Monte Carlo Tennis Picks 2015 (April 16th)

The big names all moved through to the Third Round at the Monte Carlo Masters on Wednesday and that means there are some top matches for the paying public to enjoy on Thursday. With the tournament completed in the next four days, that means all the top names on the ATP Tour are going to be out in force if they are to win the event.

While the tennis on the court didn't produce too many surprises, one story that did raise eyebrows was Rafael Nadal announcing that he had changed his frame in a bid to improve his form. That is a stunning time of the season for Nadal to make such a drastic change (just remember how long it took Roger Federer to feel comfortable when he went to a bigger racquet) and I do wonder if we won't see the best of the Spaniard until next season.

The other option may be to go back to the racquet that has won so many titles for Nadal in the past, but it was a complete surprise to me that he feels his game has dropped so dramatically that he needed to make a change of this magnitude. I was personally convinced it was more between the ears where Nadal's problems had manifested, but I am guessing he hasn't felt as comfortable on the court.

His Third Round match with John Isner is awkward to say the least, but the new frame makes it even more intriguing as the clay court season continues.


It was another disappointing day for the picks as they could only split the winners and losers, although it should have been better with Gael Monfils missing a number of chances to win his match against Alexandr Dolgopolov in more of a straight-forward way.


Grigor Dimitrov + 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The defending Champion Stan Wawrinka was in impressive form on Wednesday as he won his first match back at Monte Carlo, but the level of competition rises again as he meets Grigor Dimitrov in the opening match on the main court.

There has to be some confidence picked up by Dimitrov having beaten Fernando Verdasco and Fabio Fognini in his first two matches here and the latter win was very impressive as the Bulgarian served well and took his chances when they came.

It will need to be more of the same for Dimitov if he is going to beat Wawrinka who played so well for a lot of the win over Juan Monaco yesterday. The Swiss player has a clear advantage when it comes to the backhand battle, but I think Wawrinka has been playing a little up and down in recent weeks himself to think the confidence is fully restored after one win.

This looks like a match that will develop into a battle as both players are capable of purple patches but then coming off the boil to the extent of dropping sets they shouldn't. My feeling is that Dimitrov has picked up more from his two wins than Wawrinka might have this week and this has the making of  a three set match that could end up going either way.


Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Tommy Robredo: It wasn't a great performance from Milos Raonic in the First Round, but it was more than good enough to see off Joao Sousa in straight sets. Now the competition gets a little harder, but Raonic has proved too good for Tommy Robredo in previous matches including here in Monte Carlo last season.

That match ended in a routine two set win for Raonic and his serve does make it difficult for Robredo to get into the match. The Spaniard has a tendency to stand a little further back on the return of serve than necessary and that opens up the angles for Raonic as well as offering up plenty of short balls on the return which he tends to gobble up without too many difficulties.

Like Sousa, the Robredo serve is a little more than trying to get the rally started, especially on the clay courts, and that gives Raonic a chance to get his eye in and make a few returns that can lead to a break of serve. Robredo is also a little loose with his errors and that may offer the Canadian a chance to get into the match and find chances to break serve.

Raonic could only manage one break of serve on Wednesday, but that might be enough in this one to offer him a 63, 76 win for the second time in a row and help him cover the spread.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Gael Monfils: When these two last met, the Davis Cup Final was being played and Roger Federer was hammered by Gael Monfils in straight sets on the clay courts.

However, I think Monfils invested a lot into his Second Round win over Alexandr Dolgopolov and may be a little fatigued for this match. With the way Federer played against Jeremy Chardy to beat him 62, 61, you have to think that he will be too strong for Monfils.

A couple of things could make this closer- if Monfils isn't as tired as I think he might be and whether the Frenchman decides he will actually go for the big first serve that he possesses. It was surprising to see him fail to utilise that serve for much of the match with Dolgopolov, but anything cheap he can get off of Federer will be a boost to his chances.

It is a big spread of games, but if Monfils isn't mentally checked into the match, Federer is making strong starts to matches to put the pressure on his opponent and we may see more of the same on Thursday. Federer could have the control of this match and come through with a 63, 64 win after getting through a couple of sticky moments in the match.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Last year at the French Open, Tomas Berdych crushed Roberto Bautista Agut and I think he can record another victory against him in this Third Round match. Berdych had to really battle his way past Sergiy Stakhovsky, although he made life difficult for himself by not taking the break point chances that came his way and I think that match will stand him in good stead for the rest of the week.

Despite being from Spain, the feeling is that Roberto Bautista Agut is not at his happiest on the clay courts and I am not sure he has the power or aggression to really trouble Berdych.

The serve remains something of a weakness, although I do think Bautista Agut will give Berdych a few things to think about too. However, he has recently returned from Houston where he was beaten easily by eventual Champion Jack Sock and I do think the extra weight of shot coming from Berdych will be difficult to deal with.

He will have to be better than he was on Wednesday, but I do think Berdych has more to come and can earn a 64, 64 win in this one.


John Isner + 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This might look an incredibly foolish pick on Thursday evening, but backing John Isner with the games is my pick from this Third Round match. That is mainly going against Rafael Nadal and his change of equipment as I am not convinced he will have an easy time getting his timing right to return to John Isner serve.

I'd still expect Nadal to win this match on a clay court of course, but I can see him having a couple of issues with Isner that may take a little longer to resolve than the Spaniard may wish.

It is all down to whether Isner can serve effectively, while he has made it clear he doesn't mind the clay courts as he gets a little more time to wind up his shots on both on return and the second ball off return. Isner is also looking to get to the net and I can see him pushing Nadal into a tie-breaker in one set, while there is a chance that Isner can steal a set with good serving behind him.

Like I say, maybe the pick makes me look foolish if Nadal dominates from the outset, but I am not at all convinced that will happen and like the American with the games.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: The last two years have seen Marin Cilic really up the aggression when it comes to returning serve, but that timing and aggression may take time before it returns. That is because of the lay off that Cilic had to open this season and he struggled at times to really put the hammer down on Florian Mayer in the Second Round.

He now faces a confident Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has won back to back matches in Monte Carlo, the first time he has won consecutive matches anywhere on the Tour since the US Open last year. Tsonga has been serving well, but there is an element of his last two opponents giving him an easier time than they perhaps should have and I don't think Cilic will be as so charitable.

However, the lack of playing time for Cilic is an issue in itself and I think Tsonga has some momentum behind him. Both players have had success on clay in the past, but Tsonga has shown more consistent performances on this surface and I do think he can snap his two match losing run to the Croatian.

This match might come down to which of the players serve better on the day, but I think Tsonga's serve is a little more reliable and I like him to come through 76, 64.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 4-7, - 4.32 Units (20 Units Staked, - 21.60% Yield)