Celta Vigo have tended to drift towards the high-scoring end of things and the last 5 home games they have played has seen at least three goals shared out. Celta Vigo have been able to score goals, but they have looked suspect at the back and the question here is whether Standard Liege can expose those vulnerabilities.
That has been an issue for Standard Liege when coming up to the Europa League level compared with domestic football in Belgium, but the importance of the win, or at least avoiding defeat, may keep things open in this one. There is every chance an attacking team like Celta Vigo could cover the three goals on their own, but I do think Standard Liege will have some chances too.
Therefore backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the call in this one.
Krasnodar v Salzburg Pick: Schalke have won the Group, but the remaining three clubs in the section all have a chance of moving through to the Second Round. The team with most control of their destiny is Krasnodar who know a win on Thursday should be enough to move through in 2nd place.
That result coupled should be enough even if Nice were to beat Schalke as Krasnodar would need to be beaten by three clear goals in their final game in France to be knocked out. Krasnodar can also go through with a draw if Nice lose to Schalke, but the wild card in the Group is Salzburg who have won 0-2 at Nice on Match Day 4.
That win means Salzburg have a chance to go through if they can win their remaining two games and hope Nice and Krasnodar can drop points in their games. It should mean Salzburg go on the attack, but I have to respect the fact that Krasnodar have won 8 of their 10 home Europa League games and they have scored plenty of goals in those games.
Defeats to Schalke would have knocked confidence, but Krasnodar have scored at least twice in their last 3 home games in all competitions and reaching that total should give them every chance to win this game. I do like their chances and I think Salzburg have been a little too inconsistent in recent away games to think they can spring a second surprise in a row in this Group.
At odds against Krasnodar look an appealing price and I will back the Russian side to earn a victory.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Konyaspor Pick: As I mentioned in the Ajax versus Panathinaikos game being played at the same time as this one, it can be hard to read into the motivation of a team that has not only made it through to the Last 32 but have also won the Group. That is where Shakhtar Donetsk find themselves, but, like Ajax, the side have built a lot of momentum and won't want to dent confidence with defeats in their last couple of Europa League games.
This Shakhtar Donetsk team reached the Semi Final of the Europa League back in April before finding eventual winners Sevilla too strong over two Legs. They have been very strong at home in European competition in recent games and I do think they are going to be too good for Konyaspor in this one.
It is up to the away team to try and make the play having left themselves in a position where only 2 wins from their final couple of games will be give them even a chance of making it through to the Last 32. However Konyaspor don't have a lot of European experience and that has shown up in comfortable defeats at Gent and Sporting Braga while now taking on the strongest team in the Group.
With Shakhtar Donetsk winning games and scoring plenty of goals, I do think Konyaspor will struggle to contain them in this one. I fear it will be a third straight loss away from home in the Group by at least two goals and I am going to back Shakhtar Donetsk to cover the Asian Handicap.
Athletic Bilbao v Sassuolo Pick: Group F of the Europa League is wide open, but Athletic Bilbao can put themselves in a very strong position to move through to the Last 32 if they can win this game. That place would be confirmed if Genk are also victorious in Match Day 5, but Athletic Bilbao will only be concentrating on the task in front of them.
Facing a Sassuolo team who have been conceding a huge amount of goals looks to have come at the right time for Athletic Bilbao. There will be some revenge on their minds after being beaten 3-0 in Italy on Match Day 1, but Athletic Bilbao do look in a better position now.
The reason you can't underestimate Sassuolo is that they have consistently shown they can score goals and that is why I am looking for at least three goals to be shared by these teams. While Sassuolo score goals, they have been conceding at an alarming rate and Athletic Bilbao are certainly the kind of team that can take advantage of that.
Sassuolo have conceded at least twice in their last 5 games in all competitions but they can play their part here to help this game hit at least three goals shared out.
Manchester United v Feyenoord Pick: The Europa League might not have been top priority for Manchester United fans in the summer, but Jose Mourinho wasn't as dismissive of the competition as some thought he might be. Strong teams have been picked in the Europa League by Mourinho and it would be a huge blow if Manchester United were to be knocked out in the Group.
That means they cannot begin to contemplate a defeat in this one, but Manchester United have won both games in the Group at Old Trafford and should be confident. Any similarity to the level of performance they have had in recent games at Old Trafford should result in Manchester United having enough chances to beat Feyenoord at home which will then mean Manchester United are a point away from going through to the Last 32.
There is no doubting that Manchester United have had enough chances to win many games in their games at Old Trafford since the loss to Manchester City back in September, but they have not been clinical enough. However they are hosting a team that simply isn't of the same level as what Manchester United see on a weekly basis and anything other than a home win would surprise me.
Feyenoord have to be respected as leaders of the Dutch Eredivisie, but they have had some more difficult moments of late. They have also lost 1-0 at Fenerbahce and drawn 1-1 at Zorya Luhansk in the Group away from home and I think a strong Manchester United team will be picked which could be tough for Feyenoord to deal with.
A loss doesn't end Feyenoord's chances of going through as they can beat Fenerbahce on Match Day 6 and go through regardless of the other result on Match Day 5. If they can frustrate Manchester United in the early part of this match there is a chance Feyenoord can set themselves up to be difficult to beat and look for a draw which would mean having complete control of their own destiny.
I am just not convinced they will be able to do that and am sure that Manchester United are going to start turning positive performances into positive results sooner rather than later. I am going to back Manchester United to record a big win on Thursday which can give them some momentum to take into the remaining two home games over the next week and I will take the home team to cover the Asian Handicap in this Group game.
Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: If things had gone better for these teams back in August, Roma and Viktoria Plzen could have been playing in the Champions League. Both teams were knocked out in the Qualifiers, but Roma look set to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League at least and can confirm that place with a victory on Thursday.
In fact a win on Thursday would be enough for Roma to win the Group and I think this is a team that can do that. It does have to be noted that Roma underachieve at home in European football far too often in recent seasons, and that was shown in their 3-3 draw with Austria Vienna despite Roma going into the final ten minutes with a 3-1 lead.
Roma simply don't win a lot of games here in Europe, certainly not for a club of this stature, although I am not convinced Viktoria Plzen take advantage. They haven't won at Austria Vienna or Astra in this Group and Viktoria Plzen were beaten 2-0 at Ludogorets in the Champions League Qualifiers while the pressure is on as they likely need to win this game to have a chance to extend their stay in Europe.
Pushing forward to get back into this game could see Roma pick Viktoria Plzen off as this game develops and I think Roma are going to win this game by a couple of goals. I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap at home and book their place in the Europa League Last 32 draw which takes place in a few weeks time.
MY PICKS: CSKA Moscow + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Monaco-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal-Paris Saint-Germain Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qabala-Anderlecht Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.86 Coral (2 Units)
Ajax - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celta Vigo-Standard Liege Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Krasnodar @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao-Sassuolo Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal-Paris Saint-Germain Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qabala-Anderlecht Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.86 Coral (2 Units)
Ajax - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celta Vigo-Standard Liege Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Krasnodar @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao-Sassuolo Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
November Update: 19-29-2, - 17.32 Units (97 Units Staked, - 17.86% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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