Tennis Picks 2015 (April 11th)

Weather permitting, the tournaments in Houston, Casablanca, Charleston and Katowice will be coming to a close this weekend and the ATP Tour can begin to focus on the first big event of the clay court season.

The draw for the tournament in Monte Carlo was made on Saturday morning and the drop in Rafael Nadal's Ranking does mean that he is Seeded for a Semi Final against Novak Djokovic. These two are the clear favourites to win the French Open at the end of May and matches between them will give each to put a phycological marker down on the other.

However, Nadal has failed to win in his last two appearances at Monte Carlo as his previous unblemished record on the clay courts have shown some chinks in the armour. The Spaniard also has a much tougher path through to the Semi Final with some dangerous players in his section.

Roger Federer is the Number 2 Seed in Monte Carlo next week and he is another that might have hoped for an easier introduction to life back on the clay courts. Stan Wawrinka, the winner here last season, is a potential Quarter Final opponent for Federer.

The Masters at Monte Carlo will begin on Monday with this weekend set for qualifying there.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Lucie Hradecka: Lucie Hradecka needs to be given credit for reaching the Semi Final here, but she really should have been knocked out by Caroline Garcia in the Third Round. She escaped through power and some big mistakes from her opponent, but the former element is going to be matched by Madison Keys who I feel is the much stronger player in this match.

There is no doubting that Madison Keys is destined for the top of the women's game and the natural replacement for Serena Williams as the top American player when the latter hangs up her racquet. Keys might not be most comfortable on the clay courts, but the one in Charleston is not playing like the slower European clay courts and that has helped Keys dominate all of her matches so far this week.

Keys is yet to lose more than four games in any of her three matches this week and while Lucie Hradecka needs to be respected for her comfortable win over Sara Errani, fatigue may also be a factor. Hradecka had to come through the qualifiers here so has had to play plenty of tennis, but that might have given her the confidence to come through some tough moments in the draw already.

I can't imagine there will be too many long rallies in this one, and it might be a case of first-strike tennis, but I think Keys has more about her game and I like her to reach the Final after a 63, 64 win.


Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: These two compatriots haven't met for four seasons, but it was Andrea Petkovic who won the last three matches between them and might be able to continue that run.

Andrea Petkovic has been in good form over the last couple of months and has openly talked about finally bringing her production in practice onto the competitive court. That has seen her pick up a title in Antwerp and reach a Quarter Final in Doha and Semi Final in Miami which will give her confidence to take into the clay court season.

It has been a very good week for Angelique Kerber too, but this is a rare highlight in the 2015 season which has been three months of disappointment to be brutally honest. It is the first time that Kerber has won back to back matches this season since Sydney before the Australian Open and confidence has to be in a much better place, although it can't be expected to be fully restored.

The week has been a tough one for Kerber, but battling through those matches will stand her in good stead over the remainder of the season. However, she is facing Petkovic in this Semi Final who has a real solid belief in where she is at and I think that makes the difference in this match. I think it will be tight with breaks of serve in both directions, but Petkovic can battle into the Final after a 63, 46, 75 win.


Jack Sock v Kevin Anderson: Both Jack Sock and Kevin Anderson had to twiddle their thumbs for hours waiting for the Houston thunderstorms to pass before booking their place in the Semi Final on Friday. Out of the two players, Kevin Anderson had to put in a much bigger emotional and physical effort to see of Jeremy Chardy in three sets and I do wonder if that has taken something out of the big South African.

The serve will remain a big weapon to get Kevin Anderson out of trouble and shorten the points to keep the physical strength up, but Jack Sock has been producing some impressive results since beginning his 2015 campaign.

Sock began his season at Indian Wells after injury and he reached the Fourth Round there before a Third Round appearance in Miami heading into this week. The American has produced some solid tennis to move through the draw here without too many concerns and he should give Anderson plenty to think about.

The backhand has always been the big weakness in the Sock game, but Anderson is much more likely to get involved in forehand to forehand rallies and that might suit the American. I do think the physical effort Anderson put in last night will play a part in this one and that is why I believe Sock, who has shown decent form, can win this as the underdog in three tight sets.


Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It might have been a late start for Sam Querrey on Friday, but he quickly got through the challenge of Feliciano Lopez and now takes on the defending Champion Fernando Verdasco in the second Semi Final in Houston.

It has been a very good week for Querrey so far, but it has to be said that Verdasco has been in very strong form and clearly is enjoying being the defending Champion here. The Spaniard has hit the ball very well off the ground and has been serving well and he will need to do both of those against Querrey if he is going to progress to the Final for the second year in a row.

Verdasco will have to continue to serve well if he is going to put Querrey under pressure because the latter's major weapon is his own serve and earning a cheap way through those games. The fear for Verdasco is throwing in a sloppy service game like he did in the win over Teymuraz Gabashvili, because it will be much harder to recover going a break down in this match.

The American does have the head to head advantage over Verdasco and he has played well this week, but I think the defending Champion is playing with a lot of confidence and can come through 76, 67, 64.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 0.96 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.36% Yield)