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Tuesday, 21 April 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (April 21st)

There are three tournaments taking place this week which means there is a lot of tennis scheduled for Tuesday as the majority of those events really get going.

I only had the one pick from Monday, which was a poor one on Victor Troicki, but hopefully Tuesday will be a better day.


Fernando Verdasco - 5.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Andrey Rublev is a 17 year old Russian who won the Junior French Open last year so has to be respected, especially as he has won two matches to qualify for the main draw in Barcelona. The clay courts might be his favoured surface at the moment, but Fernando Verdasco is a big test of his credentials and might have too much experience and power for Rublev to deal with.

Rublev has won a couple of main Tour matches on the hard courts in North America so he won't feel overawed after winning a couple of matches here. However, I think his second serve could be a big weakness against someone like Verdasco and he might be facing more break points than Rublev can eventually deal with.

A lot of this match is down to how Verdasco approaches things too- he can't come to the court and expect Rublev to roll over, while the uncertainty of what to expect can be a concern for players. Nevertheless, I think Verdasco has enough power to keep Rublev from getting too much rhythm in the match and I like the Spaniard to win this First Round match.

I am expecting it takes Verdasco a little time to get used to what Rublev is bringing to the court, but eventually he prevails 63, 63.


Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Nicolas Almagro has been knocked out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and it might get a little worse before a lot better for the Spaniard. He has to defend his Semi Final points from last season here in Barcelona and faces Rafael Nadal in the Second Round if he can beat Paolo Lorenzi.

This should be a match up that works for Almagro even if Lorenzi is very comfortable on the clay courts, but the one concern would be how the Spaniard is feeling as he continues his recovery after a long lay-off.

It's all about being mentally tough in the big moments and perhaps that is the hardest thing to recover when off the Tour for a long time. However, it shouldn't be a match up that will surprise Almagro and he has the better power on his side of the court which may allow him to dictate the tempo of the play.

Lorenzi can be awkward at times, but I like Almagro to come through with a 64, 62 win in this one.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Evgeniya Rodina: The tournament in Stuttgart brings some of the best players on the WTA Tour together as they get their clay court season truly underway so the biggest concern has to be the change in surface and perhaps being caught early on.

That is especially the case when you face a qualifier who has won three matches to get into the main draw as Evgeniya Rodina has- those wins will mean the conditions are no surprise to Rodina, while confidence is in a good place as it will be when putting a winning run together.

Rodina has also shown she is very strong on the clay courts, albeit at the level below the main Tour and she will give Carla Suarez Navarro plenty to think about. However, the Spaniard is playing with a lot of confidence herself having reached the Final in Miami and Quarter Final in Indian Wells last month and she is very comfortable on the clay courts.

The serve is less of a concern on the slower surfaces as Suarez Navarro will feel she can out-rally Rodina for much of the match and she is playing with the consistency and belief that has been built over the last couple of years. That has pushed Suarez Navarro into the top 10 of the World Rankings and I think she wears down Rodina in a 64, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

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