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Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Monte Carlo Tennis Picks 2015 (April 14th)

It was not a good start for the picks on Monday with both of my picks losing in pretty pathetic fashion. I do take the blame for those because I wasn't feeling comfortable about either and should really have taken heed of my own warnings and steered clear.

Fortunately it is early in the week and there is time to respond, although I am going to be more careful with my selections going forward than I feel I was on Monday.


Jan-Lennard Struff + 3.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: One is a Lucky Loser and one is a player recovering from a long injury lay off, but I like the former with the games to at least make this a competitive tennis match.

I am not convinced that Jan-Lennard Struff is suited to the clay courts, but he claims this is his favourite surface so the next couple of months will be important for him. To be honest, Struff should not have lost to Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the final qualifier for this event, but he is going to have to be a lot better if he is to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has had a surprising amount of success on the red dirt over the last few years.

The Struff first serve is a decent weapon, but he has not got that shot into play as much as he would like and the second serve has led to double faults and giving opponents a chance to get into matches. However, I don't think you can ignore the lack of playing time Tsonga has had this season and now has to deal with the change of surface having returned to the Tour in Miami.

Tsonga still has a big serve which will give him every chance to win this match, but I am hoping the lack of match tennis will give Struff every chance of keeping this close. If the German can serve well, he can steal a set in this match and it could be one of the longer matches of the day if Tsonga needs time to find his rhythm.


Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Having failed to defend his title in Houston last week, Fernando Verdasco has dropped down the Rankings and has to make sure he is ready to compete just three days after leaving the United States.

If he isn't too jet lagged, and the later start on Tuesday should help in that regard, he can give Grigor Dimitrov all he can handle with the latter lacking confidence after a poor opening three months of the season.

He might still be Number 11 in the World Rankings, but I think many people including Dimitrov would have expected him to make his move into the top ten but earlier than expected losses in tournaments are becoming a worrying trend for the Bulgarian.

Dimitrov is definitely not serving as well as he would expect and he will give Verdasco a chance, although I expect he will have success attacking the Spaniard's second serve if he sees a few of them early on. It just has the makings of a close match that Verdasco has every chance of winning if Dimitrov is still struggling mentally.

The Bulgarian has lost some really disappointing matches since the Australian Open with Gilles Muller, Tommy Robredo, Ryan Harrison and John Isner all pulling wins over him. Fernando Verdasco is more than capable of adding his name to that list, but I will take the games in hand as there is every chance that this goes deep into a third set before it is decided.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

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