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Friday, 3 April 2015

Miami Tennis Picks 2015 (April 3rd)

The last few days have been a little frustrating with one step forward followed by two steps back and yesterday was no different after the first two picks came in to the winner's enclosure.

Unfortunately Novak Djokovic then had a very slow start in his win over David Ferrer despite going through a run of winning 7 games from 9 played.

Serena Williams then just put the fork in me after getting to the point of serving for the match, and the cover, but blowing the opportunity only to break two games later and move into the Final to be played this weekend.

Frustrating is the best way to put it, but it has still been a decent tournament for the picks after the poor effort at Indian Wells, although there are still four more matches to be played over the weekend that can change all that.

Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Mark Petchey put it best by saying that Tomas Berdych likes the match up that Andy Murray brings on the court, but the added factor of Dani Vallverdu being in Berdych's corner these days can play a part.

It didn't bother Murray at the Australian Open as he dismissed the Berdych challenge in the Semi Final fairly comfortably, but it is hard to ignore the fact that Murray has never beaten this opponent in four previous matches at Masters events.

The conditions in Miami might be better suited to Murray though and give him a chance to get a lot of balls back in play to extract errors from Berdych, although the British player has to serve better than he did in the early stages of his Quarter Final.

This does look like it has the making of a very closely contested match, but I think Murray enjoys Miami more than Berdych and has been playing the better tennis over the last week. A 76, 64 win for Murray looks like it could be on the cards in this one.

John Isner + 3.5 games v Novak Djokovic: There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic will go down as one of the best returners of all time, but there really isn't a lot he can do about John Isner's serve if the American is on form. He was yesterday in an impressive win over Kei Nishikori and Isner won't be intimidated by playing Djokovic in this Semi Final.

However, not being intimidated is fine, but Novak Djokovic is the World Number 1 and has found a way to get his teeth into Isner service games in past matches between these players. The slower conditions might not mean much for Djokovic if Isner serves well, but that is where the American will look to bring in the form from yesterday and try to challenge the serve with an effective return.

This is all about Isner serving well- if he can keep up a high number of first serves, I think Isner will at least keep this match competitive if not quite able to earn the shock win, but this number of games on the handicap could be too much to cover for Djokovic.

It might be a similar situation to Indian Wells when Djokovic came through 64, 76 against Isner and I will back the American with the games.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Miami Update: 24-19, + 5.64 Units (86 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)

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